Adam Khoo押注美股Q4续涨 称盈利激增令标普估值较年初更便宜

Adam Khoo押注美股Q4续涨 称盈利激增令标普估值更具吸引力 由于标普500聚合盈利预计激增32%大幅跑赢股价涨幅，当前远期市盈率已回落至19.1倍，叠加中期选举后最高达100%的历史胜率，美股四季度仍具充沛补涨空间。 Adam Khoo 在视频中全面复盘了自己的投资组合，阐述了网络安全与 AI 板块贡献的亮眼收益，并对 Nike、LVMH 等深度回撤标的进行了基本面恶化与宏观周期性的严格甄别。他详细拆解了由纯 AI 基建（17%）、科技巨头（26%）和抗泡沫蓝筹（57%）组成的“超级方舟”组合配置，以兼顾进攻弹性与防守缓冲。结合标普 500 当前 19.1 倍远期市盈率的合理估值，以及美股中期选举后 6 至 12 个月历史上涨胜率达 100% 的统计规律，他明确看多第四季度市场并强调坚持逢低波段建仓的纪律。 Adam Khoo 投资组合在前九个月录得 26.61% 的回报率，并在 2 月将联合账户中 99% 的资产转移至公司账户，以规避可能高达 40% 的美国遗产税风险。 (1:24) 网络安全板块成为今年最大收益来源，其中 Fortinet 暴涨 139%，CrowdStrike 上涨 121%，Palo Alto Networks 上涨 115%，核心持仓即使短期估值偏高也坚持一股不卖。 (2:43) 投资组合确立三大支柱架构：17% 配置于 AI 基础设施，26% 配置于兼具造血与 AI 能力的科技巨头，57% 配置于受益于 AI 降本增效的“反泡沫”传统蓝筹与网安资产。 (10:00) 标普 500 指数远期市盈率（Forward P/E）仅为 19.1 倍，低于 5 年均值的 19.8 倍；在预计全年企业聚合盈利增长 32% 而股价仅涨 14% 的背景下，四季度依然具备充足补涨空间。 (17:52) 自 1950 年以来的 19 次美国中期选举历史统计显示，大选后 3 个月美股上涨概率为 95%（平均涨幅 8.1%），6 个月和 12 个月后的上涨概率均高达 100%。 (20:00)

Adam Khoo 认为，标普 500 指数受企业盈利高增支撑目前估值合理，叠加美国中期选举后的历史高胜率，美股四季度仍具上行空间。他主张通过“纯 AI 基建、多元科技巨头与反泡沫压舱石”的三大仓位配置抵御周期波动，而非试图精准择时。 大盘估值消化与中期选举历史胜率 (17:52) Adam Khoo 指出，尽管标普 500 指数年内录得约 14% 的涨幅，但其远期市盈率（Forward P/E）仅为 19.1 倍，不仅持平于 10 年均值，更低于年初的 22 倍与 5 年均值的 19.8 倍。这表明标普 500 成分股一、二季度分别达 28% 与 38% 的同比盈利增速跑赢了股价涨幅，市场反而比年初更便宜。按全年聚合盈利约 32% 的预期测算，大盘仍具备补涨空间。 技术面上，标普 500 各周期均线（20EMA、40EMA、50SMA、150SMA、200SMA）均呈现标准多头排列。此外，自 1950 年以来的 19 次中期选举历史数据显示，大选日后 3 个月美股上涨概率为 95%（平均涨幅 8.1%），6 个月与 12 个月后的上涨概率均为 100%（平均涨幅分别为 16.0% 与 22.0%）。他据此认为无论党派归属如何，四季度至次年美股保持强势的确定性极高。 三大资金桶仓位模型与抗泡沫配置 (10:00) 为应对潜在的 AI 资本开支放缓或板块轮动，Adam Khoo 拒绝全面获利了结翻倍股，而是构建了比例清晰的“方舟”组合：纯 AI 基础设施占 17%，超大规模科技巨头（Hyperscalers）占 26%，反泡沫与网络安全板块占 57%。他认为占比过半的反泡沫板块（如摩根大通、标普全球、医疗及防务标的）虽然不直接参与基建军备竞赛，但能借助 AI 实现降本增效，在 AI 热潮一旦退潮时可作为承接避险资金的增长引擎。 他在第二板块中配置的 Alphabet、微软、亚马逊与 Meta 则被定义为平衡缓冲带。这类巨头狂砸资本开支的同时拥有广告、电商或云服务等强大的多元化现金流造血能力，若未来缩减基建投入，也能直接转化为自由现金流和净利润释放。 核心科技巨头估值测算与回踩买入纪律 (22:53) 在科技巨头配置上，Adam Khoo 坚持“不在拉升浪追买、等待回调至关键支撑并接近内在价值”的纪律。他将亚马逊列为头号重仓股，测算其内在价值为 233 美元，目前股价略微高估；微软内在价值测算为 570 美元，目前处于低估状态；Alphabet 股价在回踩至 374 美元内在价值下方后也已重新回到被低估区间。 对于重点关注的 Meta 和英伟达，他认为两者存在显著低估。Meta 在其采用 15% 增速上限的保守估值模型下内在价值达 900 美元（较市价低估约 17%），若按华尔街分析师一致预期测算其 DCF 价值可达 2000 美元；英伟达远期市盈率约 14 倍，DCF 模型测算其内在价值为 309 美元，较当前价格低估约 27%。 代理式 AI 崛起与产业链赢家输家分化 (25:00) Meta 最新消费级代理式 AI 应用 Muse 在美上线不到 30 天下载量突破 700 万次，渗透速度远超 ChatGPT 与 Gemini。Adam Khoo 分析指出，具备自主比价与订购能力的 AI Agent 普及，将对商业生态产生两极化影响：依赖传统网页横幅广告的平台（如 Pinterest、Snapchat、Reddit）以及缺乏壁垒的轻资产中介聚合商（如 TripAdvisor、Angi、Cars.com）和外包客服、自由职业平台将遭受重大冲击。 相反，提供底层算力基建的 NVIDIA、台积电、博通，掌握 Agent 平台与模型的巨头 Meta、微软、Alphabet，以及 Visa、Mastercard、Shopify、沃尔玛等具备底层支付网络和直接履约能力的平台将成为核心赢家。拥有海量算力与物流底座的亚马逊等巨头，虽然搜索广告可能受到波及，但能通过 AWS 和履约服务获得对冲。 弱势资产应对逻辑与仓位控制 (4:30) 针对组合中回撤明显的标的（如 Nike 下跌 43%、LVMH 下跌 41%、Copart 下跌 32%、Booking 下跌 26% 等），Adam Khoo 建立了二元应对框架：首先将单票仓位控制在安全线内（如 Nike 仓位不足 0.5%）；其次区分是情绪扰动还是基本面恶化。Booking 属于基本面稳健、仅因市场担忧 Meta Agent 分流而受情绪压制的标的，且前期已获利了结半数筹码，因此继续持有。 面对财务数据下滑的企业，他进一步界定其属于宏观周期还是结构性危机。LVMH、Copart 和 Pool 的滑坡被评估为高利率与阶段性消费低谷所致，护城河未受损，因此策略是维持现有仓位、暂不盲目补仓。对于战略失误的 Nike，新 CEO 虽带动专业运动线重回两位数增长，但生活方式系列体量庞大且修复耗时较长，同样维持按兵不动、等待营收与利润重回增长标准。 Adam Khoo 强调其策略立足于长期持有与估值安全边际，而非精准预测回调节点。尽管历史统计与估值指标支持其看多四季度的观点，但代理式 AI 对特定平台商业模式的侵蚀速度、Nike 等逆境企业的重组周期，以及未来 AI 资本支出见顶的时点仍是不确定变量。

[10:00] Adam Khoo: Try to sell high and buy back low, sometimes you can't get back in before it runs off without you. [22:53] Adam Khoo: I never buy after a wave up. I always buy after a wave down because after wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down. [0:00] Adam Khoo: And if I die suddenly, personal account is subjected to 40% estate tax by the US authorities, but if I put it under a company account, there's no concern with any estate tax risk.

[0:00] Alright, hi guys. So it's been quite a while since my last video and the reason is because I've been very preoccupied writing my latest book as all of you know. It's been 13 years since I wrote my last book, Winning the Game of Stocks. And for some reason, I had this inspiration that I need to write my last book. And people around me were against the idea. They said, "No one reads books anymore. Why are you going to waste your time?" But I felt that I had to do it because since I wrote my last book 13 years ago to now, my investment methodology, my insights have, changed a lot. I've learned so much. I have evolved so much as an investor that it's something that I really want to share and so I've been spending about 9-10 hours a day every day writing and writing and writing and the manuscript is almost done. It's 18 chapters, almost 340 pages but we are looking to hopefully launch it by early next year. So anyway, that's the reason why I've been I've been getting a lot of emails saying, and then what's happening in the markets, what opportunities are out there, and what are you doing in the next three months for the rest of the year? What do you expect in the market? So I thought I'll put together this very quick video. to just share with you some of my thoughts. Okay. So first of all, year to date for the first nine months, in full transparency, I can share with you how my portfolio is doing. For those of you in my community in UIP, you see this every single day, and you get my monthly portfolio updates in detail. So year to date, my portfolio is up 26.61%. and I've mentioned this many times, that I've been managing my money in my joint account with my wife, for the longest time this is the last eight years of performance in blue versus the S&P500. And what I did was in February this year, you can see I withdrew 99% of my funds and put it into a corporate account and that's why I can see the funding was in February And the main reason is because I'm getting old. And if I die suddenly, Personal account is subjected to 40% estate tax by the US, authorities, but if I put it under a company account, there's no concern with any estate tax risk. So that's the main reason I put that off. You can see over the last 8 years, performing about 290%, way above the S&P 500 of 200%, and this year, year to date, way outperforming the S&P and the NASDAQ as well. So where are my gains coming from? You can see year to date, my biggest contributor of my performance would be, interestingly, the cybersecurity companies, which I own. I've mentioned many times that In the long run, I think cybersecurity is a very, very strong secular Investment theme. Because... you know with advanced AI and hacking, all companies need advanced cyber security. So this is a very very strong sector that I think will do really well. So I've been buying up a lot of cyber security stocks and holding them for the long run, right? So here today, my top performer is actually Fortinet. up 139%, followed by CrowdStrike, 121%, and Palo Alto up 115%. So my three strongest stocks are in cybersecurity. And that is not something I... actually anticipated this year. I thought yeah, cybersecurity will be really strong, but I didn't know this year will be that strong. Okay? And then followed by a lot of the still the AI capex Stocks like SOXX that contains many of the AI infrastructure companies up 80%, ASML up 57%, And interestingly, Viva Systems, one of the software companies that got whacked by the Saspocalypse, up 35%. And then iPo up 28%. This is an AI energy and infrastructure stock. Apple up 26%, interestingly. Apple was laughed at at the start of the year by not being involved in building any AI at all and they are up 26%. Nvidia up 22% and Palantir up 18%. But what about the stocks that have been underperforming in my portfolio? Nike, of course. So Nike has been a bit disappointing, down 43% year to date. But the important thing is about allocation. So those of you who are in my community know that Nike is is less than 0.5% of my portfolio. So even if it drops... 100%, it hardly affects me, right? Whereas these guys, I've got [5:00] it. allocations to them. So Nike down 43%, LVMH down 41%, Copart down 32%, pool down 28% and booking down 26%. Now whenever I've got a stock that underperforms in the portfolio or it has declined a lot, do I sell it? Do I cut loss on it? It depends. So the first question I ask is that why did it drop? Did it drop purely because of sentiment? and the fundamentals are doing great or are the fundamentals declining? That's the first question I ask and the answer to that question is that for all these stocks here the fundamentals have declined. okay except booking so booking is one where the fundamentals have not declined fundamentals are actually doing very well but the share price has fallen this year purely because of concern that consumer agents like Matters Mules that was just launched may disrupt its business model. Now having said that those of you who are in my community, you know that booking is something where I bought during COVID at near the bottom, so I'm actually up significantly on booking. I've got huge profits on booking, my cost is very low. And in fact, I sold half my booking early at the high when it was overvalued. and what's left of my booking is just a very small half, of which I'm still very profitable. So I'm not selling booking because number one, it's very profitable, it's a great company, and it's down. for sentimental, not sentimental, but sentiment reasons and not fundamentals, okay? Now, for the rest of these companies, their fundamentals have declined. In other words, their revenues have dropped, the profits have dropped. they no longer pass my investment criteria. So, do I sell them? Then I ask the next question. Okay, so the revenues have dropped, the profits have dropped. Is it Temporary? Is it fixable? Or is it something that's long-term structural? because they have kind of like their economic mode has deteriorated or it's going to take too long to fix or they may not fix it? That's the next question I ask. So if it is something that I find it is fixable, it is short and cyclical. I hold it, I don't add more shares, but I hold the position. And if you look at LVMH, You look at co-part, you look at pool, revenues drop, profits drop. To me, it's a short term cyclical issue, because of short term macro issues, right? But over time, once the cycle shifts, their revenues will grow again, profits will grow again and they will come back very strongly because their core economic mode is still there. Now for Nike, this one is a bit tricky. Nike, I've talked a lot about it in my past videos. If you look at Nike, I think it is... It is fixable. The business is fixable. but it's taking longer than everyone expected. you know and I think you'll take at least a year or two before the issues can be fixed. Now, as you know, the old CEO screwed up the company. I've talked about before. The new CEO has come in and people are wondering, okay, is he doing anything? Yes, he has. If you look at their last earnings report, the areas which the new CEO focused on are actually doing very well. They have actually started growing double digits. For example, look at Nike, their performance business. their performance shoes like running, like football, like tennis, they are actually growing double digits. Okay, however, the entire Nike is still going down because they are put down by their lifestyle division which is the non athletic sports division. That's still pulling out of business. So the next stage is that the new CEO, Elliot Hill, is focusing on growing that part of the business. So in other words, Nike, I think it's fixable. but it's gonna take longer than I expected. Am I adding more shares? No, I'm not. So all these positions that you see, Nike, LVMH and Poole, I'm not adding more, Until I see... that they pass the criteria again, revenues must grow again, profits must grow again, right? So that's to give you a bit of insight there. And then the other question will be Adam your 40 net, your CrowdStrike, your Palo Alto, it's up significantly. In fact, It's up. quite a bit from my cost price. And in fact, they are all overvalued now. Do I sell? Do I sell these stocks because they're overvalued? Because they're up to 300% above my cost price? Nope. Why? Because, um... although they are overvalued in the short term and yes when they're overvalued the price may drop temporarily But I'm not selling because over the longer term, in the next 3-5 years, I think they're going to double and triple and quadruple even more in the long run. And the concern always is you know, [10:00] Try to sell high and buy back low, sometimes you can't get back in before it runs off without you. So these are companies that I want to hold for the long run, I'm not selling them, okay? Now, I thought it's also interesting to share this with you guys. Now, if you recall in, was it July? I had my mid-year event called the Anti-Bubble Mania. Remember that? So I said that if you look at the market, There are certain parts of the market that are in a bubble, that are very overpriced, like space stocks, which have come crashing down, right? Quantum stocks have come crashing down. What else? Memory stocks has come down quite a bit. So the bubble stocks have already started deflating, if you guys recall. And I said that there are a lot of stocks that have been disregarded, ignored, but are doing very well. And they are disregarded because they've got nothing to do with AI. They are the anti-bubble stocks, if you recall, right? So when I told you that I was actually buying up a lot of the anti-bubble stocks, that have got nothing to do with AI because once the AI CapEx growth slows which it has not then the money will flow into the anti-bubble stocks. but no one knows when the AI CapEx growth will slow because it's still growing. It could go on for the next one, two, three years, right? So like I said, you've got to have one foot in the AI trade but another foot in the anti-bubble trade And that's what I'm doing. So currently you can see that if you look at the stocks in my portfolio, I divide them into three main buckets. The first bucket, are the stocks I own that are directly involved in building the AI infrastructure. These are stocks like Nvidia, esml.com as well as ETFs like SOXX and AIPO. So these are so called the AI This is directly the AI trade, okay? But notice I don't own those which are overpriced. These are the ones that are undervalued or fairly priced. So they make up about 17% of my portfolio. Okay. The second bucket... of my stocks are the hyperscalers. Hyperscalers are your Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta. Now if you look at hyperscalers, a part of their business is focused on building the AI CapEx, building data centers, right? But not all their business. Another part of their business, they make money in other ways. Like for Matter and Google, they make money in advertising. And of course now, MEDA is going into consumer AI agents, they're going to hardware like MEDA glasses, okay? You've got Amazon that makes money in advertising, in e-commerce, in logistics. So the hyperscalers, they have got many, many revenue streams. So when the AI capex, growth slows which will take the biggest hit. the biggest hit will be here right these guys will all drop the most once the AI excitement slows down. Okay, now how will this be affected? Well, part of their business may be affected, but The other part may do very well, because when people start to think, okay, if they're spending less on capex, If Microsoft met Amazon spending less on CapEx, That means their profits are gonna come back. So they could actually do very well, they could do very well, If the AI uh capex growth slows or they may not. So this is kind of like a 50/50 because they've got one foot in AI and one foot out of the AI CapEx buildup, okay? Then the third bucket is the anti-bubble. So these have nothing to do with AI. These IOP Well, I wouldn't say nothing to do. They've got nothing to do with building AI. but they benefit from AI. So for example, you look at your banks like JP Morgan, you look at companies like S&P Global, or insurance companies, they will benefit from AI, because AI increases productivity, lowers their cost, increases their profit margins. Um... and cybersecurity benefits from AI as well, but it's not building AI, all right? So these are the anti-bubble stocks. So notice in my portfolio right now, how I have balanced my portfolio. So roughly I've got 17% of my stocks purely in building AI. 26% into hyperscalers that are very diversified and 57%, the majority of my stocks have nothing to do with building AI, but they benefit from AI. These are the anti-bubble and the cybersecurity stocks. Thank you. [15:00] - I feel very comfortable with this balance, why? Because as the AI, excitement continues this will continue to push my portfolio up, which is what's happening this year. So you can see that this year, my AI CapEx stocks are providing the biggest return. So this powering my portfolio, right? And the hyperscalers are also powering the portfolio. And my anti-bubble, is not beating the market, but it is still contributing Okay, alright? now once the AI capex growth slows or they call it the AI bubble burst which again no one knows when it could be next year it could be three years from, no one knows, right? But when that happens, what's gonna happen is, this is gonna drop a lot, By that time, it could be a lot higher in price. This is gonna be like, maybe go sideways a bit. It may even go up a bit. But this, this one is going to hallelujah. And this will then be the engine of my portfolio that would help to cushion This that will go down. So, notice the way I invest. I never attempt to predict the market. I'm not so arrogant to think, oh, I can predict exactly when the bubble will burst. I can predict where the market goes. No. And people who tell you they can predict exactly when it's going to happen, They are either delusional or the other An idiot, okay, no one can do that, right? So my analogy is this, instead of trying to predict when the storm will come or when the flood will come, I don't try to. I just make sure that I build the strongest arc I can ever build. So whenever the storm comes or the rain comes, everyone gets flooded to death, but I will survive and I will prosper, swimming or not swimming sorry but floating on the waves. Showing you a glimpse of the portfolio like I said my biggest gainers are Fortinet you can see Fortinet up there up 212% I've got a Palo Alto up 148% CrowdStrike up 217% and of course the hyperscalers contributing quite well Amazon up 119%, Alphabet Google up 221%, NVIDIA up 209%, you know matter up 114% and Microsoft up 67%. And some of my other anti-bubble stocks like healthcare, right, UnitedHealth up 26%, goes up a lot more, but it's retraced a bit. I'm gonna be adding more to UnitedHealth. HC, healthcare up 32%. and Global X Defense up 17% just to name a few. So where are we going for the rest of the year? As always, no one can predict for sure, but if you look at the technicals and fundamentals, the probability is that the market will go a lot higher by the end of the year. Why? Number one, let's take a look at the technical analysis. So based on technicals, you can see the market is on a very, very nice uptrend, continues to be on an uptrend, where the 20 EMA, the red dotted line is above the 40 EMA, So the short term trend is upwards. You've got the 50 simple moving average in blue, above the 150 simple moving average, that's sloping upwards. And you've got a 200 simple moving average sloping upwards. So all the moving averages are sloping upwards, they're in the right sequence, we're on a very, very, clear uptrend and of course you can see the ways on the uptrend wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up and the trend will continue. So technical say trend is up. Okay, next question is if you look at the overall market, is it expensive? No, in fact, the market is cheaper today than it was at the start of the year. How can this be? Well, it be, you can look at the forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 now, as of 12 October, the current P/E ratio, forward P/E is 19.1 times. and it is currently below the five year average of 19.8, and equal to the 10 year average of 19.1. So in other words, the market is not expensive, It is not cheap, it is actually fairly priced. If you look at where we were at the start of the year, the forward PE was 22 times. and now it's 19.1 and that's why I say the market is cheaper now than it was at the start of the year. So how can it be? The S&P has gone up 14% in price, how can it be cheaper? Because the earnings have gone up more than the price. Quarter one earnings went up 28%. Quarter two earnings went up 38%. Quarter three, quarter four, not out yet. But the forecast for the full year is [20:00] the S&P 500 aggregate earnings will grow about 32%. So if the earnings are growing 32%, but the share price is up only 14% So the share price has still got quite a bit more room to run in order to justify the earnings growth this year. So like I said, don't be surprised if the next three months, the market can go up another 5 to 10%. Again, no one can predict for sure, but don't be surprised if it happens. At the same time, remember that this year are the US midterm election years, and historically, the US midterm election from November to next year is one of the most bullish periods of stock market history. Now let's take a look at history. and you can see what I'm talking about. Since the 19 since 1950, these are all the midterm election years 1950, 1954, 1958 all together 19 midterm election years. So what happened from November which is going to come up really soon. The midterm elections will be 4th of November, which will be next month on the 4th, right? So coming really soon. So what happens from there to three months later, which would be December, January, February, February next year. What happens six months later? What happens 12 months later? So historically you can see what happens from November onwards is that three months later, the market has been up 95% of all past midterm year since 1950, right? And the average gain of the market 8.1%, median gain 8.6%. How about six months later? six months after November elections, market is up 100% of the time. with an average gain of 16%, median gain of 14%, And what happens 12 months after the midterm elections, the market is up 100% of the time, based on the last 19 occurrences. Average gain 22%, median gain 23%. So if history repeats this year, there's a 100% chance the market will be higher six months, nine months from November, and a 95% chance you'll be higher three months from November. Regardless of which party wins, the Senate and the House. Now, how about individual stocks? Can they go higher for this year and for next year? Again, no one can predict for sure. The only thing I can look at is number one, what's the trend? Is it on an uptrend or is it on a downtrend? Number two, is it still undervalued or is it way overvalued? So let's take a look at some of the stocks and let's start with the hyperscalers. which is in bucket number two. So first hyperscaler, which is in fact my biggest position, I've said many times before that, if you were to put a gun to my head and say, Adam, You have to put your entire family's net worth into one stock. What would it be? it would be Amazon because it is the most diversified with the most profit margin expansion potential once they fully deploy AI and robotics. So if you look at Amazon, where are we right now? So you can see Amazon is clearly on this very nice uptrend over there. on an uptrend wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down and the pattern will just continue. These are looking at the weekly candles. Overvalue, it is slightly overvalued. The intrinsic value is $233. So it is slightly overpriced, not way overpriced. So it should continue to continue to trend up. But again, the discipline is that, if I wanted to buy more shares, I won't, until it waves down nearer to the intrinsic value or below the intrinsic value. You can see these are what I call the support levels. where I will add shares. If it retraces here, I add here. Retrace, I will add. Retrace, I'll add. So these are levels where the price, after it waves down, it tends to reverse up because these are significant significant technical support levels. Okay? So that's Amazon slightly overvalued. If you look at Microsoft, where's Microsoft right now? Microsoft is undervalued. Intrinsic value is 570. It is undervalued, but would I buy right here? No, why? Again, I never buy after a wave up. I always buy after a wave down because after wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down. So you can see here, you've got wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down, wave up, going towards intrinsic value. It's still on the value, but usually I like to add on a pullback near to a support level. So next I can show you would be What's the other one? Yeah, Google, right? Alphabet. [25:00] and alphabet has been, oh alphabet is undervalued right now, right? It was overvalued. and then it's come back below the intrinsic value, of 374 and you can see nicely wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down, wave up. It's kind of like consolidating and would probably push higher in the next couple of weeks. So this is okay, it's undervalued, and it's not exactly at the support level. In fact, it bounced off the support. and it could be launching back above that. But again, no guarantees. We're just looking at trend, we're looking at intrinsic value. On the other hand, I think that the hyperscaler that has got the most potential short term upside and of course long term upside as well is actually matter platforms that owns Facebook and WhatsApp. And the reason is because of number one, they launched their Muse app that has become the most popular downloaded app in the US right now. It's not available outside the US. In fact, it's number one on the Google Play Store, and number one on Um... Apple App Store. In fact, it's been very impressive. You can see that the Muse app has hit 7 million downloads in less than 30 days. Now, if you compare it to ChatGPT, ChatGPT hits 7 million downloads only... after 75 days Grok took about Grog took about 165 days and Gemini the standalone app it took 180 days to hit 3 million downloads but Muse is So far, the fastest... Views. app right so what is Muse Muse is the consumer agentic AI app that people now can use to do shopping for them to book hotels book airlines for them can send emails for them and stuff like that so it's becoming really popular and really looking forward to to it coming to Singapore and the rest of the world. And of course, Mata has launched a whole series of new hardware, those of their Mata glasses. Meta is kind of like pivoting to become the next Apple, if you ask me. And I think it's very possible that they could actually pull it off. now Very soon after Meta launched Mews, ChatGPT has launched DOTS, which is their version of the consumer AI agent. And you can see that in the near future, we will all have our own AI agents that will help us to go out there and to buy stuff, to compare prices, book hotels, book airlines, buy books, send emails, you'll do everything for us. And the question is, what is the implication to other businesses where instead of a human being going to Amazon, a human being going to Agoda, Now agents are going to go on our behalf and to make these purchases what's the implication of course there could be some negative implications on certain stocks and some positive implications. So here's a very quick overview about the winners and losers of the new consumer AI agent revolution, which I think Meta has just launched, okay? So first of all, a negative impact. Which websites would be the most negatively impacted or potentially would be interestingly, ad-funded search marketplaces. Why? Because now a human being goes to Amazon and they see ads, right? And that's how, Amazon gets paid through the advertisements. But if human beings don't go to Amazon anymore, but it's all these agents, these AI agents, then these ads become worthless. So could it hit Amazon's ad advertising business? Yes, it could, right? Now, am I concerned? Because Amazon is my biggest position, Not really, because again, Amazon is so diversified. Yeah, maybe they could lose a bit on the advertising side, but remember that, their cloud business will benefit significantly from agentic AI. So will their e-commerce, so will their logistics. So it's kind of like they lose one, but they make on the other three or four. So overall, I don't think it's gonna be negative, right? Although that part of the business may be affected. How about Google search? Could Google search be affected as well? Possibly, potentially. Their advertising business could take a hit, but again, they are diversified. They have got their cloud business and a lot of other stuff, right? But if you look at, specific companies like Pinterest or those that are not so diversified, they could be hit by really badly like Snapchat or Pinterest or even Reddit. So I wouldn't touch those that are not as diversified and as dominant. The other type of companies that could get hit potentially, again it's not a guarantee, you can't tell the future, would be any kind of middleman in the market. So that's why booking got hit, right? But... but booking still owns a lot [30:00] inventory where the agent still has to go through booking in order to get the discounted inventory. So booking still retains that moat but other players that may not have their moat or resources could get hit a lot worse like for example a TripAdvisor or Engie or Cars.com and then of course companies like call centers outsource support like some of these sticker symbols could be affected negatively as well and of course like Upwork, Fiverr, it's all disrupted, because why would you need them when you can get AI agents to do all this work for you? But on the other hand, these are the stocks that could be positively impacted in an a consumer AI agentic world like for example your agent platforms and models Matter, Microsoft, and Alphabet. So you can see again, Google gets hit on advertising, but they benefit on cloud and their agentic platform. So that's why they're very well diversified. Payment rails like Visa, MasterCard, PayPal, but PayPal has got other problems, so I wouldn't touch it, right? And Shopify, open commerce merchants, like Walmart again Shopify and some of the other ones. And of course, compute and infrastructure. Who will benefit a lot? Your Nvidia. Okay, your Broadcom, your TSM. Why? Because you need a lot more of compute power to run these AI agents. which comes to my last part, how about the AI infrastructure companies. Are they still attractively priced? I think some of them still are. I'm still holding some of them. So of course, the granddaddy of them all is NVIDIA. And of course, once we go to physical AI which is robotics, NVIDIA has got a very powerful role to play in that as well in training the robotics, training robots right. So if you look at NVIDIA, what's the intrinsic value? Oh. I forgot to mention MEDA. Let's go back to MEDA again, sorry. I was too carried away. I skipped MEDA. So like I said, I think MEDA has got one of the biggest upside potential because number one, it is quite undervalued. If you take a look at the intrinsic value of MEDA, you can see that Let me just log in here. Thank you. So currently, MEDA is still 17% undervalued based on the $900 intrinsic value. So it's still undervalued. But again, bear in mind that this $900 intrinsic value, which is from Oracle value, is a very conservative estimate. Very conservative, right? But if you take the actual discounted cash flow, based on fact sets, uh... consensus estimates, consensus analyst estimates, which is 18% growth in the next five years. and long term growth in 18% 3 to 5 year growth and 24% logarithm growth then you're looking at an intrinsic value of $2,000. or netter, 2000, right? Which is double the price today, or based on a discounted free cash flow terminal, 1,300. So again, this is the evaluation if you take these growth rates from fact set at face value. But... because Oracle value is being conservative, it applies a ceiling to the growth rate of 15%, not more. So it reduces the valuation to $900. of which it is still 17% undervalued. Now again, having said that, doesn't mean that matter can't go down in the short term, because in the short term, prices are driven by, you know, manipulation and emotions, but what I'm saying is that it's worth at least 900 bucks. That's what I'm saying, right? Which you will get there, I don't know when, maybe next week, maybe next year, maybe end of the year, I don't know, right? But it's worth $900. And if you look at the... The price action, you can see It's been in a bit of a consolidation here. primarily because of the social media addiction case that has been weighing down, but now that everything's being resolved and they just launched a new AI frontier model, it could see a breakout and we could see huge upside for meta platforms. So this is one of my bigger positions as well. Finally, let me talk about NVIDIA, which like I said, is the granddaddy of AI infrastructure. Is it I don't think so, in fact if you look at NVIDIA over here. You may be surprised to know that on many measures, it is still undervalued. Okay, so the intrinsic value is $309. Now it's to do for it. 27% undervalued. [35:00] and this is based on a discounted cash flow model. If you look at the PE ratio, the forward PE is only 14 times earnings. I mean, just look at 4PE, it looks really cheap, right? You click on intrinsic value over here. You can see that no matter what method you use to value NVIDIA, the share price is way below all the different valuation methods. It's been a long video, but in summary, what's my game plan for quarter four is to stay invested in my three buckets. Bucket number one, AR infrastructure like NVIDIA, like Broadcom, like SOXX. and of course the ones I own are not overvalued. In fact, if anything like NVIDIA is undervalued. The second bucket, would be the hyperscalers, which I mentioned Microsoft and and Google and Meta, which I think has got the most upside right now because of their Muse Agent and the launch of a lot of their new AI frontier models. And the third bucket, which is the anti-bubble bucket, which has done pretty okay this year, although it's not been the top performer of my portfolio. But once AI growth slows down, it's going to rotate into that. And finally, like I showed you, being a midterm election year, statistically there's a 95% chance the market will be higher three months after November and a 100% chance is going to be higher six months and 12 months from November. And those are pretty good odds that I like to be invested with. Thank you for listening and as always, may the markets be with you. If you wanna catch my latest videos, click on the subscribe button right now. Click on the bell so you get instant notifications once I upload my latest video. If you wanna check out my online courses, go to piranaprofits.com, We're gonna learn how to invest and how to trade the financial markets and create an income from all around the world. If you want to join my live Wealth Academy program, go on to wealthacademyglobal.com and find out more about how you can learn investing and trading live This is Adam Kuh and may the markets be with you.