美债收益率见顶触发美股大轮动 资金自半导体转向非科技资产

美债收益率见顶触发美股大轮动 资金自半导体流向非科技资产 美债利率回落正在激活长期受压的消费与地产标的，但超大规模云厂商逾万亿美元的算力支出并未松动，投资者应在组合多元化之际逢低布局被恐慌误伤的芯片与软件龙头。 主讲人结合自身账户表现指出，随着美债收益率显现见顶回落迹象，市场正上演极端的板块轮动，资金大幅流向受降息利好的优质消费与金融成长股（如CAKE、RH、SoFi和Nike）。在核心科技领域，视频深入引用Brad Gerstner与Josh Brown等业内专家的访谈，指出前沿大模型惊人的营收爆发与云巨头万亿美元资本支出并未动摇AI算力基本盘，且适度的估值消化有效防范了泡沫风险。主讲人预判被严重误读的AMD将在万圣节前后重拾升势，并建议投资者严控杠杆、保持多元化资产配置，在科技股深幅回调时逢低布局以穿越周期。 博主公开实盘单日强劲反弹7.5万美元，总资产回升至520万美元逼近历史新高，分散配置有效抵御了核心重仓股AMD单日2.2万美元的回调波动。 (0:00) 美债收益率阶段性见顶回落，推动非科技高贝塔标的与房贷敏感资产报复性反弹，Revolve、ELF大涨超7%，RH与SoFi涨逾6%。 (6:31) 科技投资人Brad Gerstner披露前沿AI变现超预期，Anthropic年化营收预期突破千亿美元，OpenAI达约500亿美元，有效支撑超大规模云厂商逾1万亿美元的资本开支。 (15:42) 华尔街与Fundstrat分析师指出美股迎来历史级大轮动，资金从芯片算力流向医疗保健与非科技低估值标的，但长线资金仍应在科技股深度回调时逢低布局。 (30:46)

本期节目探讨了美股市场正在发生的大轮动格局：随着美债收益率显现见顶信号，资金正从高度拥挤的科技股向低估值传统赛道扩散；与此同时，前沿AI实验室的爆发式变现支撑着云厂商资本开支，但算力链条内部的债务分化与被动投资的高集中度也放大了市场的潜在脆弱性。 利率见顶与资金外溢催生大轮动 (6:31) Josh Brown指出，5年期与10年期美债收益率呈现“盛极而衰”的见顶走势。此前利率上行的主因并非通胀失控，而是数据中心及AI建设推动企业泛滥发债，进而对国债产生了“反向挤出效应”。随着大型发债潮暂缓及国债收益率回落，非AI板块迎来了广泛上涨，涵盖医疗保健、必需消费与房地产等赛道。 技术策略师Mark Newton与主讲人均指出，市场正处于极端的板块轮动之中，投资者应保持资产配置的多元化。主讲人分析，若美国经济处于通胀降温的良性降息通道，10年期美债收益率下行将带动30年期房贷利率回落，从而盘活冻结的住宅房地产市场，并推动RH、SoFi等对利率高度敏感的高贝塔消费与金融股在估值修复中实现业绩反弹。 AI商业化验证与第二阶段软件赋能 (15:42) 科技投资人Brad Gerstner与主讲人针对“AI变现能否支撑数万亿资本开支（CapEx）”的质疑指出，终端前沿大模型的营收正以科技史上未有的斜率增长。Anthropic的年化营收预期已冲向千亿美元量级，成立仅四年的OpenAI年化营收亦达约500亿美元，这为上游算力采购与芯片扩张提供了现金流反哺。此外，英伟达远期市盈率维持在22倍左右，美光远期市盈率仅4至5倍，市场持续的审慎态度在客观上遏制了非理性泡沫的形成。 与会嘉宾认为，AI投资正迈入“第二阶段”，即聚光灯从底层算力基础设施向企业级应用与降本增效倾斜。例如美国银行通过部署AI预计自明年起每年节省7亿美元成本；下游的SaaS平台如ServiceNow和Salesforce若能实现AI赋能后的营收加速，将推动市场牛市主线向更广泛的软件生态延伸。 算力债务分化与被动投资脆弱性 (23:25) Stephanie Link与Malcolm分析认为，Meta、Google、Amazon及微软等超大规模云厂商在未来12个月内超1万亿美元的AI资本支出依然牢固，过早看空芯片产业链脱离了现实。然而在高利率环境下，算力企业呈现出尖锐的资产负债表分化：负债高达500亿美元的CoreWeave与1670亿美元的甲骨文（Oracle）正承受沉重财务压力，而具备强劲自由现金流的英伟达、博通与美光则遭遇了恐慌情绪的误伤。 与此同时，大盘被动投资的高度捆绑加剧了市场结构性风险。许多配置了标普500指数基金的普通投资者，其科技股敞口实际已超45%。市场上机构与散户的频繁切换如同全员涌向单侧的“观鲸船效应”，一旦底层算力服务商释放投资回报率（ROI）不及预期的信号，极易通过指数基金与ETF的被动抛盘引发滚雪球式的下行连锁反应。 逆向个股择时与穿越周期法则 (3:09) 面对大盘动荡，主讲人主张通过严苛的财务估值模型寻找非对称赔率，坚决避免在个股高位追涨，并严控杠杆与重仓期权以确保在下行周期中保全本金。其公开账户正是依靠多资产分散配置，在权重股AMD单日浮亏的情况下全天净值依然录得增长。 在个股研判上，主讲人认为芝士蛋糕工厂（CAKE）凭借主品牌充沛的现金流与North Italia等新兴品牌的扩张，估值中枢正从过去的12-15倍永久跃升至20-28倍（远低于同业Cava的59倍）；半导体权重股AMD虽陷入阶段性回调，但历史经验表明深跌往往是建仓良机，主讲人预计其将在万圣节前后重回主升浪；此外，底部反弹的耐克、SoFi以及能量饮料Celsius均被其视作未来具备极佳风险收益比的标的。 总体而言，美国宏观经济韧性与超大规模云厂商的资本开支为市场提供了短期支撑，但随着利率见顶驱动资金流向非科技板块，投资者需警惕高杠杆AI算力公司的债务承压风险，以及被动指数过度集中所带来的潜在波动。

[15:42] Brad Gerstner: The number one question in the market today is do the AI revenues justify the CapEx build-out? [20:00] Josh Brown: The answer for stock market investors is, hey, do yourself a favor. instead of adding the fifth semiconductor name to your portfolio, look elsewhere. That's what the market is telling us today. [10:00] 浑水摸鱼清源: I can't find a better stock risk reward profile for the next three years than Celsius. [32:38] 浑水摸鱼清源: Folks, you are probably invested in AI, even if you don't think or know that you are invested in AI. [6:31] 浑水摸鱼清源: Whenever you're going through any crash in the market, the main thing you guys have to remember, listen – it's just about making it out to the other side. [6:31] 浑水摸鱼清源: A stock like RH will double, like quick too. We're talking six to nine months double. A stock like SoFi will double six to nine months.

[0:00] If there's one thing you know we like to do around these parts, let's flip some flapjacks. And man, we'll be flipping some flapjacks here today. $75,000 upward move to the public count. Huge bounce back day for the public count after yesterday's, let's call it, little tough day out there. So public count, flirting with going to new all-time highs. We're only down a very small percentage now at this point in time, ladies and gentlemen. So I want to do some stock talk at the beginning of this video. The Cheesecake Factory continues to run. Look at this stock. I mean, it just, it's insane. It's like, it doesn't care what the market's doing. It's like, I'm going up. Like you go down, I go up, you go, up I go up it is unbelievable another all-time high for the stock so we'll talk about Cheesecake Factory in this video here today look at these moves Incredible. I mean, Revolve is 7% plus move here today. Elf on a shelf, 7% plus move. RH is 6% plus move. Service now, 6% plus move. SoFi, 6% plus move. Estee Lauder, stay louder for the people in the back, 5%. Even the Nike. was up 5% today. Salesforce continues to roll 4.5% move. Celsius, the wealthiest, actually getting moving in the right direction, right? And then, of course, the Cheesecake Factory. So we'll talk about these stocks in this video here today. So people are looking at this one. This is a one-week spot right now. AMD down about 22k here today up 1.151 million dollars on this position in the public account. We'll talk about AMD and where the stock is headed from here. I do think that's a very important subject. After we get done going through that, I want to react to a couple videos. First one up here, Brad Gerstner. So this is a very important video. to react to here. And the reason being is Brad Gerstner, he's either invested into or connected with like the whole AI wave and all these companies that are doing big stuff in the AI space. And so I think he's definitely, you know, one of those guys that on one side, it's like, okay, he's heavily invested in this whole industry. So I'm Maybe he's just going to talk his book. But I also think it's – you always got to listen to people and like say, OK, do they make good points or not? And so that's what we're going to do here today. He makes definitely some compelling points to give you some thought about like this is probably a bigger runway than I think a lot of people are really anticipating here. Then once we get done going through that, I want to react to somebody from Fundstrat, not Tom Lee today. Newton, he says investors should be diversified but should be buying the dip in tech. Oh, man, you always know Fundstrat. They always got to be bullish. So looking forward to sharing my opinion and perspectives there. One thing I'll need from you guys before we get rolling here. Just smash that like button for me. I appreciate y'all for doing that. Also, make sure you subscribe to the channel. I am on the road to recovery. And by the way, I don't know why my feed's being a little weird here today. I don't know what's going on. Look at this back here. What is going on here? The screen's being weird. Whatever. We're going to still record, right? But yeah, I'm feeling quite a bit better. Been getting some good sunshine. Been recovering. Thank goodness. And I appreciate y'all for always joining me. Thanks so much for being here, man. We always got exciting times. Exciting times, right? Okay, so Cheesecake Factory, let's get started with this one. You know, what's the deal here with Cheesecake Factory? How's the stock just keep going higher? Is it eventually due for a downward move? Okay, listen. The company's clicking on all cylinders, right? And they're doing everything. When I first started investing in the stock, you know, a lot of people didn't get it, and I understand. But they're doing everything I thought they could. With that being said, the stock's definitely – getting more expensive now at this point in time. But there's a weird thing that happens in the market. Sometimes a stock can get more expensive and It's because Wall Street is finally understanding the story in regards to that stock. And so if we look at Cheesecake Factory, a lot of Wall Street has not understood the story. The story with Cheesecake Factory, in my opinion, is they've got this ATM cash cow business, which is Cheesecake Factory. And they've got multiple growth concepts that are going to be huge across the United States of America. North Talley is one. And the biggest one, bigger than anything, the company has going on is Flower Child. And the comps there are insane. all this time and all these years, right? And so the company's getting a valuation re-rating. So if I look at Cheesecake Factory stock today, okay? Um, let me go ahead and I'm on thousand X. here over on my Big computer. Let me type in cake. You got to use 1000X on the big boy computer. Okay. So Cake is in a, you know, a 4P now in the mid twenties. Right. For cake historically, that's kind of rich. There's no debate like that's a rich multiple for Cheesecake Factory, right? But... If you expect cheesecake to have years and years of growth, 10 years plus of growth ahead because of North Talia, Flower Child and the other concepts coming behind that, it's not a rich multiple. It's just rich based upon their historical standards, right? So if you look at something like Kaba, so now I'm going to type in Kaba. [5:00] Kava Kava Kava Kava here on 1000xstocks.com. Kava trades at a forward P of 59. 59,4 P for Cava, right? Cava is a growth concept in the restaurant space. They got one, Growth concept is Calvin. That's it. Cheesecake factor has multiple. and look at the Multiple Calitrade app. over 2x where cake's at, right? And so that's The interesting dynamic we had here in regards to cake is we've had a complete valuation re-rating happen in that stock. Now, the question is, does it ever re-rate again back down to that 12 to 15 reigns? My opinion is, Highly unlikely. All things are possible, right? It's the market. but highly unlikely. Because... Once Wall Street started to understand they've got multiple growth concepts, that doesn't go away. And so my opinion is that 4P likely stays in the 20s. Could it go down to 20? That could be fair. Could it go up to 28? That could be possible. But I think it stays somewhere in that 4P in the 20s. That's my opinion in regards to that. And they also got their financing lined up. They're also doing a great job expanding the business. This is a company clicking on all cylinders. So... Yeah, it's a tough one. It's a tough one to take profits on because at the end of the day, they pay me out fatty dividends every three months. You got to understand the shares I bought back in the day, my dividend yield on that's big. Right? I was buying this when it was a 3-4% yield, so... I'm like, why do I need to run out of it? And it's one of the most quality companies I'm invested into. Right? Let's go ahead and talk about some of these stocks: Revolve, EELF, RH, NOW, SOFI. Listen, let me put it simple to you, okay? interest rates go down. These stocks boom. Okay. And what we had today is interest rates going down pretty much across the board in several interest rates. Several treasury yields in a substantial way, right? I told you guys I'm still recovering here. Hold yours. This is one flipping flapjacking moment. Okay, I survived. So listen. When it comes to these stocks, there are certain ones that If interest rates, if treasury yields are going lower, they're going to bounce back even harder. Right. RH is a great example of that. SoFi is a great example of that. Those stocks are set to boom. I mean, absolutely, boom. But you've got to also remember a few things here, okay? If we ever get a situation where treasury yields start going down for the wrong reasons, what's the wrong reason? That's a situation where treasury yields are going down because of recession fears. and maybe deflation because of a recession. If that happens, stocks like Wynn, RH, and these others that have... that are benefiting short term by interest rates going down, those ones could still falter if that was to happen. So my ideal situation is, Interest rates go lower over the next six to 12 months, right? and we don't have any sort of major recession in the real world economy, I call it, bounces back into a better spot over the next one to two years, right? And so naturally I'm optimistic. I like to be an optimistic person. I like to think that everybody's going to be doing better economically. Everybody's... job prospects are going to be doing better and wage opportunities are going to be doing better and those sorts of things. One of the big things we got to get moving if we really want to get this US economy moving in a major way outside of the AI wave that's going on, right? Everybody knows. Big tech companies are spending fortunes and money on all this AI. Great. Okay. But what do we get moving for the economy to really get the economy moving outside of that? residential real estate. We got to get real estate moving. The only way we get real estate moving, we got to get mortgage rates down. The only way you get mortgage rates down, we got to get that 10 year down. So, If we can talk about the 10-year slides down without... a major recession over the next year or more. We can talk about the housing market getting going, we talk about the housing market getting going, we talk about the economy getting going. And we talk about Better days ahead, right? And so... that is what I think has a decent probability of happening, right? There's always a range of outcomes that can happen in any of these scenarios, but I think there's a decent probability that happens in certain of these stocks are going to If that does play out, we're going to bounce way harder than others, right? A stock like RH will double, like quick too. We're talking six to nine months double. A stock like SoFi will double six to nine months. Like it happens quick. And so, you know, and when I say double, I'm talking about from the lows these stocks hit yesterday. Like SoFi was 13 yesterday, right? Like SoFi goes to 26 like that. If interest rates can go lower without a major recession, right? the worry is okay what if you get into a major recession well we'll cross that bridge if we get to that bridge right um That's one of the situations if you're in a full-blown crash, recession, you just hold on. You buy as much as you can during that whole dynamic and make it out to the other side. Whenever you're going through any crash in the market, the main thing you guys have to remember, listen – it's just about making it out to the other side and trying to make it out to the other side at [10:00] unscathed as possible. Right. In public count, you know, 2022, we got hit bad. I was not positioned well for 20, you know, what happened in 2022. And we got hit hard in the public count. Right. But we made it out to the other side. I made it out with still about a million dollars in the public count, right? And that million dollars in the public count now, a few years later, right? Four years later, roughly, is now $5.2 million. So, you know... And you say, well, we had some deposits over time. Sure, but that's like a super small amount compared to how much the public account has increased in value over the years, right? So... The moral of the story is here, make it through. Try to make it through as unscathed as possible if you ever go through a crash. But make it through, man. That's just the biggest thing. You don't want to go under. Some people go under in those situations. They put themselves too far because they were way margined out. They were maybe super heavy in call options or something like that. They got caught off sides and then they lose 70, 80, 90 plus percent of their portfolio. You're done, Ski, then. You're finished for a long time. You're finished for probably five, ten years. that so just got to make it out to the side we got off subject there right that was just uh we got off subject there we were talking about that and then i'm talking about how to you know um not go under during a recessionary scenario right Um, S.A. Louder continues to benefit big, right? Nike, that one's just been devastated. We've got a long way to climb back there. on Nike. You know, when it comes to stocks like Nike, I mean, it's a real interesting stock, right? Because if you bought the stock a year ago, two years ago, three years ago, You hate that stock. You're down huge on it, just like I am, right? 46%. But if you bought Nike in the last few weeks, the last month or two, right? Like you are, you're kind of, you're probably pretty dang optimistic. Are you not? Yeah, you likely are, right? Let me look up Nike here on 1000X. you know this stock let's pull up a six month on this one right this stock bottomed recently at 33 now it's at 37 so if you bought in the past you know we call a month or two you're probably pretty optimistic on nike but if you bought like when i bought you're not so optimistic right and that's where individual stocks timing is very important right Time in the market always beats time in the market for an overall portfolio building. But when it comes to individual stock picking, the moment you get in is very important. You look at me with SoFi. SoFi, I'm up 63% on it. That stock's going to be tremendous. I think it's going to do me phenomenal in the future. But if you bought SoFi at $30 when it was $30, what was it last year? You hate SoFi. This stock is horrible, right? It's like $15 or whatever price it is, $16. And you're like, what is wrong with this thing? It was $13 yesterday. So individual stocks, you got to get your timing right, man. And a lot of that goes back to running your projections and really understanding if you're getting a great deal on the stock or not. And if you're not getting a great deal on the stock, you have to be okay with not buying it. You have to be okay with not buying it. Sometimes that's just a situation, right? It is what it is, right? And in the private group, by the way, I teach you guys all this stuff I'm talking about here in depth. About running projections on companies so you can figure out if you're getting a great deal on stock or a bad deal. We run all the projections through thousandxtalks.com. So important. Otherwise, you're just throwing darts at a dartboard. Whenever you make an investment decision, you've got to know what you're doing. You've got to feel confident. Like, I'm getting a steel deal on this stock, and this stock can likely – give me this sort of return over the next three to five years. If you don't have that going in, what you got? That's tough. Because no matter what, the stock market's always going to be, nothing's ever guaranteed in the stock market as with any investments. But at least you got to put yourself in a position where it's like, okay, this makes sense to buy this particular asset at this particular price. And here's what it could yield if this and this and this happen over the coming years. And that's the name of the game. And that's why we've been fortunate to have so much success in the public account over time. Salesforce, big move up here today, 11,000 plus dollars right those sass related companies continue to um just be in a very strong spot overall celsius are wealthiest that one's got a long way to go you guys know what i say about celsius You know what I say. Best deal in the stock market. If I'm just thinking about what has the most... What's has the best risk reward for the next three years He's right there. Celsius is wealthiest. I can't find a better stock risk reward profile for the next three years in Celsius. Cheesecake Factory, we spoke about that one. Now, AMD. So, AMD, let's say... As I've said to you guys many times on this AMD run, the death of AMD has been greatly exaggerated. AMD is going to go on another Ripper rally in my opinion. it's the one you got to be in. You know, if you're Wall Street, if you're a big fund, it's the one you got to be in next year. And so... I have zero doubts about AMD's. not only their business model over the next several years, but really the stock price, right? And so every single time AMD... [15:00] Paul's It's always a buy right now. And that's exactly what's going on there is it's just a phenomenon where stock will pull back, drop a bunch. People are like, oh, it's over. And then AMD just goes on another huge run. Right. And so. My opinion is, you know... Right around Halloween-ish, maybe a little before is AMD's going to start another big, huge run. Right. And, um, Next thing you know, we'll be... Q1 of next year and the stock will be at a huge all-time high. That's my opinion. And I could be wrong about that, but I've been pretty good with calling AMD, right? So we'll see. We'll see what happens there. But that's what I think is going to happen there, right? Okay, let's go ahead and react to Brad Gerstner. I think he's an important one to pay attention to regarding this AI stuff. And then we'll get into Fundstrat, Newton. He's been in nearly every major meeting at the White House that they've held on AI. Snowflake's CEO is going to join me as well today as the future of software in this AI age remains a hotly debated subject. The Investment Committee with me as well. Josh Brown, Stephanie Link, Malcolm Etheridge. Can't wait to hear from everybody today. You know what the market picture looks like, but let's show you because the Dow's up big, but AI stocks are not. And we'll get to Coral Weave more specifically in a moment. Is this about AI slowdown concerns? Is this about debt levels and interest rates going up? Is this about choice C, all of the above? What do you think? Yeah, of course it's all of the above. Well, first, great to be back here. We talked about this maybe a month ago, right? The number one question in the market today is do the AI revenues justify the CapEx build-out? I mean, frankly, it goes back to the conversation I had with Sam Altman on my podcast last October when I asked him the question, how can you make a trillion dollars in spending commitments when you have $13 billion in gap revenue? Well, what happened this year is revenues exploded higher, right? for Anthropic at the start of this year. 30 billion dollars Now a lot of the reports have him doing at least $100 billion. We'll get into that a little bit today. But the fact of the matter is AI revenues exploded higher this year. And now we're in this phase of consolidation. People are starting to worry. Yeah, no, I do think what he's bringing up here is very important. OK, listen. That's free dish. Like for you to as a company to go from basically no revenue to $100 billion in like a two or three year span is crazy. We've never seen anything like that before. Not even the great meta. Not even Google. None of these companies. Apple. You've never seen a company go from... Like no revenue to $200 billion run rate like that. That's crazy. Which, you know, is pretty exciting if you own the chip companies, right? Like an AMD or even an NVIDIA that... A company can come out with a successful product and it can take off like that and start generating so much revenue. And then that company can go ahead and reinvest and buy more and more chips and build more and more infrastructure. So very, very exciting. The source commoditizing the frontier labs are the revenue sustainable. And at the same time, then they're hearing in the marketplace that things may have slowed down. So that plus higher rates, plus some of the political stuff going on in the background, background has people scared. I will tell you, I'm on the I'm on the more positive side of this, but I think it's good. We have this churn in the market. It avoids bubbles. OK, you're more positive. You're on the more positive side. don't they? I mean, you've taken your exposure down. Yes. I mean, I... I will agree with him regarding... Um... You know, all this... worries all the time definitely makes it less likely you get a bubble in the market. I mean, you know, look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA is a really good example, right? Like this is how fearful people are of All these stocks, really, right? You have a stock like Nvidia right now that's trading at 4 rupiah do-si-do, at 20 to 4 rupiah on Nvidia. Right? With, you know, revenue or EPS growth on a trail-in-to-month basis of 125%, What? That's crazy. Next 12 months, EPS growth is expected to be 94%. I mean, you know, with margins that we've never seen before. And it's trading at Ford P at 22. It just shows you how much fear there really is about bubble, bubble, bubble. And that kind of actually puts you in a situation where it's hard to get a bubble. You know, obviously you look at MU. MU is trading at probably a forward P of 5 or 4 right now, right? you know, because there's fears about memory and those sorts of things. So, When you have all that, it's actually really healthy for the stock market. I did a presentation at the All In Summit about a month ago. I said I had taken my exposure down to medium small. I think I had shared that with you just the week before then. And the reason for that is I saw a lot of these AI stocks. April and [20:00] We had the biggest move in semis in history, right? And that fuse was lit by the Anthropic Revenue Report in March of the year. And I just thought they got ahead of themselves that we were going to consolidate a little bit. And it turns out there were even more fears that came along, inflation, rates, etc. So our exposures are the lowest they've been in three years, right, over the course of the last couple months. The lowest they've been in three years. How can you then profess how sort of positive you still have? Remember, remember, I live in two simultaneous but different worlds. One world is I manage money for people in a hedge fund. And so my job is to make sure I avoid some of the drawdown in my long only fund and in my growth funds and venture funds. We're investing for the next five to 10 years. So I'm telling you, when I look at 27 and 28, I'm even more positive and we can get into why. But you have to acknowledge that there's going to be chop along the way. So it doesn't surprise me at all that we've had some of that chops, some of that consolidation. Why am I getting more positive? Why am I leaning in and maybe start buying over the course of the next couple of weeks because I seeing prices come in and start to get enticing again Well I mean Josh that the trillion dollar question Whether there more pain to be had in this market whether we going to get to some levels that are attractive not only to a Brad Gerstner but to a Josh Brown and any investor who is now watching this program thinking about where we are and where we going Yeah, look, I think something really interesting happened this week. We finally got the answer or part of the answer to the riddle that everybody's been wondering about. The question was, why have rates been marching higher really since June, but accelerating into the end of September and early October? And it was this big debate. Is it oil prices feeding into inflation expectations? Is it reverse crowding out where all this debt coming from the AI CapEx build out is making it so the government has to raise the rate in order to entice buyers? I think what we learned yesterday was the latter is a really big driver of rates. Think about what happened. We had a hot PPI hot CPI doesn really matter because in the end bonds fell when it looked like there would be less bonds coming from the core weaves and the neoclouds and maybe even some of the established incumbents in data centers All of a sudden we had this crazy move in rates what looks like a blow-off top in the five-year, in the 10-year. That tells you how much of the rise in rates is coming from just too many bonds being offered by corporate America. If we think there's going to be a slowdown there, And that's what the stock prices of Nebius and Corweave and the rest tell you. All of a sudden, we get rates come in and look what's working in the market today. Everything other than AI caught a big bid from health care to even staples. We're seeing housing related plays move. That's a really interesting situation, I think, for people that are trying to figure out where from here. The answer for stock market investors is, hey, do yourself a favor. instead of adding the fifth semiconductor name to your portfolio, look elsewhere. That's what the market is telling us today. Well, Steph, there's been a debate about the looking elsewhere, right? I mean, the market became much more concentrated at the expense of the elsewhere, which you been advocating for repeatedly and now maybe the pendulum is starting to swing back the other way as we ask more serious questions about where we are in the AI trade Well I don think it one or the other I think it's both. And, you know, I have been adding to technology on any of the declines, but I also have been very much exposed to, yeah, the 493 other stocks and other sectors. And I think the reason is because the economy continues to grow in the face of higher rates and higher inflation. We're still growing. north of three percent um and like today's data i know we were all focused on ppi and yesterday cpi but did you look at retail sales how great that was and weekly jobless claims a four-week moving average of 198 000 the lowest level uh since 1969 you look at some of the like the manufacturing uh regional series like the philly fed the empire fed there are a lot of good things that are happening beyond technology, beyond AI. And yeah, I think we should see a catch up because I think you are gonna see earnings. I thought the bank earnings this week, yeah, a little sloppy, but outside the capital markets and M&A, the rest of the businesses are humming. And you have these stocks that have been, at one point Morgan Stanley was up 25% this year, now flat on the year. And so the valuations are coming down. In the semiconductor space, [25:00] I do not think that AI and the food chain, I don't think it's dead. We haven't seen any kind of change in the $1 trillion spend that we're seeing from the hyperscalers. Rates certainly going to hurt some of the bad players that have bad balance sheets. Cornweave has 50 billion in debt. Oracle has 167 billion in debt. So sure, higher rates are going to hurt them. But you've got cash generators that are actually down just as much that are opportunities. NVIDIA and Broadcom, Micron, and I will get to all of them later. But you have very healthy companies that are getting caught up in this tailwind of just concern. And I think you're going to see opportunities in tech as well as beyond tech. Malcolm, what do you make of what's been happening with the AI-centric trade? You know, the really silly thing. Really silly. is When you have these AI sell-offs, they're not based upon reality. You don't have to worry until you get Meta, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic, these sorts of companies to pull back on CapEx. The moment that happens, Button hatches in regards to AI chip related stocks. But you don't have that. And you're not having that anytime soon. Anytime soon meaning in the next year. Two years out, now we can talk. We can talk. Two years out, we could have a big pullback. Three years out, for sure we can talk. right but in the next 12 months not super realistic right Even so, we know these companies are committed to just spending every dime they have coming in on these chips plus taking out debt. And so now they don't have much to raise that past 28, right? But the moral of the story is here, like the spend is still intact for now, right? And so there will be a moment you got to get scared, but it's not right now. It might be six months from now, might be 12 months from now, maybe 18 months from now, but it's not at the exact moment. guard. So I heard Brad mention we're probably going to see a tremendous amount of chop between now and when we finally get there. I'm listening to Josh and Stephanie talk about looking outside of The mag seven, let's say, are the hyperscalers for the opportunity to stick with the A.I. trade or to diversify. And what I think we're looking at is not necessarily a changing of the guard in the sense that A.I. is no longer going to be the thing that's powering the economy as well as the stock market. Maybe what we're looking at is just some other companies beneath the surface that we haven't really paid attention to because they're not the chips. They're not the core weaves of the Nebius. They're not the hyperscalers, the Mag7 that's doing all the building. They're the companies that are really going to weaponize the AI technology as it's being constructed right now. And they're going to figure out ways to do a lot more with a lot less. And that is what's going to drive the second leg. of the AI revolution. And I think that's probably the question that we should be looking to answer. Is it one where we've got to actually take the market down entirely to make that rotation? Or is it one that we can successfully make the leap between where we are right now, and those companies that will come out as the new leaders at the forefront of the AI revolution. I'm thinking software, obviously that's a very direct link, but I'm looking also at the companies beyond that. You heard Brian Moynihan, for example, talking about how they've had to add a thousand people to their 3000 piece orchestra to help build out their cybersecurity outfit. But it's also expected that they're going to see something like a 700 million dollar savings starting next year. just from what they've done to deploy AI across the bank. And that's one company out of however many thousands of global enterprises. So I think that's where the real opportunity is that investors should be paying attention to and figuring out how to get to where the puck is going. So, I think the big takeaway here is these companies are expanding rapidly. Specifically, we're talking about OpenAI, Anthropic, and a lot of these other companies that are in the AI space, right? Those are the two most people talk about. And so – It's very exciting times, very exciting times in the business models can be built rapidly and grow rapidly. So you think about Anthropics, let's say Anthropics right now at $100 billion revenue run rate. Where are they a year from now? Are they 200 billion, 300 billion, 400 billion? Right. It's completely up for debate. But the growth is staggering and it's like nothing we've ever really seen. You know, when we talk about, I mean, gosh, open AI, what is open AI's run rate for revenue? And obviously open AI. Calculates a little different open AI revenue Run right. So OpenAI revenue run rate is approximately $50 billion, right? Um... And from my understanding, they calculated a little, let's call it better, right, than anthropic. Anthropics, I guess a little bit more questionable the way they're calculating their revenue, but still 50 billion dollars from a company that four years ago no one. [30:00] any clue about this right and so where's open ai's revenue run right a year from now is it 100 billion 75 billion, 150 billion, right? Like the growth is, is unbelievable. And, um, the next question is do we we've started to see the revenue pickup with aws google cloud um Azure has been kind of more just consistent. We haven't seen a big uptick really there. Maybe we will, but we haven't yet, right? But the next question is, are we going to start to see with these SaaS companies a big revenue uptick? I'm talking ServiceNow. I'm talking Salesforce because if we're talking about that, then those companies start growing rapidly. Then we're having a party, man. We're just having a party. All right, Newton. Let's hear what you got to say. ... of technical strategy. All right. Who wants to jump? Let's talk technicals, Mark, first with you because the price action has been kind of crazy lately. And so divine that a little bit for us. What's going on? Look, I think it's fair to say that across... asset volatility has really started to pick up in the last month. We saw equal rated S&P down about 6% at a time when the S&P literally just hit new all time highs seven trading days ago. So a lot of this has already been happening while tech was rallying during September. That since has reversed, tech has pulled back very sharply And this last week, arguably, we really have not seen that much damage in technology compared to the move that it had back in September. This whole year has been marked by rotation. We saw initially an energy rallying almost 40 percent. That spread to technology. Now it's spreading to health care. which just hit new all-time highs. Investors need to be prepared for these shifts in sectors uh arguably you need to be diversified uh but right now you know in my opinion it's right to buy the dip in technology steve coming into a week ago about 40 of the s p 500 was in a technical bear market but nobody uh is the vice there is is it Is that good advice? I'll say absolutely. Diversified, very important. If you guys look at the public account, like one of the ways the public account gets it through these times when, and even an AMD can go down as it's very well diversified growth value dividends. And so AMD could go down and the public could still be up $75,000 here today, right? Now imagine if AMD had a good day, right? So diversity is very key. And then additionally, Buying the dip in tech, I don't think it's a bad decision, right? Especially if you've got any sort of longer term horizon. If you're just thinking about the next two weeks, who knows? But if you're thinking about the next several years, yeah, buying opportunities for sure. because those were the companies that are not running the show. But also, let me say, I don't think those are the best buying opportunities. I think you've got a lot better buying opportunities that are not tech related in the stock market right now. The problem now and what worries me a little bit, why I tweeted out last night the market feels a little bit fragile, is that the companies that are being sold the last couple of days are the ones that are being sold. that are running the show. They are AI-related people. semiconductors they're holding up right now how important is this time these next few days for the market. Well, I don't disagree with you, Brian. I think the problem here is it's not a problem. It's worked really well, but we are all heavily invested in AI, whether we want to be or not. If you're taking your 401k and a certain amount of it goes into an S&P 500 index fund, you're 45% invested or more in technology, whether you like it or not. to do it or not. That's my point. Exactly. Even people that may be like, I'm not worried about it because I'm not invested in AI. Yes, you are. Folks, you are probably invested in AI, even if you don't think or know that you are invested in AI. And there's hundreds or thousands of ETFs. devoted to this. And my worry is that if these stocks get sold, they have been ETFs, get sold, index funds then get sold, and you get this sort of rolling stone down the hill momentum trade on the downside. That can happen. As of now, we've seen a lot of rotation going back and forth to Mark's point with different sectors. I almost call it like the whale watching boat thing. We all run to one side of the boat. You know, the whales there, it swims around. We all run to the other side of the boat to see something else. The problem is if we have a sustained decline in technology, if people really start to question the ROI of on AI investment, which has allowed the stock market to rally despite bonds, bond yields going up. Because if you think the ROI is infinite, what do you care if you borrow at 9% or 20%? I don't care. I'm making 60%. What's the difference? If that starts to become a real concern, and that's what CoreWeave is telling us, That's where the fragility comes in. Oh, for sure. A hundred percent. All right, guys. Appreciate you joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. For those of you that want to become the best investor you can, you want to join the private group, apply to join. That will be pinned comment down there. Click on that, fill out a form, see if we can get you in there maybe this weekend or Monday. [35:00] week. That's access to all my course curriculums, private discord chat, exclusive weekly videos, thousandxtalks.com, all that good stuff plus a lot more. 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