Protege Warns Medical AI Aces Exams but Fails Real Clinical Tasks

Why Medical AI Needs a Referee | Protege's Engy Ziedan — Daisy Wolf, Eva Steinman, Engy Ziedan

Daisy Wolf, Eva Steinman, Engy Ziedan

Hospital adoption of medical AI based on vendor exam scores risks severe clinical failures because up to 80% of electronic health data is already contaminated and models lack independent, real-time evaluation in live workflows.

AI-assisted summary of Why Medical AI Needs a Referee | Protege's Engy Ziedan — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published:

Key ideas

  • Medical AI exhibits a severe measurement gap: models can score over 92% on static licensing exams while dropping to 45% on real-world clinical tasks, underscoring that benchmark performance does not reflect hospital readiness. (20:00)
  • Widespread data contamination undermines benchmark validity, with data partners reporting that up to 80% of accessible electronic health data has already been licensed for model training. (30:00)
  • Subtle misalignment in healthcare AI creates an Edgeworth-box conflict where insurer agents automate claim denials and hospital agents maximize revenue recovery, leaving patients without agency in the middle. (10:00)
  • Unlike human clinicians who undergo a decade of education, residencies, and state licensure, medical AI models are deployed into clinical workflows without standardized credentials based solely on vendor-reported claims. (32:41)

Detailed notes

## Background Published on August 24, 2026, via web and RSS by Daisy Wolf and Eva Steinman, this episode features Engy Ziedan, co-founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Protege. According to the show description, the conversation explores why medical AI has a profound measurement problem, why acing static licensing benchmarks does not guarantee hospital safety, and how contaminated training data and subtle misalignment necessitate independent, real-world clinical evaluation.

## TL;DR Engy Ziedan details why static multiple-choice medical exams fail to measure clinical competence, noting that models can achieve 92% exam scores while plummeting to 45% on actual clinical tasks. She warns that widespread data contamination—with up to 80% of existing health data already ingested into training sets—causes models to memorize answers rather than reason, forcing Protege to locate completely un-digitized physical pathology slides to build untainted benchmarks. The discussion examines how AI vendors face commercial conflicts of interest when grading their own tools and contrasts the exhaustive credentialing required for human clinicians with the unverified deployment of clinical AI. Ultimately, Ziedan argues that retrospective regulatory frameworks are too slow for agentic models, advocating instead for continuous, real-time independent oversight across specialized clinical subnodes.

## Atmosphere & style The conversation carries an incisive, analytically rigorous, and demystifying tone, anchored by Ziedan’s ability to pair formal health economics models with candid operational reality. Hosts Daisy Wolf and Eva Steinman maintain a brisk, inquisitive dynamic, prompting grounded discussions that cut through vendor hype using memorable real-world examples, like hunting through hospital basement drawers for un-scanned glass tissue slides. The exchange moves from a sharp critique of paper-thin benchmarking practices to a sober, high-stakes warning about automation bias, creating the feel of an urgent, behind-the-scenes strategy briefing on the clinical and economic realities of healthcare AI.

## Bulletin - `20:00` Medical AI exhibits a severe measurement gap: models can score over 92% on static licensing exams while dropping to 45% on real-world clinical tasks, underscoring that benchmark performance does not reflect hospital readiness. - `30:00` Widespread data contamination undermines benchmark validity, with data partners reporting that up to 80% of accessible electronic health data has already been licensed for model training. - `10:00` Subtle misalignment in healthcare AI creates an Edgeworth-box conflict where insurer agents automate claim denials and hospital agents maximize revenue recovery, leaving patients without agency in the middle. - `32:41` Unlike human clinicians who undergo a decade of education, residencies, and state licensure, medical AI models are deployed into clinical workflows without standardized credentials based solely on vendor-reported claims.

## Key takeaways - `00:00` Frontier models face an impending bottleneck in downstream utility driven by the scarcity of specialized, high-quality, real-world training data rather than open internet text. - `05:00` The commercial pivot of foundation model labs from consumer chatbots to enterprise workflow automation requires rigorous independent evaluation to convince risk-averse enterprise buyers. - `06:30` Healthcare AI cannot follow frictionless zero-marginal-cost consumer adoption models because providers incur direct compute expenses, onboarding costs, and severe malpractice liability risks. - `06:30` Information asymmetry in medicine mirrors Akerlof's 'market for lemons,' making it hazardous to license autonomous AI agents based merely on 5,000-question multiple-choice exams. - `10:00` While catastrophic mortality failures are straightforward to define, subtle organizational misalignments—such as suppressing out-of-network referrals to preserve hospital revenue—pose greater detection challenges. - `10:00` Ambient listening tools can mitigate human charting bias by generating objective SOAP notes that remove subjective editorializing and prejudice against patients. - `12:35` The healthcare AI market suffers an evaluation vacuum where 'everyone and no one' watches model safety, as vendors have zero incentive to highlight their own failure modes. - `15:00` Benchmark fragility is widespread: minor changes to prompt wording or multiple-choice answer ordering can drastically shift model rankings in specialized domains like oncopathology. - `15:00` Retrospective quality metrics that review outcomes 6 to 12 months later are inadequate for governing fast-moving, personalized AI agents, necessitating continuous real-time monitoring. - `20:00` Grading AI against human clinicians is confounded by physician-specific habits and treatment beats, meaning a model deviating from a doctor's preference is not inherently incorrect. - `25:00` Protege acts as an independent arbiter across clinical subnodes by running competing models through standardized harnesses to diagnose deficiencies and identify required retraining data. - `27:00` Federal policy and regulation move too slowly to safeguard AI deployment, as demonstrated by quality programs like Medicare readmission penalties taking a decade to evaluate single metrics. - `30:00` To guarantee untainted evaluations, Protege enforces a 'sealed membrane' policy and sourced physical, un-digitized glass pathology slides from hospital drawers. - `32:41` A severe credentialing double standard exists between heavily regulated domestic and international human clinicians and uncertified clinical AI systems. - `34:20` Relying on human-in-the-loop oversight is fundamentally compromised by automation bias, as clinicians rarely possess the time or skepticism to dispute computer-generated clinical outputs.

## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` The Core Dilemma of Medical AI and Protege's Genesis

Hundreds of millions of people routinely query generative AI models about their health, yet the healthcare industry faces an unanswered question: who is actually checking whether the outputs delivered to patients are safe, aligned, and clinically accurate? While frontier models frequently ace standard multiple-choice medical board exams, acing static benchmarks does not translate to being safe or competent inside a real-world hospital. Models are fundamentally constrained by the real-world data used to build them, and evaluating their capabilities requires looking past superficial test scores to examine edge cases, subtle misalignments, and catastrophic failure modes.

Daisy Wolf and Eva Steinman introduce Engy Ziedan, co-founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Protege and an assistant professor of healthcare economics at Indiana University whose research has been featured in *The New York Times* and cited by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Reflecting on how Protege began, Engy recalls sitting in her office as an assistant professor at Tulane University two years after completing her PhD. The COVID-19 pandemic had just begun, and she was urgently trying to write empirical economics papers that required data from literally two days prior—an impossible turnaround at the time. She connected with Bobby, who was working at a data facilitation company and helped her acquire AWS instances, data access, and institutional connections.

After that initial engagement, the two fell out of touch until February 2024, when Bobby sent Engy a straightforward email from a personal Gmail account containing a brief Google Document. In his typical direct style, Bobby posed a foundational question: "What do we hold to be true about the future?" The document set out a clear thesis that frontier foundation models would eventually scrape the open internet clean and find their downstream usefulness bottlenecked by the availability of high-quality, real-world data across specialized domains. That memo became the blueprint for Protege, establishing its mission to source aligned, real-world data and independent evaluations to guide AI training. Today, nearly all major foundation models have utilized Protege’s healthcare data for pre-training and mid-training. The company’s internal operations span diverse multi-modal domains:

- **Endoscopic Video:** Over 100,000 internal endoscopy videos capturing procedures inside human bodies. - **Veterinary Medicine:** Real-world clinical pet and animal care datasets. - **Robotics Manipulation:** 3D physical object suites—such as diverse collections of household mugs—used to train robotic systems to estimate object weight and tactile handling.

> “When I look back at that document, I often read it every few months or so, which is that models are going to be inhibited in their usefulness by the training data available for them.” — Engy Ziedan

---

`05:00` From Consumer Chatbots to Enterprise Workflows

When Protege launched, the team assumed its primary client base would consist of early-stage AI startups trying to build specialized applications. Instead, the world's largest foundation model labs immediately became their modal customers. At first, these labs focused on the broad consumer market, prioritizing whether a conversational bot could interact intelligently with users, maintain safety boundaries, and present reasonably sound medical information without causing immediate harm.

Over time, labs recognized that the largest revenue opportunities lay in enterprise settings, which fundamentally altered their data and evaluation requirements. Rather than simply powering casual conversations, enterprise models must aggregate tasks across knowledge work, automate operational workflows, and potentially take over end-to-end responsibilities. This evolution forced the industry to reconsider how work is structured, recognizing that traditional job descriptions are effectively contrived human bundles of discrete tasks.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Evolution of AI Deployment Demands accDescr: Diagram illustrating the shift from consumer-facing conversational AI to high-stakes enterprise clinical integration.

subgraph Consumer["Phase 1: Consumer Market"] A["Conversational Safety"] --> B["Basic Alignment"] B --> C["Casual Patient Queries"] end

subgraph Enterprise["Phase 2: Enterprise Integration"] D["Task Aggregation"] --> E["Workflow Automation"] E --> F["Full Clinical Handoff"] end

Consumer -->|"Model Maturity & Revenue Pressure"| Enterprise Enterprise --> G["Requirement for Independent Evals"] ```

Because foundation model labs operate under commercial pressure to market their systems as the industry leader, independent evaluation has become critical. Model builders need objective proof of real-world efficacy rather than self-reported test scores to convince risk-averse enterprise buyers to adopt their technology.

> “Jobs as a collection of tasks, right, are like a contrived human concept.” — Engy Ziedan

---

`06:30` The Economics of Evals and Healthcare's Asymmetry Problem

To explain why evaluations are indispensable for AI, Engy draws on economic theory and the concept of hedonic pricing—the methodology economists use to infer the implicit value of a good based on what individuals are willing to pay for its specific characteristics, such as how local school quality dictates neighborhood home prices. When consumer applications like Uber entered the market, customers never asked for an academic evaluation or benchmark score; they simply booked a ride, observed the convenience and price, and integrated the service into their daily lives until it became a common verb.

AI cannot rely on that frictionless adoption model because the technology does not have a marginal cost of zero. Users and health systems pay real costs: direct compute fees in tokens, staff onboarding and training hours, and the ongoing liability risk that a probabilistic model will fail in a high-stakes scenario. To reach market equilibrium and price these tools correctly, buyers must be able to differentiate truly valuable technology from useless or dangerous implementations.

This dynamic is especially acute in healthcare due to structural information asymmetry. Just as George Akerlof demonstrated in the classic "market for lemons" model of used cars—where sellers possess far more technical knowledge than prospective buyers—healthcare providers possess deep expertise about diseases, clinical risk, and the value of medical interventions that patients cannot easily evaluate on their own. The societal value of clinical expertise is backed by clear empirical evidence: quasi-experimental studies exploiting admissions cutoffs for medical schools have shown that when a family member randomly gains admission to medical school and becomes a doctor, the entire extended family experiences measurable gains in life expectancy.

Deploying autonomous or semi-autonomous AI agents into this asymmetric environment exposes the inadequacy of existing evaluation paradigms. Granting clinical autonomy to an AI agent based solely on a passed benchmark is the regulatory equivalent of suddenly licensing a million new doctors simply because they cleared a 5,000-question multiple-choice exam. By contrast, the approximately one million practicing physicians in the United States undergo nearly a decade of clinical residencies, hands-on apprentice-style supervision, and continuous peer-reviewed testing. Substituting static test results for real-world validation poses immense risks in a sector where errors carry irreversible life-and-death consequences.

- **Non-Zero Marginal Costs:** Operating frontier AI requires accounting for token expenditure, technical integration pipelines, staff workflow adaptation, and the legal and operational probabilities of malpractice. - **The "Doctor in the Family" Evidence:** Empirical health economics demonstrates that having a verified clinician in an extended family network significantly lengthens family members' lifespans, underscoring the high value of genuine, nuanced clinical judgment over static knowledge retrieval. - **Exam Disparity:** Standard AI benchmarks typically evaluate performance across a few thousand static multiple-choice questions, whereas human medical licensure requires undergraduate education, four years of medical school, standardized clinical skills exams, and 3 to 7 years of hospital residency.

> “And without understanding really what is valuable and what's value-less technology, this technology does not have a marginal cost of zero, right? People are paying in tokens. They're paying with onboarding time. They're also paying with the probability that something would go wrong.” — Engy Ziedan

> “When you put agents on top of that, right, it's almost like saying we have a million doctors in America. We're going to hire a million more. Those additional million doctors have taken a lovely 5,000 question exam and passed it. We'll let them go ham and see how it goes.” — Engy Ziedan

`10:00` Catastrophic Failures, Subtle Misalignment, and Ambient Notes

Engy Ziedan draws a distinction between two types of failures in healthcare artificial intelligence: narrow catastrophic failures and pervasive, subtle misalignment. Catastrophic harm—such as direct patient mortality—is relatively straightforward to define and engineer against. The far more difficult challenge is detecting subtle misalignment and bias. Ziedan illustrates this dynamic using an economic concept:

> “You can think of it as like an Edgeworth box where there are two indifference curves that are coming together on a contract curve. One is trying to maximize total revenue and basically minimize payouts, and one is trying to maximize revenue recovered. They are both using agentic tools and the patient is in the middle. The patient has no agency.”

In this scenario, health insurance companies deploy AI to generate medical denials, while hospital systems build or acquire agentic tools to fight prior authorization hurdles and recover revenue. Because there is no active referee evaluating alignment, models can easily optimize for organizational business rules rather than patient welfare. Examples include an AI checking whether a patient owes the hospital money before allowing a prescription, or suppressing out-of-network referrals to protect hospital revenue even when a patient prefers out-of-network care.

Conversely, clinical AI tools can also strip away human bias. Drawing from Protege’s access to hundreds of billions of clinical notes, Ziedan points out that human-written medical charts frequently harbor prejudice, with entries like, *"She looks really disheveled. Her husband is asking good questions."* Phrases like that often signal skepticism toward the patient, leading clinicians to write off severe physical pain as potential mental illness. Ambient listening tools record doctor-patient conversations directly and convert them into objective SOAP notes, eliminating subjective editorializing so subsequent physicians can order appropriate clinical workups. Yet these objective benefits often go unmeasured by standard evaluation frameworks.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Structural Misalignment in Healthcare AI accDescr: Diagram showing how insurer and hospital AI agents squeeze the patient while ambient tools attempt to capture objective truth.

subgraph Conflict["The Misalignment Arena"] PayerAI["Insurer AI Agents<br/>(Minimize Payouts / Automate Denials)"] HospitalAI["Hospital AI Agents<br/>(Maximize Revenue Recovered / Prior Auth)"] Patient["Patient in the Middle<br/>(No Agency, Vulnerable to Subtle Bias)"] PayerAI -->|"Contract Curve Pressure"| Patient HospitalAI -->|"Contract Curve Pressure"| Patient end

subgraph Solution["Ambient Clinical Documentation"] DrPatient["Doctor-Patient Encounter"] Ambient["Ambient AI Recording"] CleanNote["Objective SOAP Note<br/>(Strips Human Bias & Skepticism)"] DrPatient --> Ambient --> CleanNote end ```

`12:35` Who Watches the Models? The Incentive Gap in Independent Evaluation

When clinicians use AI tools like OpenEvidence at the point of care, the question arises: who ensures the answers generated are safe and accurate? Ziedan responds that the reality is currently “everyone and no one.” Foundation model providers expend significant effort training models on clinical data to improve general alignment and trustworthiness out of the box, but vertical AI builders subsequently fine-tune those foundational models to satisfy specific commercial service-level agreements (SLAs) and business objectives.

Because every vendor issues promotional materials claiming superior performance, healthcare buyers face total uncertainty:

> “Every vendor of an AI tool, every vertical AI builder would have like a little brochure that says I am best. And so the no one is that if everyone says they are best, no one knows who's best. Also, there is no incentive to kind of pinpoint to where your product fails.”

Without an independent evaluator operating at arm's length from vendors, hospitals and patients lack visibility into the failure modes that sit beneath catastrophic outcomes. This confusion is compounded by contradictory academic literature. A paper published in *Nature* argued that general frontier models (such as OpenAI's) outperformed healthcare-specific vertical AI models, while another paper on arXiv reached the opposite conclusion shortly thereafter. Because academic journals incentivize dramatic, controversial contrasts, peer review alone cannot settle real-world utility.

- **Foundational alignment:** Training on medical corpora often enhances general model trustworthiness, but it does not account for downstream enterprise tuning. - **Vendor brochures:** AI vendors have zero incentive to highlight their own failure modes or surface subtle edge cases. - **Academic contradictions:** Competing publications in venues like *Nature* and arXiv demonstrate conflicting findings over whether generalized or specialized medical models perform best.

`15:00` Benchmark Fragility, Contamination, and the Limits of Retrospective Quality Systems

Evaluating models using static benchmarks reveals severe vulnerabilities in practice. At Protege, benchmark results vary wildly based on minor prompt variations or the sequence of answers in multiple-choice questions—especially in complex domains like oncopathology. If shifting the order of multiple-choice answers drastically alters a model's score, it suggests the evaluation benchmark may be contaminated, meaning the model merely memorized the answer keys like an unprepared student rather than mastering clinical reasoning.

This creates severe information asymmetry for hospital procurement teams spending millions of dollars on AI. Furthermore, static evaluations become obsolete as models undergo test-time training, encounter data drift, or evolve into personalized weights tuned to individual physicians:

> “These static question answers or like something in a paper where it was evaluated on a 2024 technology and published in 2026 just won't do. And so you risk not to fearmonger, but you risk a situation where we enter like the opioid epidemic when it peaked in 2010. Only when people started saying, OK, National Task Force, we're calling it an epidemic, we're acting on it, let's move.”

Ziedan contrasts the required paradigm with historical federal programs like value-based purchasing, initiated around 2007, where roughly 80% of government reimbursement to physicians and hospitals is tied to static quality measures (such as penalties for prescribing antibiotics for viral illnesses or tracking falls in skilled nursing facilities). These retrospective frameworks evaluate performance six to twelve months after the fact. While traditional healthcare policy analysts often throw up their hands because healthcare comprises 20% of GDP and 20 million out of 150 million American jobs, retrospective audits cannot govern fast-moving agentic AI.

The necessary path forward is continuous, real-time oversight:

> “The right thing to do is for there to be a watcher all the time. That when my local AI agent as a physician starts to nudge me towards decisions that are maybe profit maximizing, but hurting my patient, I'm alerted.”

Constant monitoring must safeguard against dangerous feedback loops—such as when an AI assistant picks up on a negative remark a nurse makes about a patient, becomes overly eager to recommend misaligned or aggressive steps, and ends up delivering clinical advice that is completely uncalled for.

`20:00` The Failure of Static Benchmarks and Human "Beats"

The discussion kicks off with an examination of why standard benchmarks completely miss the mark when applied to clinical practice. Daisy Wolf highlights a startling reality: AI models can score upwards of 92% on licensing exams while tumbling down to 45% when tasked with real-world clinical tasks. As she puts it, acing a test does not prove an AI is ready for the clinic, just like a top MCAT score doesn't magically make someone a capable surgeon. Engy Ziedan traces how benchmarking got to this point: it began with med school multiple-choice questions where models outscored the average student or resident, and then expanded to massive endeavors where models brag about evaluating over 700,000 question-and-answer pairs reviewed by human physicians.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Evolution of Medical AI Evaluation accDescr: Progression from static test questions to real-world point-of-care clinical evaluations. subgraph Stage1["1. Academic Testing"] A["Med School Q&A Exams"] -->|"High test score"| B["Passes Licensing Benchmarks"] end subgraph Stage2["2. Scaled Expert Review"] B --> C["Thousands of Doctor-Graded Q&As"] C -->|"Flaw"| D["Captures Physician Bias & Idiosyncrasy"] end subgraph Stage3["3. Real-World Point of Care"] D -->|"Transition"| E["Subnode Evaluation (Point of Care)"] E --> F["Task Success & Clinical Outcomes"] end ```

Engy pushes back on whether these massive Q&A sets matter to someone actually facing high-stakes medical treatment. She poses a direct thought experiment: if you are a patient about to undergo spinal surgery, do you trust a model that passed a 10,000-question exam, or a surgeon who has physically performed 4,000 operations? Patients care about specific, high-risk track records—whether a model has served as a task aggregator in an operating room, whether unwarranted deaths went up, and whether outcomes improved.

Evaluating models against real physicians also runs headfirst into clinical bias and habit. Doctors develop individualized clinical preferences or "beats." Engy cites knee replacements as an example frequently analyzed at Protege: some orthopedic surgeons will only ever perform partial knee replacements, whereas another surgeon will perform a total knee replacement on every single knee they operate on. If an AI model evaluates a patient's chart and recommends the opposite of what the total-replacement doctor chose, traditional evals label the AI wrong. In reality, the physician may have a sticky preference or hysteresis. As models inevitably surpass average clinicians, Engy points out that you cannot simply rely on the law of large numbers by surveying more doctors; instead, evaluation must move directly to high-risk, expert-level point-of-care testing.

- Models can score 92% on licensing exams while falling to 45% on actual real-world clinical tasks. - Major model builders have had physicians review more than 700,000 Q&A pairs, but this general intelligence metric fails to measure specific scenario performance. - “At some point, a task will be so expert, so high risk, that testing at point of care will become really warranted,” says Engy Ziedan.

---

`25:00` Protege as the Independent Arbiter Across Clinical Subnodes

When vertical AI builders create specialized tools within the same clinical "subnodes"—such as ambient scribing, clinical trial matching, nurse scheduling, or oncopathology analyzing H&E tissue slides for immuno-oncology (IO) pairings—they end up acting like "ships in the night." Every founder claims their own model is superior, yet none can verify their competitor's standing. Protege steps into this void as an independent arbiter: they host models in identical subnodes, run them through an identical evaluation harness, and produce comparative reports showing exactly where each model leads or lags.

Serving as this arbiter introduces thorny methodological choices that Protege has to navigate directly: - **Prompt construction:** Deciding standard prompt wording versus allowing models to use specialized prompting. - **Harness customization:** Weighing whether frontier foundation models require custom harness belts versus standard built-in setups. - **Refusal handling:** Figuring out what to do when a model refuses to answer—such as replacing it with a mean value or falling back to a second-best model—and measuring how that decision shifts rank order.

Engy explains that these finalized evaluations are shared directly with the ultimate enterprise buyers, such as hospitals and pharmaceutical companies, so they can make informed procurement decisions. Addressing why model builders shouldn't evaluate their own work, Daisy notes: “It's so obvious why the creators of the models shouldn't be the ones releasing the evals and why people shouldn't be allowed to grade their own homework.”

---

`27:00` Trust, Government Inertia, and Human-Computer Interaction

When questioned on why Protege has the right to serve as this centralized evaluator over anyone else, Engy breaks it down into absolute and comparative advantage: Protege excels in the healthcare data domain with the lowest marginal cost for generating training data and evals. More importantly, when an evaluation reveals a specific deficiency in an AI model, Protege's massive, held-out test sets allow them to immediately diagnose the blind spot and prescribe the exact data required to retrain and reinforce it. To protect credibility, the entire testing methodology is made transparent, participant identities are kept anonymous until the end, and builders are permitted a silent exit if they do not wish to publish their rankings. Engy emphasizes that any perceived bias would trigger an immediate, explosive collapse of platform trust.

Daisy and Engy dismiss the idea that the federal government will step in to solve AI evaluations. Engy points out that government agencies frequently struggle with basic digital infrastructure—reminding the room that the government cannot even facilitate seamless online tax filing without commercial software—and agencies are currently leaning on industry collaborators to help determine how AI should be evaluated. Engy recalls her doctoral dissertation on Medicare's Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (part of value-based purchasing), which took an entire decade and thousands of papers to answer a single question: does financial penalization reduce readmissions?

Modern AI cannot wait a decade for backward-looking assessments. Current healthcare AI is not outright replacing staff; rather, models are “riding shotgun” with clinicians. Because humans exhibit unpredictable behaviors—ranging from stubborn resistance to unearned overconfidence—retrospective static benchmarks fail to capture how human-computer interaction plays out in live-wire, real-time clinical workflows.

- “We have the right to win here because it kind of naturally evolved is that once we do these evals in the subnode, right, we say once the evaluation is done and we hold this test set that never leaves, if you have a deficiency in an attribute that's now been revealed, right? We can tell you exactly what data would improve the model's performance on that deficiency,” explains Engy Ziedan. - “We think what's more safe is just do it, right? And then let people challenge you on it, but just do it,” Engy says regarding moving forward without waiting for government mandates. - Traditional policy quality evaluations, like Medicare readmission penalties, take a decade to evaluate a single metric, whereas AI deployments need continuous feedback on thousands of clinical dimensions.

`30:00` The Contamination Crisis and the "Sealed Membrane" for Clinical Evals

The hosts bring up the problem of models simply memorizing test answers rather than learning genuine clinical reasoning. Because Protege is plugged directly into live data streams, it is uniquely positioned to evaluate models against clean datasets that have never been sold to model builders. Engy Ziedan reveals that data contamination has sparked intense debate both inside Protege and with external customers. Initially, she assumed sourcing uncontaminated data across hundreds of millions of patients and hundreds of billions of clinical notes would be straightforward, only to discover that the overwhelming majority of existing healthcare data had already been ingested for training. When she asked for data that had never been handed over to anyone, partners told her that up to 80% of what they held had already been licensed out.

To create genuinely independent benchmarks where a model has never encountered a patient before, Protege had to resort to extraordinary measures. In oncopathology, for instance, Protege contacted hospital pathology departments directly and asked them to search their physical pathology drawers for glass slides that had never even been digitized. Engy recalls demanding: “Net new slides. Never before has this patient entered a model.” Even when researchers push back with philosophical arguments—claiming, for example, that if a model is performing worse than random on a given task, a little contamination hardly matters—Engy remains unyielding. She argues that performing worse than random is itself a red flag signaling serious underlying misalignment that demands explanation. To protect the integrity of their assessments, Protege instituted what Engy terms “sealing a membrane”: a strict moratorium dictating that any patient or dataset that has ever touched a pre-training or mid-training pipeline is permanently barred from being used in an evaluation or benchmark.

- Sourcing independent data proved far harder than expected because approximately 80% of readily available electronic health data had already been sold for model pre-training and fine-tuning. - To produce untainted oncopathology benchmarks, Protege sourced physical glass slides that had sat un-scanned in hospital drawers so the digital whole-slide images were completely net-new to any neural network. - Engy rejects researcher dismissiveness around benchmark contamination: “Yeah, but like worse than random could be a detection that there is serious misalignment to like, why is it doing worse than random? We should just care that this patient has not entered training previously.”

---

`32:41` The Credentialing Paradox: Licensing Human Doctors vs. Unleashing Uncertified AI

Engy frames the current regulatory landscape around medical AI as a glaring double standard when compared to the stringent barriers placed on human clinicians. The United States heavily relies on importing physician and nursing talent from abroad—particularly in sectors like long-term care, which depends extensively on nurses educated in developing nations. These healthcare workers are subjected to grueling education, extensive credential verification, and demanding state board examinations before they can touch a patient. Even an American physician fully licensed in one state cannot freely practice in another without jumping through arduous re-examination and reciprocity hoops.

Yet, as Engy points out, frontier AI models are routinely deployed into clinics and health systems without any standardized credentials whatsoever. Often, the sole basis for their deployment is an unsubstantiated marketing claim from the vendor asserting that their AI outperformed a small, arbitrary cohort of internal physicians on an internal test. Engy stresses that health, personal finances, and education represent the foundational pillars of human capital. When models fail or behave unpredictably in these high-stakes domains, it risks triggering widespread, catastrophic public mistrust in artificial intelligence as a whole.

Engy puts the discrepancy in stark terms: “And then we have these AI tools that are unleashed in healthcare systems or in kind of practices with absolutely no credentials, other than the fact that the maker says, compared to some physicians we have, the AI beat it.”

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Human Credentialing vs AI Model Deployment accDescr: A comparison showing the rigorous examination required for human clinicians versus the unregulated claims used to deploy clinical AI models.

subgraph HumanClinicians["Human Clinical Workforce"] A["Imported or Domestic Clinicians"] --> B["Rigorous Study & Clinical Training"] B --> C["Strict State-by-State Board Exams"] C --> D["Certified for Clinical Practice"] end

subgraph MedicalAI["Medical AI Models"] E["AI Model Released by Vendor"] --> F["Self-Reported Vendor Benchmark<br/>('Beat Our Doctors')"] F --> G["Zero Standardized Credentials"] G --> H["Unleashed into Clinical Workflows"] end ```

---

`34:20` The Myth of Self-Regulation and Protecting Public Trust

Daisy and Eva note that the medical industry currently tolerates a loose regime of self-regulation and self-governance under the comforting assumption that AI is merely an assistant. Stakeholders tell themselves that because a licensed physician sits in the loop to review the output, human oversight will effortlessly catch any model hallucination or clinical error. A similar hollow safeguard appears in consumer AI products like ChatGPT, which display ubiquitous disclaimers stating that their answers do not constitute formal medical advice.

In practice, however, these safety nets fall apart because human psychology leans toward automation bias: people naturally trust information produced by computers and rarely possess the time, context, or skepticism needed to dispute it. The hosts express relief that an independent third party like Protege is stepping up to serve as an objective referee grading these models, rather than allowing the AI developers to grade their own work. The episode closes with thanks to Engy for her work safeguarding clinical AI, followed by standard network sign-offs and legal disclosures noting that Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) may maintain investments in the companies discussed on the podcast.

## Notable quotes > `25:00` It's so obvious why the creators of the models shouldn't be the ones releasing the evals and why people shouldn't be allowed to grade their own homework. — Daisy Wolf

> `20:00` At some point, a task will be so expert, so high risk, that testing at point of care will become really warranted. — Engy Ziedan

## Mentioned Daisy Wolf, Eva Steinman, Engy Ziedan, Protege, Indiana University, The New York Times, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Tulane University, Bobby, AWS, Uber, George Akerlof, OpenEvidence, Nature, arXiv, Medicare, Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program, ChatGPT, Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)

## Video description Daisy Wolf and Eva Steinman are joined by Engy Ziedan, co-founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Protege, to discuss why medical AI has a measurement problem, and why scoring well on a benchmark doesn't necessarily mean a model is ready for the hospital. Engy explains why healthcare AI needs independent evaluations that go beyond static exams and measure how models actually perform in real-world clinical workflows. They explore the risks of subtle bias and misalignment, why the same model can rank differently depending on how it's prompted or tested, and what happens as AI becomes more personalized and changes faster than traditional healthcare quality systems can keep up. The conversation also gets into Protege's role as an independent evaluator, how contaminated training data can undermine benchmarks, and why the future of medical AI may require continuous monitoring rather than occasional testing.

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中文简报

Protege警告:医疗AI擅长应试却难以胜任实际临床任务 医院若依据供应商的考试分数引入医疗AI,将面临严重的临床失误风险,因为高达80%的电子健康数据已被污染,且模型在实际工作流中缺乏独立的实时评估。 Engy Ziedan详细阐述了为何静态的多选题医疗考试无法衡量临床能力,指出模型在考试中可获得92%的分数,但在实际临床任务中却骤降至45%。她警告称,普遍存在的数据污染——多达80%的现有健康数据已被纳入训练集——导致模型死记答案而非进行逻辑推理,这迫使Protege去寻找完全未数字化的实体病理切片来构建未受污染的基准。讨论审视了AI供应商在为自家工具打分时所面临的商业利益冲突,并将人类临床医生所需的严格资质认证与临床AI未经核准的部署进行了对比。最终,Ziedan认为回顾性监管框架对于智能体模型而言过于迟缓,主张在各个专业临床子节点上实施持续、实时的独立监督。 医疗AI表现出严重的衡量差距:模型在静态执业考试中得分可超92%,但在真实临床任务中却降至45%,这凸显出基准性能并不能反映其是否具备医院投用就绪度。 (20:00) 普遍的数据污染削弱了基准的有效性,数据合作伙伴报告称,多达80%可获取的电子健康数据已被授权用于模型训练。 (30:00) 医疗AI中微妙的对齐偏差引发了埃奇沃斯盒式冲突,即保险公司的智能体自动化拒绝理赔,而医院的智能体则最大化追回收入,使患者身处夹缝且失去自主权。 (10:00) 人类临床医生需经历十年的教育、住院医规培以及州执照考核,而医疗AI模型却仅凭供应商声称的说辞,在没有标准化凭证的情况下直接部署至临床工作流中。 (32:41)

Reading summary

Engy Ziedan, co-founder of Protege and health economics professor, argues that medical AI cannot rely on static multiple-choice benchmarks or vendor self-assessments due to severe information asymmetries and life-or-death risks. Static Test Scores Versus Real-World Clinical Practice (20:00) Frontier models frequently achieve high scores on standardized medical examinations, yet these results fail to reflect performance in clinical environments. Host Daisy Wolf notes that models can score up to 92% on licensing exams while falling to 45% on actual real-world clinical tasks. Evaluating models against physician answers also encounters clinical habit and bias, such as orthopedic surgeons who idiosyncratically favor total versus partial knee replacements. Ziedan emphasizes that static multiple-choice evaluations do not measure whether a system can aggregate tasks safely in operating rooms or improve patient survival rates. The Economics of Healthcare's Information Asymmetry (6:30) Ziedan draws on George Akerlof's 'market for lemons' model to highlight the structural knowledge gap between healthcare providers and patients. Unlike consumer services like Uber, AI does not carry a zero marginal cost; buyers absorb token expenses, onboarding time, and substantial malpractice liability risks. Empirical health economics demonstrates that having a verified doctor in a family network measurable lengthens extended family lifespans, underscoring the deep value of nuanced human judgment. Subtle Misalignment and Conflicting Economic Incentives (10:00) Beyond catastrophic errors like immediate mortality, healthcare AI faces pervasive, subtle misalignment driven by conflicting corporate incentives. Ziedan illustrates this using an Edgeworth box dynamic where insurer AI agents automate coverage denials to minimize payouts, while hospital AI agents maximize revenue recovery, leaving the patient caught in the middle with zero agency. Independent oversight is needed to prevent models from prioritizing organizational business rules—such as suppressing out-of-network referrals or checking unpaid bills before issuing prescriptions—over patient welfare. Widespread Contamination and Sealed Evaluation Membranes (30:00) A critical barrier to evaluating clinical models is widespread dataset contamination, which leads models to memorize answers rather than reason clinically. Sourcing untainted validation data proved challenging for Protege, as up to 80% of readily available electronic health data had already been licensed for model training. To evaluate oncopathology models reliably, Protege had to source un-scanned glass slides from hospital storage drawers, instituting a 'sealed membrane' policy that permanently excludes any patient data previously exposed to training pipelines from being used in benchmarks. The Credentialing Double Standard and Automation Bias (32:41) A sharp regulatory discrepancy exists between the rigorous credentialing required for human clinicians and the deployment of medical AI. Human doctors undergo extensive residencies, standardized clinical examinations, and state-by-state licensing before treating patients, whereas AI models enter clinics based largely on promotional vendor brochures claiming superiority over internal doctor cohorts. Relying on physicians to catch AI errors in real time is undermined by automation bias, where overburdened clinicians naturally default to trusting computer-generated outputs. Ziedan rejects relying on federal regulators to solve AI evaluation, citing the decade it took to assess Medicare readmission policies. Instead, Protege advocates continuous, independent point-of-care monitoring to detect subtle clinical drift before uncertified models compromise patient trust.

精炼阅读摘要

Protege联合创始人兼首席科学官Engy Ziedan指出,前沿AI模型在静态医学考试中获得高分并不等同于具备真实的临床安全性;由于医疗领域存在严重的信息不对称与商业利益驱动,行业亟需独立的第三方评估机制与严禁数据污染的测评基准,以防止隐性偏差并重建公众信任。 静态基准虚高与临床能力的现实脱节 (20:00) 许多通用大模型在标准化医学考试中能拿到92%以上的分数,但在真实的临床任务中得分可能骤降至45%。Daisy Wolf指出,在多选考试中拔得头筹并不意味着模型具备执业能力,就如同优异的MCAT成绩无法证明考生能胜任外科手术。现实中,即使模型在人类医生评估的70万对问答上表现良好,这类通用评估也无法反映诸如脊柱手术等高风险场景下的真实任务执行能力。 此外,静态测评往往受到医生个体执业习惯与偏见的干扰。例如在膝关节置换手术中,不同骨科医生对全膝或单髁置换存在固化的个人偏好;如果AI提供了与某位医生不同的建议,传统基准往往直接判定模型出错。同时,多选题答案顺序的轻微变动或提示词差异便可能导致肿瘤病理等复杂领域的模型得分剧烈波动,表明模型可能仅仅是记住了题库,而非真正掌握了临床推理逻辑。 不对称市场中的隐性偏差与利益博弈 (6:30) 从经济学视角来看,AI的使用存在实际的边际成本,包括Token计费、员工培训时间以及极具破坏性的医疗事故概率。医疗行业存在类似于“柠檬市场”的信息不对称,患者无法有效核验复杂的临床决策。Ziedan以埃奇沃斯盒(Edgeworth box)模型比喻:保险公司的AI代理旨在最小化赔付并自动生成拒赔理由,医院的AI系统则致力于对抗预先授权以最大化收入回收;由于缺乏独立的监督裁判,夹在中间的患者丧失了自主权,模型极易被机构利益操控,进而出现压制院外转诊或优先催缴欠款等隐性失准现象。 与此相对,客观的AI工具亦有潜力消除人为偏见。临床病历常充斥着对患者的主观偏见(例如记录“面容邋遢”并将身体剧痛草率归咎于心理疾病),而环境收音技术(ambient listening)能将医患对话直接转录为客观的SOAP病历,剔除人为偏见以确保后续治疗的客观性。然而,这类积极效能往往未被现行的静态质量评估框架所涵盖。 数据污染危机与物理级隔离测评 (30:00) 独立评估面临的核心障碍在于基准数据的严重污染。许多医疗数据合作伙伴持有的电子健康数据中,多达80%已经授权给大模型用于预训练或微调,导致模型可能仅靠记忆作答。面对学术界对污染容忍度的辩解,Ziedan坚持认为,即便是低于随机概率的表现也是模型严重失准的预警信号,必须查明原因。 为确保被测模型从未见过患者案例,Protege建立了“密封膜”(sealed membrane)机制,明确规定凡是接触过预训练或中途训练的数据集,永久禁止进入评测基准。在肿瘤病理领域,该团队直接从医院病理科调取存放在物理抽屉中、尚未被数字化的玻璃玻片,通过数字化全新未公开切片,构建完全未被任何神经网络摄取过的评估基准。 资质准入悖论与第三方独立仲裁必要性 (32:41) 人类临床医生的执业面临极其严格的准入门槛——即便是在发展中国家接受教育的护士或跨州执业的美国本土医生,也必须经历长达数年的住院医师培训、背景审查和各州委员会考试;与此形成鲜明对比的是,未获任何标准化凭证的AI工具仅凭开发商声称“在内部测试中击败了部分医生”的宣传册,便被直接部署进医院核心工作流。Daisy Wolf强调,不能允许模型开发者自行给作业打分,否则买方在面对相互矛盾的厂商宣称和学术论文时将无所适从。 面对自动化偏见(automation bias),仅靠“医生在回路中”(human-in-the-loop)或免责声明无法杜绝隐患,因为医护人员在繁重工作中往往倾向于盲信计算机输出。联邦政府在数字基础设施建设上动作迟缓,像医保再入院惩罚项目等回顾性质量评估往往需要耗费十年才能得出结论,根本无法适应实时演进的智能体AI。因此,Protege主张在各个临床细分节点(如环境转录、临床试验匹配和免疫肿瘤病理分析)建立统一的评测平台,在评估暴露模型缺陷后,直接开具定向补强数据方案,以动态、透明的独立仲裁护航医疗AI的临床落地。 当前医疗AI正处于将模型直接推入工作流的快速部署期,但依靠自我监管、免责声明与回顾性行政审计均无法解决隐性失准。建立物理级隔离的纯净数据集与独立、实时的动态评估机制,已成为决定AI能否在生死攸关的医疗场景中获得长期公众信任的核心前提。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 本期节目由 Daisy Wolf、Eva Steinman 与 Protege 联合创始人兼首席科学官 Engy Ziedan 共同录制,于 2026 年 8 月 24 日通过播客 RSS/网络平台发布。节目主要围绕医疗 AI 面临的“度量危机”展开,深入探讨了为何在基准测试中表现优异的模型并不代表已准备好进入医院临床,以及为何行业亟需独立的第三方评估机制与持续监测体系。 ## TL;DR 对谈深入拆解了医疗 AI 从标准化考试高分走向真实复杂临床工作流时的断层与脆弱性,指出多选题刷榜与严重的数据污染掩盖了隐性偏见和未对齐风险。面对医院与保险公司利用 AI 进行利益博弈而导致患者话语权被剥夺的困境,静态的学术评估已完全脱节。为此,Protege 提出了基于物理级纯净数据隔离膜的密封测试集方案,倡导建立全天候的独立“监护者”体系与垂直子节点评估飞轮,以打破商业厂商“既当运动员又当裁判员”的治理真空。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场对话兼具卫生经济学的严谨思辨与深居产业一线的敏锐洞察,语调冷静、客观且直击行业痛点。主持人的敏锐追问与嘉宾扎实的学术及创业背景碰撞出强烈的警示意味,从荒诞的“无证 AI 行医”反差到数据污染的严峻现实,叙事节奏层层递进,既充满对公共卫生安全底线的深层忧患,又展现出以硬核工程方案构建行业新秩序的建设性力量。 ## Bulletin - `20:00` 医疗 AI 存在严重的度量危机:模型虽然在执照考试(如 USMLE)等静态选择题中能拿到 90% 以上的高分,但在复杂、高风险的真实世界临床任务中得分可能骤降至 45%,暴露了应试跑分与临床能力之间的巨大鸿沟。 - `30:00` 静态基准测试正面临严重的数据污染问题,高达 80% 的电子医疗数据已被用于模型训练;评估方不得不深入医院物理抽屉调取从未数字化的全视野病理切片,并建立“密封隔离膜”以确保测试集纯净。 - `17:15` 传统医疗质量监管(如基于价值的采购 VBP)存在 6 到 12 个月的事后滞后性,完全无法适配动态进化的 AI,行业迫切需要建立全天候运行的实时“监护者”(Watcher)来即时拦截失齐与偏见。 - `12:30` 在垂直 AI 领域处于“每个人都在管,但实际上谁也没管”的治理真空下,商业供应商天然缺乏自揭短板的动机,促使行业急需具备“密封测试集与靶向修复”飞轮能力的第三方独立裁判员。 ## Key takeaways - `00:00` 基座模型的实用性上限直接受限于其可用的训练数据,单纯依赖合成数据存在局限,高质量的多模态真实世界数据(RWD)是定义前沿模型能力的关键基石。 - `05:00` 根据卫生经济学中的“享乐定价法”,AI 技术的边际成本并非为零,企业需承担 Token 费用、接入成本与出错风险,因此必须依靠鲁棒的评估体系实现合理市场定价。 - `07:30` 医疗领域存在极高的信息不对称,仅凭通过数千道选择题就让 AI Agent 上岗接诊,其安全基准完全无法与经历近十年专业训练和严苛临床实战的人类医生相提并论。 - `10:00` 在保险公司 AI(追求控费)与医院端 AI(追求营收)的“埃奇沃斯盒”博弈中,夹在中间的患者缺乏代理权与话语权,极易承受因系统商业利益偏向带来的结构性失齐伤害。 - `11:20` 环境声学记录与临床转录技术(Ambient AI)通过忠实记录客观医患对话并结构化输出 SOAP 病历,展现了消除人类医生主观歧视与偏见标签的积极潜力,但该增益未被现有基准纳入考量。 - `12:30` 下游垂直领域 AI 厂商在接入底座后往往宣称自己排名第一,商业利益导致厂商缺乏主动暴露系统失效边界的动机,市场极度缺乏保持安全距离的独立第三方评估机构。 - `14:45` 模型的基准测试表现对提示词工程及多选题选项顺序极度敏感,表明模型可能仅是死记硬背了答案分布而非掌握真正的临床推理,凸显了测试集污染的严重性。 - `16:00` 随着模型引入测试时训练(TTT)与个性化微调,静态单次测评和传统学术同行评审因耗时过长已彻底作废,若评估脱节蔓延可能重蹈公共卫生灾难的覆辙。 - `17:15` 面对 AI 的高度主动代理性,需建立全天候实时“监护者”(Watcher),在诊疗现场的毫秒级节点拦截由于商业逐利诱导或环境输入偏差引发的失齐风险。 - `21:00` 海量医生标注的问答对(Q&A)脱离了具体高风险临床工作流,无法评估模型在实际手术或诊疗场景中对患者最终临床成效与死亡率的真实影响。 - `21:40` 临床真实评估面临医生个体“黏性偏好”的挑战,当 AI 水平逼近或超越平均医生时,单纯依赖大数定律召集更多医生投票已不可行,迫切需要现场点对点测试。 - `22:30` 在细分垂直子节点中,Prompt 统一规范、测试线束构建以及拒绝回答处理等微小工程决策,往往会直接颠覆模型的最终评测排名。 - `26:15` Protege 构建了“密封测试集定位缺陷 $\rightarrow$ 精确匹配靶向医疗数据补强 $\rightarrow$ 闭环快速微调验证”的飞轮生态,形成了相较于模型开发商与政府机构的比较优势。 - `28:40` 当前 AI 在医疗系统中的实际定位是“坐在副驾驶座”,评估必须深度纳入真实人机协作(HCI)中的抵制、盲信等心理与行为偏差,而非仅仅跑回顾性静态分数。 - `30:00` 为彻底杜绝 80% 医疗数据已被训练采购带来的污染,基准评估需建立严格的“密封隔离膜”,甚至直接采用从未数字化扫描过的实体医院全视野病理切片。 - `32:15` 具有丰富经验的海外医护进入美国执业需面对极尽严苛的资质重审,而完全缺乏权威准入认证的医疗 AI 却凭开发商单方宣传被直接释放入诊所,暴露了巨大的信任危机。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` 医疗 AI 的评估盲区与 Protege 的诞生 数以亿计的用户每天都在使用 ChatGPT 询问自身的健康状况,但究竟谁在确保这些输出的答案既安全又准确?医疗 AI 模型即使能在标准化医学测试中答对成千上万道题目,放到真正的医院临床流程中依然可能彻底崩溃。传统测试往往只聚焦于“冰山露出水面的一角”——即灾难性的失误和明显的未对齐(misalignment),却忽略了更为隐蔽的细微偏见以及真实工作流程的适配度。针对医疗 AI 这一严重的“度量危机”,Daisy Wolf、Eva Steinman 与 Protege 联合创始人兼首席科学官 Engy Ziedan 展开了深入对谈。 作为印第安纳大学的卫生经济学助理教授,Engy Ziedan 的学术成果曾获《纽约时报》报道并被美国疾控中心(CDC)引用。谈及创立 Protege 的缘起,Engy 回忆起自己博士毕业两年后在杜兰大学担任助理教授的时光。当时正值疫情暴发,她迫切需要获取两天前的高时效性数据来快速发表论文,而这在当时几乎不可能实现。她结识了彼时在数据服务公司工作、提供 AWS 算力实例与数据对接的 Bobby。两人在此后几年未有交集,直到 2024 年 2 月,Bobby 突然从个人 Gmail 邮箱给 Engy 发送了一份只有一页的 Google 文档。文档以纯人工手写、极其朴素的文风开篇提问:“关于未来,我们确信什么?” ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Protege 创立核心逻辑演进 accDescr: 展示从互联网数据被爬取殆尽,到真实世界垂直数据训练,最终走向严格独立评估的逻辑流程 subgraph Phase1["数据瓶颈"] A["公开网页数据抓取殆尽"] --> B["模型能力受限于可用训练数据"] end subgraph Phase2["多模态真实数据介入"] B --> C["注入真实世界垂直领域数据<br>(临床视频/音频/机器人)"] C --> D["推动模型从消费级转向企业级工作流"] end subgraph Phase3["评估与定价闭环"] D --> E["真实临床环境独立评估 (Evals)"] E --> F["确立技术真实价值与市场定价"] end ``` 该文档提出的核心假说奠定了 Protege 的使命基石。Engy 对此阐释道:“当每次回顾那份文档时,其核心假设至今依然成立:模型的实用性上限将直接受限于其可用的训练数据(models are going to be inhibited in their usefulness by the training data available for them)。” 于是,Protege 的目标被确立为提供安全、对齐且能真正让 AI 为人类所用的数据教案。如今,行业内几乎所有前沿基座模型都曾采用过 Protege 的医疗数据进行预训练(pre-training)和中途训练(mid-training)。Protege 的数据业务已横跨多模态领域: - 涵盖人体内部视角的 100,000 条内窥镜手术视频; - 真实的宠物兽医诊疗音频与记录; - 机器人操作维度的 3D 物体数据(例如利用各种形态的杯子训练机械臂预估物体的抓取重量)。 Daisy 与 Eva 指出,行业曾一度寄希望于合成数据(synthetic data),但目前市场已普遍认识到人工预设场景生成的数据存在严重局限,真正具备定义前沿模型能力的是高质量的真实世界数据(RWD)。 ### `05:00` 从基座模型需求到 Evals(模型评估)的经济学逻辑 在创业初期,Protege 原本雄心勃勃地计划为海量的 AI 初创企业提供服务,但很快发现核心客户群体压倒性地集中在超大型基座模型(Foundation Models)公司。这些客户的发展路径经历了两大阶段: 1. **消费端场景渗透**:早期关注 AI 能否进行流畅智能的对话、是否具备安全性与对齐性,以及在医学通识上是否合理; 2. **企业级高阶替代**:基座模型厂商逐渐意识到企业端蕴藏的巨大变现潜力,开始探索 AI 在复杂知识工作中的任务聚合能力、自动化水平以及直接替代特定业务流的可能性。 客户对于“如何证明自己的模型是业内顶尖”产生了极其强烈的需求,这促使评估机制(Evals)成为不可或缺的一环。面对“大众日常使用 AI 并不关心测试分数,为何行业必须要有 Evals”的疑问,Engy 从卫生经济学理论中的“享乐定价法”(hedonics)做出了解释:经济学家通常根据人们的支付意愿反推资产价值,正如学区质量决定房屋溢价。然而在 AI 领域,不能套用“坐 Uber 从不需要先看评估报告”的逻辑。 Engy 强调了这一核心经济学机制:“没有免费的午餐,这项技术的边际成本并非为零(this technology does not have a marginal cost of zero)。” 每一位企业或机构用户都在支付真金白银:包括 Token 消耗费用、繁琐的系统接入时间成本,以及承担系统可能出错引发灾难的潜在概率风险。因此,AI 市场若要达成价格平衡与出清,必须依靠严谨、鲁棒的评估体系,正如企业在雇佣正式员工前必须对其资质能力做深度背景审查。 医疗领域本身长期存在极其严重的“信息不对称”(Information Asymmetry)。如同二手车市场中卖方比买方掌握更多车况细节,医疗服务提供方(医生与医疗机构)对治疗手段的真实价值以及患者的身体状况,拥有远超患者的认知壁垒。学术研究表明,仅凭医学院入学考试微弱分差导致的随机录取,使得家庭中一旦偶然“多出一名医生”,整个家族的平均寿命都会显著延长数年。 当医疗 Agent 试图介入这种严重不对称的体系时,隐藏的风险被成倍放大。Engy 打了一个生动的比方:如果把引入 AI Agent 比作在全美现有 100 万名执业医生的基础上,再“扩招”100 万名新医生,而这批新医生仅仅是通过了一套 5,000 道题目的标准化选择题考试就获准上岗接诊,而人类医生则经历过近十年的严苛专业训练和远超 5,000 道题的实战历练,两者在面对极端高风险、容错率为零的临床任务时,其安全基准显然不可同日而语。 ### `10:00` 灾难性故障与隐性偏见:医疗 AI 对齐中的埃奇沃斯盒困境 Engy Ziedan 深入分析了医疗 AI 评估的两大维度:灾难性故障(Catastrophic Failure)与隐性偏见及价值对齐失真(Misalignment & Subtle Bias)。她直言,灾难性故障在定义上其实相对容易,比如可以直接量化为患者的死亡率,因此防范与捕捉它反而不是最复杂的工程;真正棘手的是隐蔽的价值失齐与潜藏偏见,这类问题极难定义,在复杂的临床实践中更难以察觉。 Engy 借用微观经济学中的“埃奇沃斯盒”(Edgeworth box)模型来形象拆解当前的产业结构:保险公司正在使用 AI 代理工具来优化自身流程,试图最小化赔付支出、最大化利润;另一端,医院则在自研或采购针对事前授权(Prior Authorization)与拒付申诉的 AI 工具,试图在契约曲线(Contract Curve)上最大化追回自身收益。在这场由两端自主代理工具(Agentic Tools)主导的博弈中,患者被夹在中间,沦为完全没有话语权与自主权(Agency)的被动客体。由于缺乏监管机构去裁定模型是真正具备优异性能还是存在利益偏向,系统极易陷入结构性失齐。比如,AI 在开具处方前先去核查患者是否欠医院医疗费,或者即便患者愿意自掏腰包去院外看病,医院的 AI 却强制禁止院外转诊,这些深嵌在商业逻辑中的隐性动机对患者而言极不公正。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 医疗 AI 在医院与保险公司博弈中的埃奇沃斯盒模型 accDescr: 展示保险端 AI、医院端 AI 与夹在中间毫无代理权的患者之间的利益对立 subgraph Insurer["保险公司端 AI"] I1["目标:最小化理赔支出"] end subgraph Patient["弱势主体:患者"] P1["毫无自主权与代理权<br/>承受利益冲突后果"] end subgraph Hospital["医院端 AI"] H1["目标:最大化追回营收"] end Insurer -->|"博弈与博弈平衡"| Hospital Insurer -.->|"利益挤压"| Patient Hospital -.->|"财务审核与转诊锁定"| Patient ``` 不过 Engy 强调,工具带来的影响并非全是负面的,环境声学记录与临床转录技术(Ambient Technology)就展现了打破医生主观偏见的巨大潜力。在 Protege 分析的数以千亿计的临床病历记录(Medical Notes)中,人类医生的手记常会出现主观色彩极浓的歧视性描述,例如“她看起来非常邋遢,倒是她丈夫在提一些有水平的问题”;这类记录背后的潜台词其实是在断定女患者“不可信”,进而可能将她的躯体疼痛武断地草草归咎于“心理问题”,导致进一步临床检查被直接搁置。相比之下,环境 AI 忠实记录医患对话并将其自动结构化为 SOAP 病历,洗净了人类记录者的主观臆断与偏见标签。当后续接诊的第三方医生调阅客观的临床表述时,就会意识到必须安排检查以深挖疼痛的真实病因。然而,这类积极消除偏见的临床增益,目前在常规的基准测试中却根本未被系统性评估。 - “灾难性故障范围很窄,比如你可以直接把它定义为死亡率。更难的问题是广泛的失齐与隐性偏见。”(“Because catastrophic failure is like narrow, like you could just define it as like mortality. The harder one is misalignment broadly and subtle bias.” —— Engy Ziedan) ### `12:30` “每个人都在管,但实际上谁也没管”:医疗垂直 AI 的独立评估缺失 当医生们每天在实际诊疗中依赖 OpenEvidence 等临床 AI 工具获取医疗建议时,究竟是谁在确保这些模型输出的答案是安全且正确的?面对主持人的提问,Engy 給出了一个尖锐的判断:“我认为答案是‘每个人都在管,但实际上谁也没管’(everyone and no one)。”她解释称,基础模型开发商在底层模型的安全对齐上的确投入了巨大精力,大量前沿研究也证实,引入高标准的医学数据进行预训练,往往能让底层模型在整体行为上更加值得信赖。但这些努力仅仅确立了基础模型通用的“出厂性格”(General Personality)。 真正的治理真空出现在下游:垂直领域的 AI 开发者(Vertical AI Builders)接入基础底座后,会根据具体的商业目标、服务级别协议(SLA)以及定制化效用函数对模型进行调整与微调。在这个环节,每家服务商的销售手册上都会声称自己的产品是业界最佳。Engy 犀利地指出,一旦所有人都宣称自己第一,那就意味着市场上没有任何人能搞清楚谁才是真正的最优;更致命的是,商业供应商天然缺乏动机去向客户指明自身产品在哪些边界场景下会崩溃。当下无论是代表医疗系统还是代表患者利益,行业内极度缺乏与厂商保持严格安全距离(Arm's-length Removed)、能够穿透水面下的冰山去独立审查深层偏见与系统性故障的第三方独立评估机构。 - “每个人都在管,但实际上谁也没管。如果每个厂商都自称第一,那就没有人知道谁才是最好的。同时,厂商也根本没有动力去指出自己的产品会在何处失效。”(“So I think the answer is everyone and no one... And so the no one is that if everyone says they are best, no one knows who's best. Also, there is no incentive to kind of pinpoint to where your product fails.” —— Engy Ziedan) ### `14:45` 基准测试污染与模型脆弱性:静态评测何以在医疗场景失效 学界与工业界的评测结果时常陷入剧烈的矛盾对抗。例如前不久《Nature》刚发表论文指出 OpenAI 的通用大模型在医疗表现上全面碾压医疗专用垂直模型,紧接着 arXiv 上就出现了结论完全相反的抗衡性论文,学术期刊往往也乐于刊登这类针锋相对的争议结论。Engy 结合 Protege 协助客户实测基准的实战经验指出,当前的评估框架存在严重的脆弱性:模型的得分对提示词工程(Prompting)极度敏感;尤其在肿瘤病理学(Oncopathology)等复杂场景中,仅仅微调多选题选项的排列顺序,模型的正确率就会发生剧烈波动。这种现象直接暴露了基准测试数据可能早已受到严重污染(Data Contamination),模型根本没有掌握真正的医学推理,只是像应试学生一样死记硬背了答案的选项排序。 对于动辄投入数百万美元采购 AI 系统的医疗机构而言,信息不对称带来了巨大的决策风险。然而在 Engy 看来,静态选择题层面的测评还只是最基础的“简单模式”。随着行业进入未来阶段,模型面临着数据漂移(Data Drift)的侵蚀;许多系统正在转向测试时训练(Test-Time Training)以实现实时自我演进,甚至每位医生都将拥有基于其个人病历上下文与权重微调的高度个性化私有模型。在这种动态进化的生态下,评估 2024 年旧技术却拖到 2026 年才完成同行评审发表的静态纸面论文已经彻底作废。Engy 严正警告,若放任这种评估脱节继续蔓延,医疗 AI 可能会重蹈 2010 年阿片类药物危机的覆辙——直到灾难演变为席卷全美的公共卫生浩劫,政府才后知后觉地成立国家工作组介入干预。 - “静态的问答评测,或者某篇基于 2024 年技术评估却拖到 2026 年才发表的论文,是远远不够用的。”(“These static question answers or like something in a paper where it was evaluated on a 2024 technology and published in 2026 just won't do.” —— Engy Ziedan) - 医疗大模型的评估得分对选择题选项的排列顺序极其敏感,这表明模型可能仅是记住了特定答案分布,坐实了基准数据集存在数据污染。 - 传统的静态单次测评无法应对测试时训练(TTT)与个性化模型带来的动态演进,传统学术评审周期过长,已完全无法匹配 AI 迭代的技术步频。 ### `17:15` 超越“价值医疗采购”:构建全天候“监护者”式的实时监控体系 为了给当前的评估困境寻找制度参照,Engy 回溯了美国联邦政府自 2007 年左右启动的“基于价值的采购”(Value-Based Purchasing, VBP)计划。该机制将联邦支付给医生和医院的约 80% 医疗费用与质量指标强行绑定,建立了庞大的国家评估网络。但传统的质量追踪是完全静态且事后滞后的:比如医生开具处方时把抗生素错开给病毒感染就会被扣分罚款,专业养老护理机构则会统计在看护周期内跌倒骨折的老年患者数量;这些监管报告往往要延后半年甚至整整一年才出炉。然而,AI 具备高度的主动代理性与瞬息万变的演进特征,这种按季度或年度回溯的监管逻辑在医疗智能化时代将彻底瘫痪。 尽管医疗行业常以“医疗开支占据全美 GDP 的 20%、绑定了 1.5 亿就业岗位中的 2000 万个”为由抗拒激进的流程变革,但 Engy 坚信正确的道路绝非妥协,而是必须建立全天候运行的独立实时“监护者”(Watcher)。在真实的临床交互现场,AI 系统的失齐往往极其微细:例如主治医生身边的本地 AI 代理可能会为了追求医疗机构的利润最大化,神不知鬼不觉地引导医生做出偏向高收益而非患者利益最大化的决策,此时监护者必须即刻向医生触发实时阻断预警;又或者,由于几位护士在床边交谈时对患者发表了负面评价,敏锐捕捉到对话的环境 AI 便过度迎合护士的偏见,给出激进且不符合指南规范的诊疗建议。这种发生于诊疗即时点(Point of Care)的动态风险,唯有依靠全生命周期的不间断监控系统才可能被精准捕捉。 - “真正该做的事情,是必须有一个全天候的监护者守护在侧。”(“The right thing to do is for there to be a watcher. All the time.” —— Engy Ziedan) - 传统的医疗质量监管机制(如 VBP)存在 6 到 12 个月的事后滞后性,完全无法适配具有高度代理权与自主演进能力的临床 AI 系统。 - 实时监护者的核心任务是在诊疗发生的毫秒级节点,拦截因商业逐利诱导或环境输入偏见所引发的模型非对齐输出。 ### `20:00` 基准测试的失效与“真实世界临床评估”的缺失 目前医学大模型存在严重的评测失真现象:一个模型在行医执照考试(如 USMLE)上可以轻松拿到 92% 的高分,但在真实世界的临床任务中,其得分可能直接暴跌到 45%。正如 Engy Ziedan 所指出的,在基准测试中拿到好成绩绝不意味着 AI 已经做好了进入医院的准备,这就像 MCAT(医学院入学考试)考满分并不代表这个人就能成为一名优秀的外科医生一样。 当前的评测体系经历了几次迭代。最初,开发者使用医学院考试风格的选择题,AI 在这上面表现惊艳,甚至击败了普通医学生并达到住院医生的水平;但这种静态考试既无法证明模型拥有真正的临床推理能力,也无法反映其对齐(Alignment)程度。随后,行业将难度提升,组织大量医生对比人类与 AI 的回答,甚至有的前沿模型宣称邀请人类医生评估了超过 70 万组“问题-回答”(Q&A)对。 然而,对于真实高风险医疗场景下的患者而言,这类 Q&A 数量毫无意义: “如果你作为一名即将接受脊柱手术的患者,医生告诉你这个模型通过了 5,000 或 10,000 道 Q&A 测试题,你会信任它吗?还是你更愿意信任一位已经做过 4,000 台该类手术的医生?” 在真实手术场景中,核心考量绝非模型的通用知识储备,而是“它是否曾处于该特定情境中、是否切实起到了正面作用”——例如充当手术任务聚合器时,由于其介入导致的意外死亡率是否异常,患者的康复指标是否有显著提升。现有的静态基准测试完全无法覆盖此类高风险场景。 此外,真实临床评估还面临一个长期被忽视的底层矛盾:医生个体具备极强的个人偏好(Preference)。例如在膝关节置换手术中,有的骨科医生习惯永远只做部分膝关节置换,而有的医生只要动刀就是全膝置换。当把一份真实病历输入模型,模型给出的方案如果与主管医生的实际操作相反,人们往往会直接判定“模型答错了”。但事实上,很可能是医生自身存在“固执的偏好”(Hysteresis/黏性偏好)。当 AI 的水平逐步超越普通医生平均水准时,单纯依靠大数定律去寻找更多医生来投票评判已经不可行,临床现场点对点测试(Point-of-care testing)因而成为刚需。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 医疗 AI 评测从考试题到真实临床的演进 accDescr: 展示医学 AI 评测从最初的医学院选择题,到多医生打分 Q&A,再到高风险真实世界任务评估的演化历程与核心缺陷。 subgraph Phase1["第一阶段:静态考试"] A["医学考试选择题<br/>(如 USMLE / MCAT)"] -->|"高分但无法反映真实推理"| B["击败普通医学生"] end subgraph Phase2["第二阶段:医生审核 Q&A"] C["700,000+ 问答对<br/>人工医生交叉评审"] -->|"脱离具体临床工作流"| D["泛化知识达标<br/>高风险情境依旧未知"] end subgraph Phase3["第三阶段:临床高风险场景"] E["垂直子节点与临床现场"] --> F["面对真实病历与决策"] F --> G["冲突:AI 建议 vs 医生个人偏好"] G --> H["迫切需要独立第三方仲裁与真实成效评估"] end Phase1 --> Phase2 Phase2 --> Phase3 ``` --- ### `22:30` 垂直子节点评估与 Protege 的“裁判员”角色 为了解决临床落地中的评估乱局,行业正转向在特定的“垂直子节点”(Subnodes)中进行统一横向评测。子节点的范畴极为细分,包括但不限于:环境式医疗语音转写(Ambient Scribing)、临床试验匹配推荐、护士工作流排班调度,以及肿瘤病理学(如通过分析 H&E 染色病理切片来推荐最佳搭配的免疫肿瘤治疗方案/IO Therapy)。 在这些高度垂直的赛道中,模型开发者们处于一种“黑夜中的船舶”(Ships in the night)互不知底的状态——每家公司都对外宣称自己的模型表现最好。这促使开发者们主动找上 Protege,希望其托管模型并进行标准统一的横向盲测,出具客观评估报告,以便摸清自身优势与改进空间。 在充当评估仲裁者(Arbiter)的过程中,Protege 必须处理一系列极具技术争议的评测细节: - **Prompt 标准制定**:究竟是由评测方统一定义 Prompt,还是允许模型自带提示词工程? - **测试线束(Harness)选择**:前沿模型是采用定制化构建的测试线束,还是使用内置的基线线束? - **拒绝回答(Refusal)处理**:当模型出现拒绝应答时,是赋予其平均分值,还是自动顺延切换到次优模型?这些微小的工程决策往往会直接颠覆模型的最终排名。 Protege 将这一系列标准化评测结果直接同步给医疗采购方(如大型医院与医疗健康系统),为采购决策提供透明真实的参考基准。 --- ### `26:15` 仲裁者的定位争议、飞轮效应与政府监管局限 针对外界“为什么应由 Protege 而非模型开发者或政府充当评估裁判”的质疑,Engy 从经济学中的绝对优势(Absolute Advantage)与比较优势(Comparative Advantage)进行了解读:Protege 不仅拥有业内顶尖的医疗健康数据底座,而且在同时推进医疗训练数据供给与模型评测时,拥有最低的边际成本。 其核心竞争壁垒(Right to win)在于“评估与修复”的闭环飞轮: 1. **密封测试集(Sealed Test Set)**:测试数据严格保密,永不外流,杜绝刷榜和数据污染; 2. **定位模型缺陷**:横向对比揭示出模型在特定医学属性或工作流节点上的不足; 3. **精准定向补强**:凭借庞大的高质量医疗数据集,Protege 能精确告知开发者“注入何种数据可以最高效修复该缺陷”,并在闭环中完成快速微调与强化训练。 在独立仲裁的公信力维护上,Engy 强调信任一旦丧失将是毁灭性的。因此 Protege 实行严格透明的评测规则:所有测试方法学在子节点内全量公开,参与竞测的模型开发者在流程结束前全程匿名,且各方享有无条件静默退出(Silent Exit)的权利。 谈及为何不等待政府部门主导医疗 AI 评测,Engy 直言这种等待是不现实且危险的: > “政府甚至无法让你直接在线报税,人们还得专门为在线报税发明一套商业市场。在 AI 领域,政府目前同样是在向产业界寻求合作,向工业界请教该如何评估 AI。” 传统政府政策的评估反馈周期极其漫长。Engy 提及自己多年前关于“按绩效付费(Pay-for-Performance)及基于价值的采购计划”的博士论文,该政策针对医院过高再入院率进行惩罚性扣款,学术界和政府整整花了 10 年、发表了数千篇论文才勉强理清这单一指标的效果。与这种滞后的制度性评估相比,AI 评估技术允许人们在更短时间内并行测试成千上万个维度的指标。 面对 AI 进入医疗的现实路径,Engy 强调:“当前医院的核心现实是:至少在今天,我们不是在用 AI 替换医生和护士,我们只是让 AI 坐在副驾驶座上(Ride Shotgun)。”而在真实环境中,人机协同(HCI)充满了变数——医生面对 AI 可能会顽固抵制,也可能会盲目乐观。现有的回顾性基准测试完全无法衡量这种真实人机交互中带电运行(Live-wire)的动态风险。 - **比较优势逻辑**:凭借处理医疗健康数据的深厚积累,Protege 在构建多节点盲测集与微调补强数据时的边际成本最低。 - **飞轮生态运作**:评测暴露出缺陷 $\rightarrow$ 精确匹配靶向医疗数据 $\rightarrow$ 引导算法再训练 $\rightarrow$ 动态二次验证。 - **政府评测短板**:传统医疗价值政策评估动辄耗费十年;AI 监管尚需依赖产业界的标准创新与技术自律。 - **副驾协作现实**:目前 AI 并非直接接管临床执业,评估必须融入人机互动(Human-Computer Interaction)的行为偏差与认知心理因素。 ### `30:00` 训练数据污染困境与“纯净数据隔离膜”机制 主持人指出,医疗 AI 往往只是机械地死记硬背答案,而作为实时接入数据的第三方评估机构,Protege 能够利用那些从未被出售给模型厂商的数据构建基准测试,以此验证模型究竟是具备了真正的临床推理能力,还是仅仅记住了既有样本。Protege 联合创始人兼首席科学官 Engy Ziedan 深入探讨了数据污染(Contamination)问题的棘手程度。她坦言,起初自己以为从 2 亿人、数千亿份病历记录的庞大资源池中筛选未被用于训练的数据轻而易举,但实际调研后却震惊地发现,高达 80% 的现有医疗数据早已被各家模型厂商采购并用于模型训练。如果将“独立评估”严格定义为“使用模型从未见过的全新患者数据”,团队面临着前所未有的工程与数据挑战。 为了彻底杜绝污染,Protege 在肿瘤病理学(Oncopathology)测试中采取了近乎极致的手段:直接联系合作医院,从实体病理抽屉中调取从未被数字化扫描过的全视野切片图像(Whole Slide Images),确保这是百分之百“纯新”(net new)的患者切片,从未流入任何模型的预训练或微调环节。Engy Ziedan 提到,尽管有些研究人员会提出哲学式辩解,认为某些模型在特定任务上“表现比随机猜测还要差”,微量的数据污染根本无伤大雅;但她反驳认为,模型表现低于随机水平恰恰可能是系统严重未对齐的信号。为了守住底线,Protege 建立了一道被称为“密封膜”(Sealing a Membrane)的硬性隔离机制:任何已知进入过训练流程的数据集或患者记录,都会被永久冻结,绝对不允许进入评估基准。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 医疗AI评估数据纯化流程 accDescr: 展示从海量医疗数据中剔除已训练数据,获取全新未扫描病理切片并建立隔离膜的过程 subgraph Source["医疗数据源与现状"] A["庞大医疗数据池<br/>(2亿人 / 数千亿份病历)"] --> B{"数据是否进入过训练?"} B -->|"约80%已售出用于训练"| C["受污染数据<br/>(直接弃用于基准测试)"] B -->|"寻找未污染数据"| D["联系医院物理病理抽屉"] end subgraph Purification["物理纯化与隔离流程"] D --> E["调取从未数字化扫描的全新切片<br/>(Net New Whole Slide Images)"] E --> F["物理与数字双重验证<br/>确保模型此前零接触"] F --> G["建立'密封隔离膜'<br/>(Moratorium / 严禁进入训练池)"] end subgraph Benchmark["独立评估系统"] G --> H["纯净基准评估 (Protege Eval)<br/>验证真实临床推理而非死记硬背"] end ``` - Engy Ziedan 强调数据隔离的严肃性:“And so it's a challenge for us. We're pulling net new data all the time. And now we have what I call like sealing a membrane, essentially this moratorium on any data set or any patient that has entered training. They are not allowed to be in a benchmark or an eval.” - 医疗数据市场的现状是约 80% 的既有可用电子数据已被商业化用于模型的预训练(Pre-training)或中期训练(Mid-training)。 - 面对极端测试需求,评估方必须深入医院物理档案库,从“未数字化的切片抽屉”里调取并扫描从未上网的物理样本。 --- ### `32:15` 医生严格准入与 AI “无证行医”的反差及其信任危机 Engy Ziedan 将当前医疗 AI 的准入现状与真实世界中的人类医护资格认证进行了尖锐对比。她指出,美国长期从海外引进专业医护技能(例如在长期护理领域大量依赖来自发展中国家的护士),这些专业人员即便拥有深厚经验,进入美国体系也必须经历极其严苛的培训、考核与跨州重考认证。然而具有讽刺意味的是,完全缺乏权威资质认证的 AI 工具如今却被直接释放到医疗系统和日常诊所中,其唯一的“凭证”竟然仅仅是模型开发商单方面的宣传,声称“在内部对比测试中战胜了某些医生”。 主持人与 Engy 共同探讨了这种监管缺位背后的系统性风险。大众目前往往抱持一种“医生只是将 AI 作为参考顾问,人类医生总能兜底把关”的侥幸心理,或者寄希望于 ChatGPT 等工具在输出建议时附带的“本内容不构成医疗建议”免责声明。然而现实是,普通大众甚至临床人员往往天生盲信计算机屏幕给出的结论,很少主动质疑。教育、金钱与生命健康是关乎人类资本的三大核心支柱,在这些关键公理上的任何系统性偏差与失控,都将引发对整个人工智能技术的深层信任崩塌。主持人总结强调,正因如此,行业亟需像 Protege 这样独立的客观“裁判员”来考核评分,而绝不能放任开发商既当运动员又当裁判员来“自我评测”。节目最后在对医疗 AI 独立安全监管的呼吁与致谢中结束。 - Engy Ziedan 针对医疗准入的强烈反差提出警告:“And then we have these AI tools that are unleashed in healthcare systems or in kind of practices with absolutely no credentials, other than the fact that the maker says, compared to some physicians we have, the AI beat it.” - 医疗 AI 目前处于高度“自我监管”和缺乏独立审核的状态,所谓“人类在回路(Human-in-the-loop)防范错误”在面对人类对计算机输出的天然信任偏见时往往形同虚设。 - 访谈以主持人致谢 Engy Ziedan 为临床 AI 安全所做的独立评估工作,以及播客平台订阅与 a16z 投资免责声明正式收尾。 ## Notable quotes > `00:00` models are going to be inhibited in their usefulness by the training data available for them — Engy Ziedan > `05:00` this technology does not have a marginal cost of zero — Engy Ziedan > `10:00` Because catastrophic failure is like narrow, like you could just define it as like mortality. The harder one is misalignment broadly and subtle bias. — Engy Ziedan > `12:30` So I think the answer is everyone and no one... And so the no one is that if everyone says they are best, no one knows who's best. Also, there is no incentive to kind of pinpoint to where your product fails. — Engy Ziedan > `14:45` These static question answers or like something in a paper where it was evaluated on a 2024 technology and published in 2026 just won't do. — Engy Ziedan > `17:15` The right thing to do is for there to be a watcher. All the time. — Engy Ziedan > `26:15` 政府甚至无法让你直接在线报税,人们还得专门为在线报税发明一套商业市场。在 AI 领域,政府目前同样是在向产业界寻求合作,向工业界请教该如何评估 AI。 — Engy Ziedan > `26:15` 当前医院的核心现实是:至少在今天,我们不是在用 AI 替换医生和护士,我们只是让 AI 坐在副驾驶座上(Ride Shotgun)。 — Engy Ziedan ## Mentioned Daisy Wolf, Eva Steinman, Engy Ziedan, Bobby, Protege, ChatGPT, 印第安纳大学, 纽约时报, 美国疾控中心 (CDC), 杜兰大学, AWS, Uber, OpenEvidence, OpenAI, Nature, arXiv, USMLE, MCAT, 基于价值的采购计划 (Value-Based Purchasing, VBP), a16z ## Video description Daisy Wolf and Eva Steinman are joined by Engy Ziedan, co-founder and Chief Scientific Officer of Protege, to discuss why medical AI has a measurement problem, and why scoring well on a benchmark doesn't necessarily mean a model is ready for the hospital. Engy explains why healthcare AI needs independent evaluations that go beyond static exams and measure how models actually perform in real-world clinical workflows. They explore the risks of subtle bias and misalignment, why the same model can rank differently depending on how it's prompted or tested, and what happens as AI becomes more personalized and changes faster than traditional healthcare quality systems can keep up. The conversation also gets into Protege's role as an independent evaluator, how contaminated training data can undermine benchmarks, and why the future of medical AI may require continuous monitoring rather than occasional testing. [Source](https://mgln.ai/e/1344/afp-848985-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/3f86df7b-51c6-4101-88a2-550dba782de8/episodes/e568464b-7a8f-4739-8a93-ae7df452a987/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=3f86df7b-51c6-4101-88a2-550dba782de8&awEpisodeId=e568464b-7a8f-4739-8a93-ae7df452a987&feed=JGE3yC0V)

Source quotes

[0:00] Engy Ziedan: models are going to be inhibited in their usefulness by the training data available for them [5:00] Engy Ziedan: this technology does not have a marginal cost of zero [10:00] Engy Ziedan: Because catastrophic failure is like narrow, like you could just define it as like mortality. The harder one is misalignment broadly and subtle bias. [12:30] Engy Ziedan: So I think the answer is everyone and no one... And so the no one is that if everyone says they are best, no one knows who's best. Also, there is no incentive to kind of pinpoint to where your product fails. [14:45] Engy Ziedan: These static question answers or like something in a paper where it was evaluated on a 2024 technology and published in 2026 just won't do. [17:15] Engy Ziedan: The right thing to do is for there to be a watcher. All the time. [26:15] Engy Ziedan: 政府甚至无法让你直接在线报税,人们还得专门为在线报税发明一套商业市场。在 AI 领域,政府目前同样是在向产业界寻求合作,向工业界请教该如何评估 AI。 [26:15] Engy Ziedan: 当前医院的核心现实是:至少在今天,我们不是在用 AI 替换医生和护士,我们只是让 AI 坐在副驾驶座上(Ride Shotgun)。

Source quotes

[25:00] Daisy Wolf: It's so obvious why the creators of the models shouldn't be the ones releasing the evals and why people shouldn't be allowed to grade their own homework. [20:00] Engy Ziedan: At some point, a task will be so expert, so high risk, that testing at point of care will become really warranted.

Original transcript

[0:00] Hundreds of millions of people ask Chachapiti questions about their health. Who, if any, is making sure that the answers that are spit out is safe and correct? Models are going to be inhibited in their usefulness by the training data available for them. There is no one that's looking beyond the iceberg of, like, catastrophic failures and misalignment. What is the importance of evals in this industry? No one ever asks, like, what is the value of Uber? Like, show me the eval. But in today's AI market, there is a need for the pricing to be accurate. And without understanding really what is valuable and what's value less technology, this technology does not have a marginal cost of zero. And so it became our mission to provide safe and aligned data that would make AI useful. The right decision may also be very different a year from now versus what it looks like today. As we move into the future... A medical AI model can ace thousands of test questions. and still fail at a job we actually need it to do. In this episode, Daisy Wolf and Ida Steinman sit down with protege co-founder and chief scientific officer NG Zidan to unpack why healthcare AI needs a much better way to measure performance. They discuss the gap between benchmarks and real-world clinical tasks, why subtle bias and misalignment may be harder to catch than catastrophic failures, and what happens when models evolve faster than the healthcare system can evaluate them. clinical settings, compare computing models, and identify where they actually need to improve. Welcome back to the A16Z podcast. I'm Daisy Wolf, partner on A16Z's bio and health team, joined by Eva Steinman, investor on our bio and health team as well. Today, we are talking with Engie Zieden, co-founder and chief scientific officer of Protege and a healthcare economist, assistant professor at Indiana University, whose work has been featured in the New York Times and cited by the CDC. Today, we are going to dig into why medical AI has a measurement problem, why acing benchmarks does not make a model ready for the hospital, and how Protege is building the referee. Engie, welcome to the podcast. Angie, let's start with your background. How did you first meet the protege team? What were you doing at the time and how has it evolved since then? Yep. I met Bobby when I was two years out of my PhD, an assistant professor at Tulane in my lonely office, and a pandemic had just hit. And I decided that I was going to write papers really fast. So I wanted data basically from two days ago. And that was impossible to obtain at the time. In his past life, he used to work for a data facilitation company and he offered AWS instances and access to data and connections. And it was a lovely experience. Then we started. Never spoke again, maybe after 2021, 2022. And suddenly in 2024, February, I get this email sent from a Gmail from Bobby. And it has an idea, a Google document in it. And in typical Bavi style, it was human written, very simple. And it said something like, what do we hold to be true about the future? And in it, it basically lays out this hypothesis, which has been partly true. When I look back at that document, I often read it every few months or so, which is that models are going to be inhibited in their usefulness by the training data available for them. And that goes beyond healthcare in any domain. And so it became our mission to provide safe and aligned data, essentially the teachings that would make AI useful for humans. And today, it's really a proud moment for us. Almost all the models have been pre and mid-trained on our healthcare data. We provide data in multiple verticals, audio, video, robotics. I go through Slack channels and I see what data sets people are talking about inside Perugé, From 100,000 endoscopy videos inside someone's body to like pet data. And I don't mean nuclear medicine. I mean, literally like veterinary care data to like 3D objects where the team is trying to predict the weight of the object being lifted. So the robot is trained on like a diverse set of like mugs. It's a fascinating world. Totally. Binding Bobby's background in data, he had the insight very early that like the internet was going to be scraped and that the frontier models were going to be defined. The best ones would have access to the best real world data and a very clear vision of how to get that to people. We should frame that one pager and put it in all of our own. Our ground source of truth. Thank you. Today, you kind of see the market now saying, oh, it's actually real world data that we want. And like synthetic data maybe is insufficient or like what I would call like [5:00] data in a contrived scenario generated in a contrived scenario is insufficient. And that was also in the document. Awesome. And so you mentioned you've been working with a lot of large language models since day one, since two years ago. And the world has obviously changed a ton since then. How has your relationship with your end customers changed in what you provide to them and how you work with them? Yeah, so first, as a small company, you kind of like want to get ambitious, but you don't know what ambition is really. So we had this ambition that we would service a lot of the startups that are building an AI early on. That turned out not to be true. that immediately very large foundation models became our modal customers. And they first wanted to conquer the consumer market. So use cases like, can it have an intelligent conversation with you? Is it aligned? Is it safe? Right? Is it reasonably sound in medicine and things like that. And then slowly and slowly. these foundation models began to see the amount of revenue available in enterprise settings, right? So it's like, can it task aggregate in knowledge work? Can it automate? Can it entirely replace certain workflows? How do we think about tasks? Jobs as a collection of tasks, right, are like a contrived human concept. And so the data requests we get today would probably sit between consumer needs and enterprise needs. And then, of course, there is the need for once I build this model, I would like people to know it's the best. And I'm not an arm's length removed from that conversation. in real world settings and thinking about just what we could do today, but really what is the right way to do it going forward? Like what holds to be true? Totally. And like talk to us for a second about why evals are important, right? Because you can obviously argue like hundreds of millions, billions of people use AI every day. They're not asking for an eval necessarily. Like about things from the perspective of economic theory, just given my background. And if you think about it, economists back out kind of value from things using an approach called hedonics, which is like someone's willingness to pay for the thing would give you the value of the thing. So the best example is school districts determine housing prices. because people's willingness to pay for better housing. No one ever asked, what is the value of Uber? Like, show me the eval. People just... paid and got on the ride and over time it became like a verb, you Uber it. But In today's AI market, there is a need for the pricing to be accurate, for equilibrium, for clearing. And without understanding really what is valuable and what's value-less technology, this technology does not have a marginal cost of zero, right? People are paying in tokens. They're paying with onboarding time. They're also paying with the probability that something would go wrong. They're taking that in. And so there is a need for evaluations that are robust, for it to really become integrated in knowledge work, high-risk scenarios, everyday businesses, right? Just like you would hire an employee and you would vet that they're adequate for the job. Before you hire AI, you need to vet that it's adequate for the job. Totally. There's so many trust issues in AI. And if you can prove why something is trustworthy, obviously the willingness to pay for that thing should be higher. I think also like in healthcare specifically, healthcare always had this asymmetry in the transaction. Sometimes people illustrate it with like a used car market where the seller of the car knows so much more than the buyer of the car. The sellers of care, the providers, know a lot more about what is valuable and value less technology and your current state of health than you may know, right? There's evidence of this. I often talk to the team about the effect of having a doctor in shows like just a random assignment and who goes to med school based on your grade in the med school entry exam, randomly assigns a doctor in the family and people live X years longer, the entire family. And so this asymmetry means that the providers of the care know a lot more than the consumers of the care. When you put agents on top of that, right, it's almost like saying we have a million doctors in America. We're going to hire a million more. Those additional million doctors have taken a lovely 5,000 question exam and passed it. We'll let them know. go ham and see how it goes. And we're comparing that to the million existing doctors in the U.S. who have gone through nearly a decade of specialized training, many more exam questions than 5,000, which is really wild to think about. To your point, healthcare is a really interesting industry because you have one, an asymmetry problem across all the key stakeholders, patients, providers, payers, you name it. And you also have incredibly high stakes, right? Like the self-driving car analogy where there's absolutely no room for a model to make an error. How do you guys think Yeah, so I think like when people talk about kind of like safety [10:00] I meant, right? There is the catastrophic failure, which is something goes wrong. Can you prevent that? Actually, I do think that that problem is easier. Because catastrophic failure is like narrow, like you could just define it as like mortality. The harder one is misalignment broadly and subtle bias. First, it's very hard to define. It's even harder sometimes to detect. Let's give an example. Today, there are a lot of AI builders who are building in... AI for insurance. And hospitals are also building an AI for prior auth or acquiring these technologies for AI for prior auth, medical denials and so on. You can think of it as like an Edgeworth box where there are two indifference curves that are coming together on a contract curve. One is trying to maximize total revenue and basically maximize. minimize payouts, and one is trying to maximize revenue recovered. right, they are both using agentic tools and the patient is in the middle. The patient has no agency. And there is no regulator that basically says, we think this model is really, really performing well, right? But it's actually misaligned. So examples I give my colleagues at Data Lab is like, is it fair to say that if you were to be prescribed a medication, it's okay for the model to first check if you owe the hospital any money? Is it fair to say that if the hospital said, don't refer people out of network, right, that that would be OK, even though your preference might be I'd like to go out of network sometimes, even though it's expensive. Right. But there are certain benefits also to the tools. It's not all negative. So, like, think about it. ambience technology broadly, right? I read medical notes. We have hundreds of billions of medical notes within ProRigée. And some medical notes will say things like, "She looks really disheveled. Her husband is asking good questions." What they're actually saying in the note is that she's not trustworthy. and suddenly you see a diagnosis that's like, oh, that pain she has is potentially mental illness. We're not going to clinically look into it. a tool that records a conversation between a patient and a physician kind of, um, Like cuts that out completely. What was said is now documented into a soap note. Right. None of that is in there. And now we have a very accurate clinical description of the conversation. A third party physician that's looking at the conversation would be like, oh, I should probably order a clinical exam to investigate the cause of this pain. I don't think it's just in her head. And so these benefits are not even being evaluated. open evidence, to ask medical questions to AI in the course of their practice every day. What, like who, if any, is making sure that the answers, you know, that are spit out in, say, a doctor's kind of clinical AI tool that they're using is, you know, safe and correct? So I think the answer is everyone and no one. So there's a huge effort within the foundation models to study the safety and alignment of these models before they're deployed. And specifically within healthcare. There's also research that shows that when they train on healthcare data, the model gets broadly aligned in other things, like it becomes more trustworthy overall. Right. And so there is a focused effort. But this is just kind of like out of the box. It's general personality. You might think of it that way, right? And then the vertical AI builders take that. and they tweak it and tune it to a specific cause, right? And an objective function, an SLA of a business too. They're... Every vendor of an AI tool, every vertical AI builder would have like a little brochure that says I invest. And so the no one is that if everyone says they are best, no one knows who's best. Also, there is no incentive to kind of pinpoint to where your product fails. And so really on behalf of like health care systems or patients, there is no one that is doing this independently. That's on arm's length removed. That's looking beyond the iceberg of like catastrophic failures and misalignment. Yeah, like recently there was a paper presentation. published in Nature saying that general AI was beating vertical-specific AI in healthcare. Like, you know, the open AI models were performing better than any healthcare-specific model. And then there was a competing paper on Archive that came to the exact same conclusion and [15:00] very short time span. Speak more to this problem and what is the solution here to actually, because these are real life and death decisions we're talking about in healthcare. It's not just something that's somewhat trivial. What is the solution to figuring out what the best models actually are. So I'll probably answer this by like answering it directly and then going back in history. I think like history tends to rhyme and repeat itself. And the issue that we're facing today isn't unique. Like the issue of evals and of medical technology is basically a constant ever since medical technology was invented. So the two papers came to different conclusions, whether out of the box frontier models are best or vertical AI builders and what recommendations is best. And in classic academia nature, you know, two papers like sit on opposite ends and like actually editors love that. They're like, oh, you know, we'll publish the thing that like is most controversial. But when we at least approach a kind of for our own customers do these benchmarks and evaluations, they're highly sensitive. They're sensitive to like how you prompted the model. They're sensitive, like especially like an oncopathology of like what based on the order of the multiple choice question answers, right? And some people think that that sometimes is evidence that the benchmark itself is contaminated, that the model has just memorized the ranking of the right answer, just like a student would. And so there's a problem and a problem of asymmetry of information. Um, And if you are attempting to spend millions of dollars on these tools to onboard them, you really want to know kind of which is best and which is best for what. Right. That, I would say, is level easy. That's just like the basic answer. As we move into the future, where these models face data drift, Or even every physician has his own model. Like you make someone's context now weights, like these really personalized models. Or there is like test time training where the model is constantly evolving. These static question answers or like something in a paper where it was evaluated on a 2024 technology and published in 2026 just won't do. Right. And so you risk not to fearmonger, but you risk a situation where we enter like the opioid epidemic when it peaked in 2010. only when people started saying, OK, National Task Force, we're calling it an epidemic, we're acting on it, let's move. We don't want to get there. To answer maybe in historical context, The government does a program since... maybe 2007, called value-based purchasing. To people who don't know what that is, that just means that 80% of what the government pays in care to physicians and hospitals is tied to quality. There's a whole national effort and government arms that basically define what's quality and track it. It's really static. So it would be examples like, in medical expenditures for physicians, they'll ask like, if you're a doctor, how many times did you prescribe antibiotic for something that looked like a virus? That's bad. That's a ding. That's a penalty. If you're a healthcare skilled nursing facility or nursing home, they'll say like how many patients fell and broke something, elderly people on your watch. And these reports tend to be retrospective, like a year later or six months later. We can't have that with AI. The technology is just moving too quickly. It's changing rapidly and it has a lot of agency. Maybe to that end, like, how do you think about then what the right balance is between ongoing monitoring versus quarterly annual reporting, especially when it comes to health care, where the technology is moving so fast, decisions are made, you know, at the point of care, but also, you know, literature may be evolving and, you know, the right decision may also be very different a year from now versus what it looks like today. makes a backseat and they're like, "Oh, you don't know what it's like. This is 20% of the GDP, 20 million of the 150 million jobs. Good luck." But if you were to really think about it as like, okay, forget all of that. What is the right thing to do? The right thing to do is, is for there to be a watcher. All the time. Right. That when my local AI agent as a physician starts to nudge me towards decisions that are maybe profit maximizing, but hurting my patient, I'm alerted. Right. When. a group of nurses realized that the AI is maybe recommending misaligned things because of a conversation they had about the patient that led the model to be overly eager, right? So I said something negative about the patient and now the model is overly eager, but it's actually not recommended [20:00] something safe. It's trying to benefit me as a nurse or my working hours, right? That there's a watcher that says that behavior is unacceptable. You can't discharge this person early because you have to leave early, right? Like, I don't think that this is an unbiased decision. Totally. Like you've said before, before that models, you know, can score up to like 92% on a licensing exam, but 45% on a real world clinical task. And so like acing a benchmark doesn't make an AI ready for the hospital, just like a perfect MCAT score doesn't make a, you know, a doctor doesn't make for a great surgeon. Like how, how are these benchmarks breaking? What's going on? So first there was like maybe tears to it. The first one was you, I think people admit to this and it wasn't perfect, is that they would take these like med school style questions and answers. Right. And they were doing remarkably well. They were beating the average med student. Right. That maybe at a level of a resident and so on. And that was an indication that the models are improving. It's hard to tell if that is true reasoning. It's hard to also tell if that means alignment is going up or down. It has no indicator for that. Right. started putting great effort into these kind of questions that the model would answer. And then they would compare them to physician responses. They would use multiple physicians to grade the response. They would use thousands of questions. Then they upgraded it to be like, um, Some models say they've had their physicians review more than 700,000 question-answer pairs by human physicians, which is a great effort. But if you are a physician and... Maybe I ask you like as a patient, right? You're about to get spinal surgery. They tell you this model, has passed like a 5,000 question, 10,000 question Q&A exam. Um, Would you trust it? versus would you trust like a physician that has done 4,000 of these surgeries? Right. What you care about actually isn't the general knowledge of the model. Like, that's great. I love that it's intelligent. I care. Has it been in this scenario before? And has it been helpful? So like, has it been in a spinal surgery as a task aggregator before? How many people have died unwarranted, like above average? How many people have had improved outcomes? That's what I care about. And so the benchmarks and evals aren't specific enough to these high risk scenarios. They also face, I think, what is often kind of brushed under the carpet. Like any occupation in the world, physicians have preferences, right? Like investors have preferences, right? Some of them are like risk loving. Some of them are not as risk loving. They have a beat. And physicians have a beat. So like we show a lot of these kind of graphs inside Projet where I showed on knee replacements, for example, I said there are physicians who never do a full knee replacement. He's only part of it. And then physicians who, if he touches a knee, it's a full knee replacement, never does partial. And that's his beat. You take this medical record, this real world case, and you put it in front of a model and you say, what would you recommend? And it would recommend the opposite of what the physician did. And you say, oh. Model's wrong. But actually, it could be that the physician is wrong. He has a sticky preference, a hysteresis almost. And so, We are also capped in our ability to evaluate them in real world setting, but we're also kept now in our imagination. It's like, what is going to happen when the model becomes better than the average physician? The answer simply can't be like, oh, so then you ask more physicians and you get the law of large numbers to help you out. At some point, a task will be so expert, so high risk. that testing at point of care will become really warranted. How do you do that? So, We think that there's two ways to do it. The first, Um, is that there are multiple vertical AI builders in what I would call like an identical subnode. So subnodes could be things like ambience inscribing, clinical trial recommendations, nurse workflows, scheduling. There are subnodes like... oncopathology. So like can the model like look at an H&E slide and recommend like the IO therapy that is best paired, right? Within these subnodes, our customers say us compared to others in the benchmark space is like ships in the night. I don't know if he's better than me. He says he's best. I'm best. And so what we have been pulled into is basically these... Kind of models say, can you host my model and have it take a unified evaluation, right, and produce kind of a report that evaluates us against each other? We would also like to learn where we are better than each other and where we can improve. And so we've been doing that. And it's been really interesting kind of seeing a role as an arbiter. [25:00] things like where do I draw the line of like, no, that's our decision, actually. Like, what should the prompt be? Should the frontier model have like a bespoke harness belt or should we use basically the built-in one, right? Because like some world models don't need a harness. What are you going to do when the model has a refusal? Are you going to put in the mean value, right? Or are you going to defer to like a second best model? Do these change the rankings of who's being evaluated? And so we create these kind of like evaluations within the subnotes. And our purpose is to share them with the consumers of these technologies. So in the case of that would ultimately purchase this or the hospitals that would ultimately purchase this so they know where they stand. It's so obvious why the creators of the models shouldn't be the ones releasing the evals and why people shouldn't be allowed to grade their own homework. That is an easy incentives issue to spot. But explain to me why a skeptic might say, arbiter of evals and truth. Like, can you explain to me why Protege is well positioned to do this? Yeah. So, I mean, there is like the idea of comparative and absolute advantage. I tend to explain it to my team as this way, which is like absolute advantage is like we're best at this. We're best at this healthcare data game. We're probably best in the market at it. Comparative advantage is like in everything we do, we have lowest marginal cost when we also facilitate healthcare training data and evals. Like between everything we do, we're also best at it among our own production function. And so we became really geared for it. that doesn't mean you have the right to win. We have the right to win here because it kind of naturally evolved is that once we do these evals in the subnode, right, we say once the evaluation is done and we hold this test set that never leaves, if you have a deficiency in an attribute that's now been revealed, right? we can tell you exactly what data would improve the model's performance on that deficiency. And because of the size of the data set we have and the various sources that we have, it's a very fast way for you to evaluate and then reinforce, right, where the model is failing with, like, new teachings. So it became that we are geared really up for this. There's also an incentive to completely remain impartial, right? idea, lack of trust destroys the entire network almost immediately. It's like explosive. And so you are really like held to what are you doing and how transparent are you being? So, for example, all the methodology is shared broadly with everyone in the subnode, you We don't reveal the names of the people, the vertical AI builders in the sub node until the very end. They have the right to silent exit and things like that. We think that we are better positioned than the government. Because the government's not going to do it. Yeah, a lot of people just say, like, why isn't the government doing this? Because the government's not going to do it. And, like, basically what's more unsafe, right, is like sitting there and saying, well, I'm going to wait for the government to do it. No, we think what's more safe is just do it, right? And then let people challenge you on it, but just do it. You know, the government can't even get you to file taxes online. Like, people have to invent, like, a marketplace online for that, to file for the government. And they just ask industry for help with this. With AI, yeah. is asking industry collaborators to help them identify how should they evaluate AI. But generally, like, pay for performance, value-based purchasing programs. Like a zillion years ago, I wrote my dissertation on this policy, which penalized hospitals for excess readmissions, a quality metric, right? You know, thousands of papers. It took like 10 years to evaluate. That's one question. Is it causing more readmissions? In AI evaluations, you can actually ask a thousand questions about always that we are not replacing doctors and nurses, at least not today, with AI in hospitals. We are kind of like allowing the AI to ride shotgun, right? And humans behave towards technology in a myriad of ways. That is a subject of study. It's called like human-computer interaction. They teach that in universities, right? Humans can dig their heels in. They can become overly optimistic, right? And these kind of benchmarks and evals that are retrospective, Thank you. fail to acknowledge or measure how in a live wire scenario, how [30:00] is the AI behaving? And so when you are tapped into that data live, as ProRJ is, you're really prime positioned to be answering these questions. Yeah, you also made the point earlier about AI just memorizing answers. And when... creating benchmarks, you can actually create them on data that has not been sold to all of the models out there. And so you can test whether the model has just, you know, memorized the answer or has the ability to do kind of clinical reasoning, correct? Yeah, I mean, the contamination issue, like we've had various debates about it. within Proger and with customers. I think, um, First, we had like, I didn't think that was even possible. I was like, okay, so we have like, 200 million people, you know, hundreds of billions of notes. I just need data that hasn't been ever given to anyone for training. And they were like, 80% of what we have has been given for training. And I was like, okay, they were like, if your definition of basically independent is a patient that the model hasn't ever seen before, then, you may have a challenge in front of you. And so for like the oncopathology example, we literally had to pull patients whose whole slide images had never been scanned before. We contacted hospitals and were like, in your pathology drawer, who hasn't been scanned before? And they're like, net new slides. I was like, net new slides. Never before has this patient entered a model. And that's very hard, but we know which patients have entered which models. We've given this data for pre and mid training. Of course, like sometimes, you know, you have these like philosophical debates with researchers and some of them say, oh, the model is like doing this. worse than random is doing really bad on this task. Who cares if there's a little bit of contamination? Like, sure, but it's not impacting the judgment. And I'm like, Yeah, but like worse than random could be a detection that there is serious misalignment to like, why is it doing worse than random? We should just care. that this patient has not entered training previously. And so it's a challenge for us. We're pulling net new data all the time. And now we have what I call like sealing a membrane, essentially this moratorium on any data set or any patient that has entered training. They are not allowed to be in a benchmark or an eval. to fascinating intersection of the market to sit at. Yeah, I mean, I think maybe the way to frame it is that – The U.S. imports a lot of physician skill from other countries, definitely in like long-term care. I think that market is dominated actually by imported nurses from developing countries like that skill. And they go through rigorous teachings and basically study, examination. You can't even have a doctor in the United States that's certified across states. Like they have to retake basically exams to become recertified again and so on. And then we have these AI tools that are unleashed in healthcare systems or in kind of practices with absolutely no credentials, other than the fact that the maker says, compared to some physicians we have, the AI beat it. Right. And that sits in a very perplexing way. People care about their education. They care about their money. They care about their health. These are like core human capital axioms. And so any misalignment in these human capital axioms. will read to a lot of like mistrust of AI generally, and we don't want that to happen. Totally. I think to your point before, we like, you know, all of this is just kind of being allowed to be self-governed right now and self-regulated because we're like, oh, well, it's just like, you know, the doctor is just consulting it, but we'll catch any errors. And every time we give medical advice to a patient on JAT-TBT, we're saying, you know, this is not medical advice. But to your point, like people trust what comes out of computers. They don't necessarily question it. that someone out there is, you know, grading these models and it's not just models themselves. Thank you so much, Angie, for coming on the show and for all of the important work you're doing to make clinical AI safe. Thanks for having me. Spotify. Follow us on X at A16Z and subscribe to our Substack at a16z.substack.com. Thanks again for listening, and I'll see you in the next episode. [35:00] note that A16Z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast. For more details, including a link to our investments, please see a16z.com forward slash disclosures. Bye.