Sinofsky Urges AI Labs to Treat Safety Failures as Software Bugs

AI Safety Language Is Destroying the Debate | Steven Sinofsky — Steven Sinofsky, Theo Jaffee, Sofia Puccini

Steven Sinofsky, Theo Jaffee, Sofia Puccini

Frontier developers risk triggering damaging regulation by dressing up routine coding errors as existential alignment threats instead of adopting basic engineering telemetry and vulnerability reporting.

AI-assisted summary of AI Safety Language Is Destroying the Debate | Steven Sinofsky — original source. Check the original for full context.

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Key ideas

  • Former Microsoft Windows division president Steven Sinofsky argues that AI safety vocabulary anthropomorphizes model behavior, turning routine engineering defects and statistical bugs into mystified concepts like 'misalignment.' (0:00)
  • Sinofsky warns that anthropomorphic language such as 'goal-seeking' and 'secretly coordinating' misleads lawmakers into crafting panicked, poorly targeted legislation like the 'Stop Rogue AI Act.' (20:00)
  • Rather than halting feature work for existential risk debates, frontier AI labs should treat an 'AI pause' as an operational sprint to build production-grade telemetry, logging, and CVE-style post-incident reporting. (6:50)
  • Recent security incidents involving labs like OpenAI and Hugging Face are characterized by Sinofsky as fundamental operational security (OPSEC) failures rather than emergent machine consciousness. (25:00)

Detailed notes

## Background This episode of MTS, hosted by Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini alongside guest Steven Sinofsky, was released on September 21, 2026, across podcast platforms. According to the episode description, the discussion focuses on how anthropomorphic terms like "alignment," "goal-seeking," and "rogue agents" obfuscate software engineering realities, arguing instead that AI failures should be diagnosed and resolved through traditional engineering disciplines like telemetry, debugging, and incident reporting.

## TL;DR Former Microsoft Windows president Steven Sinofsky argues that the modern artificial intelligence safety debate is being crippled by mystical, anthropomorphic language that frames ordinary software defects as existential or moral crises. Drawing parallels to early PC hacking, the ILOVEYOU virus, Y2K preparedness, and vintage bugs in Excel and Word, Sinofsky maintains that unexpected AI outputs are simply software bugs stemming from flawed statistical weightings rather than digital malevolence. He calls on frontier labs to end the habit of deflecting operational responsibility onto regulators and instead mature their engineering practices through standardized telemetry, CVE-style incident reporting, and disciplined operational security. Ultimately, he warns that persistent academic metaphors confuse lawmakers, risking reactionary and ill-conceived legislation like the Stop Rogue AI Act.

## Atmosphere & style The conversation carries a grounded, pragmatic, and wryly historical energy, contrasting the grandiosity of modern AI panic with the battle-tested realities of 1980s and 1990s software development. Sinofsky speaks with the unhurried confidence and sardonic humor of a veteran engineer who has survived multiple waves of congressional hysteria, seamlessly weaving tales of dorm room FBI raids and vintage dot-matrix printouts into cutting critiques of modern AI lab disclosures. The interplay between the hosts and Sinofsky feels like an urgent yet lucid briefing from a seasoned insider, deflating techno-theological hype with common-sense systems thinking.

## Bulletin - `00:00` Former Microsoft Windows division president Steven Sinofsky argues that AI safety vocabulary anthropomorphizes model behavior, turning routine engineering defects and statistical bugs into mystified concepts like 'misalignment.' - `20:00` Sinofsky warns that anthropomorphic language such as 'goal-seeking' and 'secretly coordinating' misleads lawmakers into crafting panicked, poorly targeted legislation like the 'Stop Rogue AI Act.' - `06:50` Rather than halting feature work for existential risk debates, frontier AI labs should treat an 'AI pause' as an operational sprint to build production-grade telemetry, logging, and CVE-style post-incident reporting. - `25:00` Recent security incidents involving labs like OpenAI and Hugging Face are characterized by Sinofsky as fundamental operational security (OPSEC) failures rather than emergent machine consciousness.

## Key takeaways - `00:00` AI safety rhetoric often mystifies basic software bugs: unexpected outputs or wrong tokens in an LLM represent statistical weighting errors rather than moral failures of alignment. - `00:00` Tech policy frequently cycles through maximalist overreactions, mirroring the 1983 FBI raid on 'The Inner Circle' hackers which exposed a complete lack of relevant computer crime statutes. - `05:00` Automotive engineering treats self-driving computer vision errors as life-critical bugs, contrasting sharply with frontier AI's tendency to philosophize failures. - `06:50` Frontier AI models remain in an immature research phase, lacking the diagnostic telemetry, audit trails, and step-by-step debuggers standard in mature production systems. - `10:00` Historical debugging at Microsoft—such as solving Excel's mysterious 1987 'SINDOGS' / 'send dogs' disk corruption glitch—relied on brute-force stress testing and tracing memory rather than assuming autonomous agency. - `12:15` Massive blast radiuses are a natural consequence of mass adoption, as seen when the ILOVEYOU virus combined Outlook and the early web to cause an estimated $12 billion in economic damage in 12 hours. - `15:00` AI labs cannot treat their models like alien monoliths dropped from the sky; builders retain the ultimate engineering responsibility to make software work reliably before shipping it. - `15:00` Stacking endless behavioral constraints onto complex models inevitably backfires, creating unpredictable edge cases and systemic instability. - `17:45` The successful mitigation of Y2K proves that industry consortiums and operational engineering accountability resolve systemic tech risks far better than top-down political mandates. - `17:45` Frontier AI incident disclosures resemble marketing communications instead of the rigorous, reproducible post-mortems typical of standard CVE vulnerability reporting. - `20:00` Academic metaphors derived from the 1956 Dartmouth conference lead lawmakers to mistake mathematical curve optimization for students 'cheating' and semaphores for spies 'secretly coordinating.' - `22:30` The term 'computer virus' gained alarming cultural traction in the 1980s by piggybacking on the HIV/AIDS epidemic, until defensive architectural engineering normalized cyber safety. - `25:00` Non-deterministic statistical models are already standard in fields like meteorology, where hurricane projection errors are debugged as algorithmic flaws without invoking supernatural forces. - `25:00` High-profile incidents across AI platforms like Hugging Face represent fundamental operational security (OPSEC) failures rather than issues of synthetic consciousness.

## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` The Misleading Vocabulary of AI Safety and the Dorm Room Raid of 1983

The episode opens with Steven Sinofsky cutting straight to his core critique of the artificial intelligence discourse: the terminology favored by the AI research community obscures what is actually happening mechanically under the hood. When systems fail, practitioners frequently declare that an AI has failed to be “aligned,” a framing that Sinofsky rejects as mystification. To him, an unexpected or destructive output simply means there was a bug in the software. Hosts Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini introduce Sinofsky—a16z board partner, author of the *Hardcore Software* Substack and book, former Microsoft Windows division president overseeing Windows, Windows Live, and Internet Explorer, and active on X as @stevesi. Speaking from the Foundation for American Innovation (FAI) offices in Washington, D.C., the hosts note the deluge of newly proposed legislative measures, such as New Jersey Representative Josh Gottheimer’s “Stop Rogue AI Act.”

Asked for his perspective on the regulatory scramble, Sinofsky explains that technology policy routinely passes through a maximalist phase where lawmakers indiscriminately throw bills against the wall. To contextualize the current panic, he recounts his experience as a college freshman in the fall of 1983. In a 100-person dormitory, only two students owned personal computers—Sinofsky and one other student. Nobody else understood why they had them or what they were for. Then, suddenly, federal agents in suits swarmed the dorm:

> “Literally, literally, G-men in suits crashed our dorm, confiscated the other guy's computer, and arrested him.”

The student was carted off alongside his 50-pound IBM PC XT and its massive monitor. It emerged that he belonged to “The Inner Circle” (or “Inner Ring”), one of the very first computer hacking groups. They had breached GTE TeleMail, an early dial-up electronic messaging service whose client roster included NASA and other branches of the United States government. The FBI conducted coordinated raids nationwide, only to run into an unprecedented legal roadblock: the hackers had violated no existing criminal statute. During the ensuing congressional hearings, lawmakers played scenes from the newly released movie *WarGames* to argue that high schoolers were poised to commandeer federal systems and launch nuclear missiles. It took several years for Congress to craft, and President Ronald Reagan to sign, the first federal computer crime statute. Four or five years later, when Sinofsky returned to Ithaca, New York, for his first homecoming and visited the Cornell computer science building, he stumbled upon an impromptu press conference announcing the discovery of the Morris worm—the first incident prosecuted under that landmark statute.

- **Dorm raid era:** Fall 1983, involving an IBM PC XT weighing 50 pounds. - **Target of hack:** GTE TeleMail, used by NASA and the U.S. federal government. - **Hacker collective:** The Inner Circle (also known as the Inner Ring). - **First federal prosecution under the resulting law:** Robert Tappan Morris and the Cornell-originated Morris worm (1988).

---

`05:00` Anthropomorphizing Bugs: Why “Misalignment” Is Just Flawed Statistics

Sinofsky stresses that having lived through the early computer crime scares makes him entirely comfortable with congressional hysteria, but he sees a severe flaw in how today’s debate is being framed. When lawmakers like Congressman Josh Gottheimer take to morning television to champion bills like the Stop Rogue AI Act, they are reacting to misleading metaphors propagated by the AI community itself. By describing software errors as failures of “alignment,” practitioners project human agency, moral deliberation, and rule-following onto algorithms, obscuring the plain reality that the code simply malfunctioned.

Drawing on decades of commercial software history, Sinofsky points out that engineers never treated productivity software malfunctions as spiritual or theological crises:

> “When Word ate your file and deleted all your content, we didn't think that demons had taken over Word and made it do things against the will of man.”

Engineers never sat around praying to “gods of alignment” when a spreadsheet calculated sums incorrectly. Whether code operates deterministically via sequential `if-then` branching or non-deterministically through statistical token prediction, failing to produce the desired result is still just a bug. If an LLM selects an inappropriate next token, its underlying statistical weighting is wrong. Sinofsky insists the industry must return to talking about software as software. For instance, if an autonomous vehicle’s full self-driving system barrels through a stop sign because its computer vision mistook the sign for a Christmas tree, engineers do not claim the vehicle was philosophically misaligned with winter holidays; they treat it as a catastrophic, life-critical software defect.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: AI Framing vs Traditional Engineering Framing accDescr: Contrasts how AI safety rhetoric describes software failures as moral misalignment versus how engineering treats them as bugs.

subgraph AI_Rhetoric["Current AI Rhetoric"] A["Unexpected Output / Failure"] --> B["'Failed to be aligned'"] B --> C["Anthropomorphic Framing: Intent, Moral Choice, Rogue Will"] C --> D["Result: Confused Policy & Panic Legislation"] end

subgraph Engineering_View["Traditional Software Engineering"] E["Statistical Error / Wrong Token"] --> F["Software Bug"] F --> G["Engineering Response: Telemetry, Logging & Step-by-Step Debugging"] G --> H["Result: Root Cause Analysis & Reliable Products"] end ```

---

`06:50` Telemetry, the Real Meaning of an “AI Pause,” and the 1987 Excel Bug

Contrasting large frontier AI models with autonomous driving systems like Waymo or Tesla Autopilot, Sinofsky highlights the vast operational gap between research artifacts and production engineering. Self-driving platforms are packed with diagnostic layers, redundant sensors, camera telemetry, and extensive instrumentation because human lives are immediately on the line. Frontier AI models, by comparison, remain trapped in a “research project phase,” devoid of the diagnostic maturity, step-by-step debuggers, and logging tools that production environments require.

Sinofsky recalls that Microsoft spent nearly two decades writing software without truly understanding why desktop applications crashed. Development teams simply noted crashes, compiled top-ten lists of frequent fail sites, and patched what they could. Everything changed when an engineer suggested writing a routine to transmit crash diagnostics back to Redmond over the fledgling internet:

> “And suddenly we had telemetry and suddenly, we had more bugs to fix than we knew it ever existed.”

That single diagnostic shift instantly upended Microsoft’s internal perception: teams went from believing products were virtually bug-free and ready to ship to realizing that, had they stopped feature development entirely, they could spend the rest of time solely fixing newly visible defects. Sinofsky argues that if people want an “AI pause,” that pause should not be spent idling or debating doomsday scenarios; AI labs should stop tacking on flashy new capabilities and instead build out observability infrastructure, audit trails, and execution trace tools. Examining recent vulnerability and incident write-ups from OpenAI, Sinofsky concludes that labs frequently cannot pinpoint why their systems behave unexpectedly. He recalls an infamous bug from the first 1987 release of Microsoft Excel for Windows: somewhere across the raw floppy disk sectors, the program inexplicably wrote the string `SINDOGS`—a bizarre glitch that was tracked and treated as an engineering defect, not a symptom of digital malevolence.

- **Microsoft crash reporting revelation:** Introducing automated crash reports turned an apparent lack of bugs into an infinite backlog of unmasked defects. - **The engineering prescription:** Pause feature development to implement step-by-step debugging, deep logging, and systematic incident reporting. - **1987 Excel for Windows disk defect:** The software mysteriously wrote the literal string `SINDOGS` onto disk media.

`10:00` The Ghost in the Machine: The "Send Dogs" Bug and AI's Lack of Maturity

Recalling the early days of personal computing at Microsoft, Steven Sinofsky tells an anecdote about a mysterious glitch where an Excel process corrupted a Windows settings file by writing the nonsensical string "send dogs" into it. Because nobody could find the phrase anywhere in the Excel source code, the team resorted to brutal, brute-force testing: one tester wrote a script that generated endless charts and printed them continuously onto an old-school dot matrix printer. After running the machine nonstop for roughly two days under specific conditions involving memory constraints, uptime, and printer device drivers, the bug finally reproduced and printed "send dogs." Sinofsky points out that instead of throwing their hands up and assuming the "Excel brain" had been taken over by demons or decided on its own to output gibberish, the engineering team dug in, traced the memory allocations and buffer overruns, and built comprehensive telemetry and logging builds directly into their software.

Turning to modern frontier AI labs, Sinofsky argues that reading recent post-incident disclosures from companies like OpenAI reveals an alarming lack of engineering maturity. Rather than building robust telemetry, logging infrastructure, and systematic debugging practices, labs frequently treat model behavior like an unfathomable mystery and deflect responsibility by suggesting regulatory bodies need to intervene. “Like literally this is their, it's like you have one job. Making software that works. That's it. That's the job.” For Sinofsky, ensuring reliable behavior under load is not a task for Congress to legislate; it is the fundamental obligation of software engineering.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Debugging Mindset versus Anthropic Mysticism accDescr: A comparison showing how Microsoft debugged the Send Dogs bug using telemetry versus how Sinofsky views AI labs deflecting through alignment talk.

subgraph ClassicEngineering["Traditional Engineering (Excel 'Send Dogs')"] A["Mysterious String Output"] --> B["Brute-Force Stress Testing"] B --> C["Identify Driver/Memory Buffer Overrun"] C --> D["Add Telemetry, Logging & Fix Root Bug"] end

subgraph FrontierAILabs["Current Frontier AI Approach"] E["Model Malfunction / Bug"] --> F["Treat as Inscrutable 'Brain' Problem"] F --> G["Appeal to Congress / 'Alignment' Myth"] G --> H["Deflect Basic Engineering Responsibility"] end ```

`12:15` Growing Up: From the ILOVEYOU Worm to Global Economic Blast Radiuses

Responding to Sinofsky's critique, Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini acknowledge that framing "alignment" as an impossible mythical challenge is damaging, though they suggest that the blast radius and surface area of AI bugs are inherently far more catastrophic than past software errors. Sinofsky pushes back on the idea that this scale is uniquely unprecedented. He remembers when mainframe engineers at IBM ridiculed early PC software as fragile toys running on 64 kilobytes of RAM for $5,000, while mainframes cost $5 million and ran airlines, nuclear power plants, and banks. Early PC developers long excused their own unreliability by claiming they were doing something fundamentally new and scrappy.

That excuse vanished once personal computing matured and real stakes appeared—when Excel was used to calculate flight dynamics, Microsoft Word drafted Supreme Court briefs, and PowerPoint was used to analyze the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster. The turning point arrived when the internet became widespread. Sinofsky recalls waking up in March to a reporter hyperventilating over the phone shouting, "I love you," referencing the ILOVEYOU virus and mass-mailing worms that combined Outlook, Word, and email to paralyze the economy. Overnight headlines reported roughly $12 billion in economic damage within a twelve-hour window, forcing Microsoft to halt Outlook feature development entirely until they engineered a fix. Sinofsky notes that expanding scale does not excuse failures; it simply raises the operational stakes.

- In the early days, Microsoft engineers excused their bugs against IBM mainframe criticism because PC software was cheap ($5,000 vs. $5 million) and ran with strict memory constraints (64K vs. 1MB). - Software maturity forced accountability once mission-critical tasks—from flight engineering to Supreme Court filings—depended on desktop software. - The sudden integration of Outlook, Word, and consumer internet email produced worms that inflicted an estimated $12 billion in economic damage in a single day, proving that massive blast radiuses are a byproduct of adoption that engineers must anticipate and manage.

`15:00` No Higher Authority: Engineering Accountability vs. The Obelisk Myth

Sinofsky rejects the claim that frontier labs are caught off guard by rapid adoption or intense market competition. When journalists used to call out Microsoft bugs, Sinofsky would attempt to explain that systems were complex and difficult, only to have a seasoned tech journalist cut through the excuses with: "Sinofsky, that's why you're paid the big bucks." He emphasizes that building software leaves creators with only two acceptable paths: either figure out how to make the system work reliably, or stop selling it.

He derides the tendency to treat AI models as if an alien monolith had dropped from the sky: “It wasn't handed down. It didn't show up like an obelisk of one by four by nine that we're supposed to figure out how does it do what it does and what's its source of power.” AI models are composed of code written by human beings that grew incrementally from zero users to millions. Sinofsky argues that attempting to solve safety by stacking infinite behavioral rules onto a system fundamentally backfires. Complex software collapses under too many overlapping constraints, creating endless unintended side effects. He compares this dynamic to Google spending over two decades and employing thousands of engineers to manually tune and police search ranking algorithms—a struggle now compounded because generative models synthesize answers from scratch rather than merely indexing nodes.

- Builders cannot abdicate responsibility by appealing to external entities, whether that means Congress, embedded third-party evaluators, or mystical natural laws. - Software systems degrade when overloaded with prescriptive behavioral rules; over-constraining models leads to cascades of unpredictable edge-case failures. - Google’s twenty-year effort to refine search algorithms illustrates the immense, continuous human labor required to tune automated outputs, a problem frontier models face in an even more complex generative form.

`17:45` The Y2K Precedent and the Need for Serious Incident Reporting

When asked whether AI safety resembles Y2K—an overhyped crisis that was resolved proactively by self-interested companies—Sinofsky asserts there was clear cause and effect. Disasters were averted on January 1, 2000, specifically because thousands of professionals took direct responsibility: renting generators, setting up campers, and relocating critical mainframes into secure bunkers. Although there were a few governmental guidelines, the actual compliance rules and operational standards were established primarily by an industry consortium of banks, insurers, and technology providers rather than top-down political mandates.

Sinofsky argues that frontier AI labs desperately need this same level of industry-driven rigor, specifically regarding vulnerability disclosures and post-incident reporting. Critiquing an incident report released by OpenAI the previous day, he notes that it read far more like marketing spin than an engineering breakdown. Professional incident post-mortems must look like standard CVE reports: detailing exact software versions, operational contexts, reproduction steps, impacted dependencies, and root derivations. Labs should look to agencies like the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), which refrain from publicly guessing during an investigation, keeping quiet until facts are proven, and then publishing exhaustive technical analyses.

> “The reporting that they did yesterday, sure, it's a great first step. But that is not anywhere near the kind of reporting that you need as a third party to understand what went on.” — Steven Sinofsky

`20:00` Software Defects, Academic Metaphors, and Misleading Language

Steven Sinofsky argues that AI failures need the exact same rigorous telemetry and post-incident tracking as traditional Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVEs), pinpointed down to partial seconds with full instrument readouts. When models fail, they are experiencing software defects rather than anything supernatural or mystical:

> “And that's what CVEs are. And they need to do way, way more because these are defects in the software. And it's just so critical to wrap our heads around the fact that that's what's going on. It's not divine intervention. It's not, you know, oh my God, we need to spark up more of the left brain of this thing to make it more rational. It's silly.”

Asked whether congressional initiatives like the "Stop Rogue AI Act" stem from genuine information gaps or intentional political grandstanding to stir up populist fear, Sinofsky cautions against assuming malicious intent. Instead, he points back to AI's origins at the 1956 Dartmouth summer conference, where researchers framed their work around human consciousness and brains. Academic research has an ingrained habit of adopting "cutesy" terminology to generate paper titles that capture attention, but carrying that language into policy debates has become actively harmful:

> “Because people presume a vast amount of stuff when you use metaphor or allegory or anthropomorphism, and it's just not true.”

Sinofsky illustrates how standard technical terms warp when interpreted by the public and lawmakers: - **Goal-seeking**: To an engineer, it merely means an algorithm moving across a curve to optimize for a local minimum or maximum; to a member of Congress, it sounds like a driven student cheating to secure an A in college. - **Cheating**: Interpreted morally rather than as a system taking an unintended path of least resistance through programmed constraints. - **Secretly coordinating**: Connotes hostile foreign spies infiltrating a country, rather than two concurrent programs communicating via a basic synchronization primitive like a semaphore.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Divergence of AI Terminology accDescr: Contrasting how technical mechanisms are framed mathematically versus how the public perceives anthropomorphic language.

subgraph TechnicalReality ["Engineering & Mathematical Reality"] Curve["Optimization across an objective curve"] Sync["Two processes using a semaphore"] Constraint["Path of least resistance through parameters"] end

subgraph AnthropomorphicFraming ["Public & Congressional Perception"] Goals["Goal-seeking college student"] Spies["Spies secretly coordinating an invasion"] Cheating["Moral dishonesty / cheating"] end

Curve -->|"Misinterpreted as"| Goals Sync -->|"Misinterpreted as"| Spies Constraint -->|"Misinterpreted as"| Cheating ```

`22:30` Historical Parallels: Computer Viruses, the HIV Panic, and Defensive Engineering

Sinofsky highlights how metaphors can derail technical understanding by looking back at the origins of the phrase "computer virus." Coined by a graduate student whose friend suggested the analogy, the term gained traction during the 1980s right as the HIV/AIDS epidemic dominated public consciousness. When Congress held hearings on the earliest computer viruses, the discussions took on a terrifying tone because the public associated the word with unavoidable mortality. The student's academic thesis even attempted to prove that computer viruses were an inevitable condition that humanity would never eliminate—mirroring the fatalism surrounding HIV at the time—though his university famously barred him from running the live tests on campus computers because the software was deemed too dangerous.

Despite those apocalyptic predictions, ordinary users today operate PCs and smartphones without constant panic because the industry stepped up and invested heavily in defensive cybersecurity:

> “Apple did a fantastic, they did such a good job that they made up TV commercials on a Mac and on a PC. And they told people that Macs are better because they get fewer viruses, not by some fluke of nature, but because they did a whole bunch of work on the Mac to prevent viruses from happening.”

The hosts recall the iconic "Get a Mac" ad campaign featuring John Hodgman as the PC sneezing and coughing into a handkerchief while Justin Long as the Mac remained unaffected. Sinofsky jokes about the trauma those ads caused him while leading Windows, noting that the architectural work Apple accomplished was remarkably difficult for Microsoft to match given the legacy constraints and business model of Windows.

`25:00` Defining Bugs: From IBM Hallways to Weather Models and Operational Security

As AI safety discourse matures, the term "alignment" will ultimately just describe high-level engineering competence. Sinofsky draws a comparison to Microsoft's own internal struggles decades ago to establish what counted as a software bug:

> “And we eventually decided a bug just means the software and the computer didn't do what you wanted it to do. You weren't happy with the result.”

Microsoft shifted from tracking only internally discovered defects to cataloging any user issue in a centralized database, exploding bug tallies from thousands into the hundreds of thousands. To manage the flood, they introduced classification metrics: - **Severity**: Ranging from Severity 1 (loss of user data) down to Severity 3 (flaky or superficial behavior). - **Priority**: Determining the immediate mandate to fix the issue.

While Microsoft engineers proudly walked the hallways talking about "Sev 1, Pri 1" as if they had pioneered modern software management, veteran IBM engineers pointed out they had been using that exact incident framework since 1965.

Sinofsky argues that dealing with non-deterministic or statistical software is not unprecedented. Numerical weather prediction functions identically: meteorologists rely on massive statistical models driven by variable inputs to project hurricane paths. When a storm veers off course, meteorologists convene to locate the bugs in the predictive model's code and parameters rather than appealing to Zeus to explain why the forecast was wrong.

Wrapping up, the hosts emphasize the need for veteran engineering voices in AI policy. Sinofsky delivers a final warning regarding recent breaches across the ecosystem:

> “We need software, but we also need like the AI people to listen to the operational security people because everything that happened with Hugging Face and OpenAI, it was an OPSEC failure. There was no intelligence, no consciousness, nothing but a pure OPSEC failure. And they need to treat it like that, and they need to talk about it like that. Because otherwise, we're going to get legislation no one is going to be happy with, because they don't understand what our industry is saying.”

## Notable quotes > `05:00` When Word ate your file and deleted all your content, we didn't think that demons had taken over Word and made it do things against the will of man. — Steven Sinofsky

## Mentioned Steven Sinofsky, Theo Jaffee, Sofia Puccini, a16z, Microsoft, Microsoft Windows, Windows Live, Internet Explorer, Microsoft Word, Microsoft Excel, Microsoft PowerPoint, Microsoft Outlook, Foundation for American Innovation (FAI), Josh Gottheimer, Stop Rogue AI Act, IBM, IBM PC XT, The Inner Circle, GTE TeleMail, NASA, WarGames, Ronald Reagan, Robert Tappan Morris, Cornell University, Morris worm, Waymo, Tesla Autopilot, OpenAI, Supreme Court, Space Shuttle Challenger, ILOVEYOU virus, Google, Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), Dartmouth summer conference, Apple, Mac, PC, John Hodgman, Justin Long, Get a Mac, Hugging Face

## Video description a16z Board Partner and former Microsoft Windows president Steven Sinofsky joins Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini on MTS to argue that the language we use to describe AI failures is making it harder to understand what’s actually going wrong. Steven takes aim at terms like “alignment,” “goal-seeking,” and “rogue agents,” arguing that they can anthropomorphize problems that software engineers have dealt with for decades. His framing is simpler: when software doesn’t do what it’s supposed to do, it has a bug. And as AI becomes more widely deployed, labs need the same kind of telemetry, debugging, incident reporting, and operational discipline that previous generations of software eventually developed. Drawing on everything from early computer hacking and Microsoft’s response to major software failures to Y2K and cybersecurity standards, Steven makes the case for treating AI reliability as an engineering problem. They also discuss what AI labs can learn from CVE reporting, why industry has a responsibility to make its systems safer, and how confusing terminology can lead to equally confused regulation.

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中文简报

西诺夫斯基敦促AI实验室将安全缺陷视为软件漏洞 前沿开发者若将常规代码错误包装为存亡级别的对齐威胁,而非采用基础的工程遥测与漏洞报告机制,恐将招致破坏性监管。 微软Windows部门前总裁史蒂文·西诺夫斯基(Steven Sinofsky)认为,当下的人工智能安全讨论正受到神秘化、拟人化语言的阻碍,这类言论将普通的软件缺陷渲染为生存或道德危机。西诺夫斯基将此与早期PC黑客攻击、“爱虫”病毒、千年虫应对准备以及早期Excel和Word的软件漏洞相提并论,坚称AI的非预期输出仅仅是源于统计权重缺陷的软件漏洞,而非机器产生了恶意。他呼吁前沿实验室停止将运营责任推卸给监管机构的习惯,转而通过标准化的遥测技术、类似CVE的事件报告制度以及严谨的运维安全措施来完善其工程实践。他最终警告称,长此以往的学术化比喻会误导立法者,并可能引发诸如《阻止流氓AI法案》(Stop Rogue AI Act)这类草率且盲目的反动性立法风险。 微软Windows部门前总裁史蒂文·西诺夫斯基认为,AI安全话语体系将模型行为拟人化,把常规的工程缺陷和统计漏洞神秘化成了“不对齐”等概念。 (0:00) 西诺夫斯基警告称,诸如“目标追寻”和“秘密协同”等拟人化表述会误导立法者,致使其仓促出台类似《阻止流氓AI法案》这样缺乏针对性的恐慌性立法。 (20:00) 前沿AI实验室与其为了存亡风险争论而暂停功能开发,不如将“AI暂停”作为一次运维冲刺,以构建生产级的遥测、日志记录以及类似CVE的事后事件报告机制。 (6:50) 西诺夫斯基指出,近期涉及OpenAI和Hugging Face等实验室的安全事件,其本质是基本的运维安全(OPSEC)失败,而非机器产生了涌现出的意识。 (25:00)

Reading summary

Former Microsoft executive Steven Sinofsky argues that the artificial intelligence safety debate has been derailed by anthropomorphic language that mischaracterizes technical defects as moral or existential "misalignment." He contends that frontier AI models are non-deterministic software systems that require traditional engineering discipline—specifically telemetry, root-cause debugging, and operational security—rather than panic-driven legislation. Anthropomorphic Metaphors Versus Software Defects (5:00) Sinofsky asserts that terms like "alignment," "goal-seeking," "cheating," and "secretly coordinating" originate from academic conventions dating back to the 1956 Dartmouth conference. While researchers use these terms colloquially, they mislead the public and lawmakers into perceiving conscious intent in statistical software. In policy discussions, an optimization curve is misinterpreted as student ambition, and basic thread synchronization primitives resemble hostile espionage. This rhetoric fuels legislative overreactions like New Jersey Representative Josh Gottheimer's "Stop Rogue AI Act." In Sinofsky's view, an undesirable model output simply reflects incorrect statistical token weighting rather than moral failure. Just as commercial software developers never attributed data loss in Microsoft Word or calculation errors in Excel to digital demons, engineers of autonomous vehicles treat a car mistaking a stop sign for a Christmas tree as a life-critical software bug, not a philosophical disagreement with holidays. He insists the industry must demystify AI by treating model failures strictly as software bugs. Engineering Maturity Through Telemetry and Observability (6:50) Frontier AI labs remain in a research phase, lacking the diagnostic maturity, step-by-step debuggers, and logging infrastructure standard in safety-critical production systems like autonomous driving. Sinofsky argues that if observers want an "AI pause," it should be spent halting new feature rollouts to implement rigorous telemetry and audit trails. He cites Microsoft's historical shift: implementing automated crash reporting revealed that applications previously thought ready to ship actually had an infinite backlog of previously invisible defects. Sinofsky contrasts modern lab incident reports with traditional engineering practices, recalling the 1987 Excel "send dogs" (SINDOGS) bug where disk sectors were corrupted. Instead of treating the software as an inscrutable black box, engineers ran continuous brute-force tests for days under tight hardware constraints until they isolated the buffer overrun. AI labs should adopt standard Common Vulnerabilities and Exposures (CVE) frameworks and Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) standards—publishing precise software versions, reproduction steps, and root causes instead of public relations disclosures. Historical Panics and Expanding Blast Radiuses (12:15) Sinofsky contextualizes current legislative panic by recalling the fall of 1983, when federal agents raided his college dormitory to arrest a member of "The Inner Circle" hacking group for breaching GTE TeleMail. Lawmakers subsequently cited the film WarGames during congressional hearings to claim teenagers would trigger nuclear strikes, taking years to enact the first federal computer crime statute. A similar panic emerged when the term "computer virus" was coined amid the 1980s HIV/AIDS epidemic, prompting fatalistic predictions that secure personal computing would be impossible. Sinofsky rejects the claim that AI's potential blast radius is uniquely unmanageable. In 2000, the ILOVEYOU worm leveraged Outlook and Word to inflict an estimated $12 billion in economic damage in 12 hours, forcing Microsoft to freeze Outlook feature development until defensive fixes were implemented. Likewise, catastrophic failures from Y2K were averted because an industry consortium of banks, insurers, and tech providers executed exhaustive operational overhauls, proving that private engineering accountability can manage large-scale technical risks. Statistical Models and Operational Security Failures (25:00) Non-deterministic systems are not unprecedented in software engineering. Meteorologists rely on numerical weather prediction models driven by massive statistical inputs to project hurricane paths; when a storm deviates from the forecast, scientists locate parameter bugs rather than treating the atmosphere as a sentient adversary. Software management has long accommodated complex edge cases using standardized Severity and Priority frameworks derived from IBM practices dating back to 1965. Sinofsky delivers a final warning regarding recent ecosystem incidents at organizations like Hugging Face and OpenAI, identifying them not as manifestations of autonomous intelligence, but as straightforward operational security (OPSEC) failures. He argues that AI practitioners must collaborate with cybersecurity professionals to address basic operational vulnerabilities directly, warning that dressing up administrative failures as novel intelligence problems will inevitably produce destructive, ill-informed regulation. Sinofsky concludes that software builders cannot abdicate responsibility by treating AI as an inexplicable obelisk or deferring basic reliability to congressional mandates. Developers must either invest in the difficult, continuous labor of building observable, reliable software or stop deploying it commercially.

精炼阅读摘要

前微软Windows事业部总裁Steven Sinofsky指出,当前围绕人工智能“对齐”(Alignment)与安全的话语充斥着危险的拟人化修辞,严重误导了立法者与公众;他主张行业必须剥离神秘主义隐喻,将AI异常明确视作普通的软件工程缺陷与统计错误来处理。 拟人化隐喻误导立法与公众认知 (0:00) Sinofsky回顾了早期计算史上的立法恐慌:1983年秋,联邦特工搜查其大学寝室并逮捕了早期黑客组织“The Inner Circle”的一名成员,该成员入侵了NASA等联邦机构使用的GTE TeleMail系统,但当时甚至没有任何适用的联邦计算机犯罪法规,国会只能在听证会上播放电影《WarGames》片段借题发挥,历经数年才确立相关法律,后来1988年康奈尔大学的莫里斯蠕虫(Morris worm)案成为该法首起起诉案例。如今,新泽西州众议员Josh Gottheimer提出《阻止流氓AI法案》(Stop Rogue AI Act)等举措,重蹈了这种立法过激的覆辙,其根源在于AI研究界沿袭了自1956年达特茅斯会议以来的拟人化修辞习惯。工程师口中单纯的数学概念被公众完全曲解:在目标函数曲线上寻找极值的“寻标(Goal-seeking)”被看作学生作弊拿A,进程间使用信号量(Semaphore)同步被联想为外国间谍“秘密协同”,而沿阻力最小路径突破限制则被定性为道德层面的“欺骗”。这种辞藻令政策制定者误以为软件具备自主意识与道德抉择能力,从而诱发非理性的恐慌监管。 祛魅对齐神话:回归软件缺陷本质 (5:00) 在传统工程实践中,软件发生故障从来不会被赋予神学或意识色彩。Sinofsky强调,当年微软Word意外删除文件或电子表格算错总和时,工程师绝不会认为有恶魔接管了程序,更不会祈求“对齐之神”降临。自动驾驶汽车若因计算机视觉错误将红灯识别为圣诞树而发生违规,工程师只会将其视为危及生命的严重软件缺陷,而非哲学层面上与节日文化“不对齐”。无论是顺序执行的`if-then`确定性分支代码,还是基于统计概率预测下一个Token的大型语言模型,未能输出预期结果在本质上就是软件缺陷(Bug)或统计加权错误。大模型并不是从天而降的一块类似一比四比九规格的神秘外星黑色石碑,其代码完全由人类编写,理应接受常规软件工程体系的严密检验。 以可观测性与遥测取代无意义的停摆 (6:50) Sinofsky回顾了1987年首个Windows版Excel软盘介质上莫名出现“SINDOGS”字符串的奇特缺陷,以及后来Excel进程因内存缓冲区溢出而在设置文件中写入“send dogs”乱码的历史。当时团队没有诉诸神秘主义,而是编写测试脚本驱动点阵打印机连续运行两天进行压力复现,最终精确定位了驱动程序与内存分配错误。微软曾有近二十年时间并不清楚桌面软件为何崩溃,直到团队引入了向雷德蒙德自动回传崩溃诊断信息的遥测(Telemetry)系统,才让海量隐藏缺陷浮出水面,彻底打破了“代码几乎无Bug”的错觉。他认为,当前前沿AI实验室仍停留在“科研项目”阶段,缺乏生产环境必需的单步调试器、审计追踪与执行路径日志,并在出现异常时推诿责任给监管机构;行业若需要所谓的“AI暂停(AI Pause)”,绝不应停滞于世界末日辩论,而应停止盲目堆砌华而不实的新功能,全力补齐可观测性基础设施。 借鉴历史危机建立专业化工程问责体系 (12:15) 针对AI可能引发全球性灾难的担忧,Sinofsky驳斥了“规模空前因而无法问责”的托词。早期PC软件常因运行在64KB内存的5000美元设备上而以粗糙自辩,但随着Excel支撑飞行力学计算、Word起草最高法院诉状以及Outlook与Word结合的ILOVEYOU蠕虫在12小时内造成约120亿美元经济损失,PC软件不得不建立极其严肃的工程问责制,微软也曾为此全面暂停功能开发以修复系统。类似地,千年虫(Y2K)危机之所以平稳度过,依靠的是银行、保险和科技企业组建行业联盟、部署发电机与加固大型机,而非依靠华盛顿自上而下的政令。Sinofsky指出,诸如OpenAI等机构发布的事件披露通报更像是公关营销而非技术报告;AI行业亟需采纳传统通用漏洞披露(CVE)的标准,详细披露版本、上下文、复现步骤与依赖关系,并借鉴气象预测对统计模型的参数调优经验,同时严肃对待像Hugging Face与OpenAI近期发生的安全事故——这些纯属操作安全(OPSEC)失败,不存在任何“智能”或“意识”作祟。 Sinofsky总结指出,对齐概念的实质最终就是高水平的工程胜任力;AI研究人员与管理者必须虚心吸纳传统软件工程中的分级缺陷管理、遥测工具及操作安全经验,否则充满误导的行业修辞将直接催生出令整个产业陷入困境的错误监管。

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 该音频由 Steven Sinofsky、Theo Jaffee 与 Sofia Puccini 于 2026 年 9 月 21 日在 RSS / 播客平台发布。节目简介指出,a16z 董事会合伙人兼微软 Windows 前总裁 Steven Sinofsky 做客 MTS 播客,探讨当前用于描述 AI 故障的拟人化语言(如“对齐”、“流氓智能体”)如何阻碍人们理解真实问题,并主张将 AI 可靠性回归为传统的软件工程缺陷与遥测调试问题。 ## TL;DR Steven Sinofsky 回顾了 20 世纪 80 年代黑客恐慌、早年 Excel 诡异故障、互联网蠕虫病毒以及 Y2K 千年虫等技术演进史,力证当下围绕 AI 的末日论述不过是历史上多次技术恐慌的重演。他尖锐指出,AI 圈滥用“对齐失败”、“目标导向”等拟人化玄学黑话,不仅掩盖了实验室底层遥测与调试工具链严重缺失的工程现状,还直接导致国会政客出台荒谬的监管法案。真正的解决之道并非向立法者或虚妄的“神明”求助,而是正视大模型本质仍是软件代码的事实,建立类似微软缺陷跟踪、CVE 漏洞通报及 FAA 空难调查式的严密工程纪律与操作安全(OPSEC)规范。 ## Atmosphere & style 对谈整体充满老派资深工程师的务实风骨与批判性幽默,既有历史亲历者的举重若轻,又有对行业乱象的直言不讳。Sinofsky 凭借在微软数十年的工程管理沉淀,以大量极具画面感的技术轶事(如连续两天让打印机狂打 Excel 图表排错、苹果打喷嚏广告的刺痛感)破除神秘主义叙事,态度犀利而笃定。主持团队与嘉宾形成紧密共鸣,在严肃探讨公共政策误区与软件安全责任的同时,洋溢着一种穿透科技神话、呼唤理性工程常识的通透与踏实感。 ## Bulletin - `05:00` 前微软 Windows 事业部总裁 Steven Sinofsky 指出,AI 领域广泛使用的“对齐失败”、“目标导向”等拟人化词汇掩盖了事实,其本质仅仅是普通软件 Bug 或统计模型缺陷。 - `07:34` 当前前沿 AI 实验室严重缺乏传统关键业务系统所标配的遥测、崩溃日志和单步调试等工程工具链,行业应暂停堆砌新功能并补齐底层工程纪律。 - `18:00` 类似 Y2K 千年虫危机的化解,AI 可靠性必须依靠行业自发的工程标准与严谨的事故披露机制(如通用漏洞披露 CVE 或 FAA 事故报告),而非依赖混乱的行政立法。 - `20:00` 学术界发明的拟人化隐喻(如“暗中串通”实为信号量同步)严重误导了立法者与公众,将可能导致针对不存在的“流氓智能体”出台混乱甚至有害的监管法规。 ## Key takeaways - `00:00` 政界近期频繁出台监管法案(如《阻止流氓 AI 法案》),反映出因缺乏技术理解而重蹈 20 世纪 80 年代黑客恐慌的历史覆辙。 - `05:00` 将模型输出错误包装为“对齐失败”(Misalignment)是拟人化陷阱,本质上与 Excel 计算错误或 Word 崩溃一样,属于普通的软件 Defect。 - `05:00` 无论确定性逻辑还是概率统计模型,只要未达预期就是 Bug,自动驾驶将停车标志误认作圣诞树属于危险系统缺陷而非价值观念未对齐。 - `07:34` AI 实验室仍处于初级科研项目阶段,亟需引入毫秒级时间轴遥测、运行时监控与单步调试等基础设施,而非盲目增加新功能。 - `10:00` 微软早年解决 Excel“sin dogs”幽灵写词 Bug 的经验表明,面对复杂环境引发的极端问题,必须依靠高压测试与底层排查,而非诉诸玄学解释。 - `12:35` 早期微机软件曾以“廉价、轻量”为由逃避质量责任,但随着其进入关键行业(如 1998 年蠕虫浩劫),团队必须承担起修复系统漏洞的绝对责任。 - `15:00` 软件由人类工程师编写,不存在无法解决的超自然神秘法力,工程团队的核心职责就是让软件正常跑通,不可推诿给外部立法。 - `15:00` 系统规则堆砌会呈指数级增加边缘场景与副作用,生成式 AI 的规则调优本质是一场与传统搜索排序类似的长期工程苦工。 - `18:00` Y2K 千年虫危机的成功解决证明,跨行业联合行动与工程自驱规范远比行政立法更能有效消除系统性技术风险。 - `18:00` AI 实验室现行的推测性公关式通报不合规范,应效仿 FAA 事故调查机制及标准的 CVE 漏洞披露体系,提供严密且透明的技术归因。 - `20:00` 学术界借用“目标导向”、“作弊”、“暗中串通”等拟人化词汇吸引眼球,实际上其底层对应的仅是曲线求极值、越界测试及信号量同步。 - `22:45` “计算机病毒”一词诞生时曾因投射 HIV 危机而引发社会极度恐慌,但最终该威胁是通过构建“防御性网络安全”体系得以化解。 - `25:00` 微软通过将 Bug 广义定义为“软件未执行用户预期操作”,并建立严重度与优先级分类分级体系,推动了现代缺陷治理流程的建立。 - `25:00` 天气预报同为复杂的概率统计系统,预测偏差历来被作为算法与输入 Bug 进行工程排查,而非归结为不可解的神秘现象。 - `25:00` 近期 AI 平台出现的安全事件本质均为运营安全(OPSEC)疏漏,行业必须回归严谨的工程与安全术语,以避免导致误导性的监管。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### `00:00` 早期黑客历史与国会的立法恐慌 对话在华盛顿特区展开。主持人 Theo Jaffee 与 Sofia Puccini 提到,近期政界出台了大量针对人工智能行业的监管法案,其中包括新泽西州众议员乔希·戈特海默(Josh Gottheimer)提出的《阻止流氓 AI 法案》(Stop Rogue AI Act)。曾任微软 Windows 事业部总裁、现为 a16z 董事会合伙人的史蒂文·西诺夫斯基(Steven Sinofsky)对此指出,当前行业正处于“四处乱抛法案”的极度狂热阶段。为了说明这种恐慌情绪并非新鲜事,西诺夫斯基回顾了自己在 1983 年刚上大学时的亲身经历。 当年在拥有 100 名学生的大学宿舍里,只有西诺夫斯基和另一位计算机系同学拥有电脑,没人明白他们用电脑能做什么。然而某天秋天,几名身穿西装的联邦特工(G-Men)突击搜查了宿舍,直接没收了那位同学的电脑并将他逮捕。这名同学实际上是全美最早的黑客组织之一“内圈”(The Inner Circle / The Inner Ring)的成员。他们当时入侵了大型通信公司 GTE 旗下的 TeleMail——这是最早需要通过调制解调器拨号连接的在线邮件服务系统,其客户包括美国政府和 NASA。随后,全美展开了一场针对黑客的协同搜捕行动,执法人员抬走了一台重达 50 磅、配有巨型显示器的 IBM PC XT。 荒谬的是,在突击逮捕之后大家才发现,该学生当时并没有触犯任何现行法律,因为彼时根本没有针对网络入侵的联邦罪名。国会随后举行了密集的听证会,现场甚至通过播放好莱坞新电影《战争游戏》(WarGames)的片段来向议员们渲染恐惧,宣称高中生即将接管政府并引爆核武器。几年后,罗纳德·里根(Ronald Reagan)总统终于签署了首部针对计算机黑客犯罪的联邦法案。西诺夫斯基回忆,又过了四五年,当他回康奈尔大学参加校友返校日(Homecoming)去拜访当年的指导老师时,在纽约州伊萨卡市的计算机系大楼里目睹了一场罕见的新闻发布会——官方正式宣布发现了发源于康奈尔大学的“莫里斯蠕虫”(Morris worm),这也促成了上述反黑客法案下的首例刑事起诉。 - 1983 年秋天,联邦特工搜查了大学宿舍,查封重达 50 磅的 IBM PC XT 电脑并拘押涉案黑客。 - 被入侵的系统是 GTE TeleMail,其核心客户涵盖美国政府及 NASA。 - 国会在缺乏对应法律条文的情况下,借用电影《战争游戏》(WarGames)在听证会上制造“核武失控”恐慌。 - 里根总统签署的反黑客法案,在几年后针对康奈尔大学诞生的莫里斯蠕虫事件进行了首次起诉。 --- ### `05:00` 拟人化陷阱:AI 的“对齐失败”本质上就是软件 Bug 西诺夫斯基表示,见证了数十年的科技恐慌后,他对国会议员的歇斯底里早已习以为常。但当前由政客宣扬“制止流氓 AI 智能体”所引发的技术讨论却让他感到不可理喻。西诺夫斯基愤怒地指出,问题的根源在于 AI 圈内的人正在用玄学般的黑话让大众彻底无法理解真实情况。行业喜欢使用“AI 未能实现对齐”(failed to be aligned)这样的词汇,但在传统软件工程中,这仅仅意味着代码出现了 Bug,即软件没有执行预期的操作。 西诺夫斯基犀利地批判了这种拟人化倾向:一旦使用“未对齐”(misaligned)这个词,人们就会在脑海中赋予 AI 思考能力,假定它在面临某种道德抉择,或者在规则与指导方针之间进行了博弈。他打了个生动的比方:过去电子表格软件(如 Excel)如果在计算时出错,工程师们绝不会聚在一起围成一圈,向“对齐之神”祈祷表格把数学算对;当 Word 崩溃吞掉文件并抹去所有内容时,也没有人会认为“恶魔附身了 Word 并逼它违背人类的意志”。他强调,无论是确定性的规则判断(if-then),还是基于统计学和概率的模型模拟,本质上都属于软件的范畴。如果一个大模型输出了错误的下一个词,那只是统计概率或者训练数据出了错,这本身就是一个普通的软件 Bug。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 对待软件异常的思维模型对比 accDescr: 对比传统工程思维与当前 AI 拟人化思维在面对输出错误时的不同反应与定性方式 subgraph BugView["传统软件工程视角"] A["预期结果 vs 实际输出不符"] --> B["程序逻辑缺陷 / 统计偏差"] B --> C["定性为软件 Bug (Defect)"] C --> D["工程排错:打补丁、修复统计错误"] end subgraph MysticView["当前 AI 圈拟人化视角"] E["大模型生成异常内容"] --> F["假定模型拥有意图与道德抉择"] F --> G["包装为‘对齐失败’(Misalignment)"] G --> H["引发流氓智能体恐慌与玄学式讨论"] end ``` 西诺夫斯基用自动驾驶系统举例:如果全自动驾驶(FSD)汽车因为把停车标志(Stop sign)误认成一棵圣诞树而径直闯了过去,工程师绝不会坐下来讨论“这辆车未能与 12 月节日季和道路交通标志的理念保持对齐”,大家会毫不犹豫地指出这是一个致命的、危险的系统 Bug。特斯拉(Tesla)和 Waymo 为此在车上搭载了大量传感器、多余的备用摄像头、详尽的遥测系统(telemetry)和诊断模块,因为在关乎人命的复杂统计决策软件中,完备的工程观测工具是绝对必需的。 > “当 Word 吞了你的文件并删光所有内容时,我们并没有认为恶魔接管了 Word 并让它违背人类的意志行事。” —— 史蒂文·西诺夫斯基 --- ### `07:34` 缺乏遥测与调试工具的 AI 实验室:重蹈早期软件研发覆辙 在西诺夫斯基看来,当前各大实验室的 AI 模型依然停留在初级的“科研项目阶段”(research project phase)。它们严重缺乏在关键业务软件中本应标配的工程工具、深度遥测系统与详尽监控机制。他分享了微积分时代的微软曾经历的长达 20 年的软件开发困境:在早期,Windows 团队在软件崩溃时其实根本不知道具体诱因,只能在收到用户抱怨后列出崩溃频率最高的前十个场景逐一盲修。直到后来有人提出利用刚刚兴起的互联网构建崩溃回传机制,开发了早期的崩溃报告与遥测程序,微软才在一夜之间掌握了真实运行状态。那次转变让工程团队发现的 Bug 数量呈爆发式增长,以至于“哪怕全员停下新功能开发,剩下的 Bug 也够修上一辈子”。 西诺夫斯基借此回应了业内呼吁的“AI 暂停”(AI pause)论调。他主张实验室确实应该放慢脚步,但暂停的目的不应是逃避末日幻想,而是应该立即停下盲目堆砌新特性的节奏,踏踏实实地补齐底层遥测、监控日志、单步调试器(step-by-step debugging)等工程基础设施。他提到前一天刚刚读完 OpenAI 最新发布的 Bug 报告,从中能明显看出研发人员自己甚至都不知道系统为何会出现特定故障。为了说明没有严密调试流程会带来怎样的离奇故障,西诺夫斯基列举了 1987 年 Windows 平台首版 Excel 的一个真实案例:当时系统的磁盘底层出现了一个神秘错误,会在毫无逻辑的情况下莫名其妙地向磁盘写入一个神秘单词短语“Send dogs”(拼写作 S-I-N-D-O-G-S)。 > “因此,当有人谈论 AI 暂停时,他们当然应该慢下来。他们应该停止添加新功能,转而去添加遥测、工具、日志、单步调试,以及在你的软件要执行任何重要任务且你在乎它是否正确时本就该加入的一切东西。” —— 史蒂文·西诺夫斯基 - 传统商业软件经历了长达 20 年的“盲目修 Bug”阶段,直到网络遥测技术普及后才真正建立起工程可见性。 - 西诺夫斯基直言 OpenAI 最近公开的 Bug 报告暴露了模型研发底层调试能力的严重缺失。 - 1987 年 Windows 版 Excel 曾出现过一个低级底层 Bug:无故在磁盘写入“Send dogs”(S-I-N-D-O-G-S),印证了软件若缺乏可观测性,其表现形式往往不可预测且匪夷所思。 ### `10:00` “Excel 恶魔附身”轶事与模型遥测能力的缺失 Steven Sinofsky 回忆了早年在微软排查软件 Bug 的经典案例。当时发生了一件怪事:在某个特定的 Windows 配置文件中,突然莫名其妙地写入了“sin dogs”这个毫无意义的词,“就像 Excel 被恶魔附身了一样(It was like Excel got taken over by demons)”。全团队把 Excel 的源代码翻了个底朝天,试图找出哪里写了“sin dogs”,结果一无所获。为了复现问题,一名测试人员编写了一个脚本,让 Excel 在老式点阵打印机上无休止地绘制一张又一张图表,残酷地高负荷连续运行了两天。最终,这个词果然再次出现在了配置文件的同一位置。调查发现,这完全是上下文环境引发的极端 Bug,与计算机内存大小、运行持续时间、打印机及设备驱动程序的协同调用直接相关。 Sinofsky 指出,他们当年完全可以两手一摊宣称“Excel 的大脑自己决定打印这个词”,但工程师没有将问题拟人化或神秘化,而是老老实实进行了底层调试。微软要求在每个产品中加入内存分配、缓冲区溢出检测等代码,并专门构建了包含详尽日志记录的内部测试版 Excel 进行 Beta 遥测。对比当下,Sinofsky 直言 OpenAI 等大模型实验室目前的遥测与日志基础设施远远不够,阅读他们公开发布的事故报告,能明显感觉到他们作为支撑重大业务的平台“尚未成年”。他强调,模型团队不能坐等国会立法来教他们修软件,做软件的核心职责就是让它正常运转。 - 微软测试人员通过连续两天让 Excel 自动绘图并由点阵打印机输出,复现了内存与驱动引发的幽灵写词 Bug。 - 软件工程的成熟标志在于构建深度遥测、崩溃日志与缓冲区监控等底层工具链,而非诉诸玄学解释。 - Steven Sinofsky 直言:“像字面意思一样,你只有一项工作:做出能跑通的软件。这就是全部。这就是这份工作(Like literally this is their, it's like you have one job. Making software that works. That's it. That's the job)。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Excel幽灵Bug排查与系统化工程改进流程 accDescr: 展示从最初遇到配置文件异常写入,到压力测试复现、底层调试,再到构建长期遥测机制的工程化解决路径。 subgraph Problem["异常现象与排查失败"] A["配置文件出现幽灵字符<br/>('sin dogs')"] --> B["全面检索 Excel 源代码"] B --> C["代码库无任何匹配项<br/>陷入僵局"] end subgraph StressTest["极限复现与成因定位"] C --> D["测试脚本持续高压运行<br/>(连续绘图并打印2天)"] D --> E["成功重现Bug"] E --> F["定位成因:内存溢出、运行时长<br/>及驱动协同异常"] end subgraph Engineering["工程机制常态化"] F --> G["拒绝神秘化推脱<br/>(不称其为系统自主意图)"] G --> H["全产品线加入内存与边界监控"] H --> I["推出专有遥测与高密度日志版本"] end ``` --- ### `12:35` 从“我们的 Bug 没问题”到千万美元级互联网蠕虫浩劫 主持人提到,将“对齐(alignment)”视作无法解决的神话问题是有害的,但 AI 模型的潜在攻击面与灾难面确实看起来前所未有地巨大。对此,Sinofsky 用个人成长史反驳了“这一次完全不同”的技术例外论。在个人电脑和 Windows 崛起之初,IBM 的大型机工程师极度鄙视微机软件,认为大型机支撑着银行、电厂和航空公司,而 Windows 简陋如垃圾。当年微软年轻工程师的说辞与今天如出一辙:“我们很便宜,我们只占 64K 内存而不是 1MB,我们更新更酷,所以我们的 Bug 是可以被原谅的。” 然而,随着真实世界开始用 Excel 计算飞机飞行数据、用 Word 起草最高法院诉状、用 PowerPoint 汇报挑战者号航天飞机事故分析,桌面软件的社会责任彻底质变。分水岭事件发生在 1998 年 3 月,首个大规模互联网蠕虫病毒(如早期针对 Outlook 的恶意代码传播)爆发。Sinofsky 回忆,当时他清晨接到记者的紧急电话,对方在电话另一头极度亢奋地重复喊着病毒邮件的主题。次日各大媒体头条赫然写着:全美经济在一天之内承受了 120 亿美元的损失。微软被迫立即叫停整个 Outlook 团队的正常功能开发,全员扑上去解决安全漏洞。 - 早期桌面软件团队曾以“廉价、轻量、创新”为由为系统缺陷辩护,直到关键行业全面依赖其作为基础设施。 - 1998 年互联网邮件与 Office 的联动态势,使得恶意代码在短短 12 小时内席卷全球,造成约 120 亿美元损失。 - 用户体量与关键依赖的增加必然放大缺陷的破坏力,但这属于开发者的固有责任,绝非推卸质量把控的借口。 --- ### `15:00` 拒绝技术神秘化:对齐是工程规则约束,而非向立法者求救 面对软件造成的巨大冲击,部分 AI 开发者以“业务爆发太快、仍在激战竞争”为由开脱。Sinofsky 引用一位著名科技记者当年嘲弄他的话:“西诺夫斯基,这就是给你开高薪的原因(Sinofsky, that's why you're paid the big bucks)。”软件是人类一行行敲出来的,既不是凭空降临的四维黑石纪念碑,也没有任何超自然法力。既然是人创造的代码,人类工程师就完全有能力搞定它的行为边界,唯一的选择就是“把它修好,或者别卖它”。 对于当下被过度包装的“对齐(alignment)”,Sinofsky 撕下了其抽象面具:对齐的本质就是定义极大量的规则(何为安全、何为不公、什么能做什么不能做)。但在传统软件工程中,系统规则越堆越繁琐,副作用和边缘场景就会呈指数级增加。这就像 Google 在过去二十年投入数千名全职员工,永无休止地维护和调优搜索引擎结果的排序与安全规则一样。生成式 AI 不仅要检索还要合成内容,这场工程泥潭的复杂程度只会更高。这一切没有任何外部法律能代劳,全部是实验室必须硬啃的工程苦工。 - 软件系统既不存在不可解的自然法则限制,也不能寄希望于国会或第三方监管者来替工程师接盘。 - 过度增加对齐限制会导致软件系统出现无限的非预期副作用,每制定一条规则就会引出新的例外案例。 - Steven Sinofsky 批判神秘主义论调:“认为需要召唤更高力量才能解决这个问题的想法,完全是纯粹的疯狂(It is pure insanity to just sit and argue that higher powers need to be summoned in order to fix this)。” --- ### `18:00` Y2K 千年虫的启示:行业内生责任与超越公关宣传的事件报告 针对主持人关于“AI 安全问题是否类似 Y2K(千年虫),由企业自驱化解而未演变成全球灾难”的提问,Sinofsky 给予了肯定,但强调其中的因果关系在于专业人士的主动履职。当年千年虫之所以平安度过,不是因为问题不存在,而是因为银行、保险公司等跨行业联盟以及科技工程师们极度重视,主动租用发电机、调集露营车待命、将服务器搬入防空洞级机房进行系统排查。这一危机是在行业自发制定标准和协议中解决的,而非依赖政府出台行政法规。 以此为镜鉴,Sinofsky 猛烈批评了各大前沿 AI 实验室现行的事故通报模式。以 OpenAI 前一日发布的说明为例,其披露的信息极其薄弱,通篇充斥着“我们仍在调查,但目前推测如何如何”等推脱辞令,本质上更像是一场危机公关营销。在成熟的软件与工业体系中,标准的通用漏洞披露(CVE)必须巨细靡遗地公布受影响软件版本、触发上下文、复现步骤、关联组件以及派生漏洞。Sinofsky 提出,AI 行业应当效仿美国联邦航空管理局(FAA):在空难或严重事故发生当天,FAA 从来不会在查明原因前靠猜测对外放话,他们会在事故调查期间保持克制,一旦得出确定结论,就会出具一份极其专业、详尽、毫无保留的深度技术调查报告。 - 千年虫危机的化解源于专业人员的主动担责和行业联合标准的建立,而非行政立法主导。 - 当前 AI 实验室的事故公告缺乏关键工程参数(版本、调用链路、复现边界),难以支持第三方进行技术归因。 - 工业级的事故披露应参照 FAA 机制,杜绝推测性的公关修辞,提供透明且严谨的技术归因报告。 ### `20:00` 拟人化语言对 AI 讨论的破坏与学术界的历史根源 Steven Sinofsky 强调,对于系统故障的排查必须细化到“带有仪器所有遥测数据的毫秒级时间轴”,而通用漏洞披露(CVE)机制正是为此而生的。软件实验室需要做更多这类工作,因为这些问题本质上都是软件缺陷(defects)。他直言不讳地指出,这绝不是什么神力介入,也不是“需要激活这个东西的更多左脑来让它变得更理性”,用这种方式思考问题极其荒谬。 Sofia Puccini 由此提出疑问:像《阻止失控 AI 法案》(Stop Rogue AI Act)这样的立法动作,究竟是因为国会议员对实验室内部的技术现状缺乏充分了解才套用了拟人化语言,还是出于某种民粹主义动机,为了在选民中制造轰动以博取支持?Steven 回应称,在当前阶段最重要的是不要先入为主地揣测他人的恶意动机,因为那无助于把大家团结起来解决问题。他回顾了学术界的历史:早在达特茅斯夏季会议上,学术界就习惯讨论人脑和意识,而在论文中用标新立异的酷炫词汇吸引眼球也是学术传统。然而,将这些根植于学术界的隐喻延展到大众讨论中已经造成了巨大的分裂。 Steven 尖锐地批评了当前主流叙事中的术语混淆:“当一个普通人,比如国会议员,听到‘目标导向’(goal-seeking)时,他们脑子里浮现的是一个大学生努力想要拿 A;当他们听到‘作弊’(cheating)时,他们以为系统做了不被允许的事;而当他们听到‘暗中串通’(secretly coordinating)时,他们想到的是敌国间谍入侵,而不是两个软件程序通过信号量(semaphore)进行同步——这不过是暗中串通的另一种技术表述罢了。” ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 拟人化术语造成的认知偏差 accDescr: 展示技术术语与大众认知之间的错位 subgraph TechTerms["技术真实含义"] T1["数学曲线寻优(Min/Max)"] T2["程序越过测试边界"] T3["信号量(Semaphore)跨进程通信"] end subgraph Misunderstanding["大众与政界误读"] M1["目标导向:像人类一样为了拿高分不择手段"] M2["作弊:道德意义上的违规行为"] M3["暗中串通:敌国间谍密谋渗透"] end T1 -.->|"学术隐喻包装成'Goal-seeking'"| M1 T2 -.->|"被拟人化为'Cheating'"| M2 T3 -.->|"被描绘为'Secretly Coordinating'"| M3 ``` - 学术界为了吸引眼球而发明俏皮词汇的历史悠久,但将这些隐喻引入公共治理正在彻底破坏技术对话。 - 所谓“目标导向”(goal-seeking),在老派工程术语中仅仅指数学曲线逼近局部极值,毫无主观意识可言。 ### `22:45` 历史的回响:从“计算机病毒”与 HIV 隐喻到防御性网络安全 谈到比喻对公众认知造成的恐慌,Steven 提到了“计算机病毒”(computer virus)这个词的历史巧合。该词的诞生恰逢现实中艾滋病(AIDS/HIV)大流行的时期,致使“病毒”一词在社会上弥漫着强烈的死亡阴影。如果回顾 20 世纪 80 年代关于第一代计算机病毒的国会听证会,就会发现现场气氛极其可怕,因为议员们脑子里联想到的全是致命绝症,而这与代码层面的真实情况完全脱节。 当年那位撰写计算机病毒博士论文的学者甚至在论文中证明:病毒是无法被彻底消除的,它们将永远存在——这几乎完全投射了当时人们对 HIV 的绝望情绪。极具讽刺意味的是,该学者所在的大学甚至禁止他使用校内计算机运行实际测试,理由是他正在研究某种“极度危险的软件”。 Theo Jaffee 补充道,尽管病毒永远不会彻底绝迹,但人们如今几乎可以正常使用电脑而不用整天担心被黑客入侵。Steven 指出,这正是因为整个行业发展出了“防御性网络安全”(defensive cybersecurity)。业界意识到这种威胁不可接受并付诸工程行动:例如苹果公司开展了极其出色的安全防护工程,并拍摄了著名的“Get a Mac”(我是 Mac,我是 PC)系列电视广告,以此宣传 Mac 不易中毒的优势。作为前 Windows 业务总裁,Steven 笑着坦言:“回想起那些广告,在肉体上依然让我感到隐隐作痛。”但他承认,苹果能做到这一点是因为其底层架构与工程投入,而当时的 Windows 受限于既有的商业模式,很难推行同等强度的改动。 - “计算机病毒”这一术语由一位研究生在偶然间采纳,却因恰逢 HIV 危机而被赋予了超乎寻常的恐慌色彩。 - 苹果针对 Windows 易受病毒攻击制作了经典的咳嗽打喷嚏对比广告,成功将工程防御能力转化为产品信任壁垒。 ### `25:00` 重新定义“Bug”:工程演进与气象模型的启示 Theo 提出,未来的所谓“对齐”(Alignment)最终可能只意味着一个极其高效、具备深度能力的工程团队能够解决高层级的系统缺陷。Steven 极力赞同这一观点,并回忆起微软早期在定义“什么是 Bug”时经历的认知阵痛。在很长一段时间里,工程师们无法达成共识:有人认为只有“丢失用户数据”才算 Bug,有人则认为“系统崩溃但数据完好”也算。最终,他们达成了一致裁定:“软件和计算机没有执行你预期的操作、你对其结果不满意,这就是一个 Bug。” 在那之后,微软开放让全球客户报告任何 Bug 并全部录入数据库,追踪的缺陷瞬间从数千级暴增到数十万级。为了有效应对,他们建立了严密的严重性(Severity)与优先级(Priority)分类体系:Sev 1 代表丢失数据,Sev 3 只是系统偶发不稳定;Priority 1 则代表必须立即修复。Steven 幽默地回忆道,当微软工程师们每天在走廊里把“Sev 1, P 1”挂在嘴边、为自己的系统化发明洋洋自得时,IBM 的技术前辈们走过来看了一眼,淡淡地说:“我们从 1965 年起就在这么干了,你们这帮人之前都在干嘛?” ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 微软对软件缺陷的系统化分级演进 accDescr: 展示从混沌定义到引入严重度与优先级的演进过程 subgraph Evolution["对 Bug 认知的演进"] E1["狭隘争议:仅数据丢失算 Bug?"] --> E2["广义共识:未达到预期即为 Bug"] end subgraph Classification["双维度分类管理"] C1["严重度 (Severity)<br/>Sev 1: 丢失数据<br/>Sev 3: 偶发抖动"] C2["优先级 (Priority)<br/>P 1: 必须立即修复<br/>常规流转"] end E2 --> Classification ``` Steven 进一步指出,当前 AI 领域正处于重新摸索“如何定义随机统计系统中的 Bug”的阶段,但这在软件工程史上早有先例。天气预报正是典型的统计模型:它依赖大量输入并生成概率性输出,而且经常出现偏差。当气象台预测了飓风路径而飓风却转向别处时,气象学家们会聚在一起深入审查模型输入与算法缺陷,从而修复预测模型中的 Bug。“他们绝不会向宙斯祈求:‘宙斯啊,请告诉我们为什么天气预报会出错。’” 在对谈结语中,Theo 和 Sofia 认同来自老牌软件工程界的视角至关重要。Steven 强调,AI 实验室当下必须倾听运营安全(OPSEC)专家的意见,例如 Hugging Face 或 OpenAI 暴露出的安全事件,本质上全都是“纯粹的操作安全事故”(OPSEC failure),不存在任何所谓的主动智能或自主意识。行业必须坚持使用严谨的工程与安全术语,否则整个行业将迎来谁也不愿看到的监管法案,因为立法者根本无法理解技术人员究竟在说什么。 - 微软早期将 Bug 宽泛定义为“系统没有执行用户想要的操作”,从而推动了缺陷数据库的指数级爆发与规范化治理。 - 天气预报属于经典的随机统计系统;预测失准被视为工程模型缺陷(Bug)而非神迹偏差。 - 当前 AI 领域发生的泄露与失控现象本质是纯粹的 OPSEC(操作安全)疏漏,必须脱离拟人化语境,回归工程纪律。 ## Notable quotes > `25:00` 软件和计算机没有执行你预期的操作、你对其结果不满意,这就是一个 Bug。 — Steven Sinofsky > `05:00` 当 Word 吞了你的文件并删光所有内容时,我们并没有认为恶魔接管了 Word 并让它违背人类的意志行事。 — 史蒂文·西诺夫斯基 > `07:34` 当有人谈论 AI 暂停时,他们当然应该慢下来。他们应该停止添加新功能,转而去添加遥测、工具、日志、单步调试,以及在你的软件要执行任何重要任务且你在乎它是否正确时本就该加入的一切东西。 — 史蒂文·西诺夫斯基 ## Mentioned Steven Sinofsky, Theo Jaffee, Sofia Puccini, Josh Gottheimer, The Inner Circle, GTE TeleMail, NASA, IBM PC XT, WarGames, Ronald Reagan, Morris worm, Cornell University, Excel, Word, Tesla, Waymo, OpenAI, Outlook, Google, FAA, Apple, Get a Mac, IBM, Hugging Face ## Video description a16z Board Partner and former Microsoft Windows president Steven Sinofsky joins Theo Jaffee and Sofia Puccini on MTS to argue that the language we use to describe AI failures is making it harder to understand what’s actually going wrong. Steven takes aim at terms like “alignment,” “goal-seeking,” and “rogue agents,” arguing that they can anthropomorphize problems that software engineers have dealt with for decades. His framing is simpler: when software doesn’t do what it’s supposed to do, it has a bug. And as AI becomes more widely deployed, labs need the same kind of telemetry, debugging, incident reporting, and operational discipline that previous generations of software eventually developed. Drawing on everything from early computer hacking and Microsoft’s response to major software failures to Y2K and cybersecurity standards, Steven makes the case for treating AI reliability as an engineering problem. They also discuss what AI labs can learn from CVE reporting, why industry has a responsibility to make its systems safer, and how confusing terminology can lead to equally confused regulation. [Source](https://mgln.ai/e/1344/afp-848985-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/3f86df7b-51c6-4101-88a2-550dba782de8/episodes/4a13c8b0-2462-4960-9b99-fcf8bb40551c/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=3f86df7b-51c6-4101-88a2-550dba782de8&awEpisodeId=4a13c8b0-2462-4960-9b99-fcf8bb40551c&feed=JGE3yC0V)

Source quotes

[25:00] Steven Sinofsky: 软件和计算机没有执行你预期的操作、你对其结果不满意,这就是一个 Bug。 [5:00] 史蒂文·西诺夫斯基: 当 Word 吞了你的文件并删光所有内容时,我们并没有认为恶魔接管了 Word 并让它违背人类的意志行事。 [7:34] 史蒂文·西诺夫斯基: 当有人谈论 AI 暂停时,他们当然应该慢下来。他们应该停止添加新功能,转而去添加遥测、工具、日志、单步调试,以及在你的软件要执行任何重要任务且你在乎它是否正确时本就该加入的一切东西。

Source quotes

[5:00] Steven Sinofsky: When Word ate your file and deleted all your content, we didn't think that demons had taken over Word and made it do things against the will of man.

Original transcript

[0:00] The AI people are making it impossible for anybody to understand what they've done. And they're using words like, well, the AI failed to be aligned. Okay, what does that mean? What it means is there was a bug in the software. When Word ate your file and deleted all your content, we didn't think that demons had taken over Word and made it do things against the will of man. it's supposed to do, it's a bug. When AI does something we didn't expect, is it misaligned, or does the software just have a bug? A16Z board partner and former Microsoft Windows president, Steven Sanofsky, joins Theo Jaffe and Sofia Puccini on MTS to argue that the language around AI safety is making the technology harder to understand. Drawing on decades of building incident reporting, and what today's industry can learn from earlier software failures, computer viruses, and Y2K. They also discuss why terms like alignment, goal-seeking, and rogue agents can distort the policy debate, and why treating AI more like software could lead to clearer conversations about both safety and regulation. We are live with Stephen Sinofsky, Substack and the book Hardcore Software. Previously, he was the president of Microsoft's Windows division, engineering and marketing across Windows, Windows Live and Internet Explorer. And he posts on Twitter at Steve SI. Stephen, welcome back. Howdy. So we were just talking about, we're in DC right now at the FAI office. Not at FAI? Yeah, we're at FAI. And we've been talking about all of the new regulation and new laws that have been proposed for the AI industry over the last few weeks, including the Stop Rogue AI Act. Act, which was proposed by Josh Gottheimer. of New Jersey. And you're offering some thoughts on this. What's your take? Well, sure. Well, right now we're in the maximal phase of like, let's just throw tons of legislation out there. So real quick, I'm just going to take you back. I can't believe we're going to take you this far back. This is going to seem like infinity years ago in another dimension of time and space. But in 1983, I was a freshman in college. And one day in the fall, And there were two people in our 100-person dorm that had computers, me and another guy. And that was it. And there was nothing to do with them. Nobody knew why we had them, blah, blah, blah. And one day, Literally, literally, G-Men in Suits. crashed our dorm, confiscated the other guy's computer, and arrested him. Wow. And It turns out, Fast forward a little bit. He was part of a hacker group. One of the very, very, very first hacker groups called the inner circle or the inner ring. And they were hacking this thing called GTE TeleMail. GTE was a big communications company. And it was one of the very first online mail services that that you used a modem and you dialed up and you could just mail other people without telemail. Who were some of the clients of it? The United States government, And NASA, in particular, Earth. And, Immediately after this series of arrests, they arrested people all over the country in this coordinated sting operation. I mean, imagine, I'm a freshman in college, and they just carted this guy off with this IBM PC XT that weighed 50 pounds at a giant monitor. And it was like a freshman in the same, we were the computer science majors together. And it turns out, that there was no crime committed. It wasn't illegal to do what they were doing. There was no law that they were violating. Oh, wow. Suddenly, there were all of these hearings. And in the hearings in Congress, they're literally playing clips of the new movie War Games and explaining like what this is happening. Like these kids in high school are going to take over the government and launch all the nuclear weapons. And that's what really happened. And it took... Several years before the first... federal crime statute for hacking. And Ronald Reagan signed that. And that's what became illegal. And then five years later, four years after that, I'm at my first homecoming, and I'm And I go upstairs to the computer science building. to go see my old advisor, like the day before. And there's a press conference going on. It was the weirdest thing I'd ever seen, a press conference in the middle of Ithaca, New York. And it turns out that was the press conference to announce that they've found a computer worm called the Morris computer worm that had originated from Cordell. And that was the very... [5:00] first prosecution under this, Criminal act. And so this stuff for me goes way, way back. So I'm very comfortable with all the congresspeople posing legislation and having hearings, being hysterical. But right now we have this huge problem. And well-intentioned people like Congressman Goheimer are getting on TV in the morning and saying – We need a bill to stop rogue AI agents. and the Stop Rogue AI Act, and you listen to all of this, And you realize we have a huge problem. And this huge problem is just making my head explode, which is, The AI people are, are making it impossible for anybody to understand what they've done. And they're using words like Well, the AI failed to be aligned. Okay, what is that? Me. What it means is there was a bug in the software. The software did not do what we thought it would do. But when you say misaligned, it, it, puts all these characteristics on AI that it was thinking of doing something, that it had to make a moral judgment, that it had rules and guidelines to do things. And it's like, wow, We had bugs in spreadsheets where they didn't do what we thought that they were supposed to do. And we didn't sit around like in a circle and, and pray to the gods of alignment that the spreadsheet would do math correctly. When Word ate your file and deleted all your content, we didn't think that demons had taken over Word and made it do things against the will of man. And this is a huge, huge problem because it's literally nonsense what they're saying. Like there was a bug. Like when software doesn't do what it's supposed to do, it's a bug. Now there's different kinds of software. There's simulations and there's models and there's emulation. There are all these ways to decide what to do. And just because it decides to do it not based on step one, step two, step three, if A or B do step five, but just based on statistics, that doesn't mean you eliminate the idea that it should do what you want it to do. It means your statistics are wrong. It means that you guessed a word that should come next that shouldn't have come next. And that's just a bug in your product. And we've got to get to a place where people are talking about software like it's software. You know, if full self-driving blows through a stop sign, Because the software interpreted the stop sign as like a Christmas tree. We don't sit around and say, oh, it was not aligned with the idea of December holiday seasons and road signs. We actually say... It's a bug and it's a very dangerous bug because that stop sign means something. And Tesla... built in all of these tools and Waymo. They have all of this telemetry, all these diagnostics, all these extra cameras, all of these things. that you don't normally put in A spreadsheet. But you put in software that Life depends on it. And it's making mathematical, statistical decisions on things. What I see is, is The AI... models are still in the research project phase. They don't have all the tools and all the telemetry and all of the things that you would normally put in software doing important things. And I lived through this. We went through a whole... 20 years of building software, where we actually never really knew why it crashed. It just crashed, and we went, oh, no. Software crashes. Let's make a list of all the places it crashes and fix the top 10. And then one day we said, well, why, we literally, did say this. Someone said, why don't we just write a program, such that when it crashes, It uses this new internet thing to tell us that it crashed. And suddenly we had telemetry and suddenly, We had more bugs to fix than we knew it ever existed. Like we literally went from like, we're shipping, we have no bugs, we're ready to go to, oh my God, we have enough bugs that if we just stopped work. we would just fix bugs for the rest of time. Yeah. So when you talk about an AI pause, Of course they should slow down. They should stop adding things and go and add the telemetry, the tools, the logging, the step-by-step debugging, all of the stuff. that you would add if your software did anything at all important and you cared if it did it right. And you read all the bug reports from OpenAI. that they just put out yesterday. And it's super clear that they just, they don't know. And so they, like, if somebody had handed me a bug report, and this is, here's a real bug. In 1987, the first version of Excel for Windows had a bug in it. That. Somewhere on the disk, it wrote the word Send dogs. Just S-I-N-D-O-G-S- [10:00] a particular Windows settings file. It was like Excel got taken over by demons. And it wrote this word to the file. Nobody knew where that word came from. Everybody was looking through all the Excel source code to find the word send dogs and to figure out And no one could find it. And so somebody said, you know what we're going to do? We're just going to run Excel brutally, nonstop, doing a million different things for days on end. And so one tester, wrote a script that created graph after graph after graph, and printed it on an old school dot matrix printer. And it turns out if you did that for like two days, It would write sin dogs. to that one spot in the file. I thought it was all contextual, and it was based on how much memory the computer had, how long it ran for, and what, printer and device driver was all in use. We could have very easily just concluded... It did this. The Excel brain decided to print Sendog somewhere. But we didn't. We actually went and debugged it. And then we put in all of this telemetry. The first thing I learned when I got to Microsoft was how to figure out buffer overruns and memory allocation and to put that code into every product. And then there was a version, you know, what happens is there's a version of Excel that runs that has all this extra logging. And we ran that internally for the beta tests. And so all of that infrastructure, I have no idea in these models how much is there. I can just tell you, reading the reports that OpenAI put out, it's not enough. They're just, They're not grown up yet as... as platforms for doing what they do. And they've got to figure that out. And they should just do that. They should just wake up and say, we have to go do that. And they shouldn't be like saying, okay, well, Congress needs to meet and order us through legislation to fix our software. Like literally this is their, it's like you have one job. Making software that works. That's it. That's the job. then that turns out to be a really important part of your job. Again, done ranting. Ask me a question. No, I really like. the historical perspective that you bring to it? I also think like, you know, the tendency to talk about alignment as if it's impossible or as if it's this like mythical, impossible task is really damaging. We have to solve alignment. Yeah. Whatever that means. I mean, I think that that will happen. Like, I don't think that it's like this... unanswerable question or like domain that's impossible. Um, But I do think that what's different, even if you use the bug analogy, is that the total addressable surface area of the bug is... is obviously more catastrophic in theory. Or this is the least surface area that the bug will ever have. And then in the future, it just becomes... - Well, that's one of the things that, I mean again, all of these things, I was young once, And I remember sitting in a room going, yeah, our software, it's not like mainframe software. And all the IBM people were looking at us saying, you know, your software is really crappy. Windows is just like crap compared to these IBM things that run all the banks and all the airlines and all the power plants. And for a long time, we kept looking at them and saying, no, you don't understand. We're different. This is all new and cool. And we run on 64K, not one megabyte. And we cost $5,000, not $5 million. And we had all of these reasons to claim that. that our bugs were okay. In terms of bugs. And in terms of all we had to do was grow up. and watch people use Excel to decide how do planes fly, use Word to file briefs in the Supreme Court, use PowerPoint to present the Challenger space shuttle failure. But like once you use your tools for that, and so one of the things that happened was the very first Internet worm happened. So the Internet then is like people using America Online and sending email emails. and stuff like that. There's very little corporate email. Nobody to eat. But it turns out there was just enough that if somebody used Outlook, Word, and internet email all together, they could grind the entire United States and world economy to a halt. And that's literally what happened in March of 1998. I wake up. And there's a reporter hyperventilating on the phone to me saying, I love you. I love you. I love you. And it turns out that was a virus that got created that then spread over the internet as a worm. And the next day, the headlines were $12 billion worth of damage to the U.S. economy in one day. And so I did that. And we had to have a meeting and go, we're going to pause the development of Outlook right now until we figure this out. Nobody had imagined you could create a bug that in... 12 hours could do $12 billion worth of damage. But we didn't. Woohoo! Yay, team! And so, of course, the more people use a system, the more... damage you can do if it goes [15:00] try. But that's like, Table stakes. That's like what you literally signed up to do. The fact that it caught you off guard or that, wow, we're so popular, we can't figure it out so quickly because we're still competing. That's like too bad. Tough luck. One of the most famous tech journalists, every time there was a bug in our software... And I would do what he would just make fun of me because I would say, well, it's not so straightforward or it's hard or it's complicated. He would just look at me. And just say, Sanofsky, That's why you're paid the big bucks. It's not an option. It's not a thing that you get to appeal to some higher authority, whether it's the United States Congress or embedded testers or some other third-party evaluators or just laws of nature. That's not any option. Like this is a tool for, that human beings are building. that other humans are using. You've got to figure out how to make it work. or not sell it. Like those are your two choices. And since it's made by people, we're fully capable of figuring out how to make it work. It wasn't handed down. It didn't show up like an obelisk of one by four by nine that we're supposed to figure out how does it do what it does and what's its source of power. It like literally it had no code. Then it had a little bit of code and a few users and a lot of code and a lot of users. We've all been there through this. It is It is pure insanity. to just sit and argue that higher powers need to be summoned in order to fix this. And alignment has this very specific problem. which is the only way to be aligned is to have a very large set of rules. that say what alignment is. You can do this, you can't do that. This is safe, this is unfair. And it turns out software is well understood. that if you don't put too many constraints on a system, then its system won't work. and you'll have an infinite number of unintended side effects. And so you can't really... Just say we're going to align Because you're going to have to come up with a rule. And then when you come up with this rule, someone's going to say, yeah, but what about this case? Then you're going to add another rule. And you know what that starts to look like? It starts to look like Google. and all the work that they constantly have to do to decide how to present search results. And it turns out that's really, really, really hard. And they have spent 20 years and thousands of people full-time forever working. Working on that. And so that's what they've just signed up for the next level version of it because they're also making up the results. Not just searching through the node club entities for the results, but they're also synthesizing it. So they're going to have to invent a whole bunch of stuff, but none of it has to do. There's no law that's going to make it invented. Like it's just all on them. I'm all wound up. How similar do you think AI alignment is to like Y2K in that it's, you know, it's something of a real problem. It was addressed proactively by companies operating under their own incentives, and then it ended up not becoming a global catastrophic risk. Well, there's a cause and effect there. There was a lot of worry by professionals. And then there was a lot of taking of responsibility by professionals. And then nothing bad happened. there's a direct causal relationship. Like the fact that we rented generators and campers and move computers into secure bunkers. Like that led to the fact that nothing happened. But nobody legislated. Actually, there were actually... weird regulations about Y2K compliance, but most of it was industry- drafted. There was a cross consortium of banks and of insurance companies and all sorts of people to generate the rules and what meant. We had... Something that OpenAI needs to get together with with with all the model frontier people and the labs. And they just need to have much better reporting. The reporting that they did yesterday, sure, it's a great first step. But that is not anywhere near the kind of reporting that you need as a third party to understand what went on. You see all of this information, what versions of software, what are the context of it, what are the steps required, what other software is impacted, what other bugs are related, what is it a derivative of it? Like you see all of this information. So we need a version of that for AI. And maybe yesterday, giving them the benefit of the doubt was a first step. it still felt more like marketing covering for the event. Because it still said a lot of stuff like, Well, we are looking into this, but we presume at this point, okay, well then don't write anything. Like go figure out, like the Federal Aviation Administration Does not like announce on the day of some awful event, We presume what happened. They just keep their mouths shut until they know. And then when they know They really, really, really tell you [20:00] with the tick-tock down to the partial second, with all of the telemetry of the instruments. And that's what CVEs are. And they need to do way, way more because these are defects in the software. And it's just so critical to wrap our heads around the fact that that's what's going on. It's not divine intervention. It's not, you know, oh my God, we need to spark up more of the left brain of this thing to make it more rational. It's silly. Yeah. So I guess with the Stop Rogue AI Act, for example, do you think that these are people in Congress having imperfect information about what's going on in the labs? And so then they tend to use this like more anthropomorphic language. Or do you think it's more intentional? Like they know that this is what will spark a reaction in the people or will get some sort of like populist support? Well, it's really important right now to not ascribe, you know, ill motives to people when they're doing stuff because that's not going to bring everybody together to solve the problem. I have no idea why anybody is doing anything. I actually think look AI was you know in a Dartmouth summer conference they started talking about human brains and consciousness and all this stuff So there a long history in all fields of academic research to basically be too cutesy about things Like, because that's how you get attention in academia. Your paper has a cool title and all that. So it's no surprise that something that had its roots in academia carried forth all of this terminology. But it's just time to stop. Like, the terminology is driving people apart. Because people presume a vast amount of stuff when you use metaphor or allegory or anthropomorphism, and it's just not true. Like, this stuff is not acting with any of the verbs that it says. It's not, it's goal-seeking in this old-school technical sense that it, oh, well, there's a curve, and it's trying to get to the bin or to the max, and that's a goal-seeking in those terms. but it's not. When a normal person like a congressman hears goal-seeking, they think of a person trying to get an A in college. And then when they hear cheating, they hear that they did the thing you're not allowed to do. And when they hear secretly coordinating they think of spies invading the country They don think of two pieces of software with a semaphore which is just another form of secretly coordinating Yeah all the language is absolutely destroying this dialogue And look the very beginning of the word computer virus was kind of a fluke, but it turns out it happened at exactly the wrong time. It happened right when AIDS and HIV were a thing. So virus was like in the air everywhere. So if you listen to the computer hearings from the 1980s about the first viruses, they're scary in that context because people are literally thinking about death. But that's not at all what was happening. It was a metaphor that one person in graduate school picked up on from a friend. Right. And in fact, they were smart enough back then, a little trivia, he wrote his thesis on computer viruses and it basically proved there's nothing you can do about them. They're here forever, which of course is a metaphor to how people thought about HIV at the same time. But he also couldn't prove it because his university wouldn't let him run the test because he was writing a paper about how dangerous all this software was and they wouldn't let him use the computer to run the test. Right Yeah I mean it seems like viruses are actually kind of avoidable mean obviously like there will always be some viruses out there at all times but you know we still get to use computers normally almost all the time without worrying about everything we have getting hacked yes and why is that because we have defensive cyber security because yes because industry said, well, this is bad. We can't allow this to happen. And so Apple did a fantastic, they did such a good job that they made up TV commercials on a Mac and on a PC. And they told people that Macs are better because they get fewer viruses, not by some fluke of nature, but because they did a whole bunch of work on the Mac to prevent viruses from happening. And it just so happened, it was work that was very, very difficult for Windows to do because of the business model of Windows and all this other stuff. Yes. I remember the, like, I'm a Mac, I'm a PC, like, video ad thing. Yes. Where the PC guy was, like, sneezing and coughing. He was like, oh, I have this terrible virus going around. And then the Mac guy's like, oh, I think I'll be good. You know, Macs don't get viruses. I think what's funny is that... You know, this hurts. Those hurt me physically, thinking about those commercials. But yes. Yeah. Yeah. Like, alignment is, like, just a really advanced... [25:00] capability eventually or alignment will mean like the same thing as like very deeply competent team that's able to tackle very, very like high level issues. Absolutely. You can think of it Like, We went through a phase where we couldn't figure out what a bug was. I know that sounds crazy. But like some people wanted a bug to only mean like, You lost your data. Other people were like, well, maybe your data's fine, but the computer still crashes. And we eventually decided a bug just means the software... And the computer... didn't do what you wanted it to do. You weren't happy with the result. And we allowed customers to tell us any bug in the world, And we... Put them all in a database. And so suddenly we went from Only the bugs we could find. to the bugs of the universe. And we went from thousands to hundreds of thousands. But then we put of both a severity and a priority. And so a severity meant like at one, you lost your data. And at three, well, it was flaky. And a priority meant must fix this. And so we walked around the whole lingo of our hallway with Sev One, Pride One. And IBM, the old people at IBM looked at us and said, We've been doing this since 1965. Like, where have you guys been? And we were all proud of ourselves for inventing it. And so much of what's going on now is we're in the throes of inventing this way to talk about what is a bug in a stochastic statistical system. But it turns out software has been doing that for years. The weather forecast is exactly this. It's a statistical model of what's going on, and it depends on a bunch of inputs and a bunch of outputs, and it's wrong. And when the weather forecast is wrong, Like when they predict a hurricane path and then the hurricane goes through in a different way. The weather people all get together and look at the model and talk about the bugs in the model that led to the incorrect forecast. They don't appeal to. to Zeus and say, please, Zeus, tell us why our weather was wrong. Right. Well, we're coming up on time, but it's been great having you on. Yeah, we'll need more sort of fresh perspectives like this in AI world. Especially from like software veterans. Yeah, I'm quite sympathetic to this view. We need software, but we also need like the AI people to listen to the operational security people because everything that happened with Hugging Face and Op AI, it was an OPSEC failure. There was no intelligence, no consciousness, nothing but a pure OPSEC failure. And they need to treat it like that, and they need to talk about it like that. Because otherwise, we're going to get legislation no one is going to be happy with, because they don't understand what our industry is saying. Thanks, guys. Seems like we're all right there. Thanks so much, Steven. Steven, thanks so much for coming on MTS. 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