节目开场，主讲人情绪高昂地展示了自己的公开投资账户（Public Account）的强劲反弹，用“薄煎饼又开始翻面了”（The flapjacks are back flipping）来形容行情的回暖。持仓中的核心标的出现全面爆发：AMD 单日上涨 33,000 美元，使该账户的总收益重新回到了约 110 万美元的水平；亚马逊（Amazon）单日带来 20,000 美元的浮盈；Celsius 带来 11,000 美元收益；Palantir 也上涨了 8,500 美元。主讲人指出，市场上经常出现大盘科技股被抛售的现象，但投资者总能一次又一次地看到相同的剧本重演：“华尔街将这些股票抛售后，你总能发现，他们最终总是会直接回到大盘科技股中来，那些被抛售的股票最终又被原封不动地买了回来。”（“Wall Street will sell these stocks off. And then what you find time and time again is what? It's always the same thing. They eventually come right back to the big tech stocks. And those same stocks that sold off are the ones that end up getting right bought, right back up.”）
subgraph ShillerView ["传统空头视角 (席勒市盈率)"]
A["过去10年平均通胀调整盈利"] --> B["席勒 PE 突破 40 倍"]
B --> C["历史上仅见于大萧条与2000年科技泡沫破裂前夕"]
C --> D["得出结论：市场处于极度危险的超级泡沫"]
end
subgraph FundamentalShift ["现代科技多头视角 (新基本面范式)"]
E["AI驱动与全球数字化扩张"] --> F["非单年波动，而是多年营收与利润超级加速"]
F --> G["顶级科技股前瞻 PE 维持在 20-30 倍之间"]
G --> H["英伟达等巨头前瞻 PE 仅约 22 倍，远低于历史泡沫期百倍估值"]
end
```
然而，主讲人指出了当今市场与 2000 年科技泡沫时期的本质区别：
1. **盈利质量与确定性截然不同**：在 2000 年科技泡沫破灭前，许多受到狂热追捧的上市公司本身就是个笑话，毫无实际盈利支撑；而今天支撑指数的核心科技龙头规模极其庞大，拥有坚不可摧的盈利能力。
2. **前瞻估值倍数不可同日而语**：2000 年泡沫高潮时，许多公司的前瞻市盈率（Forward P/E）被疯狂推高至 100 倍、150 倍甚至 200 倍。反观当下美股顶梁柱，主流龙头的前瞻市盈率普遍落在 20 至 30 倍区间。“基于数据而非个人观点，我敢断言，相比当年的科技泡沫时代，如今人们对待市盈率和前瞻市盈率的态度明显要理性得多。”（“People are taking, I can tell you, based upon, once again, the numbers, not an opinion, based upon the numbers, people are being much more reasonable with PE ratios and forward PE ratios, than they certainly took in the tech bubble days right now.”）主讲人以英伟达（NVIDIA）为例说明，当前英伟达的前瞻市盈率大概只有 22 倍左右；若置身于当年那个狂热的科技泡沫时代，面对英伟达这样的巨头，投机狂潮早就将其前瞻市盈率炒到了 100 倍甚至 150 倍。
3. **高席勒市盈率已成长期常态**：席勒市盈率并不是在今年才突然飙升的，事实上它早在 2010 年代后期就已经突破了 30 倍，并且在 2020 年代的大部分时间里都维持在高位。如果单凭该指标就认定是泡沫，就意味着必须承认市场已经处在泡沫中很多年，或者说明底层商业环境已经发生了深层次的范式转移。
“在整个人类历史上，我们从未见过类似的事情，朋友们，这太离谱了，简直太离谱了。”（“We've never seen something like this in all of human history, folks. This is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous.”）面对空头不断挥舞估值大棒，主讲人认为商业世界已经跨入了一个崭新的盈利范式（new paradigm），现代科技巨头的盈利效率已经彻底颠覆了以往任何一个周期的历史对照体系。
[10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=600s) A Historic Paradigm Shift in Profit Margins: 2008 vs. Today
The speaker emphasizes that current market conditions cannot be compared to the dot-com bubble, the Great Depression, or any prior era because public companies have never been this fundamentally strong or profitable. Looking back to when the speaker first began investing around 2008 or 2009—roughly eighteen years ago—the corporate landscape was dominated by traditional giants with comparatively modest margins. At that time, ExxonMobil led the world with a $350 billion market capitalization, followed by Microsoft at $250 billion, Walmart and Apple just under $200 billion each, and JPMorgan Chase at nearly $180 billion. The net margins of those market leaders were grounded in a very different reality: ExxonMobil sat at 6.4%, Microsoft was an outlier at 25%, Walmart earned 3.3%, Apple was at 19%, and JPMorgan produced 11.7%. This was the baseline of what ordinary profitability looked like in that era.
By contrast, the modern market heavyweights operate on margins that defy historical precedent. The speaker highlights today's mega-caps: NVIDIA and Apple at the $5 trillion tier, Alphabet ("Google McDougal") and Microsoft at $4 trillion, and Amazon at $2.7 trillion. Their bottom-line efficiency is unprecedented: NVIDIA boasts an astonishing 63% net margin, Alphabet sits around 55%, Microsoft captures 40%, Apple generates 27%, and Amazon represents the group's "low" figure at just under 11%. Yet, even Amazon’s 11% margin is more than triple Walmart’s 3.3% net margin from 2008. The speaker stresses that investors trying to benchmark these numbers against historical cycles will find no equivalent: “You can't compare this to the tech bubble. You can't compare this to the Great Depression or any time ever in history, 'cause we've never seen companies be this strong, this good.”
[12:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=729s) The Catalysts Driving Supercharged Profitability
The speaker turns to the mechanics behind how today's businesses are generating profits that were previously unthinkable. Several structural forces have converged. First, corporate tax rates were lowered several years ago, leaving significantly more capital directly on the bottom line, alongside far more sophisticated tax management strategies executed by modern leadership. Second, modern business models do not rely on massive physical labor forces. Instead of operating sprawling factories where a thousand workers punch in and punch out on a time clock, contemporary tech corporations generate astronomical revenue and profit per employee.
Furthermore, software and internet distribution allow modern enterprises to expand globally within a few short years—a feat that was physically impossible decades ago. Layered on top of this frictionless global scaling is artificial intelligence. While AI requires substantial upfront capital expenditure, it provides an enormous back-end productivity dividend that unlocks even greater operational leverage. As the speaker explains, “Like you can launch a product, a service, and expanding around the globe within a few years nowadays, you should not be able to do that.”
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Catalysts of Modern Corporate Margin Expansion
accDescr: Diagram illustrating the four primary structural drivers behind modern tech margin growth.
subgraph MacroPolicy["Tax & Capital Efficiency"]
T1["Lower Statutory Corporate Taxes"]
T2["Sophisticated Corporate Tax Planning"]
end
subgraph ScalingModel["Operational Leverage"]
L1["High Revenue & Profit Per Employee"]
L2["Frictionless Global Digital Distribution"]
end
subgraph TechnologyDriver["Technology Multipliers"]
AI1["Upfront AI Hardware Capex"]
AI2["Massive Back-End Productivity Gains"]
end
MacroPolicy --> Out["Historic Net Profit Margins (40% - 63%)"]
ScalingModel --> Out
AI1 --> AI2 --> Out
```
[13:46](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=826s) Mega-Cap Revenue Growth: Past Stagnation vs. Modern Surges
In addition to margins, the sheer top-line revenue velocity of today’s market leaders sets them entirely apart from previous market peaks. When the speaker started investing, the top-tier corporations posted tepid numbers: ExxonMobil’s revenue was outright contracting, Microsoft managed about 9% growth, Walmart grew around 8%, Apple hovered near 10% before the iPhone truly transformed its top line, and JPMorgan was flat to down. Historically, defensive market leaders like Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, or Coca-Cola expanded revenues at modest rates of 3% to 6%—a pace the speaker playfully dismisses: “Those stocks, you know, Coca-Cola, those stocks would have revenue growth of, you know, 3, 5, 6%? Put me to sleep.”
Today's behemoths, despite commanding multi-trillion-dollar valuations, expand at aggressive double-digit clips. NVIDIA’s top-line revenue recently surged by 106%, Alphabet achieved 24% revenue growth, Amazon climbed 20%, Microsoft gained 18%, and Apple grew 16%. In the speaker’s view, seeing companies at the very summit of global market cap growing at 16% to over 100% is entirely unprecedented in economic history.
[15:17](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=917s) Trailing vs. Forward P/E: Why Backward-Looking Metrics Mislead
The conversation moves to the widespread debate over whether stocks are overvalued, focusing on the sharp divergence between trailing and forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiples. Looking strictly in the rearview mirror makes the market appear stretched: the S&P 500 trades at a trailing P/E of 23.5, while the Nasdaq 100 sits at an elevated 30.2. However, factoring in consensus earnings expectations paints a very different picture. The forward P/E of the S&P 500 contracts to 19.2, and the Nasdaq 100 drops to 21.4.
This compression proves that underlying corporate earnings are growing at an extraordinary speed. The speaker argues that evaluating the market purely on trailing twelve-month figures is inherently flawed, because trailing multiples only penalize the market if earnings collapse. When earnings are accelerating dramatically, backward-looking ratios make high-quality assets look deceptively expensive. Running projections out to a two-year forward horizon makes the broader market look significantly cheaper than bears claim. Emphasizing the forward-looking nature of asset pricing, the speaker observes: “If you think the market's expensive on a trailing P basis, just look at the forward P and you're going to come to a very different conclusion.”
[16:53](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=1013s) The Looming Non-Cash Threat: Hundreds of Billions in AI Chip Depreciation
Despite the overwhelming bullish fundamental data, the speaker sounds an alarm on an underappreciated headwind: massive impending depreciation charges from AI infrastructure. Nearly every major tech company has allocated unprecedented capital expenditures to purchase high-end semiconductor chips, primarily from NVIDIA. Unlike real estate or physical buildings, these processors have an exceptionally brief operational shelf life. Tech firms are preparing to depreciate this hardware over roughly a five-to-six-year cycle, which will inject hundreds of billions of dollars of depreciation expenses directly onto corporate income statements over the next several years.
The speaker points out that while depreciation is strictly a non-cash accounting expense—the physical cash having left company coffers years prior—it will visibly depress GAAP net income, shrink reported net margins, and weigh down earnings per share (EPS). To illustrate this dynamic, the speaker draws an analogy to the gaming and hospitality operator Wynn Resorts, which must account for heavy annual property depreciation. However, the speaker argues that Wynn’s position is structurally superior because real estate and land appreciate in intrinsic value over time. Advanced AI chips, by contrast, become effectively worthless after four to five years. Rapid semiconductor innovation means that successive chip generations require far less energy to process identical workloads while unlocking exponentially greater compute capacity, rendering older silicon obsolete or physically worn out. Warning investors to prepare for this accounting reality, the speaker states: “It's once again a non-cash expense, but it's going to make you look less profitable and could make your net margins look lower than what people have gotten used to.”
- **Accounting Reality:** Chip purchases are capitalized and depreciated over a 5 to 6-year horizon as a non-cash expense.
- **Income Statement Impact:** Directly reduces reported operating income, net margins, and EPS, even while cash flow metrics remain detached.
- **Obsolescence Factor:** Semiconductor hardware loses almost all utility within 4 years due to drastic improvements in power efficiency and compute density.
- **Comparison to Real Estate:** Unlike hospitality assets (e.g., Wynn Resorts) where land and structures hold residual or appreciating value, legacy GPUs face rapid functional and economic obsolescence.
[19:35](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=1175s) Unprecedented Velocity: The Exponential Rise of Anthropic
The scale and acceleration of modern AI-driven expansion outstrip even the fastest-growing enterprises of the 1990s tech bubble. To capture just how radical this acceleration has been, the speaker points to AI research and development startup Anthropic. Only three years ago, Anthropic was virtually unknown outside of hyper-niche artificial intelligence circles and operated with effectively zero dollars in revenue. In an impossibly compressed timeframe, it has skyrocketed into an industry powerhouse generating massive annual run-rate revenues by the close of the current year. The speaker notes the sheer anomaly of this trajectory: “Anthropic was basically a company with no revenue three years ago. You never heard of Anthropic three years ago unless you're like, insanely into AI, okay? And it was basically a zero dollar company in terms of revenue.”
> “My view is they're both wrong. I don't, you know, the fact is, I don't think we're in a cheap market right now. I think we're in a fairly valued market.”
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Long-term Investment vs Macro Noise
accDescr: A comparison showing how ignoring short-term macro fears and focusing on company fundamentals drives long-term portfolio growth.
subgraph NOISE["宏观噪音与恐慌情绪"]
N1["主流媒体唱空言论<br/>(CNBC / Bloomberg)"]
N2["名人名嘴喊单恐慌<br/>(如 Ray Dalio 等)"]
N3["教条化估值束缚<br/>(单看席勒PE / 历史高位)"]
end
subgraph WORK["实操核心基本面研究"]
W1["精研公司财报与商业模式"]
W2["搭建盈利与估值预测模型"]
W3["深入收听季度业绩电话会"]
end
[30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=1800s) RH's Small-Format Store Pivot and the Cabela's Playbook
Drawing from long-term retail history, the speaker highlights a major operational transition occurring at RH by comparing it directly to an early investment success with Cabela's. Long before starting on YouTube, the speaker observed Cabela's pivot away from gigantic footprints of 150,000 to 200,000 square feet into leaner, smaller-format locations measuring between 40,000 and 80,000 square feet (often settling right around 60,000 square feet). This shift allowed Cabela's to penetrate geographic markets that could never accommodate a mega-store, massively reduced upfront construction expenditures, improved inventory assortment, and expanded overall corporate margins over time.
RH is now executing this identical playbook to capture the upcoming rebound in housing. By downsizing new store formats, RH avoids overbuilding massive footprints while significantly reducing capital expenditures and real estate lead times. As the speaker explains: “Cut down on construction costs, be able to fit more stores in more places and better margin profile for RH over time.”
- **Historical Precedent**: Cabela's scaled down from 150,000–200,000 sq. ft. footprints to 40,000–80,000 sq. ft., dramatically boosting profitability.
- **Strategic Impact for RH**: Lower development costs, flexible site selection in tighter high-end markets, and higher product-margin density per square foot.
---
[30:38](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=1838s) SoFi Technologies: Building a Future $100 Billion Banking Giant
Turning to the third core pick for the next three years, the speaker crowns SoFi Technologies as the single best-positioned disruptor in consumer finance. In the public portfolio, the position is already up over $28,000, having been accumulated starting when shares traded around $6 and change up to the current level near $14. The speaker expresses deep conviction that traditional banking is ripe for long-term displacement, asserting: “I can't find a financial institution out there that I feel like is more well-positioned to become a financial giant, a banking giant.”
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: SoFi Compounding Engine
accDescr: Diagram showing how SoFi acquires members, cross-sells products, and leverages operating efficiency into a massive market cap.
subgraph Acquisition ["Member Funnel"]
A["Low-Cost Member Acquisition"] --> B["High Brand Loyalty & Trust"]
end
subgraph Flywheel ["Financial Flywheel"]
B --> C["Cross-Sell Products (Lending, Invest, Checking)"]
C --> D["Asset-Light Operating Model"]
end
subgraph LongTerm ["Terminal Value"]
D --> E["$100B+ Market Cap Vision"]
end
```
The roadmap to reaching a valuation of $100 billion or more requires clear operational discipline: CEO Anthony Noto must avoid overleveraging the balance sheet, keep the operational model as asset-light as possible, capitalize aggressively during bull markets, and maintain conservative underwriting to survive downturns. The engine relies on acquiring members once, delighting them, and systematically cross-selling them additional financial products with minimal incremental acquisition cost. Praising the leadership team, the speaker emphasizes: “Anthony Noto's done a heck of a job running that company. Came over from Goldman Sachs a long time ago. Very impressive.”
The episode concludes with a sign-off to viewers, pointing them toward the pinned comment for access to an upcoming "1,000X sale" scheduled to drop on Halloween.
- **Public Account Performance**: Over $28,000 in unrealized gains, initiated at approximately $6 per share against the current price of ~$14.
- **Long-Term Target**: Trajectory targeting a $100+ billion market capitalization as it scales into a full-fledged global banking leader.
- **Operating Priorities**: Maintain an asset-light posture, prevent over-leverage, drive multi-product cross-selling per member, and endure credit cycles intact.
## Notable quotes
> [15:17](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=917s) If you think the market's expensive on a trailing P basis, just look at the forward P and you're going to come to a very different conclusion. — 浑水摸鱼清源
> [21:38](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=1298s) I don't think we're in a cheap market right now. I think we're in a fairly valued market. — 浑水摸鱼清源
> [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1KcJZ64E47?t=600s) You can't compare this to the tech bubble. You can't compare this to the Great Depression or any time ever in history, 'cause we've never seen companies be this strong, this good. — 浑水摸鱼清源
[15:17] 浑水摸鱼清源: If you think the market's expensive on a trailing P basis, just look at the forward P and you're going to come to a very different conclusion.
[21:38] 浑水摸鱼清源: I don't think we're in a cheap market right now. I think we're in a fairly valued market.
[10:00] 浑水摸鱼清源: You can't compare this to the tech bubble. You can't compare this to the Great Depression or any time ever in history, 'cause we've never seen companies be this strong, this good.
Original transcript
[0:00] The flapjacks are back flipping, ladies and gentlemen. Look at that. AMD, $33,000 up move there. Back up to about $1.1 million of gains in the public count. Amazon, amazing's on. Anybody owning some Amazon out there? There's a $20,000 move here today in the public count. Celsius, the wealthiest. Let's go, baby. $11,000 move there. Palantir's, $8,500 move there. Obviously, some big upward moves. an interesting phenomenon because you get these big tech stocks to sell out, right? And basically, Wall Street will sell these stocks off. And then what you find time and time again is what? It's always the same thing. They eventually come right back to the big tech stocks. And those same stocks that sold off are the ones that end up getting right bought, right back up. And it's just fascinating because it... we've seen this play out again and again and again and again, and the game always ends the same, right? Check this out. This is Micron stock. Now a lot of you guys probably don't own Micron stock. I don't personally own Micron stock, but I thought this was great to illustrate this point here. Okay. If you look at the past 20 trading days of Micron stock, right? Huge memory chip company. Look at how many of those days had a 2% around a 2% or a larger move. It's around 12 of them. Most days, that stock's moving around 2% or more. With some days, it's moving around 4% or maybe even more than 4%. And here's the thing with Micron. Are they getting some fundamental news each day about like, oh, everybody's cutting back on spending and we're not going to need memory? No, there's no fundamental news we're getting on a day-in and day-out basis in regards to memory. We know there's going to be more memory coming on over the coming years. We know China wants to compete hard in this market, but we know there's some limitations there. But there's no fundamental changes in the market. In the past 20 trading days, but yet that stock is just all over the place in this goes to show you what happens in the market, right? And meanwhile, you got people losing money got people making money, but At the end of the day, you just got to stay focused on the long term with these companies and not get caught up in all this craziness out there. Now, there's a big debate in the market going on right now, and I want to address this debate. Is the market cheap or expensive? And I just don't want to give my opinion. I want to show you data. I want to show you the numbers so you guys can understand, is this a cheap market you're buying into right now or is it an expensive market? Because it seems like people are on both sides of that spectrum. top three stocks In the entire stock market, they have the most upside, in my opinion, for the next three years. And I thought that would be really important. One thing, one thing I'll let you know from you guys, if you could just smash that like button, if you haven't already done so. I appreciate it in a huge way. And to everybody that has already done it, just like... The sign in my garage says, I appreciate you in the biggest way. Also, make sure you're subscribed to the channel. How many subscribers do we have now? I think it's 952,000 here on the main channel. So I appreciate each and every one of you. Hey, big announcement, big announcement. We got a thousand X sale coming on Halloween. It's a one day sale. Halloween, okay? If you want access to the sale, check out the pinned comment down there today i'm going to put the link as the pin comment click on that and go ahead put in your name email or your phone number and we'll send you the deal as soon as it drops on halloween once again It's a huge sale. Like this is our last sale on any product we're having in 2026. So make sure you guys take advantage of that because we're not having a Black Friday sale on any products this particular year. So I just want to let you guys know of that because Q4 is already too crazy as it is like, you know. for that deal for thousand x so i hope you guys really enjoy that get full access to it and then once you join us in there we're going to send your steel membership card to your house very exciting okay all right ladies and gentlemen let's get rolling here is a market cheap is a market expensive right okay listen If you want to know this, it needs to be more than just because what I hear time and time again is like, oh, the market's expensive because look at it's at all time highs. And people say, well, it's cheap because we got AI and AI is a game changer. Right. And other people are saying, well, AI is a bubble. So that's not lasting and all these sorts of things. Right. And it's just people have a lot of opinion. But I like to take it back to the math in regards to a subject like this in the numbers. Right. And what are the numbers say? So. Let me show you this. This is the Shiller P/E ratio. Okay, now the Shiller P/E ratio, it's a price to earnings ratio and it's based on an average inflation adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years.
[5:00] known as cyclically adjusted P-ratio. What you're going to find the more experience you get in the market is... there's no one metric number that is like the end all be all because they all have flaws. Okay. So the Schiller PE ratio could be important because you look at it and you say, okay, this, takes into account 10 years of data and not just like maybe if you're going through an earnings bubble or something like that and that's important right but what if what's going on right now is not just a one-year phenomenon what if this is a multi-year earnings phenomenon revenue phenomenon that we have going on that's going to accelerate companies growth rates for the next several years right which there's a very strong argument to be made that growth rates will be stronger especially for all the stocks that matter the most in the stock market growth rates will be stronger for those companies than we've really seen in a long long time and uh then you're you know used to right now if you were just looking at this Right? Here's the deal. You're at a 40, a 40 plus Shiller PE, right? Usually you're at a 16, 17, somewhere around there. And so this is a, you know, among the highest you've ever seen in history outside of the tech bubble. So if this was all you were looking at. You say, absolutely. Market is expensive. Market's a bubble. Those sorts of things. And you could get more proof of like, I'm right, if you're taking a bearish stance on this, because you say, look it. The last time it was really higher than this was right before the tech bubble popped, right? But the pushback on that is, listen, in the tech bubble days, companies were this big making this sort of profits, okay? In the tech bubble days, a lot of those companies were a joke. And a lot of these companies back then were trading at ridiculous P ratios. We're talking 100 P ratios, 150 P ratios, 200 P ratios, even on a forward P basis, right? market, P ratios are much more in the 20 to 30 range for the top of the market. Forward P's, I mean, look at the forward P on NVIDIA. The forward P on NVIDIA right now is probably a 22, right? You know, if this was a tech bubble days, forward P on NVIDIA would probably be trading at 100 or 150 because people would think it's just going to grow forever, right? People are taking, I can tell you, based upon, once again, the numbers, not an opinion, based upon the numbers, people are with PE ratios and forward PE ratios, than they certainly took in the tech bubble days right now Next up here, this shows you that the, you know, a chart of this over time, right? And it's very scary because you look at and you say, okay, the time periods, it was over 30 right before the Great Depression, right? Right before the tech bubble pop. But here's where things get really interesting is it's not like this Shiller PE just went high. It's been high... for years. years. Look at this. I mean, it's not, this is not new. I mean, the Shiller PE first popped over 30 way back when we were still in the 2010s, right? And then much of the 2020s, it's been, been high. Okay. So this is not a new phenomenon that just like came out of nowhere this year. And it's like, whoa, look at the Shiller PE now. It's so high. No, it's been like this for years, which means, You could say, well, maybe we've been in a bubble for years or maybe there's something else going on here. Right. Let me show you something the bears will never show you. And this is shocking. I'm showing you margins. Okay. These are gross margins and net margins of, you know, I just pulled up a few companies here. Okay. I pulled up Palantir. Obviously, a giant company, what, $500 billion market cap or so. Microsoft's a multi-trillion, and then NVIDIA's the biggest market cap in the world, right? Right. Look at the gross margins of these companies, 84%, 67%, 74%, right? Look at the net margins. That's even more important number I want you to look at. Palantir's net margins are close to 50%. Microsoft's net margins are over 40%, and NVIDIA's net margins are 63%. Like mathematically, you should not even think this was possible. Okay. Like if a company could even get their net margins to 20%, you were like, this company's amazing. Oh my gosh. Like magical company. Now we got companies pushing net margins, 40, 50, 60 plus percent net margins. That's insane. We've never seen something like this in all of human history, folks. This is ridiculous. Absolutely ridiculous. So the moral of the story is here, we're in a new paradigm where these companies... are more profitable
[10:00] and have higher margins in any time period in the past. You can't compare this to the tech bubble. You can't compare this to the Great Depression or any time ever in history, 'cause we've never seen companies be this strong, this good. This is historic history. by any imagination, right? Now look at this. What I'm showing you right now, okay, So these were the biggest market caps when I first got started in the stock market back in like 08, 09. Okay. Exxon Mobil, Microsoft, Walmart, Apple, and JP Morgan. Those were like the biggest companies in the world back when I first started investing. You know, was that 18 years ago or whatever. Right. And Exxon Mobil was a $350 billion market cap. Microsoft was a $250 billion market cap. Walmart was just under $200 billion. Apple was just under $200 billion. And then JP Morgan was just under $180 billion. Right. margins of those companies back then. 6.4% 25%, 3.3%, 19%, and 11.7%, okay? So that's the stock market I came into. That was what was like normal net margins back then, okay? Now, look at this. These are the net margins of the top five biggest stocks nowadays. So what are the biggest stocks nowadays? NVIDIA $5 trillion market cap, Apple $5 trillion, Google McDougal $4 trillion, Microsoft $4 trillion, Amazon $2.7 trillion, right? Look at the net margins, 63%, 27%. 55%, 40%, and Amazon's the low one at just under 11%. But if you compare Amazon to Walmart, we're talking about it's about a 3x net margin, right? Because Amazon's just under 11% net margin and Walmart was at 3.3% back when I got in the market, right? Like, this is crazy. You've never seen something like this before. No one has ever seen something like this before. There's not a historical period you can ever go back to and study and be like, well, back in 1985, blah, blah, blah. No. Okay. No, you might ask yourself, like, how is this happening? Like, how are these companies getting this profitable? How are they achieving things that we've never seen ever? Right? Right. I think a few things here. One, corporate taxes got lower many years ago. That certainly helps. There's just going to be more money to your bottom line than it used to be, right? Additionally, these companies have gotten much more intelligent when it comes to the rest of their taxes. Right. That definitely helps. Additionally, companies are able to. Be way bigger with way less employees in really any time period. Like the revenue per employee and the profit per employee nowadays is like something we've never seen before, right? This is very different than the days when you ran a big factory and you needed to, you know – 1,000 employees clocking in and clocking out at the factory, right? This is very, very different. The ability to scale your business globally is, in an easier fashion is like something we've never seen before, right? Like you can launch a product, a service, and expanding around the globe within a few years nowadays, you should not be able to do that. You know, that just wasn't realistic, obviously, a long, long time ago. So you have that as a factor. And then we have AI. AI is definitely boosting productivity of companies. It's a big upfront capital cost of AI, but there's no doubt it produces greater profits on the back end of that, right? So there's a whole host of factors on why these companies are able to achieve margins that you've never seen. And like I said, there's no historical standard for this. This is the first time in history this has happened, right? Now, additionally, I wanted to show you those companies' revenue growth or lack of revenue growth when I first got in the market versus these companies nowadays at the top of the market that are really driving, right? Look at this. This is shocking. Exxon mobile revenue was down. Microsoft was like 9% growth. Walmart was like 8% growth, right? Apple was like 10% growth. That was before the iPhone started to take off, right? And then JP Morgan was flat to down, right? Now look at NVIDIA, 106% revenue growth. Google McDougal, 24% revenue growth. Amazon, 20% revenue growth. Microsoft, 18% revenue growth. Apple, 16% revenue growth. You can't even compare it. You can't even compare the margins of these companies versus back when I first got on the market or any time period in history or the revenue growth. Like when could you go back and see companies that were at the top of the market with this sort of revenue growth? Like... It used to be like Johnson & Johnson and Procter & Gamble and those sorts of companies were the biggest stocks in the market. Those stocks, you know, Coca-Cola, those stocks would have revenue growth of, you know, 3, 5, 6%? Put me to sleep. Right? And you look at the revenue growth of these companies, we're talking strong double digits, strong double digits. You've never seen the top
[15:00] market grow like this ever. Once again, there's not a historical period you can really go back to. Thank you. And be like, oh yeah, well back... Then these companies at the top of the market were growing revenue 25%. No, that wasn't going on back then, right? Now, next up here, look at the divergence between trailing PE and forward PE. So if you look at the SP500, the trailing PE is 23.5, the forward PE is 19.2. NASDAQ 100, 30.2 trailing PE, seems very high, but the forward piece 21.4. Right. So what this really illustrates, that's what everybody pays attention to the SP500 and the NASDAQ 100. Right. What this really illustrates is the earnings are growing rapidly right now, like at a pace that we've never seen before. Right? So... If you think the market's expensive on a trailing P basis, just look at the forward P and you're going to come to a very different conclusion. Maybe the market's not that expensive. What if you look on a two-year forward P basis? right? And you start projecting those numbers. Now, some people might say, well, Can't project two years out. That's fair. But if you do run the numbers and it's somewhere in that ballpark, you're going to realize, oh, shoot, the market's actually much cheaper than you might think, especially if you're looking at just a trailing 12. Because a trailing P is going to only tell you so much. If the earnings... plummet, then the market's much more expensive. over the next year, right? But if the earnings skyrocket, like they are doing for a lot of these companies, then the market's actually much cheaper than what you're looking at on trillion P basis. And that's why the market's forward looking. The market's always going to be a forward-looking indicator. Now, additionally here, I think this is important to bring up because you do have another dynamic that I don't think is getting talked about enough in the market. And that is depreciation. And this is something I've been talking about really this year. And I'm trying to mentally prepare everybody for because it is going to be a major change. Almost all these big tech companies are buying massive amounts of semiconductors, specifically from NVIDIA, right? Listen, Huge depreciation is coming. These chips are only good for a few years and then basically are irrelevant. Okay. And so you're going to have hundreds of billions of dollars of depreciation to hit these companies over the next several years. Now, when it comes to depreciation, it's a non-cash expense. Okay. The money's already going to have been spent a long time ago for these NVIDIA chips. And then the depreciation starts hitting a lot of these companies are going to take it over a five to six year cycle is what it looks like. Okay. But the moral of the story is here, it will hurt your earnings per share of your company because that is going to be a line item that hits on that income statement. Okay. It's once again a non-cash expense, but it's going to make you look less profitable and could make your net margins look lower than what people have gotten used to. Okay, so the business models are going to be changing and they're going to be getting a little bit more similar to a Wynn Resorts. So if you know me, you know, there's a... The only resort company I pretty much like is a company named Wynn Resorts, right? Wynn Resorts has to take massive depreciation each year. right now the difference between wins depreciation in these other companies I would say wins depreciation is actually much better because if anything their properties appreciate over time because the land is worth so much money, the buildings are worth so much money, right? Unfortunately, with these big tech companies, in their depreciation, These chips are going to be worth like nothing. Like literally, the chips are worthless. after a few years' time. Like no one wants to use those chips anymore because they become like, there's just so much better chips that evolve. Four years in a semiconductor is night and day difference because The energy needed for these chips is going to be dramatically less for a workload four years from now for the chips, then what, you have today, right? And then additionally, what you can achieve also is dramatically different. And so you just got to understand, plus a lot of the times these chips basically... don't even work anymore after four or five years. So that's something to kind of keep in mind here. So The depreciation is a factor that I don't think it's talked about enough. And it is a serious factor. Once again, non-cash expense, but it is something that's going to hurt that earnings per share in the net income of these companies. So it's something you do have to get used to, right? The scale in how fast this is building, we've never seen something like this before. The closest thing would be the tech bubble in regards to companies growing this fast, but this sort of scale We've never seen it like this. Anthropic was basically a company with no revenue three years ago. You never heard of Anthropic three years ago unless you're like, insanely into AI, okay? And it was basically a zero dollar company. in terms of revenue. They're supposed to, by the end of this year, be on a
[20:00] ...rate of $110 billion of revenue. From nothing to 110 billion in three years, we've never seen something like that before. You never saw that sort of scale with Google. with Meta, with Apple, with Microsoft, no one. No one. went from nothing to 110 billion in three years. It's crazy. That's crazy, right? So... This is something to factor in that the growth rates of a lot of these companies You haven't even seen close to the peak In regards to Amazon's AWS growth rates, Or Google's. Growth rates... or Mr. Softee's growth rates We haven't even started to really see the growth rates of a lot of the SaaS businesses that are going to really benefit in a major way like Salesforce and ServiceNow. So that's the other important thing to just understand. We're still very early for a lot of these growth rates. And then so many companies with major, you know, like, For every Palantir that has already seen major growth, I can just tell you there's like 10 companies out there that haven't seen those numbers yet that are going to see major numbers. And that doesn't mean that by the way, they're going to grow like Palantir's grown, but they're going to see major accelerations in their revenue growth. Okay. We haven't even hit that yet. Like that's still coming. And so that's a whole exciting phase of like people realizing, whoa, this company, we thought revenue was never going to accelerate again. All of a sudden accelerates again, right? That's a whole game to play out. That's going to play out in a major way over the next several years here. So the way I look at this, the guys arguing the market's cheap. The guys arguing it's expensive. It's a bubble. My view is they're both wrong. I don't, you know, the fact is, I don't think we're in a cheap market right now. I think we're in a fairly valued market. Based upon the data I look at, in taking all those numbers and all the data into account, I would say we're in a fairly priced market right now. We're not cheap. The 4P is not at a 14 right now in this market, right? Or 12 or something like that. That would be very, very cheap. And I've been in those sorts of markets before within a few years of me investing. I wouldn't say this market's insanely expensive either. Because you've never seen companies with these sorts of margins before that have grown at these sorts of growth rates before. Right. And the Ford P is not bad. You know, if we're a forward piece somewhere around 20-ish for the S&P 500, somewhere around their ballpark, that's not bad. The companies, the way they're growing the businesses nowadays... And once again, the top of the market is what matters the most to the stock market. We all know that, right? So I think that's something to pay attention to, right? Now, the other thing I'll say here, right, look at the public account, nearly $5.1 million, right? Got that portfolio really rolling in 2018. Now, since 2018, when I started that portfolio, right, I've had countless talk over the years on CNBC and Bloomberg, on financial media, all over the place, right, about the market's expensive expensive or cheap right but usually a lot of times when people talk and gets a lot of views it's it's it's expensive right and we're in a bubble Right. And you think about what we've been able to achieve over those years. and how it pays so handsomely to just put your head down and do the work, right? Research the companies, run your numbers, run your projections, listen to earnings calls. It just pays so much better. If I was so caught up into, you know, is a market expensive? Oh, I can't buy stocks right now because a forward P says blah, blah, blah. Or the trillion to a month P says blah, blah, blah. Or the Shiller P says blah, blah, blah. Just think about the massive amounts of money I would have missed. Think about how many stocks have 10x, 20x, 50x, 100x'd. 1,000x over that time period. It's incredible. And think about like if I just sat on my hands and I was just always worried about, well, market's expensive. Unfortunately, you know, you just got to... Put your head down and do the actual work and Focus on building your portfolio over time because that's what will actually get you results in the end. And whether the market's expensive or, you know, it's a silly game. Ray Dalio is going to always come out and he's going to say some negative stuff and going to scare you. And this guy is going to come out and say some stuff that's going to scare you. And this guy is going to say some stuff. And at the end of the day, you're just going to invest all through it. I don't care if the market's in a correction, a crash, a bull market, a kangaroo market, a slightly bullish market. An extreme bull market. You've got to invest right through it all. Because at the end of the day, man, you're going higher over time and every time period in the past, you always look back and you're like, man, the market was so cheap. But the other thing I'll say is, right, you know, since I got in the market, way back in '08-'09, Man, there's always been talk about the market's expensive. Like there's never not been. There's never not been talk about
[25:00] Like even my first few years, like 2009, 2010, people were saying even back then. The market's expensive because look at companies aren't earning that much money and we're in a big recession in this and that and this and that. And at the end of the day, I'm just like, okay, you guys can focus on whatever you're going to focus on. I'm going to focus on making sure that... I'm making wise investments, put my money into the best stocks possible and started with a few hundred bucks and then graduated to a few thousand bucks and then it graduated to tens of thousands and then hundreds of thousands and millions and millions and millions of dollars. Now they got the chain chainsaws going out here. Holy smoke, that ain't no dang joke. Hold your horses. And so you think about the life I'm fortunate to have made over the years, right? And just keep my head down, putting in the work, running the chainsaws. It's like every time I try to record, they're running the chainsaws, but hey... It's what was. It's what we got to deal with. It's what we got to deal with, right? This is kind of like-- the stock market. Like sometimes they're going to have the chainsaws out. They're cutting the stock prices in half, right? They're cutting the stock prices in 30%. They're cutting the stock prices 70%. And if the chainsaws are running, you've got to stay focused on what you've got to stay focused on. Make your investment decisions out there. Make it happen, baby. Alright guys, next up here, let's get into my top three stocks that have the most upside in the entire stock market for the next three years. Okay, you ready? Let's go. Number one of these three is Celsius, the wealthiest. Celsius, the wealthiest. So, so far we're up 22,000 in the public count on this one. That's nothing compared to what we're going to be up over the next few years in regards to Celsius. Celsius brand, Alani brand. The thing that Celsius is really doing well, and by the way, they're connected. with Pepsi as well. Pepsi is a major investor in it. distribution. with Pepsi but the main thing I want to just tell you guys in regards to Celsius is they're building brands for the next many years. Right? Um, in the drink space, you have all these brands kind of like pop up and then go back and pop up and go back. Um, That's the drink space for you. And you have some brain come out of nowhere. Next thing you know, they're doing $100 million in revenue, right? And a few years later, they're irrelevant. And so this is just a phenomenon that happens in the... in the drink market specifically. And I like to look for drink brands that are building lasting brands. And I was able to find one of those a long time ago, Hanson's Natural Beverage, which is owned Monster. And they were able to build multiple brands that were lasting brands, right? And so Celsius is doing the same exact thing. And... They're doing it in a great way. And so they're not just like here today, gone tomorrow, in my personal opinion. And so I look at other brands like Bloom's really hot right now. Bloom is not, in my opinion, a long-term competitive threat. I think that's another one of those brands that's growing rapidly and will sink. They're just not making the right... decisions in my opinion to set a brand up for the long term they're making a lot of short-term decisions in regard in my opinion right um as just somebody has seen the drink space and these brands evolve and fall off and come and go over the years so um Celsius is getting Celsius is like doing it the right way. They'll expand international. I think they'll have... two very successful brands for the next multiple decades right um and if you're in the drink space just always remember this guys You want to sell drinks that people come back to. That was a magical thing with monster is those drink, you know, energy centers drinks like this very Addictive products that people come back for time and time again, right? Something Starbucks obviously has nailed over the decades I mean, you know, you know, all their sugary frappuccinos and you know, the espresso shots and all that stuff It's very addictive products and so if you're gonna sell a drink related things or investing better be addictive related stuff. Otherwise, you know, it could be there today, gone tomorrow. Like people just don't have a lot of loyalty to, um, um, to non... addictive related products it's just the truth and that's why you know all these other brands you know come and go over time, right? But yeah, look at Monster. Look at Red Bull. Their success speaks for themselves, right? So that's number one of three. Number two of three is... RH restoration hardware. So this one, uh, furniture company, I am of the belief that the housing market's going to come back strong over the next several years. I'm of the belief that we're going to have a, um, you know, just a much strengthening housing environment for the next several years, right? And if we do have that play out, I think RH is going to be a huge beneficiary of this. And also simultaneously, RH is making some very important decisions in regards to how they build and format stores now that I don't think people are even factoring in. And this is a major change for how RH's margins, the type of margins they'll be able to command for the next several years. And it's something that...
[30:00] was able to benefit from Cabela's back in the day when Cabela's started building much smaller stores way before I was on YouTube. And they went to these smaller format stores. They were more like in the 60,000 or like 40,000 to 80,000 square foot ballpark from like before that. They were building like these 150,000, 200,000 square foot stores. It made them be able to fit the stores in easier places than before. It cut down on construction costs in a major way for Cabela's. And it ultimately made the company have much better margins over time and much better assortment rather than just massive everything, right? And so Cabela's was able to really benefit in a huge way from that. And I see RH is benefiting from this change as well. Cut down on construction costs, be able to fit more stores in more places and better margin profile for RH over time. OK, so that's RH. Number three of these three stocks that have the most upside, in my opinion, the next three years is SoFi Technology. So SoFi Technology is another one that built the brand for the long term. So far, we're up $28,000 in this stock in the public account. I think this one has a long way to run. It's a $14 stock right now. I started buying that when it was like $6 and some change. And I can't find a financial institution out there that I feel like is more well-positioned to become a financial giant, a banking giant. And when we talk about banking giants, we're talking about $100 billion or hundreds of billions of dollars of market cap over time. And that's where I can see SoFi going long term. needs to never over leverage the company, try to keep them as asset light as possible, have make bank in the bull markets and in the booming economies and just make it through the recessions. And it's going to be a beautiful, beautiful story. They'll just keep attracting more and more members. They got the model down, man. They track more and more members, sell those members more products, and they just... They're not going to go out of the ballpark. Anthony Nona's done a heck of a job running that company. Came over from Goldman Sachs a long time ago. Um... Very impressive. Okay. All right, guys. Appreciate you joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. Once again, if you're looking to get access to that 1,000X sale that's going to be coming on Halloween, that will be the pinned comment down there. You can click on that and put in your info and we'll send over the deal as soon as it drops on Halloween. Much love and have a great day.
