博通携手光通信双雄破局算力瓶颈 市场恐慌重估倒逼资金锁定硬壁垒

【The Motley Fool】市场大跌后的4只捡漏AI股 — 浑水摸鱼清源

浑水摸鱼清源

高利率引发的AI板块恐慌抛售加速淘汰高负债边缘云厂商,而掌控定制ASIC与攻克铜缆极限的光互联龙头正凭借不可替代的技术壁垒与现金流锁定核心溢价。

AI-assisted summary of 【The Motley Fool】市场大跌后的4只捡漏AI股 — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published:

Key ideas

  • 美股市场大幅调整使高负债中小云厂商承压,但拥有扎实基本面、充沛现金流和核心硬件壁垒的龙头企业迎来估值重定价与建仓窗口。 (0:00)
  • Nebius通过保留部分算力与电量提供短期溢价租赁,避开全额锁定低毛利长协的陷阱,营收预计从13亿美元高速跨越至2028财年的230亿美元以上。 (1:07)
  • Lumentum因AI集群遭遇“铜缆极限”而面临供不应求,核心产品缺口达70%,并获英伟达20亿美元采购承诺支持Blackwell平台。 (5:58)
  • 博通联手Meta、Google、OpenAI等定制ASIC芯片抗衡英伟达垄断,预期2028财年EPS达30美元,且AI单项业务营收有望突破230亿美元。 (11:25)
  • Coherent垂直整合磷化铟等底层化合物半导体制造,凭借全栈光器件技术解决1.6T高速互联功耗痛点,核心产能正持续成倍扩张。 (16:09)

Detailed notes

## Background 该视频由Bilibili创作者“浑水摸鱼清源”于2026年10月20日发布。视频简介指出,在近期美股市场剧烈调整、高负债中小云厂商遭遇重创的背景下,节目深度盘点了四只兼具硬核技术壁垒、充沛现金流或爆发成长潜力的优质AI标的(Nebius、Lumentum、Broadcom及Coherent),为投资者提供逆势建仓与甄别基本面的实用策略。

## TL;DR 视频聚焦于当前AI板块在宏观高利率与商业回报质疑声中的非理性杀跌,主张将资金从高负债企业转向攻克物理瓶颈与具备自造血能力的硬核基础设施龙头。节目首先剖析了欧洲顶尖工程团队打造的AI云基础设施新星Nebius,其通过保留算力现货租赁的定价策略实现了爆发式营收增幅与毛利改善;随后聚焦于解决算力集群“铜缆极限”的光互联先锋Lumentum,其核心AI产品供不应求、产能缺口高达70%,并获英伟达数十亿美元战略订单锁定;接着深度拆解了被称为“反向英伟达”的定制ASIC巨头Broadcom,凭借20倍左右的稳健前瞻估值与百亿美元级自由现金流承接各大科技大厂的自研芯片红利;最后分析了掌握磷化铟等化合物半导体全栈制造能力的Coherent,阐明其在数据中心1.6T演进与共封装光学浪潮中的不可替代性。

## Atmosphere & style 视频整体呈现出专业、务实且冷静的机构级研讨风格。主讲人开篇以自嘲投资组合回撤的轻松调侃切入,有效消解了市场大跌所带来的恐慌感与焦虑情绪。随着分析深入,对话迅速转向对半导体材料物理限制、算力能耗热管理及企业资产负债表的严密推演,语调笃定且逻辑清晰,在剧烈的市场波动中给观众带来一种穿透情绪迷雾、专注底层价值的确定感与掌控感。

## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=0s) 美股市场大幅调整使高负债中小云厂商承压,但拥有扎实基本面、充沛现金流和核心硬件壁垒的龙头企业迎来估值重定价与建仓窗口。 - [01:07](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=67s) Nebius通过保留部分算力与电量提供短期溢价租赁,避开全额锁定低毛利长协的陷阱,营收预计从13亿美元高速跨越至2028财年的230亿美元以上。 - [05:58](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=358s) Lumentum因AI集群遭遇“铜缆极限”而面临供不应求,核心产品缺口达70%,并获英伟达20亿美元采购承诺支持Blackwell平台。 - [11:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=685s) 博通联手Meta、Google、OpenAI等定制ASIC芯片抗衡英伟达垄断,预期2028财年EPS达30美元,且AI单项业务营收有望突破230亿美元。 - [16:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=969s) Coherent垂直整合磷化铟等底层化合物半导体制造,凭借全栈光器件技术解决1.6T高速互联功耗痛点,核心产能正持续成倍扩张。

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=0s) 市场非理性下挫导致AI板块无差别回调,但具备造血能力与硬科技护城河的企业提供了不对称的风险收益比。 - [01:07](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=67s) 相比CoreWeave等重负债同行,承袭Yandex技术底色成立的Nebius在资本结构和扩张弹性上更为稳健。 - [01:07](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=67s) Nebius通过三月期短期现货租赁捕捉GPU涨价红利,利用内生现金流支持算力基建,规避了高利率环境下的昂贵发债。 - [05:58](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=358s) 随着大模型参数爆发,铜缆在万卡集群中遭遇发热、功耗与延迟的物理极限,以光代铜成为算力互联的必然方向。 - [05:58](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=358s) Lumentum最新季度营收翻倍,光器件产能受限使约70%的AI客户需求无法得到即时满足,部分订单积压已排至2028年以后。 - [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=600s) 通过收购Cloud Light及联手Corning与Astera Labs,Lumentum将业务从外部互联渗透至主板级芯片对芯片光传输架构。 - [11:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=685s) 云厂商与模型独角兽为摆脱英伟达单一架构绑架并提升ROI,纷纷与博通联合定制ASIC,推动博通成为定制硅芯片中流砥柱。 - [11:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=685s) 博通展现出极高的盈利质量,不仅前瞻市盈率维持在20至21倍,且AI业务营收预计在两年内翻两番突破230亿美元。 - [16:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=969s) Coherent通过剥离边缘业务,将75%至80%的营收聚焦于数据中心与光通信,牢牢占据算力集群物理层核心生态位。 - [16:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=969s) 掌握从磷化铟和砷化镓基底晶圆到终端光模块的垂直一体化制造能力,构成了Coherent极高的客户粘性与工艺护城河。 - [16:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=969s) 在800G向1.6Tb及共封装光学(CPO)演进浪潮中,Coherent的自主磷化铟激光器成为解决集群散热瓶颈的不可替代方案。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=0s) Market Repricing and the Hunt for Quality AI Opportunities

The recent volatility across the stock market has triggered a widespread reassessment of valuations across the artificial intelligence sector. While some investors fear this marks the start of a broader downturn, the hosts emphasize that not all AI companies face the same underlying financial reality. The market has been especially punishing toward companies overly reliant on corporate debt, particularly as rising bond yields and elevated interest rates squeeze capital-intensive operators. However, tucked beneath the surface of the broad-selloff sits a collection of well-capitalized, cash-flow-producing AI businesses that are currently trading at substantial discounts.

Neil acknowledges the market pain with some self-deprecating humor, quipping about the state of his own investments: “I'm doing much better than my portfolio, I'll tell you that much.” Despite the severe pressure on high-growth tech over recent trading sessions, he steps forward with his first high-conviction pick: Nebius. While Neil admits that Nebius does not generate positive free cash flow at present, he insists it remains a top-tier operation that he has covered closely and personally owns in his portfolio.

- The broader market sell-off has disproportionately crushed unprofitable, debt-heavy AI companies sensitive to rising interest rates and bond yields. - Quality businesses with rock-solid balance sheets and essential infrastructure roles are being swept up in the general panic, creating attractive entry valuations.

---

[01:07](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=67s) Nebius: European Pedigree, Explosive Growth, and Smart Capacity Pricing

Nebius operates in what the market often terms the "neocloud" space, though management explicitly rejects that label, positioning the business instead as a specialized "AI cloud" or next-generation hyperscaler. The entire peer group—including rivals like CoreWeave—along with broader infrastructure providers such as Oracle, has come under heavy selling pressure. Investors are wrestling with deep anxieties regarding whether the massive capital expenditure on AI will generate sufficient return on investment, while punishing companies that must take on mountains of debt to fund their physical build-outs. Yet Neil points out that Nebius maintains a far healthier profile than peers like CoreWeave, which have taken on vastly higher debt loads.

Nebius carries an elite pedigree. Its core engineering and executive teams originally built and ran Yandex (frequently referred to as the "Google of Russia") before divesting and setting up Nebius as an independent entity headquartered in Amsterdam. This gives the company an entrenched foothold across Europe, complemented by rapid expansions in the United States, the Middle East, and rumored development across Asia. While a headline valuation approaching $50 billion looks steep against its trailing numbers, the revenue trajectory is extraordinarily steep: climbing from $1.3 billion over the trailing twelve months to an estimated $3.3 billion by the end of the current fiscal year, approaching $12.2 billion in the next fiscal year, and surpassing $23 billion by fiscal 2028. Management has even hinted in recent executive interviews that the company could eventually reach $100 billion in annual revenue around 2030.

Crucially, Nebius is outmaneuvering its competition on contract pricing. Instead of locking up 100% of its data center power and GPU supply in low-margin, multi-year fixed contracts through 2027, Nebius has intentionally held back capacity. Megawatt and GPU compute prices continue to climb, allowing Nebius to rent out short-term, three-month blocks at premium rates. This opportunistic pricing model is driving immediate margin expansion and self-funding capacity expansion without forcing the company to issue expensive debt or dilute equity in an unfriendly rate environment. As Neil summarizes: “Nebius, in my opinion, is still best in class at what they do.”

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Nebius Capacity and Margin Optimization accDescr: Flowchart contrasting competitor long-term low-margin lock-in against Nebius flexible premium pricing strategy.

subgraph Competitors ["Standard NeoCloud Model"] C1["Long-Term Take-or-Pay Contracts"] --> C2["100% Capacity Locked Through 2027"] C2 --> C3["Fixed Low Margins + Heavy Debt to Build"] end

subgraph NebiusModel ["Nebius Hybrid Strategy"] N1["Anchor Tier: Base Contracts (Meta, Microsoft)"] --> N2["Secures Base Capital & High Utilization"] N3["Reserved Capacity: Unallocated Megawatts"] --> N4["Short-Term (3-Month) Spot Leases"] N4 --> N5["Premium Pricing & Surging Gross Margins"] N2 & N5 --> N6["Internal Cash Flow Funds Expansion (Less Debt)"] end ```

- **Trailing 12-Month Revenue:** $1.3 billion. - **FY Year-End Target:** Over $3.3 billion. - **Next Fiscal Year Projection:** Approximately $12.2 billion. - **Fiscal 2028 Estimate:** In excess of $23 billion. - **Long-term Management Target:** Up to $100 billion in revenue by roughly 2030. - **Strategic Anchor Clients:** Tier-1 tech giants including Microsoft and Meta.

---

[05:58](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=358s) Overcoming the "Copper Wall": Lumentum and the Optical Interconnect Revolution

Turning to a business that directly solves one of AI's hardest physical engineering bottlenecks, the discussion shifts to Lumentum Holdings. As frontier AI models scale to trillions of parameters, massive clusters containing tens of thousands of GPUs must pass unfathomable quantities of data back and forth. For decades, compute clusters relied on traditional copper wiring to move electrical signals between processors. However, copper has run directly into a physical barrier known across the semiconductor industry as the "copper wall." Forcing high-frequency data across copper cables generates punishing electrical resistance, throwing off massive amounts of heat, dragging down cluster latency, and burning unacceptable levels of electrical power.

The only viable industry solution is the wholesale transition from copper cables to optical interconnects. Optical systems use specialized transceivers and photonics laser chips to convert electrical signals into pulses of light, routing that data at lightning speed through fiber-optic lines. Moving data via light allows AI hyperscale clusters to scale compute capacity dramatically while simultaneously cutting power draw and mitigating thermal stress.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Copper Wall vs Optical Interconnect accDescr: Diagram illustrating the failure of traditional copper wiring under AI workloads versus the speed and efficiency of optical interconnects.

subgraph Legacy ["The Copper Wall Bottleneck"] A["Electrical Signal"] --> B["Traditional Copper Cabling"] B --> C["High Electrical Resistance"] C --> D["Severe Heat, High Power, Thermal Throttling"] end

subgraph Optical ["Lumentum Optical Interconnect"] E["Electrical Data"] --> F["Photonic Laser Chips & Transceivers"] F --> G["Light Pulses in Fiber Optic Cables"] G --> H["Speed-of-Light Data Transfer, Low Power & Cool Run"] end ```

Lumentum sits at the core of this transformation as a B2B hardware and laser specialist. While the company maintains an industrial technology wing that sells 3D sensing components and high-precision lasers used to cut sheet metal or weld electric vehicle batteries, its cloud and networking unit is driving explosive growth. The company supplies three critical tiers of customers: hyperscalers building AI mega-clusters (Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon), traditional telecommunication giants, and original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

The demand for Lumentum’s components is vastly outstripping industry supply. In its most recent fourth-quarter results, net revenue jumped over 100% year-over-year. In a candid interview with Bloomberg Television, CEO Michael Hurlston highlighted the staggering scale of the supply deficit, noting that Lumentum is currently unable to fulfill roughly 70% of customer demand for its core AI product lines. Furthermore, around 30% of its order backlog for alternative optical components is committed all the way through 2028. Because standing up and qualifying a new semiconductor laser fabrication facility requires years of capital investment and technical validation, Lumentum enjoys an exceptional competitive moat against fast-following rivals. Highlighting its critical standing in hardware roadmaps, Nvidia has backed Lumentum with a $2 billion strategic purchase commitment to support its next-generation platform rollouts.

- Traditional copper cabling has hit physical limits due to electrical resistance, thermal throttling, and unsustainable energy consumption under trillion-parameter workloads. - Lumentum's photonics chips convert server electrical signals into light beams, enabling low-power, high-speed data transfer across optical fiber. - **Q4 Net Revenue Growth:** Surged over 100% year-over-year. - **Supply Deficit:** CEO Michael Hurlston stated Lumentum cannot meet roughly 70% of customer demand for its primary AI hardware lines. - **Backlog Horizon:** Approximately 30% of alternative component order backlogs are locked down through 2028. - **Nvidia Partnership:** Secured a $2 billion strategic purchase commitment from Nvidia to guarantee optical component supply.

[10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=600s) Lumentum 攻克芯片级光互联与 Blackwell 供应链协同

Lumentum 不仅在英伟达 Blackwell 芯片出货周期中锁定了价值高达 20 亿美元的关键组件采购承诺,更在战略层面多维加固自身的长期市场护城河。公司此前成功收购了 Cloud Light,这一并购举措显著增强并加速了其在超高速光收发器先进封装领域的工艺能力。在近期的 OCP Global Summit(全球开放计算项目峰会)上,Lumentum 携手康宁(Corning)与 Astera Labs 等行业先锋,实地展示了其具有开创意义的板载光学技术方案。该方案致力于利用波导与光纤通路全面替代传统主板上的铜走线,意味着 Lumentum 的潜在市场空间(TAM)已成功延伸至芯片到芯片(chip-to-chip)的内部微架构互联领域。

虽然随着美股整体 AI 概念股的回调,Lumentum 的股价出现了一定程度的休整,且因底层制造业务的资本机制导致净利润增速存在周期性波动,但其坚实的基本面依然格外引人注目。目前公司订单积压严重,产能缺口高达 70%,根本无法满足客户如潮水般的订单。正如主讲人总结道:“And so this essentially is aiming to replace the standard motherboard copper traces with light wave conduits. What this means is that Lumentum is looking to expand its addressable market to the internal chip-to-chip architecture.” 伴随英伟达的深度注资与背书,Lumentum 在整个 AI 算力堆叠的产业链条中卡住了极具防御性的身位。

- **并购整合优势**:收购 Cloud Light 极大补强了其高速收发器封装技术,形成端到端的光互联交付能力。 - **生态巨头联合**:与 Corning、Astera Labs 建立紧密联盟,共同推进服务器内部“以光代铜”的架构颠覆。 - **产业背书**:获得英伟达在资本与 Blackwell 供应链层面的双重扶持,确立核心供应商地位。

---

[11:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=685s) 定制芯片巨头 Broadcom:“反向英伟达”的崛起逻辑与估值空间

作为第二位主讲人带来的标的,博通(Broadcom)在半导体行业常被赋予“反向英伟达”(anti-NVIDIA)的称号。这种定位源于各大科技巨头虽然是英伟达的大客户,但都在极力降低对单一代际 GPU 架构的重度依赖,以防止议价权被单一供应商全面侵蚀。包括 Anthropic、OpenAI、Meta 以及手握 TPU 架构的谷歌,均纷纷选择与博通深度合作,联合设计(co-design)定制化 ASIC 芯片。这种专属硅片架构不仅能精准适配大厂内部的特定工作负载、大幅提高算力投资回报率(ROI),更打破了高溢价标准算力卡的垄断格局。尽管主讲人明确强调英伟达未来多年仍将稳坐行业头把交椅,但博通所吃下的定制化外溢红利规模极为惊人。

从财务基本面与盈利指引来看,博通的管理层已向市场给出了极具穿透力的远景目标:预计到 2028 财年,公司每股收益(EPS)将达到 30 美元;目前其股价维持在 340 美元左右,基于 2028 年的盈利目标,现行估值倍数依然具备充足的安全边际。更为亮眼的是其业务拆分数据,仅 AI 业务板块的营收预计就将在明年翻倍至 115 亿美元,后年将再度翻倍突破 230 亿美元大关。与尚未盈利的初创企业截然不同,博通每年能稳健斩获数百亿美元的充沛自由现金流。即便市场担忧其存在循环融资或过度依赖 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这类初创客户商业化不及预期的系统性风险,但拥有 Meta 和 Google 等超大规模现金奶牛客户托底,博通的发展确定性依旧极高。主讲人指出:“In this market, I view this as a favorable risk reward pick,” 目前博通的前瞻市盈率(Forward P/E)仅在 20 至 21 倍左右,属于性价比极其突出的高质量蓝筹资产。

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Broadcom Custom ASIC Moat accDescr: Hyperscalers partner with Broadcom to co-design custom ASICs and diversify away from Nvidia dependence.

subgraph Hyperscalers ["云计算巨头与大模型梯队"] A["Meta"] B["Google (TPU)"] C["OpenAI / Anthropic"] end

subgraph Solution ["核心交付与壁垒"] D["Broadcom 定制化 ASIC 协力设计平台"] E["软硬件协同网络与高毛利 IP 矩阵"] end

subgraph Objectives ["战略诉求与财务产出"] F["降低对单一 GPU 依赖 / 提升内部 ROI"] G["2028 财年预期 EPS 达 $30 / 充沛自由现金流"] end

A --> D B --> D C --> D D --> E E --> F E --> G ```

- **财务预期与规模**:2028 财年预期 EPS 达 30 美元;AI 单项业务营收预计明年达 115 亿美元,后年突破 230 亿美元。 - **估值水平**:目前前瞻市盈率约为 20 至 21 倍,相较于高成长性与百亿美元级自由现金流,估值严重被低估。 - **客户与生态风险对冲**:即使大模型独角兽商业化估值面临波动,Meta、Google 等科技巨头的内生定制需求已足够保证博通的业绩履约。

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[16:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=969s) 光器件中流砥柱 Coherent:垂直整合破局 1.6T 物理极限

压轴出场的标的为光器件与先进工程材料龙头 Coherent。在横跨半导体、物理网络基础设施、算力集群、基础模型至应用层的 AI 整体价值链中,Coherent 稳居最为核心的物理互联通信层。现代 AI 数据中心集群扩展面临的最严峻物理瓶颈是海量 GPU 之间高吞吐、低延迟的“数据搬运”(data movement)。如果成千上万枚芯片之间无法以极高速度流动数据,昂贵的算力阵列就会陷入严重的空转内耗,而 Coherent 正是负责将计算电信号无损转化为超低延迟光信号的幕后底座。

与其他单一组件厂不同,Coherent 的核心壁垒在于掌控从零开始的“全物理技术栈”垂直整合能力:公司自建专业晶圆厂,在实验室中直接培育磷化铟(Indium Phosphide, InP)和砷化镓(Gallium Arsenide, GaAs)等化合物半导体工程基板晶圆,并将其加工成激光引擎,最终组装成驱动超大数据中心的高速光收发器。由于其组件需要与下游客户系统进行数月乃至数年的定制测试与认证,构筑了粘性极高、可预测的重复采购机制。近期 Coherent 坚决剥离非核心资产,全力向数据中心与通信业务倾斜,目前该业务已占公司总营收的 75% 至 80%(剩余部分为工业精密激光与动力电池等业务),2026 财年整体营收基础已达 70 亿美元左右。

面对 AI 集群跳脱铜缆、走向共封装光学(Co-Packaged Optics, CPO)与近封装光学(Near-Packaged Optics, NPO)的代际拐点,Coherent 凭借 Photon Link 模块化平台走在行业最前沿。目前制约其数据中心业务营收放量的瓶颈并非后段组装或检测,而是其自主磷化铟激光器的原生产能。过去一年其产能已同比飙升 80%,并计划在未来数月内实现翻倍,随后继续翻倍扩产。在行业从 800G 向 1.6Tb 光网络演进的关键节点,常规模块因功耗过高随时面临集群过热宕机风险,必须依赖 Coherent 的磷化铟调制器进行功耗抑制。主讲人着重强调了其先发布局优势:“Management has said that they plan to start recognizing meaningful revenue from this business within the next quarters that would place them broadly ahead of the industry curve.”

- **业务结构聚焦**:数据中心与通信业务占比达 75%-80%,构筑在 70 亿美元的年营收体量之上,抗信用紧缩与行业波动风险能力极强。 - **底层材料自主可控**:深度自主掌控磷化铟(InP)与砷化镓(GaAs)晶圆制造,构建上游激光芯片至终端光模块的端到端垂直一体化壁垒。 - **解决 1.6T 功耗痛点**:随着网络带宽升级至 1.6Tb,其磷化铟调制器技术成为化解算力集群散热过载不可替代的物理级解法。

## Notable quotes > [01:07](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn?t=67s) Nebius, in my opinion, is still best in class at what they do. — Neil

## Mentioned The Motley Fool, Nebius, Lumentum Holdings, Broadcom, Coherent, CoreWeave, Oracle, Yandex, Nvidia, Blackwell, Cloud Light, Corning, Astera Labs, OCP Global Summit, OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Google, TPU, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Michael Hurlston, Neil, Photon Link

## Video description 【The Motley Fool】 市场大跌后的4只捡漏AI股 4 AI Stocks to Buy After the Market Sell-Off!

大家好,近期美股市场经历了一轮剧烈调整,部分高负债、重度依赖外部融资的中小云厂商股价遭遇重创,市场对AI板块的估值产生了恐慌性重定价。然而,危机往往是优秀资产的试金石。并非所有AI标的都面临相同的财务风险,那些拥有扎实基本面、充沛现金流和不可替代技术壁垒的企业,反而在大跌后迎来了黄金建仓期。今天我带大家深度盘点四只在市场回调中极具投资价值的优质AI股票。

市场波动与优质AI资产的甄别 在当前宏观利率维持高位、市场对AI投资回报率产生质疑的背景下,资金正在从风险较高、自由现金流尚未转正的边缘厂商撤离。但这并不意味着AI叙事的终结。相反,那些具备独特技术护城河、能够直接解决AI物理瓶颈以及拥有强大定制化芯片设计能力的龙头企业,正在通过亮眼的财务数据证明自身的长期成长性。

新锐AI云端巨头Nebius的狂飙突进 作为首个探讨对象,Nebius虽然在短期内尚未实现自由现金流转正,但其作为新一代AI云与高性能计算基础设施提供商,展现出了惊人的成长弹性。公司管理层背景深厚,承袭自欧洲顶尖科技团队,总部位于阿姆斯特丹,并在美国、欧洲及中东建立庞大基建网络。财务数据上,其营收正从上一财年的13亿美元爆发式增长至今年底的超33亿美元,预计下一财年将跃升至122亿美元,并在2028财年突破230亿美元,甚至管理层透露未来有望冲击1000亿美元年营收。面对不断上涨的GPU与算力租赁价格,Nebius灵活调整合同策略,通过提供短期高端算力溢价租赁,显著改善了毛利率与现金回笼能力,成功避开了过度依赖低价长协合同的陷阱。

破解“铜缆极限”的光通信先锋Lumentum 随着AI集群规模扩展至成千上万枚高端GPU,传统的铜缆传输因发热严重、带宽受限而遭遇物理瓶颈,行业正式迈向全光网络互联时代。Lumentum作为光通信与激光芯片领域的B2B核心制造商,其核心业务迎来井喷。其最新季度净营收同比飙升超过100%,CEO迈克尔·赫斯特坦言,目前公司根本无法满足约70%的核心AI产品客户需求,订单积压已排至2029年初。此外,英伟达在Blackwell芯片出货中向Lumentum提供了高达20亿美元的战略采购承诺,通过收购Cloud Light并联合行业巨头推进光连接创新,Lumentum已构筑起极其稳固的护城河。

定制芯片巨头Broadcom的逆势爆发 在算力硬件领域,Broadcom常被视为抗衡英伟达垄断的“反向巨头”。包括OpenAI、Anthropic、Meta及谷歌TPU在内的众多科技巨头纷纷选择与Broadcom联合开发定制化ASIC芯片,以摆脱对单一架构的过度依赖并提升内部算力效率。从财务指标来看,Broadcom预计到2028财年每股收益(EPS)将达到30美元。更为惊人的是,其AI单项业务营收预计将在明年翻倍至115亿美元,随后在后年再度翻倍突破230亿美元。目前其前瞻市盈率维持在20至21倍左右,在兼顾数十亿美元自由现金流与极高盈利质量的同时,展现出极具吸引力的风险回报比。

高端光器件龙头Coherent的底层支撑 最后一家重点关注的是Coherent。作为掌控底层化合物半导体材料(如磷化铟、碳化硅、砷化镓)及高性能光收发器的行业翘楚,其数据中心与通信业务贡献了高达75%至80%的营收。当前其营收规模已达70亿美元。面对1.6太比特(1.6Tb)超高速光模块的演进浪潮,Coherent的磷化铟激光器产量在过去一年内激增80%,并计划在未来几个月内将内部产能再度翻倍。凭借在共封装光学(CPO)领域的先发优势,Coherent正稳步锁定下一代AI数据中心的核心利润。

实操建议与避险策略 甄别资本结构,避开高负债弱现金流标的:在利率维持高位期间,严控中小云厂商仓位,将资金集中于Broadcom和Coherent等现金流强劲、具备自造血能力的行业中流砥柱。 逢低分批吸纳AI基建龙头:利用市场非理性恐慌带来的回调窗口,对Lumentum与Nebius等处于高成长爆发期的标的采取分档建仓策略。 锚定长期价值与技术壁垒:重点关注攻克“铜缆瓶颈”与定制化芯片赛道的硬核科技企业,切忌盲目追逐纯概念炒作的短线标的。

简洁时间轴 [00:00] 市场大跌与AI股票分化 [01:07] 深度解析Nebius的成长弹性 [05:58] 破解光通信瓶颈的Lumentum [11:25] 定制芯片巨头Broadcom投资价值 [16:09] 聚焦光器件龙头的Coherent布局

[Source](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15kJo6zEZn)

中文简报

博通携手光通信双雄破局算力瓶颈 市场恐慌重估倒逼资金锁定硬壁垒 高利率引发的AI板块恐慌抛售加速淘汰高负债边缘云厂商,而掌控定制ASIC与攻克铜缆极限的光互联龙头正凭借不可替代的技术壁垒与现金流锁定核心溢价。 视频聚焦于当前AI板块在宏观高利率与商业回报质疑声中的非理性杀跌,主张将资金从高负债企业转向攻克物理瓶颈与具备自造血能力的硬核基础设施龙头。节目首先剖析了欧洲顶尖工程团队打造的AI云基础设施新星Nebius,其通过保留算力现货租赁的定价策略实现了爆发式营收增幅与毛利改善;随后聚焦于解决算力集群“铜缆极限”的光互联先锋Lumentum,其核心AI产品供不应求、产能缺口高达70%,并获英伟达数十亿美元战略订单锁定;接着深度拆解了被称为“反向英伟达”的定制ASIC巨头Broadcom,凭借20倍左右的稳健前瞻估值与百亿美元级自由现金流承接各大科技大厂的自研芯片红利;最后分析了掌握磷化铟等化合物半导体全栈制造能力的Coherent,阐明其在数据中心1.6T演进与共封装光学浪潮中的不可替代性。 美股市场大幅调整使高负债中小云厂商承压,但拥有扎实基本面、充沛现金流和核心硬件壁垒的龙头企业迎来估值重定价与建仓窗口。 (0:00) Nebius通过保留部分算力与电量提供短期溢价租赁,避开全额锁定低毛利长协的陷阱,营收预计从13亿美元高速跨越至2028财年的230亿美元以上。 (1:07) Lumentum因AI集群遭遇“铜缆极限”而面临供不应求,核心产品缺口达70%,并获英伟达20亿美元采购承诺支持Blackwell平台。 (5:58) 博通联手Meta、Google、OpenAI等定制ASIC芯片抗衡英伟达垄断,预期2028财年EPS达30美元,且AI单项业务营收有望突破230亿美元。 (11:25) Coherent垂直整合磷化铟等底层化合物半导体制造,凭借全栈光器件技术解决1.6T高速互联功耗痛点,核心产能正持续成倍扩张。 (16:09)

Reading summary

Motley Fool 节目主讲人认为,近期美股 AI 板块的剧烈回调虽对高负债且缺乏盈利支撑的企业造成估值重创,但也为具备底层物理壁垒、强劲订单积压或充沛现金流的基建供应商提供了具备安全边际的买入窗口。 Nebius以弹性定价平衡算力扩张与债务 (1:07) 源自俄罗斯 Yandex 核心团队独立分拆的 Nebius,在被称为“新云”(neocloud)的专门化 AI 云领域展现了独特的资本运作路径。面对 CoreWeave 等同行因举债扩张面临的高利率与投资回报率压力,主讲人 Neil 指出 Nebius 的负债结构显著更为健康。尽管当前尚未实现正向自由现金流,但其营收呈现陡峭增长曲线:TTM 营收为 1.3 亿美元(注:原文13亿美元/1.3 billion),预计本财年末突破 33 亿美元,下一财年达 122 亿美元,2028 财年预计超 230 亿美元,管理层远期指引更剑指 2030 年千亿美元营收规模。在商业策略上,Nebius 并未将 100% 的数据中心电能和 GPU 算力锁入低毛利的多年期固定协议,而是在绑定微软、Meta 等锚定大客户的同时,战略性保留未分配容量用于 3 个月短期现货租赁。随着算力单价持续上升,该溢价模式不仅大幅拉高毛利率,更通过内生造血支持设施扩建,规避了在加息环境下发行高息债或稀释股权的风险。 Lumentum攻克以光代铜与供应链卡位 (5:58) 随着万亿参数大模型对超大规模 GPU 集群的需求飙升,传统铜缆在电阻、发热和能耗上撞上了物理层面的“铜墙(copper wall)”。Lumentum 通过光电子激光芯片与收发器实现光电信号转换,以光纤传输破解了高频数据交互的功耗与热节流瓶颈。CEO Michael Hurlston 透露,公司核心 AI 产品线面临严重的供应缺口,目前无法满足约 70% 的客户需求,且约 30% 的备选光学组件订单积压已排产至 2028 年,第四季度净营收同比翻倍。除获得英伟达价值 20 亿美元的 Blackwell 供应链采购承诺外,Lumentum 还通过收购 Cloud Light 补齐了高速收发器封装能力。在近期 OCP 全球峰会上,公司联合康宁与 Astera Labs 展出板载光学方案,将“以光代铜”推进至主板芯片到芯片(chip-to-chip)的微架构互联领域。主讲人强调,激光芯片晶圆制造极高的资本投入与长达数年的客户验证周期,赋予了其深厚的行业护城河。 博通借定制ASIC承接巨头去中心化需求 (11:25) 被称为“反向英伟达”的博通,成为云计算巨头去中心化趋势的主要受益者。主讲人指出,尽管英伟达在未来数年仍将主导通用 GPU 市场,但 Meta、谷歌(TPU 架构)、OpenAI 及 Anthropic 等科技巨头为了打破单一供应链垄断并提高算力资本回报率,正大规模联合博通定制设计专有 ASIC 芯片。博通依靠底层网络软硬件协同及高价值 IP 矩阵,有效承接了定制化自研芯片的外溢红利。在财务基本面上,博通目前每年稳定产出数百亿美元自由现金流,管理层给出的远期目标指引预计 2028 财年每股收益(EPS)将达 30 美元;其 AI 单项业务营收预计明年翻倍至 115 亿美元,后年突破 230 亿美元。即便市场担忧初创大模型企业的商业化变现风险,但主讲人认为,Meta 和谷歌等拥有充沛现金流的核心客户托底,加之仅 20 至 21 倍的前瞻市盈率,使其成为风险收益比极佳的高确定性资产。 Coherent垂直整合布局1.6T光互联 (16:09) 在成千上万枚 GPU 构成的计算阵列中,高吞吐、极低延迟的数据移动直接决定了算力能否满载运行,Coherent 因而稳居物理通信互联的枢纽地位。与其他组装厂不同,Coherent 具备涵盖磷化铟(InP)与砷化镓(GaAs)工程基板晶圆自研培育、激光引擎加工到整机高速光收发器制造的“全物理技术栈”垂直整合能力。在剥离非核心资产后,其数据中心与通信业务占比已升至 75% 至 80%,构筑在 2026 财年约 70 亿美元的年营收基石上。面对光互联向 1.6Tb 带宽升级引发的散热失控风险,Coherent 凭借磷化铟调制器技术提供了关键散热与功耗抑制方案。主讲人指出,目前制约其出货放量的主要瓶颈在于上游磷化铟激光器的原生产能;在过去一年产能激增 80% 的基础上,公司正持续成倍扩充产线,其 Photon Link 模块化平台预计在未来数个季度内开始确认可观营收,在向共封装光学(CPO)跨越的节点保持先发优势。 主讲人总结指出,此轮市场回调挤出了依赖债务融资的投机估值,但并未减弱数据中心对底层光互联与定制芯片的物理刚需。对于投资者而言,核心不确定性仍在于终端大模型商业化投资回报率的兑现节奏,但具备自研晶圆材料制造、高额订单能见度及百亿美元自由现金流的硬件基建标的展现出更高的抗风险能力。

精炼阅读摘要

主讲人指出,近期美股市场回调加速了人工智能板块的分化,高负债且未盈利的企业承压明显,而拥有关键物理基础设施壁垒、充沛现金流或灵活定价能力的企业则出现估值错配与捡漏机会。节目重点评估了Nebius、Lumentum、Broadcom与Coherent四家公司在算力云、光互联硬件及定制化ASIC领域的业务护城河。 Nebius的灵活产能定价与高增长预期 (1:07) 主讲人Neil认为,在算力云(AI Cloud)领域,Nebius的财务健康度显著优于CoreWeave等高负债同行。该公司核心团队源自Yandex,总部设在阿姆斯特丹,业务已拓展至欧美与中东市场。尽管目前尚未实现正向自由现金流,但其营收呈现陡峭增长:过去十二个月营收为13亿美元,财年底预计突破33亿美元,下一财年预计接近122亿美元,并在2028财年超过230亿美元,管理层甚至给出了2030年左右达到1000亿美元年营收的长期预期。 在商业模式上,Nebius并未将全部数据中心电力与GPU算力锁定在低毛利的多年固定合约中,而是保留了未分配容量用于提供三个月周期的短期现货租赁。随着算力与电力价格持续上涨,这种动态定价模式推动了毛利率扩张,使其能够依靠内部业务现金流支撑产能扩建,从而避免在不利的利率环境中过度举债或稀释股权。 Lumentum突破铜墙瓶颈与光互联布局 (5:58) 随着万亿参数大模型推高算力集群规模,传统铜缆连接在数据传输中遭遇了严重的电阻、高发热与延迟瓶颈,即半导体行业所谓的“铜墙”。Lumentum通过光子激光芯片和光收发器,将电信号转换为光脉冲进行高速光纤传输,成为化解集群散热和功耗痛点的关键供应商。第四季度其净营收同比激增超100%,首席执行官Michael Hurlston透露,目前公司核心AI产品线无法满足约70%的客户需求,且约30%的替代光器件订单积压已排期至2028年。 在战略协同层面,英伟达向Lumentum提供了20亿美元的采购承诺以保障其Blackwell平台供应链。此外,Lumentum通过收购Cloud Light增强了高速光收发器的封装能力,并在OCP全球峰会上联合康宁与Astera Labs展示了板载光学方案,计划以光波导全面替代主板铜走线,将潜在市场延伸至芯片级微架构互联领域。 博通定制ASIC生态与充沛现金流防护 (11:25) 博通在半导体行业中被称为“反向英伟达”,其核心逻辑在于大型科技企业为降低对单一标准GPU的过度依赖、提升算力投资回报率,纷纷寻求与博通合作联合设计专属定制ASIC芯片。目前,谷歌(TPU)、Meta、OpenAI以及Anthropic均已成为其深度合作伙伴。尽管英伟达在标准算力市场仍占主导地位,但博通成功截留了巨头自研芯片外溢的庞大市场红利。 财务层面,博通管理层预计到2028财年每股收益(EPS)将达到30美元,对应当前约340美元的股价,前瞻市盈率约为20至21倍。其AI业务营收预计明年将翻倍至115亿美元,后年进一步突破230亿美元。主讲人指出,相比高风险初创标的,博通每年拥有数百亿美元的稳健自由现金流,且有Meta和谷歌等高现金储备客户作为基础盘托底,业绩兑现确定性较高。 Coherent垂直整合与1.6T光通信演进 (16:09) Coherent在算力集群中承担极低延迟光通信底座角色,其数据中心与通信业务目前占整体营收的75%至80%,构筑于2026财年约70亿美元的营收基石之上。该公司的核心壁垒在于掌控化合物半导体的全栈垂直整合:自建晶圆厂培育磷化铟(InP)和砷化镓(GaAs)基板,自主制造激光引擎并封装为高速光收发模块。由于下游客户验证周期长达数月至数年,客户转换成本极高。 随着数据中心网络向1.6Tb代际跃迁,算力集群面临更高的功耗过热风险,必须依赖磷化铟调制器实现散热与能耗抑制。目前限制Coherent业务放量的关键在于其自有磷化铟激光器产能。过去一年其产能已同比提升80%,并计划在未来数月内实现翻倍。管理层预计未来数个季度内相关业务将开始产生显著营收,提前确立在共封装光学(CPO)等下一代物理网络架构中的领先地位。 虽然四家标的在算力基础设施与芯片架构中卡位关键环节,但节目讨论也揭示了潜在不确定性:Nebius目前仍未实现自由现金流转正,且长期收入指引高度依赖算力需求的可持续性;Lumentum与Coherent受制于前端半导体制造扩产周期与高资本开支;博通则需面对初创客户商业化不及预期及AI资本开支周期性波动的宏观风险。

Source quotes

[1:07] Neil: Nebius, in my opinion, is still best in class at what they do.

Original transcript

[0:00] Well, we're in a time where it seems like the market is repricing a lot of AI stocks. And while that may or may not be a longer term trend, it's certainly the case that not all AI stocks are created equal. In a previous video, we talked about the ways in which the market is repricing some of the businesses that are most reliant on corporate debt that are under pressure as bond yields and interest rates are rising but there is still a treasure trove of... well capitalized, profitable, cash flow producing, AI businesses. that might actually be trading a little bit more of a discount right now after the recent route in the market. So Neil and I are going to be talking about four AI stocks that we think are quality buys. in this era. *Mario's Death* Neil, good to see you. How are you doing today? I'm doing much better than my portfolio, I'll tell you that much. Although that's not that difficult, I guess, after the last couple of days in the stock market. But Yeah, we'll talk about some good businesses, although my first pick does not generate any free cash flow as of right now. But I still view this as a As a quality business, it's a name I've been covering for quite a while. I own it. And that's Nebus. So I know. I know what people say. Oh, High risk. Right? Because it's It's in the NeoCloud space, although NABUs themselves do not view the company as a NeoCloud company, they view it as a AI cloud or next-gen hyperscaler. But okay, everybody can come out with their own definition. But the Nebius... alongside all the other new clouds out there have been hit quite a lot. We've talked about it yesterday, actually, CoreWeave Oracle. They've been dragging down actually the space. So of course, Nebius being in the exact same industry gets dragged down as well because of the fears of We're still the same fears of maybe overspending in AI, what's the return on investment? And second of all, all of these companies that still need to grow quite a lot but already take on quite a lot of that although core with way more than debuts but they're definitely not profitable. as of right now. And so that's why you're seeing these companies take a hit. Nebus, in my opinion, is... still best in class at what they do. For those that don't know, Nebius, the same engineering team, management team, was previously in charge of Yandex, which was the so-called Google of Russia, that to divest. And they created that company a couple of years ago, headquarters in Amsterdam. So they have a huge presence in Europe, which is in my opinion, is a very, very big advantage to them, but they also have a big advantage a big exposure in the United States, in the Middle East. And I think there are some rumors that they're going to grow even more in Asia. But Nevis, as of right now, on paper, it seems like it's super expensive. Why is this company worth close to $50 billion, barely generating any revenue as of right now? which is true. They're going to go from last 12 months revenue, $1.3 billion, to over $3.3 billion the end of this fiscal year, to then close to $12.2 billion, next fiscal year, although I do think that number can be much bigger, and then over 23 billion dollars in fiscal 28. So it's definitely a company that is still expected to grow super quickly. Now that's great. But what about profitability? Because again the build out costs a lot of money Well, the thing that we know right now in the market is that the price of GPUs, the price of megawatts keeps going up. And Nebus has done something very smart, which is something that a lot of their competitors have not done. is that they've taken, yes, some big contracts with Microsoft, with Meta. Those are usually very low margin contracts, but this allows them to move much quicker. and raise capital at a, let's say, cheaper price. This also means that they are ready for what is coming right now. they can rent out megawatts at a higher price. which also means that they don't have to be sold out. A lot of companies that say were sold out for 27, Nebu said we could have been sold out for 27 but we decided not to because we know that we can price at a premium. Prices have been increasing if certain companies want to have only three months of allocation, We'll charge them a little bit more. which means that our margin profile suddenly improves quite a lot. which of course helps the company built faster and doesn't need to raise more capital, especially not in this rate environment. So We're looking here at the company that, in my opinion, is best in class, continues to grow quite quickly. You'll see the margin profile of the company actually improve. Over time, the fears here across the board are a bit overblown, but I understand. I understand the fears as of right now, because we're talking about... super big numbers, high growth rates, for companies that are [5:00] are just, let's say, just starting off. But I do want to put Nebis here back back on the list because we are looking at a company that could, and that's according to management, not myself, could potentially generate 100 billion dollars in revenue in the not too distant future. I'm not saying this, although I think it's going to happen. It is part of the executive team that have said it, I think, recently in an interview. And look, if we're going to go and generate maybe in 2030 $100 billion in revenue, I think that's a big, big jump up. Of course, here execution is key and a lot of things can happen between now and 2030. But that's with every other company out there. Well, it's a good balance to some of the other stocks we're going to be talking about today in terms of risk profile. You know, for my first stock, I really want to talk about a trend that we've been seeing. So the stock I'm going to talk about is Momentum Holdings. But first, I think you have to understand that. As we're looking at the AI build out, there are many bottlenecks. One of them is something that the industry has essentially coined the term for called the copper wall. So for decades, data inside clusters, compute clusters, was moved between microprocessors using traditional copper wires. Now, we're seeing AI model sizes scale into trillions of parameters. time. And when you push that volume of information through standard copper cabling, that electrical resistance generates huge amounts of heat. It slows down processing speeds. It also consumes prohibitive amounts of power. Essentially, copper is physically incapable of keeping pace with the internal data demands of the cutting edge silicon that's required in today's AI race. The reason solutions have emerged and the solution has been primarily the total transition to optical interconnects. These are systems that convert electrical signals into light, and then they route that data via fiber optic transceivers at lightning speeds. Now, moving data at the speed of light, that allows the data centers to scale up their computing power, but it also means that they can lower their power consumption and thermal strength. So this is a mandatory requirement for the AI architecture build out, and this is where like Lumentum comes into play so Lumentum's business model they're a b2b industrial hardware manufacturer they design build and sell photonics specialized laser chips The lasers and optical transceivers that turn electrical data from computer servers into beams of light, that's the core of Lumentum's business, allowing that data to travel through fiber optic cables at these high speeds. They also have an industrial tech part to their business, and that's where they have applications like 3D sensing chips, high precision industrial lasers for cutting and welding sheet metal or manufacturing electric vehicle batteries. Cloud and networking business, that's the primary driver of Lumentum's growth right now. And Lumentum essentially sits at the middle of the kind of global tech supply chain. They have their customers essentially fall into three key areas. Number one is the cloud hyperscalers. So of course, the tech giants that are building the AI data centers like Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, they need Lumentum's optical systems to connect thousands of AI chips together in the way that I explained earlier. They also have clients that are like traditional telecom giants, and then even original equipment manufacturers that embed Lumentum's lasers into retail products. So just to kind of understand what Lumentum's business is and how it works, you know, they are seeing obviously tremendous growth in their business. Just their Q4 results net revenue was up over 100% year over year. They continue to kind of interview that the CEO of Lumentum, Michael Hurlston, conducted with Bloomberg Television recently. Essentially, he stated that Lumentum is unable to meet about 70% of customer demand for its core AI products. This essentially means that also they can't address about 30% of their order log for alternative components all the way through 2028, which means their sold-out product to build and qualify a brand new semiconductor laser fabrication facility. So they are very much insulated in many ways from a lot of their fast following competitors. They have a $2 billion strategic purchase commitment from NVIDIA.com. [10:00] secure components for the Blackwell chip rollout. And of course, they've also been fortifying their long-term market position in a few different ways. They acquired a company called Cloudlight that has really accelerated their high-speed transceiver packaging abilities. There was an event that was held recently called the OCP Global Summit. While there, Lumentum demonstrated essentially their pioneering optics technology alongside industry giants like Corning and Astera Labs. And this essentially is aiming to replace the standard motherboard copper traces with light wave conduits. What this means is that Lumentum is looking to expand its addressable market to the internal chip-to-chip architecture. So it's a really interesting business. We've seen a little bit of a pullback in the price just kind of broadly that's happening across the AI trade. But I do think that this is a really, really fascinating play within the broader AI build out. They continue to see some fluctuations in terms of their bottom line growth, just kind of given the mechanisms of this business. But, you know, their backlog, the inability to meet so much of their customer demand because the demand is so high, and then just where they sit in the value chain in the AI build-out, I think Lumentum Holdings is an interesting one to watch. Yeah, and Similarly to Nebius, we have NVIDIA backing them and investing in the company as well. in pretty good position to be in. Now my second pick is actually some call it the anti-NVIDIA, which is Broadcom. Now why is it called the anti-NVIDIA? Because well, The big customers that go to Broadcom are of course huge customers of NVIDIA, but they want to diversify away. from NVIDIA not rely too much on NVIDIA chips. And so they went to Broadcom. When you look at Entropic, OpenAI, Meta, Google, TPUs, They go to Broadcom, they design, they co-design those chips with Broadcom to make sure that yes, Nvidia cannot, let's say, squeeze every dime out of these companies with their chips, and they rely less on the Nvidia architecture and more on on their own, which in turn can make their internal workloads, of course, more efficient. The return on investment there can make more sense. Does that mean that NVIDIA will not continue to grow? No, I still believe that NVIDIA will stay the number one player in the field for many, many years to come. But Broadcom, again, based on what the management has told us, they're looking at $30 per share of EPS. 30 dollars of earnings in 2028. As of right now, this is a company that's trading at around $340 per share or so. So if you want to put a small multiple on that 2028 target, It's really not that expensive for a company that is expected to grow very quickly. They told us that AI revenue, only AI revenue, not that's just a segment which is the largest segment of the business, but not the whole business, is expected to double next year to $115 billion, And then they see doubling again to $230 billion the year after that. To me, when management tells me this, of course, management needs to have a good track record, otherwise they can make up any numbers and then they won't deliver on it. if they tell me already today and it fits the whole story of the whole industry that There's just so much demand they cannot supply enough. Then, We're looking at a company that's going to generate over $230 billion. two years from now. while still corroding across the board, margins of course are very good. This is very unlike my first peak. This is a company that does generate billions and billions of dollars, tens of billions of dollars in free cash flow. Yes, this is also a company that is participating maybe in the circular financing game but we've spoken about that i think in in past videos as well i just see this as them viewing an opportunity to accelerate the industry. They have the means to do it. And so this is what is happening right now. Broadcom Yes, it has risks to it because it does have big clients like and tropic. and OpenAI, and it's something that we spoke about in Friday's video, is what happens if those companies do not grow as fast as expected. How does that impact a company like Broadcom? It is a risk to know. So, it's not a problem, right? Customers like Meta, like Google, where I don't think there are issues and others as well. I don't think there are issues of not meeting their commitments there, but purely focusing on Broadcom's business I do think it is very, very well positioned because I do think that there are going to be these big companies and maybe more in the future where, yes, they would like to develop more and more of their own custom silicon. So Broadcom, Marvel being another name, but Broadcom being the biggest one there is definitely [15:00] going to benefit from it And then the question becomes, can OpenAI and Entropic really grow as fast As expected, they don't have to make sense valuation-wise per se. They just have to make sense. The business has to make sense. Like, If they go public at the $2 trillion valuation, but they're only going to generate, let's say, $100 billion, then $200 billion in revenue. it's still $200 billion, so that's still good to meet the commitments. and grow. But it might not be good enough for the stock to be trading at $2 trillion. But again, that's not my problem. as a Broadcom shareholder. That's probably a problem for Entropic and OpenAI shareholders. But I do want to put a Broadcom in in this discussion because it's also trading at, I think, forward PEs closer to 20 times, 21 times right now for a company that's expected to grow this quickly. and is already quite profitable. In this market, I view this as a favorable risk reward pick. Yeah, I really like Broadcom. I think they're a quality business and the market's certainly been a bit hard on the stock recently. The final company we're going to talk about today, MyStock, is a business called Coherent. And I talked earlier about the AI value chain. This spans everything from semiconductors to networking and physical infrastructure to cloud compute to large language models to software applications. buckets. Coherent sits at that critical networking interconnect layer. Again, similar way to Lamentum, operating within the continuous bottleneck that physical AI hardware infrastructure is facing. You know, when NVIDIA, for example, designs GPUs, the physical challenge of modern AI cluster scaling is data movement. And if it can't move between thousands of GPUs fast enough data, that translates the computer processing into hyperfast, low latency light signals. So their business model is again built on kind of controlling the entire physical stack from growing raw compound semiconductor crystals in a lab to building the final high speed optical transceivers that power a lot of modern infrastructure. So Coherent owns specialized fabs that produce what are known as engineered substrates. This includes indium phosphide, and gallium arsenide. And what are these is they transform these raw wafers into laser engines, essentially. So they generate revenue through volume-based hardware sales. Their components have to be custom-tailored and qualified inside customer systems over months or years. So this creates a very predictable recurring revenue, as well as just repeat purchase dynamic. Coherent non-core assets to double down on its data center and communication segment. This is something we've seen broadly within the space. Coherent has been no exception. So its data center and communication segment accounts for about 75 to 80 percent of its total revenue. That's most of the business at this point. The remainder of its business serves industrial manufacturing lasers like precision cutting and EV batteries and consumer tech, but most of it is the data center business. integrated optical platform architectures. It has its photon link platform, for example, and this bundles lasers, optics and fibers into a single plug and play assembly for its clients. and one of the things that's also interesting as well is as ai clusters are kind of outgrowing traditional copper They're pivoting towards what's known as co-package optics and near package optics, where these laser fiber optics, they're mounted directly onto the same silicon substrate as the compute switch. And of course, you have the backing of the big companies like NVIDIA and others that are key to Coherence's growth story. Now, management has said in recent earning calls that the primary ceiling on their data center revenue, which, as I noted, now makes up the bulk of the business. The ceiling isn't assembly. It's not testing capacity. It's raw internal laser output. So Coherent is producing 80% more indium phosphide lasers than it was a year ago. And it's currently on track to double its internal output within the next few months. And so we're continuing to see also that it plans to double that again to meet the continued hyper growth cycle. This is a company with a very diversified enterprise footprint. They generate revenue across a global portfolio of industrial manufacturing, lasers, advanced engineering, [20:00] materials. Their revenue base is about $7 billion as of fiscal 2026, so they have a nice capital cushion there. And Coherent is also poised to be one of the first movers in the upcoming co-packaged optics architectural shift. Management has said that they plan to start recognizing meaningful revenue from this business within the next quarters that would place them broadly ahead of the industry curve. It's a really, really interesting business. You know, the other thing I will note is that, The AI industry is looking at an engineering transition from 800 gigabit optical networks to the next generation 1.6 terabit transceivers. And at that 1.6 terabit networking speed, the power consumption of a standard data center module threatens to really overheat clusters and less operators are utilizing coherence indium phosphide modulators. So we are continuing to see that growth from this business. You know, revenue growth is significant. significant. I do think that they're broadly well insulated from a lot of the broader credit fallout that we've been seeing in the space. And of course, they're working with some of the most well capitalized companies on earth as their clients. So Coherent, another stock to consider within the AI infrastructure build out and looking specifically within that infrastructure bottleneck. Well, four very different AI stocks for today, comments. Are you a buyer of any of these stocks? Do you already own these businesses? What other stocks do you think we should be talking about as we continue to look at the AI revolution and build out We'd love to hear your comments. please like and subscribe and we will see you in the next video. Thank you. . Thank you.