美股盘面上演了极具戏剧性的震荡走势，科技股与高投机标的集体承压重挫。CoreWeave 单日暴跌超过 10%，SpaceX 下挫逾 9%，AMD 跌幅超过 8%，Meta 下跌 7%，美光科技（Micron）跌幅亦突破 6%。面对如此剧烈的市场波动，博主指出本期视频将深入梳理市场走势、预判未来路径，并逐一探讨多个重磅市场话题：包括华尔街名嘴 Tom Lee 盘前两小时发表的最新市场观点、黄仁勋（Jensen Huang）针对新兴算力云（NeoCloud）强劲需求的讲话、当前 AI 资本开支究竟是狂欢还是临界点的争论，以及全美成屋销售创下 25 年新低的宏观现实。此外，视频还将披露博主当日投入数万美元买入的具体标的。
在科技权重股血流成河的同时，盘面另一端却展现出截然不同的图景。家居零售巨头 RH 在过去六个交易日内累计暴涨 29.6%，单日再度攀升 9.5%，“You would think this is the greatest stock market in the history of mankind.” 网飞（Netflix）当日逆势上涨 3%，赛富时（Salesforce）上涨近 3.5%，雅诗兰黛（Estée Lauder）涨幅也达到约 4%。这些冷门股票的强劲表现，与跌跌不休的 AI 投机概念股形成了极其鲜明的对比。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Tech Sell-off vs Defensive Gainers
accDescr: Divergence between plunging tech hardware/cloud names and surging overlooked value/consumer plays.
很多投资者在配置上存在严重的逻辑误区，极易被市场短期热点所蒙蔽。以持续阴跌疲软的 CoreWeave 为例，普通投资者根本没有持有这种标的的必要。博主强调，在全市场浩如烟海的标的中，投资者必须时刻拷问自己的持仓逻辑：“Who wants that stock? Like sometimes you gotta ask yourself, Who wants a stock like that?” 如果想要布局 AI 算力与云计算赛道，直接选择亚马逊旗下的 AWS 更加稳健；如果想博取 AI 硬件的增长，AMD 也是更明确的路径；即便愿意承受高风险以博取高弹性，大举投入资本开支的 Meta 在风险收益比上也远优于 CoreWeave。
纳斯达克指数经历 20% 以上的深度调整不仅不是灾难，反而是一剂健康的猛药。博主在社交平台 X 上直言：“A 20% plus sell off in the NASDAQ would be really healthy. A lot of people need a lesson in risk management and having the stomach for sell offs.” 每天单边上涨的温室环境培养不出成熟的投资者，反而会纵容市场滋生极其危险的操作恶习。
主讲人回顾了2021至2022年美股经历的那场极度残酷的熊市周期。在2021年市场见顶后，纳斯达克指数从最高点一路深跌超过35%，整个科技板块遭遇无情血洗。他提醒投资者回忆当时的极端惨状：Meta股价从高位暴跌超70%，Netflix下挫逾70%，Shopify重挫超过80%，Tesla跌幅超过70%，而如今炙手可热的Palantir和SoFi在当时双双跌至仅剩6美元一股。“It was brutal. Everybody got smacked. I got smacked, man. And that set us all up for a multi-year bull run that's been insane.” 每个人都在那场泥沙俱下的暴跌中遭受痛击，主讲人自己也不例外。但正是2022年的这场深幅洗盘，为随后几年波澜壮阔的超级牛市打下了坚实基础，让坚守下来的投资者斩获了数以百万计的利润。
能够在这轮牛市中大获全胜，关键在于吸取了当年的教训，没有继续盲目加杠杆或沉溺于投机工具。主讲人表示，除了偶尔买入一些看跌期权（Puts）对冲投资组合外，自己坚决不碰保证金交易（Margin），也不去碰高风险的衍生品投机，而是扎扎实实地做功课——紧密跟踪财报、细听每一次业绩电话会议。2021年许多人之所以损失惨重，是因为盲目追逐那些只讲宏大叙事、根本没有确定盈利能力的泡沫垃圾股。市场通过暴跌给所有人上了一课：投资者必须学会成为合格的“资本守护者”（Good steward of capital）。如果整个市场资金泛滥，阿猫阿狗都能融到钱，资本就会被极度浪费；唯有把有限的资金集中配置到具备最优质风险回报比、基本面扎实的核心企业中，才能穿越牛熊。
主讲人对这一历史类比深表认同，并进一步展开自己的推演。他严厉告诫那些企图在暴跌中割肉离场、判定AI芯片周期已经彻底终结的悲观散户：“Slow down. Okay, slow down. My guess is all those types of stocks still have at least one or two more big runs in them before this cycle really has problems.” 主讲人明确指出，尽管半导体行业具有周期性，未来两到三年后确实可能遭遇利润率见顶和每股收益（EPS）萎缩的泥潭，但绝不是现在。在短期内，这批优质硬件和芯片股更像是一根“被极度压缩的弹簧”（Coiled spring）。
主播对黄仁勋的言论进行了客观且犀利的拆解。主播直言，黄仁勋无疑是极具远见且极为聪慧的企业家，“Whenever he speaks about subjects, you should absolutely understand he's likely the most educated person in the room in relation to that.” 但投资者必须清醒地意识到黄仁勋强烈的利益相关性：英伟达眼下扮演着整个AI狂欢的“首席啦啦队长”。为了维持英伟达自身的增长动能和极高的产品溢价能力，黄仁勋必须确保所有人都能取得成功——无论是超大规模云服务商（hyperscalers）、新一代AI云平台（Neo clouds），还是内存供应商。一旦有云厂商撑不住倒下，对英伟达芯片的需求就会随之萎缩；唯有持续制造巨大的行业狂热，英伟达才能继续对其产品“要什么价就是什么价”。
访谈节目进一步探讨了市场对AI叙事态度的转变。从2022年底ChatGPT横空出世以来，投资逻辑经历了几轮演变：最早是盲目买入“美股七巨头”（Magnificent 7），随后演变为在超大规模云厂商与半导体硬件之间进行二元选择。而到了当前阶段，这些粗糙的分类已彻底过时。市场正步入一个更为复杂的“分化期（trickier phase）”——单纯加大AI投入已不再必然推升股价，甚至连提供“镐头与铲子”（picks and shovels）的基础设施股也不再享有普涨待遇。
市场普遍预计，到2027年全球相关资本开支可能达到约1.4万亿美元，较当前水平接近翻倍，但这很可能意味着本轮激进资本开支扩张周期的顶点。一旦这一庞大的资本支出进入增速放缓的“平台期（leveling off phase）”，整个半导体及算力硬件板块将迎来最惊心动魄的时刻。主播警告称，这种支出增速的见顶将把巨大的恐惧注入半导体板块：“When you get that leveling off phase, it's definitely going to be a scary moment for the semiconductors.”
与会分析师同时提醒，半导体虽然在全球范围内交出了营收暴增88%、毛利率攀升至80%以上的惊人成绩单，但这种暴利绝对不可持续。不能被所谓“半导体从此摆脱周期性，成为长期稳健成长股”的论调所蒙蔽。这是一场极其强大、历时数年的大型资本开支周期，但它在本质上依然是周期性的。未来的超额回报必须由基础硬件端轮动扩散至实体经济中的实际AI采用者（AI adopters），通过广泛的生产力提振带来十年年化7%的股债回报。但在当下财报季，大多数传统行业对于AI带来的实质性生产力改善仍言之过早。主播在此处严厉警示大众投资者切勿在周期顶点重蹈覆辙：“I'm going to save you a lot of money right now. Listen very closely, okay? People are going to say things like...”
[30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Junt6YEqN?t=1800s) The Semiconductor Cycle Trap and Lessons from the Mobile Revolution
The speaker pushes back hard against the prevailing market narrative that the artificial intelligence boom guarantees an endless supercycle for chipmakers. While bulls argue that surging demand for memory, compute, and data center capacity makes semiconductors an automatic multi-year winner, the speaker insists that history demonstrates the exact opposite trajectory for hardware cycles. To illustrate, he points to the mobile revolution that kicked off around 2008. The widespread adoption of smartphones, laptops, and tablets became a reality across the globe, with the speaker noting that he has six separate mobile devices sitting right on his desk. Yet, despite this forecast coming true, hardware investors who bought after the initial hype cycle were left empty-handed.
Mid-explanation, the broadcast is humorously interrupted by a violent storm outside his window in Las Vegas. Alarmed by local tornado warnings, the speaker momentarily halts the show to inspect the weather, joking about the structural vulnerabilities of his home: “And I just realized my house is not built for a tornado because the whole freaking thing is like glass.” Relieved that he was not sucked down to the Las Vegas Strip, he refocuses on his core investment thesis regarding cyclical tech waves.
Returning to the mobile and PC revolutions, he warns that semiconductor equities frequently become dead capital for five to ten years once earnings growth peaks, even while underlying end-market unit volumes remain robust. Investors make the fatal mistake of chasing hardware manufacturers after their peak acceleration rather than before. Summarizing the timing required for this asset class, the speaker stresses: “You've got to get in the semiconductors before they go through the huge wave.”
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Technology Hardware Supercycle Trajectory
accDescr: A flow chart illustrating the cyclical trap of semiconductor stocks across historical technology waves.
subgraph Wave["1. Initial Expansion"]
A["Emerging Tech Catalyst (PC, Mobile, AI)"] --> B["Surging Capex & Component Shortages"]
end
subgraph Peak["2. Peak Earnings"]
B --> C["Hardware Stocks Experience Parabolic Wave"]
C --> D["Earnings Growth Decelerates / Peaks"]
end
subgraph Trap["3. Stagnation Trap"]
D --> E["Stock Multiples Compress"]
E --> F["5-10 Years of Stagnant Dead Money"]
end
```
[33:14](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Junt6YEqN?t=1994s) Housing Market at Multi-Decade Lows and True Affordability
Turning to the macroeconomic picture, the speaker reviews breaking data on the US housing market, where pending home sales plunged to a 25-year record low with demand falling nearly 16% year-over-year. Although the 30-year fixed mortgage rate had dipped by a few basis points, buyers completely failed to re-enter the market. The speaker argues that the headline 25-year low drastically understates the true severity of the housing freeze because the US population was dramatically smaller a quarter of a century ago. When adjusted for per-capita demographic expansion, current homebuyer demand is tracking at multi-decade depths, likely reflecting 40- to 50-year lows.
The discussion highlights that prospective buyers are locked out by a toxic cocktail of 7.38% to 7.5% mortgage rates, tight post-2008 underwriting criteria from lenders, and elevated home prices that refuse to buckle due to severe structural inventory shortages. Even though homes are lingering on the market longer and triggering scattered price cuts, the sheer lack of qualifying buyers keeps transaction volumes frozen.
- Pending home sales touched an unadjusted 25-year low, dropping nearly 16% year-over-year.
- On a population-adjusted basis, housing activity is hovering around 30- to 50-year historic lows.
- 30-year fixed mortgage rates sit between 7.38% and 7.5%, locking out borrowers unable to qualify under strict post-Great Financial Crisis lending standards.
- Inventory levels are ticking up primarily because properties are sitting on the market longer rather than from an influx of fresh construction.
[35:12](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Junt6YEqN?t=2112s) The Consumer Reality: Shoes, Cars, and Paycheck-to-Paycheck Living
Addressing the "elephant in the room" that Wall Street analysts overlook, the speaker applies behavioral psychology to the real-world economic conditions facing everyday citizens. Purchasing or upgrading a home is the single most confident financial commitment an individual can make, requiring absolute certainty regarding long-term income prospects. That confidence is completely detached from reality when baseline consumer discretionary categories are collapsing.
Pointing to after-hours earnings from Deckers Brands—the parent company of Hoka and UGG—which recently lowered its full-year revenue guidance, as well as deteriorating operational figures from Nike and automotive dealerships, the speaker underscores that discretionary budgets are exhausted. If households cannot justify buying sneakers or couches, expecting them to take on an expensive residential mortgage is absurd. With 60% to 70% of Americans living paycheck to paycheck, record-high utility bills, natural gas heating costs, and gasoline prices have entirely swallowed up the typical $200 monthly buffer. Framing this disconnect between macroeconomic optimism and consumer reality, the speaker asks: “Have you seen Nike's numbers? People can't even freaking go buy new shoes, and you think they're gonna go buy a new house?”
[38:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Junt6YEqN?t=2295s) Portfolio Rebalancing: Trimming ServiceNow for Value & High-Conviction Buys
To close the session, the speaker walks through his live portfolio adjustments, detailing how he monetized gains in enterprise software to fund purchases in beat-down consumer and technology franchises. Having discussed ServiceNow extensively in his prior broadcast, he decided to lock in substantial profits by liquidating 555 shares, generating roughly $87,000 in gross cash proceeds.
He redeployed this capital across several high-conviction long-term ideas that present significantly more attractive risk-reward profiles than overextended cloud software multiples:
- **Netflix (NFLX):** Purchased approximately $23,000 to $24,000 worth of shares.
- **American Express (AXP):** Allocated roughly $22,000, explaining that while he is cautious on consumer discretionary spending in the short term, AXP represents an elite compounder over a five- to ten-year investment horizon.
- **The Honest Company (HNST):** Added $10,500 into this emerging consumer brand.
- **Celsius Holdings (CELH):** Invested roughly $31,500 into the functional energy drink maker as his largest single purchase of the session.
Reflecting on his asset rotation, the speaker explains: “So that's why I took some profits on ServiceNow and it might take more, right?” He concludes by reminding viewers of an upcoming final promotional deal of the year for his educational stock platform before signing off.
## Notable quotes
> [05:44](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Junt6YEqN?t=344s) A 20% plus sell off in the NASDAQ would be really healthy. A lot of people need a lesson in risk management and having the stomach for sell offs. — 浑水摸鱼清源
> [35:12](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Junt6YEqN?t=2112s) Have you seen Nike's numbers? People can't even freaking go buy new shoes, and you think they're gonna go buy a new house? — 浑水摸鱼清源
> [30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Junt6YEqN?t=1800s) You've got to get in the semiconductors before they go through the huge wave. — 浑水摸鱼清源
房地产25年冰点与实体消费降级
宏观经济层面，美国成屋待完成销售指数（Pending Home Sales）已跌至25年来的历史最低点。如果考虑到过去四分之一世纪美国总人口的大幅增长，当前的住房冰冻程度堪称40到50年来的最糟水平。与此同时，从Hoka母公司Deckers下调全年营收指引到耐克（Nike）等鞋服巨头的业绩疲软，无一不印证了绝大多数消费者正处于“月光族”的生存压力中。当居民连购买新鞋、新车的消费意愿都遭到抑制时，所谓的高端购房需求自然也无从谈起。
[5:44] 浑水摸鱼清源: A 20% plus sell off in the NASDAQ would be really healthy. A lot of people need a lesson in risk management and having the stomach for sell offs.
[35:12] 浑水摸鱼清源: Have you seen Nike's numbers? People can't even freaking go buy new shoes, and you think they're gonna go buy a new house?
[30:00] 浑水摸鱼清源: You've got to get in the semiconductors before they go through the huge wave.
Original transcript
[0:00] We have drama, ladies and gentlemen, drama in the market. Look at some of these moves. CoreWeave down over 10 percentage points here today. SpaceX down over 9%. AMD down over 8%. Meta down 7%. MU, Micron down over 6 plus percent. We'll do some stock talk at the beginning of this video. Talk about what's going on here, where the market's headed from here. After we get done going through that, I want to share my thoughts about the best case scenario for the market. to this video here from two hours ago. Tom Lee sharing his opinions, thoughts about the market, and we'll go ahead and react to that. Then I wanna react to this one, Jensen, talking about he sees high NeoCloud demand. That should be an interesting one to react to. Wanna react to this one, AI spending boom or breaking point. Then I wanna react to this one, home sales hit 25 years low. We got all types of fun stuff to react to in this video here today. This has gotta be an action-packed video. Then we're gonna get into all the stocks I bought here today. which I spent tens of thousands of dollars on stocks here today. So we'll speak about that in this video here today. Action pack, ladies and gentlemen. I got to get rolling straight into this. So I appreciate y'all for being here. Just smash that like button if you haven't already done so. Less than 10% of people. Hit the little thumbs up icon for the... People that are in that less than 10%, I thank you so much for doing that. I hope you guys appreciate all the work that goes in all these videos and me trying to keep you guys up to date with everything going on. And man, there's always a lot going on, including its earnings season right now. Massive Halloween sale coming, by the way, on thousandxstocks.com. That will be a deal you want to take advantage of in the month of October, along with some of these stock deals as well. So that will be the pinned comment down there. Click on that. Put in your name and email or phone number. We'll send over the deal when it drops on Halloween. Okay. All righty. in here, hey, hey, hey, can we start with some good news? Can I share something good? Listen. RH stock. RH the past six trading days is up a whopping 29.6%. You would think this is the greatest stock market in the history of mankind. Look at that move, ladies and gentlemen. You're going to be flipping my flapjacks. way if you bought our age in the past like week or two you're looking pretty darn good. Pretty darn good. Wow, what a move there, okay? But stocks like that, are few and far between right now. You got obviously crowd, or not crowd strike core. We've continued to be insanely weak. I mean, that stock can't catch a break. It just can't catch a break. You know, um, Who wants that stock? Like sometimes you gotta ask yourself, Who wants a stock like that? Think about all the stocks you could invest in the stock market. Why would you want corn weave? There's just nothing exciting going on there. Like if I want to play, if I want to play the AI wave and Anything in relation to cloud, I'm going to play Amazon with AWS. I don't want to mess around with cord weave. Thank you very much. No, I'm good. If I want to play AI in general, like play AMD, it's just like, why would I want to even mess around with the core weed? So that's what you got to ask yourself sometimes, like when there's just such better opportunities. If you want to play something riskier in the AI space. Buy Metastalk. right you know they're spending fortunes of money but and it's definitely riskier or it's not riskier than core weave is less risky than core weave right but if you want to play something higher risk high reward play meta over our core weave any day So that's kind of the issue a stock like that has. It's like, why? Why even mess around with it? There's just much better risk-reward profiles out there. Now, I want to show you guys this definitely was some green out there. Look at RH today, up 9.5%. Netflix had a good day, up 3%. Salesforce continues to be very strong, up almost 3.5% today. Look at Estee Lauder. Estee Lauder for the people in the back, up about 4%. stocks I've been talking about this year A lot of those stocks did very well today, right? And no one's cared about those stocks because people will have this – Unfortunately, they can get very caught up into whatever is the shiny object at that particular time. So if there's like – if AI stocks go ones, like everybody pays attention to that and they see these other opportunities out there. Like you could have bought Elf back in June for $49, right? And you've over doubled your money. Well over doubled your money since then. Meanwhile, you could have also been buying memory stocks at that particular time and you're probably down huge on your memory stocks since June, right? Like, You could have doubled your money or you could have lost a bunch of money. Like, what do you want to do, right? But people tend to gravitate toward whatever has been the hot thing recently, and they think that's going to remain the hot thing, right? And it's like it's not how it works. Stocks can go through major bull cycles into a huge bear cycle or a huge kangaroo cycle where you make no money from it.
[5:00] quite some time and these hated stocks then people are like you couldn't get me to touch these stocks next thing you know those ones are booming and people are like what happened here right um so just something to kind of keep in mind there you know it's just uh it's very interesting you know the dynamic in the market i've been in this game a long time so i just i see the waves coming you know i see the waves going and uh you know i just know how to position properly at particular times position at the right time. And most of the time I'm right about what stocks I'm right about. So, you know, it's just, that just comes with experience, man, and constantly being in the market and knowing what you're doing in this game. And this, I posted this on my X page here today, I said a 20% plus sell off in the NASDAQ would be really healthy. A lot of people need a lesson in risk management and having the stomach for sell offs. 100%. Like, that's the only way you build great investors for the long term. You don't build great investors by the market going up every day by being easy. A lot of people are in bad habits right now in the market. There's probably a lot of people that are watching this video right now. You're probably in bad habits. Are you listening to conference calls of all these companies? Are you running your projections on 1000xstocks.com? Oh, you don't have access to 1000x? Okay. Do you run in your own spreadsheets and run your own projections on where companies are? revenues are going over the next few years and their net incomes and their margin profiles and the p ratios those companies command and why they should command those are you doing all that work right and I bet you there's even a lot of people unfortunately watching this video right now you're not doing that work that means you're getting in bad habits. early on. You've got to get in the right habits. And so in order to unfortunately get people in the right habits, a lot of times you've got to get smacked. And once you get smacked around a little bit, that's what wakes you up and be like, okay. And so people get in really bad habits where they start margining on stocks, right? They're buying these leveraged ETFs that they have no business buying. They're going call options, right? They're doing these zero day options. Like there's all this risky stuff that they have no business doing. The only way you can get people to wake up and be like, that's not the way, you have to get smacked. And, you know, a 6% downward move for the NASDAQ is not getting smacked. You've got to get that 20% plus move. And then that's when you find out who are the people that are like, okay, let me get my stuff together. Let me really figure this out. Let me do this the right way versus the people that are going to fall by the wayside, right? And so it's a rite of passage. You've got to go through it. And I went through it before, right, because I got caught up in all the same crap that everybody else gets caught up into, charging out money or go on call options and do these earnings trades and whatever little hack I thought I had on the market for... Cutting corners and every single time ever try to cut the corners in the market the market eventually just slapped me in the face and that's what has to happen and so there's a there's a definitely a good approach. portion of investors that are not in the good habits and Like how somebody like myself look at this has been in the market 18 years. This is nothing. This is nothing. You know, I'm already so well positioned GBD. I position my portfolio way before you go through any sort of downturn in the market, whether it's a correction or crash, anything like that. Right. And I welcome it. You tell me if we can get the NASDAQ to go down 20%? I'm like, listen. Let's go. Gladly. I would love – I love buying Netflix at $66, but I would love to buy way more shares of $56. Like it's just going to make me a lot more money in the end, right? And for the people that can't take the short-term pain. You're not, you know, if you can't take the short-term pain in the market, that's another sign that... You're not built right for this. You've got to be able to take the short-term pain. You're going to be willing for the market to go down for two years straight. If you can't take that sort of pain, you can't be in this game. It's not meant for you. Because you are going to go through time periods when the market downtrends for two years. You are going to be in the market when it downtrends for a year straight. You are going to be in the market when the NASDAQ goes down 25% in three months. And... If you can't handle that, then, you know, you've got to get thrown out. It might not be for you. And so real investors, the real players, you can always take that and you'd be like, let's go. I can gladly take that. Right. So that's why, even though it's not necessarily my base case that the market falls 20% plus, I think if we did, and we're probably not going to have it happen, but if we did have a... 2018 type fall, that's the type of stuff that gets people set right, right? That's the type of stuff that resets everybody and says, ooh, okay. And so the people that made it through the 2022 bear market was brutal.
[10:00] How many of you guys went through that market? Were you around in the 2022 bear market when NASDAQ went down 35% plus? Peak to trough from the peak in 21 to the trough in 22. Were you guys around when Meta stock fell 70 plus percent? Were you around when Netflix stock fell 70 plus percent? Were you around when Shopify fell over 80 percent? you know tesla fell over 70 were you around in that situation were you around when palantir fell to six dollars a share Around when SoFi was at $6 a share, right? Like... If you were around at that time, you know what it was. It was brutal. Everybody got smacked. I got smacked, man. And that set us all up for a multi-year bull run that's been insane. The amount of millions of dollars we've made since 22 is a lot of millions, right? And... We played it the right way. Haven't messed around with margin. Haven't been, you know, other than hedging the portfolio with some puts here and there. Haven't messed around with any major way in options or leveraged plays. Anything like that, right? We've done it the right way. We've been putting in the research, been keeping track of all these companies' earnings, listening to conference calls. We played it the right way and we've prospered. on the back of that, right? But we had to get smacked in 22 because a lot of us, including myself, we were in some bad positions in 21, taking way too much risk. We need to get smacked. And we got smacked. And that was something that definitely set us right and got us into great quality companies rather than some of these risky companies. You've got to be a good steward of capital. A lot of people, you know, they aren't a good steward of capital. Like that's a way of the market smacking you to kind of get you to realize like, you're You've got to really focus on the best companies because if everybody's getting capital, right, then capital is going to be wasted out there in the marketplace in a major way. It's about being in the best companies with the best risk reward profiles and being a good steward of capital and not just throwing your money and sloshing your money at companies. Everything because this stock has a story and like they might make some money someday, you know, like that's just a foolish Foolish game, okay? Alrighty guys, let's go ahead and react to some videos, and we'll get into all the stocks I bought here today. - Say that AI concerns are preventing AI from becoming a bubble. Some would suggest that these concerns are merely popping what had become a bubble. - Uh. God, I know there's gonna be two sides of that debate. But the reason I'm going to say AI concerns are preventing a bubble. is that we're continuing to see astounding discoveries made by AI. I mean, whether it's the muse and the agents, but maybe Two weeks ago, OpenAI and discovering 770 math problems. This is not the end or late cycle for AI discovery and even the productivity boost. So, as long as we're starting to see Vance is there. Every dollar of capital raised for AI is generating returns. I think it's actually really healthy that the debt markets are sort of preventing a runaway speculative boom in AI. So I think it's actually a very healthy correction that way. So you're focused more on the derivative impacts, I suppose you could say, rather than spending concerns, funding concerns, capital crunch concerns, all the above? Yeah, I mean, unfortunately, AI does require a lot of dollars. We did a report a few weeks ago showing that If AI is going to spend 30 trillion, Over the next... 25 years. One, there's actually plenty of investment dollars available, because interest income from just American households annually is about 7 trillion. a trillion of that can be funded by just the interest income earned by Americans. But... The mobile network build was about 25 trillion. And roadways are $25 trillion. AI is a more important infrastructure build arguably than mobile. It's about the same dollar. So I don't think there's too much money being thrown at AI today. Would you buy the sell-off yet? Yes. I think we're near the end stages of the sell-off because it's become a consensus short... to be. Sporting tech. And I think yields, which was really worrying markets, as you know, they've backed away. So I mean, you've got Two things that were headwinds before, the Fed, Quite hawkish now, it's flipping potentially dovish. And interest rates, which were touching 5%, people fearing 6%, are now back below 5%. I think the only things you have now is debt markets are kind of closed at the moment. And of course, the uncertainty about the war. I mean, would you if you say yes, I'd buy it? Where would you buy it? Would you stay just with these largest AI related stocks in the market? Yeah, I. Scott, I think that AI and the bottlenecks of the memories and the NVIDIAs and the Mag7, they're being sold because it is easy to short them now. And I think, of course, people are worried about the credit.
[15:00] - I think they're bottoming. But I also like the software and I like the crypto here. Kind of the whole broad cyclical trade I'd be pretty bullish on. As you know, financials haven't been rallying, but rates are- Listen, if you want to know what stocks are going to boom, around Halloween and after. As long as we don't go into a 2018 scenario, right, and we have, let's say, a good November, December in the market, which is probably a base case, the stocks are going to do the best or all these tech stocks that had been doing. great before. Okay, so who is that? AMD. Micron, the memory chip companies, maybe NVIDIA to a little bit but not to big of an extent they'll probably even run back into some of the stocks like the Metas and the Amazons and some of those sorts of stocks right but it's gonna be the ones that have already been running prior right and now sold off big right and then assuming you bought them out this market right around Halloween or slightly before or slightly after and then you go into another upcycle they're gonna run back into the same stuff that was the moneymakers before so just something to kind of keep in mind there. So I think there's a lot of opportunity. This is what I view as a coiled spring because the fundamentals have been holding in. Wow, I mean, if you look at the semiconductor index or the DRAM ETF, for example, we'll show that one. There's so much destruction within that trade. I wonder what that chart, what story that chart is really going to be telling in the weeks, if not months ahead. Scott, I think it just shows you what a battle AI is today. Internet and browsers. Cisco, which was the biggest stock at the time, had a massive 50% drawdown, partly because Alan Greenspan was saying we had an irrational exuberance, and then later... kind of hinted at preemptive hikes not too dissimilar to today, Cisco went, had a 50% correction, went down to five. A year later was 18. I think the setup is similar. You know, ChatGBT is basically... crossing its third anniversary. I think we're so early in this AI trade It's understandable for people to be worried. I mean, a lot of people made money and there's a lot of profit taking as well. What about other areas of the market? So what he said there, I think that's really important. You know, if anybody wants to throw the talent on the whole move, I'm talking AMD, I'm talking the memory stocks and be like, it's over. *Sigh* Um... Slow down. Okay, slow down. My guess is all those types of stocks still have at least one or two more big runs in them before this cycle really has problems. Okay, so I mean, it's possible it's all over for all those companies and all their earnings are going to crash next year and the year after. I don't think that's too realistic. I think you're at least two years or three years out of those to margin problems, earnings per share problems, and those sorts of things. But it's not in the short term. And so that's where you're getting a big disconnect out there. And so... Like what he brings up there is the whole Cisco situation, the 50% drawdown. Next thing you know, stock triples up. And I'm not saying all the memory chip stocks are going to go triple up or something like that, but is it possible those stocks... you know, go up 50% in the next five months. I think it's possible, right? That doesn't mean I'm going to go buy them and go buy call options and margin out and do all that stupid stuff. But I'm just like, could I see how we could get there? Sure, sure. Sure. It's possible. Yeah, the market's broadened, but in a not so great way. Healthcare, staples, utilities, that doesn't exactly exude confidence in the market. No, yeah, to see Waste Services, which is a super defensive group railing, just showed the market's nervous. I'd say the half full argument is that that's also a breadth argument. But I did talk with Mark Newton. It does look like we're seeing... tech basically touching support. So I think We know that the next couple of weeks are uncertainty into midterms. I think this is the window where investors can buy things because... The market is going generally risk off, but I think post midterms, the market's going to rally broadly and very strongly. I mean, we did have Mark on yesterday, or not the day before, who said under the surface, the Qs and the S&P are stronger than it would seem. So we shall see. Tom, thanks. Tom Lee. Okay, next one up here, Jensen. The demand for the neoclouds is off the charts. Their capabilities are extraordinary.
[20:00] And so what is missing in the middle is the working capital to fuel that growth, to fund that growth. And because there's just so much demand across so many sectors of AI, there's a scarcity of capital. The demand of the capital is much greater than the availability of the capital. That's going to get solved. And that's going to get solved because fundamentally the most important things are the values that these guys are providing, these companies are providing. The demand for it is so strong. Jensen's view there really it's not an issue about demand or the business model itself but access to working capital as well and of course as I mentioned . I don't think so. You know, one of the things that's really great about memory is that you could always use more of it. And of course, through architecture ideas, and NVIDIA owns the architecture of our systems, through architecture ideas, we could shift around the resources as necessary. But HBM memory will be used for years to come, and LPDDR... So, you know, here's what I would... takeaway from what Jensen just talked about there, okay? Listen. I'll give it to you both ways. OK, first off, Jensen, brilliant. You know, like we all know that, right? Like his success speaks for itself. And so whenever he speaks about subjects, you should absolutely understand he's likely the most educated person in the room in relation to that. Right. On the flip side, we also do have to acknowledge that he needs everybody really to be successful here to keep his whole momentum with his company going. clouds start to fail. then demand for NVIDIA chips starts to wane. And so he needs everybody really to be doing well. And so he's definitely a cheerleader. for the whole movement. We're talking about the big cloud companies, we're talking about the Neo clouds, even memory. Like he wants everybody to be winning right now. And there's just to be massive hype and excitement around AI because at the end of the day, that means he can command almost any price he wants for his company's products. It's as simple as that. Okay. And so, you know, it's kind of like, well, the weird situations where it's like, what he's saying is probably true and he's insanely intelligent, but at the same time, like he's definitely very, very biased. Um, so that is something we have to acknowledge. All right, let's get this next one. how clear that prison is right now? It's not entirely clear. I think what is clear is that there's very, very strong demand for AI as we see sectors across the economy start this long process of AI adoption. That said, what I don't think is clear for investors is how exactly that's showing up in terms of pricing and winners and losers. It's been about a year now, really since the year that we've been in this trickier phase of AI where more AI isn't necessarily a good thing for the specific stock prices of hyperscalers and now not even for picks and shovels. And I think it just means we're in a trickier phase where there's a lot more dispersion within these buckets, even if the demand itself is very strong. We are actually quite optimistic that five years, especially now where we have negative free cash flow, that's very tricky. And I think for right now, for the earnings season, it's really all about the second derivative problem, which is really the pace of capex spending and monetization of AI. What exactly does that look like in 2027? Yeah, it's interesting because it seems like we're in a market where investors are punishing companies that are spending too little on AI, but then they're also punishing companies that are spending too much on AI. How do you navigate that? That's right. And I think really what we've seen is when the story first started, we all started to really use ChatGPT in late 2022. It was easy. Oh, buy the Mag7. And then it became, oh, actually, let's migrate and think about hyperscalers versus semiconductors. And now even these discrete buckets are pretty anachronistic. And it's really within each one, within the hyperscalers, there's a lot more differentiation. the actual free cash flow dynamics, which companies at least isn't seeing any worse thing or even seeing some improvement in the free cash flow dynamic, meaning they're seeing more monetization than they're actually spending on the CapEx itself. Even within also the actual CapEx builders, you're seeing a lot more dispersion to very different than what we had in the second quarter. And there it's really about the
[25:00] Sustainability of all of this capex spending and these very elevated gross margins, which every investor knows is not really sustainable besides the near term. So it's a lot more dispersion within. And we would really focus in, if you had to look at one factor, it's quality. Momentum was outperforming by 35 percentage points in the second quarter, momentum versus quality. And now that gap is basically closed because it's not so easy as just following these buckets, just following momentum. Yeah, being able to build all of this stuff. And I saw the FT noted today that if you put all the hyperscalers together, the amount that's expected that they're going to spend here on AI infrastructure rivals with the Netherlands total economic output, which is just a crazy, crazy statistic. How sustainable is that as you talk about this moment of transition that we're in from building all of this stuff to adoption here in the year ahead? So I think the big question is how much longer do we have in the acceleration phase of CapEx? year here where 2027 when all is said and done will probably be another year where we'll see about 1.4 trillion dollars in capex which still represents nearly a doubling but then after that it's kind of important to see some kind of leveling off of this big capex spend phase and just figuring out when exactly that happens and what the amount is that we level off at that's really where it's still very very hazy um when we think about so the level off phase is going to be really what specific stocks. I'll tell you what. the semiconductors. When you get that leveling off phase, it's definitely going to be a scary moment for the semiconductors. There'll be a huge level of fear that comes into semiconductors once you get that leveling off of the spend. which is still probably at least a year away. But it's because that's the moment where everybody's like, crap. These companies don't just have unlimited amounts of money to just keep upping, upping, upping, upping, upping the amount they spend year after year. And so that's when people really start to fear about NVIDIA growth rates moving forward, about the memory chip companies and what they can command for pricing moving forward. You'll even see it a little bit in AMD, although AMD is a market share stealer really over the next few years. They're kind of in their own game, but there'll still be even questions there. So everybody's gonna get the questions. Nvidia and the memory stocks will get it the worst though. Broadcom and AMD will get it less so. But they'll still get the questions too. It'll just be to less of an extent. And so... Just something to keep in mind there, ladies and gentlemen. Long term projections, we're actually quite optimistic that this all translates into a decade of higher productivity growth and hence more elevated margins. And that's really about the adoption of across sectors. So we think ultimately this translates to better expected returns for equities, actually for equities and bonds, where we forecast a 7 percent annualized return over the next decade. That's that's a big jump higher versus what we had been expecting the last decade. Does this then support the argument for a broadening out in the equity market? And if that CapEx acceleration were to slow, wouldn't that then hurt all of the picks and shovels companies, basically every sector that's getting propped up right now by this ramping up in the AI build out? And it's the rotation within the market that is set to change pretty dramatically here. They were up 88% on a global basis. You're seeing these incredible gross margins of 80% plus. But that's not sustainable. And I don't think we should get lulled into a conversation that on a secular basis, semiconductors are now very different. No, this is cyclical. It's a long, really powerful CapEx cycle. But eventually, it's going to peak. It's going to level off. The growth rate will slow. really benefiting the picks and shovels, but that has to change into the actual AI adopters themselves. Now, it's still too early. When we look at the earnings season, you're not really seeing quite yet companies talk about the actual tangible productivity benefits of AI adoption. It's going to be a process, but eventually we do think that shows up when we look at financials, excited about. Yeah, the place people make a big mistake when I say people, I'm talking investors, is in I'm sure there's a lot of you guys that are also going to make this mistake, unfortunately. Okay, listen. It's a big, big, big, big mistake. I'm going to save you a lot of money right now. Listen very closely, okay? People are going to say things like...
[30:00] We need to build out a lot more We need a lot more memory. We need a lot more of all this stuff over the coming years. And so therefore, semiconductors are the way. Okay, and so No, that's not how it works. Okay. I can take you back to every single technology cycle we've ever been through. And they were all massive. I'll take you back to the mobile revolution. Okay. Mobile revolution. Not that long ago. This was just a little over a decade ago. Oh my gosh. everybody's going to have a mobile device. It came true. Everybody, everybody, everybody watching this, you're probably watching this on a mobile device right now, right? Everybody's got laptops and tablets and smartphones and all these mobile devices now all over the world, right? Huge mobile revolution occurred from like 2008 to 2008. you know to that next decade and now you know it seems like everybody's got mobile devices if not a bunch of mobile device i mean just on my desk right here just on my desk i've got one two, three, Four, five, six. six mobile devices Right on my desk right here, right? It happened. And so the assumption could have been, hey, you know... Like, we're going to have this mobile revolution. It's going to be massive. What is going on out there? Tornado? Holy smokes. Oh my goodness, crazy out there. Oh shoot! It's getting crazy. Hold on. Hold your horses. They've been warning about tornadoes in Vegas. I think it's here. All right, I'm back. It was crazy, man. We had a crazy, crazy storm situation just occur here. And people have been warning about these tornadoes hitting the West Coast. And I just realized... my house is not built for a tornado because the whole freaking thing is like glass. And I'm like, I can't even hide anywhere in this house. Like the tornado is just going to suck me up. I'm gone, man. I'm going to be straight down to Las Vegas Strip. It's going to suck me all the way down there. Um, I don't remember what point I was about to make. I think it was, oh, in relation to the mobile revolution, I think we were talking about. And, um, So people thought the semiconductor stocks were safe because, like, so many more people are going to be buying smartphones and tablets and all those sorts of things. Most of those semiconductor stocks, after their first and second, like, huge waves, ended up being huge money stocks for, like, the next five to ten years. Okay. And so they had a huge upcycle, and then earnings would then slowly start to peak. And then people didn't buy those stocks, even though those companies still were making great profits. laptops and every other mobile device out there and you know uh watches took off and like all this stuff happened And yet so many of those semiconductor stocks end up being huge money stocks. And then you go back to the PC wave, same exact situation. And obviously this situation will be no different. There will be people making these assumptions about, oh, demand in a lot of these stocks will end up being huge money stocks. And like people won't make any money in them over like a five, ten year span. They'll be like, what the heck? You've got to get in the semiconductors before they go through the huge wave. Okay, that's a really important thing to understand there. All right, let's go ahead and react to this one. Today, any glimmers? We're going to razor down a cheesy bell? Okay, well, not surprising. In fact, the hope was, okay, we saw last week's average on the 30-year fix actually drop back for- The averages which moved differently, but last week they fell. Did home buyers get in there for more demand? No, they did not. In fact, demand dropped again and is down close to 16% year over year. And we might have. So pending home sales hits 25 year low. The crazy thing of that is. It's way worse than that, right? 25 years ago, dramatically less people lived in the United States than live in the United States now, right? So just understand... Ooh, if you were to take population into account in relation to the situation, we might be at 30 or 40 or 50 year lows. It's really, really bad. Be more responsive. But I guess it shows that when rates are this high, it just takes more than a couple basis points of a drop to get people going again. Yeah. And it's not just this kind of emotional feeling about, OK, rates are over 7 percent, whether it's 7 and a half or 7.38, which I think they hit today. But it's more a lot of people don't qualify at this level. monthly payment but qualifying by the lenders who as we know are much more strict since the great recession and financial crisis. But it's also home prices are just not giving any help at all. They continue to be higher year over year and that's because we still have this supply issue not enough. We were talking to the Compass CEO about that the other day and a few different people who are saying they're starting to see more prices being cut. Do you think that that's going to get things to move a little bit more price cuts or the inventory that's sitting there is starting to come down? well so there is
[35:00] inventory on the market now. We're getting into the season where you see more inventory, and there's more inventory simply because homes are sitting longer on the market, so that builds it up. But overall, we're still short several million homes for the demand that's out there. Yeah, but they're also not talking about the other big thing, right? Prices matter, right? Rates matter. Absolutely. But we're missing the elephant in the room, okay? Do you... Listen, I took a lot of psychology courses. You want me to teach you a little something about human psychology? Let me teach you a little something about human psychology, okay? Listen. When somebody goes to buy a new house, it's the most confident financial decision you can ever make in the respect of you don't go buy a new house and usually people are going to move up, right? They're buying a bigger house, a nicer house, spending more money, right? unless it's like a you know retired person then they might go down but for most people they're buying up, right? You don't make that decision unless you're insanely confident about your financial situation and your financial future, right? So, Listen, did you see Decker's earnings after the bell today? They just took down their guidance. They may have a bunch of different shoe brands. They have Hoka and Ugg and a few other brands, right? They just took down their whole guidance for revenue for the year. Hmm. Have you seen Nike's numbers? People can't even freaking go buy new shoes. and you think they're gonna go buy a new house? You can't buy new shoes, but you're going to go buy a new hat. So we can talk about price, we can talk about rates, blah, blah, blah. But at the end of the day, dude, if you can't go buy some new shoes, If the shoe companies are having trouble hitting numbers, right, and have demand problems, You think somebody could go buy a new house? A new house? What are we talking about here, right? Have you seen the dealership numbers? They're bad. Dealership numbers are bad. And so, you know, people can't go buy a new car. You think they're going to go buy a new house? Of course not. So this is where, you know... to understand a little bit about the real world and real world economics. I think that matters, right? When people can't go afford to buy shoes, then maybe they can afford to go buy something more expensive than that, like a new couch. And then if they can afford to buy a new couch, maybe they'll be able to afford to buy a new car. And then if they can afford to buy a new car, maybe they'll be able to afford a new house. But come on, man. You know, like... You've got to understand Most people are living paycheck to paycheck. That's just a reality, right? A smaller percentage, maybe it's 30%, maybe it's 40% of the population actually has, you know, a significant amount of money at the end of each month, whether that be, you know, 800 bucks a month or $2,000 a month or something like that, maybe 30%, 40%, something like that. But most people are living paycheck to paycheck. And then when all of a sudden you get hit with, you know, gas prices are the most expensive ever in the history of the United States and natural gas prices and people's heating bills are the most expensive they've ever been and this and this and this, right? Suddenly, if you already didn't really have any leftover at the end of the month, what are you going to be in that situation now? If you had $200 extra a month, now you're using it on gas, gasoline and natural gas to heat your house or heating oil or whatever. Now you don't have anything leftover to go to the restaurant anymore. to go buy that new pair of shoes or this or that, right? So, you know, that's something we've got to acknowledge, okay? All right, so let's talk about some stocks I bought here today. So, first off, I ended up taking a huge profit on some ServiceNow shares. So sold... was it 555 shares there was about $87,000 in proceeds. And with that money I bought Netflix. I bought... 23 almost 24 000 in netflix about 22 000 of american express i bought 10 you know when it comes to a company like american express it's not because i'm bullish on the consumer short term i can tell you that much it's more just like that's a phenomenal company being over the next five ten years right honest i bought uh ten thousand five hundred dollars worth of honest today and then celsius the wealthiest i bought uh thirty thirty one and a half thousand dollars of celsius here much better than ServiceNow. So that's why I took some profits on ServiceNow and it might take more, right? And I spoke about ServiceNow extensively in the video last night, okay? Alrighty, guys, hope you enjoyed today's video. I got a huge deal coming for you guys for 1000xstocks.com. Make sure you guys get access to that. It's well, well worth the price. And I love to throw a deal out there. And so we got an amazing deal coming. It's our last deal of the year. So make sure you take advantage of that. All right, guys, much love and have a great day.
