马拉松石油炼厂利用率达94% 裂解价差推动年化回报超160%

浑水摸鱼清源

地缘冲突引发的精炼供给短缺推高裂解价差，马拉松石油依托极致运营效率与中游物流网络构筑对冲屏障，实现业绩与量化评级双重爆发。

AI-assisted summary of 【Seeking Alpha】量化精选：炼油巨头MPC，马拉松石油暴涨 — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-10-24

Key ideas

中东地缘摩擦与全球炼厂停机导致库存收紧，推动柴油及航煤裂解价差走高，能源板块年内涨幅稳居美股前列。 (0:00)
马拉松石油（MPC）炼厂产能利用率达94%，在Seeking Alpha量化体系中获“强力买入”评级，过去一年年化回报率突破160%。 (1:52)
MPC依托旗下MPLX中游仓储物流管网及可再生柴油业务构建多元现金流，有效对冲油价与裂解价差的短期剧烈波动。 (3:25)
MPC入选Seeking Alpha三大核心量化投资组合及旗舰策略Alpha Picks；该策略运作四年余累计回报超300%，显著跑赢标普500指数。 (5:01)

Detailed notes

## Background 本内容由UP主“浑水摸鱼清源”于2026年10月24日发布在Bilibili平台，源自Seeking Alpha的量化投研栏目。简介指出，由于中东地缘政治摩擦与全球炼厂停机推高裂解价差，资深量化策略师深入剖析了炼油巨头马拉松石油（MPC）凭借高达94%的产能利用率、A级量化因子以及MPLX物流一体化网络所构筑的投资价值与安全垫。

## TL;DR 节目聚焦下游炼油龙头马拉松石油（MPC）的强劲增长逻辑。在原油供应链趋紧与裂解价差居高不下的宏观催化下，MPC以94%的极致产能利用率拉动了创纪录的现金流，并在盈利能力、成长性和动能等核心量化因子上斩获A级评价，过去一年年化回报率突破160%。同时，旗下MPLX中游物流仓储网络与可再生柴油业务有效平抑了大宗商品价格的周期性波动，展现出强大的防御韧性。凭借卓越的基本面与运营数据，MPC已被纳入Seeking Alpha全部三大量化投资组合及旗舰选股策略Alpha Picks。

## Atmosphere & style 全片充斥着专业、克制且节奏紧凑的美股机构研报质感。主持人Nicole Benjamin与代班高级量化策略师Emma Johnston配合默契、提问直击要害，对话完全摒弃了情绪化的市场喧嚣，转而用冰冷的量化评级、产能数据与财务指标构建起严密逻辑。整体观感干练高效，在严谨务实的专业基调中，层层递进地展现出对硬核量化选股逻辑与企业工业运营实力的从容自信。

## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=0s) 中东地缘摩擦与全球炼厂停机导致库存收紧，推动柴油及航煤裂解价差走高，能源板块年内涨幅稳居美股前列。 - [01:52](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=112s) 马拉松石油（MPC）炼厂产能利用率达94%，在Seeking Alpha量化体系中获“强力买入”评级，过去一年年化回报率突破160%。 - [03:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=205s) MPC依托旗下MPLX中游仓储物流管网及可再生柴油业务构建多元现金流，有效对冲油价与裂解价差的短期剧烈波动。 - [05:01](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=301s) MPC入选Seeking Alpha三大核心量化投资组合及旗舰策略Alpha Picks；该策略运作四年余累计回报超300%，显著跑赢标普500指数。

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=0s) 受中东地缘政治摩擦与全球多地炼厂突发停机影响，国际原油与成品油供应链阶段性收紧。 - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=0s) 供应链收紧彻底改变了下游炼油商的盈利逻辑，能源板块整体表现稳居美股各行业涨幅前列。 - [00:54](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=54s) 柴油、航煤等终端成品油与原油之间的裂解价差持续处于历史高位，为下游精炼商创造丰厚利润空间。 - [00:54](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=54s) 马拉松石油（MPC）主营产品集中于柴油与航空煤油等高附加值成品油，直接转化为创纪录的现金流与盈利动能。 - [01:52](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=112s) MPC在Seeking Alpha量化评级中被评为“强力买入”，其五个核心因子中有四个获得A级及以上评价。 - [01:52](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=112s) 公司炼油产能利用率高达94%，印证了极高的运营效率与精益管理水平，带动盈利因子获评A+、成长性获评A。 - [01:52](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=112s) 分析师持续上调业绩预期叠加市场投资信心，推动MPC动能因子达A+，过去一年年化回报率突破160%，大幅超越行业中位数。 - [03:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=205s) 针对大宗商品价格剧烈波动的顾虑，MPC通过高度一体化的商业模式构建了强大的业绩安全垫。 - [03:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=205s) MPC旗下MPLX物流、管网与仓储资产采用稳定收费机制，收益与短期原油现货价格波动脱钩。 - [03:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=205s) 可再生柴油与中游物流网络的多元布局，即使在未来裂解价差回落时也能兜底公司盈利下限。 - [05:01](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=301s) MPC已被纳入Seeking Alpha全部三大量化投资组合，并成为旗舰选股产品Alpha Picks的最新调仓标的。 - [05:01](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=301s) Alpha Picks每月仅精选推荐2只高确定性增值个股，运行四年多累计回报超300%，显著跑赢标普500基准。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=0s) 能源板块宏观背景与裂解价差飙升

主持人 Nicole Benjamin 开启了 Seeking Alpha 的《The Weekly Grade》节目，聚焦在几分钟内快速提炼市场核心洞见。由于常规搭档 Steve 缺席，本次节目由拥有十多年量化研究经验的 Seeking Alpha 高级量化策略师 Emma Johnston 作为特邀嘉宾出席。Nicole 直奔主题，指出当前能源板块受到中东地缘政治摩擦与全球库存紧张的共同影响，整个行业正在经历大规模的价值重估，并就此询问量化模型在供应链中断的环境下如何评估下游炼油市场。

Emma Johnston 强调能源板块近期的表现极为抢眼，指出当前环境正在彻底改变下游炼油企业的利润结构。地缘政治动荡加剧了中东地区的供应链危机，叠加全球多地炼油厂的意外停机停产，共同推高了精炼环节的核心盈利指标——裂解价差（Crack Spreads）。对 Marathon Petroleum（MPC）而言，柴油、航空煤油等高附加值精炼产品在其收入矩阵中占据了绝大部分份额，因此高企的裂解价差直接转化成了创纪录的现金流与盈利动能。正如 Emma Johnston 评价道：“And what that has done, has created an environment for downstream energy companies that has resulted in elevated crack spreads and that is actually the differential between the price of crude oil and what the final end product is and so in the case of MPC we've got diesel we've got jet fuel and a number of other refined petrochemicals that makes up the bulk of their revenue base.”

- **板块表现**：能源板块年内稳居美股各行业板块涨幅第一或第二位。 - **利润推手**：原油成本与终端成品油（柴油、航煤、石化产品）之间的裂解价差处于历史高位。 - **受益逻辑**：下游精炼企业在供给收缩的背景下享有强大的议价权与利润扩张弹性。

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Macro Drivers to Refinery Profitability accDescr: Diagram illustrating how geopolitical tension and refinery outages feed into crack spreads and higher MPC margins. subgraph MacroShock["宏观与供给冲击"] A["中东地缘政治摩擦"] B["全球炼厂停机停产"] end subgraph MarketDynamics["市场传导机制"] C["全球原油与成品油库存偏紧"] D["裂解价差 (Crack Spreads) 持续走高"] end subgraph CorporateImpact["MPC 经营成果"] E["柴油 / 航空煤油高溢价变现"] F["强劲现金流、高增长与高动能"] end A --> C B --> C C --> D D --> E E --> F ```

---

[01:52](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=112s) 94% 极致产能利用率与量化“A”级因子表现

Nicole 引导讨论转向 MPC 的量化评级卡，提到该股不仅获得了 Seeking Alpha 量化体系的“强力买入”（Strong Buy）评级，且在五大核心量化因子中，有四个均斩获了“A”或更高的级别。Nicole 特别关注 MPC 炼油厂高达 94% 的产能利用率，询问量化系统如何看待如此极端的高效率运作。

Emma Johnston 解释道，94% 的产能利用率正是公司顶级运营卓越性（Operational Excellence）的最直接证据。当一家工业重资产巨头有高达 94% 的设备处于全负荷轰鸣运转状态时，它展现出的是同行难以企及的精益管理水准。这种运营实力直接反映在了量化因子上：盈利能力因子（Profitability Grade）被评定为最高的 A+；预期盈利的持续上修带动成长性因子（Growth Grade）达到 A；而当分析师纷纷上调利润预期与市场投资信心汇聚时，动能因子（Momentum Grade）同样飙升至 A+。Emma 总结指出，这种极度高效的运营表现促成了令人瞩目的长期股东回报，用她的话来说：“So when you have this investor confidence coupled with sector tailwinds converge, which is the case for MPC, you see that delivered upwards of 160% per year over the last year, I mean, and that is well above the energy sector median.”

- **产能利用率**：MPC 炼厂产能利用率高达 94%，代表极佳的运营效率与产能变现能力。 - **量化因子评分**： - 综合评级：强力买入（Strong Buy） - 盈利能力（Profitability）：A+ - 成长性（Growth）：A - 动能（Momentum）：A+ - 五大因子中有四项达到 A 级及以上。 - **相对回报率**：过去一年中年化回报率突破 160%，大幅碾压能源板块中位数基准。

---

[03:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=205s) MPLX 物流管网与一体化多元业务对冲波动

Nicole 随后探讨了 MPC 的商业模式壁垒。她指出，许多投资者对涉足大宗商品股票保持警惕，原因是油价波动极为剧烈。然而 MPC 拥有一个集炼油、通过 MPLX 开展的中游物流仓储、以及可再生柴油于一体的高度一体化商业网络。Nicole 询问量化模型如何看待这种多元化现金流结构在平抑短期大宗商品价格波动中的作用。

Emma Johnston 表示，投资者对纯大宗商品投资的顾虑完全合情合理，因为这并不适合所有风险偏好的资金。但 MPC 的非凡之处正在于其收入结构的韧性。过去一年国际原油价格大幅震荡，炼油裂解价差未来也无法永远保持在不可思议的高位。但 MPC 旗下的 MPLX 物流、管道与仓储资产具有稳定的收费模式，其收益几乎不受原油价格短期剧烈波动的负面影响。此外，公司布局的可再生柴油业务进一步强化了运营质量。正如 Emma 强调的那样：“However, when you do have this diversified revenue stream with things like the storage and distribution network or even renewable diesel, it does help augment the profitability and just operational quality of the company at hand. So I do think MPLX is really a great asset for the company and something that speaks to MPC's broader value proposition outside of other energy names.”

- **抗周期结构**：MPLX 旗下管道、仓储与分销网络提供稳定的合同制服务现金流，与油价现货波动脱钩。 - **业务对冲缓冲**：即使未来裂解价差面临回落，物流网络与可再生柴油依然能够兜底业绩下限。 - **竞争壁垒**：高度一体化的综合业务构成了 MPC 优于普通单一纯炼油企业的核心护城河。

---

[05:01](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=301s) 量化产品精选与 Alpha Picks 业绩表现

在节目收尾环节，Nicole 询问普通投资者如果希望更深入地研究 MPC 或获取类似的量化精选标的，有何途径与建议。

Emma Johnston 回应称，MPC 作为量化系统中的顶级标的，目前已被纳入 Seeking Alpha 全部三大核心量化投资组合之中，并且是旗舰选股产品 Alpha Picks 的最新调仓标的。Emma 阐释了 Alpha Picks 的极简运作逻辑：该产品每月仅向订户推送两只经量化算法严苛筛选、最具资本增值潜力的美股标的。她高度赞扬了该策略的实际回报表现，正如 Emma 所说：“The portfolio has a fantastic track record. Everyone should check it out. It's delivered upwards of 300% in just over four years, well above the S&P 500.”

节目最后，Nicole 感谢 Emma 代班 Steve 带来的专业剖析，并提醒观众关注 Emma 的量化研究主页，同时播发了标准金融免责声明：过往业绩不代表未来表现，视频内容仅供信息参考，所有参与者观点不代表官方投资建议，Seeking Alpha 亦不担任任何注册投资顾问或证券经纪人。

- **投资组合覆盖**：MPC 现已入选 Seeking Alpha 旗下全部三大量化策略投资组合。 - **Alpha Picks 机制**：量化模型每月只挑出 2 只高确定性、强资本升值潜力的个股。 - **策略跟踪业绩**：Alpha Picks 运营刚满四年多，累计净收益已突破 300%，大幅跑赢标普 500 指数。

## Notable quotes > [03:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=205s) I do think MPLX is really a great asset for the company and something that speaks to MPC's broader value proposition outside of other energy names. — Emma Johnston

> [03:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2?t=205s) when you do have this diversified revenue stream with things like the storage and distribution network or even renewable diesel, it does help augment the profitability and just operational quality of the company at hand. — Emma Johnston

## Mentioned Nicole Benjamin, Emma Johnston, Steve, Seeking Alpha, The Weekly Grade, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), MPLX, Alpha Picks, S&P 500

## Video description 【Seeking Alpha】量化精选：炼油巨头马拉松石油暴涨 Energy Surge： Why Emma Johnston Is Highlighting This Top Refining Giant

地缘政治摩擦重塑全球能源格局近期由于中东地缘政治摩擦加剧以及全球多地炼厂突发停机，导致国际原油供应链出现阶段性紧缩。在宏观环境扰动下，能源板块今年以来的整体表现在美股名列前茅。作为资深量化策略师，我发现在当前供应链危机下，下游炼油板块的盈利逻辑正在发生根本性转变，其中代表性炼油巨头马拉松石油（MPC）凭借独特的市场地位脱颖而出。

裂解价差与创纪录的盈利能力衡量炼油企业核心盈利能力的关键指标是“裂解价差”（Crack Spreads），即原油成本与柴油、航空煤油等终端精炼产品之间的价格差。受供应链紧张推动，当前高位裂解价差为下游炼油商创造了极为丰厚的利润空间。以马拉松石油为例，其庞大的精炼产品矩阵带来了强劲的现金流、健康的预期利润增长率以及卓越的市场动能。

量化评级与94%的极致产能利用率在量化评级体系中，马拉松石油被长期赋予“强力买入”评级，并在五个核心因子评分中有四个斩获“A”级以上评价。最引人注目的是其高达94%的炼厂产能利用率。这一数字完美印证了公司的顶级运营效率，直接转化为高达A+的盈利能力评分与A级的成长性评分，这也带动其一年内的年化回报率飙升超过160%，大幅跑赢能源板块中位数水平。

多元化业务布局构筑强力安全垫许多投资者对传统大宗商品投资心存顾忌，担心油价剧烈波动带来业绩崩盘。但MPC的绝佳之处在于其高度一体化的商业模式：除了核心炼油业务，它还通过旗下物流与仓储网络（MPLX）以及可再生柴油业务构建了多元化的收入来源。即使原油价格或裂解价差短期波动，稳定运行的物流仓储资产也能有效对冲商品价格下行风险，提供强大的业绩安全垫。

实操精选指南与投资策略关注裂解价差动态：投资炼油板块时，切勿只盯紧单一的原油价格，应将核心精力放在柴油和航煤裂解价差的变动趋势上。重视一体化现金流壁垒：在配置能源股时，优先挑选具备仓储、物流或中游变现能力、抗周期波动能力强的巨头企业（如MPC及MPLX）。结合量化评级分散配置：善用第三方量化工具评估资产的盈利质量、因子评级与产能利用率，避免单纯追逐概念而忽视企业真实运营效率。

简洁时间轴 [00:00] 栏目介绍与能源板块宏观背景 [00:54] 裂解价差飙升与炼油巨头盈利逻辑 [01:52] 94%产能利用率与量化A级因子评级 [03:25] 依托MPLX物流网抵御油价波动 [05:01] 量化产品精选与实操投资总结

[Source](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1eonA6WEe2)

中文简报

马拉松石油炼厂利用率达94% 裂解价差推升年化回报超160% 地缘冲突引发的精炼供给短缺推高裂解价差，马拉松石油依托极致运营效率与中游物流网络构筑对冲屏障，实现业绩与量化评级双重爆发。节目聚焦下游炼油龙头马拉松石油（MPC）的强劲增长逻辑。在原油供应链趋紧与裂解价差居高不下的宏观催化下，MPC以94%的极致产能利用率拉动了创纪录的现金流，并在盈利能力、成长性和动能等核心量化因子上斩获A级评价，过去一年年化回报率突破160%。同时，旗下MPLX中游物流仓储网络与可再生柴油业务有效平抑了大宗商品价格的周期性波动，展现出强大的防御韧性。凭借卓越的基本面与运营数据，MPC已被纳入Seeking Alpha全部三大量化投资组合及旗舰选股策略Alpha Picks。中东地缘摩擦与全球炼厂停机导致库存收紧，推动柴油及航煤裂解价差走高，能源板块年内涨幅稳居美股前列。 (0:00) 马拉松石油（MPC）炼厂产能利用率达94%，在Seeking Alpha量化体系中获“强力买入”评级，过去一年年化回报率突破160%。 (1:52) MPC依托旗下MPLX中游仓储物流管网及可再生柴油业务构建多元现金流，有效对冲油价与裂解价差的短期剧烈波动。 (3:25) MPC入选Seeking Alpha三大核心量化投资组合及旗舰策略Alpha Picks；该策略运作四年余累计回报超300%，显著跑赢标普500指数。 (5:01)

Reading summary

Seeking Alpha 高级量化策略师 Emma Johnston 指出，在地缘供给扰动推高裂解价差、炼厂运营效率达到 94% 以及 MPLX 中游资产平抑油价波动的多重支撑下，马拉松石油（Marathon Petroleum，MPC）呈现出突出的盈利韧性，并在量化评估系统中获得“强力买入”评级。供给收缩推高裂解价差与盈利动能 (0:00) Emma Johnston 解释称，受中东地缘政治紧张局势与全球炼油厂突发停机停产的叠加影响，全球原油与成品油库存持续偏紧。这一宏观环境显著推高了衡量精炼环节利润的核心指标——裂解价差（Crack Spreads）。柴油、航空煤油及石化精炼产品构成了 MPC 收入的大部分份额。高企的裂解价差使下游炼油企业在供给受限的环境中具备极强的议价权与利润弹性，进而将产品高溢价直接转化为创纪录的现金流与盈利动能。能源板块亦在此背景下位居美股年内涨幅前列。 94%产能利用率驱动量化因子表现 (1:52) 根据 Seeking Alpha 量化体系评估，MPC 获得综合“强力买入”（Strong Buy）评级，其五大核心量化因子中有四项达到 A 级或以上，其中盈利能力因子被评定为 A+，动能因子达 A+，成长性因子亦获评 A 级。 Johnston 强调，MPC 炼油厂高达 94% 的产能利用率是其精益管理和顶级运营卓越性的直接体现。高效的产能变现能力叠加分析师对盈利预期的持续上修，推动该股在过去一年实现超过 160% 的年化回报率，大幅跑赢能源板块的中位数水平。 MPLX中游资产对冲大宗商品周期波动 (3:25) 针对投资者对大宗商品价格剧烈波动的担忧，Johnston 阐明了 MPC 的业务护城河。尽管原油现货价格频繁震荡且裂解价差难以长期维持极值，但 MPC 旗下由 MPLX 运营的管道、仓储和分销网络采用了稳定的收费制服务模式。这种合同制现金流基本与短期原油价格脱钩，加上公司在可再生柴油等业务的拓展，形成了有效平抑周期下行波动的缓冲垫。一体化的多元化收入架构构筑了 MPC 区别于单一纯炼油企业的核心防御壁垒。量化组合覆盖与策略跟踪表现 (5:01) 在量化选股产品层面，MPC 目前已被纳入 Seeking Alpha 全部三大核心量化投资组合，同时也是其旗舰策略 Alpha Picks 的最新精选标的。该策略每月通过严苛量化算法仅筛选两只具备高资本升值潜力的个股。 Johnston 援引数据表示，Alpha Picks 策略在运营刚满四年多的时间内已斩获超过 300% 的累计回报率，显著超越标普 500 指数基准表现。分析指出，MPC 依靠极高的运营利用率与 MPLX 中游资产构建了抵御大宗周期下行的安全边际；但节目最后亦提示，大宗商品市场与炼厂裂解价差未来仍存变数，过往业绩并不构成对未来表现的担保。

精炼阅读摘要

Seeking Alpha 高级量化策略师 Emma Johnston 指出，在地缘政治紧张推高裂解价差与高产能利用率的支撑下，Marathon Petroleum（MPC）展现出强劲盈利能力，并凭借一体化中游资产有效对冲了大宗商品价格的周期性波动。地缘冲击与裂解价差走高增厚利润 (0:00) 中东地区的地缘政治摩擦加剧了全球供应链的脆弱性，叠加全球范围内炼油厂意外停产以及库存水平偏紧，直接推动了原油与终端精炼产品之间的裂解价差升至历史高位。能源板块因此在年内美股涨幅排行榜中稳居前两位。Emma Johnston 解释称，精炼柴油、航空煤油及石化产品占据了 MPC 收入结构的大部分份额。当下游精炼企业在供给收紧的环境中获得更强的议价权时，裂解价差的扩张直接转化为公司创纪录的现金流增长与盈利动能。高产能利用率驱动量化因子全线走优 (1:52) 在运营执行层面，MPC 的炼油厂产能利用率达到了 94%，Emma Johnston 认为这一指标直接体现了重资产工业制造中的顶级运营效率与管理水平。这种设备全负荷运转带来的产能变现能力，迅速反映在该股的量化评级系统中：Seeking Alpha 给予其“强力买入”综合评级，其五大核心量化因子中有四项达到 A 级或以上，其中盈利能力和动能因子均评为 A+，成长性因子亦获评 A 级。在分析师调高业绩预期与市场动能共振下，该股过去一年的年化回报率突破 160%，远高于能源板块的中位数表现。 MPLX 物流网络平抑周期性价格波动 (3:25) 针对大宗商品天然的高波动风险，MPC 通过集炼油、中游物流以及可再生柴油于一体的商业布局构筑了竞争壁垒。Nicole Benjamin 指出，原油现货与裂解价差未来难以长期维持极端高位。Emma Johnston 强调，公司旗下 MPLX 的管道、仓储与分销网络采用稳定的收费商业模式，其现金流与短期油价波动基本脱钩。这种合同制中游资产结合可再生柴油业务，不仅提升了公司整体资产质量，也为炼油利润下行周期提供了托底缓冲，构成不同于单一炼油企业的抗风险护城河。入选旗舰量化策略与历史收益追踪 (5:01) 由于量化评分表现优异，MPC 目前已被纳入 Seeking Alpha 旗下的全部三大核心量化投资组合，并成为其旗舰选股服务 Alpha Picks 的最新调仓标的。该策略采用严苛算法每月仅筛选出两只具备资本增值潜力的美股个股。Emma Johnston 表示，Alpha Picks 在过去四年多的实际运营中取得了超过 300% 的累计净收益，明显跑赢标普 500 指数基准。尽管 MPC 展现出一流的运营效率与多元化防御结构，但裂解价差无法永远维持历史极值，公司的长期盈利能力仍受制于原油市场周期的再平衡。此外，节目声明 Alpha Picks 的历史收益不代表未来表现，相关量化分析亦不构成注册投资建议。

Source quotes

[3:25] Emma Johnston: I do think MPLX is really a great asset for the company and something that speaks to MPC's broader value proposition outside of other energy names. [3:25] Emma Johnston: when you do have this diversified revenue stream with things like the storage and distribution network or even renewable diesel, it does help augment the profitability and just operational quality of the company at hand.

Original transcript

[0:00] Hey everyone, it's Nicole Benjamin, your host here at Seeking Alpha to bring to you another episode of the Weekly Grade for Market Insights in Minutes. Now Steve is out for today, so joining us is none other than Emma Johnson, our Senior Quantitative Strategist here at Seeking Alpha. She has over 10 years of experience and knows a lot about quant, so we are so lucky to have her. Thank you so much, Emma, for joining us today. Thank you so much, Nicole. I'm thrilled to be here. Absolutely. Now, I want to jump right in. We're going to be talking about MPC today. That is Marathon Petroleum and specifically about the energy sector as a whole. Now, on this slide, I see that there's just a lot happening. There's geopolitical friction and just tight global inventories that are repricing the entire energy sector. So with that in mind, how does the quant model evaluate the downstream refining market during supply chain disruptions? Nicole, it has been a wild time for energy markets. I believe it is either the best or second best performing sector year to date. And that is, of course, as a result of the geopolitical friction we've seen coming out of the Middle East that has caused major supply disruptions, as well as broader refinery outages. And what that has done, has created an environment for downstream energy companies that has resulted in elevated crack spreads and that is actually the differential between the price of crude oil and what the final end product is and so in the case of MPC we've got diesel we've got jet fuel and a number of other refined petrochemicals that makes up the bulk of their revenue base. And this has contributed to higher profitability, higher expected future growth, as well as stronger momentum for a group of energy stocks. And MPC has been one major beneficiary of this environment. Well, looking at slide four, I want to talk about how MPC has been given a strong buy rating by our site, and it's even gotten an A rating within four out of the five factor grades. So how does how does the system weigh its high 94 percent refinery utilization and flag it as a top rated energy selection? Yeah, so that utilization rate is really evidence of the company's operational excellence, is how I would phrase it, right? If you have 94% of your assets operating in full tilt, that's pretty good for you. And it speaks to your strengths as an operator. And so that has contributed to both profitability for MPC, which is an A+. It contributes to higher expected earnings growth, which feeds into the company's growth grade, which stands at an A. as analysts do deep dives onto these companies and see a stock like a 94% utilization rate really points to operational excellence and they might take their earnings revisions upward. And that really all feeds into momentum, which is also an A plus for the company. So when you have this investor confidence coupled with sector tailwinds converge, which is the case for MPC, you see that delivered upwards of 160% per year over the last year, I mean, and that is well above the energy sector median. really all great attributes for the company at hand. Now, speaking of Marathon Petroleum, They just have this integrated business model that's spanning refining and logistics through MPLX and even just renewable diesel. So from a quantitative perspective, how does this diversified cash flow structure kind of help insulate the stock's factor grades from that short term commodity price swing? Yeah, it's a great question. And I think folks can be rightly averse to commodity investing. And, you know, of course, it's not going to suit everyone's investment style. But what sets MPC apart is they do have this diversified set of revenue streams, which, you know, we've seen the price of crude really fluctuate quite a bit over the last year. storage network for MPC. And that is not likely to be affected by the price of crude. And so when you have this kind of more constant revenue stream to offset the the fluctuations we may see in crack spreads for a marathon, that this elevated margin environment isn't necessarily going to persist in perpetuity. However, when you do have this diversified revenue stream with things like the storage and distribution network or even renewable diesel, it does help augment the profitability and just operational quality of the company at hand. So I do think MPLX is really a great asset for the company and something that speaks to NPCs. broader value proposition outside of other energy names. OK. [5:00] Before we get out of here, Emma, if anybody wants to do a deep dive into MPC and, you know, learn more. Is there any where you might recommend or just some tips? Yeah, absolutely. MPC is a fantastic name and it's been incorporated across all three of Quant's portfolios, but it's the actual latest edition of AlphaPix. And AlphaPix is a really beautifully simple product. It provides two stock picks on a monthly basis. These are selected by the model and they demonstrate the highest potential for capital appreciation. The portfolio has a fantastic track record. Everyone should check it out. It's delivered upwards of 300% in just over four years. well above the S&P 500. And like I said, the simplicity of the portfolio is part of its beauty. It's a really fantastic product. So folks should check it out. Well, thank you so much, Emma, for joining us today and filling in for Steve. But for everybody that's listening in, make sure you read up on MPC, look into AlphaPixi, if that might be right for your portfolio and give Emma a follow. She's got a lot of great insights and we'll catch you here next time on another episode. Thank you so much. past performance is no guarantee of future results content is offered for information purposes only unless stated otherwise any and all individuals participating in the video are third parties that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body unless stated otherwise the views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of seeking alpha as a whole the accuracy and completeness of content shared cannot be guaranteed seeking alpha does not take account of your objectives or financial dealer, broker, U.S. investment advisor, or investment bank. And we'll catch you here next time.