- 策略主基调：过去数周以持有现金（Cash）和空头对冲（Shorts）为主，首要目标是回撤控制。
- 市场特征：标普 500 指数（S&P 500）尚未出现剧烈破位，整体仍维持在区间震荡（Range-bound consolidation）结构中，但底层个股分化极度严重。
- 核心论点：“It isn't just a simple case of being bullish or bearish, or predicting a specific price level or time as the 'bottom.' It requires a sophisticated approach based on various conditions.”（现在绝不是非牛即熊那么简单，也不是猜一个具体点位或时间作为‘底’，而是需要根据各种条件去构建复杂的应对方案。）
这种“左手倒右手”的跨期财务安排，导致支出（Expenditure）被拉长到多年分摊，而收入（Revenue）却在短期几个季度内被集中透支与确认。这造成了账面利润看似极其强劲、动态估值看似偏低的错觉。一旦后续终端 AI 应用的商业化落地、真实营收或现金流增长不及预期，美股将面临极为致命的“双杀”局面——既承受每股收益预期的下修，又遭受估值倍数（P/E 乘数）的收缩惩罚。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: AI Accounting Timeline Mismatch
accDescr: Visualizing how rapid revenue recognition and delayed depreciation create an artificial valuation illusion.
- 警惕低估值陷阱：“Do not go long just because things look 'cheap' here; it is not a valid reason to open a long position.”（千万不要仅仅因为这里看起来‘便宜’就去做多，便宜从来不是开多仓的合逻辑理由。）
- 会计实质：收入加速前置，成本与折旧后置，两者处于完全错开的时间轨道上。
- 监控因子：高收益债利差、美元走强压力、长短端美债倒挂与利差变动。
- 跨资产特征：强美元、高原油、法债羸弱、新兴市场流动性被虹吸。
- 应对纪律：“Most importantly, in such high-risk conditions, don't rush to 'buy the dip.' Many people are anxious to buy at the bottom, but they often end up catching a 'falling knife' just below the peak rather than at the base.”（最重要的是，在这样的高风险状态下，千万不要急着去抄底。很多人急不可耐地想买在最底部，结果往往不是接在山脚，而是精准接在半山腰下坠的飞刀上。）
[11:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=693s) Market Divergence and Goldman Sachs’ Two-Path Framework
Trading an intense internal rotation is often far more difficult and punishing than navigating a straightforward broad-market sell-off. In a general panic, asset prices drop universally, which strips away ambiguity and creates clear buying opportunities. As the speaker explains: “For me, if the market experiences a significant correction or widespread panic, I don't see it as a negative; instead, I view it as an opportunity.” By contrast, the current market is defined by high internal volatility and sharp divergence: macro liquidity continues to tighten as evidenced by widening credit spreads, yet price action remains fragmented across different sectors.
To evaluate this divergence, the speaker references Goldman Sachs’ latest market assessment, which outlines two potential paths for how this split could resolve, framing it as roughly a 70/30 probability split:
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Market Divergence Scenarios
accDescr: Two potential paths for market evolution based on sector divergence and large-cap tech behavior.
subgraph SG1 ["Path 1: 70% Likelihood"]
PathA --> P1_Action["Weak Sectors Play Catch-Up<br/>(Small Caps, Financials, Consumer)"]
PathA --> P1_Index["Mega-Cap Tech Drags Index Lower<br/>(Breadth Improves Internally)"]
end
subgraph SG2 ["Path 2: 30% Likelihood"]
PathB --> P2_Action["2015-Style Fast Deleveraging"]
PathB --> P2_Index["Tech Giants Break Support<br/>(Triggers Sharp Capitulation / Golden Pit)"]
end
```
- **Path 1 (70% probability - Rotational catch-up):** Heavyweights in the semiconductor and technology sectors pull back substantially, while previously beaten-down segments—such as consumer stocks, small-cap financials, and smaller tech names—stage a broad-based rebound. Although major tech leaders drag the benchmark index lower, internal market breadth actually improves under the surface.
- **Path 2 (30% probability - 2015-style rapid breakdown):** Resembling the sudden, divergence-driven sell-off seen in 2015, small-cap indices like the Russell 2000 (IWM) cannot simply rally straight up after significant declines. Instead, choppy consolidation in small caps gives way as mega-cap leaders finally break, dragging down the entire market in a rapid, synchronized decline.
---
[14:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=888s) Playbook Execution: The "Golden Pit" Sell-Off vs. Equal-Weight Breadth Reversal
Because the market faces these two distinct paths, traders need two pre-planned operational playbooks. The first scenario—a full breakdown led by mega-cap technology—is ironically easier to manage. If market leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple finally succumb to downside catch-up while small-cap stocks stall, the market will print an aggressive, wide-range bearish candle. Far from being a catastrophe, a swift breakdown creates a prime seasonal buying opportunity. The speaker points out that the calendar creates an asymmetrical advantage: “Therefore, our real window for a decline is just this period, meaning about two to three weeks left.” Because November and December historically exhibit seasonal strength—even during severe bear market years such as 2008—any intense panic over the next two to three weeks forms an ideal "golden pit" for entry before midterms and year-end trading.
Bottom-fishing this capitulation requires objective panic signals rather than guesswork:
- **Equity Put/Call Ratio (CPC):** Spikes into the 1.4 to 1.7 range indicate capitulation and panic hedging.
- **Volatility (VIX):** A sharp breakout in the VIX serves as another confirming catalyst to buy small-cap stocks and select oversold individual names.
The alternative scenario is an equal-weight breakout where the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) steadily outperforms market-cap-weighted indices. If RSP continues pushing upward, traders should disregard benchmark index fluctuations entirely and instead focus exclusively on individual technical breakouts. By tracking daily stock scans and observing the volume of actionable setups, traders can gauge true underlying market participation and patiently trade names with confirming price structure.
---
[18:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=1080s) Goldman Sachs Research: Deleveraging Dynamics, Capital Cushions, and Proprietary Risk Scoring
Synthesizing institutional research from Goldman Sachs analyst views on the AI ecosystem, strong fundamentals alone have proved insufficient to support stock prices. While companies such as Lam Research and TSMC delivered solid earnings results, investor expectations have become excessively demanding. The current pullback is characterized not as a structural collapse, but as a mandatory technical deleveraging event following extreme multi-month runs in semiconductor and memory stocks. Bullish leverage is being aggressively flushed out, but that capital is in no hurry to re-enter.
A notable shift has occurred in market psychology: during June and July, market participants still held substantial year-to-date profit buffers that allowed them to absorb wide swings. Over recent weeks, however, private accounts have sustained heavy drawdowns even while benchmark headline numbers remained relatively elevated. Combined with rising political uncertainty around elections and ongoing global dollar liquidity drainage, the structural backdrop remains fragile.
- **Favored Sectors:** Goldman Sachs identifies large-scale platform companies, transport platforms, and cybersecurity as the most resilient setups should macro liquidity and financing conditions stabilize.
- **Proprietary Risk Scoring Model:** The speaker monitors a proprietary risk model ("Race cloud") built on eight distinct sub-models. When more than four models are triggered, the indicator shifts to red. The current reading sits at elevated levels of three to four, keeping risk high on the warning track.
- **Indicator Color Signals:** A yellow/orange signal reflects elevated aggregate market risk where capital preservation is paramount, while a purple reading designates an ideal market bottom and an aggressive buying window.
谈到美债配置，主讲人重申自己此前分享的操作是直接买入长久期美债现券，具体购买的是 2036 年 8 月到期的美国国债。然而很多投资者依然热衷于交易 TLT，甚至使用三倍做多美债的杠杆 ETF（如 TMF）进行超短线博弈。主讲人直言，在这种剧烈的波动行情中，追逐短期杠杆极易遭受重创：“For example, as I told everyone, if you add leverage to TLT right here, the potential losses could be significant.”
主讲人强调，未来几年美股大盘的平均年化回报率很可能连 5% 都达不到，因此一个 5% 的无风险收益率已经非常优秀，根本不存在所谓“在 5% 上方被套”的概念。许多上班族在投资中最大的敌人是浮躁与急于赚快钱的心态：“People are just too impatient and too focused on making quick money. So, if you aren't looking to get rich quick, a yield of around 5% is a very good opportunity.” 当前市场和实体经济根本无法在极长时间内承受如此高企的通胀，因此从中长期趋势来看，美债依然具备极强的配置价值。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: McDonald's Core Business Challenges
accDescr: Three main structural bottlenecks preventing McDonald's stock from becoming an attractive buy.
subgraph Costs ["成本端压力 (Cost Pressures)"]
A["地缘局势推高化肥成本"] --> B["农产品与食品期货上涨"]
C["厄尔尼诺与物流隐患"] --> B
end
subgraph BusinessModel ["经营与分配 (Franchise Model)"]
B --> D["原材料成本挤压利润"]
D --> E["总部截留利润 / 削减加盟商分成"]
end
subgraph Macro ["K型消费断层 (K-Shaped Economy)"]
E --> F["底层大众消费力枯竭"]
F --> G["无法继续大幅提价转嫁成本"]
G --> H["营收增长受限，拒绝盲目抄底"]
end
```
回顾莫德纳（MRNA）的走势，主讲人揭露了主力资金利用癌症药物题材出货的恶劣手法：机构在核心临床数据正式公布前，刻意通过所谓“内部报告泄露”来营造市场狂热，从而掩护主力资金进行最后阶段的集中出逃：“I told everyone this is the final wave for unloading, and the way they're doing it is disgusting—they used a 'leaked' report right before the data release to create a massive hype exit for the funds.”
针对观众问及 SpaceX 是否能跌到 30 美元并带有一丝嘲讽意味的提问，主讲人澄清：随着 SpaceX 最新财报与经营数据的披露，其合理估值可能已经提升到了 50 或 60 美元，但自己设定目标价并不是在“预言”股价一定会跌到该位置，而是将其作为自己左侧交易被动触发的安全防线：“It doesn't mean I predict it will definitely reach 30, but rather that my trade will be triggered when it hits 30. If it doesn't reach it, it doesn't matter.”
主讲人形象地将专业交易员比作荒野中的猎人：“As hunters, we don't have to hunt rabbits; we can hunt deer, bears, or go fishing. We have many ways to make money in the market, and that is what I really, really want to emphasize.” 市场上存在大量的短线波段与不同资产的机会，交易员的核心职责是在风险可控的前提下捕获利润，绝不需要在单一一档股票上死磕或进行强迫交易（Forced trades）。
[32:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=1936s) Trading Mindset and the November Bradley Model Window
Navigating the market in the current environment carries a high degree of trading difficulty, which makes psychological discipline and emotional composure far more critical than raw technical setups. Many retail participants fall prey to severe anxiety and an urgent rush to generate immediate profits. While that desire is understandable, the host cautions that consistent market gains are never effortless, remarking pointedly: “If everyone could make money in the market so easily, who would still go to work?” Rather than forcing low-probability trades out of impatience, traders need to step back, allow price structures to develop, and monitor defined cyclical pivot dates where trend changes and volatility expansions tend to cluster.
To establish a roadmap, the host references a cycle turn based on the Bradley model around November 15th. Acknowledging that cyclical models often sound unconventional to traditional technicians, the host quips: “So if you say I'm making it up, just take it as entertainment.” The host highlights that a minor cycle date falls in November, meaning elevated volatility could easily persist through the week following the November midterm elections. Currently, the broader market remains trapped within an extended sideways consolidation range. If price continues to oscillate and digest overhead supply within this base, a decisive breakout to the upside would unlock an exceptional swing-trading opportunity for the fourth quarter. While calculating exact pivot timing with pure mathematical certainty is impossible, cycle markers provide helpful guideposts; the host notes that the previous volatility cycle point occurred back in late June, with October 15th and mid-November framing the next critical windows of interest.
- **Mindset discipline**: Avoid rushing to trade out of impatience or anxiety; market returns require waiting for clear structural setups.
- **Key cyclical date**: Bradley model cycle targets around November 15th, following the volatility window surrounding the midterm election week.
- **Market structure**: The broad indices remain within a prolonged consolidation; an eventual upside resolution out of this range represents the primary trade setup to watch in Q4.
- **Comparative timeline**: The prior major volatility turn occurred in late June, leading into the autumn turn dates spanning mid-October to mid-November.
---
[33:48](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=2028s) Community Discipline, Daily Updates, and No Hindsight Trading
Wrapping up the analysis, the host emphasizes the importance of transparent, continuous trade tracking rather than retroactively tailoring narratives after market moves have already played out. Daily analysis is shared within the Discord community regardless of whether the prevailing thesis leans bullish or bearish. Reviewing the markets every single day—whether previous calls turned out right or wrong—serves as an ongoing log of a trader’s genuine thought process and risk management framework.
The priority remains delivering timely perspective at major structural junctures so members are prepared before market swings materialize. Stressing the philosophy that underpins all of the channel's commentary, the host firmly states: “Moreover, my views are never based on hindsight.” Even during intervals when full-length video deep dives are not published, active situational updates, key level monitoring, and trade notes continue uninterrupted on the community platform.
## Notable quotes
> [04:25](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=265s) Many people are anxious to buy at the bottom, but they often end up catching a 'falling knife' just below the peak rather than at the base.
> [01:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=90s) Do not go long just because things look 'cheap' here; it is not a valid reason to open a long position.
> [21:51](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=1311s) People are just too impatient and too focused on making quick money. So, if you aren't looking to get rich quick, a yield of around 5% is a very good opportunity.
> [11:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=693s) For me, if the market experiences a significant correction or widespread panic, I don't see it as a negative; instead, I view it as an opportunity.
> [29:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xb1ZTyxTD6U&t=1755s) As hunters, we don't have to hunt rabbits; we can hunt deer, bears, or go fishing. We have many ways to make money in the market, and that is what I really, really want to emphasize.
## Video description
本期《交易之刃 / Finding Your Edge》周复盘聚焦当前美股的资金轮动与未来 2–3 周的风险控制。我们从收入确认、未来折旧和资本开支的时间差出发，拆解 AI 公司 Forward P/E 可能形成的估值错觉；同时结合美元、原油、法国与日本国债及风险资产，判断宏观流动性收紧的信号，并讨论高 Gross Leverage、低 Net Leverage 下的对冲基金去杠杆。
免责声明：
我的视频仅为个人经验分享， 不是投资建议！凡是在视频出现的观点和个股的分析仅仅代表我个人的看法。投资需要谨慎，小心。
DISCLAIMER: Please note that I do not ask for any information. I always encourage you to trade ONLY what you understand and never based on anyone's opinion. My videos are for entertainment purposes only. any questions message me as I would love to be a part of your success.
[4:25] Many people are anxious to buy at the bottom, but they often end up catching a 'falling knife' just below the peak rather than at the base.
[1:30] Do not go long just because things look 'cheap' here; it is not a valid reason to open a long position.
[21:51] People are just too impatient and too focused on making quick money. So, if you aren't looking to get rich quick, a yield of around 5% is a very good opportunity.
[11:33] For me, if the market experiences a significant correction or widespread panic, I don't see it as a negative; instead, I view it as an opportunity.
[29:15] As hunters, we don't have to hunt rabbits; we can hunt deer, bears, or go fishing. We have many ways to make money in the market, and that is what I really, really want to emphasize.
Original transcript
[0:00] Hello everyone, welcome back to "The
[0:01] Edge of Trading," where we sharpen our
[0:03] tools for US stock market success. This
[0:05] week, we are going to analyze the
[0:06] current situation of the market
[0:08] together. First, we will look into the
[0:11] reasons behind the market's recent
[0:13] decline. More importantly, we will
[0:16] analyze the potential market trajectory
[0:18] moving forward. I will use key data and
[0:21] research reports from Goldman Sachs to
[0:24] discuss how we should navigate future
[0:26] trends. As you know, it has been a
[0:29] while since our last update. I have
[0:32] actually been sharing my views in our
[0:33] private community. This is because we
[0:37] have been focusing on risk management,
[0:40] primarily holding cash and short
[0:41] positions, so I chose to avoid public
[0:43] discussion and stick to our private
[0:45] group. Now that the market has fallen
[0:49] for a period, or rather, we are seeing
[0:51] significant sector rotation, our
[0:53] subsequent strategy is actually quite
[0:55] complex. I went through a vast amount
[0:58] of data and reports over the weekend,
[1:00] and I believe the first concept we must
[1:02] grasp is that we are facing a very
[1:04] complex market environment. So, if you
[1:08] have the patience today, please listen
[1:10] as I walk through the entire logic. It
[1:14] isn't just a simple case of being
[1:16] bullish or bearish, or predicting a
[1:18] specific price level or time as the "
[1:20] bottom." It requires a sophisticated
[1:24] approach based on various conditions.
[1:28] If you enjoy this, don't forget to like
[1:30] and subscribe, and let's get started.
[1:33] Alright, let's start with some
[1:34] misconceptions I've noticed recently.
[1:36] One is that everyone is being overly
[1:38] bearish at this point. Looking at the
[1:40] current trend, while your specific
[1:42] holdings might have dropped
[1:44] significantly, indicating deep
[1:46] polarization within the market, if we
[1:48] look at the S&P 500, it hasn't really
[1:50] started to fall or hasn't dropped much;
[1:52] it is still in a range-bound
[1:54] consolidation phase. Another idea I
[1:57] want to share is that many people here
[2:00] claim US stock valuations are very low,
[2:02] and will become even lower after
[2:04] earnings season. This reflects a
[2:08] stronger expectation for future EPS,
[2:10] meaning the market anticipates
[2:11] continued revenue growth for these
[2:13] companies. I’d like to share my
[2:16] perspective here on why US stock
[2:18] valuations currently appear so low, or
[2:20] why they seem relatively inexpensive—
[2:22] is it really because of the orders
[2:24] you’ve promised for the future? In
[2:26] reality, a significant portion of that
[2:28] capital has already been accounted for
[2:29] in our current financial reports under
[2:31] accounting standards. In other words,
[2:33] many semiconductor companies have
[2:35] already factored current orders into
[2:37] their financial statements, and when
[2:39] they report revenue growth, they’ve
[2:41] already front-loaded those future
[2:42] orders. However, on the expenditure
[2:49] side, these major tech groups are
[2:51] essentially using debt or specific
[2:53] accounting methods to stretch out
[2:55] depreciation and liabilities over a
[2:57] longer timeline, moving money between
[2:59] their left and right hands. The reality
[3:07] is that many of your expenditures and
[3:09] revenues are not actually on the same
[3:11] timeline. This means the pace of
[3:13] expenditure is spread out over many
[3:15] years, while the revenue is being
[3:17] recognized much more quickly, over
[3:19] these recent quarters. That is why we
[3:22] see overall US stock profits appearing
[3:25] to grow significantly, while the
[3:27] overall valuations look relatively low.
[3:31] So, I want to warn everyone: if you
[3:33] simply look at a fixed P/E ratio to
[3:35] estimate the value of US stocks, you
[3:38] might encounter some discrepancies.
[3:43] Moreover, if any issues arise regarding
[3:45] AI-related revenue or cash flow, the
[3:48] entire market could face a significant
[3:50] "double whammy." This would involve
[3:56] both a decline in valuation
[3:58] expectations and a contraction of the P
[4:01] /E ratio itself, creating a dual-sided
[4:03] correction. Therefore, I must warn you:
[4:08] do not go long just because things look
[4:10] "cheap" here; it is not a valid reason
[4:13] to open a long position. Another point
[4:16] I’d like to share with you concerns
[4:18] macroeconomic information. Looking at
[4:21] this macro data, we can see trends in
[4:23] oil prices, French debt, the Japanese
[4:26] yen, and the overall market risk.
[4:28] Anyway, setting aside the overall risk
[4:30] for a moment, let’s look at this
[4:32] green line below. So, for this green
[4:35] line, I basically use junk bond spreads
[4:37] , some USD data, the yield spread
[4:39] between long-term and short-term bonds,
[4:42] as well as a few other models. What am
[4:45] I trying to simulate overall? I'm
[4:47] simulating whether the current market
[4:49] liquidity is tight. As you can see,
[4:53] regardless of the USD appreciation—
[4:55] which has been significant recently—
[4:58] the dollar remains very firm, and oil
[5:00] prices are also very high. You see, the
[5:03] dollar is trending very strongly and
[5:06] oil prices are quite high. Then, French
[5:08] government bonds are performing very
[5:10] weakly, while the yen is relatively
[5:12] stronger. You can see Japanese bonds
[5:14] have been performing well lately,
[5:16] meaning yields have moved downward. So,
[5:18] what does this behavior of the yen,
[5:20] Japanese bonds, the dollar, and U.S.
[5:22] Treasuries actually reflect? It
[5:25] reflects that we are currently facing a
[5:27] temporary liquidity shortage, which is
[5:29] also being mirrored in emerging markets
[5:31] . Markets in places like Southeast Asia
[5:36] have already experienced, for example,
[5:38] a very powerful "blood-sucking" effect
[5:41] on EM. So, the first point we are
[5:44] facing overall is that we are actually
[5:46] seeing a tightening of liquidity on the
[5:48] macro level. This compares to the
[5:51] pullback we saw back in July, or this
[5:54] specific pullback we had in July. In
[5:58] comparison, looking at the
[5:59] macroeconomic environment, you can see
[6:01] our macro risk control indicator during
[6:03] this pullback. Let me adjust it
[6:05] slightly; I'll switch it back to the S&
[6:07] P 500 in a moment. This round of
[6:09] decline is also led by the Nasdaq,
[6:11] while the S&P 500 has actually fallen
[6:13] relatively less. Overall, the
[6:16] consolidation zone we are facing is
[6:18] marked by the yellow line, and the
[6:20] liquidity here is relatively good. From
[6:25] a risk management perspective, the
[6:27] macro risks we face are worth sharing,
[6:29] and we update this chart daily. Let me
[6:34] share how to use it: I have three
[6:36] models here—the yellow light, the
[6:38] bars, and the liquidity indicator. When
[6:44] liquidity is very poor, or in this "
[6:46] raacef" state where the market is weak,
[6:49] we try not to open long positions,
[6:51] avoid breakout trades, and steer clear
[6:53] of emotion-based trading. Most
[6:58] importantly, in such high-risk
[7:00] conditions, don't rush to "buy the dip.
[7:02] " Many people are anxious to buy at the
[7:07] bottom, but they often end up catching
[7:09] a "falling knife" just below the peak
[7:11] rather than at the base. So, looking at
[7:17] our current position compared to last
[7:19] time, although the patterns are similar
[7:21] , the internal structure and the macro
[7:23] risk profile we see are actually better
[7:25] . Another point, which I'm sure many of
[7:29] you have already seen explained by
[7:31] others, is why the market is
[7:33] experiencing such violent fluctuations
[7:35] right now. It mainly stems from the
[7:38] macro level, specifically what we call
[7:40] hedge funds. You can think of hedge
[7:44] funds as, let’s say, "institutional
[7:46] retail investors" in quotes; they are
[7:48] primarily driven by pair trading. You
[7:54] can see that their overall leverage is
[7:56] extremely high, reaching the 80th to
[7:58] 90th percentile over the last five
[8:00] years. So, what does this mean? It
[8:06] means that while these hedge funds hold
[8:09] massive positions, we see their net
[8:10] leverage—which is what we look at
[8:12] later—has actually dropped to the 1st
[8:15] percentile. What does that imply? It
[8:21] means that through this round of
[8:22] pullbacks or declines, we can identify
[8:25] the current market trend. It’s that a
[8:28] large number of hedge funds were making
[8:30] massive, aggressive bets. I have
[8:31] already shared this data with you: they
[8:33] were betting on semiconductors. So,
[8:35] what is the current focus of the bets
[8:37] being placed? Betting on the big
[8:39] players, the M7, the seven major US
[8:41] tech stocks. Where are they
[8:43] aggressively pouring their capital into
[8:45] ? Tech companies. And paired with that,
[8:48] we have the consumer giants. As you can
[8:51] see, the recent strong rebounds have
[8:53] been in consumer-related stocks. We see
[8:58] a lot of economic data showing weakness
[9:00] , so logically you'd think consumer
[9:02] stocks shouldn't perform well, but they
[9:05] are actually very strong because many
[9:07] were heavily shorted, making them a
[9:09] perfect pair for the tech sector. This
[9:15] also involves the trend of Treasury
[9:17] yields. We can see that if the 10-year
[9:23] Treasury yield keeps climbing, who does
[9:25] it primarily affect? It exerts much
[9:29] more downward pressure on overall
[9:31] consumer or traditional stocks than it
[9:33] does on tech stocks. So, this has
[9:37] become a very crowded trade, and I want
[9:39] to share something I discussed a while
[9:41] back, which perhaps even our group
[9:43] members didn't fully grasp, even though
[9:46] I've talked about it a lot here. It's
[9:52] because we aren't in a situation where
[9:54] everyone is betting on a bull market;
[9:56] rather, we are seeing people pack into
[9:58] specific sectors with heavy long
[10:00] positions. Since we are generally in a
[10:06] bearish position, the result isn't
[10:08] necessarily a crash, but rather that
[10:10] the crowded long positions in the
[10:12] overall market are facing selling
[10:14] pressure, as seen by six out of the
[10:16] last seven days having massive
[10:18] sell-offs and capital outflows.
[10:23] Meanwhile, those shorted sectors are
[10:25] seeing some short covering, so with the
[10:28] market percentile at 1%and leverage
[10:30] very high, could this be a relative
[10:32] bottom? In terms of the growth phase,
[10:36] we can view this as a relatively
[10:38] bullish signal. I'd like to share
[10:43] another piece of data to support this
[10:45] view, looking at both the M7 index and
[10:47] the NO index, both of which are
[10:49] actually quite bullish. And if we go
[10:55] back to the RSPP, it's still primarily
[10:58] bullish, following an AB-wave trend. So
[11:02] , what is driving the entire market?
[11:05] Let's look at the weekly timeframe.
[11:09] Opening up the chart, we can see that
[11:11] last week was actually extremely
[11:13] volatile. You wouldn't think the market
[11:18] was particularly weak, but individual
[11:20] stocks were seeing massive gains or
[11:22] massive losses, resulting in a very
[11:24] intense rotation overall. Faced with
[11:29] this kind of market—a monthly view—
[11:31] we are dealing with highly volatile
[11:33] rotation, which actually makes it even
[11:35] harder to trade than a broad market
[11:37] decline or a general sell-off. It
[11:40] remains a relatively difficult market
[11:42] environment, which is why we updated
[11:44] you on one of the key risks a few weeks
[11:46] ago. For me, if the market experiences
[11:51] a significant correction or widespread
[11:53] panic, I don't see it as a negative;
[11:56] instead, I view it as an opportunity.
[12:03] On the contrary, the market we are
[12:05] currently facing is one with high
[12:07] internal volatility and intense
[12:09] internal rotation, which makes it a
[12:11] much more challenging environment for
[12:13] us. Furthermore, as we've discussed, we
[12:18] are seeing signs like the credit spread
[12:20] , which reflects the macro tightening
[12:22] of overall liquidity. Now, let's move
[12:26] on to the fourth point, which is
[12:28] sharing Goldman Sachs 'assessment on
[12:30] this matter. So, what is their take?
[12:35] It’s that the market we are currently
[12:37] facing is one of strong divergence, and
[12:39] to handle such a market, there are two
[12:41] potential trends to consider. What is
[12:44] the first trend? The first trend is the
[12:48] massive decline we are seeing now,
[12:50] particularly with the semiconductor or
[12:52] tech sectors pulling back significantly
[12:55] , while some consumer, small-cap
[12:57] financial, or smaller tech stocks that
[12:59] fell previously——and were down by a
[13:01] large margin, are now seeing a
[13:03] large-scale rebound. In other words,
[13:07] stocks that fell significantly in the
[13:09] past are catching up, while these large
[13:12] tech giants are dragging down the index
[13:14] . They have experienced a rotational
[13:16] decline during this period, meaning
[13:18] sectors that were previously strong are
[13:20] falling, while weaker sectors are
[13:22] playing catch-up; the latter part of
[13:24] last week actually confirmed this logic
[13:26] . So we also see the Nasdaq is
[13:28] certainly trending lower, right? It’s
[13:30] been breaking lines from 31,000 to
[13:32] 29,000, which is actually a 6-7%drop,
[13:35] right? And when we look at its breadth,
[13:37] or the overall market internal, it’s
[13:39] actually strengthening; it’s really
[13:41] following this logic. So this might be
[13:43] a 70/30 split; I’m telling you it’s
[13:46] a 70/30 split. So, what would the "30"
[13:49] be? It’s that at this position, many
[13:52] small individual stocks—including
[13:54] small-cap tech and small-cap
[13:56] semiconductors—have fallen
[13:57] significantly, so for our large-cap
[13:59] tech or large-cap semiconductor leaders
[14:02] , as the whole market trends downward,
[14:04] it’s a bit like what happened in 2015
[14:06] , appearing as what? Appearing as a
[14:09] relatively rapid sell-off, a divergence
[14:11] turning into what we call a more
[14:13] bearish case. It’s just that these
[14:15] small stocks, as we see now with IWM,
[14:17] might be showing signs of a rebound.
[14:19] Right, look here; if we are in a very
[14:22] tricky situation now, look at this wave
[14:24] of decline, everyone can see with IWM,
[14:26] this wave fell quite a bit, so is it
[14:28] possible it just rallies straight up?
[14:30] Impossible. It’s possible that after
[14:32] some oscillation, it drags the
[14:33] large-cap tech stocks down, pulling the
[14:35] entire index down with them; that is
[14:36] possible. So we are facing two
[14:38] situations, and therefore we have two
[14:40] types of responses; one is what? How to
[14:43] act if the market turns strong, and the
[14:45] other is what to do if the market turns
[14:47] weak? Let’s talk about that, focusing
[14:49] on the fourth point. First, unlike July
[14:51] , if we are facing a situation where
[14:53] the market is going to weaken, it’s
[14:55] actually relatively easier. Because if
[14:58] the market weakens, then what is left
[15:00] to weaken? It’s these tech giants;
[15:04] these stocks supporting the index, like
[15:06] Nvidia, for example, or Microsoft—
[15:08] those tech giants holding up the index,
[15:11] including Apple—if they eventually
[15:13] play catch-up to the downside, then as
[15:15] long as small stocks don't have a major
[15:17] rally while the big ones are correcting
[15:20] , we will see a relatively large
[15:22] bearish candle across the board, and
[15:24] this candle might trigger a rapid
[15:26] sell-off, and for us, this rapid
[15:29] sell-off is a perfect "golden pit"—
[15:31] why is it a golden pit? Looking at US
[15:34] stocks historically, even in a bad year
[15:36] like 2008, November and December were
[15:39] relatively quiet. Therefore, our real
[15:42] window for a decline is just this
[15:44] period, meaning about two to three
[15:46] weeks left. In other words, between the
[15:49] midterm elections and our current
[15:51] downward window, if this window sees a
[15:53] rapid sell-off, we will have an
[15:55] excellent buying point. That buying
[15:58] point occurs when the market shows
[16:00] intense panic, but how do we judge this
[16:02] panic? For example, we can judge it
[16:05] using the CPC. Right, we can use the
[16:07] CPC to judge. If it spikes up—say it
[16:09] hits 1.4 or 1.7 on a given day—it has
[16:12] spiked. What other directions can we
[16:14] use to judge it? For instance, if we
[16:16] see the VIX break out significantly
[16:18] here, these are all excellent
[16:20] opportunities for us to catch a bottom.
[16:23] The opportunities we catch are also
[16:24] aimed at small-cap stocks or specific
[16:27] individual stocks. Now, let's say a
[16:29] second scenario: you didn't catch it;
[16:31] you didn't catch it during the decline.
[16:33] Well, once October is behind us, in
[16:36] November and December, my judgment is
[16:38] that we will still have a fairly good
[16:40] long-side market. And this long-side
[16:42] market...It's similar to this; you can
[16:44] go this way, or you can go through
[16:46] something similar to this wave. The
[16:48] index might experience some volatility,
[16:50] but we can operate on certain
[16:52] individual stocks in the aftermath.
[16:57] This is our first point: when we
[16:59] encounter a market decline, what if we
[17:01] encounter something else? That is, a
[17:05] reversal market; it's about time at
[17:07] this position. We also see that the
[17:10] entire RSP is outperforming, so if the
[17:13] RSP keeps moving upward, then during
[17:15] this upward phase, what we need to do
[17:18] is ignore our...just ignore our index.
[17:22] At this time, I will focus specifically
[17:24] on breakout opportunities for
[17:25] individual stocks, and I will share
[17:27] these breakout stocks with you every
[17:29] day. Sharing this stock pool, as you
[17:34] can all see, the number of stocks I
[17:36] share every day actually represents the
[17:38] proportions of our entire market to
[17:40] some extent, or the strength or
[17:42] weakness of this market. So, through
[17:46] these stocks that I do the homework on
[17:48] for you every day, we will patiently
[17:50] wait for the individual stock trends to
[17:52] fully develop before taking action. So,
[17:54] this is how we should respond in case
[17:57] of a market rise. We’ve already
[18:00] discussed the advantages of big tech,
[18:02] so what’s the fifth point I’d like
[18:04] to share with you? I’ve used AI to
[18:08] summarize the research report for you;
[18:10] this is a very important perspective
[18:12] from their analyst, PIT, regarding the
[18:15] macroeconomic understanding of AI as a
[18:17] whole. We see that regardless of
[18:20] whether it’s MResearch or TSMC, their
[18:22] earnings reports aren't actually bad.
[18:25] In fact, they are quite good, but the
[18:27] market now has very high requirements
[18:29] or extremely high expectations for them
[18:31] . His technical view aligns with mine
[18:36] in that he believes July is still just
[18:38] a "technical correction," or simply a
[18:40] market that needed a deleveraging
[18:42] process after semiconductors and memory
[18:44] stocks saw such significant gains. What
[18:48] we are seeing now is capital
[18:49] frantically deleveraging—deleveraging
[18:52] from what? From the massive amount of
[18:53] leverage held by the bulls. But just
[18:55] because it has happened doesn't mean
[18:57] that this capital will immediately flow
[18:59] back into the market. So, what we see
[19:01] now from a psychological perspective—
[19:03] and he noted this—is that back in
[19:05] June and July, many clients still had
[19:07] significant profits and a decent
[19:09] cushion, so they could withstand larger
[19:11] volatility. But now, many people in
[19:13] this current cycle have actually lost
[19:15] quite a bit of money. Although we say
[19:17] the indices haven't fallen much, many
[19:19] people's accounts have actually
[19:21] suffered significant losses. Therefore,
[19:23] our follow-up observation is, for one,
[19:24] the timing: the situation regarding the
[19:26] midterm elections has actually become
[19:28] complicated. Previously, if we said
[19:30] there was a high degree of certainty,
[19:32] there wouldn't be much to discuss, but
[19:34] now, the uncertainty is clearly
[19:35] increasing. Furthermore, the potential
[19:38] for—including what we call the dollar
[19:40] or the global liquidity drainage
[19:42] process—has actually not yet ended.
[19:46] This is a very important point they
[19:48] make: that this area is "pin-bearish,"
[19:50] or, as he puts it, there are actually
[19:52] quite a few risks here. So, he is
[19:55] telling us that if we are looking to
[19:57] buy, he has provided a very good
[19:59] direction, which is large-cap platforms
[20:01] . You can look for these large-scale
[20:03] platforms, including what we might
[20:05] consider a major transport platform, or
[20:08] whether it truly qualifies as one, or
[20:10] other large platforms. They have
[20:12] actually been performing well recently,
[20:14] and cybersecurity has certainly been
[20:16] doing very well during this period too.
[20:18] So, if we see macroeconomic conditions
[20:20] improving, followed by successful
[20:22] financing deals, or strong financial
[20:24] reports—especially those that are
[20:26] exceptionally good—they also receive
[20:28] validation from the market. I believe
[20:31] you can see some color changes in my
[20:33] overall risk control system. For
[20:37] example, the rate of change here,
[20:39] including our Race cloud—I’ll share
[20:41] how that’s done, it uses eight models
[20:43] . Each additional one adds a point. If
[20:47] all eight are activated, it’s eight
[20:49] points. So, if the score exceeds four,
[20:52] it turns red. Since our number of
[20:54] models is currently maintained at a
[20:56] high level, three to four, this stays
[20:58] high, indicating very high risk. Even
[21:00] our risk control indicator above is on
[21:02] the yellow line, and it hasn't reached
[21:04] the purple level yet. And what do we
[21:06] mean by purple? It means a very good
[21:08] bottom; this color indicates a bottom.
[21:10] The orange color actually means the
[21:12] overall risk is very, very high, and we
[21:14] will naturally see a reduction in
[21:16] market risk. Once market risk decreases
[21:19] , I believe there will be excellent
[21:21] trading opportunities for stocks. They
[21:24] also provided a major platform, which I
[21:26] think is a very valuable part of their
[21:28] weekend report, and I wanted to share
[21:30] this part of their internal research
[21:32] with you. Right, let me interject with
[21:36] an ad: we provide daily text updates
[21:39] and share my own trading records. So,
[21:42] if you are interested, please join our
[21:45] Discord. Alright, after sharing that
[21:47] with you, there is one more point to
[21:49] discuss, which is U.S. Treasury bonds.
[21:51] Last time, regarding U.S. Treasuries, I
[21:53] shared that I personally made a direct
[21:55] purchase with a long duration. I
[21:59] advised you that what we bought was a
[22:02] long duration, meaning I bought the
[22:04] U.S. Treasury bond—wait, let me
[22:06] correct that—maturing in August 2036.
[22:10] However, many of our friends still
[22:13] prefer to buy TLT. If you're still
[22:15] buying leveraged products like TMF for
[22:16] short-term trading, you're likely going
[22:18] to get hit really hard in this wave.
[22:20] For example, as I told everyone, if you
[22:22] add leverage to TLT right here, the
[22:24] potential losses could be significant.
[22:26] At this position, what I’m doing is a
[22:28] cash-secured put. Since I sold the 80
[22:31] strike, I just roll it over to the next
[22:33] month if I get trapped. So, what I mean
[22:36] is that if we are participating in
[22:38] Treasury bond trading, my personal
[22:40] approach is simply to buy the bonds
[22:42] directly. After buying the bonds,
[22:45] you're essentially getting a yield of
[22:47] over 5%. Now that it's around 4.99%,
[22:50] besides earning a month of interest,
[22:52] what else have we gained? We’ve
[22:55] gained some duration growth. If
[22:59] interest rates continue to fall, my
[23:01] account will look great with decent
[23:03] gains; if not, I'm prepared to hold for
[23:06] ten years and just collect that 5%yield
[23:08] . Because the average return on US
[23:13] stocks in the coming years might not
[23:15] even reach this 5%, a 5%risk-free rate
[23:18] is actually quite good. So, what I want
[23:22] to share is that it’s not really a
[23:24] case of being "trapped" at over 5%. I
[23:27] don’t quite understand that
[23:28] perspective. It depends on your goal;
[23:31] if your goal is to buy US Treasuries,
[23:34] especially for many office workers,
[23:36] this is a great investment choice. A 5%
[23:38] yield is actually very decent—not bad
[23:41] at all. People are just too impatient
[23:43] and too focused on making quick money.
[23:45] So, if you aren't looking to get rich
[23:48] quick, a yield of around 5%is a very
[23:50] good opportunity. I remain very bullish
[23:54] on the trend of US Treasuries, as
[23:56] it’s hard for the current market or
[23:58] economy to sustain such high inflation
[24:00] for such a long time. Now, let’s take
[24:03] a look at individual stocks; many
[24:04] friends are asking about McDonald's. I
[24:06] don’t know why McDonald's has
[24:08] suddenly become so hot or a topic of
[24:10] discussion lately; usually, no one
[24:12] really talks about it. I think if you
[24:14] really bought in around 230 earlier,
[24:16] there’s nothing wrong with that—
[24:17] hasn't it gone up to 250 now? It seems
[24:19] like missing out on the big gains is
[24:21] the concern, but I’ll stick to my
[24:23] point. I wouldn't buy McDonald's at
[24:24] this level. The three major challenges
[24:27] we talk about for McDonald's haven't
[24:29] truly been resolved yet. So, what are
[24:31] these three major challenges? First is
[24:33] the rise in raw material costs, and as
[24:35] everyone knows, the rising raw material
[24:37] costs McDonald's faces aren't just
[24:39] minor—it's the food commodities, the
[24:40] futures market that's rising. The
[24:42] reason our food prices are like this
[24:44] lately is what we call the Iran war,
[24:45] which caused an increase in fertilizer
[24:47] costs, subsequently driving up food
[24:49] prices. We also have the El Niño
[24:51] phenomenon that hasn't even started yet
[24:52] , plus there are logistics issues that
[24:54] haven't fully unfolded. For McDonald's,
[24:57] what they are doing now is taking a
[24:59] large portion of their profits and
[25:01] choosing not to share it with their
[25:02] franchisees. You might say you can go
[25:06] there and get a three or four-dollar
[25:08] meal, but the reality is that a massive
[25:10] number of ordinary people can no longer
[25:12] afford McDonald's. This is a fatal and
[25:14] critical point in our K-shaped economy,
[25:16] so they can't afford to raise prices
[25:18] significantly because the lower end of
[25:20] the K-shape simply can't bear it.
[25:23] Looking ahead, the recent rally in
[25:25] McDonald's was partly due to
[25:26] short-covering, and another point
[25:28] everyone knows is that the decline in
[25:30] U.S. Treasury yields hasn't had that
[25:32] significant of an impact on its
[25:34] valuation anymore. But if we assume
[25:38] inflation won't persist and you are
[25:40] faced with a poor economy, then
[25:42] McDonald's entire revenue will be hit
[25:44] quite hard, so in the short term, I
[25:46] still tell everyone not to trade
[25:48] McDonald's. Some friends might be
[25:51] particularly eager to bottom-fish;
[25:53] after all, hasn't Nike rebounded
[25:55] recently? People say Nike has rebounded
[25:58] , but at this position, if you look at
[26:00] the company's price, you shouldn't
[26:02] really think...I honestly don't think
[26:04] you should feel it's very cheap.
[26:09] Because we can see that as it trends
[26:12] downward, its revenue has been getting
[26:14] worse and worse, and that is its most
[26:16] fatal, most critical issue. But we can
[26:21] see that I believe the worst for Nike
[26:23] may have already passed. That is just
[26:27] based on expectations, but we haven't
[26:29] seen any substantial change yet. So if
[26:33] I were to trade, I wouldn't choose Nike
[26:35] . Everyone remembers I am a long-term
[26:38] investor who bottom-fished UnitedHealth
[26:40] . We bought into UnitedHealth at this
[26:43] level, around the 300 range, and this
[26:46] is a necessity, whereas Nike is not a
[26:48] necessity. If you have some capital, my
[26:52] first recommendation for "buying the
[26:54] dip" would be U.S. Treasuries. Buying
[26:58] U.S. Treasuries is extremely low risk,
[27:00] and it offers the best value. Secondly,
[27:03] if that’s not an option, you could
[27:05] buy traditional stocks like MAN, but
[27:07] they carry higher risk than Treasuries,
[27:10] so their appeal pales in comparison.
[27:12] And what comes last? Companies like
[27:14] Nike, which are discretionary consumer
[27:16] goods—I’m not saying you absolutely
[27:17] have to buy them. As for Moderna, if
[27:19] you're in our group, you know I shared
[27:21] the full logic behind the hype. I know
[27:26] everyone’s mentality is frantic now
[27:28] because, after this last round of
[27:30] cancer drug hype, many people's
[27:32] mindsets have shifted dramatically. I
[27:36] told everyone this is the final wave
[27:39] for unloading, and the way they're
[27:40] doing it is disgusting—they used a "
[27:43] leaked" report right before the data
[27:45] release to create a massive hype exit
[27:47] for the funds. So, while I am very
[27:51] optimistic about the company's future
[27:53] from a long-term perspective, you don't
[27:55] need to worry about the revenue now;
[27:57] just wait for a large-scale
[27:59] consolidation. When it returns to the
[28:03] 130 to 140 range, that will be a very
[28:05] good opportunity. I told everyone we
[28:09] bought in at 100 and sold at 200—no,
[28:12] wait, we sold at 120, so we missed the
[28:15] run to 200, but we still secured my
[28:17] biggest profit of the year. For me,
[28:20] this latter part, especially this
[28:23] recent section, carries massive risk.
[28:27] Because when a single red candle hits,
[28:30] like here, it drops by 20%or more. It
[28:36] opened at 246 and immediately crashed
[28:39] by 18%, with a gap in the middle. So,
[28:46] if you run into this kind of hot money
[28:48] exiting, you could face a very
[28:50] significant loss. Therefore, I’m
[28:54] telling you, we should still hoard
[28:56] Moderna, but definitely not at this
[28:59] price. I waited until it returned to
[29:01] the gap area between 120 and 130, and
[29:03] then I bought back some positions. I
[29:06] don't know if you all understood that.
[29:08] And then, asking you all questions—
[29:10] some of these have been discussed—
[29:12] gold, Bitcoin, that's another matter.
[29:15] And then there's this friend who asked,
[29:17] "SpaceX, shorting it?" 12 to 30, I
[29:19] don't know if you understood what I
[29:21] meant back then. It's just that now we
[29:23] see its new earnings report. After it
[29:25] comes out, SpaceX's valuation shouldn't
[29:27] be 30; it should be higher, maybe 50 or
[29:29] 60. I still need to take my time;
[29:30] that's the kind of......trade I am
[29:32] doing. If I am making a long-term
[29:34] investment, it definitely has to be at
[29:35] a significant discount. For example, a
[29:38] company's valuation—let me give an
[29:40] example, like Tesla. Tesla is at 300+,
[29:43] and I think its valuation......at its
[29:45] current position of 300 is not a
[29:47] reasonable valuation. I can't buy at a
[29:50] reasonable price; I must wait for a
[29:52] chance when it becomes much cheaper. So
[29:54] , in this case, I will wait until that
[29:56] relatively cheap opportunity arises to
[29:59] buy. For instance, right now with
[30:00] SpaceX, I said SpaceX is too expensive
[30:02] for me; I don't think it's worth that
[30:04] much. Back then you said 30, but based
[30:06] on the new earnings report, it might be
[30:08] 50 or 60. I will patiently wait for it
[30:10] to reach that level to buy. If it
[30:12] doesn't reach that level, there's no
[30:14] need to worry, because I'm not talking
[30:16] about forced trades. Right? We have
[30:18] many short-term swing trading
[30:19] opportunities. My job is to find profit
[30:22] in the market, not necessarily to
[30:24] fixate on just one stock like SpaceX.
[30:26] The question this friend asked, I
[30:28] suspect it might be a bit sarcastic, or
[30:30] perhaps asking, "When will it ever
[30:32] reach 30, right?" It doesn't mean I
[30:35] predict it will definitely reach 30,
[30:37] but rather that my trade will be
[30:38] triggered when it hits 30. If it
[30:40] doesn't reach it, it doesn't matter. As
[30:42] hunters, we don't have to hunt rabbits;
[30:45] we can hunt deer, bears, or go fishing.
[30:47] We have many ways to make money in the
[30:50] market, and that is what I really,
[30:51] really want to emphasize. Overall, I'd
[30:54] like to share an observation with you.
[30:58] Whether it's trading US stocks or
[31:00] A-shares, I find that making money is
[31:02] very difficult for most people, or
[31:04] rather, it's something only a very
[31:06] small minority can achieve. Because
[31:09] most people can make big money in a
[31:11] short period, but they cannot sustain
[31:13] it in this market, or profit while
[31:15] effectively controlling risks. In the
[31:18] face of this recent downturn, I told
[31:20] everyone not to rush into trades. The
[31:23] trading difficulty is immense; it might
[31:26] not crash, but it is extremely
[31:28] challenging. Once we enter, we actually
[31:31] find it very easy to lose money. I also
[31:34] had some short positions here to hedge
[31:36] against my long positions. For example,
[31:39] we caught a reversal in AMD, so I took
[31:41] some short positions there, and we also
[31:43] captured some reversals in Micron.
[31:45] Actually, whether you are long or short
[31:47] at this position, the difficulty of
[31:49] trading is still very high. Including
[31:51] CRWD, which I traded earlier, I
[31:52] actually caught a reversal point there
[31:54] as well. But as you can see, there is a
[31:57] very large bullish candle here that
[31:58] broke through our lifeline. Once it
[32:01] broke this bearish candle—similar to
[32:03] the "single bearish candle not broken"
[32:06] rule—I immediately switched to long,
[32:08] and we formed a support here. I closed
[32:10] my short positions at this point, and
[32:12] in the end, my profit went from 14%or
[32:14] 15%to 67%; that's how it went. So, on
[32:16] the whole, our trading difficulty is
[32:18] actually very significant. And trading,
[32:21] especially today, is particularly about
[32:23] mindset. Most of our investors are too
[32:25] anxious, or perhaps they just want to
[32:27] make money. I completely understand
[32:29] that, but the market is not that easy.
[32:31] If everyone could make money in the
[32:32] market so easily, who would still go to
[32:34] work? So I hope everyone can remain
[32:36] patient at this time, and I will give
[32:38] you a point in time. Let's look at a
[32:40] time point; what kind of time point is
[32:42] this? I'll show you our next important
[32:45] time point. As you can see, the Bradley
[32:48] model date is around November 15th. So
[32:51] if you say I'm making it up, just take
[32:53] it as entertainment. Our next minor
[32:55] cycle date is in November. Therefore,
[33:00] there may still be a lot of volatility
[33:02] in the week after the midterm elections
[33:04] in November. So here, we say that on
[33:08] the volatility day, it's likely to be a
[33:10] very important day. If it oscillates
[33:13] here, it might give us a relatively
[33:15] significant move, or after
[33:17] consolidating here, it forms a breakout
[33:19] . I mean, if you look at this entire
[33:21] area, isn't it all just consolidation?
[33:23] Right? After all this consolidation, if
[33:25] it breaks upward, that will be an
[33:26] excellent trading opportunity for our
[33:28] fourth quarter. As for the timing, if
[33:30] you insist on me calculating it, I've
[33:32] said before, there is no good model to
[33:34] calculate timing. So for now, I'll give
[33:37] you a metaphysical timeline; we said
[33:39] the last volatility day was quite early
[33:41] , back in late June, and now we are
[33:43] looking at October 15th for the next
[33:45] one. Alright, let me reiterate one last
[33:49] thing: my daily updates are always
[33:51] ongoing, we update on Discord every day
[33:53] , regardless of whether the view is
[33:55] bullish or bearish, right? Whether
[33:57] right or wrong, I summarize every day,
[33:59] it's all part of our own thinking
[34:01] process. We try our best to provide
[34:03] updates at critical junctures in the
[34:05] market for you. Moreover, my views are
[34:08] never based on hindsight. Even if I
[34:10] don't make a video for you, if you
[34:12] follow our community page, I will still
[34:14] provide updates there. See you next
[34:16] time, bye-bye.
![[US Stock Analysis] Big Tech Catch-up Sell-off or Sector Rotation? Hedge Fund Deleveraging and th... — Finding Your Edge 交易之刃](https://reducer.xgoose.org/media/thumbnail/6412.jpg)