【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】百万美元组合的最终答案：股债金币怎么配

【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】百万美元组合的最终答案：股债金币怎么配 — 浑水摸鱼清源

浑水摸鱼清源

AI-assisted summary of 【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】百万美元组合的最终答案：股债金币怎么配 — original source. Check the original for full context.

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Key ideas

  • Sven Carlin在百万美元组合配置收官篇中明确将比特币和黄金的仓位归零，认为两者均为非生息资产且无法贡献长期复利。 (0:00)
  • 针对债券配置，Carlin建议拒绝多出1%名义收益的10年期美债，效仿伯克希尔将现金停留在3个月以内短债以获取约4%收益并回避久期与通胀风险。 (3:32)
  • 当市场能够提供10%以上复合回报且具备安全边际时，组合应当100%做多优质股票，否则多余资产只会稀释长期复利表现。 (4:05)
  • 当前美股估值处于历史第二贵水平（仅次于互联网泡沫时期），历史上同类极端估值后十年常出现约60%幅度的负收益，耐心等待估值回归是关键。 (5:00)

Detailed notes

## Background 本内容由B站UP主「浑水摸鱼清源」于2026年10月26日发布，整理自价值投资频道 Sven Carlin, Ph.D 的百万美元资产配置收官篇。视频简介阐述了作者对股票、债券、黄金与比特币的取舍逻辑，提出将比特币与黄金配置直接归零，并建议效仿伯克希尔在缺少安全边际时持有短期美债以等待市场暴跌。

## TL;DR Sven Carlin在四周资产配置系列收官篇中明确将比特币和黄金的配置降为零，理由是比特币属于缺乏生产力的投机赌博，而黄金作为非生息资产机会成本巨大且无法真正对冲极端灾难。在当前5%利率环境下，他警告不要为了1%的微薄溢价去承担10年期美债巨大的通胀与久期风险，而应效仿伯克希尔将防御资金停留在3个月以内短期美债获取约4%收益。Carlin强调，只要能找到具备安全边际且预期年化回报超10%的优质股票，最佳策略就是100%全仓做多股票，其余资产只会稀释长期复利。鉴于当前美股处于历史第二贵的高估值区间，投资者必须保持极大的纪律与耐心，在好标的浮现前坚守短债现金储备。

## Atmosphere & style 整期内容透露出一种老练、清醒且毫不留情的价值投资硬核风格。主讲人以沉着冷峻的语气逐一打破散户对加密货币和黄金避险的浪漫幻想，措辞直白辛辣。面对全网狂欢的牛市与动辄年化15%的标普多头，他展现出穿越周期的战略定力，让观众在喧嚣泡沫中真切感受到耐心持币等待暴跌的理性与克制。

## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=0s) Sven Carlin在百万美元组合配置收官篇中明确将比特币和黄金的仓位归零，认为两者均为非生息资产且无法贡献长期复利。 - [03:32](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=212s) 针对债券配置，Carlin建议拒绝多出1%名义收益的10年期美债，效仿伯克希尔将现金停留在3个月以内短债以获取约4%收益并回避久期与通胀风险。 - [04:05](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=245s) 当市场能够提供10%以上复合回报且具备安全边际时，组合应当100%做多优质股票，否则多余资产只会稀释长期复利表现。 - [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=300s) 当前美股估值处于历史第二贵水平（仅次于互联网泡沫时期），历史上同类极端估值后十年常出现约60%幅度的负收益，耐心等待估值回归是关键。

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=0s) 资产配置以个人财务处境为根本前提，投资的前提是钱在短期内绝不需要动用。 - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=0s) 比特币价值为零且缺乏底层生产性引擎，本质是对现有货币体系崩塌的赌博，长期复利贡献为零。 - [01:26](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=86s) 黄金作为非生息资产，持有30年仍旧是一盎司，为防范极端风险而承担的机会成本过高。 - [01:26](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=86s) 极端动荡或战争发生时，实物黄金反而伴随暴力抢劫与安全隐患，并非高性价比的风险对冲手段。 - [03:32](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=212s) 5%利率环境下股债决策的核心标准在于能否在股市找到具备安全边际且达10%以上的长期增值标的。 - [03:32](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=212s) 若缺乏10%以上的确定性机会，应效仿伯克希尔将流动资金置于3个月以内的短期国债中坐收约4%收益以等待暴跌。 - [03:32](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=212s) 不宜追逐10年期美债额外的1%收益，因其久期风险无法对冲未来潜在通胀导致的50%-70%购买力贬值风险。 - [04:05](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=245s) 一年内需要使用的现金应当完全隔离在3个月短期美债中，绝不应承担股市波动的风险。 - [04:05](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=245s) 一旦发现兼具安全边际与10%+年化回报的股票，最优解是100%做多股票，配置其他资产只会拉低长期复利。 - [04:05](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=245s) 当前研究象限持续持有中国资产与Palantir，新纳入硕腾（Zoetis），并关注价格回落后的奈飞及Lululemon、Deckers等战术性机会。 - [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=300s) 当前股市估值处于有记录以来第二贵水平，在此类高估值背景下往往需要等待数年才能迎来合理的买入安全边际。 - [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=300s) 标普500指数每年15%的涨幅易让多头产生虚假安全感，历史上相似估值峰值往往预示着后续一至二十年的平庸甚至大幅亏损回报。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=0s) The Zero Allocation: Why Bitcoin Fails the Compounding Test

Sven Carlin begins by framing his asset allocation philosophy with an essential caveat: money is deeply personal, and any portfolio strategy must first account for an individual’s specific financial situation. Turning immediately to the most speculative asset on the table, Carlin aligns his stance with investor Steve Eisman, giving Bitcoin an allocation of exactly zero. In Carlin’s view, cryptocurrency offers zero probability of delivering durable, long-term compounding effects to a portfolio. He draws a hard line between genuine investing and speculation, emphasizing that anyone allocating capital to Bitcoin must recognize that they are not investing, but gambling.

Carlin dismisses the economic utility of Bitcoin, stressing that it produces no cash flow and possesses no underlying productive engine. Instead, holding Bitcoin is merely an outright wager against the existing monetary and financial architecture. While an investor might speculate on systemic collapse, Carlin points out that the odds of such an extreme outcome paying off favorably are far from guaranteed.

> “Owning Bitcoin is gambling.” — Sven Carlin

> “No point in discussing, no utility, nothing productive. It's just a bet on the destruction, on everything else that keeps the system as it is.” — Sven Carlin

[01:26](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=86s) Gold’s Non-Productive Nature and the Flaw in Crisis Hedging

Turning to gold, Carlin arrives at the identical conclusion: a 0% allocation in a compounding portfolio. While acknowledging that gold may not have a true intrinsic value of zero like Bitcoin, he argues that it suffers from the fatal flaw of being an entirely non-productive asset. If an investor buys an ounce of gold today, it remains precisely one ounce of gold three decades later, completely incapable of generating yield, reinvesting capital, or producing earnings. For long-term wealth builders, paying that level of opportunity cost solely for hypothetical downside protection makes gold an inefficient holding.

Carlin also challenges the popular narrative that gold serves as the ultimate doomsday hedge. In a catastrophic scenario such as full-scale war or societal collapse, physical gold presents profound logistical and security liabilities rather than practical safety. Carlin bluntly notes that in such an environment, someone can simply come in, shoot you, and steal your gold. While gold’s spot price could theoretically surge to $10,000, Carlin insists that sound investing is about compounding wealth with certainty over multi-decade horizons, not speculating on catastrophe.

> “If you buy an ounce of gold now, in 30 years, that ounce will still be an ounce of gold.” — Sven Carlin

> “It's not a cost effective risk mitigation strategy. Therefore, zero.” — Sven Carlin

- **Opportunity Cost:** Sacrificing productive compounders for an inert metal creates a substantial performance drag over 30-year horizons. - **Physical Vulnerability:** In extreme geopolitical or social collapse scenarios, physical gold exposes the owner to violent theft rather than genuine safety. - **Speculative Price Targets:** Possible runs to $10,000 per ounce do not transform gold into an investable, productive compounding engine.

[03:32](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=212s) Bonds at 5%: The Berkshire Playbook and the 10-Year Duration Trap

Fixed income presents a fundamentally different landscape at a 5% interest rate environment than it did five years prior when rates sat pinned at zero. However, Carlin argues that the choice between fixed income and equities boils down to a single question: can you identify long-term investments delivering 10% or greater annual returns backed by a clear margin of safety? If those opportunities do not currently exist in the market, the correct move is to emulate Berkshire Hathaway’s playbook: parking liquid reserves—just as Berkshire does with its roughly $350 billion cash hoard—in short-term Treasury bills with maturities of three months or less, capturing around 4% risk-free while patiently awaiting a crash or mispriced opportunities.

Carlin explicitly warns against reaching for the extra 100 basis points offered by 10-year Treasuries. Locking up capital for a decade for an extra 1% yield exposes the investor to severe duration and purchasing-power risk. Should inflation reignite over the coming decade, a $1,000,000 principal yielding 5% nominal could easily lose 50%, 60%, or even 70% of its real purchasing power down the road. While Carlin suspects interest rates may decline over the next one to two years as the artificial intelligence bubble deflates and government fiscal constraints force intervention, he stresses that betting on rate drops across the long end of the curve is still just a speculative wager.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Capital Allocation Framework accDescr: Decision tree illustrating Sven Carlin's capital allocation choices between short-term Treasuries, long-term Treasuries, and 10%+ equity compounders.

subgraph Evaluation ["Capital Allocation Decision"] NeedCash["Need cash within a year?"] FindTen["Can you find 10%+ equity return with margin of safety?"] end

subgraph Strategy ["Portfolio Actions"] ShortBills["Hold ≤3-Month Treasuries (~4%)<br>(The Berkshire Model)"] LongEquities["100% Long High-Conviction Equities"] end

subgraph Rejected ["Rejected Alternatives"] TenYearBonds["Avoid 10-Year Treasuries<br>(Inflation & duration risk not compensated by +1%)"] CryptoGold["0% to Bitcoin & Gold<br>(Non-productive assets / pure gambling)"] end

NeedCash -->|"Yes"| ShortBills NeedCash -->|"No"| FindTen FindTen -->|"No"| ShortBills FindTen -->|"Yes"| LongEquities ShortBills -.->|"Avoid reaching for yield"| TenYearBonds FindTen -.->|"Eliminate deadweight"| CryptoGold ```

> “Why not into the 10-year treasury that offers 1% more? Because that 1% more does not justify the higher risks of holding this for the next 10 years.” — Sven Carlin

> “These rates are not sustainable, nor for the government, nor for corporations, private equity insurance. Nada.” — Sven Carlin

[04:05](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=245s) Discipline, 100% Long Equities, and the Research Quadrant

Carlin emphasizes what he terms the "alpha and omega" of investing: you must only invest capital that you will not need in the near term. If funds are earmarked for expenses next year, they belong exclusively in short-dated Treasury bills rather than exposed to stock market gyrations. In his framework, equity investing should function as the "cherry on top" of a secure financial foundation, not the base holding up your everyday life. When an investor successfully locates businesses offering sustainable 10%+ returns with a margin of safety, Carlin’s rule is absolute: be 100% long equities, because any other asset class will merely dilute and detract from long-term compounding.

Carlin illustrates how this discipline translates into his public research quadrant. The portfolio selectively holds undervalued Chinese equities, Palantir, and recent addition Zoetis within lower-risk profiles. Meanwhile, because Netflix’s share price experienced a pullback, Carlin notes it may soon warrant a shift toward the higher-return, lower-risk section of the quadrant. Tactical opportunities such as Lululemon and Deckers are also tracked for timely entries. While high-quality stalwarts like Berkshire Hathaway remain core benchmarks, Carlin observes that its valuation has run up, making selective hedging or disciplined patience necessary until valuations become compelling again.

> “When it comes to investing, if I can find 10% of more, then the only solution is to be 100% long.” — Sven Carlin

> “All other assets are detracting from your long-term wealth compounding.” — Sven Carlin

- **Cash Timing Rule:** Any money required within a 12-month horizon belongs in three-month Treasury bills, completely insulated from market volatility. - **Quadrant Additions:** Zoetis was introduced into the lower-risk basket, while Palantir and select Chinese equities continue to be held. - **Valuation Tracking:** Netflix is positioned for an upgrade toward lower-risk/higher-return status following price drops; Lululemon and Deckers serve as opportunistic valuation plays.

[05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=300s) Navigating the Second Most Expensive Market in History

Reflecting on the broader macroeconomic environment, Carlin warns that investors today are purchasing the second most expensive stock market in recorded financial history, eclipsed only by the dot-com bubble of 1999–2000. Under current conditions, finding opportunities that offer a 10% annual return alongside low risk is exceedingly rare. He contrasts this with his research quadrant from January 2025, where high-reward, low-risk opportunities were plentiful—including Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Nutrien, Rubis, Samsung, Alphabet (Google), Petrobras, and Berkshire Hathaway. Every one of those companies delivered outstanding performance precisely because they were acquired when valuations provided a wide margin of safety.

Carlin stresses that successful investing is fundamentally an exercise in patience rather than frantic continuous action. Following historical peaks of comparable valuation extremes, the market has delivered roughly 60% negative real returns over subsequent 10- to 20-year spans. Even though the S&P 500's ongoing 15% annual gains make every bullish commentator look like a genius in the short term, historical cycles suggest that the ensuing decades could be brutal. While the artificial intelligence-fueled euphoria could easily stretch on for another four years, enduring wealth compounding requires understanding risk tolerance, respecting business fundamentals, and having the discipline to hold short-term cash until mispricings reappear.

> “The problem is that you have to know what you're doing because now you are buying the second most expensive market in history.” — Sven Carlin

> “The S&P 500 goes up 15% per year. All the bulls are geniuses. When that happens, usually the next 20 years look ugly.” — Sven Carlin

- **Historical Precedent:** The current market trails only the dot-com bubble in peak valuation multiples. - **Subsequent Drawdowns:** Markets trading at these historical valuation extremes have historically produced approximately 60% negative returns over the following decade. - **The January 2025 Value Cohort:** Archer-Daniels-Midland, Nutrien, Rubis, Samsung, Google, and Petrobras proved that outsized performance comes from waiting for wide margins of safety. - **The Bull Market Mirage:** Widespread double-digit index gains create an illusion of easy investing right before multi-decade periods of secular stagnation or contraction begin.

## Notable quotes > [01:26](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=86s) If you buy an ounce of gold now, in 30 years, that ounce will still be an ounce of gold. — Sven Carlin

> [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=300s) The S&P 500 goes up 15% per year. All the bulls are geniuses. When that happens, usually the next 20 years look ugly. — Sven Carlin

> [03:32](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=212s) Why not into the 10-year treasury that offers 1% more? Because that 1% more does not justify the higher risks of holding this for the next 10 years. — Sven Carlin

> [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt?t=300s) The problem is that you have to know what you're doing because now you are buying the second most expensive market in history. — Sven Carlin

## Mentioned Sven Carlin, Steve Eisman, Berkshire Hathaway, Palantir, Zoetis, Netflix, Lululemon, Deckers, Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Nutrien, Rubis, Samsung, Alphabet (Google), Petrobras, S&P 500

## Video description 【Value Investing with Sven Carlin】 封面说的「比特币黄金 全部归零」，是 Sven 对 100 万美元组合的最终取舍：比特币在他看来价值是零、持有就是赌博的钱；黄金放 30 年还是那一盎司，不产生任何现金流，机会成本巨大；债券多出的 1% 收益率也不足以补偿风险。所以他把组合全部押在股票上——没有安全边际的机会时就学伯克希尔，先拿短期美债的 4%，等暴跌再出手。

百万美元组合的最终答案：股债金币怎么配 $1,000,000 Portfolio Asset Allocation Final Take

｜系列结论：比特币与黄金归零 这是四周资产配置系列节目的收官篇，给出股票、债券、比特币与黄金之间的最终配置观点。先声明立场：钱是私人的事，一切取决于个人处境，以下仅是作者自己的结论。比特币：引用Steve Eisman的观点——价值为零，对长期复利贡献为零，持有比特币本质是赌博，动用的应该是&quot;赌资&quot;；它是对现有货币体系崩塌的下注，输赢皆有，无需多谈。黄金：结论相同，甚至更明确——30年后一盎司黄金还是一盎司，它是非生息资产，为这点保护支付的机会成本太高；真到乱世，&quot;有人会过来拿走你的黄金&quot;。作为风险对冲工具，它成本效益不划算，配置权重同样归零。

｜债券：5%的利率改变了一切 债券与五年前完全不同——5%的利率环境有了真实的选项。但股债抉择的核心问题始终只有一个：你能否以安全边际找到10%以上的长期资本增值机会？找不到，就学伯克希尔：账上3500亿美元现金全部趴在3个月期以内的短债里拿约4%收益，等崩盘或新机会。为什么不买收益率高1%的10年期美债？因为这1%补不上10年持有期的风险——一旦通胀抬头，5%的名义收益在购买力上可能贬值50%-70%，风险收益比不成立。作者预计未来一两年利率将随AI泡沫破裂、政府介入而下行，押注合理但终究是押注。

｜纪律与仓位：100%做多与现金分层 两条铁律：只用长期不需要的钱投资，如果明年就要用，就放短债，别进股市；在当前市况下，若能找到10%以上的确定性机会，唯一解就是100%做多股票，其他资产只会稀释长期复利。作者公开了自己的研究象限：持有中国相关公司与Palantir，新进硕腾Zoetis，奈飞因价格回落需向更低风险一档微调，同时保留Lululemon、Deckers之类的战术性机会；伯克希尔很好但价格偏贵。

｜历史坐标与耐心 当前是历史上估值第二贵的市场，仅次于互联网泡沫；历史上这种估值之后十年出现约60%幅度的负收益。回看2025年1月，象限里还有ADM、Nutrien、Rubis、三星、谷歌、巴西石油、伯克希尔等&quot;低风险高回报&quot;标的且随后表现优异——好机会是等出来的。当下标普年涨15%、多头人人像天才，恰恰是未来20年前景最需要警惕的时候；泡沫也许还能再撑四年，但长期复利的意义在于穿越周期时既做得好、也睡得着。落脚点仍是老三样：所有者回报、安全边际、长期周期。

接下来建议的操作指引： 1. 参照伯克希尔结构管理现金：短债打底吃4%-5%，等待估值回归，不追当前第二贵市场。 2. 拒绝10年期美债的&quot;1%加成&quot;，久期风险与通胀风险不成比例，短债优先。 3. 建立&quot;10%+安全边际&quot;筛选清单，现在没有就持币等待，象限标的（中国资产、Palantir、硕腾等）按各自估值分批评估。

【时间轴】 00:00 系列收官与比特币零价值论 01:26 黄金非生息与机会成本 03:32 债券5%利率下的取舍逻辑 05:16 100%做多条件与持仓象限 07:01 历史第二贵市场的耐心策略

[Source](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1x9Hg6YEXt)

中文简报

Sven Carlin博士价值投资：百万美元组合的最终答案——股债金币如何配置 Sven Carlin在四周资产配置系列收官篇中明确将比特币和黄金的配置降为零，理由是比特币属于缺乏生产力的投机赌博，而黄金作为非生息资产机会成本巨大且无法真正对冲极端灾难。在当前5%利率环境下，他警告不要为了1%的微薄溢价去承担10年期美债巨大的通胀与久期风险，而应效仿伯克希尔将防御资金停留在3个月以内短期美债获取约4%收益。Carlin强调，只要能找到具备安全边际且预期年化回报超10%的优质股票，最佳策略就是100%全仓做多股票，其余资产只会稀释长期复利。鉴于当前美股处于历史第二贵的高估值区间，投资者必须保持极大的纪律与耐心，在好标的浮现前坚守短债现金储备。 Sven Carlin在百万美元组合配置收官篇中明确将比特币和黄金的仓位归零，认为两者均为非生息资产且无法贡献长期复利。 (0:00) 针对债券配置，Carlin建议拒绝多出1%名义收益的10年期美债，效仿伯克希尔将现金停留在3个月以内短债以获取约4%收益并回避久期与通胀风险。 (3:32) 当市场能够提供10%以上复合回报且具备安全边际时，组合应当100%做多优质股票，否则多余资产只会稀释长期复利表现。 (4:05) 当前美股估值处于历史第二贵水平（仅次于互联网泡沫时期），历史上同类极端估值后十年常出现约60%幅度的负收益，耐心等待估值回归是关键。 (5:00)

Reading summary

价值投资者Sven Carlin提出，在当前历史级高估值的市场环境下，真正的长期复利应当完全剔除比特币和黄金等非生产性资产；唯有在能锁定10%以上年化回报且具备安全边际时才应全仓做多股票，否则应将流动性保留在3个月以内的短期美债中等待机会。 剔除非生产性资产：比特币与黄金配置为零 (0:00) Sven Carlin主张在追求长期复利的投资组合中给比特币和黄金设定0%的配置。他认为比特币不产生现金流、没有生产力引擎，只是对现有金融体系崩溃的赌博，根本不属于真正的投资。黄金虽然不像比特币内在价值为零，但同样属于非生产性资产——持有一盎司黄金30年后仍只是一盎司，无法通过分红再投资或商业利润扩张来复利增值，长期持有会产生巨大的机会成本。此外，Carlin反驳了黄金作为末日避险工具的逻辑，指出在战争或极端社会崩溃场景下，实物黄金极易遭遇暴力抢劫，并不是高性价比的风险对冲策略。 固定收益策略：警惕十年期美债陷阱与短债防守 (3:32) 在5%的利率环境下，Carlin强调固收资产的角色取决于股票市场能否提供10%以上的安全边际回报。在缺乏合适标的时，他建议效仿伯克希尔·哈撒韦储备约3500亿美元现金的做法，将流动资金存放在期限不超过3个月的短期国债中，获取约4%的无风险收益。他明确警告投资者不要为了多拿100个基点的收益而去买入10年期国债；长达十年的期限风险极高，一旦未来通胀卷土重来，锁定5%名义收益的百万美元本金其实际购买力可能缩水50%至70%。尽管他预计未来一至两年因AI泡沫降温和政府财政约束利率可能会下行，但赌长端利率下行依然属于投机行为。 全仓股票原则与近期研究象限追踪 (4:05) Carlin将“绝不动用短期资金”视作投资的基本法则，明确12个月内需要使用的日常资金必须严格停留在3个月美债中，绝不能承受股市波动。只有当找到能够稳定提供10%以上年化回报且具备安全边际的优质企业时，才应执行100%全仓股票策略，因为其他任何低效资产都会稀释复合增长效果。在其研究象限中，Carlin近期将硕腾（Zoetis）加入低风险板块，继续持有拼多多等部分被低估的中国股票和Palantir；奈飞在股价回调后正接近移入“低风险/高回报”象限，同时他也持续追踪Lululemon和Deckers等估值机会；对于伯克希尔·哈撒韦，他指出其估值目前已处于高位，需保持耐心或进行选择性对冲。 历史第二贵市场：复利的核心在于耐心等待 (5:00) Carlin提醒，当下的美股市场估值极端高昂，仅次于1999至2000年的互联网泡沫时期。历史经验显示，在估值达到此种历史极值后，市场在随后的10到20年里往往会出现约60%的实际负回报。尽管当前标普500指数每年约15%的涨幅让看多者看似英明，且AI推动的狂热情绪可能还会持续数年，但忽视基本面与估值的代价极高。他回顾2025年1月的象限时指出，当时布局的ADM、Nutrien、Rubis、三星、谷歌（Alphabet）以及中海油等标的之所以表现优异，完全是因为在低估值和高安全边际时买入，因此眼下最重要的策略是在短债中保持耐心，等待估值泡沫出清。 Carlin认为长期财富增长的本质是纪律与等待，而非盲目追逐当下的市场动能。在估值处于历史次高点的周期中，持有短期高流动性国债并非不作为，而是为下一次危机或市场错配保留最充分的购买力。

精炼阅读摘要

价值投资研究者 Sven Carlin 提出，构建长期复利投资组合的核心在于排除非生产性资产，并在缺乏具备安全边际且年化回报超 10% 的优质标的时，效仿伯克希尔策略持有短期国债耐心等待。 彻底排除比特币与黄金的配置理由 (0:00) Sven Carlin 主张在长期复利组合中对数字货币与贵金属均给予 0% 的配置比例。他与投资者 Steve Eisman 的立场一致，认为比特币本质上属于投机赌博而非投资，其自身不产生任何现金流，缺乏底层的生产性引擎，仅仅是对既有货币与金融体系崩溃的单向押注。持有该类资产无法为组合提供可预测的长期复利效应。 针对传统避险资产黄金，Carlin 同样认为其作为非生产性资产存在巨大机会成本。投资者持有一盎司黄金三十年后依然仅是一盎司黄金，无法进行资本再投资或产生收益。此外，Carlin 质疑黄金在极端社会危机中的避险有效性，指出在战争或社会体系崩溃等极端情境下，实物黄金伴随着极高的物理安全与被掠夺风险，因此将其作为下行保护工具并不具备成本效益。 短期国库券对决长端久期陷阱 (3:32) 在当前 5% 的基准利率环境下，Carlin 建议投资者借鉴 Berkshire Hathaway 管理约 3500 亿美元现金储备的方式。如果在股票市场中找不到兼具安全边际与 10% 以上年化回报的投资标的，最优策略是将流动资金停留在期限 3 个月以内的短期国库券中，锁定约 4% 的无风险收益，同时保持充分流动性以等待市场调整。 Carlin 明确反对为了获得额外约 100 个基点的收益而买入 10 年期国债。他指出，多出 1% 的名义收益完全无法补偿长达十年的久期风险与通胀侵蚀风险。若未来十年通货膨胀卷土重来，100 万美元本金即使维持 5% 的名义收益，其实际购买力也可能面临 50% 至 70% 的严重缩水。尽管他推测随着人工智能泡沫降温以及政府财政压力迫使干预，利率可能在未来一到两年内下行，但押注长端收益率下行依旧属于投机行为。 100% 股票配置纪律与研究象限策略 (4:05) Carlin 强调投资的首要原则是绝不动用短期内需要支出的资金。凡是未来一年内可能用到的开销，必须全部存放在 3 个月期国库券中，股票投资只能建立在稳固的财务基础之上。一旦投资者筛选出具有安全边际且能实现 10% 以上持续回报的优质企业，唯一正确的策略就是 100% 做多股票，因为其他资产都会稀释长期复利的效果。 在具体的选股象限中，Carlin 披露其组合在低风险类别中选择性配置了估值偏低的中国股票、Palantir 以及近期纳入的 Zoetis。随着 Netflix 股价出现回调，该标的有望被调入高回报、低风险象限；同时组合还在跟踪 Lululemon 和 Deckers 的战术性估值买点。对于 Berkshire Hathaway 这类核心持仓，鉴于其估值已显著走高，投资者需要保持纪律与耐心，甚至采取防御性策略等待估值重回具备吸引力的区间。 历史次高估值市场中的耐性考验 (5:00) Carlin 警告称，当前美股市场整体估值处于有记录以来的历史第二高位，仅次于 1999 至 2000 年的互联网泡沫时期。在这样的宏观环境下，寻找兼具低风险与 10% 年化收益的资产极其罕见。他对比了 2025 年 1 月的研究象限，当时市场提供了包括 Archer-Daniels-Midland（ADM）、Nutrien、Rubis、三星（Samsung）、谷歌母公司 Alphabet、Petrobras 以及 Berkshire Hathaway 等充沛的高性价比标的，而这些投资之所以能录得优异表现，完全得益于买入时足够宽的安全边际。 从历史估值极值周期的演变规律来看，在经历类似的高估值顶点后，市场在随后的 10 至 20 年间曾出现过约 60% 的实际负回报。Carlin 指出，尽管标普 500 指数目前年化约 15% 的涨幅让看多者看似掌握了真理，且人工智能带来的狂热情绪可能还会延续数年，但长期复利的关键在于敬畏商业基本面与自身风险承受力，并在错误定价重新出现之前，克制盲目操作的冲动以持有现金工具为主。 Sven Carlin 总结认为，百万美元资产配置的本质是严格区分投资与投机。当市场处于历史高估值区间且缺乏年化 10% 以上的安全边际机会时，投资者不应涉足非生产性的黄金或加密货币，也不应为了微薄溢价承担长债久期风险，而应保持纪律持有超短期国库券，静待市场出现大幅错误定价后再实施 100% 股票配置。

Source quotes

[1:26] Sven Carlin: If you buy an ounce of gold now, in 30 years, that ounce will still be an ounce of gold. [5:00] Sven Carlin: The S&P 500 goes up 15% per year. All the bulls are geniuses. When that happens, usually the next 20 years look ugly. [3:32] Sven Carlin: Why not into the 10-year treasury that offers 1% more? Because that 1% more does not justify the higher risks of holding this for the next 10 years. [5:00] Sven Carlin: The problem is that you have to know what you're doing because now you are buying the second most expensive market in history.

Original transcript

[0:00] This is my take. But most importantly, Money! is personal, it all depends on the personal situation. And... Let me first to give you my take, then we'll conclude. And always take that personal situation into account. By the way, if with Bitcoin to take Steve Eisman's hand, zero is the value of Bitcoin. Zero chance it gives you long-term compounding effects for your portfolio. Owning Bitcoin is gambling. If you own Bitcoin, that's the money you're gambling with. That's it. No point in discussing, no utility, nothing productive. It's just a bet on the destruction, on everything else that keeps the system as it is. You might not win. Now, we talked about gold. Well, my opinion is the same. Why? Maybe not zero, But it's a non-productive asset. If you buy an ounce of gold now, In 30 years, that ounce will still be an ounce of gold. So from a risk mitigation strategy, from whatever you are paying a huge opportunity cost for that protection that gold might give you If war comes, somebody comes in, shoots you and steals your gold. Too risky for what it offers. Or better to say, too costly. It's not a cost effective risk mitigation strategy. Therefore, zero. It is what it is. And yes, it can go to 10,000, but we are talking long-term compounding your wealth with certainty. not gambling. Then we have to discuss bonds. Of course, at 5%, the story is much different than five years ago where it was at zero. However, the key question between bonds and equity is very simple. Do you have 10% plus. long-term compounding opportunities with a margin of safety. If you don't, Okay, then you do like Berkshire, 350 billion in cash, all in three or less month treasuries, getting 4% and waiting for, a crash or opportunities. Why not into the 10-year treasury that offers 1% more? Because that 1% more does not justify the higher risks of holding this for the next 10 years. If we have inflationary pressures, that 1 million and the 5% yield could be worth 50, 60, 70% less down the road. Therefore, simply the risk and reward are not there. It looks nice now I feel that interest rates will go lower in the next year or two. As the AI bubble bursts, things like that, the government intervenes. These rates are not sustainable, nor for the government, nor for corporations, private equity insurance. Nada. That might be a good bet. but it remains a bet. Of course, when it comes to investing, just a reminder here, we are always talking about investing the money you don't need. That's the alpha and omega of investing. If you need the money next year, this, that, three month treasuries and forget about it, take the volatility of the stock market up and down. It's money you don't need for the long term. And I always say stock market investing is the cherry on top of your wealth, of your life, of your everything. If it's the fundamentals of it, then you're in trouble. if you are not doing things well. When it comes to investing, if I can find 10% of more, then the only solution is to be 100% long. All other assets are detracting from your long-term wealth compounding. And here we have our public quadrant, Chinese companies, Pantheir, we just added Zoetis that less risky situations. So there is a lot. Perhaps in the next update we have to move Netflix a little bit towards the higher return, lower risk because the price has gone down a little bit more. So that is something interesting. And then if you discuss a lot of this, buy at the right time, you can take some bets like Lululemon or Decker's, things like that. But that's one way of approaching this. Berkshire is great, but a little bit expensive. Another option is to be hedged. How expensive? That's a long story. We might discuss that again. [5:00] likely towards the end of the year because it will be interesting for 2027. The problem is that you have to know what you're doing because now you are buying the second most expensive market in history. The only time it was more expensive was during the dot-com bubble. And also if you look at our quadrant, there is not much offering low risk 10%. Of course, these are the public ones. But if you look at a year and a half ago, this is from January 2025. And then if you look deeper, look at the high reward, low risk. Archer Daniel Midland, Nutrien, Rubis, Samsung, Google, Petrobras, Berkshire was still there. But all of these companies have done really, really well. So it's also a timing patience situations. Maybe not now, maybe next year, maybe this, you start adding this. So it's not like here is the portfolio, do this now. It a process of owning businesses at 10 or more over time It comes to patience buying when you know it is a right buy you follow you have knowledge you understand the risks you understand how it fits your portfolio. It is hard to do now, but crucial to do now because we are in the second most expensive market in history, AI bubble. And all these bubbles ended up badly the last few times, historically 60% negative returns over the next decade or so. So this is what I really think. Of course, here come the nuances, the personal situations. It's your money. After all, you have to understand your tolerance, your understanding of investing, of the investment rewards, of the risks, and then combine that with your life, your goals, your possibilities, opportunities, et cetera. And especially as today, investing seems simple. The S&P 500 goes up 15% per year. All the bulls are geniuses. When that happens, usually the next 20 years look ugly. Perhaps the bubble will continue another four.