科技巨头资本开支推高半导体周期 永利度假村与RH迎逆向买点

科技巨头资本开支推高半导体周期 永利度假村与RH迎逆向买点 大厂不计回报的算力争夺将支撑芯片板块延续牛市，而市场对宏观环境的恐慌则为资产负债表稳健的线下高端龙头砸出估值错杀机会。 主讲人Jeremy从长期资产复利的视角切入，对比了当下生成式AI领域的非理性繁荣与2006年房地产泡沫，指出Anthropic等初创公司背负巨额算力债务却享受天价估值的荒谬，主张通过AMD与英伟达等核心“卖铲人”捕捉半导体下一波牛市主升浪。在消费分化背景下，他通过拆解Olive Garden的门庭冷落与Flower Child的同店高增长，论证了Cheesecake Factory（CAKE）的抗周期护城河与折价机会。最后，他践行“在别人恐惧时贪婪”的逆向法则，重点推介了因地缘政治和宏观利率担忧而被严重错杀的永利度假村（WYNN）与高端家居零售商RH，强调其健康的债务展期跑道与显著的向上不对称收益。 市场正显现典型的人工智能泡沫特征：下游模型厂商与科技巨头不计成本抢购算力，而Anthropic拟以超过2万亿美元估值IPO，同时背负向谷歌、亚马逊等云厂商承诺的数千亿美元不可撤销算力债务。 (5:22) 半导体板块预计在当前周期见顶前还将迎来1至3轮牛市行情，科技巨头庞大的资本开支支撑产业链景气度，AMD在毛利率超预期或市场提前透支增长的情景下具备冲击1000美元的动力。 (29:59) 实体餐饮业遭受消费疲软冲击严重分化，Olive Garden等平庸平价连锁门庭冷落，而Cheesecake Factory凭借旗舰店抗周期现金流及Flower Child的高同店增速展现出显著估值折价优势。 (14:59) 逆向布局窗口浮现：Wynn Resorts过去一年暴跌41.5%，但其已将近期债务展期至2034及2035年，并手握中东阿联酋度假村与超高端国际客群催化剂；RH的债务压力同样延后至2028年，核心现金流与利润率已现拐点。 (34:59)

主讲人 Jeremy 认为当前人工智能赛道存在不计成本资本开支的典型泡沫特征，投资者应警惕高估值未盈利模型公司并聚焦半导体等“卖铲人”；与此同时，在非必需消费与房地产悲观情绪笼罩下，Cheesecake Factory、永利度假村（Wynn Resorts）与 RH 展现出极具吸引力的逆向投资价值。 AI 资本狂热与上游“卖铲人”逻辑 (9:59) 当前人工智能领域的资本投入显现出类似 2006 年房地产狂潮的非理性特征。科技巨头与下游模型企业在缺乏清晰投资回报率（ROI）模型的情况下，不计代价抢购算力与硬件。以寻求通过 IPO 上市的 Anthropic 为例，其目标估值高达 2 万亿至 2.4 万亿美元，却背负着至 2029 年对谷歌（1140 亿美元云服务及 1250 亿至 1500 亿美元 TPU 承诺）、亚马逊（1100 亿美元）等巨额不可撤销算力债务，且面临巨额亏损；相比之下，拥有成熟盈利造血能力的 Meta 估值反而低出约 5000 亿美元。主讲人指出，在下游模型公司承担高额商业化不确定性时，算力芯片（英伟达、AMD）及存储器等上游核心“卖铲人”才是确定性捕获超额现金流的群体。 半导体资本支出潮与 AMD 目标价模型 (27:14) 半导体板块的超级周期至少仍有两到三年才会因巨头资本开支断崖式收缩而彻底见顶。由于科技巨头、云厂商及筹备上市的初创企业弹药充沛，新一轮半导体牛市主升浪有望启动。主讲人提出，AMD 是这轮行情的核心领跑标的，其即将公布的财报中若在毛利率、营业利润率或每股收益指引上释放“震撼效应”，便能充当催化剂。在理性推演下，AMD 达到 1000 美元目标价的基准情形预计在 2030 年、牛市情形在 2028 年；但华尔街向来具备激进透支未来的机制，市场完全可能在未来六个月内提前透支这一增长红利。若股价极端逼近 1000 美元，投资者应警惕类似特斯拉或 Palantir 估值贴现完毕后长达数年“死钱”停滞的风险并考虑兑现收益。 消费分级下 Cheesecake Factory 的抗周期扩张 (14:59) 在高通胀与就业市场走弱的挤压下，美国餐饮业遭遇大规模关店潮，消费者信心跌至历史低点，Olive Garden 等平庸平价连锁即便在大促销档期也客流惨淡。然而餐饮消费呈现严重分级，具备高品质体验的连锁品牌依然坚挺。Cheesecake Factory（CAKE）不仅旗舰门店具备穿越周期的现金流韧性，旗下孵化的 Flower Child（门店数计划从 50 多家扩张至 800 家）与 North Italia 更具备全国复制潜力。相较于同类高估值连锁 Cava（远期市盈率约 54 倍），CAKE 远期市盈率仅约 23 倍，且 Flower Child 最新季度 13% 的同店销售增速超越了 Cava 的 9%，呈现出显著的安全边际与折价优势。 悲观情绪错杀下的 Wynn Resorts 与 RH 逆向买点 (34:59) 贯彻“在别人恐惧时贪婪”的逆向准则，主讲人重点分析了被市场过度抛售的永利度假村（WYNN）与家居零售商 RH。Wynn Resorts 过去一年大跌 41.5%，市场担忧通胀、油价及中东地缘政治，但其核心客群以国际超高净值人群为主，对差旅与油价成本毫不敏感；公司更已通过发行 2035 年到期的 9 亿美元优先票据置换 2027 年债务，且永利澳门也已将 2026 年到期债务延至 2034 年，完全扫清了近期偿债悬崖。中东阿联酋度假村项目定于 2027 年开业，有望迎来估值重估。类似地，RH 在成屋销售跌至 20 年低点的极度悲观环境中，其核心贷款（Term Loan B 与 B-2）在 2028 年前无到期压力，营运现金流与自由现金流已重返正值区间，基本面拐点正逐步确立。 主讲人强调，长期复利投资必须克服追逐短期行情的浮躁心理，当市场盲目为缺乏底线财务模型的 AI 概念买单时，应当保持清醒，转而逢低布局商业壁垒稳固、债务期限充裕且在至暗时刻被错杀的非 AI 价值资产。

主讲人 Jeremy 认为当前生成式人工智能的下游投资充斥着不计成本的泡沫特征，投资者应转向掌控硬件定价权的半导体“卖铲人”，并逆向布局被市场错杀的优质非 AI 资产。 长期复利视角与 AI 淘金热泡沫 (0:00) 主讲人主张用评估房地产的多年度长远眼光看待股票投资组合，忽视短期净值回撤。针对生成式 AI 赛道，他指出当下科技企业盲目抢购算力、不计投资回报率（ROI）的行为与 2006 年拉斯维加斯房地产泡沫如出一辙。以 Anthropic 为例，该公司秘密提交招股书并寻求超过 2 万亿美元的 IPO 估值，但其背负着至 2029 年数百亿美元不可撤销的云与硬件采购承诺（包括对 Google、Amazon 和 SpaceX 等的巨额协议），且仍处于巨额亏损状态。 相比之下，拥有数十亿活跃用户且持续产生庞大自由现金流的 Meta，其市值反而低于 Anthropic 的目标估值约 5,000 亿美元。主讲人强调，AI 技术本身具有变革性，但下游模型公司面临极高的商业化亏损风险；在这场淘金热中，最具确定性获利能力的是上游芯片和存储硬件等“卖铲人”。 半导体资本开支潮与 AMD 催化剂 (27:14) 主讲人预计，科技巨头和初创企业在未来一至两年内仍将借助充沛的现金流与融资维持激进的资本开支，半导体行业距离周期顶部仍有两到三年的时间窗口，期间芯片股至少还将迎来一至三轮爆发式行情。产业链上游的英伟达、AMD、台积电和存储厂商将持续受益。 针对超威半导体（AMD），主讲人认为其可能在即将到来的财报中，通过超预期的毛利率、营业利润率或年度指引形成催化。尽管基于基本面的基准模型推演 AMD 需到 2030 年才达到 1,000 美元目标价，但金融市场常通过提前透支（Front-running）多年增长红利的方式推升股价，使其在未来六个月内存在冲击 1,000 美元的潜在动能。若出现过度前置透支，主讲人倾向于在接近高位时分批锁定收益。 消费分层下的餐饮分化与优质连锁 (14:59) 美国餐饮业因通胀累积与就业岗位缩减遭受重创，但市场表现两极分化严重。平庸的低端连锁品牌（如 Olive Garden）在促销期依然客流惨淡，甚至面临被消费者抛弃的困境；而定位优质体验与健康概念的连锁则展示出强大韧性。 主讲人看好 Cheesecake Factory（CAKE），其远期市盈率约 23 倍，显著低于地中海快餐连锁 Cava 的 54 倍。其旗下健康餐饮品牌 Flower Child 最新季度同店销售增速达 13%，优于 Cava 的 9%，且规划从 50 余家门店长期扩张至 800 家。配合兼具全国复制潜力的 North Italia 以及具备抗周期现金流的旗舰品牌，CAKE 呈现出极高的安全边际与穿越周期的潜力。 逆向布局 Wynn Resorts 与 RH (34:59) 贯彻在恐慌中贪婪的逆向投资策略，主讲人重点分析了被市场过度惩罚的两家公司：永利度假村（Wynn Resorts）与高档家居零售商 RH。Wynn 的股价受地缘政治避险情绪与税务亏损抛售影响大幅受挫，但其核心客户为不具价格敏感度的高净值跨国客群。其阿联酋综合度假村计划于 2027 年开业，有望承接中东巨额财富；财务层面上，公司通过发行 2035 年到期的优先票据置换了 2027 年到期债务，消除了近期的流动性风险。 对于因房地产行业跌入 20 年低点而遭抛售的 RH，其主要贷款（Term Loan B 与 B-2）在 2028 年前并无到期偿还压力。平台数据显示其经营现金流与自由现金流正显著改善，营收与利润率逐步触底回升，为长期投资者提供了不对称的做多机会。 主讲人强调，当前市场在 AI 下游标的上积累了巨大的估值泡沫与资本开支不确定性，而半导体算力巨头以及因短期宏观悲观情绪被大幅折价的非 AI 龙头（如 Cheesecake Factory、Wynn Resorts 与 RH），在基本面与债务周期支撑下提供了更为优异的风险回报比。

[9:15] Jeremy: Listen, whenever you have individuals not caring about what price they're paying for something, you're in a bubble time period. [14:59] Jeremy: It doesn't matter if you're going through a recession, good economy, bad economy, okay economy, Cheesecake going to put up their numbers, they going to stay busy.

[0:00] If I'm like, oh, I'm... planning on putting the house up for sale and, you know, next year, you'd be like, okay, like we can think about the very short term in relation to that house in that price, right? But all that really matters is like, how did you accomplish that? And that's an incredible feat to do something like that, right? And then what is the value of that property going to be three, five, seven, 10 years from now, right? We'd be thinking about that. We'd be talking about that for context, right? But when you go outside of real estate, and you go to something like the stock market, you get these very weird, very weird conversations that And why is it like this, right? So you look at the public account, $4.96 million. You should say things like, how did you accomplish that? That's pretty amazing. Like, you know, what are the tricks? Like, how do you do this stuff, right? Um, or we could look at it and say, well, three weeks ago, the public count was $5.2 million. A quarter million dollars of value was lost in a three week span, right? Or we could look at where the public count was three years ago when it was 1.5 million. And so the public count since three years ago, right? Has climbed what? $3.4 million plus in value. That's a Pretty incredible accomplishment, right? And so like this is how we should be thinking more like real estate when you're thinking about your portfolio because it's very easy for people to get caught up. And I think it's because the price is always changing. They get very caught up into like what happened in the very short term with their portfolio and oh my gosh, I'm devastated and this and that. into 10 million. and then 10 million into 20 million. I'm thinking about the future, not like where the short term fluctuations are. 'Cause look at this is just over the past three years, the public count. Look at how many fluctuations, major fluctuations we've had just in the past three years of the public count, right? Now think about... For context, think about the public count over its entire history since 2018. Thank you. Whew, we've had some fluctuations there, right? And so it's very important you kind of look back and you think where you've come from, what you've been able to accomplish over the years, right? I think back to 2008, which is what, 18 years ago now at this point in time, right? And I think about when I was cleaning dishes, the back of Einstein bagels for $7.50 an hour, right? And from there, I got the job at Walgreens making $8.75 for an hour in the photo department. And we've come a long way, right? We've come a long dang way. And so I like to think about it over the whole time period, not just like, Where was a portfolio a few weeks ago or something like that? Because, you know, you're going to get, you're going to, what do they say? Something like, you know, don't, uh... just look at the trees, look at the forest, something like that, right? Take a 50,000 foot view above everything and you'll really get to see what's going on out there right uh by the way this was a top tier comment somebody left the other day on a video said i swear jeremy only has two photos from his past one where he's at quick trip and one he's taking a knee with the red borat onesie that's my old track photo right no i got the walgreens one as well okay but here's the thing like you know i wish i would have had a million photos taken of me and like you stock in this company if you want. Meanwhile, we have Meta continuing to go down. The stock's down about 17.5% just in the past two weeks. This is something I've called out with Meta, although I'm bullish on this company for the long term. If you've heard me talk about this company at all this year, I'm very bearish on the short term. And I've spoke countless times about this as a very range-bound stock in the short term, right? And so although I'm a long-term investor of the company and a huge believer over the next 5, 10 years, I'm not a believer in the short term, haven't been. And it just goes to show like every time in this company you think it's going to break to a new all-time high, you just are always let down, at least in the short term in relation to this company. I watched this video last night. It's up to 600,000 views, thousands of American restaurants closing over rising costs and declining sales. And it's a very weird time because you see stuff like that, right? And there's a truth of just like it's a very... I mean, it's been a brutal... whole span for restaurants. You know, really the 2020s has just sucked for the restaurant industry for the most part. You have Rona, so you had the government forced restaurants to close. Then you had the 2022 inflation hit that was insane, right? And then you had restaurant industry start to come back, and then you got hit with tariffs. You got hit with a new batch of inflation, an insanely weak consumer, and it's just been kind of brutal times. But then you have a stock like Cheesecake Factory, right? You would think to go to a thousand in the shorter term. Okay. We'll talk about how it gets there and kind of my thought process in relation to this. Okay. Four subjects we'll get into here today is two stocks that you got to get into now and not wait on these two particular stocks because people might take the approach of all I can wait six months on these or I can wait a year on these or two years on these. No, no. Okay. And I'll share my opinion perspective there. I need one thing one thing. [4:59] from only from you guys if you haven't already done so just please smash that like button on this video hit that little thumbs up icon make it glow and that's all i need from you also if you want to be subscribed to the channel certainly subscribe thousand x huge sales coming on halloween it's our last sale on any product in 2026 so pin comment down there will be for that i'll show you some things around thousand x later and on in the video okay already so you want to get rolling here. Anthropic. Here's the deal. Listen, the company's going public. Oh my gosh. So exciting. The ticker someone is one is going to be ant. It's just a baby ant, right? The company behind Claude confidentially filed with SEC in June, given the agency time to review its financials before they were made available to the public and prospective investors. Dario, the CEO of Anthropic, it's crazy. He co-founded this company in just 2021 with him and a few other researchers from open AI. That's insane. Insane, right? And I think now, though it recorded 3.9 billion in positive operating cash flow I don know about that Okay So yeah huge growth rates The bad thing is here they going to have to comp these next year Yeah That not going to be fun to comp a 1 year revenue growth number Okay that going to be a tough comp The company is aiming for a potential market valuation of $2 trillion or more. So we'll see where this one goes public. It could go $2 trillion, $2.2 trillion, $2.4 trillion, a crazy number. Basically, from the day this company goes public, it's going to be probably a top five biggest market cap in the world. Crazy. Absolutely crazy, right? Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are going to be behind the deal. So it should go decent. At least the very initial should go decent. But after that, we'll see. Staggering infrastructure and compute commitments. Building frontier AI requires monumental capital. Anthropics prospectus reveals hundreds of billions of dollars in non-cancelable cloud and compute obligations, including $114 billion owed to Google McDougal, plus $125 billion or $150 billion for TPUs, $110 billion to Amazon, about $45 billion to Microsoft, and $120 billion to SpaceX through 2029, right? So Meta entire market capitalization is trillion So we talking about probably a half a trillion dollars less than where Anthropic goes public or maybe even more than a half a trillion dollars less right What do you get for meta? You're getting Facebook, you're getting Instagram, you're getting WhatsApp, you're getting threads, you're getting the Muse AI, which we'll see how big of an opportunity that is over the long term, right? It started out very good, but we'll see. Maybe that's the next huge thing. Maybe it's not. I don't know. But the moral of the story is here, you're getting the most valuable businesses the world has really ever seen. It's incredible, the businesses. Facebook is a generational business. Generational business. Instagram's a generational business. WhatsApp, I mean, talking about billions of users using that to communicate around the world. Threads now has, from my understanding, Threads has now even overtaken X in terms of amount of users. It's incredible what they've been pulling off there. Right. And then Muse AI is off to a good start and we'll see if that ends up being a huge thing. But you're in that entire company and you're getting Zuckerberg who has proven he's been able to pivot because the big thing, if you're in business for a long time, you've got to prove that you can pivot your business. Just creating one business is not good enough You got to be able to get into new products and services over the years to keep your business relevant in moving for meta Just on a logic and obviously if I took you through the numbers, you'd be like, definitely does not make sense because meta makes fortunes of money and anthropic loses fortunes of money, right? And then we could say, okay, what about what's meta's revenue versus anthropic's revenue? Like we could compare it on a million different metrics and And don't matter what, you just always come to the conclusion of this makes no sense. This makes no sense. That's at this sort of valuation, right? Now, you're going to understand we're in an AI bubble right now, right? Now, it's not an AI bubble like a lot of people just draw it out to be in terms of like no one used AI. Like sure, AI is a huge thing. Everybody uses AI, right? And it's going to continue to be used and used more in the future. But it's a bubble in the sense of people are willing to pay anything for the chips, right? They're not even thinking about the cost. And that's the one major sign that you're in a bubble time period. Listen, this is very important I explain this because if you really want to know if you're in a bubble time, let me really break it down for you, okay? Listen, whenever you have individuals not caring about what price they're paying for something, you're in a bubble time period. [9:59] Bubble. Okay, that does not mean the bubbles about to pop bubbles can go on for years. But whenever people are like, I don't care the cost, just give me it. Bubble, okay? That's not right. So if I took you back to, you know, the real estate bubble, I live in Las Vegas, almost any price and people are willing to pay for it and buy a second, third, fourth, fifth house because home prices were appreciating so much. It was like you could go buy a house for $400,000. And the thought process was, I don't care if I pay $400,000 because Six months from now, that house is going to be worth $450,000 and I'm going to make a $50,000 profit. Right. Or, you know, if you if you were your own realtor, because a lot of realtors were also in the business of doing this as well. Right. And they get financing cheap and they don't have to pay the commissions and all that like. Boom. And so you just people weren't even thinking straight. And that's exactly what's going on right now. These CEOs, these companies, they're not thinking straight. I don't know if you guys seen the newest interview with Zuckerberg and. his guy there. Those guys aren't thinking straight. They're just spending like crazy because they – I think there's a huge opportunity and there's just whatever, right? And the CFO comes to them and is like, hey, guys, if we don't get our ROI here, this is going to be bad because we're spending so much money. This is ridiculous, right? And then it's like, well, maybe. Maybe we might get it. I don't know. We'll see what happens. Hope for the best. They're not thinking straight. No one's thinking straight. When you've got people just begging, Jensen, please sell me chips because I just need chips, right? And you have no financial model to make sure this even pays off, even – The hot one and then open AI is a hot one that it moves all around. There's probably gonna be some company that comes out of nowhere over the next few years that no one even is thinking about right now that will make Anthropic look like Yahoo. Right. I mean, it's very, very possible. Right. So, so, When you're in a gold rush, and we're in a gold rush right now, you want to be the one selling the picks and shovels. And so the two companies that are the picks and shovels of this whole game are NVIDIA, certainly. We all know that, right? And the one that's really starting to come on now and will come on in a major way over the next few years is AMD. The only one's really, like, guaranteed to get insane ROIs right now, right? Because everybody else is willing to bow down to them and say, we'll pay whatever price. We just need your chips, please, to hope us... to try to fulfill whatever we're trying to fulfill, right? And the memory companies are also in a position of power too. They're not in as big of a position of power longer term as NVIDIA and AMD are, but they're still in a position of power as well, right? But when you're in a gold rush, man, sell the picks and shovels. And because a lot of these companies are going to end up just wasting – monumental amounts of money and we'll never even get remotely close to a return on this. Maybe Anthropics is the one. Maybe that's the one that goes from, let's say they go public at $2.2 trillion. Maybe that's the one five years from now, it's a $10 trillion company. It's like, whoa, Anthropics, they got the ROI on it. Wow, they really did it. or maybe it's not what their business model is going to look like long term or anything like that. I mean, it's just this is silliness. OK. And so if they went public at some sort of normal valuation, I think it would be very, very intriguing. But when you're talking about you want a $2 trillion plus valuation on a company that was just founded a few years ago, that we have no conception of what their financial model is going to look like long term. silliness, man. Absolute silliness. But that's what's going on out there. And so... It is what it is. And, um... You know, could I buy an anthropic stock someday? Yeah, potentially. There's no reason why I couldn't. But I ain't buying another dang IPO. I can tell you that much. No, thank you. Okay. By the way, and that also doesn't mean it can't be a successful stock, you know, in the first month of trading. Like, who knows, maybe they go public at 2.4 trillion. And then the next thing you know, the stock goes up initially is 2.8 trillion, right? Like you don't know what could happen, but the moral of the story is I don't know. Thank you. No, thank you. Because there's so many. If you think about it from a shorter term basis, there's so many stocks that go up dramatically more on a shorter term basis in Anthropic. Everything about a longer term basis. There's so many companies I can think of that have a much more attractive risk reward than Anthropic over the next five or 10 years as well. That's that. Okay. Next up here, let's talk about why cake is so great. Then we'll get into AMD 1000 and then we'll talk about these and all this stuff and like sounds like could they go under? That's like, that's crazy. You know, that's crazy that something like that happens and it hits home and it's like, man, we used to go there and have so many good times and these sorts of things, right? I ended up stopping and going there many years ago because I just found, like, in my personal opinion, the quality had fallen off a little bit. In my personal opinion, right? And I don't know. Maybe that was other people's opinion as well. Maybe they haven't been as busy. I don't know what the situation is there. But the moral of the story is here, you know, you've seen this sort of stuff. And it's like it's pretty high. [14:59] opening, right? Then you have something like cake and cake $110 a share when it was 30 bucks just a few years ago, right? And it's like, what is going on here, right? Well, a few things, right? One, consumer confidence is awful. We all know this, right? Like people just don't, like most people just don't have the money to go out to restaurants, right? And go get a filet mignon at Echo and Rig. And they just don't have a lot of money to go out to these restaurants in general and go drop, you know, I mean, you take a family out to a restaurant, like a sit down restaurant, you could easily be a hundred to $200 deep. And I'm not even talking about going to a fancy place. I'm not even talking about going to an echo and rig. I'm just talking about going to a basic restaurant. You take a family out, you're easily a hundred, $200 deep. And you want to go fancy place with a family. It hurts more because you already went through the first wave. The first wave was at 2022 it really started in 21 but 2022 is when it really made headlines and everybody got smashed by that right but that you could get through this new wave of inflation we've really been dealing with for the last year or so this one hurt i think a lot more even though the raw number is less just because you already went through the first wave And so now the consumers already had a weakened place The jobs markets already been weakened right The amount of job openings now in the economy versus you know 2022 is a lot less like millions less jobs, right? And so it's just a weaker picture. So then when you get hit with that next wave, it's no fun, right? But the thing you got to understand about stocks, very important you understand this stocks are forward-looking right so although consumer sentiment's in the dumpers right now the stock market can look out six months 12 months and be like well it's so bad right now it's you know pretty close to the worst we've ever seen uh and it's crazy it's crazy because you know these were the bide numbers at the biden lows in 2022 right and like i i didn't know if anybody would ever get worse than that right and so trump has done suddenly worse than that. And that's crazy to me because this was the lowest consumer sentiment ever was, ever. I'm talking great financial crisis. They've been doing the survey since like the 60s. And this was the worst. And it was like, no one could ever beat that. And then Trump 2 comes along and expanding all of the United States of America And how often do you ever get this This almost never happens To have even one concept that you could take across the whole United States of America and it going to have great revenues great margins, great profitability per restaurant, that's tough, man, like brutally tough. And they've got that with Flower Child. They're talking about they could expand that to 800 locations long-term. Right now they're at, I think, 50-something locations, right, less than 100 locations right now. They're talking about taking it to 800 long-term and having a great margin profile on that, that's hard to do. And they've got it, right? And then North Italia, to a lesser extent than this, but they're going to be able to expand this in all different nice areas around the entire United States, right? That's a freakish opportunity there. You just don't get this. Two concepts that you're going to expand across the entire United States and are going to be able to put up great revenue numbers each year, great margins, and great profitability per restaurant, that's difficult man and that's what you're getting with cake but then additionally you get the atm machine which is cheesecake factory which that's one of the very few restaurant concepts that is strong regardless of the economy it doesn't matter if you're going through a recession good economy bad economy okay economy cheesecake going to put up their numbers they going to stay busy they one of the very few that can actually do it like that And so 1 during that time Now along that ride there was a lot of crashes in the stock It had to go through the great financial crisis right here. Stock got hammered. It went through a growth scare in like 2013 here, 2012, 2013, got hammered. Went through a health scare here that was awful. That was like a 20, you know, really like 2016, 2017 thing, right? Went through Rona. All of a sudden, next thing you know, offices were closed and people thought like, oh, no one's going to go eat at Chipotle anymore, right? So stock crashed in the short term. It had an inflation crash of 2022. And despite all that, the stock still ended up going up 6,500%, right? Even with five major crashes in there and a bunch of minor crashes in there as well, right? What a run. If we think about Starbucks, Starbucks, you know, from 1992 to 2019, it went through a phase of international expansion, domestic expansion, right? Where it went from, you know, you probably never heard of Starbucks in 1992. And by 2019, Starbucks was one of the most famous companies in the world, right? And everybody knows Starbucks. And during that time period, Starbucks stock went up 27%. [19:59] 7,000 percent, 27,000 percent. That does not mean cheesecakes going up 6,500 percent. or uh 27 000 but the moral of the story is here you can see how big these runs can be when you've got remember with both those concepts that was only one concept That was incredibly successful. Cheesecakes got two. Now, do they have anything as big as Starbucks was? No. That's why the stock's not going up 27,000%, right? Or do they have anything as big as Chipotle? I don't think so. Flower Child is incredibly successful, but I don't think it's a 6,500% type opportunity, right? It's just like... maybe a 500% or 1,000% type opportunity, which is still huge, right? Now, if you compare cheesecake versus cava, cava is a $6.25 billion market cap. Cheesecake is a 5.39, right? So you're actually getting – and I actually don't think cava is at the – I don't think CAV is at the worst valuation right now. I think CAV is actually decently attractive. But the moral of the story is here, you're getting a substantial discount buying Cheesecake Factory stock today than buying Cava stock, right? And Cheesecake's been a hot stock for the last several years, and Cava's actually been cold, right? Now, check this out. You're getting a forward P on cake of about 23. We're looking at 1000xstocks.com. This is one of our features. This is our compare feature where you can compare three companies side by side, right? Our dopamine, that's the watch list, so you can create multiple watch lists for your stocks. Search is just really focusing in on one stock and metrics and things like that, right? which was just upgraded, I'll show you that in a moment. We have our reports are, Oh, the reports are insane. We can even do it like a hedge fund level report, financials projections. We have regular and advanced earnings and we have all our education portions of thousand X as well. So once again, that sale will be the pinned comment down there to get access to that for when we send it over on Halloween, but look at the forward P on cake 23 versus Cav is out of 54, right? So less than half, less than half the cakes, a forward P then versus Kevin, right? So, In theory, CAVA should be growing minimum to x the growth rate right and it's not it's growing roughly let's call it 80 percentage faster somewhere around their ballpark right and also remember cake's got a big established old business so if it wasn't for that the growth rates would actually be much faster uh for cake overall than you know what's showing here on the surface right so you're getting actually cake at an insane discount if you compare it versus something like kava right now you might say well maybe kava's or sales are a lot stronger than let's say flower child 'cause the most direct comp to CAVA would be flower child. Look at this. Same-store sales growth recent quarter, 9% for CAVA. Flower child's at 13%. It's growing faster. Same store sales, right? That's incredible. So it's not really to pick on Kava because like I said, I don't think Kava is at the worst valuation right now. This is really just to open your eyes and really realize that Actually, even here, even though cake has gone up so much, it's actually at a significant discount still. And that's why you don't see me cash and shares of cake. Like, you know, where am I cash and shares of public? You know, like I have no interest, no interest. Like, oh, I'm going to sell my shares in the public account. No, no, thank you. I'm good because I'm still getting those shares are still at a discount. versus other opportunities in the market, right? No, back to the restaurant industry. Listen, this was like, was this a week ago, two weeks ago, something like that. I told my boys because my wife was out of town with our youngest. And so I had my two older boys. I said, where do you guys want to go to dinner tonight? My oldest had been seeing never ending possible commercials on TV. So he said, I want to go to Olive Garden. Okay, son, we'll go to Olive Garden. And so I was saying, Just so you know, just be ready. We might have to wait a while for a table, right? Because we went there on a Sunday night. And so I was definitely not looking forward to Olive Garden. Like, nah. Think about it. I live in one of the greatest cities in the world for restaurants, Las Vegas. Like, oh my gosh, the amount of good food we have in Vegas is just not even fair. And then we had to go to Olive Garden. Come on. But anyways. So I warned him about that. So we get there, I get to the parking lot. Now we arrived a little early. It's probably about 5:30, 5:45. So But still, like, the parking lot was kind of dead. I'm like, oh, we're just going to get a table. We're not even going to have to wait. Oh, okay. So, yeah, they sat us right down. tons of tables available right and um We ate our whole dinner and we were there until probably, I don't know, maybe 6:45, 7 o'clock. And even at 645-7, which is, you know, usually the absolute busiest for restaurants, I'm Even then, they didn't have a weight. On a Sunday night for Olive Garden during the Never Ending Possible. This is like their big promotion they do every year. The Never Ending Possible... I was like, oh, [24:59] That's. Interesting, right? Like that's not a good sign. I don't think for the economy necessarily. I don't think it's a good sign actually for Olive Garden. I don't think it's a good sign for restaurant industry. I'm just like, geez, man. But here's the thing. Then dinner for Myself and my two oldest boys ended up being after tip. We don't spend $95, 95 for the three of us, right? Bad food quality, bad. And so that's where those type of places, you know, I think that fits a lot of restaurants where the quality for the price, people just can't justify it. Like I won't go back to Olive Garden for years, no interest, right? The quality is just so bad. I would like. So you have two dynamics. You have people that they just can't afford to go out and spend ninety five dollars on an olive garden. Like, no, not for three people. Not you just can't do it. Right. So you have a certain amount of Americans that just are not in the financial position right now because they've been sliced and diced by inflation for years. They can't go out to eat. Then you have another segment that can afford to go out to eat. People like myself that would say, We're not going to freaking Olive Garden. I'd much rather go to North Italia, spend an extra $5 an entree, maybe $7 extra an entree, With the three of us, I don't even think we would have spent more money. I think we would have got out of North Italia for around the same price. And vastly better quality. Like, not even close. The quality of North Italia's Italian food versus Olive Garden is a night and day difference. Like you'd be like, this is not even on the same playing field. And I don't think we would have spent more than $100 at North Italia for the three of us. I think it would have been somewhere right around what we spent at Olive Garden. Think about that for a moment. So that's where, at the end of the day, capitalism, right? is going to decide the winners and losers. In places that you don't have the food quality, in a weaker economy where people can't just all go out and afford. Like I, I feel like, you know, I'll tell you about the best economy. I felt like truly the best economy I ever seen in my life. It was really that 2017 to 2019 economy we had, right? And I just remember, man, going... Anywhere it was like so busy. It seemed like like every restaurant was packed big wait times all the time even on weekdays and A lot of the same places I go nowadays just aren't busy like that. But that was a truly strong economy. I don't feel like we're in a truly strong economy now. I feel like we're in a – if I compare it to that economy, like if you look at the economic numbers, you'd be like, oh, this is a better economy. It's not. We're way weaker. The average person, dramatically weaker than what we had back in that 2017 to 2019 economy. Like Trump 1.0 economy, banging. Trump 2.0, a new pair of Nikes or a new pair of Hoka or whatever they want. But it's not right now. I talked to you guys about Decker's numbers. I don't know if you guys saw Decker's numbers last week. They came out. They own Hoka and a few other shoe brands. They just had to take down their whole revenue guide. We know Lululemon's numbers are bad. We know Nike's numbers are bad. It's just shaky out there, man. It's a very shaky economy. I'll tell you that much. The weak ones will not make it. They will not make it. Okay. Speaking about companies that are not weak, and that's AMD, right? AMD, so let's talk about this one, $1,000, how do we get there? Okay, so listen. First off, This stock is a long way from $1,000. As of right now, it's $500-something. But I actually think there's a decent probability the stock goes to $1,000 within the next six months. And so how does that even happen? Right? Like, like how, how am I even in a thought? First off, am I even going to place any bets on this lesson? No, no, I'm not going to be like, oh, I already have several million dollars invested in AMD. 0% interest. In me going and saying, you know, I'm going to go ahead and buy short term call options or something like that, like or invest extra money because I think it's going to go to a thousand and, you know, it's got a decent potential to go to a thousand in the next six months or more. No, thank you. I'm good. Thank you very much. But I think it actually has a decent chance of getting up there. And here's why. Okay. And I know this sounds crazy at first because it's like it's so far away. Right. One, I believe there's going to be another bull run that happens in the semiconductor stocks. Right. So I believe AMD is going to benefit the most from this next bull run. But the death of all the semiconductor stocks has been greatly exaggerated. Okay. Okay. these [29:59] The Hawks have at least one to three more bull runs before this cycle ends. comes to a conclusion, in my personal opinion. So what do I mean by Seiko coming to a conclusion? I mean we have the last hurrah where it's like, okay. The CapEx numbers are going to start slowing down big time. or maybe even going down, right? That still is two to three years away, okay? And so... In between now and when that day comes, I think we can have minimum one to potentially three more bull cycles in the semiconductors, where those stocks will have major momentum for a three to six month span and just... Ripper rallies where everybody's like, whoa, the semiconductor stocks are all hot again, right? So I believe the next cycle starts probably in November, goes to about April roughly, right? Now, there's always a risk you could get a 2018 where the market just downtrends October, November, December, right? That's not my base case, but it is something I'm mentally preparing everybody for just in case that happens. But the higher probability is that it doesn't happen. when it comes to semiconductors. Remember, we're going to get everybody's capex numbers, These companies... are spending everything they got coming in, plus taking out debt, issuing capital. They got the money, at least in the short term. I don't know if they got the money. They're not going to have the money to keep upping these numbers in a crazy way. two years from now and three years from now but they certainly got it for at least the next one to two okay and so Anthropics about to raise a bunch of money. They might raise 100 billion or something like that. They're going to have that around plus what they already have. OpenAI obviously is going to probably IPO within the next six months. They'll be flush with money. SpaceX, we know what they're spending. Meta, we know they're spending every dime they got coming in, which is a lot of money. And they're going to be taking out debt or issuing shares for that. We know that. Amazon makes so much money and they're spending every dime they are coming in. More, right? Google's doing the same. Microsoft's doing the same. So We're still in, you know... the best error to ever be a semiconductor company that's dealing in this space so that means nvidia amd and the memory chip stocks right ntsmc certainly benefits as well so The moral of the story is we get another bull run. So that alone will propel AMD substantially. That's the one that benefits the most from the next bull run, okay? Because that's the one you really got to be in. All right. Then we have earnings coming November 3rd, right? that's the earnings we should get a shock and awe of some kind. Now, a lot of people assume it has to be a revenue shock and awe. In regards to last quarter or the future quarter, it doesn't have to be a revenue shock and awe, okay? It can be a margin shock and awe, where either their margin for last quarter or the next quarter, like the margin guide, knocks everybody's socks off, either on a gross margin front or like an operating margin front or a net margin front. People are like, whoa, that's way better, way better margins than we thought it was going to be. It could be... an earnings per share shock and awe, right? It could be some sort of guidance they put out for next year, maybe early. That's like a rough range that everybody's like, wait, what? They just kind of did a rough guide to what? There's many different shock and awe you can get, but all you need is one, One number, one metric that everybody says, whoa, that's way better than we thought it was going to be. You need one thing. If you get multiple, then we're really off to the races, but all you need is one thing. If Lisa Su's got one thing she can say on that conference call, Or in the report that knocks everybody's socks off and they're like, whoa, it's way better than we thought. Boom. You're off to the races again. Right. And so – If you already have a semiconductor bull cycle going on and then you get that on top, that's just like an accelerant. Now, let me show you my projections for AMD for the next few years. I don't know if you guys have seen this or not. But under my bull case, my bull case is a lower probability that happens. I have the stock going to $1,000 in 2028. Under my base case, I have the stock going to $1,000 in 2030. Now, here's what you've got to understand about this. - When we're talking about base case and bold cases, I'm running those with like the stock market being practical, right? The stock market's not practical, right? It's not how it works. The stock market is very impractical. It doesn't work logically. And so these companies will run up the valuation way before they should. We just spoke about Anthropic earlier in this video, did we not? Should Anthropic be at a $2 trillion-something valuation with $16 billion of revenue and massive losses and crazy spend, right? And let's say even on a revenue run rate of 100 billion, should they be at a $2 trillion [34:59] No, that doesn't make sense. But, the stock market front runs things. So with a stock like AMD, I think that stocks should go to 1,000 over the next few years. That's not the way the stock market works. It prices in a lot for the future. Right. And so AMD could easily go to a thousand in the next six months or somewhere roughly up toward a thousand. Right. and price in a lot of the future growth. And so that's why even I look at a stock like that, and it's like if it goes closer and closer to 1,000, I'll cast shares because that just is like pulling forward a lot of my gains essentially. This happens in the stock market all the time. Palantir is a good example. Like Palantir has pulled a lot of gains forward. Like Palantir hit 200 last year, 200 plus. And I looked at that stock and I'm like, it's pulled a lot of gains forward. um You know, it's pulled a lot of the future gains already. It's already there, right? And I could take you across so many different stocks that happens. It happens all the time. Look at Tesla. Tesla's been dead money now for five years, right? The valuation ran up so much on Tesla, it pulled so many gains forward. And now the stock's been dead money for five years now at this point in time, right? And so that's just something to kind of keep in mind there. So... you know, AMD's business model probably doesn't peak till Uh... I don't know, maybe 2028 or 2029. But could the stock price peak next year? Sure. This is possible. Like, you know, if A&B goes to $1,000 or $1,500 next year, there could be a peak. Right? Even though the business model doesn't peak for at least another year or two after that, maybe even three years after that. Stocks, stocks don't work in a practical manner when it comes to when you think it should be at evaluation it doesn't work like that okay especially with semiconductor stocks man semiconductor stocks are food they're crazy okay all right next up here let's talk about two stocks to get into not wait on in my personal opinion that I'm actively buying right now okay so I'm sure you guys have heard the saying before, Warren Buffett, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Right. So. So. I take that in the stock market. I like to look for opportunities when other people don't see the opportunities. They're like, oh, don't give me that stock. I don't want that. Right. And I like to stay away when everybody in the grandma wants to stop anthropic. Right. Oh, my gosh. So much hype, so much excitement. Let's put it at a three trillion dollar valuation. Like, oh, we don't need the anthropic. Right. SpaceX. Oh, like, it's just ridiculous. Right. And meanwhile, you have other stocks that... People don't want a piece of at a particular time, right? And so I like to look for those situations when I think I can find assets that no one else wants at a particular time. Palantir. No one wanted Palantir when I was buying Palantir. I have Palantir shares at seven and change. No one wanted that stock. The stock was $40 a couple years before that, and next thing you know, it's $7. No one wanted that stock. It was thrown out. It was forgotten. Right. And I'm like, I think I see a big opportunity here. Meta. I was buying Meta shares for under one hundred dollars a share in twenty twenty two. No one want a meta. AMD a couple of years ago. I'm buying AMD for a hundred. No one wants AMD. Now everybody wants AMD, right? And so I like to look for these opportunities when like, People don't think it exists, right? A lot of that goes back to understanding numbers and the math around what future net incomes could be and margins could be in investor psychology, coming back to these stocks and getting valuation re ratings. Okay. And so there's a couple opportunities I see out there right now that I want to load up our shares over the next few months of. And one of those is Winning resorts. Win resorts. No one wants a piece of win resorts right now. It's obvious. The stock's down 41.5% over the past year, right? It could face some tax loss harvesting at the end of the year as well. No one wants any piece of wind stock. And I'm out there looking at wind, and I'm like... I want as many win shares I can get my hands on over the next few months. So what do I see here that no one else sees? Well, They've got a property that's supposed to open next year, 2027, in the Middle East. Now, No one wants a piece of anything Middle East related right now. Okay. We know what's going on in the Middle East and like everybody's like anti like, oh, that seems like a big risk. Like, oh, I opened up a property and I'm like, do you know how much money is in the Middle East? And do you think, you know. It's just ridiculous, right? But everybody runs these like worst case scenarios They don't open their eyes to what the longer term opportunity is there. And they take a very pessimistic view. And so that's exactly what's happened. So Wynn has been massively penalized. by this Middle East property that hasn't even opened yet, it's going to open next year, by just like what's going on with the geopolitical situation, right? And... [39:59] I think it's an incredible opportunity. When Marina revealed they're going to have a super yacht gateway for this as well, right? like I don't think people understand how much money is in the Middle East. I really don't think. they should just Do a little research. I do just a little bit of research. Like and figure out like how much money's in the Middle East and figure out how many Europeans with big money love to vacation in the Middle East. and, you know, have residences in the Middle East, not like... *sigh* I think it's a big opportunity, man. You know? And so... I live in Vegas. You guys know that, right? I go to the Wynn quite often. I would say I go to the Wynn... At least once a month. at least once a month. Sometimes we go to zero bond at the wind. Sometimes I'll go just on the wind side or sometimes on the encore side. You know, and I'll go in the high limit room, right? And I don't, you know, if I'm going to play anything, it's like very short term. Like I'll bet like $300 on a roulette real quick or something like that. I'm not trying to hang out. and play for hours and hours like people do, because you guys already know, like my wealth fluctuates so much on a daily basis that it would take so much money. For me to get the hit of dopamine that these other people get is ridiculous. When I go to those high limit rooms, right? You got to understand people, are gambling hundreds of thousands or millions of dollars in these high limit rooms. Okay? They're playing with $5,000, $10,000 chips and stacks of them. Right. sometimes even more than that. When I go into those rooms, the I'm the American in the room. There's no other Americans in the room. Like it's all Chinese... or Europeans. Right? or Middle Easterns. And this is in America. I have to win Las Vegas, okay? And, like, I'm the one American in the place, and I'm betting the least amount of money, right? And so you've got to understand the international base. The company has. And the amount of high net worth individuals that's in their, you know, in their books. It's incredible. And it's from all over the world. And so you've got to understand, like... Not everybody wants to go on vacation in Vegas all the time. Vegas is great. My city, like people come here from all over the world, right? But at the same time, sometimes people like to go to Macau. and gamble. And we know the Macau numbers are insane. And we know the wind properties in Macau are incredible, right? And sometimes people like to go to the Middle East. and go to Dubai or go to another place in the Middle East and gamble. Or not gamble because you usually can't do that there. But go vacation. and go with Lots of money. And now you're going to have this one epic resort. that knows how to do this better than anybody knows how to do it. Like no one knows how to run a high end, Casino better than the wind. We know they're the creme de la creme. They're the top tier, man. That's why they attract all this money. Because you got to understand, people with money can go anywhere. Like, all those people... In the high limit room? When I go in there, they could go anywhere in the world on vacation. Anywhere. They go gamble in any casino in the world. These people got like unlimited amounts of money. And yet they choose to do it at the win. and so you gotta understand this is a very special company with a very special customer base right And then when stock price is also negatively caught up in this right now, gas prices are really high right now. So people are like, oh, maybe not as many people are going to drive to. Vegas. Sure, and that can affect the lower end properties But this doesn't affect when. This doesn't affect Wynn. Like, dude, the guy that's coming with a $50,000 gambling budget for the Wynn in Encore... He's not worried about if gas is a dollar more expensive. That's just not how this works. He's not worried if the flight's $200 extra. Like dude's going with a quarter million dollars. Like what are we talking about here? Right. That's not Wins customer. If Wins doesn't have the type of customers that are worried about a gas prices are a little higher than usual or a flight's like extra like that's not what that's not what how it works, man. The lower properties. Absolutely. Like the guy that usually drives in from LA, If he looks at gas prices and he has to pay $7 at the gas station in L.A., he might say, you know what, I can't go to Paris, Paris in Las Vegas. I can't do it, right? That's not Wings customer base. Come on, man. So that's just silliness, right? So then the other worries around gas. interest rates right now are really high, right? Well, What about Wynn's debt, right? Wynn completely eliminated its closest major debt hurdle by refinancing its 2027 senior notes early, In September 2026, the company issued $900 million in senior notes due 2035 to fully redeem at 5.25%. Notes were originally due in 2027. In 2025, its subsidiary Wynn Macau similarly cleared its 2026 obligations, pushing them out to 2034. Okay? [44:59] So, They have some notes here in 2028. They have some in 2029, some in 2030, right? And then 2031, 2033, 2034, 2035. So between now and over the next several years, if interest rates go down, they have a lot of opportunities to refinance debt if they want at lower rates. Of course, if you're of the assumption that rates only go higher, you're going to have a lot of opportunities to refinance debt. For all of eternity, that could be a negative, but I'm not of that belief. I don't think the economy stays in a good enough place for rates to just keep going up and up and up. I think that would be pretty darn devastating. So moral of the story is here, Wynn's an incredible opportunity across the board. And all the things that are bringing the stock price down short term. are all going to be things that people will realize over the next one to two years. That was dumb. And when stock price, in my opinion, 2027, 2028, 2028, probably into 2029, goes on an incredible run, and then people realize, oh, that big sell-off that happened was silly, and it was a great buying opportunity. The second stock of these two is this one. It's RH. It's the newest stock in the public count, right? So far, I'm $5,600 on the stock in the public count. This is one that a lot of people can't see right now, and I understand it, right? But this is another one. People are worried about debt. 2028, their term loan is a 2028 situation. RH's primary long-term debt obligation stems from a $2 billion term loan. Loan B secured in October 2021. An incremental $500 million loan term loan B2 secured in May 2022. Both tranches are scheduled to mature in about two years. points. that debt at hopefully much lower rates, right? And then they have a 2030 situation. So you're still looking at several years out for RH, right? This is our new charts feature on 1000X. Oh my gosh, the amount of charts we have on there, it looks insane, right? But RH is in a situation where revenue should increase quite substantially over the next one to two years. Their margins have already started to increase and should increase more over the next one to two years. Earnings per share should be increasing. This is a projected earnings per share over the next couple of years here, right? And this shows you their current operating cash flow and free cash flow and how much that has improved versus obviously huge free cash flow losses, operating losses, you know, just a couple of years ago. So everything's already headed back in the right direction for that one. And that's another situation I look at and I'm like, when do you want to buy? You know, we spoke about. being greedy when others are fearful, right? I mean, does it get more fearful than this? Like, look at the headlines you're seeing. Pending home sales hit 20%.