Cuban Urges Employers to Audit Health Contracts With AI to Break PBMs
Erik Torenberg, Julie Yoo, Mark Cuban
The commercial health insurance model would collapse without legislation if self-insured employers used artificial intelligence to audit vendor contracts and strip out hidden spread pricing before signing.
Mark Cuban urges self-insured employers to audit every healthcare benefit contract with multi-LLM pipelines, arguing automated audits would dismantle legacy PBM and carrier spread-pricing schemes that exploit 1,000+ page contracts. (0:00)
Cost Plus Drugs is expanding from transparent generic retail distribution into automated domestic manufacturing pods, aiming to deploy $20 million shipping-container robotic units that turn around production in 4 hours. (5:00)
Cuban proposes dismantling traditional employer insurance by redirecting commercial premiums into interest-bearing medical savings accounts backed by catastrophic government stop-loss and guaranteed loans. (50:00)
Antitrust and transparency legislative priorities should focus on mandating public disclosure of all contracts involving taxpayer funds and enacting nationwide cash-to-deductible parity rules. (47:19)
Detailed notes
## Background
Published on October 28, 2026, by Erik Torenberg and a16z General Partner Julie Yoo across podcast platforms and the web, this episode features entrepreneur Mark Cuban discussing his plan to reform healthcare. According to the episode description, Cuban explores how AI can expose opaque pricing and predatory benefits contracts, the business model behind Cost Plus Drugs, the future of personalized medicine, and why founders must use AI as an active learning tool rather than an excuse to stop thinking.
## TL;DR
Mark Cuban presents a transparency-driven attack on entrenched healthcare intermediaries, arguing that self-insured employers can immediately save millions by feeding 1,000-page legacy benefits contracts into LLMs to expose spread pricing and hidden administrative fees. He explains the scaling strategy behind Cost Plus Drugs—ranging from transparent direct-to-hospital marketplace markups to automated, deployable robotic manufacturing pods—while dismissing payer-provider AI 'bot wars' as superficial posturing. Looking forward, Cuban forecasts that frontier AI models will drive the marginal cost of custom N-of-1 pharmaceutical design to zero, requiring physical robotic infrastructure to compound bespoke therapies. To fix systemic financing, he advocates mandatory public transparency on taxpayer-funded healthcare contracts and proposes replacing predatory health insurance premiums with interest-bearing, guaranteed personal medical accounts protected by catastrophic federal stop-loss.
## Atmosphere & style
The conversation is fast-paced, combative, and intensely practical, driven by Cuban's trademark directness, colorful vernacular, and unvarnished frustration with legacy healthcare cartels. Julie Yoo provides structured, domain-deep venture counterpoints that anchor Cuban's sweeping entrepreneurial ambitions in real-world regulatory and clinical workflows. Listening feels like sitting in on a private whiteboard session where billionaire street smarts meet health-tech strategy, moving fluidly from trench-level dissections of PBM contract traps to sweeping, audacious predictions about autonomous agent swarms and personalized medicine.
## Bulletin
- `00:00` Mark Cuban urges self-insured employers to audit every healthcare benefit contract with multi-LLM pipelines, arguing automated audits would dismantle legacy PBM and carrier spread-pricing schemes that exploit 1,000+ page contracts.
- `05:00` Cost Plus Drugs is expanding from transparent generic retail distribution into automated domestic manufacturing pods, aiming to deploy $20 million shipping-container robotic units that turn around production in 4 hours.
- `50:00` Cuban proposes dismantling traditional employer insurance by redirecting commercial premiums into interest-bearing medical savings accounts backed by catastrophic government stop-loss and guaranteed loans.
- `47:19` Antitrust and transparency legislative priorities should focus on mandating public disclosure of all contracts involving taxpayer funds and enacting nationwide cash-to-deductible parity rules.
## Key takeaways
- `00:00` UnitedHealth and major legacy carriers disguise true healthcare costs through complex webs of subsidiaries and tens of billions in opaque intercompany transfers.
- `16:35` Payer-provider bot wars over prior authorization and claims denials are low-yield distractions compared to auditing agreements before signing.
- `20:00` Running municipal and corporate health benefits contracts through competing AI models exposes millions in spread pricing, data-blocking clauses, and hidden administrative fees.
- `12:44` Administrative Services Only (ASO) platforms block access to 837 claim files and 835 remittance data to prevent employers from auditing true costs.
- `22:45` Automated domestic generic drug manufacturing using modular robotic pods can be cheaper on a unit basis than foreign sourcing, despite steep FDA ANDA filing fees.
- `27:30` Entry-level human workers remain indispensable in an AI-driven economy to provide real-time context, verify edge cases, and supply operational judgment.
- `30:00` Autonomous agent swarms will compress business development lifecycles, but they require novel infrastructure like pipelines parsing social media ads directly into personal agents.
- `32:48` AI tools can empower patients by decoding Explanation of Benefits statements and automatically matching personal finances with mandatory hospital charity care tiers.
- `36:08` The marginal design cost of N-of-1 personalized pharmaceutical compounds will approach zero as frontier AI models integrate directly with DNA sequencing and automated robotic synthesis.
- `40:00` Physicians will not be replaced by AI; clinical practice will evolve toward becoming physician-scientists who translate probabilistic model outputs with real-time bedside empathy.
- `42:47` The Jevons paradox suggests that lowering the cost of digital diagnostic and clinical guidance will dramatically increase overall demand for human clinical intervention.
- `47:19` Federal policy should enforce total public transparency on all healthcare agreements funded by taxpayer dollars and require insurers to credit cash-pay purchases toward deductibles.
- `50:00` Traditional health insurance acts as a perpetual debt that never gets paid off; replacing premiums with personal savings accounts backed by stop-loss insurance creates lasting wealth and price discipline.
- `52:19` Frontier AI organizations face consumer adoption barriers because hyper-personalized social algorithms isolate users from conventional marketing and public relations.
## Detailed walkthrough
### `00:00` Breaking Up the Opaque Healthcare Morass
Erik Torenberg and Julie Yoo open the conversation by diagnosing the fundamental dysfunction in American healthcare: the market lacks real competitive dynamics, prices remain thoroughly opaque, and vertically integrated giants dominate the landscape through intricate webs of ownership. Mark Cuban highlights the sheer scale of this obfuscation, noting that an incumbent like UnitedHealth operates more than 3,000 subsidiaries that move $150 billion in intercompany transfers each year, allowing payors to steer business into entities they secretly own without patients or employers realizing it. When employers look for ways to cut through the confusion, Cuban offers an aggressively direct starting point: run every single benefits contract through an AI model and prompt it to point out exactly where the organization is getting ripped off.
Julie Yoo observes that Cuban's willingness to enter such an intimidating space has already altered incumbent behavior simply through the existence of Cost Plus Drugs. Decades of policy reform struggled to create competitive pressure, but having a high-profile, transparent alternative has forced payers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) to react. Cuban notes that while he rarely speaks to legacy executives directly, their corporate customers are independently weaponizing his public API. Savvy enterprises scrape Cost Plus Drugs' pricing data on a daily basis and place it in front of their PBMs, demanding they match or beat those numbers. In fact, some employers have even been told by one of the "Big Three" PBMs that Cost Plus Drugs is supposedly part of their network to placate them—even though Cuban’s company has zero formal agreements with any of the Big Three.
> “Take every single contract you sign, run it through AI, and ask where you're getting screwed.” — Mark Cuban
- **Intercompany transfers:** UnitedHealth operates 3,000+ subsidiaries with an estimated $150 billion in internal transfers annually, obscuring true costs.
- **API adoption:** Self-insured companies pull Cost Plus Drugs’ publicly accessible API every day to benchmark and force down their PBM quotes.
- **PBM misdirection:** Large PBM incumbents have falsely claimed to employers that Cost Plus Drugs is an in-network partner to explain away lower price availability.
---
`05:00` The Expanding Cost Plus Ecosystem: Mail Order, Retail Cards, and Modular Pods
Cost Plus Drugs has grown from 111 generic medications at its 2022 launch to roughly 4,000 SKUs, expanding its reach across four distinct operational pillars. The foundation remains the direct-to-consumer mail-order business, which continues to grow week over week as manufacturing partners expand their portfolios. To solve the immediate problem of acute needs where patients cannot wait for shipping, the company introduced the Team Cuban Card (`teamcubancard.com`). The card functions as a discount mechanism across 17,000 affiliated independent pharmacies. Cuban deliberately structured the program with a flat $12 fill fee paid directly to the local pharmacy to keep independent storefronts viable. While that fee can make low-cost $5 generic statins slightly more expensive than traditional alternatives, it yields massive savings on complex specialty generics, biosimilars, and cold-chain items like insulin, which are cheaper to pick up locally than to ship on dry ice.
Beyond retail fulfillment, Cuban traces the company's roots back to a cold email from co-founder Dr. Alex Oshmyansky, who wanted to address drug shortages on the FDA short supply list by modernizing generic manufacturing. At their flagship facility in Dallas, they compressed manufacturing processes that traditionally occupy entire football fields down to just 5,000 square feet. Using advanced robotics, the line can produce a six-month supply of an injectable generic, completely turn the equipment around within four hours, and immediately begin manufacturing the next drug. Extending that technology even further, the team packaged the robotic automation into transportable units the size of tractor-trailers, dubbed "pods." Designed to deploy to disaster areas or military operations, pods can be daisy-chained to run sterile injectables and solid-dose tablets simultaneously. The federal government purchased the initial units, and the platform has expanded to research hospitals, providing custom $20 million pod installations capable of rapid iterations on N-of-1 personalized therapies and antisense oligonucleotide (ASO) drugs.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Cost Plus Drugs Business Architecture
accDescr: Diagram illustrating the four interconnected operational divisions of Cost Plus Drugs.
subgraph ManufacturingTech["Manufacturing & Logistics"]
C["Dallas Robotic Facility<br/>(5,000 sq ft, 4-hr line turnover)"]
D["Deployable Pods<br/>(Trailer-sized modular labs)"]
end
subgraph InstitutionalSales["Institutional & Direct Contracts"]
E["Cost Plus Marketplace<br/>(Cost + 10% to 12% for hospitals)"]
F["Direct Hospital Contracts<br/>(No prior auth, public terms)"]
end
Building on their production capabilities, the company launched the Cost Plus Marketplace, which sells generic injectables and supplies directly to clinics and health systems at transparent markups of cost-plus-10% or cost-plus-12%. Despite saving hospitals millions annually, Cuban observes that organizational inertia persists: while hospital CEOs immediately grasp the cost savings, entrenched purchasing departments frequently resist abandoning legacy vendor contracts. Concurrently, Cuban is pursuing direct contracts with hospitals from his perspective as a self-insured employer. Under this framework, he eliminates traditional friction by trusting the doctor's judgment without requiring prior authorizations, guaranteeing prompt payment on contracted rates, and absorbing patient credit risk so hospitals do not have to act as subprime debt collectors. In exchange, he requires just two conditions: deeply discounted rates reflecting the elimination of administrative overhead, and the absolute contractual right to publish the entire agreement openly for the public to see.
> “And in exchange for all that, I want two things. I want a better price because your associated administration and overhead and doctor time is much less. Your yield is going to be higher. And I want the ability to take the contract we signed, this direct contract between us and publicize it.” — Mark Cuban
- **Independent pharmacy fee:** Cost Plus pays local pharmacies a flat $12 dispensing fee to sustain community operators, intentionally prioritizing fair compensation over rock-bottom prices on cheap generics.
- **Manufacturing efficiency:** The 5,000-square-foot Dallas plant turns robotic lines around in four hours to produce critical FDA shortage drugs.
- **Modular pod capabilities:** Deployable shipping-container-sized pods handle both mass-casualty emergency manufacturing and personalized N-of-1 therapies (costing around $20 million per installation).
- **Direct contracting trade-off:** Cuban eliminates pre-authorizations and covers all patient out-of-pocket bad debt in return for lower institutional prices and 100% public transparency on the contract.
`10:00` Open-Sourcing Contracts and the Entrenched Power of the BUCAs
Mark Cuban explains that he aims to publish contracts on costpluswellness.com to serve as an open-source clearinghouse for benefit designs and vendor agreements. The objective is to establish an accessible repository that any employer can adopt, any provider can join, or any company can reference as negotiation templates. Julie Yoo connects this directly to an ongoing conversation with Mark about "the great replacement cycle of health plans." She notes that employer-sponsored insurance covers roughly 155 million Americans—over 60% of the entire country—representing the largest block of coverage in the United States. Historically, this space was an impenetrable market for venture-backed startups due to the massive capital requirements to build national provider networks, as well as the deep moats of the legacy national carriers known as the BUCAs (Blue Cross Blue Shield, UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, and Aetna).
Startups and mid-sized employers are now feeling unprecedented pain from legacy carriers, with Yoo observing premium spikes as severe as 60% year-over-year. Cuban interjects to stress that the real situation is far bleaker because the major carriers are massively vertically integrated conglomerates:
> “So UnitedHealth. 3,000 plus subsidiaries, $150 billion in intercompany transfers annually. That would make them number 14 in GDP in the United States among states. And so that tells you how big they are.”
Cuban emphasizes that CVS and Cigna operate similarly massive footprints. These conglomerates continuously escalate premiums, hike deductibles, and inflate out-of-pocket maximums, steering volume through downstream entities they secretly own. Roughly 60% of commercially insured individuals are under self-insured employer arrangements, where companies bear the financial risk and hire third-party administrators (TPAs) or BUCA-run Administrative Services Only (ASO) platforms to process medical claims. Cuban notes that while pharmacy benefits command immense attention, the medical side represents about 90% of overall spend versus roughly 10% for pharmacy—making medical claims a vastly larger source of financial abuse.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: The Opacity in Self-Funded Medical Claims Flow
accDescr: Diagram showing how BUCAs and ASOs sit between employers and hospitals, obscuring prices and preventing claims reconciliation.
subgraph Employers["Self-Insured Employers"]
E["Employer Fund\n(Pays Medical Claims)"]
end
subgraph Providers["Care Delivery"]
H["Hospitals & Health Systems\n(Bound by BUCA Network Contracts)"]
end
E -->|"Pays inflated invoice amounts"| ASO
ASO -->|"Conceals 835/837 transaction data"| E
ASO <-->|"Intercompany capital transfers ($150B+)"| Subs
ASO -->|"Reimburses discounted negotiated rate"| H
H -.->|"Hospital 'hates' contract terms\nTIC files often inaccurate"| ASO
```
`12:44` Spread Pricing, Data Blocking, and Contractual Terrorism
Cuban details how ASOs exploit self-funded employers by concealing actual transaction values. Hospitals—unless they hold localized monopolies—generally despise BUCA agreements, but self-insured employers have virtually no visibility into the negotiated hospital terms. Even when employers attempt to examine Transparency in Coverage (TIC) machine-readable files, the posted figures are frequently riddled with errors. In practice, the amount billed to the employer rarely matches the reimbursement collected by the hospital:
> “So there's a spread pricing there. those ASOs that are owned by the BUCAs make it impossible to reconcile the numbers so that you can see if you're paying more or less.”
Legacy administrators explicitly block employers from accessing raw HIPAA transaction records:
- **837 files**: The standard electronic data interchange (EDI) format containing healthcare claims and diagnostic billing sent to payers.
- **835 files**: The electronic remittance advice documenting actual payment distributions, adjustments, and adjudications sent back to providers.
By withholding these files, carriers deny plan sponsors the ability to audit claims data or verify if payments correspond to true underlying costs. Cuban views stripping out these entrenched intermediaries as the "holy grail" of healthcare reform.
While Yoo points out that a new crop of venture-backed startups is deploying AI to build lean, full-stack health plans without legacy administrative bloat, Cuban cautions that software alone cannot fix a fundamentally distorted financial model. Because true price discovery is nonexistent, market mechanics cannot function properly. Furthermore, legacy carriers intentionally engineer contractual terms to render clients defenseless:
> “The contracts are so big. And so long, the BUCAs through their ASOs get to be contractual terrorists. And what I mean by contractual terrorism, the city of Dallas on their PBM contract, I haven't been able to see their ASO contract yet, 1,335 pages. There's no group of humans with enough coffee on the planet to be able to catch everything they try to squeeze by.”
Once an employer signs a multi-thousand-page agreement filled with predatory legal landmines, no downstream operational AI can undo the damage. Startups such as Sidecar Health are attempting to create alternative coverage models, but Cuban notes that when challengers attempt to route around BUCAs, the carriers leverage their sprawling corporate webs to retaliate in unexpected ways. This structural entrenchment is why Cuban advocates aggressively for federal legislative intervention, specifically backing a "breakup big medicine" antitrust stance to dismantle horizontal and vertical healthcare monopolies.
`16:35` The Short-Term "Bot Wars" vs. Contract Audit Prompts
Yoo brings up the escalating "bot wars" taking place between insurance payers and health systems, where automated AI agents on both sides fight over prior authorizations, denial management, and coding. She argues that these skirmishes expose how broken human-designed fee-for-service billing really is. Cuban dismisses operational AI bot wars as short-term distractions that do not alter macro market dynamics:
> “Your AI, my AI, your open AI, my anthropic, whatever it is, we're going to battle each other out and you might win a couple of innings, I'll win a couple of innings, but they're going to net out at some level. So I don't see dramatic change in the long term.”
Cuban believes legacy BUCAs face a massive long-term handicap when it comes to adopting frontier technologies. Because they grew through decades of unchecked mergers, their proprietary information remains fractured across thousands of isolated subsidiary databases. This technical debt will make it extremely difficult for them to become AI-native organizations.
To Cuban, the single highest-ROI application of AI in healthcare right now occurs before an employer signs on the dotted line. He challenges every founder, board member, and portfolio company to run their vendor contracts through an LLM to immediately surface exploitative terms:
> “If every one of your portfolio companies... Said, you know what? I'm going to run my existing benefits contract. If I have a broker, if I have a consultant, if I have TPA, if I have a PBM contract, I'm running my existing contract through AI and I'm asking, I'm using a prompt that asks a single question. Where are they fucking me over and what should I do about it? And within 30 seconds, you're going to see bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam.”
Cuban adds that he personally tests every major frontier model to analyze deals and run prompts. Poking fun at his own obsession with AI agents alongside Erik Torenberg, Cuban jokes that because he is a die-hard NBA fan, he happily subscribed to the Grok plan because its price point reminded him of Dallas Mavericks star Luka Dončić's jersey number: "I got the Luka Dončić plan because it's $77.69 or something. I'm like, this is brilliant. GrokBot, $77, the Luka plan." Cuban runs multiple parallel enterprise subscriptions—spanning Grok, Google Gemini, and OpenAI—to stress-test agreements and uncover buried fees.
`20:00` AI Agents, Open Records, and Exposing PBM/BUCA Contracts
Mark Cuban explains how he aggressively deploys AI agents to perform investigative work that previously sat neglected at the bottom of his to-do list. He tasks agents with scraping every state entity, organization, and public enterprise that has open-records obligations to hunt down public contracts and RFPs. The agent drafts a tailored open-records request, places it into Cuban's email drafts, and alerts him so he can add a personalized touch and hit send. Cuban loads the incoming contracts onto a shared Google Drive accessible by multiple large language models, prompting them to surface the good news, the bad news, actionable steps, and an executive summary he can forward directly to the entity. This automated pipeline gives him an unvarnished look at how the "big three" pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) and the major national health insurers—the BUCAs (Blue Cross Blue Shield, UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, Aetna) on the administrative services only (ASO) side—structure agreements that drain public coffers.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: AI Agent Pipeline for Reviewing Public Healthcare Contracts
accDescr: Diagram illustrating Mark Cuban's workflow from agent search to contract analysis using LLMs.
subgraph Sourcing["1. Automated Sourcing"]
A["AI Agents Scan Public Entities"] -->|"Find RFPs & open records"| B["Draft Public Records Letters"]
B -->|"Stage in email drafts"| C["Mark Personalizes & Sends"]
end
subgraph Analysis["2. Drive Ingestion & Multi-LLM Review"]
C -->|"Uploaded documents"| D["Google Drive Repository"]
D -->|"Batch review"| E["Multiple LLMs Analyze Contracts"]
end
subgraph Output["3. Actionable Briefs"]
E --> F["Extract Good & Bad News"]
E --> G["Identify Markup & Rip-Off Traps"]
F & G --> H["Send Plain-English Breakdown to Entity"]
end
```
Looking at these files, Cuban is astonished by how severely school districts, unions, and cities like Denver, Dallas, and Fort Worth are being overcharged. He argues that self-insured employers covering the majority of the commercially insured population hold the power to completely upend the market if they simply audit their agreements with automated tooling. “If that 67% of the employers, representing 67%, the 160 million plus Americans actually did one thing—one thing, ran their contracts together through AI before they signed them and negotiated from that, the entire system for the big BUCAs and big PBMs and all their subsidiaries would collapse.” Rather than waiting for government intervention, Cuban urges boards and venture-backed founders to take immediate operational responsibility: “And so when I go and I talk to employers, when I go talk to investors and talk about their portfolio companies, and they're like, do we need legislation? Do we need this, that? I'm like, no, you need to be smart and do your job and bring in somebody that I call job is to manage the contracts and everything associated with it.”
- When public companies run their contracts through AI at Cuban's urging, executives routinely discover millions in hidden waste and admit they had no idea how badly they were being exploited.
- Despite their shock, these public company executives refuse to discuss the savings on quarterly earnings calls because they are terrified of alienating the major insurers and PBMs with whom they must continue doing business.
- For any tech company or startup with more than 1,500 employees or covered members, Cuban asserts that running health benefit contracts through AI is the fastest way to save millions of dollars almost overnight.
---
`22:45` The Grand Vision for Cost Plus Drugs: Trust and $20M Manufacturing Pods
Asked by Julie Yoo about the long-term roadmap and sequencing for Cost Plus Drugs, Cuban emphasizes that the ultimate goal is lowering healthcare costs so care can become universally accessible. While he personally supports universal healthcare, he argues it remains fundamentally unworkable until prices are fully transparent and decisions can be grounded in clean, verifiable data. On the consumer side, Cuban does not worry about copycat competitors offering a "cost plus 1%" discount, because Cost Plus Drugs has built a defensible brand anchored entirely in transparency. Operating with zero marketing or advertising spend, the company relies entirely on word of mouth from customers who save money. “And that's the one thing missing in all of healthcare economics, trust.” With a strict, unchanging 15% markup over actual production costs, the company has positioned reliability and radical honesty as its core moat.
Beyond digital pharmacy distribution, the capital-intensive engine of Cuban's strategy lies in high-tech robotic manufacturing pods. These self-contained sterile units cost roughly $20 million each and yield strong gross margins. Cuban expects to sell a couple hundred units annually within two years and ramp up to several thousand annually within five years, joking: “If we selling billion worth of pods a year watch out Elon.” By daisy-chaining these pods together at their Dallas, Texas facility, Cost Plus Drugs can manufacture tableted generic medications domestically for lower prices than what they currently pay overseas suppliers in India. Cuban notes that while they deliberately avoid bottom-of-the-barrel pricing in India to work strictly with top-tier, quality-certified manufacturers, automated domestic production remains cheaper on a unit basis.
The primary bottleneck preventing immediate large-scale onshoring is regulatory overhead. Every generic formulation requires an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) with the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), carrying a statutory filing fee of $365,000 plus associated legal and laboratory costs. Producing 1,000 generic medications would therefore require $365 million in FDA fees alone, completely separate from the hardware investments in manufacturing pods. Although Cuban plans to prominently feature a small American flag icon on the Cost Plus Drugs website next to domestically produced medicines, navigating these regulatory hurdles means widespread U.S.-made generic distribution remains roughly two years away.
---
`25:50` Regulatory Capture, Scale Capture, and Wall Street Earnings Calls
Addressing whether technology alone can disrupt healthcare without deep structural changes, Cuban makes a clear distinction between regulatory capture and what he terms "scale capture." In the current market, massive conglomerates leverage sheer scale and vertical integration across insurance, PBMs, and pharmacies to extract margins while insulating themselves from competitive pressures. When monitoring quarterly earnings conference calls across legacy healthcare giants, Cuban notices a glaring, recurring omission: executives repeatedly tout heavy investments in artificial intelligence and modern technology, yet they never promise that these efficiencies will lower premiums or out-of-pocket prescription expenses for employers and patients. Instead, these technological gains are framed strictly as mechanisms to expand corporate margins, increase earnings per share, and fund massive share buyback programs.
Because legacy incumbents design labyrinthine agreements specifically engineered to trap and confuse plan sponsors, Cuban strictly avoids direct partnerships with them. “Because we have to work outside of them, because otherwise you fall into their trap and they game you with their contracts.” Until employers educate themselves and stop blindly accepting opaque standard-form agreements, incumbents will continue using their market dominance to dictate terms and stifle transparent market alternatives.
---
`27:30` AI, Entry-Level Talent, and Educating the C-Suite
When the discussion shifts to the broader healthcare workforce and preparing early-career professionals, Cuban pushes back against the premise that generative AI should lead companies to eliminate junior staff. He argues that foundational entry-level roles remain indispensable because every artificial intelligence model suffers from inherent latency. “You have to still hire entry-level people because no matter what the model is, the minute it's released, that's it, right? It's behind.” Because an LLM is static upon deployment and completely unaware of real-time developments—such as a conversation currently taking place in a room—organizations need human beings who maintain real-time context, act as critical humans-in-the-loop, evaluate edge cases, and understand the downstream operational consequences of model outputs. Furthermore, eliminating entry-level talent starves an enterprise of institutional memory, depriving companies of senior leaders who understand how internal systems evolved over time.
Cuban frames the labor transition not as machine-versus-human replacement, but as an efficiency imperative driven by tool adoption: “Because AI doesn't replace jobs. People who know how to use AI replace the jobs of people who don't know how to use AI.” To build a resilient organization, leadership must simultaneously upskill the broader white-collar staff and demystify the technology for the executive team. Cuban spends significant time educating C-suite executives on how agents operate, the architectural differences between open-source and closed proprietary models, and the cognitive boundaries of current LLMs:
- Large language models deal primarily with text and static imagery; they lack native multimodal comprehension of real-world dynamic physical workflows and video streams.
- AI models possess encyclopedic knowledge but lack practical intuition: “AI is not smart. It's book smart, maybe, but it's not street smart. It's not entrepreneur smart.”
- Once executive leadership stops treating AI as magic and understands its mechanistic limitations and latency constraints, they can experiment hands-on to uncover practical product improvements for customers rather than chasing speculative hype.
`30:00` Generative AI in Business, Agent Swarms, and Commercial Feeds
Mark Cuban recounts a conversation from months earlier with an executive from a food company who was exploring acquisitions driven by market pressures around GLP-1 weight-loss medications. To illustrate how fast modern tools move, Cuban proposed testing the executive's flagship product: a cookie. Cuban opened ChatGPT and prompted it to design a direct competitor that was more GLP-1 friendly and priced lower, demanding a full bill of materials, sourcing options, manufacturing requirements, and next steps. In roughly three minutes, the model generated a comprehensive plan, leaving the executive stunned: “And in about three minutes, we got back to it. And he was like, oh, shit. no idea.” Cuban emphasizes that if an executive does not even realize an LLM can do that, the larger organizational struggle is figuring out how to enable a company to leverage artificial intelligence effectively.
For builders and entrepreneurs, Cuban believes this represents an unprecedented era of opportunity, predicting that an individual will eventually become a “trillionaire in the basement” simply by launching an autonomous agent swarm. However, significant friction remains for personal software agents. Agents cannot natively scroll social media posts, watch or evaluate video advertisements, or easily access clean transcripts across massive feeds. As commerce shifts toward an agent-driven paradigm, the infrastructure used to feed commercial information into those agents must evolve:
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Agent Information Pipeline
accDescr: Pipeline showing how raw social feeds and ads are transcribed and ingested into AI agent systems.
subgraph Ingestion["Data Ingestion"]
A["Social Media Posts & Ads"] --> B["agentfeeds.devs Transcripts"]
end
subgraph AgentExecution["Personal AI Agents"]
B --> C["Personal Agent Models\n(Muse, Dot, Claude)"]
C --> D["Autonomous Product Discovery\n& Market Comparison"]
end
```
To experiment with bridging this gap, Cuban and an engineer built a prototype project called `agentfeeds.devs`. The tool takes post transcripts and ad information, allowing users to copy and paste feed streams directly into their autonomous agents to keep them up to speed on specific product categories. While acknowledging that the ecosystem must still overcome unresolved questions around AI accuracy, hallucination, and consumer trust, Cuban anticipates an explosion of specialized developer tools focused on agent commerce enablement.
- Roughly 40% of Americans cannot afford an unexpected $400 emergency expense, creating pervasive financial dread around healthcare events.
- Autonomous agent swarms will allow single-person or tiny software teams to achieve massive enterprise-scale leverage.
- The pipeline connecting brand advertising and social media context to personal software agents remains one of the largest unsolved infrastructure gaps.
---
`32:48` Consumer Empowerment: Decoding Bills and Tapping Nonprofit Hospital Programs
Beyond clinical diagnostics, Cuban argues that the greatest near-term value of AI in healthcare lies on the economic side, putting negotiating power directly into the hands of consumers, patients, and their families. Today, patients are paralyzed by convoluted explanation of benefits (EOB) statements and opaque hospital invoices. Cuban advises anyone facing healthcare uncertainty to prompt an LLM to look up all local nonprofit hospitals and retrieve their statutory financial support frameworks before an emergency even strikes.
Nonprofit hospital organizations are federally required to operate financial assistance policies (charity care). Cuban points out that qualification thresholds are often benchmarked against the federal poverty level, with some hospital programs extending assistance to households earning up to 600% of the poverty line—which can exceed $100,000 for families depending on the state. For individuals struggling to budget for expensive monthly commercial health insurance premiums, Cuban observes that an informed consumer could theoretically choose to put what they would have spent on insurance premiums into an interest-bearing money market account instead, relying on clear knowledge of their local hospital's charity eligibility if a crisis hits:
> “Patients slash consumers slash families understanding what their options are and how to procure those options from particularly nonprofit hospitals is going to be enormous.” — Mark Cuban
Cuban outlines an idea for a business that visits nonprofit hospitals to build agent-ready prompts and automated workflows. These would allow patients to copy and paste their financial information into AI agents (such as Muse, Dot, or Claude CoWork) to match against charity tiers automatically. He criticizes hospital leadership directly for failing to reach their communities, saying: “And so when I talk to the heads of hospitals, I'm like, you don't understand. You guys suck at marketing. You are dependent on the BUCAs and their plans and being part of their network to feed you patients. That's ridiculous.” Cuban argues that relying entirely on the legacy BUCKAs (Blue Cross Blue Shield, UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, Aetna) strips hospitals of leverage, whereas promoting their own financial relief programs and partnering with local banks or stop-loss providers for small-to-medium businesses would lower consumer fear.
| Healthcare Channel | Legacy Mechanism | AI-Enabled Patient Mechanism |
|:--- |:--- |:--- |
| **Provider Selection** | Driven strictly by BUCA payer networks | Direct negotiation and navigation to local nonprofit systems |
| **Financial Assistance** | Hidden behind obscure paperwork and collections | Prompt-driven indexing benchmarked up to 600% of poverty level |
| **Coverage Mechanics** | Costly fixed monthly plan premiums | Tailored setups blending savings accounts, stop-loss, and charity care |
Cuban compares current skepticism about artificial intelligence to early resistance against personal computing tools, recalling how users once balked at paying $500 for Lotus 1-2-3 because they thought spreadsheets were impossible to learn. He stresses that the only way to alleviate the public's fear of AI is by proving that the technology directly insulates them from severe financial and administrative vulnerability.
---
`36:08` Frontier Models and N-of-1 Drug Personalization
Turning the conversation to how frontier AI companies (such as OpenAI and Anthropic) will reshape the medical landscape, Erik Torenberg brings up Aaron Swartz’s famous principle that “information wants to be free” and notes that healthcare data has historically remained fiercely siloed for strategic competitive advantages. Cuban agrees that proprietary silos exist, but contends that advances in algorithmic architectures will fundamentally overhaul life sciences, driving the marginal cost of personalized drug formulation toward zero:
> “The cost of designing a drug personalized to you after reviewing your DNA and knowing everything that it knows will start approaching zero as the capabilities of models go up, right?” — Mark Cuban
Cuban argues that while hardware infrastructure—such as graphics processing units, network architectures, and raw energy inputs—dominates current tech discussions, long-term disruption will be led by sheer algorithmic efficiency. Over the next five to twenty years, foundational models will move away from blunt population-level remedies toward bespoke biological interventions. Cuban emphasizes that today's pharmaceuticals rely on massive trial-and-error approximations, noting that over-the-counter mainstays like ibuprofen, Advil, and Tylenol are taken as generic one-size-fits-all treatments even though individual human physiology varies unpredictably. Similarly, forcing patients to choose between standard prescription blood thinners like Eliquis, Xarelto, or Warfarin fails to address individual genetic nuance.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: DNA to Automated Pod Manufacturing Flow
accDescr: Sequence diagram illustrating how patient DNA and frontier AI models interact to create customized drugs manufactured on-demand.
subgraph DiagnosticInput["Genomic & Health Inputs"]
A["Low-Cost Genomic Sequencing\n($99 DNA Profile)"] --> B["Frontier AI Models\n(OpenAI, Anthropic)"]
end
subgraph Formulation["Personalized Design Engine"]
B --> C["N-of-1 Algorithmic Formulation\n(Zero Marginal Cost Design)"]
C --> D["Bundled AI Model Subscriptions\n($20 to $200 per month)"]
end
subgraph Production["Distributed Manufacturing"]
D --> E["Cost Plus Drugs\nRobotic Manufacturing Pods"]
E --> F["Point-of-Need Custom Pill / Therapy"]
end
```
Cuban reveals that he has directly pitched two leading frontier AI labs to package personalized medicine engines straight into their standard consumer pricing tiers ($20 to $200 per month subscriptions). As genetic sequencing drops under $99 (via platforms like 23andMe) and model inference costs steadily crater, the subscription will easily subsidize customized preventive health tracking and compound design. Finally, Cuban connects this shift to Cost Plus Drugs' manufacturing infrastructure, noting that having the algorithmic blueprint for an N-of-1 personalized drug is meaningless without the localized robotic capacity to synthesize it physically: “And selling my book, we want our pods to be right there to be able to manufacture them because we're the only ones capable of doing it. And I don't see that changing for a long time.”
`40:00` Why AI and Personalized Medicine Will Never Replace Doctors
As drugs evolve into hyper-personalized therapies tailored to individual biology, care delivery faces massive disruption. A significant portion of modern medicine is spent on trial-and-error: doctors calibrating dosages, managing titration, and adjusting patient behavior when standard treatments fail. While automation and foundation models will streamline diagnostics, Mark Cuban argues that human clinicians will remain irreplaceable due to real-world latency and human sensory nuance. If a patient takes a cutting-edge personalized drug and has an acute adverse reaction, a robot or video interface cannot match an experienced physician observing physical cues, picking up on room dynamics, and comforting an emotional family member. Clinical practice requires knowing which variables matter, which questions to ask, and how to navigate time costs that persist even when computational processing costs drop to zero.
Instead of eliminating doctors, advancements in artificial intelligence will radically reshape medical school education. Rather than memorizing static protocols, future physicians will be trained to interface with clinical intelligence platforms like OpenEvidence, interpret genomic models, and translate complex probabilistic outputs into actionable advice for patients. Cuban points out that achieving truly personalized medicine requires an ecosystem where billions of individual models exist, creating severe intellectual property bottlenecks. Historically, medical academia operated under a "publish or perish" ethos where discoveries were shared or licensed. In the AI era, IP holders will guard proprietary weights, fine-tuning data, and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines behind steep paywalls, charging thousands of dollars per inference rather than releasing knowledge openly.
Mark Cuban highlights this clash between the open-source philosophy and proprietary incentives: “The information may want to be free, but the person who owns the IP feels differently.”
- **The limits of robotic care**: Cuban jokes about dystopian alternatives to bedside manner: “The Terminator might walk in and say, your time is up. I don't know. But I'd rather have a human there with all five senses being able to take a look and ask questions and see the crying mom or the crying son or child.”
- **Medical school curriculum shifts**: Future physician training will focus on extracting genomic insights, querying clinical models, and translating probabilistic AI conclusions into patient-level bedside care.
- **The intellectual property logjam**: As patent filings are easily modified or circumvented by AI tools, proprietary clinical models will be gated behind proprietary interfaces, creating friction for post-training, fine-tuning, and inference access.
`42:47` The Physician as Scientist and the Rise of AI Translators
Julie Yoo frames the future of clinical practice through the lens of expanded demand. Contrary to fears of medical unemployment, she expects society will actually need more doctors: as automated clinical guidance becomes ubiquitous and cheap, consumer demand for actual downstream medical services will surge. Furthermore, AI frees clinicians from the rote checklist tasks and administrative quality measures that currently dominate medical practice. Rather than functioning as human forms processors, physicians can transition into "physician-scientists" who operate at the frontier of medicine, gathering novel individual data and observing how real human biology responds to therapies before population-scale data catches up.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: The Novel Data and AI Translation Loop
accDescr: Diagram illustrating how real-time patient data is converted by human translators into clinical AI inputs and physician scientist actions.
subgraph DataCollection["Data Collection"]
P["Individual Patient"] -->|"Continuous Monitoring"| W["Real-Time Wearables\n(e.g., Blood Pressure, Vitals)"]
W -->|"Generates"| ND["Novel Personal Data"]
end
subgraph TranslationLayer["Human Translation Layer"]
ND --> T["AI Translators"]
P -.->|"Bedside Context"| T
T -->|"Contextualized Prompts"| M["Personalized AI Models"]
end
subgraph ClinicalAction["Clinical Care"]
M -->|"Synthesized Guidance"| PS["Physician-Scientists"]
PS -->|"Targeted Interventions"| P
end
```
The proliferation of real-time health data—such as continuous blood pressure tracking rather than arbitrary annual checkups—will demand human intermediaries. Cuban displays his own wearable tech on his wrist, pointing out that raw streams of novel biometric data are meaningless without context. He predicts the emergence of a new career path: "AI translators" who help ordinary patients bridge the gap between their unique life circumstances and algorithmic outputs. Extracting emotional, psychological, and situational truths from a patient requires human trust and empathy, something automated humanoid interfaces will struggle to duplicate.
Julie Yoo explains this evolution in the clinical role: “And what you're describing is like, what if like the paradigm moves towards physicians are actually like more physician scientists, right?”
- **The Jevons paradox of healthcare**: Abundant, accessible digital health advice will stimulate higher consumer demand for in-person, high-touch physician interventions.
- **Rote work versus scientific discovery**: Current practice burdens doctors with repetitive, low-cognitive-load administrative mandates; the emerging paradigm elevates doctors into real-time investigators at the "tip of the spear."
- **Continuous versus episodic metrics**: Julie and Mark contrast the outdated practice of checking blood pressure once a year with continuous wearable monitoring that captures daily fluctuations driven by diet, exercise, and drug responses.
- **The role of AI translators**: Humans will be required to contextualize subjective patient realities into valid prompts for AI systems and translate technical algorithmic outputs into lifestyle actions for everyday people.
`45:38` Tackling EHR Incumbents and the Future of Healthcare GDP
When Julie Yoo asks how electronic health record (EHR) incumbents like Epic will evolve or face disruption in the age of generative AI, Mark Cuban acknowledges their entrenched stronghold over the hospital ecosystem. Rather than trying to rebuild or replace the underlying EHR infrastructure, Cost Plus Drugs works pragmatically within it. Cuban highlights their recent partnership with Epic—which also includes distribution players like Amazon Pharmacy—to embed direct, transparent drug pricing inside the doctor's prescribing workflow at the point of care. While Cuban champions the initiative, he expresses vocal frustration with traditional healthcare software release cycles, venting about why an announced integration must wait until the following May to actually go live.
Turning to macroeconomics, Erik Torenberg asks whether healthcare will inevitably consume one-fifth or one-sixth of US GDP indefinitely as demand scales with an aging population. Cuban affirms that healthcare spending will likely maintain its significant share of GDP, but argues that the nature of that spend will undergo a fundamental economic transformation. Moving capital away from reactive "sick care" and toward preventative, longitudinal optimization produces healthier citizens who experience less downtime, greater cognitive retention, and vastly superior economic productivity across their lifespans.
Mark Cuban explains the productivity offset of proactive care: “Well, the value you get out of the people will increase because they'll be healthier.”
- **Working inside the Epic ecosystem**: Cost Plus Drugs chose to integrate directly into Epic's electronic prescribing workflows rather than battle the dominant EHR incumbent, offering real-time pricing alternatives directly to doctors.
- **Healthcare's sluggish development cycles**: Cuban laments the sluggish execution typical of legacy health IT, questioning why major EHR enhancements take nearly a year from announcement to deployment.
- **Sick care versus productive care**: Keeping healthcare spend around 18% to 20% of GDP is sustainable if the output converts chronic illness into productive, high-performing human capital.
`47:19` Mark Cuban’s Healthcare Policy Agenda: Transparency and Taxpayer Leverage
Erik Torenberg notes that a prominent mutual pollster has argued that Cuban could mount a viable and winning campaign for public office, prompting him to ask what federal healthcare policies Cuban would prioritize. Cuban states that his policy playbook is straightforward, mirroring the testimonies he delivers before state legislatures: harness absolute market transparency and enforce common-sense financial rules on entities funded by public tax dollars.
Cuban’s foundational policy pillar is mandating that every single healthcare contract involving taxpayer money must be made fully public with zero redactions. Opaque, confidential contracts allow pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) and major commercial carriers to obscure margins and cross-subsidize arbitrary prices. Additionally, Cuban advocates for expanding the "cash-to-deductible" rule across all fifty states. Under this policy—already adopted by eight states—any insured patient who bypasses their health plan to buy a prescription or service at a cheaper cash price out-of-pocket is legally entitled to have that expense credited against their insurance deductible. Cuban points out that the largest commercial health insurance carriers are not genuine risk-bearing enterprises anymore; approximately 72% of their total revenue flows straight from public taxpayer funds through Medicare, Medicaid, and subsidized programs, turning their business model into pure regulatory and price arbitrage.
Mark Cuban summarizes the core mechanism needed to fix healthcare pricing: “One, make all contracts with anybody who takes taxpayer money public.”
- **Unredacted public contracts**: Eliminating redactions on any contract supported by taxpayer dollars forces immediate competitive price discovery across suppliers, health systems, and intermediaries.
- **The cash-to-deductible mandate**: Allowing patients who shop around and secure cheaper self-pay pricing to apply those costs directly toward their plan deductibles (currently active in 8 states) directly aligns consumer incentives with price transparency.
- **Insurers as government arbitrageurs**: 72% of large commercial insurers' revenues stem directly from government programs, meaning private carriers offload fundamental financial risk back onto taxpayers while capturing high-margin spread.
`50:00` Rethinking Healthcare: Replacing Insurance with Guaranteed Medical Savings
Mark Cuban details a radical thought experiment to dismantle the traditional health insurance system. He points out that insurance premiums represent the single perpetual debt Americans pay until the day they die—whether through private plans or Medicare—yet when people actually need care, they are forced to battle the system to get coverage. Instead, Cuban proposes a government-guaranteed banking model:
> “So knowing that, we also have to consider that the one debt we never pay off till the day we die is our insurance premiums.”
Under his alternative, individuals deposit what they would normally pay for an ACA Silver plan into a dedicated bank account they own. For example, a Texas family of five might deposit $2,100 per month, which accrues over time. If a medical incident exceeds their accrued balance, the bank issues a loan backstopped by a state or federal guarantee—similar to federal programs for student loans, SBA lending, or mortgages. The loan is paid back gradually through payroll deductions, while federal stop-loss insurance kicks in above a fixed catastrophe threshold (such as $40,000). If an individual stays healthy, the accrued capital remains their personal property when they transition to Medicare at age 65.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Mark Cuban's Alternative Healthcare Financing Flow
accDescr: Diagram illustrating Cuban's proposed replacement for health insurance via deposits, bank loans, and federal stop-loss.
subgraph Deposits["Monthly Contributions"]
A["Citizen deposits equivalent of ACA Silver premium"] --> B["Personal Bank Account (Citizen Owned)"]
end
subgraph MedicalEvent["Medical Event Occurs"]
B --> C{"Funds Cover Costs?"}
C -- "Yes" --> D["Pay Provider Directly"]
C -- "No" --> E["Bank Loan Backstopped by Government Guarantee"]
E --> F["Payroll Deduction to Pay Off Loan"]
E --> G["Federal Stop-Loss (Kicks in above threshold e.g. $40k)"]
end
subgraph Retirement["Age 65 Retirement"]
B --> H["Rolls into personal savings at Medicare age"]
end
```
- **Permanent financial liability:** Unless on Medicaid, citizens pay premiums non-stop across their entire lives while having to fight claim denials.
- **Hypothetical Texas baseline:** A family of five depositing roughly $2,100 per month under an ACA-pegged rate would accumulate full ownership of their capital.
- **Federal double standard:** The federal government happily guarantees mortgages, student loans, SBA commercial debt, and agricultural subsidies, but abandons individuals to catastrophic hospital bills.
- **Guardrails against misuse:** Spending rules would require verified provider care, preventing people from spending medical savings arbitrarily (e.g., paying a relative to fix a broken toe).
---
`52:19` Cracking Algorithmic Echo Chambers to Market AI
Turning to marketing, Erik Torenberg asks Cuban how frontier AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic should address their poor public perception and the mounting community backlash against data center buildouts. Cuban pulls no punches, saying he has spoken with these companies directly and told them they are failing to understand modern media consumption:
> “And if you really have the best AI, you should be able to not only reverse engineer those algorithms, but put together a marketing program because you sure tell everybody you can do marketing programs through, you know, your bots.”
Cuban illustrates this breakdown through an exchange with a 23-year-old colleague in Texas who noted that peers their age did not even recognize high-profile Texas political figures like Attorney General Ken Paxton or State Representative James Talarico. Social media feeds operate as closed feedback loops where algorithms supply only what users already seek. Consequently, traditional PR strategies—like releasing policy position papers or buying legacy sports broadcast ads—do not penetrate younger cohorts who live entirely inside personalized algorithmic feeds on platforms like TikTok.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: Frontier AI Public Perception Feedback Loop
accDescr: Contrast between ineffective legacy media strategies and algorithmic targeting requirements.
subgraph IneffectiveApproach["Current Strategy (Ineffective)"]
A1["Policy Position Papers"] --> B1["Legacy Media & Sports Ads"]
B1 --> C1["Ignored by Algorithmic Feeds"]
end
subgraph ModernReality["Algorithmic Reality"]
A2["Individualized TikTok / Social Feeds"] --> B2["Echo Chamber Silos"]
B2 --> C2["Widespread Public Misunderstanding & Backlash"]
end
```
- **Algorithmic isolation:** Users see hyper-personalized content; Cuban observes his own 17-year-old son's feed cycling exclusively between basketball, attractive girls, and cars, leaving traditional institutional messaging completely out of sight.
- **Data center backlash as a symptom:** Public opposition to power-hungry data centers serves as a proxy for broad public anxiety and a lack of fundamental comprehension regarding AI.
- **Municipal blunders:** Similar to employers signing one-sided pharmacy benefit manager contracts, local municipalities often succumb to "contractual terrorism" when negotiating bad agreements for local data centers.
- **Reverse-engineering reach:** Frontier labs must use their own models to analyze and penetrate social feed algorithms rather than waiting for legal shifts around Section 230 or teen social media bans like those pursued in Australia.
---
`56:56` The White Space of AI: Learning vs. Shirking
When asked what remaining market white spaces entrepreneurs should target, Cuban asserts that the opportunity encompasses every industry without exception. He frames the current revolution around two fundamental forks in how organizations and individuals adapt:
> “There’s going to be two types of companies, those who are great at AI and those who have gone out of business. And if you take the time to learn it, and then there’s two types of people and how they use AI. Those who use AI to learn anything and those who use AI so they don't have to learn anything.”
Cuban compares the lingering hesitation toward AI to early office workers double-checking digital spreadsheets against physical 10-key adding machines. He encourages entrepreneurs of all ages—from teenagers to founders in their 50s, 60s, or 70s—to overcome the awkwardness of interacting directly with models via voice and text. He describes his own workflow of pitting models against one another: analyzing complex contracts by feeding the outputs of Grok into ChatGPT and interrogating discrepancies for hours, or even holding two phones up to one another so models converse directly while he listens. He predicts that while Silicon Valley has an early cultural advantage, the broader world will soon invent novel categories that mirror the early, unexpected rise of social platforms like Friendster.
- **Foundational technology transition:** Cuban rates generative AI as the most significant technological disruption he has seen across his entire career, surpassing earlier computing and internet waves.
- **Cross-model validation:** Rather than accepting single outputs, founders should pit competing frontier engines against one another to audit corporate contracts and discover strategic vulnerabilities.
- **Embracing the bizarre:** The willingness to test unconventional and initially uncomfortable model workflows is precisely where groundbreaking business ideas will emerge.
## Notable quotes
> `00:00` Take every single contract you sign, run it through AI, and ask where you're getting screwed. — Mark Cuban
> `27:30` AI is not smart. It's book smart, maybe, but it's not street smart. It's not entrepreneur smart. — Mark Cuban
> `40:00` The information may want to be free, but the person who owns the IP feels differently. — Mark Cuban
## Mentioned
Mark Cuban, Erik Torenberg, Julie Yoo, Alex Oshmyansky, Luka Dončić, Aaron Swartz, Ken Paxton, James Talarico, UnitedHealth, CVS, Cigna, Aetna, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Cost Plus Drugs, Team Cuban Card, Cost Plus Marketplace, costpluswellness.com, Sidecar Health, Epic, Amazon Pharmacy, 23andMe, OpenEvidence, OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok, Google Gemini, ChatGPT, Claude CoWork, Muse, Dot, agentfeeds.devs, Food and Drug Administration (FDA), Lotus 1-2-3, Friendster, Eliquis, Xarelto, Warfarin, Advil, Tylenol
## Video description
Mark Cuban thinks AI could transform healthcare, but it won’t fix opaque prices and broken incentives on its own. His starting point for employers: run every benefits contract through AI and ask where you’re getting ripped off.
Mark joins a16z General Partner Julie Yoo and Erik Torenberg to discuss what he’s learned building Cost Plus Drugs, why trust is its core product, and how greater transparency could put pressure on healthcare costs.
They also explore where AI can help, what personalized medicine could look like, how the role of doctors may change, and why Mark believes founders should use AI to learn, not as an excuse to stop thinking.
库班敦促雇主利用AI审计医疗合同以打破PBM垄断
如果自保雇主在签署合同前利用人工智能审计供应商合同并剔除隐性差价定价,商业医疗保险模式即使无需立法也将会崩溃。
马克·库班(Mark Cuban)对根深蒂固的医疗中介机构发起了以透明度为导向的抨击,认为自保雇主若将长达1,000页的传统福利合同输入大语言模型,揭露差价定价和隐性管理费,即可立即节省数百万美元。他解释了Cost Plus Drugs背后的扩张战略——从面向医院的透明直销市场加价,到可部署的自动化机器人制造舱,同时认为支付方与提供方之间的AI“机器人大战”只是一种表面姿态。展望未来,库班预测前沿AI模型将使定制化个人(N-of-1)药物设计的边际成本归零,这将需要物理机器人基础设施来配制定制疗法。为了解决系统性筹资问题,他主张对涉及纳税人资金的医疗合同实行强制性公开透明,并提议用受联邦灾难性止损保障的计息、有担保个人医疗账户,来取代掠夺性的医疗保险费。
马克·库班敦促自保雇主使用多大语言模型(multi-LLM)流程审计每份医疗福利合同,认为自动化审计将瓦解传统药品福利管理机构(PBM)和承保商利用1,000多页合同牟利的差价定价策略。 (0:00)
Cost Plus Drugs正从透明的仿制药零售分销扩展到自动化本土制造舱,旨在部署造价2,000万美元、可在4小时内完成生产调优的集装箱式机器人单元。 (5:00)
库班提议拆解传统雇主保险,将商业保费转入由政府灾难性止损和担保贷款支持的计息医疗储蓄账户。 (50:00)
反垄断和透明度立法的首要任务应集中在强制公开披露所有涉及纳税人资金的合同,并在全国范围内制定现金支付与免赔额同等计入的规则。 (47:19)
Reading summary
Mark Cuban argues that American healthcare is distorted by vertically integrated incumbents using opaque contracts to extract profits, and that market forces can be restored through radical price transparency, AI-assisted contract audits, and modular domestic manufacturing.
Exposing Incumbent Opacity Through Audits and AI (0:00)
Cuban asserts that legacy carriers and pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs) operate as vertically integrated conglomerates that conceal real transaction costs. For example, he notes UnitedHealth runs over 3,000 subsidiaries moving $150 billion in intercompany transfers annually. In self-insured employer arrangements—covering roughly 60% of commercially insured Americans—third-party administrators and administrative services only (ASO) platforms block access to raw 835 remittance and 837 claim files, enabling spread pricing. Furthermore, Cuban highlights that contracts routinely span thousands of pages (such as the City of Dallas's 1,335-page PBM contract), creating legal traps employers cannot realistically catch manually.
Rather than engaging in administrative "bot wars" over claims denials, Cuban advises employers to feed benefit agreements into frontier AI models to flag exploitative terms before signing. He automates public-records requests to examine municipal contracts, revealing widespread overspending in school districts and city governments. While Julie Yoo notes some startups are building AI-driven health plans, Cuban cautions that software alone cannot fix the sector without structural price transparency and federal antitrust interventions to break up horizontal and vertical healthcare monopolies.
Cost Plus Drugs and Modular Manufacturing Infrastructure (5:00)
Cost Plus Drugs approaches pharmacy distribution by applying transparent markups: a fixed 15% margin on mail-order generics, cost-plus-10% to 12% for hospital systems, and a flat $12 dispensing fee across 17,000 independent retail pharmacies via the Team Cuban Card. To tackle drug shortages and domestic production costs, the company compressed production lines at its Dallas facility to 5,000 square feet with four-hour robotic turnaround times. The platform has expanded into transportable, trailer-sized robotic "pods" capable of producing sterile injectables, disaster-relief supplies, and custom N-of-1 therapies.
Cuban reports that automated domestic pods can produce solid-dose generics cheaper on a unit basis than certified manufacturers in India. However, immediate onshore scaling faces statutory bottlenecks, including Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Abbreviated New Drug Application fees of $365,000 per formulation, which amounts to $365 million in filing fees alone for 1,000 generic medicines. Consequently, widespread domestic generic rollout remains roughly two years away.
Clinical Transformation: Frontier Models and Human Translators (36:08)
As genomic sequencing costs fall below $99, Cuban anticipates algorithmic design will push the marginal cost of bespoke drug formulations toward zero. He envisions frontier AI labs packaging personalized compound design directly into consumer subscription tiers, supported by localized robotic pods for synthesis. However, intellectual property paywalls around fine-tuning data and proprietary clinical models remain a major operational barrier.
Both Cuban and Yoo reject the premise that artificial intelligence will eliminate physicians. Instead, Yoo suggests the drop in diagnostic costs will trigger a Jevons paradox, escalating aggregate demand for hands-on medical services and elevating clinicians into "physician-scientists." Cuban stresses that static models lack real-time context and sensory awareness, making experienced human bedside clinicians essential. He forecasts the rise of "AI translators" who contextualize real-time biometric and wearable data into valid inputs for clinical models and translate algorithmic outputs into practical patient care.
Reforming Healthcare Financing and Public Policy (47:19)
On the policy front, Cuban advocates mandating complete, unredacted public disclosure for any healthcare contract funded by taxpayer money, noting that roughly 72% of major commercial insurer revenues derive from government programs like Medicare and Medicaid. He also supports expanding the "cash-to-deductible" rule—currently adopted by eight states—nationwide, requiring insurers to credit out-of-pocket cash savings toward a patient's deductible.
To address the perpetual liability of insurance premiums, Cuban proposes replacing traditional coverage with government-guaranteed medical savings accounts. Under this system, individuals would deposit the cash equivalent of an Affordable Care Act Silver plan into a personal account they own. Unanticipated expenses exceeding the balance would be covered by government-guaranteed bank loans repaid via payroll deductions, backstopped by federal stop-loss insurance for catastrophic events above thresholds such as $40,000, leaving remaining balances to the citizen at age 65.
Cuban maintains that true healthcare reform relies on employers aggressively auditing contracts, enforcing public transparency, and decoupling financing from legacy administrative intermediaries, but the speed of adoption remains constrained by FDA regulatory fees, entrenched enterprise purchasing inertia, and proprietary data silos.
精炼阅读摘要
Mark Cuban认为,美国医疗体系的高昂成本根源于传统保险巨头与药品福利管理机构(PBM)的垂直整合与不透明合同;通过推行透明定价、企业自主审计合同以及部署模块化机器人制造,市场参与者可以在无需等待政策改革的前提下从底层重构医疗经济。
垂直整合与合同黑箱推高医疗成本 (0:00)
Mark Cuban指出,传统全国性保险承保商(BUCA,包括Blue Cross Blue Shield、UnitedHealthcare、Cigna、Aetna)与大型PBM通过庞大的关联实体掩盖真实交易成本。例如,UnitedHealth拥有3000多家子公司,每年在内部实体间转移约1500亿美元资金。在覆盖超过1.5亿美国人的雇主自保医疗计划中,占总支出约90%的医疗索赔往往被第三方管理者(ASO/TPA)通过差价定价(spread pricing)操控,并且承保方常拒绝向雇主提供用于对账的原始HIPAA电子数据交换文件(837与835文件)。
利用大模型破除合同壁垒与公开记录审查 (20:00)
针对动辄上千页的福利与采购合同,Cuban认为雇主防御“合同恐怖主义”最有效的方式是在签署前将完整合同输入AI大模型,明确提示模型找出合同中隐藏的掠夺性条款与加价陷阱。他透露自己通过自动化AI智能体扫描公共机构的公开记录与招标信息,自动生成信息公开申请,再将获取的政府与学区合同交由多款前沿大语言模型进行交叉比对与摘要。尽管受访的上市公司高管私下承认通过AI审计合同发现了数以百万美元计的隐性浪费,但因畏惧既有保险巨头报复,多数企业仍不敢在公开财报电话会中讨论相关节支成果。
Cost Plus架构:透明药房与模块化硬件 (5:00)
Cuban创办的Cost Plus Drugs正从初期由111种仿制药拓展至约4000个品规,并在生产与履约两端推进去中介化。在零售端,该公司与17000多家独立药房合作推出Team Cuban Card,通过固定支付每笔12美元的调配费以维持社区药房运转;在生产端,公司在达拉斯建立了占地仅5000平方英尺的高度自动化工厂,其机械臂产线可在4小时内完成换线以应对FDA短缺药清单。此外,公司正在制造拖车尺寸的模块化移动制药舱(每台造价约2000万美元),用于灾难应急制造及个性化N-of-1疗法,但Cuban也强调,由于每个仿制药配方需向FDA缴纳365000美元的简化新药申请(ANDA)规费,国内大规模仿制药制造落地仍面临约两年的监管推进周期。
从被动理赔到医疗储蓄与前端个性化 (50:00)
Cuban主张用更激进的市场机制取代终身绑定的传统健康险:公民可将原本用于支付平价医疗法案(ACA)银牌计划的保费(例如得州五口之家每月约2100美元)存入个人银行账户,发生超出额度的医疗开支时由政府兜底贷款并结合灾难性超额损失险(如40000美元阈值),资金结余在65岁转入Medicare时归个人所有。在技术前沿方面,Cuban预测随着低成本基因测序与算法推断成本骤降,大语言模型将使个性化药物的设计边际成本趋向于零,但他与Julie Yoo一致认为,自动化决策永远无法完全取代临床医生,未来的医生将转向“医生科学家”和“AI翻译官”,负责将客观生物特征数据与复杂的床边情境结合。
公共政策底线与前沿技术的商业化落差 (47:19)
在政策层面,Cuban提倡强制公开所有涉及纳税人资金的医疗采购合同且不得涂黑,并将“自费抵扣免赔额”(cash-to-deductible)规则推行至全美,使自费寻找低价医疗服务的患者能将实际花费计入保险免赔额。与此同时,Cuban批评了前沿AI实验室当前的公关策略,指出OpenAI和Anthropic等机构依然依赖传统新闻稿和高管访谈,完全未能穿透由年轻一代高度定制化社交算法构成的封闭信息茧房,导致技术进步反而伴随民众对数据中心耗能与自动化的现实焦虑。
Cuban提出的医疗平价路径依赖于从自保雇主开始的技术驱动型价格对抗与自主制药基础设施,但这一愿景能否广泛推开,仍取决于能否突破巨头掌控的垂直利益链、庞大的FDA申报合规成本以及整个产业对专有数据与临床知识产权的严格封锁。
Detailed notes — zh
## Background
本期节目由 Erik Torenberg、Julie Yoo 与 Mark Cuban 共同呈现,于 2026 年 10 月 28 日在播客及网络平台发布。根据页面介绍,Mark Cuban 与 a16z 普通合伙人 Julie Yoo 围绕 Cost Plus Drugs 的创办经验展开深度对话,探讨如何以“透明定价”打破美国医疗险企与 PBM 的垄断黑箱,并剖析 AI 在合同审查、个性化制药及未来创业中的真实潜力与边界。
## TL;DR
Mark Cuban 直击美国医疗体系被联合健康(UnitedHealth)等 BUCA 商业巨头与三大 PBM 高度垄断、利用“合同恐怖主义”盘剥雇主与患者的结构性顽疾。他倡导自保雇主直接利用 AI 跑透医疗福利合同中的陷阱条款,并介绍 Cost Plus Drugs 如何通过公开底价 API、线下 17,000 家药房联盟、自研移动制药舱(Pods)以及医院直签模型重塑行业信任机制。同时,Cuban 探讨了边际成本趋零的个性化精准制药、医疗改革替代方案(个人储蓄账户加政府超额止损担保),并强调人类医生在共情与临床把关上的不可替代性,呼吁创业者积极拥抱多模型对话以探索颠覆性业务。
## Atmosphere & style
整场对话充满刺破行业虚伪的辛辣与紧迫感,Mark Cuban 保持着标志性的街头实战派企业家风格,语言犀利直接、毫不避讳对垄断中介与科技巨头营销盲区的痛批。Julie Yoo 与 Erik Torenberg 则以一线风险投资人的宏观视角展开敏锐追问,碰撞出极具张力的思想火花。节目在揭露医疗体制黑幕的沉重现实与展望 AI 赋能未来的澎湃热情之间自如切换,听感兼具解密内幕的痛快感与指引行动的实操启发性。
## Bulletin
- `20:00` Mark Cuban 呼吁全美占 67%、覆盖超 1.6 亿员工的自保雇主在签约前使用 AI 审查医疗福利合同,以瓦解大型保险巨头(BUCAs)和三大 PBM 的暗箱暴利与差价套利体系。
- `05:00` Cost Plus Drugs 正从线上药房扩展至重资产分布式制造,推出单价约 2000 万美元的集装箱式制药舱(Pod),已获美国政府采购,并支持研究型医院开展个体化“N of 1”罕见病治疗。
- `53:07` 针对公众对 AI 与数据中心的抵触情绪,Cuban 批评 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等实验室营销策略落后,呼吁其逆向工程社交媒体算法,像信息渗透一样精准打入年轻群体的算法信息茧房。
- `50:00` Cuban 提出激进的传统医保替代构想:个人将原本缴纳的保费转入专属银行储蓄账户,结合政府担保借贷与联邦超额止损机制(如 4 万美元以上兜底),彻底甩开商业保险公司。
## Key takeaways
- `10:00` 大型商业保险商(BUCA)与 PBM 凭借高度垂直整合控制产业链,自保雇主因拿不到底层原始理赔数据(如 835 和 837 文件)而长期承担高额隐形差价。
- `15:00` 虽然企业开始用 AI 审阅长达上千页的福利合同,但仅在运营端引入 AI 无法根治扭曲的金融体系,支付方与服务方的算法博弈最终只是互相抵消的零和游戏。
- `00:00` Cost Plus Drugs 开放公开定价 API,赋能大型雇主以此数据为杠杆反向压制传统 PBM 的垄断定价权。
- `05:00` 雇主与医院的颠覆性直连模型旨在以“取消预授权审核”和“雇主承担自付额账期风险”,换取医疗机构的极低底价和合同条款全社会公开。
- `23:05` 医疗经济学中最稀缺的资源是信任,Cost Plus Drugs 坚持将加价率公开锚定在 15% 且不做商业广告,靠患者口碑构筑核心护城河。
- `26:30` AI 不会直接消灭初级岗位,而是熟练运用 AI 的复合型人才将取代不懂 AI 的人;同时董事会与高管必须亲身体验 AI 流程以弥补算法缺乏商业直觉的短板。
- `32:41` 普通消费者可利用大模型检索非营利医院的财务救助计划(部分州门槛放宽至联邦贫困线 600%),以规避大型商业保险的高昂保费。
- `35:48` 前沿模型将使基于个人 DNA 的精准制药设计边际成本趋向于零,未来大模型订阅服务可能直接捆绑个体化药物设计。
- `40:00` AI 永远无法取代医生,因为复杂的临床诊断需要人类五感全方位观察、人文共情以及对关键变量的专业提问能力;医生将向“临床科学家”和“AI 翻译官”转型。
- `42:30` 医疗知识产权(IP)壁垒将阻碍开源医疗模型的进化,拥有专有流程和数据的机构倾向于封锁模型并按次高额收费,挑战了“信息渴望自由”的传统假设。
- `48:00` 大型商业保险巨头 72% 的收入来自纳税人,本质上已沦为脱离风险承担的金融套利机构;法律应强制所有接受公共资金的合同彻底向公众公开。
- `57:00` 面对史上最伟大的 AI 技术浪潮,创业者和公众应克服对 AI 的不适感,通过多模型交叉验证和高频互动探索全新的商业模式与破局方案。
## Detailed walkthrough
### `00:00` 医疗体系的结构性失效与 Cost Plus Drugs 的鲶鱼效应
医疗体系的经济模型存在本质上的扭曲。市场严重缺乏竞争机制,大型垂直整合巨头(如拥有超过 3000 家子公司、每年内部关联交易规模达 1500 亿美元的 UnitedHealth)构筑了极其隐秘的利益网络,雇主和患者往往在毫不知情的情况下与这些巨头旗下的关联实体产生交易。Mark Cuban 的核心目标是彻底颠覆医疗行业,让医疗服务重新变得让人负担得起。面对企业雇主,他提出了一条极其直接的操作建议:“拿上你准备签署的医疗福利合同,用 AI 跑一遍,然后问它:‘我到底在哪些地方被坑了?’”(“Take every single contract that you have to sign, run it through AI, and ask where you're getting screwed.” —— Mark Cuban)。Julie Yoo 指出,Mark Cuban 最大的贡献在于凭借自身巨大的社会声量和勇气,直接杀入了这个数十年来让无数资本和从业者望而生畏的行业泥潭。
Cost Plus Drugs 正在通过一种前所未有的“鲶鱼效应”倒逼传统巨头改革。Julie Yoo 观察到,仅仅凭借该公司的存在与象征意义,就已经迫使那些过去数十年对政策与外部阻力无动于衷的既得利益者做出改变。即便很多大型企业尚未与 Cost Plus Drugs 正式签署直采协议,它们也已经在需求端倒逼供应链调整。针对这一点,Mark Cuban 透露,Cost Plus Drugs 开放了自身的公开定价 API,许多精明的大型企业每天都在通过脚本抓取其药品底价,并将这些公开数据直接拍在传统 PBM(药品福利管理机构)和保险公司桌上,要求他们给出更低的价格。更有甚者,有企业反馈称,“三大巨头”(The Big Three PBMs)甚至对外声称 Cost Plus Drugs 是其网络的一部分、声称客户可以通过他们拿到相同低价,但实际上 Cost Plus Drugs 从未与这三大巨头建立过任何合作协议。
- 传统医疗商业模式存在巨额内部转账与信息不对称,雇主长期承担着不透明的溢价成本。
- Cost Plus Drugs 从成立最初的 111 种药品,快速扩充到约 4000 个 SKU,业务量持续保持爆发式增长。
- 企业利用 Cost Plus Drugs 的开放 API 数据作为采购杠杆,瓦解了传统 PBM 的暗箱定价权。
---
### `05:00` 药房网络、集装箱式分布式制药与医院直接采购体系
为了解决邮购药房无法满足急性病用药即时取药的痛点,Cost Plus Drugs 推出了线下取药折扣卡体系(Team Cuban Card)。平台与全美 17,000 家药房(重点扶持独立药房)建立联盟,向合作药房固定支付 12 美元的处方调剂费(fill fee)。尽管这使得 5 美元的低价他汀类药物叠加上 12 美元后在价格上不占优势,但对于价格高昂的特药仿制药(specialty generics)、生物类似药(biosimilars)以及需要冷链运输的胰岛素,该方案为患者省去了昂贵的冷链运费,在线下自提时能够带来巨大的价格优势。
在生产端,联合创始人 Alex Oshmyansky 博士最初通过一封冷邮件联系 Mark Cuban,提议自主生产 FDA 紧缺清单上的仿制药品。他们成功将传统需要占地数个美式足球场规模的制药厂,浓缩进达拉斯仅 5,000 平方英尺的空间内,依托机器人与自动化技术,每 4 小时即可完成一条生产线的转产,能够快速生产六个月的药品库存后无缝切换到下一款紧缺药。更具突破性的是,团队将这些机器人与自动化系统进一步微型化,集成进了尺寸仅相当于一辆半挂牵引卡车货箱(tractor trailer)的移动制药舱(Pod)。美国政府已成为首批客户并追加了订单;这些 Pod 既能在生态、天气或军事灾难时交付给政府机构应急,也可以通过菊花链(daisy chain)相互串联实现产能扩展(例如一个负责无菌注射剂,另一个负责片剂生产)。此外,单价约 2000 万美元的 Pod 还可部署至研究型医院,用于定制化的“N of 1”罕见病个体化疗法,达拉斯工厂也已展开反义寡核苷酸(ASO)药物的生产。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Cost Plus Drugs 商业与基础设施生态架构
accDescr: 展示 Cost Plus Drugs 从线上零售、线下药房到分布式制药与医院直连的完整业务布局
subgraph Retail ["零售与患者触达"]
M1["线上邮购药房<br/>(4000+ SKU)"]
M2["Team Cuban Card 折扣卡<br/>(17,000 家合作独立药房 / 12美元调剂费)"]
end
subgraph Manufacturing ["生产制造能力"]
P1["达拉斯自动化紧缺药工厂<br/>(5000平方英尺 / 4小时转产)"]
P2["移动制药舱 Pods<br/>(卡车货箱尺寸 / 政府应急与 N of 1 定制治疗)"]
end
subgraph B2B ["B2B 与医院生态"]
B1["Cost Plus Marketplace<br/>(成本+10%~12% 直供诊所与医院)"]
B2["雇主-医院直接签约直连模型<br/>(互信机制 / 免预授权 / 价格透明)"]
end
Manufacturing --> Retail
Manufacturing --> B2B
```
在供应链后端,Cost Plus Marketplace 以透明的“成本 + 10%”或“成本 + 12%”价格向诊所与医院直供采购,每年能为单家医院节省数百万美元。然而,该业务的核心阻力在于即便能说服医院 CEO,底层的采购执行人员依然受到旧有体系的惯性制约。针对作为自保雇主(self-insured employer)的痛点,Mark Cuban 正着手推行颠覆性的“雇主-医院直连签约模式”。他向医院管理者开出交换条件:雇主端给予两项承诺——第一,充分信任医生判断,彻底取消繁琐的预先授权(prior authorization)与拒赔机制(denials),严格按时打款;第二,雇主承担患者的自付额(out-of-pocket)信用风险,避免医院沦为催收免赔额的次贷机构。作为交换,医院必须满足两个诉求:“在交换这一切的条件下,我想要两样东西:我想要更低的价格,因为你相关的行政支出、管理成本和医生耗时都大幅减少了,你的净收益会更高;并且我要求有权将我们签署的这份直签合同向全社会公开发布。”(“And in exchange for all that, I want two things. I want a better price because your associated administration and overhead and doctor time is much less. Your yield is going to be higher. And I want the ability to take the contract we signed, this direct contract between us and publicize it.” —— Mark Cuban)。
- Team Cuban Card 绑定 17,000 家线下药房,通过向药房固定让利 12 美元填单费,重点在生物类似药和冷链药品领域攻破传统高价壁垒。
- 达拉斯工厂将传统规模巨大的工厂集约为 5000 平方英尺,产线 4 小时即可灵活转产。
- 集装箱大小的移动 Pod 制药单元单套成本约 2000 万美元,已交付美国政府,并支持研究型医院探索单人量身定制的 N-of-1 基因/特药治疗。
- 医院直签模型以“取消预授权”、“垫付自付额账期风险”换取“极低采购底价”与“合同条款彻底公开”。
### `10:00` 雇主医保体系的黑箱:BUCA 巨头与合同剥削
Mark Cuban 首先提到,他计划将相关的福利合同发布在 costpluswellness.com 上,作为一个完全开源的数据库,供所有雇主免费参考、供供应商上传合同;即使企业不想公开发布,也可以直接将这些内容作为自身商业谈判的模板。Julie Yoo 对此深表赞同,并指出这正是他们此前交流的起点——她不久前刚发表了一篇关于“健康险大替换周期”(The Great Replacement Cycle of Health Plans)的文章。
Julie Yoo 强调,由雇主出资赞助的医疗福利(Employer-sponsored health benefits)是全美规模最大的保险类别,覆盖了约 1.55 亿乃至更多美国人(占全美人口的 60% 以上)。然而,这个庞大的市场长期被 BUCA(Blue Cross Blue Shield、UnitedHealth、Cigna、Aetna 等全美大型商业保险承保商)彻底垄断。对初创公司而言,由于全国性医疗网络的准入门槛高企且行业关系根深蒂固,这曾经是一个根本无法切入的市场。但如今,保费上涨已经到了令人无法容忍的荒唐地步,甚至连投资组合里的初创企业,都面临着部分 BUCA 强加的“保费同比暴涨 60%”的惨状。
Mark Cuban 进一步揭露,实际情况比大家想象的还要恶劣得多,根源在于这些巨头的高度垂直整合。以联合健康(UnitedHealth Group)为例,其旗下拥有 3000 多家子公司,内部跨公司资金往来每年高达 1500 亿美元;如果将其单独立国或按 GDP 排名,它能在全美各州中排到第 14 名。CVS 和 Cigna 同样不遑多让。他们不断推高保费、免赔额(Deductibles)和自付费用(Out-of-pocket costs),背后的实体全部自产自销。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: BUCA Vertical Monopoly and Self-Insured Employer Flow
accDescr: 描述大保险商如何通过子公司、ASO以及信息黑箱控制自保雇主的资金流与数据流
subgraph BUCA["BUCA 垂直垄断巨头 (如 UnitedHealth / CVS / Cigna)"]
Subs["3000+ 家子公司<br/>每年 1500 亿美元内部转账"]
ASO["自营 TPA / ASO<br/>(仅提供行政管理服务)"]
end
subgraph Employer["自保雇主 (覆盖 60% 企业员工)"]
Budget["承担全部医疗赔付风险与资金"]
NoData["无权查看 835 / 837 数据文件<br/>无法核对真实结算价"]
end
subgraph Hospital["医院 / 医疗机构"]
TIC["公开 TIC 价格文件<br/>(往往不准)"]
Service["提供实际诊疗服务"]
end
Budget -->|"支付打包账单 (含隐形差价 Spread Pricing)"| ASO
ASO -->|"压低实际结算金额"| Hospital
Subs -.->|"控制供应链与渠道"| ASO
ASO -.->|"扣留真实理赔明细"| NoData
```
在雇主医保中,约 60% 的员工由自保型雇主(Self-insured employers)提供保障。自保雇主自身承担赔付风险,需要第三方管理者(TPA)来处理医疗理赔;而当这些 TPA 被 BUCA 掌控时,就被称为 ASO(Administrative Services Only,仅提供行政管理服务)。医疗服务侧的市场规模占整个医疗支出的 90% 以上(远大于药店渠道的 10%),这里的猫腻更为严重:
- 自保雇主根本不知道保险计划与医院之间签订的具体协议条款。
- 医院公开的透明度文件(TIC files,Transparency in Coverage)往往存在错误或失真。
- 雇主支付给 ASO 的账单金额,极少与医院实际收到的款项吻合,ASO 从中大赚隐形差价(Spread pricing)。
- 涉及理赔核心数据的 835 文件(电子汇款通知)和 837 文件(医疗理赔电子数据),被 BUCA 控制的 ASO 严防死守,自保雇主甚至无法调取自己花钱买单的理赔原始数据。
Mark Cuban 直言,正是因为体制被操纵到如此地步,“消除它们、绕过中介,才是眼下医疗行业变革的圣杯。”
---
### `15:00` 合同恐怖主义、AI 治标不治本与审查提示词
Julie Yoo 提到,目前大批初创公司正利用 AI 构建全栈式健康险计划,试图以极快速度剥离这些行业冗余与沉疴。Mark Cuban 虽自称是深度的 AI 拥护者,在临床、运营以及合同审查层面极度看好 AI,但他泼了一盆冷水:面对一个从根本上扭曲的金融体系,仅仅把 AI 引入运营流程根本无法修复问题。
医疗市场之所以失灵,是因为它缺乏基本的价格发现机制。更可怕的是,BUCA 凭借其掌控的 ASO 施行严酷的“合同恐怖主义(Contractual terrorism)”:
- 达拉斯市(City of Dallas)单单一份药房福利管理(PBM)合同就长达 1335 页。
- Mark Cuban 感叹:“全世界的人类就算喝光所有的咖啡,也抓不出他们试图在合同里夹带私货塞进去的所有陷阱。”
- 一旦雇主签署了包含未理解条款和无法防范条件的合同,“他们就赢了,这颗星球上没有任何 AI 能救得了你。”
在谈到保险支付方与医疗服务机构之间利用 AI 进行的“预先授权审核攻防战(Prior-authorization bot wars)”、AI 辅助自动高码(Upcoding)与低码(Downcoding)争夺时,Mark Cuban 认为这只是短期的“零和博弈”:
> “你的 AI 对抗我的 AI,你的 OpenAI 对抗我的 Anthropic,管它是哪个,大家互相搏杀,你可能赢几局,我可能赢几局,但最终在某种层面上全都会互相抵消。”
关于传统巨头的劣势与雇主破局的实操手段,Mark Cuban 指出:
- **BUCA 的先天劣势**:BUCA 靠巨量并购整合了数千家子公司,数据极度孤岛化,极难转变成真正的 AI 原生企业,长期来看必将面临巨大挑战。这也是他极力支持拆分大医疗垄断企业法案(Break Up Big Medicine Act)的原因。
- **雇主的即刻行动法**:所有被投企业的 CEO 应当立刻把现有的福利合同、经纪人合同、顾问合同、TPA 和 PBM 合同直接扔进 AI,输入一道最简短直接的 Prompt:
> “他们究竟在哪些地方坑了我,我该怎么对付他们?”(Where are they fucking me over and what should I do about it?)
- **立竿见影的效果**:不到 30 秒,AI Agent 就会把合同里隐藏的苛刻条款一字排开全盘剖析。
在谈到自己对各类 AI Agent 的重度使用时,Mark Cuban 还展现了幽默的一面。他和 Erik Torenberg 都是狂热的 NBA 球迷,他笑称自己订购了 Grok,原因就是它的价格是 77 美元(约合 77.69 美元),正好对应独行侠球星卢卡·东契奇(Luka Dončić)的 77 号球衣,他戏称其为“卢卡计划”;此外,他同时订阅并深度测试了 Gemini、OpenAI 等几乎所有市面上的主流大模型。
### `20:00` 利用 AI 智能体抓取公开记录与重构医保合同谈判
Mark Cuban 详细分享了他利用 AI 智能体(AI Agents)刺破医疗暴利黑箱的操作手法。他设定了一套自动化工作流:让 AI 智能体自主检索全美所有具备信息公开(Open Records)义务的州立实体、公共机构和企业,搜集它们过往签署的每一份合同与招标文件(RFP)。智能体不仅能定向抓取这些文件,还会自动拟好正式的公开记录索取函存入草稿箱,Cuban 稍作个性化调整后便可一键发送。所有获取到的合同会被集中上传至 Google Drive,并接入各类底层大语言模型(LLMs)。每当有新合同归档,AI 就会立即自动通读全文,分门别类列出核心条款、潜在陷阱、应对建议,并生成一份语言精练的摘要,方便 Cuban 直接转发给涉事的学校、市政机构或企业。
这一套流程让 Cuban 彻底看清了三大药房福利管理公司(PBMs)与四大商业健康保险巨头(BUCAs,即 Blue Cross Blue Shield、UnitedHealthcare、Cigna 和 Aetna)在行政服务合同(ASO)中设置的重重套路。从丹佛、达拉斯到沃思堡的校区、市政当局再到工会组织,各类公共机构在医保采购中被大幅加价的惨状触目惊心。Cuban 强调,全美 67% 的雇主覆盖了超过 1.6 亿美国人的医保,如果这些企业在签字前普遍推行一项极简举措——用 AI 审阅合同,整个被垄断利益集团绑架的收费体系将瞬间瓦解。他经常劝诫前来寻求政策建议的投资人和企业高管,根本无需等待国会立法,只要安排专人借助 AI 重新梳理并谈判医保合同,任何超过 1500 名员工或参保人的机构都能立即挤出数百万美元的水分。甚至有数家上市公司在依计行事后震惊于自己过去被宰之深,但即便 Cuban 苦苦相劝,管理层依然不敢在季度财报电话会议上公开点名这些保险巨头,生怕断绝未来的业务往来。
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: AI-Driven Healthcare Contract Audit Workflow
accDescr: A visual representation of Mark Cuban's workflow using AI to audit opaque healthcare contracts.
subgraph DataCollection["数据检索与收集"]
A["公开记录机会检索"] --> B["自动起草申请函"]
B --> C["Google Drive 统一归档"]
end
subgraph Analysis["模型审查与解析"]
C --> D["LLM 并行扫描合同"]
D --> E["生成优劣势与应对方案"]
E --> F["输出通俗精简版报告"]
end
subgraph Negotiation["雇主反制与降本"]
F --> G["刺破 PBM 与 BUCA 溢价"]
G --> H["重新谈判并直接剥离合同"]
end
```
- Mark Cuban 直言:“If that representing 67%, the 160 million plus Americans actually did one thing, ran their contracts through AI before they signed them and negotiated from that, the entire system for the big BUCAs and big PBMs and all their subsidiaries would collapse.”(如果代表着全美 67%、超过 1.6 亿美国人的雇主真正做了一件事——在签字前把合同放进 AI 跑一遍并据此展开谈判,大型保险巨头、大型 PBM 及其所有子公司的整个体系都会彻底崩溃。)
- 针对雇主寄希望于政策变革的惰性思维,Mark Cuban 强调:“I'm like, no, you need to be smart and do your job and bring in somebody that I call job is to manage the contracts and everything associated with it.”(我说不,你们需要学聪明点、做好本职工作,招一个专门负责管理合同及相关一切事宜的人。)
---
### `23:05` Cost Plus Drugs 的终极愿景、信任护城河与本土制药“胶囊舱”
在被问及 Cost Plus Drugs 未来数年的宏观蓝图与推进节奏时,Mark Cuban 阐述了将医疗彻底平民化的深层野心。尽管他个人支持全民医保(Universal Healthcare),但他认为如果在基础成本和数据彻底公开之前盲目推行全民医保,系统根本无法运转;唯有在真实透明的数据驱动下,市场才能做出合理决策。在零售端,Cuban 甚至毫不介意竞争对手跟进打价格战。即便未来有人打出“成本加价 1%(Cost Plus 1%)”的旗号,也无法轻易动摇其根基,因为医疗经济学中最稀缺的资源不是价格,而是长期积累的“信任”。Cost Plus Drugs 从不投放商业广告,完全仰仗患者在省下药费后口口相传;这种严格将加价率公开锚定在 15% 的透明作风,构筑了平台的核心壁垒。
在供应链与制造端,Cuban 透露了更为激进的重资产突围路线:推广每台售价约 2000 万美元的模块化制药舱(Pods)。这种高度灵活的制造单元拥有极高的利润空间,公司规划在未来两年内实现每年售出数百台,五年内达到年销量数千台的规模。如果一年能稳定出货 1000 台制造舱,将撬动 200 亿美元的年收入,直接改变整个制药工业的生产格局。通过在德克萨斯州达拉斯本地串联这些制造舱,公司生产片剂仿制药的实际成本甚至比从印度合作药厂进口还要低廉。目前唯一制约放量的是繁琐的监管壁垒:每款仿制药向 FDA 提交“简略新药申请”(ANDA)的行政审查规费就高达 36.5 万美元;若要覆盖 1000 种通用名药物,仅申请费就需要 3.65 亿美元。公司正积极推进相关审查,计划在未来两年左右于官网用美国国旗图标标注自产本土药品,从底层击穿海外代工的供应链脆弱性。
- 谈到公司的真正护城河,Mark Cuban 总结道:“Trust is still our primary product.”(信任依然是我们的核心产品。)
- 针对低价与信任的关系,Mark Cuban 回忆起创业初期的行业质疑:“When we first got started, all the people who came from pharmacy said, oh, you're going to get killed. I'm like, no. People are going to tell others how much money they save. And then they're going to trust us. And that's the one thing missing in all of healthcare economics, trust.”(刚起步时,所有来自药房行业的人都说,哦,你们会被干掉的。我说才不会。人们会告诉身边人自己省了多少钱,进而信任我们。而信任,正是整个医疗经济学中唯一缺失的东西。)
- 谈及大规模销售制药舱的产业野心,Mark Cuban 笑着调侃:“If we selling billion worth of pods a year watch out Elon.”(如果我们一年能卖出价值几十上百亿的制造舱,埃隆·马斯克你可得小心了。)
---
### `26:30` 规模捕获陷阱与 AI 时代医疗组织的重塑路径
针对技术能否自发颠覆医疗生态的疑问,Mark Cuban 给出了否定回答。他剖析指出,当下的医疗市场充斥着极其严密的“监管捕获(Regulatory Capture)”与“规模捕获(Scale Capture)”,巨头依靠庞大的垂直整合体系掌控了经济主导权。投资者只要翻看联合健康或 CVS 等巨头的财报记录就会发现,管理层口中的“技术驱动”永远只服务于提高自身每股收益、扩大股票回购和提升股东回报,从来没有任何一家公司承诺过利用技术降低企业雇主与患者的账单。正因如此,Cost Plus Drugs 绝不与大型中间商直接媾和,而是坚决选择在体制外另辟蹊径,避免沦入复杂的格式合同陷阱。
谈到 AI 对医疗乃至整体白领就业市场的冲击,Cuban 反驳了“初级岗位将被完全消灭”的悲观论调,并梳理出三层应对逻辑。首先,无论底层基础模型多么强大,其知识库一旦训练完成便不可避免地产生时延(Latency),落后于瞬息万变的现实世界;企业必须保留并培养初级员工充当“人在回路(Human in the loop)”,去构建业务上下文、跟踪新变化并理解模型决策的后果。其次,全行业需要系统性重训白领员工,因为颠覆职业的从来不是 AI 算法本身,而是熟练运用 AI 的高阶复合人才。最后,真正的破局点在于改造管理层的大脑:董事会与首席高管(C-Suite)必须亲身体验并理解 Agent 协作流程、开源与闭源架构差异以及大语言模型纯文本处理与真实多模态世界的距离。Cuban 强调,AI 充其量只是精通书本知识的“学霸(Book smart)”,却根本没有应对复杂商业实战的“江湖智慧(Street smart)”与“企业家嗅觉”;高管唯有亲自摸清技术底牌,才能驾驭 AI 挖掘出颠覆性的商业机会。
- Mark Cuban 针对 AI 替代就业的核心判断掷地有声:“AI doesn't replace jobs. People who know how to use AI replace the jobs of people who don't know how to use AI.”(AI 不会取代工作。懂得使用 AI 的人会取代那些不懂使用 AI 之人的工作。)
- 针对大型垂直整合巨头的虚伪宣传,Mark Cuban 批评道:“When you listen to the conference calls or read the transcripts for all those big vertically integrated companies, they talk about technology. But the one thing they never say is this is going to translate into lower costs for employers and patients. They always say this is going to improve our earnings.”(当你收听那些大型垂直整合公司的财报电话会或阅读纪要时,他们大谈特谈技术。但他们绝不会说的一句话是,这将转化为雇主和患者成本的降低。他们总是在说,这将提高我们的利润。)
- 强调人类战略引领的不可或缺性,Mark Cuban 指出:“AI is not smart. It's book smart, maybe, but it's not street smart. It's not entrepreneur smart. You've got to have somebody there who guides it and helps it.”(AI 并不真正聪明。它或许具备书本式的聪明,但它缺乏街头实战的精明,也没有企业家的商业智慧。你必须有人守在旁边去引导它、辅佐它。)
### `30:00` 生成式 AI 颠覆商业制造与智能体经济的萌芽
Mark Cuban 讲述了几个月前与一家食品公司企业家的交流。对方当时正在规划收购,理由是“GLP-1 减肥药的爆火正在冲击食品行业”。Cuban 当场建议用 AI 跑一次压力测试:他打开 ChatGPT,输入该公司的头牌产品(曲奇饼干),要求 AI 设计一款更契合 GLP-1 药物服用者需求、且定价更低的竞品,同时生成完整的物料清单(BOM)、原料来源以及生产制造流程。仅仅用了大约三分钟,AI 就交出了一套完整方案,对方当场目瞪口呆,惊呼“Oh, shit. No idea”。Cuban 指出,许多传统组织的最大痛点,在于根本不知道如何赋能公司去拥抱 AI。
与此同时,对于创业者而言,现在正是千载难逢的黄金时代。未来很可能会诞生“在地下室里靠一个人打造出的万亿级富翁”,或者利用自主运行的智能体集群(Agent swarm)创立全新企业。然而,当前的自主智能体(Agents)仍面临明显的技术短板:
- 智能体无法主动观看社交媒体帖子、广告,也难以大规模解析多媒体内容背后的商业信息。
- 如果未来转向以智能体驱动的个人消费经济,商业信息的传递与沟通方式必须彻底重塑。
- Cuban 透露自己与团队曾开发过一个实验项目 `agentfeeds.dev`,用户只需将社交动态的文本抓取并导入,其他人便能将这些信息流一键复制给自己的智能体,帮助智能体实时追踪特定垂直领域的商业与广告动态。
### `32:41` 消费者医疗维权:AI 解密非营利医院经济援助与打破 BUKA 垄断
在探讨医疗体系时,Cuban 强调,除临床诊疗之外,AI 产生最大颠覆的领域将是“患者与消费者端”,尤其是处理经济账目与福利说明书(EOB, Explanation of Benefits)。全美大约有 40% 的人掏不出 400 美元的应急开销,医疗账单引发了广泛的社会恐慌。对此,Cuban 建议普通人在面临医疗需求前,主动让 AI 汇总当地所有非营利医院的名单及其财务援助计划(Financial Assistance Programs)。
法律要求所有非营利医院必须设立财务救助方案,其援助标准通常以联邦贫困线(FPL)为基准,但在很多州,援助资格可放宽至联邦贫困线水平的 600%(对部分家庭而言年收入超过 10 万美元仍可达标)。部分人甚至可以通过 AI 算账发现,与其缴纳高昂的医保保费,不如将这笔资金存入货币市场基金赚取利息,直接利用非营利医院的救济政策解决突发医疗需求。
Cuban 批评各大医院管理层完全不懂营销,过度依赖传统的 BUKA 商业巨头(Blue Cross Blue Shield、UnitedHealthcare、Kaiser Permanente、Aetna 等大型保险公司)及其封闭网络来导入病患。医院本可以通过 AI 智能体降低门槛,将援助流程直接打包成可复制的提示词或代理服务,赋能中小型企业与普通大众。面对公众对 AI 的疑虑,Cuban 回忆起上世纪 80 年代人们对电子表格(如售价 500 美元的 Lotus 1-2-3)或计算器的恐惧,断言技术普及只是时间问题,而消除恐惧的最佳途径,就是证明 AI 能在灾难降临时切实保护个人利益并省下真金白银。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: AI赋能患者破除非营利医院高额账单流程图
accDescr: 展示患者如何通过大语言模型查询非营利医院救济政策并规避传统保险巨头盘剥的逻辑闭环。
subgraph User["患者 / 消费者"]
A["遭遇医疗支出困境 / 400美元应急危机"] --> B["调用 AI 模型 / 个人 Agent"]
end
subgraph AI_Workflow["AI 检索与财务决策"]
B --> C["检索本地非营利医院名单"]
C --> D["匹配财务救助计划<br/>(最高可达 600% 联邦贫困线)"]
D --> E{"权衡经济方案"}
E -->|"方案 1"| F["保费存入货币市场基金生息 + 申请医院救助"]
E -->|"方案 2"| G["跳过 BUKA 保险中介直接协商自费与止损"]
end
subgraph Hospital["医院端变革"]
D -.-> H["打破 BUKA 垄断病源"]
H --> I["非营利医院通过 Agent 直接获客与履约"]
end
```
### `35:48` 顶级前沿模型重构制药:迈向边际成本为零的个体化精准医疗
主持人引用 Aaron Swartz 的名言“信息渴望自由”(Information wants to be free),询问 OpenAI、Anthropic 等前沿实验室(Frontier Labs)将如何击碎医疗数据孤岛、彻底重构医疗行业格局。Mark Cuban 直截了当地指出,随着底层算法的跃迁与算力提升,个性化制药的边际设计成本最终将无限趋向于零:
> “The cost of designing a drug personalized to you after reviewing your DNA and knowing everything that it knows will start approaching zero.” —— Mark Cuban
Cuban 分析了这一技术跃迁的落地路径与商业想象空间:
- **算法驱动打破硬件瓶颈**:尽管当前 GPU 算力、集群网络与电力消耗是行业焦点,但推动飞跃的核心动力将是算法本身对人体与大脑多变量机制的深度解析。
- **从非处方药(OTC)到高阶处方药**:目前的用药机制极度原始且不合理——所有人都去药房购买一模一样的 Advil(布洛芬)或 Tylenol(对乙酰氨基酚),全凭肉身试药;在需要抗凝时也只能在 Eliquis、Xarelto 或 Warfarin 之间粗糙选择。未来 AI 将率先实现 OTC 药物的个体化定制,继而过渡到复杂处方药,实现真正针对单个个体的“N of 1”精准治疗。
- **与大模型订阅制捆绑**:Cuban 透露曾向前沿模型团队建言,未来应将个性化药物定制直接打包进 20 美元或 200 美元的月度会员体系中。正如 23andMe 已将 DNA 检测打压至 99 美元乃至更低,用户授权基因数据后,模型便能持续监测潜在健康风险。
- **Cost Plus Drugs 的制造闭环**:Cuban 坦言这也是在为自己的事业打广告,因为无论前沿模型在数字端设计药物的速度有多快,最终依然需要在物理世界落地制造。他建立的柔性制造中心(Pods)正是为了提供实时个性化药品生产能力,并坚信在极长一段时间内,这套生产闭环在行业中都难觅对手。
### `40:00` 为什么 AI 永远无法取代医生:五感共情与个性化医疗的局限
Julie Yoo 指出,随着个性化药物研发的推进,药物对个人的疗效将越来越好,但这反而是对传统医疗交付模式最大的颠覆力量。因为在现有医疗体系中,医生的大量工作实际上是帮助病人排查“为什么这种药对自己无效”、微调剂量(titration)以及指导调整日常行为。
Mark Cuban 强调,由于现实世界中的生理延迟和复杂反应,人类医生依然不可或缺。他打了个生动的比方:如果自己走进医院尝试了一种全新的个性化药物,然后当场开始剧烈呕吐,即使有视频记录、有机器人站在旁边问“Mark 你感觉怎么样”,甚至走进来一个“终结者(Terminator)”冷酷地说“你的大限已到”,他也绝不希望面对冷冰冰的机器。病人需要一个具备人类全部五感的人在场,能够观察全貌、询问细节,并感知身旁正在哭泣的母亲或孩子的情绪,将这些人文环境融入诊断。
Mark Cuban 坚信技术永远无法取代医生,他直截了当地指出:“And so I don’t think ever that we’ll replace doctors and we shouldn’t even try because, and you guys know particularly for this, you still have to know the questions to ask.”(所以我认为我们永远无法取代医生,我们甚至不该去尝试,因为正如你们所知,你仍然必须知道该问什么问题)。即使未来算力成本趋近于零,调用计算依然有时间成本,依然需要受过系统专业教育的人去判断哪些变量真正重要、哪些不重要。
对于医学院培训的未来,Mark 预测课程体系将发生彻底变革。医生不再被要求死记硬背相同的传统教条,而是必须掌握如何使用 OpenEvidence 等前沿工具来提取信息、理解患者独特的 DNA 数据以及 AI 模型对其评估的含义,并充当翻译官将这些内容精准传达给患者。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: AI医疗与人类医生的角色分工
accDescr: 展示前沿AI模型如何处理数据,以及人类医生如何通过五感与共情提供不可替代的医疗交付
subgraph DataLevel ["技术与数据层"]
A["个人专属数据 / DNA"] --> B["个性化 AI 模型"]
B --> C["前沿临床推断 (OpenEvidence)"]
end
subgraph HumanLevel ["人类医生交付层"]
C --> D["医生科学分析与把关"]
E["五感现场观察 (病症反应)"] --> D
F["人文共情 (患者与家属情绪)"] --> D
D --> G["个性化诊疗方案落地"]
end
```
---
### `42:30` 知识产权(IP)新困局:闭源模型与医生向“临床科学家”的转型
谈及医疗 AI 的落地难题,Mark Cuban 认为理论上要想达到完美状态,每个人都需要拥有专属于自己的个性化模型,这意味着未来将诞生数以亿计甚至十亿计的模型。然而,知识产权(IP)正成为一个棘手的阻碍。过去学术界遵循“不发表就发霉(publish or perish)”的开源或专利许可逻辑;而现在,任何 12 岁的少年都可能看了一眼公开专利后稍作修改便据为己有。因此,许多研发出医疗新流程或新技术的机构和医生选择封锁知识产权,要求外界必须付费访问其模型(例如每次推理调用收取 9,999 美元),或者强制绑定特定软件,绝不轻易免费出让核心资产。
Mark 尖锐地反驳了硅谷经典的理念:
> “The information may want to be free, but the person who owns the IP feels differently.”(信息或许渴望自由,但拥有知识产权的人可不这么想。)
业界目前热衷于讨论“哪种模型前端能以最低成本解答问题”,却普遍忽视了一个根本困境:在模型预训练、后训练或检索增强生成(RAG)阶段,如果关键数据的所有者拒绝公开这些必不可少的 IP,模型该如何获取核心能力?
Julie Yoo 顺着这一逻辑补充道,未来对医生的需求量非但不会减少,反而会大幅激增。随着医疗健康建议变得越来越充沛,公众对实际实体医疗服务的需求也将成倍上升。目前的医生工作往往充斥着机械化填表、指标考核等“无需动脑”的繁杂任务,而未来的医生将真正转型为“临床科学家(Physician Scientists)”。他们站在收集全新个体数据(Novel Data)的最前沿,在群体统计学尚未覆盖的人类前沿领域,为单一患者提炼独一无二的洞察。
- **个体与数据的等式**:Mark Cuban 极为赞同这一愿景,强调“全新数据(Novel data)在定义上就等同于个人(Personal)”。
- **临床科学家的核心使命**:从单纯执行医疗质量指标的日常流程,升级为捕捉未知临床反应并生成全新洞察的探索者。
---
### `45:00` 连续监测与“AI翻译官”崛起;电子病历(EHR)巨头难以颠覆
对于新型数据的获取,Julie 提到连续纵向监测(Longitudinal Monitoring)的普及。以血压测量为例,现行体系下一整年才测一次血压是极其荒谬的,因为血压每时每刻都在波动。Mark 随即亮出自己的设备打趣称自己早就戴上了前沿监测工具;Julie 指出,未来的可穿戴设备将实现每日全天候实时监测,让患者能够精准掌握身体对治疗干预、饮食以及运动的即时反馈。
Mark 进一步指出,海量前沿数据的涌现将催生一种全新的关键职业形态——“AI 翻译官(AI Translators)”。广大普通大众只想过好自己的充沛生活,根本无法跟上瞬息万变的技术;因此必须有专业人员扮演桥梁角色:
1. 深入患者的独特情境,梳理并提取 AI 所必需的特异性输入;
2. 将 AI 的推断结果翻译成对该个体具备切实指导意义的行动方案。这种需要高度信任与深度挖掘的工作,绝不是依靠一个走来走去的人形机器人就能轻易完成的。
当 Erik Torenberg 问及医疗体系中另一大根深蒂固的垄断力量——电子健康病历(EHR)系统在 AI 时代的前景时,Mark Cuban 坦言其壁垒极高。他承认 EHR 领域基本被 Epic 绝对垄断,“这是属于他们的世界(it's their world)”,因此 Cost Plus Drugs 选择了与之合作而非正面对抗。Cost Plus Drugs 与 Epic 以及亚马逊达成了合作,力求在医生开具处方(Point of Script)的当下,直接在系统中向医生展示透明的药品价格与不同方案。不过,Mark 忍不住吐槽了传统医疗软件行业的拖延作风:尽管这项重磅合作已经对外官宣,但实际系统落地却被拖延至次年五月才能上线,令人啼笑皆非。
---
### `48:00` 医疗支出的经济学价值与 Mark Cuban 的参选政策纲领
关于医疗支出占美国 GDP 比例(目前约占五分之一至六分之一)的宏观讨论,Erik Torenberg 询问在未来 10 年内,随着效率提升与经济增长,医疗需求是否依然会死死卡在 GDP 20% 的终极极限。Mark Cuban 认为这一占比数字可能确实不会大幅下降,但支出的“含金量”将迎来质的飞跃。
Mark 阐述道,以往的高昂花销都沉没在“病人护理(Sick Care)”的被动救治中,而未来则是投资于“维持健康”。健康人群将减少病休误工时间,学习能力与精力更加旺盛,从而换来全社会生产力的大幅暴增,这种潜在回报是现有体系根本无法比拟的。
访谈尾声,Erik 提到一位知名民调专家曾透露,如果 Mark Cuban 竞选公职,他极有胜选可能,并借此询问 Mark 的核心政策主张。Mark 毫不犹豫地列出了他在各州听证会上作证时的政策清单:
1. **全面公开公共资金合同**:任何接收纳税人资金的机构,其所有合同必须百分之百向公众公开,严禁任何涂黑掩盖(No redactions)。Mark 强调,唯有信息彻底对称,才能催生高效运作的市场机制,从根本上压低虚高成本。
2. **自费差额计入自免额度(Deductible)**:如果患者在保险计划之外找到了价格更低的同等自费医疗服务,法律应强制允许该支出全额计入其医保自免额度(目前全美已有 8 个州在不同程度上推行该政策)。
3. **斩断保险巨头的套利模式**:Mark 揭露了当前大型商业保险公司的运作本质,指控其已彻底背离承担风险的初衷,他直言:
> “72% of those big carriers' revenue comes from taxpayers. They don't take risk anymore. They off it. Everything's an arbitrage for them.”(那些大型保险巨头 72% 的收入都直接来自纳税人。他们根本不再承担风险,他们把风险全部甩掉,对他们来说一切都只是一场套利。)
在 Mark 看来,公众既然掏出了纳税钱,就拥有不可侵犯的知情权与选择权,撕破中间商的暗箱操作正是破除医疗暴利的起点。
### `50:00` 颠覆传统医保:基于个人储蓄、银行贷款与政府兜底的全新构想
Mark Cuban 提出了一个激进且具体的医疗保障替代方案。他指出,我们一生中唯一一笔直到死都无法还清的债务,就是医疗保险保费。除非你符合 Medicaid(白医疗救济)资格,否则无论是商业医保还是 Medicare,你都必须不停地缴费,直到生命结束;更讽刺的是,真正需要用它的时候,你还得拼命跟保险公司抗争去争取报销。Mark Cuban 认为现在的制度完全本末倒置。他建议,完全可以设立一种全新的计划:个人不再向传统保险公司交钱,而是把你原本要交的保费——例如根据平价医疗法案(ACA)银牌计划(Silver Plan)的标准金额——直接存入个人银行账户。
以得克萨斯州一个五口之家为例,按特定收入计算保费可能是每月 2,100 美元。Mark Cuban 设想,只要参加这个计划,你就必须定期将这笔钱存入属于自己的独立账户,这笔资金完全归个人所有且持续累积。如果在日常生活中遭遇突发医疗事件,首先从该账户支出;若积蓄不足,则启动与银行预先达成的机制:一部分存款预先用于购买超额损失防范(Stop-loss coverage,例如超过 4 万美元的部分由联邦止损计划兜底);而在此金额之下的医疗缺口,银行会向你提供定向贷款,并由联邦或州政府予以全额担保,直接打款给医疗机构,同时从你的后续工资中按期扣除还款。
Mark Cuban 尖锐地批评了美国政府当前的担保机制:联邦政府愿意担保学生贷款、小企业管理局(SBA)贷款、住房贷款乃至农业补贴,却对最基础的医疗救助放任不管,逼得人们只能自认倒霉或推给医院急诊兜底。如果采用这种“个人存款 + 银行与政府担保贷款 + 联邦超额止损”的闭环模式,人们就可以彻底甩开保险公司。正如 Mark Cuban 所说:“现在突然之间,再见吧保险公司。突然之间,你不再需要去抗争了,因为这是你自己的钱,由你自由支配。”(“Now, all of a sudden, Bye-bye insurance companies. Now, all of a sudden, you're not fighting back because it's your money to spend as you choose.”)当然,系统需要设定合规消费门槛,防止有人乱花在非法游医身上,但整体上将把决定权还给民众。
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Mark Cuban 提出的医疗储蓄与保障替代模式
accDescr: 展示个人存款、银行借贷、政府担保与超额止损机制如何共同运作以替代传统保险公司
subgraph 资金积累与基础支付
A["个人每月存入相当保费金额<br/>(例如 ACA 银牌计划约 $2,100/月)"] --> B["个人专属医疗账户 (资金归个人所有)"]
B --> C{"发生医疗支出?"}
C -->|"账户余额充足"| D["直接自付医疗费用"]
end
subgraph 缺口与大病救助机制
C -->|"账户余额不足"| E["银行垫付贷款 (直接付给医疗机构)"]
E --> F["从未来工资中定期还款"]
G["联邦/州政府担保贷款"] -.->|"防止医疗机构坏账"| E
B -->|"划拨小部分存款"| H["联邦超额止损计划 (Stop-loss)"]
H -->|"超过门槛费用 (如 $40,000+)"| I["政府全额承担大病开销"]
end
subgraph 退休收益
B -->|"若一生健康未动用"| J["满 65 岁转 Medicare 时<br/>结余款项全部提取归个人"]
end
```
- 该方案如果推行,参与者在 65 岁转入 Medicare 时,若一生健康少病,账户中累积的所有存款将全部归个人所有,成为一笔可观的退休养老金。
- 设定超额止损点(Stop-loss threshold,例如 40,000 美元),超过部分由公共系统吸收,解决灾难性大病带来的破产危机。
---
### `53:07` AI 公司的营销盲区与社交媒体的“算法孤岛”
当 Erik Torenberg 问及 Mark Cuban 作为营销和叙事高手,会给在美国公众中口碑不佳的 AI 行业(如 OpenAI、Anthropic)以及深陷争议的数据中心建设提供什么建议时,Mark Cuban 毫不留情地直言:“我和他们聊过这些,我直接告诉他们,他们太蠢了。”(“I've had these conversations, right, with them. And I told them they're idiots, you know.”)他指出,科技精英们根本没有意识到当今美国公众思想被社交媒体算法割裂到了何种程度。
Mark Cuban 举了一个身边的生动例子:他最近与一位同行业、23 岁的年轻同事聊起刚结束的投票。当被问及身边的同龄人投给谁时,那位同事表示,在得克萨斯州生活的一众 23、24 岁的朋友甚至压根不知道 Ken Paxton(得州总检察长)或 James Talarico(得州众议员)是谁。这在关心政治的人看来难以置信,但它确凿证明了一点:算法只会推荐你主动寻找的东西。如今根本不存在一个共享同一套信息体系的公众群体;社交平台(如 TikTok、Instagram)只要在法律和安全底线之内,完全不在乎喂给用户什么,只顾无休止地推流迎合,导致每个人看到的世界都完全不同。
Mark Cuban 强调,如果这些 AI 头部公司自诩拥有全世界最顶尖的技术,他们就应该有能力逆向工程这些社交媒体推荐算法,并设计出高度精细化、切入每个人信息流的营销程序,而不是指望在电视球赛上狂轰滥炸买广告、发白皮书。传统的电视广告或许能打动投票率高的老年群体,但根本无法改变年轻一代对 AI 的真实认知。
---
### `55:00` 数据中心恐慌、Section 230 与个性化信息流的真相
深入分析公众对 AI 的负面情绪时,Mark Cuban 指出,如今社会上对“数据中心建设”的强烈反弹,在本质上只是大众无法理解复杂 AI 系统的替罪羊与投射。同时,许多地方社区在与科技巨头谈判数据中心落地协议时表现得非常幼稚,轻易陷入了合同绑架。然而更深层的问题在于,立法者、总统以及大模型厂商本身,至今仍未能真正正视社交媒体算法在现实中造成的撕裂力量。
只要美国互联网法案中的“Section 230”(通信规范法第 230 条免责条款)依然生效,或者美国不像澳大利亚或某些州那样对 16 岁以下青少年实施严格的社交平台限制,信息茧房的状态就无法扭转。Mark Cuban 形象地拿自己 17 岁的儿子举例:要想了解孩子在想什么,唯一的方法就是看他的手机信息流。他儿子的 TikTok 推送是“篮球、篮球、篮球,偶尔闪过一点政治话题,然后是漂亮女孩、漂亮女孩,紧接着又是篮球与汽车”,这就是一个典型的 17 岁男孩的世界。
针对 OpenAI 和 Anthropic 等前沿模型公司(Frontier model labs),Mark Cuban 给出严厉告诫:不要再躲在象牙塔里发布毫无意义的宏观立场白皮书(Position papers)。“必须用你们的 AI 进行全面细分,像俄罗斯人做信息渗透那样去精准营销,因为这对你们的生死存亡至关重要。”大模型厂商如果不能融入并渗透到每个人的算法信息流中,就根本无法扭转社会大众的认知偏见。
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### `57:00` 史上最伟大的技术变革:两种创业者与学会“同 AI 对话”
当 Julie Yoo 问及 Mark Cuban 在创业生态中是否看到了什么尚未被充分开发的“空白蓝海”时,Mark Cuban 的回答出人意料:“全部都是。”(“All of them.”)他解释称,在当前的技术拐点上,一切领域都在被重新定义。他常常告诫年轻一代和各路创业者:未来只有两种公司——精通运用 AI 的公司,以及倒闭破产的公司。而面对 AI 时,人也只分为两种:“一种是用 AI 来学习任何事物的人,另一种是用 AI 来让自己什么都不必学的人。”(“Those who use AI to learn anything and those who use AI so they don't have to learn anything.”)
Mark Cuban 指出,当前 50 岁、60 岁乃至 70 岁的创业者面临的最大心理障碍,就是放下身段、自在地与 AI 对话(无论是通过打字还是语音交互)。这就好比电子表格刚出现时,老派职员总要拿台 10 键机械计算器一遍遍手动核对一样。虽然人们确实需要核对 AI 的输出结果,但更应该学会多模型交叉验证:把 Grok 的输出扔给 ChatGPT,并对它说“你的同行是这么分析这份合同的,你怎么看?”,花上几小时不断深挖。
在 Mark Cuban 经历过的所有技术浪潮中,AI 是颠覆性最强、规模最宏大的转折性技术。硅谷和湾区的年轻一代因为身处浓厚的创业氛围中略占先机,但一旦全美乃至全球创业者突破了对 AI 的生疏感与畏惧心,市场上必然会涌现出前所未见的企业形态。他最后勉励所有人:即使把两部手机贴在一起让两个 AI 互相辩论听取灵感,也不要为尝试荒谬、怪异的 AI 用法感到尴尬,“勇敢去尝试那些让你觉得不适和古怪的 AI 探索,因为这种不适感,往往正是通往开创性与颠覆性成果的必经之路。”(“Don't be shy about using AI and things that feel really uncomfortable and weird, because that uncomfortableness is probably the path to something that is groundbreaking and game changing.”)
## Notable quotes
> `26:30` AI doesn't replace jobs. People who know how to use AI replace the jobs of people who don't know how to use AI. — Mark Cuban
> `00:00` Take every single contract that you have to sign, run it through AI, and ask where you're getting screwed. — Mark Cuban
> `26:30` AI is not smart. It's book smart, maybe, but it's not street smart. It's not entrepreneur smart. You've got to have somebody there who guides it and helps it. — Mark Cuban
> `35:48` The cost of designing a drug personalized to you after reviewing your DNA and knowing everything that it knows will start approaching zero. — Mark Cuban
> `42:30` The information may want to be free, but the person who owns the IP feels differently. — Mark Cuban
> `57:00` Don't be shy about using AI and things that feel really uncomfortable and weird, because that uncomfortableness is probably the path to something that is groundbreaking and game changing. — Mark Cuban
## Mentioned
Mark Cuban, Julie Yoo, Erik Torenberg, Alex Oshmyansky, Cost Plus Drugs, UnitedHealth, Blue Cross Blue Shield, Cigna, Aetna, CVS, OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok, Gemini, Epic, Amazon, OpenEvidence, 23andMe, FDA
## Video description
Mark Cuban thinks AI could transform healthcare, but it won’t fix opaque prices and broken incentives on its own. His starting point for employers: run every benefits contract through AI and ask where you’re getting ripped off.
Mark joins a16z General Partner Julie Yoo and Erik Torenberg to discuss what he’s learned building Cost Plus Drugs, why trust is its core product, and how greater transparency could put pressure on healthcare costs.
They also explore where AI can help, what personalized medicine could look like, how the role of doctors may change, and why Mark believes founders should use AI to learn, not as an excuse to stop thinking.
[Source](https://mgln.ai/e/1344/afp-848985-injected.calisto.simplecastaudio.com/3f86df7b-51c6-4101-88a2-550dba782de8/episodes/1046e742-22c8-45f7-a3c2-e8b93f091783/audio/128/default.mp3?aid=rss_feed&awCollectionId=3f86df7b-51c6-4101-88a2-550dba782de8&awEpisodeId=1046e742-22c8-45f7-a3c2-e8b93f091783&feed=JGE3yC0V)
Source quotes
[26:30] Mark Cuban: AI doesn't replace jobs. People who know how to use AI replace the jobs of people who don't know how to use AI.
[0:00] Mark Cuban: Take every single contract that you have to sign, run it through AI, and ask where you're getting screwed.
[26:30] Mark Cuban: AI is not smart. It's book smart, maybe, but it's not street smart. It's not entrepreneur smart. You've got to have somebody there who guides it and helps it.
[35:48] Mark Cuban: The cost of designing a drug personalized to you after reviewing your DNA and knowing everything that it knows will start approaching zero.
[42:30] Mark Cuban: The information may want to be free, but the person who owns the IP feels differently.
[57:00] Mark Cuban: Don't be shy about using AI and things that feel really uncomfortable and weird, because that uncomfortableness is probably the path to something that is groundbreaking and game changing.
Source quotes
[0:00] Mark Cuban: Take every single contract you sign, run it through AI, and ask where you're getting screwed.
[27:30] Mark Cuban: AI is not smart. It's book smart, maybe, but it's not street smart. It's not entrepreneur smart.
[40:00] Mark Cuban: The information may want to be free, but the person who owns the IP feels differently.
Original transcript
[0:00] We are not in an efficient healthcare market. The economics are broken. One of the many ills of healthcare is that it completely lacks competitive dynamics. Just merely by the presence of cost plus drugs, you've actually forced change in the incumbents. UnitedHealth, 3,000 plus subsidiaries, $150 billion in intercompany transfers annually. a relationship with a company they already own and you don't know they own them. The ultimate mission is to disrupt healthcare so that it's affordable again. Is there like some area where you're like, why is no one building here? There's no better time to be an entrepreneur than right now. The biggest challenge and where AI, I think, is going to have the biggest impact is... Mark Cuban has a simple piece of advice for employers trying to lower their healthcare costs. Take sign, run it through AI, and ask where you're getting screwed. In this episode, Julie Yu and I sit down with Mark to talk about what he's learned trying to disrupt one of the most opaque industries in America. We start with Cost Plus Drugs, which has grown from 111 medications at launch to roughly 4,000 SKUs today. Mark explains why he sees trust as the company's core product, how it's expanding into direct hospital contracts and drug manufacturing, and why transparency can We also get into AI. Mark argues that it can expose bad contracts and help consumers navigate a system that was almost impossible to understand before. But he's skeptical that AI alone can fix healthcare when the underlying economics and incentives remain broken. In looking further ahead, we discuss personalized drugs, how the role of doctors could change, and why Mark thinks this is the greatest technological transition he's ever seen. Well, Mark, welcome to the podcast. Thanks so much for joining. Thanks for having me on, guys. Julie, what has struck you about Mark's contributions into space? What have you always found fascinating about what Mark's been up to with Cosmos Drug and just in general and why we invite him onto the show? I mean, Mark, first of all, just had the courage to enter into the morass that is healthcare in a way that made such a splash and that many, many people who also are in the privileged position that Mark is in to just have such a huge audience have been intimidated to do over many, many decades. all that kind of stuff. And what's been fascinating to watch is just merely by the presence of cost plus drugs as one example, and we'll talk about others that you've done too, but just merely by the presence of that entity and what you represent and what you're doing, you've actually forced change in the incumbents that otherwise, even with policy, even with like all sorts of other forces, never changed over the course of many, many decades. So that's one of the things that I think. Yeah, because I don't get to see that stuff because I don't talk to those guys. And then I think to your point, even absent a contract, I think people are recognizing from the demand side of the market that they need to show that there is some pathway for people to get your product. Right. And so perhaps even in the absence of a direct contract, I do hear people talking about your solution as part of that. our API. And big companies that have half a brain are pulling that data on a daily basis. And they're saying, you have to beat this price. And so I can see that. But I've had at least one company and probably more that have said, oh, yeah, one of the big three has told us that you're part of their network and we get your prices where you're cheaper. And we don't have an agreement at all with any of the big three. Mark, let's zoom out and take stock about where you're at with the business. You launched in 2022 with a few dozen drugs. In April this year, you said you were up to roughly 4,000. You're getting into manufacturing, hospital contracts, potentially AI-based care. Why don't you take stock a little bit of where the business is? Our volumes there led the manufacturers to expand their portfolio with us, and we were able to add additional manufacturers. So now, as you said, we have 4,000 SKUs, give or take, and our business every week is up and to the right. So our biggest challenge is just keeping up with it. So that's segment number one. Then the obvious response to mail order is, well, I would need to pick things up today. And so we created what's called the teamcubancard.com, I did not name it, and it's the
[5:00] basically a discount card that allows you to go to any of the 17,000 pharmacies that have affiliated with us and pick up most of our drugs locally. Because we pay, I'm a big believer in supporting independent pharmacy, so we pay our affiliate pharmacies $12 fill fee, which means that's going to make us more expensive for the lowest cost trucks. Because if you have a $5 stat plus $12, you're going to get it cheaper somewhere else. But at the same side, if you really want to You can pick up the cheap drugs, but on the more expensive drugs, the specialty generics, the biosimilars were actually much cheaper. And for things like biosimilars and insulin and things that have cold shipping, it's actually cheaper to buy it and pick it up locally through our team Cuban carb. So that's the second stool in what we offer. Third is cost plus marketplace. Before I get to Cosmos Marketplace, let me go back to our Dallas manufacturing. So a big part of my co-founder, Dr. Alex Osmiansky, his original cold email to me was he wanted to manufacture drugs that were generic drugs that are on the FDA short supply list. football field or more into 5,000 square feet and, you know, Not only that, but we were able to turn drugs every four hours. So we can make a six-month supply, turn the line, and then go to the next drug and continue doing it. We sell those products to hospitals and clinics. An extension of that, because we started working on that five years ago, we've been able to take those same robotics and AI and shrink it into a – a manufacturing plant, if you will, the size of a tractor trailer. And we call those pods. And those pods can be used for anything and shipped anywhere. The government was our first customer. We've shipped the first one here recently where we just got an order for a second and they told us there's more behind that. Because if there's an ecological disaster, we can send it to FEMA if FEMA's around. If there is weather disaster, military disaster, God forbid, we can ship them there and configure them to make any specific type of drug. sterile injectables, for multiple pods. It can be daigy chained together so we can scale, or you can have one as being a sterile room and another doing the tableted work for generics. And I'm not the expert on all this. Alex can go into this in precise detail. But the thing I'm most proud of, and actually Stat News just wrote a story on this yesterday or the day before, is that we can take these pods and configure them to do N-of-1 therapies so that we can ship the costs about $20 million, ship it to a research hospital. And if they specialize in any types of therapies for those people that are in the N of one category, they can make it and iterate very quickly there. And then now we're doing these ASO drugs. And don't ask me what ASO stands for, because I can't pronounce it, out of our first manufacturing facility in Dallas. So that's part two. From that manufacturing, we created Cost Plus Marketplace. And Cost Plus Marketplace takes providers or other manufacturers, and we sell them at a cost plus 10 or cost plus 12 to clinics, hospitals, providers, whoever want to buy them at the cheapest price. And we literally can save hospitals millions of dollars a year. But our biggest challenge there is we convince the CEOs, but we can't always convince the purchasing people to do it. And then finally, we're going Because of my own experiences as a self-assured employer and going around and talking to hospital CEOs and CFOs and learning the relationship with the big carriers, the big vertically integrated carriers and all the things they like and dislike, mostly dislike. to collect the deductibles before they can offer their care or before they can get access to the insurance money. Knowing all these things, I'd like to work out a direct contract, but I want Two things, I'm gonna tell you what I'm gonna give you in exchange for those two things. One, I'm gonna trust the doctor. Unless it's something crazy, trust the doctor. So you're not going to need a pre-off. There aren't going to be denials. Now we had somebody who had Munchausen's disease that required a denial. But other than that, if it's something crazy, I'm going to pay the price that we contract for on time. I'm going to take responsibility for the patient out of pocket. Either I'll pay it or I'll take the credit risk for the patient itself. So you're not a subprime lender. And in exchange for all that, I want two things. I want a better price because your associated administration and overhead and doctor time is much less. Your yield is going to be higher. And I want the ability to take the contract we signed, this direct contract between us and publicize it.
[10:00] publish it on costpluswellness.com so it can act as an open source for all of these contracts so that any employer can use them and any provider can post their contract. And even if you don't want to post or use, you can use them as templates in your own negotiations. Well, I love the last piece, Mark, because I think that was the genesis of our thread back and forth when I published a piece a few weeks ago on what I'm calling like the great replacement cycle of health plans. And for I mean, for so long. So, you know, employer sponsored health benefits is the largest class of insurance in our country, if you think about it that way. So, you know, roughly about I think 155 million Americans are covered by an employer sponsored benefit or more. Yeah, more. But in any case, it's more than half the country, 60 percent of the country. you know, monopolized by the Bukas, like these national carriers. And it's been an unaddressable market from a startup perspective, right? Like the relationships were super entrenched. You needed these national networks to, you know, be able to play in the game. And so the starting cost to sort of enter the arena was too high for startups to get into and the relationships were just too entrenched. Now, we're The premium increases are just freaking ridiculous, right? Like this year we're seeing even amongst our startups, some Bukas are forcing like 60% year over year increases in premiums. And it's just – It's even worse than you think, Julie, you know, not to step in. Yeah. Because they're vertically integrated. So UnitedHealth. 3,000 plus subsidiaries, $150 billion in intercompany transfers annually. That would make them number 14 in GDP in the United States among states. And so that tells you how big they are. And CVS Signal are not far behind. And so there's often times when they will increase premiums, increase deductibles, increase out-of-pocket costs, own and you don't know they own them. And you talk about employer-based insurance, particularly those who self-insure, 60% of people who get their healthcare from companies get it from self-insured employers. And those employers need someone to process all the medical claims. Put aside pharmacy, the medical claims, those things are called third-party administrators. And if they're owned by the big BUCAs, they're called ASOs, administrative services only. And those Well, on the medical side, it's a million times worse because people, It's also a bigger target market. Was that? It's also the bigger chunk of the market relative to performance. Yeah, of course. Yeah, the medical side is much bigger. You know, 10% and growing versus the other 90%. And what they do is... The plans and the hospitals have their own contracts. And the hospitals, unless they're market dominant, have the, hate the BUCAs and those contracts. But more importantly, whatever that relationship is, the self-insured employer, has no idea what the terms of that relationship is, right? Even though it's possible you can go on the hospital and look up the TIC file, you know, the transparency files for that relationship and that plan, they're not always correct. They're not always right. But what ends up happening is the price that the employer pays, the self-insured employer pays, rarely matches the amount that was charged or the amount that was paid to the hospital. So there's a spread pricing there. those ASOs that are owned by the BUCAs make it impossible to reconcile the numbers so that you can see if you're paying more or less. And they do things, you know, there's these things called 835 and 837 files, which is the data that's sent to the hospital and the amount of money that's paid in response to those claims. And the employers have no access to it. And in many cases, they don't even have access to their own claims. It is just so rigged to your point, Julie, trying to, you know, remove them, disintermediate them is the key, the holy grail to what's happening in healthcare right now. Yeah. And we're I mean, we're super excited to see just an influx of startups that are now able to go after this market. A big reason why, in addition to all these market forces and again, like the economics just getting to a breaking point, is the fact that AI can play a significant role in enabling a full stack like health plan offering to be built in a way that reduces all the craft that you're describing in a very short period of time. But this all comes down to who takes the risk. Well, AI, I'm a huge AI fan. Live it, love it. I think it's important on the clinical side. I think it's important on the operational side. I think it's most important short-term on the contractual side. But the reality is in a broken financial system, even when you introduce AI into the economics and the operations and the processes, when it's already broken, you can't fix it. Because you brought the point right at the beginning, Julian, you're 100%.
[15:00] right. We are not in an efficient healthcare market. The economics are broken. And we, You see that. Because if you don't have price discovery, that's one thing that protects you, that keeps you from having an efficient market. But what's even worse, and here's where the market, the economics really start to fall apart, and what makes it tough for AI in the short term, operationally and less so clinically. The contracts are so big. And so long, the BUCAs through their ASOs get to be contractual terrorists. And what I mean by contractual terrorism, the city of Dallas on their PBM contract, I haven't been able to see their ASO contract yet, 1,335 pages. Mm-hmm. There's no group of humans with enough coffee on the planet to be able to catch everything they try to squeeze by. And so as a result, no matter what AI, once you sign a contract, now hopefully you use AI to prevent yourself from signing a bad contract, and I think that's the low-hanging fruit for everybody. But once you sign that contract with terms you don't fully understand and conditions you can't even protect yourself against, they win. There's no AI in the planet that can protect you. And when you try to compete with them on plans, right, that sounds good. And I'm all for it, right, what Sidecar is doing and so many others are doing is really smart. But they're having problems because... Yes, the wraparound networks are needed, and yes, putting together a network is hard, but Those Bucas have so many subsidiaries. they fuck with you somewhere and you don't even realize it. And that's the ultimate challenge. And that's why I'm so big on the breakup big medicine bill and going after these companies, because I want this to be an open market for every entrepreneur, you know, to use AI in every way possible. And so you went exactly where I was going to go, Mark, which is one of the areas where AI is playing a role, for better or for worse, is that it is just shining a light on how broken the underlying system that Hume has designed is, right? So the whole prior-off bot war situation that's happening right now between pairs and providers is one of, you know, people blame the AI, but it's actually, no, it's like AI is just implementing the existing fee-for-service billing system to the full extent and showing us how broken that system is. So I'm curious what your take is on what's the end state of that? methodology, it sounds like, is able to reduce a lot of the information asymmetry and contract clarity and things of that sort. Is that what it's going to take? The bot wars in terms of claims and upcoding and downcoding, that's short-term stuff, right? That's just like, okay, I need to lose some weight. I'm not going to eat my rice, I'm not going to eat my frosted flakes every day, short-term play, but it doesn't really change everything because AI is a great equalizer. Your AI, my AI, your open AI, my anthropic, whatever it is, we're going to battle each other out and you might win a couple of innings, I'll win a couple of innings, but they're going to net out at some level. So I don't see dramatic change in the long term. Maybe if you're first in, you can pick up some things and you see some lawsuits and you see some challenges when one side has it and the other side doesn't. good. And the Bucas have an have its Big problem, in my opinion, because they grew through acquisitions. We mentioned these 3,000 subsidiaries. That's a lot of siloed data. And even though you can try to find ways to get access to claims and specific things that allow you to upcode and they're doing that, it's going to be hard for them to become AI native companies on the Buka side. And I think over the long term, they're going to be challenged. But all of this starts, and I can't say this enough, all of this starts before those employers sign their contracts. If every one of your portfolio companies... Said, you know what? I'm going to run my existing benefits contract. If I have a broker, if I have a consultant, if I have TPA, if I have a PBM contract, I'm running my existing contract through AI and I'm asking, I'm using a prompt that asks a single question. Where are they fucking me over and what should I do about it? And within 30 seconds, you're going to see bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. And the things I've seen running through contracts, because let me just tell you how much I love AI agents. So I use them all. I use GrockBot. Eric and I are NBA fans. And so I got the Luka Doncic's plan because it's $77.69 or something. I'm like, this is brilliant. GrockBot, $77, the Luka plan. I got you. And then I have the Gemini plan. And then I have OpenAI's plan, et cetera, et cetera. to
[20:00] Dot, and I use the agents and I say, you go out and find me every state, entity, organization, enterprise that has an open records opportunity. And I want you to find me every single contract, RFP, whatever it is you can find from those entities. And I want you to write the letter to request it, put it in an email, put it in my draft, let me personalize it some, tell me when it's there, and I'll hit send. And it's amazing, right? Stuff that's always been at the bottom of the list that I always wanted to get to but never could. Now it's just like this stuff is coming. And so I put it up on Google Drive and each of the different LLMs has access to it. And I just tell them all every time there's a new something new loads on the drive. You go through. You tell me you give me the good news. You give me the bad news. You give me what should be done. And then you give me the simple version so I can send to the company or school or whatever it is. And bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. And that's where I get to see all these contracts that the big three on the PBM side and the BUCAs on the ASO side are signing. And so I get to see specifically how all these enterprises are getting ripped off. These school districts? Oh, my God. Cities from Denver to Dallas to Fort Worth. Unions. I mean, I'm not. And if you think about it, again, going back to your perfect point, Julie, is if That 67% of the employer's, representing 67%, the 160 million plus Americans actually did one thing. One thing, ran their contracts together. through AI before they signed them and negotiated from that, The entire system for the big BUCAs and big PBMs and all their subsidiaries would collapse. The cost of health care in this country would drop like a rock. And so when I go and I talk to employers, when I go talk to investors and talk about their portfolio companies, and they're like, do we need legislation? Do we need this, that? I'm like, no, you need to be smart and do your job and bring in somebody that I call job is to manage the contracts and everything associated with it. And you will find that your healthcare costs will go down. And then once we get you there, then we can talk about carving out for direct contracts and doing all these other things. And immediately, there's a couple... public companies that I told to do this and came back to me and were like, oh my God, we had no idea how badly we were ripped off. And I'm begging them to mention it on their quarterly earnings conference calls and they won't do it because they still have to do business with those Bukas, even though if they left them for whatever reason. And so if we just do that one thing Run the contract suit. Literally, if you have more than 1500 employees, the quickest way for or members, I should say, the quickest way for that startup, that tech company, maybe depending on how bad you ripped off into the millions or more, is to just do what I just said. Run your contracts through AI. Yeah. Margaret, maybe zooming out, can you share more about sort of the grand vision for the business a few years out and maybe how you think about sequencing to get there? So a couple of things. One, I mean, the ultimate mission is to disrupt health care so that it's affordable again. And I'm a fan of universal health care, but you can't get to universal health care until you have correct data. And people can make decisions based off of real data. So that's a bigger system. Whatever... direction it ends up going. I just want to disrupt healthcare so that when people think about the economics, it becomes, okay, I know exactly what's going on. How we get there, more education than anything else, like I mentioned before. In terms of the business of cost plus drugs, look, somebody could come along for the retail site and say, we're gonna do cost plus 1%. Okay. Trust is still our primary product. That's what I try. We don't spend any money on marketing or advertising. And when we first got started, all the people who came from pharmacy said, oh, you're going to get killed. I'm like, no. People are going to tell others how much money they save. And then they're going to trust us. And that's the one thing missing in all of healthcare economics, trust. And so once we gain their trust by doing exactly what we said, by being fully transparent, only having a set markup of 15%, we'll garner people trust. So that'll protect us elite to some level. told you about that sell for $20 million. There's good margin in those. And we think we can sell... Within two years, a couple hundred a year. Within five years, a couple thousand a year. So you give me, you know, a thousand pods to sell at $20 million each. We're going to be doing really, really, really good. And it'll completely change health care because we can daisy chain those things like literally
[25:00] We could manufacture tableted generic drugs in Dallas, Texas, using these and make them for less than we pay India, the manufacturers we partner with in India. Now, we don't go for the cheapest price. We go for the best manufacturer. So we pay a little bit more. But still, we can make it for less. The only thing holding us back is that for each generic, we have to apply for something called ANDA, another new drug application. and each one of those things costs $365,000 plus other fees. So you want to do 1,000 of them, that's $365 million plus all the cost of the pods. We're trying to say, look, if we truly want to bring manufacturing and onshore it for medications, we're here for it and we can do it. You're already working with us in other areas. And so we think we'll get there as a big part of what we'll do. And we've already planned so that on costplusdrugs.com, We'll put a little American flag when something is manufactured by us here in the U.S., but that's probably two years away just because of all the work we have to do with the FDA. But that's the big picture. If we selling billion worth of pods a year watch out Elon And so is your view that as we look out in the next few years no matter how good the technology gets it not going to sort of disrupt sort of health care on its own and that there needs to be other more structural changes that need to happen Yeah, there's regulatory capture and there's scale capture. Right now on the economic side, it's all scale capture. And when you listen to the Cordial Islands conference calls or read the transcripts for all those big vertically integrated companies, they talk about technology. But the one thing they never say is this is going to translate into lower costs for employers and patients. They always say this is going to improve our earnings. You know, we're going to return more to shareholders. We're going to buy back stock. But until I'm able to educate all these employers, right, they're going to keep on making it nearly impossible, which is why, you know, when Julie talked about earlier about CVS, why I mentioned we don't deal with any of them directly. Because we have to work outside of them, because otherwise you fall into their trap and they game you with their contracts. Mark what do you in all this you know you talking a lot about structural things but there is a reality of what you described earlier like AI will change the nature of people jobs in this industry quite a bit What do you think is I heard you talk a lot about how do we sort of future our young pools of talent and what is being like sort of career ready look like in this day and age? What do you think that looks like for healthcare? Like what does the workforce of healthcare look like in the next five years? I mean, it looks the same as any other industry. You have to still hire entry-level people because no matter what the model is, the minute it's released, that's it, right? It's behind. It's behind. And so there's latency associated with every model. And so you need people who are aware of everything that's going on that create context and deal with the models, be the human in the loop, understand the consequences, et cetera. And you need those people to grow with the organization over time so that as all these things change, they've seen the history of the implementation and they can bring value to the organization. So that's part one. You can't just get rid of all entry-level positions. Part two, you have to enable those people and everybody else, white collar oriented, how to use AI. Because AI doesn't replace jobs. People who know how to use AI replace the jobs of people who don't know how to use AI. So that's part two. And then part three is the bigger picture stuff The first step to that is trying to educate the C on how AI even works teaching them how agents work teaching them how to use a model teaching them you know the difference between open source and closed models and the different things you have to do, helping them understand the latency of a model that this brilliant conversation the three of us are having is in no model anywhere and won't be until it's published. So if we say something that we can all go out and use, the models are all behind and AI is all behind. So that's a given. And of course, you know, LLMs are texting some pictures and don't deal with, you know, all the, you know, real world things that are going on in video. So you have to be able to understand as a CEO and in the C-suite how all those things impact your company. Once you get a good grasp on that, then you just start fooling around, right? Because there you can just find new ways for things to happen that benefit your customers or create new opportunities. And that's the brilliance of AI, right? AI is not smart. It's book smart, maybe, but it's not street smart. It's not entrepreneur smart. You've got to have somebody there who guides it and helps it. But until you have a C-suite that understands how it works, it's going to be very difficult for that organization. I mean, I literally sat with the head of a consumer.
[30:00] or food companies. And he was talking to me about acquisitions. And this was months ago. And he was like, yeah, because of GLP-1s, yada, yada, yada. And I'm like, okay, well, let's do this. Let's take your number one product, your cookie, right? And I'm going to ask ChatGPT to create a competitor that is more GLP-1 friendly and will be priced lower. And I want a full bill of materials. I want sources, everything, I'm manufacturing, what I have to do. And in about three minutes, we got back to it. And he was like, oh, shit. no idea. Now, if you have no idea, that's a question you can ask an LLM. you have no idea on how to enable your company to use AI. And that, to me, is the greater struggle for most organizations. Now, for entrepreneurs, asking that question and trying to implement, no matter what it is, There's no better time to be an entrepreneur than right now. You know, there will be the trillionaire in the basement. There will be, you know, somebody who puts out their own, um, agent swarm, but does it on a, um, entrepreneurial basis. Now, there's still challenges, particularly for agents. So agents don't see social media posts. They can't review them, right? And it's hard to get transcripts for any material amount of them. They can't, you know, watch ads. or see ads. And so if we're moving to an agent-driven economy for individuals, there's going to have to be a lot of changes that occur in how we communicate commerce to those agents. Like literally, I was fooling around with one of the guys in my company. We created this thing, and you can go check it out. It's not truly active. It's called agentfeeds.devs. And the whole idea is you take the transcript of your posts and you just put it into agentfeeds.dev and then you copy and paste it. Anybody can copy and paste anybody you follow into their agents. Hey, follow all the feeds for this and it takes all the ads and gives you all the information you need so your agent is more up to date on those categories or whatever. You're going to see an explosion of those types of things. But we still have to get through trust and all the things we all know about AI and the issues we all know about AI. But in terms of opportunities going back to health care, The biggest challenge and where AI, I think, is going to have the biggest impact other than clinical is by patients, by consumers, right? And being able to look at the things that you are given on the economic side, the benefits bill, the EOB, the explanation of benefits. And here's where I think um, consumers will get the greatest benefit. So right now there's terror in, I don't know, half the country, right? 40% of people in the country can't afford a $400 emergency bill. And so what I always tell people is before anything happens, go into your favorite AI model and say, get me a list of all the nonprofit hospitals, go to, go to them and ask them what their financial support services are, because all, um, all nonprofit hospitals have to have financial assistance programs. And some of them are really good. And for some people, you're better off, and I don't want to make the decisions for people, but you can ask the questions of the AI to say, whatever my insurance plan premium was going to be, I'm going to put it in a money market fund and let it collect interest because I've already discussed my situation with the local nonprofit hospital. And I know everything there is to know assistance plans are created and the pricing is a reference price to the federal poverty levels in most cases, but it can go up to 600% of federal poverty level, which can be over $100,000 for some families in some states. So, Patients slash consumers slash families understanding what their options are and how to procure those options from particularly nonprofit hospitals is going to be enormous. If I was going to start a company, um, in this space, I would go to every nonprofit hospital and set up a plan for post agents that I enable people to use. Hey, if you're concerned about how you're going to be able to pay for your bills or your family bills and you don't have much money in the bank, whatever, you're making under X number of dollars, copy and paste this into your Muse or into your Dot or into your Cloud Cowork, whatever it is. And It'll act no to come here to us and ask questions. And so when I talk to the heads of hospitals, I'm like, you don't understand. You guys suck at marketing. You are dependent on the Bukas and their plans and being part of their network to feed you patients. That's ridiculous. Right. If you make it easy for people to use your financial assistance programs,
[35:00] Maybe go to a local bank, maybe show people how to use stop loss for smaller, medium-sized companies. So many options for them to use it to make things better for patients, because that's really where the big disconnect is. You can offer better plans. You can use technology to reduce the price and become more efficient in how you create a network. We're negotiating direct contracts, but until the end user truly decides. embraces it and knows how to use it, there's going to be challenges. But all of us at some level, just like we learned to use spreadsheets back in the day when we thought it was too complicated. I'm old enough to remember when people thought spreadsheets were hard, you know, and you had to explain to them and they had to pay $500 for Lotus 1-2-3. But the same thing is happening now as we go through this transition and people, yeah, there's a lot of people who are anti-AI, but there are a lot of people who are anti-calculators, anti-everything. That's just a matter of time. But once you get the way you get them to overcome AI is of their fear of AI is to show them how these are the things that can really benefit you and protect you and reduce the inherent fear that you have in the event that something goes really, really wrong. Yeah. there's this, um, Famous Aaron Schwartz quote from many years ago, you know, information wants to be free. Yeah. And I know in healthcare, in a previous conversation, you've been a bit skeptical that that will happen because, as you mentioned, there's a lot of siloed data and there's a lot of, you know, strategic reasons why that data is siloed. That is their advantage to some degree. And so I say that to ask you, what do you think the ultimate impact of the Frontier Labs, you know, OpenAI and Theropic have very big ambitions in this space. Either them or others will be in reshaping healthcare or sort of, you know. Exactly. I'll tell you exactly. Um, And I'm selling my own book here a little bit. The cost of designing a drug personalized to you after reviewing your DNA and knowing everything that it knows will start approaching zero. as the capabilities of models go up, right? We talk about GPUs and how they'll get faster, the networks behind them, the power required, but it's the algorithms that are going to change everything and make them more efficient, right? And we don't even know what the speed of improvement are going to be on algorithms, but at some point in time, whether it's five years, 10 years, 20 years, they're going to take something from Eric, Julie, and Mark, and they're going to say, starting with over-the-counter, because if you think about it, right, you walk into a drugstore, you get this, Excuse me. whatever, Advil, Tylenol, right, ibuprofen. And we all think it's going to impact us the exact same way. And we have to experiment to see how it impacts our body. The body makes no sense whatsoever. And so as the processing power and the analytic power of these models from the frontier models gets better, they will be able to really truly personalize over-the-counter drugs without a lot of the mishegots you have to go through to try to figure these things out, right? bam, you start to change it. Then you get into making other drugs that are personalized for you. Because again, the fact that we all take Eliquis and decide between Eliquis and Xarelto or Warfarin makes no sense whatsoever in the big scheme of things. And so being able to take those things and personalize that medicine. And what I have told two of the frontier models, I said, if you really want to be smart, you take, your $20 or your $200 subscription, and you include that service once it's available. Because your marginal cost for doing this At that point in time, look, the inference and everything that has to happen just to respond to a request today, expensive like this, right? Coming down very quickly. But the same thing is going to happen for this type of personalized medicine. Initially, it's going to be enormous, but as we understand the human body more and understand all the variables in our body more and our brains more, et cetera, and understand the medications and figure out how to do the N of one for everybody – It will be part of a normal subscription because there's no reason it should be. How expensive is 23andMe? You pay $99 or less now to get your DNA looked at. And so maybe I pay $99 up front. I give them my DNA if I'm willing to do that, obviously for privacy concerns. They store it. They continue to bam, bam, bam, bam, bam, bam. Maybe you want to know what could be wrong. Maybe you don't want to know what could be wrong based off of your DNA. But if something does go wrong, They have access to all these drugs, all these opportunities, and the ability to create them in real time. And selling my book, we want our pods to be right there to be able to manufacture them because we're the only ones capable of doing it. And I don't see that changing for a long time. I think one of the things also, Mark.
[40:00] people probably don't appreciate as much as they should in that context is that as that happens, as what you just described happens, and as drugs become just better products for every individual in the country or in the world, that is actually one of the most disruptive forces for care delivery, right? How much of healthcare is actually the job of the doctor helping patients figure out why a drug doesn't work for them and calibrating and doing metritration and changing behavior to So that's something that I think, you know. But remember, because of that latency I mentioned earlier, you're still going to need doctors. If Mark walks into the hospital and I just tried this new personalized medicine and I just start puking my guts out. Yeah. You can have it on video, right? And you can have a robot there and say, how do you feel, Mark? And the Terminator might walk in and say, your time is up. I don't know. But I'd rather have a human there with all five senses being able to take a look and ask questions and see the crying mom or the crying son or child or whatever, and be able to include that in the context. And so I don't think ever that we'll replace doctors and we shouldn't even try because, and you guys know particularly for this, you still have to know the questions to ask. You still have to know what the variables are that matter versus the ones that don't. You still have to realize that even as processing costs drop towards zero, hopefully at some point in time, that there's still a cost associated with it, even if that cost is only time. And so you need somebody there who's been educated in all those pieces. I think to your point, Julie, where things might change dramatically role of the doctor is how they'll be trained in medical school. They won't be taught the exact same things. They'll have to learn how to use open evidence or whatever else is available out there and how to extract information, even if it's just that DNA information and understanding what's in there and what the model thinks about it and being able to translate that to the person. Because, you know, Effectively, In order for this to work perfectly, Everybody has to have their own model. And that's going to be difficult for everybody, even though there's going to be millions or if not hundreds of millions or billions of models created and supported over the next years. And plus, on top of that, IP becomes a totally different problem that gets introduced into this equation and process because – You know, up till recently, it's been published or perish. And if you're a doctor and you create something, you want everybody to happen. Maybe you can even license it and make some money off of it. But now, you know, if you try to patent something. Every 12-year-old is saying, hey, look at this patent, change it just a little bit and make my own patent, right? Or if it's, you know, a new procedure in healthcare, you know, you might say, no, you have to come to my model and you have to pay me $9,999 every access, right? Or to use inference, you know, you're going to use this software that I require because nobody's going to give away that IP for free. And that creates a lot more problems. Going back to Eric, information wants to be free. The information may want to be free, but the person who owns the IP feels differently. And so that's going to change how we interact with models. And, you know, we can argue about, you know, front ends that choose which model is least expensive to answer the question. But we haven't had the discussion on where we find the IP that's needed to either train that model, post train that model, you know, rag that model, whatever it may be, if that person isn't making it available, but it's absolutely required. Does that make sense to you guys or do you guys think I'm an idiot? You know, I think it's really interesting because it also brings up the point of like, what is the role of the doctor in the future? So number one, I agree that actually I think we're going to need more doctors in the future because as care advice becomes more abundant, more people are going to demand healthcare, actual like real life healthcare services. And so we're going to find we actually need more doctors. And there's something to be said about what you're describing as like the role of the doctor today is very rote, right? It's kind of like these are the tasks. You got to do these quality measures. brain, honestly, for a lot of the things that doctors are asked to do in the traditional healthcare setting. And what you're describing is like, what if like the paradigm moves towards physicians are actually like more physician scientists, right? Like it's actually their job is to take like the bleeding edge of information that we may not know at population scale yet, but on an individual basis, they're at the tip of the sphere of collecting novel data, generating novel insights about how people are reacting. Novel data, by definition. That's a much more emotionally stimulating job description to me. Yes, yes. Because by definition, you're exactly right, right? Novel data. equals personal. Mm-hmm. Exactly. - And with novel data. - We're going to have longitudinal monitoring. The blood pressure is the one that we always talk about is where it's kind of
[45:00] The same principle as what you're saying. The fact that we take our blood pressure like once a year is kind of ridiculous because it changes. Not me. I got this shit right here. You're cutting edge. But soon we're going to have wearables that are just measuring it in real time like every single day. And you'll have a much more precise understanding of how you're responding to different therapeutic interventions and even like diet and exercise and all that kind of stuff. And that's going to create – You bring up a good point, Julie, in terms of novel – information. And that's everybody in terms of finding jobs, right? You're going to need AI translators for people who may not keep up with these things. You know, regular people that are in wherever in this country or in the world who just, you know, Want to live their abundance life, whatever that may be. And you're going to need people who are going to be the translators for what's novel about this circumstance or this individual. And how do you make it valid to AI and the output of the AI valid to the novel, to the individual? That's going to be a job. And it's going to be very difficult to extract everything from an individual that the AI is going to need. And you're going to need to have a person, I think, there to do it. Maybe somebody envisions a humanoid robot that is going to ask you those questions and somebody is going to be comfortable. I don't. I don't think that's going to happen. By the way, Mark, I don't think I've ever heard you talk about another set of entrenched incumbents, which is the EHR companies. What's your theory of the case there on how that market changes or evolves or doesn't in the age of AI and what that looks like in the next few years? Honestly, I don't know. you know, the EHR is dominated by Epic and it's their world, you know, and so I've just kind of, deferred to them and tried to stick where I can have an impact because, We partner with them. We think offering... Pricing, particularly pharmaceutical pricing at the point of script where the doctor is there offering them different options is a good start. Yeah, you guys are part of that new announcement that they just made about the – Yeah, exactly, exactly. With Epic and Amazon, et cetera. So I think that's a big plus, and I think that's needed. But in terms of their actual business and where it's disruptible, I'm not really the one qualified for that. Okay. My problem, by the way, with that announcement was that I love that they announced it. And then they said it's not going to be available until May of next year. And I was like, why? Yeah, I know. How does it take so long? I had nothing to do with that. But that's typical in this industry, right? Yeah. Do you guys think that in 10 years, you know, healthcare is still going to be a fifth or a sixth of whatever it is now of GDP and that there's kind of this just sort of terminal as a sort of terminal state where there's just, you know, way more demand than sort As it gets more efficient, we're still, and as GDP grows, you know, even 5% a year, hopefully at some point, our demand is still going to just cap at, you know, one-fifth of the economy. I do. But the value that we get out of that spend should be... Well, the value you get out of the people will increase because they'll be healthier. So there's a difference when it's sick care, right, as a lot of people refer to, versus when it's keeping people healthy and they're more productive and there's less downtime. And, you know, they're smarter because it's easier to learn, et cetera. So I think we'll get greater productivity that will more than account for it, which we don't get now. Zooming out a bit, Mark, we have a mutual friend who is a very prominent pollster. I won't out of here, but he believes that or he's done some work to indicate that if you ever ran for office, he thinks you could win. sort of policy positions you'd be most excited for? It's really easy. It's the same thing I tell states that I've testified for. One, make all contracts with anybody who takes taxpayer money public. No redactions. Because the minute that happens, you start to have an efficient market and the costs go down. Two, make it so that anybody who can find a better price for less than their current out-of-pocket with their plan, make it apply to the deductible. Allow it to apply to their deductible. Eight states do that at some level already. requirements, right? So that Everybody gets to see it. It's our money. We're the taxpayers, right? For instead of – Current insurance plans the way we have them, 72% of those big carriers' revenue comes from taxpayers. They don't take risk anymore. They off it. Everything's an arbitrage for them.
[50:00] So knowing that, we also have to consider that the one debt We never pay off till the day we die. is our insurance premiums. Think about that. Whether it's Medicare, unless you're on Medicaid, right? You're paying till the day you expire. And you're paying. When you need it, you have to fight for it in the current system and probably foreseeable systems. To me... If we were able to create a program where you just deposited what would be, let's just say, how much you pay for a premium under an ACA silver plan in your state. And we just went and did a deal with the bank and we said, OK, in Texas for a family of five, it's $2,100 at your income. Right. So you just keep on depositing $2,100 in a cruise and you own it. But it has to be deposited if you want to participate in this program. incident, right? You can take that money. If it's not enough, we've worked out a deal with the bank. where two things happen. One, the bank will loan you money up until... point where stop loss kicks in, which means we're going to take part of that money you deposit and use it for stop loss coverage. And two, the federal government or the state is going to guarantee that loan to you so that the provider is not out. And we're still going to deduct it from your payroll so that you pay it back. And if you're lucky and you never have an incident and you get to save all that money when you turn 65 and go on Medicare, you just get all that money Thank you. The federal government Well, you know, cover or guarantee that, Your student loans... They'll guarantee SBA loans. They'll guarantee home loans or give you a down payment, right? Third world country. We'll guarantee all these things, even agricultural things. But the most important thing, you know, covering our healthcare, good luck. You know, you're in a bad accident, good luck to you. And we'll maybe push it off to the hospitals. They have to take you in. So I would create a plan that says you have to deposit this money. The bank will have a guarantee, just like a mortgage or whatever, will loan you this money, and then we'll have federal stop-loss programs above some amount of. 40,000, whatever it may be. Now, all of a sudden, Bye-bye insurance companies. Now, all of a sudden, you're not fighting back because it's your money to spend as you choose. Now, we'll have to set thresholds on where and how you can spend it so you don't just go give it to your cousin, Billy, who said he's going to fix your broken toe, right? But within those constraints, I think now, all of a sudden, we have a better system. So that's what I would do if I was advising. in terms of healthcare. What about, you know, one of your gifts is storytelling and marketing more generally. What about the AI industry in terms of, obviously, AI is uniquely unpopular in the U.S. If you were advising, you know, OpenAI, if you're advising Anthropic on how to sort of change those numbers. And then there's a whole sort of data center sort of saga. I'm curious what your advice would be to the broader AI industry. I've had these conversations, right, with them. And I told them they're idiots, you know. Pretty much everybody in this country thinks right now, social media algorithms. Yeah. Literally, I was having a conversation with a 23-year-old friend that I work with. And we're talking politics. We're discussing who we voted for yesterday and how and why. And I said, well, what about your friends, the other 23, 24-year-olds? And they said – that, Their friends didn't even know, living in Texas, didn't even know who Ken Paxson or James Tallarico were. Rawr. Right. Which is insane in my mind. Right. Insane in this person's mind. But it reinforces the fact that you get more of what you seek via algorithms. And if you really have the best AI, you should be able to not only reverse engineer those algorithms, but put together a marketing program because you sure tell everybody you can do marketing programs through, you know, your bots, your bot or dot or whatever. It applies to politics. It applies to AI. It applies to everything in this country. The divisiveness. We all have our unique AI feed in the social media platforms we use. And those platforms don't give a shit. what it feeds you within some minimal constraints. And so everybody looks at the world differently. The days, particularly for younger people, of thinking, you know, just buy more ads and ruin our football games and our basketball games and everything's fine. You know, maybe older people vote more and that's maybe why. But it's useless when you're trying to change hearts and minds about AI specifically.
[55:00] Even though the irony of it all is that it's the AI behind the algorithms that's ruining everything. But as long as Section 230 is there... We are where we are at. And as long as, you know, unless we take an Australia-type approach or some states-type approach of 16 and under, then what I told them specifically, you need to use your AI to, to segment everything and figure out the best way to put together marketing promotion and however else you want to do it. Do it like the Russians do it. It doesn't matter, right? Because that's what's at stake for you. But people, you know, data center hate is just a proxy for not being able to understand AI. And not all the pieces. And I don't blame people at all. Right. And just like employers have been really dumb with their health care benefits. A lot of communities have been really dumb with the deals they've negotiated for data centers, you know, and they've fallen for the contractual terrorism in a lot of a lot of cases. But, you know, To me... Educating them about social media and educating our legislators and whoever's president about social media, because I don't think they truly understand the impact that we don't all read the same newspaper, the same magazines, look at the same websites, watch the same news shows. We all have our own unique TikTok feed. Your feet is not like mine. Like the best way to find out about your kids is, is to just look at their social media feed. Like my 17 year old son, it's basketball, basketball, basketball. Now I'm starting to see a little bit of politics pop up, but then hot girl, hot girl, hot girl, basketball, basketball, car, car, car. And I'm like, okay, typical 17 year old guy, right? But until the big... Frontier models understand completely that they have to figure out how to become part of everybody's feed. They're going to be putting out all these position papers that are useless. Yeah, no, I mean, Mark, we agree with you that what you said earlier about this is like the best time to be alive and an entrepreneur. And, you know, so many things that, again, were intractable historically are now all of a sudden addressable. Is there an area of the market, and you meet a lot of entrepreneurs and see, you know, sort of people building in all sorts of areas of the world. Is there like some area where you're like, why is no one building here that you think is still a white space opportunity for entrepreneurs? Um, All of them. You know, Seriously, you know, when I go talk to kids, Um, And I always tell them, There's going to be two types of companies, those who are great at AI and those who have gone out of business. And if you take the time to learn it, and then there's two types of people and how they use AI. Those who use AI to learn anything and those who use AI so they don't have to learn anything. And if you're one of those people who uses AI so that you can learn anything and you realize what type of companies and problems aren't being solved by AI, then. Don't be shy to just talk to your AI. You know, and I say this not just to kids, to 50 year old, 60, 70 year old entrepreneurs. The biggest challenge right now with people, entrepreneurs using AI is the comfort level of talking to your AI, whether it's by voice or typing, whatever it is, because there's still a lot of hesitancy. You know, just like back in the day, those first spreadsheets, people still had their 10 key adding machine and they would check it to make sure those spreadsheets were right. You do have to check the output, but you have the opportunity to take the output of Grok and put it into ChatGPT. all these contracts I was telling you about. I start with one and said, "Hey, one of your peers came out and said this about this contract. What do you think?" And spent a couple of hours That's all young entrepreneurs. So when you ask me, is there one thing I truly believe? It's everything. Everything will change. This is the greatest transitional technology we have ever seen. And I've been around for all of them, right? And this blows them all away. The hardest part It's just going for it. And that's where Silicon Valley and, you know, kids from the Bay Area, I think, have a little bit of an advantage because they see their parents and friends and the culture there as a little go, go, go, go, go. But I think the rest of the country and the rest of the world, once they get that confidence level, you're going to start to see businesses we never imagined pop up because we're not seeing that yet. We're not seeing companies where it's like, oh, what is that? Why are they doing that? What is the opportunity there? And then they realized it before we did. It's kind of like Friendster first, like, whoa, what was that? And so I think The biggest thing thing to focus on if you're looking for something is ask anything. I mean, I do it all the time. It's just like, what do you think about this? What do you think about this? What do you think about
[60:00] You know, I've held phones up next to each other and take the output and have them to have a conversation with each other so I can listen in. Don't be shy about using AI and things that feel really uncomfortable and weird, because that uncomfortableness is probably the path to something that is groundbreaking and game changing. Love it. That's a great note to wrap on. Mark, thank you so much for coming to the podcast. It was fun. Thanks, guys. Thanks, Julie. Thanks, Eric. thanks for listening to this episode of the a16z podcast if you like this episode be sure to like comment subscribe leave us a rating or review and share it with your friends and family for more episodes go to youtube apple podcast and spotify follow us on x a16z and subscribe to our sub stack at a16z.substack.com thanks again for listening and i'll see you in the next episode should not be taken as legal business, tax, or investment advice, or be used to evaluate any investment or security, and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any A16Z fund. Please note that A16Z and its affiliates may also maintain investments in the companies discussed in this podcast. For more details, including a link to our investments, please see A16Z.com forward slash disclosures. Thank you.