投资者必须明白，市场波动的双向性是常态——能在短期内剧烈缩水，同样也能在短时间内暴力拉升。节目录制当天就是一个典型例证：公开账户中仅 AMD 一只股票单日就带来了 74,000 美元的涨幅；而作为较小仓位的 SoFi 同样表现强劲，单日浮盈超过 10,000 美元。主持人告诫大家不要把目光锁死在短期的起落上：“And the other thing I really wanted to bring out as a point is if you get a drop like that in your portfolio in a short period of time. Just understand it can work the other way as well.”
随后，主持人概括了本期视频的核心议题：
- 深入剖析 SoFi 炸裂的季度财报，分析当前股价走势是否构成买入良机，并对首席执行官 Anthony Noto 的最新访谈进行拆解。
- 讨论 Cheesecake Factory 刚刚公布的令人震惊的业绩报告，评估在经历前期大涨后该股是否面临套现节点。
- 审视近期跌幅惨烈的 Robinhood，探讨其是否迎来了极具吸引力的估值洼地。
- 对分析师 Mike Wilson 提出的“未来数周市场出清（Clearing Events）将孕育绝佳买点”的论调展开研判与回应。
- 提醒观众留意置顶评论中即将上线的 1000X 优惠项目，该活动为万圣节特惠，亦是 2026 年内最后一轮专属促销。
subgraph LegacyBanks ["传统大行（Chase / BofA / Wells Fargo）"]
A["高净值存量客户：婴儿潮一代 & 部分X世代"] --> B["步入退休阶段，主动收入与资金流入放缓"]
B --> C["未来5-10年进入代际财富转移与传承"]
end
subgraph SoFiGrowth ["金融科技新贵：SoFi"]
D["年轻一代客群：正处于职业黄金期与净资产积累期"] --> E["选择SoFi作为主选金融机构（1,710万会员）"]
C -.->|"承接财富传承溢出"| E
E --> F["多元化产品深度渗透（2,670万产品数）"]
end
```
针对庞大的会员基数，主持人再次向摩根大通（Chase）、美国银行（Bank of America）以及富国银行（Wells Fargo）等传统金融巨头敲响警钟。他指出，传统大行之所以能支撑起数千亿美元的庞大市值，本质上是因为吃到了婴儿潮一代（Baby Boomers）乃至部分 X 世代的时代红利。但如今这一批核心客户正集中步入退休阶段，未来增量资金流入势必放缓；反观 SoFi，牢牢锁定了正在步入职场、积累财富的年轻一代。随着老一辈未来将巨额财富向下传承，扎根于年轻客群的 SoFi 将成为最大的资金承接者。
主持人严正警告老牌金融机构的自满情绪：“The big banks better watch out, man. I'm not kidding. If I was a big bank, I would be a little worried. Because SoFi is coming for money.”
展望未来十年的竞争格局，主持人认为 SoFi 的成长逻辑在数学层面上已经相当清晰。只要首席执行官 Anthony Noto 坚决不使用过度杠杆，且公司能够平稳抵御未来的宏观经济衰退，SoFi 终将晋升为全球最庞大的金融机构之一。从产品矩阵来看，其平台总产品数同比增长 44%，已达到 2,670 万件，意味着单个会员正在高频使用多项交叉服务。
面对如此炸裂的指引，主持人发出由衷惊叹，并重申了他对管理层战略落地能力的绝对信心：“Like if you look out a decade from now, SoFi is going to be one of the biggest financial institutions in the world. Like it's unbelievable what they're accomplishing here, right?”
虽然销售与营销费用同比增长 55%，在模型中被标记为红色，但主持人强调这一支出完全换来了实质成果：“Although it's a red because the number is higher as a percent than total net revenues, I got to say, man, they're winning. They're winning.”
---
[13:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=795s) 专访 Anthony Noto：利率免疫与非借贷业务飞轮
在节目的反应环节，主持人切入 Anthony Noto 接受媒体采访的现场画面。记者询问 Anthony Noto，在本季度自身公司的业绩表现中，最令他感到意外或惊喜的是什么。Anthony Noto 直言，进入下半年以来，管理层面临的最大考问其实是在高利率甚至利率进一步上行的环境下，公司能否精准管控利率风险，以及信贷业务的扩张步伐是否会因此受阻。
Anthony Noto 明确指出，过去一个季度的实践给出了彻底肯定的回答：得益于自研技术架构与底层数据处理能力，SoFi 能够近乎实时地将上调后的基准利率转嫁至贷款定价端，从而在保持整体业务扩张的同时完全消化利率上行压力。更重要的是，SoFi 的抗周期能力来自于深度的业务多元化：
- 目前非借贷类产品（Non-lending products）在公司全部产品线中的占比已高达 87%。
- 旗下已孵化出多条年收入突破 1 亿美元大关的独立业务线。
- 平台呈现出高度的结构对称性：35% 的会员增长撬动了 44% 的产品规模增长，进而精准驱动了 44% 的总净收入增长。
Anthony Noto 总结道：“In fact, I feel as confident now of our business performing well in a rising rate environment as I feel it would perform in a declining rate environment. And that's a testament to the technology that we have, the data that we have, and our ability to real-time pass on higher benchmark rates to consumers in higher prices on loans while still driving growth in the rest of our business.” 这一跨周期韧性彻底打消了外界对公司依赖单纯信贷周期的疑虑。
[10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=600s) SoFi’s Long-Term Operating Leverage and the 2030 Vision
During an interview, SoFi CEO Anthony Noto is pressed on how much operating leverage remains in the business after a blowout quarter where revenue grew 44%, adjusted EBITDA surged 70%, and lending maintained robust growth despite macroeconomic headwinds. Noto explains that SoFi still sees substantial room for expansion, anticipating that EBITDA margins can rise over time to as high as 40% or more, while incremental net income margins are targeted at 30%. By retaining a disciplined 30% margin on incremental profit, SoFi can reinvest the remaining 70 cents of every incremental dollar directly into future growth engines.
Looking forward, Noto outlines an ambitious roadmap toward 2030, targeting an increase in total products to 100 million—a steep climb from the current base of 27 million. Noto acknowledges the scale of the challenge: “It's a very aspirational goal. It's not easy to get to, but it's definitely achievable.” He points out that driving a 4x increase in products makes a corresponding 4x increase in earnings from the 2026 baseline of $0.61 easily conceivable. Underpinning this expansion is a diverse business architecture: SoFi plans to scale eight separate business units generating over $100 million in revenue into multi-billion-dollar drivers, aiming for five businesses above $500 million and another tier of units each topping $100 million.
- **Margin Trajectory**: EBITDA margins targeted to scale upward toward 40%+; incremental net income margin targeted at 30%, freeing 70% of incremental gains for reinvestment.
- **Product Growth Target**: Expanding from 27 million products up to 100 million by 2030 (a roughly 4x expansion).
- **Earnings Multiplier**: A 4x surge in product adoption is projected to drive earnings significantly higher from the 61-cent baseline established in 2026.
- **Revenue Diversification**: Multi-tiered portfolio of business lines designed to exceed $100M, $500M, and multi-billion-dollar thresholds individually.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: SoFi 2030 Growth Engine
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating how incremental revenue feeds margins, reinvestment, and product scaling to reach 2030 earnings targets.
subgraph Margins ["Capital Allocation"]
Rev["Incremental Revenue"] --> M30["30% Incremental Net Margin"]
Rev --> R70["70% Reinvested into Growth Drivers"]
end
subgraph Scale ["Product & Earnings Expansion"]
R70 --> PBase["Current: 27M Products"]
PBase -->|"4x Expansion Target"| PTarget["2030 Goal: 100M Products"]
PTarget --> ETgt["4x Earnings Growth vs 2026 ($0.61 Base)"]
end
[12:35](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=755s) AI Agents, Consumer Trust, and Bank Charter Advantage
When asked about the future of autonomous artificial intelligence agents managing personal finances, moving funds, and shopping for rates on behalf of consumers, Noto expresses strong confidence that SoFi is uniquely positioned to win. In a future dominated by AI agents comparing financial products, transparency will peak, making superior unit economics the decisive battleground. Because SoFi offers an extensive breadth of products with higher lifetime customer value (LTV), it can consistently sustain more competitive lending rates and higher yields on checking and savings accounts than competitors. In that automated environment, Noto argues, SoFi will naturally stand out on the digital shelf.
Addressing whether AI agents will take over execution tasks such as payments and recurring investments, Noto notes that automated machine execution is already commonplace today via bill pay and recurring investment tools using linear intelligence. Transitioning from linear rules to agentic intelligence ultimately hinges on consumer psychology and trust. “I think a brand like SoFi, who's a trusted brand, provides FDIC insurance as a national bank and a Fed bank holding company, has a better chance of building that trust and reliability with consumers than any other technology company or financial service.”
- **LTV Competitive Advantage**: A wide product ecosystem creates superior lifetime customer value, allowing SoFi to outprice peers on deposit yields and loan rates.
- **AI Agent Transparency**: Heightened comparison automation by AI shopping agents benefits low-cost, high-yield digital platforms.
- **Regulatory Standing as Moat**: Holding a national bank charter, Fed bank holding company status, and FDIC insurance provides regulatory trust that pure tech startups and non-bank fintechs cannot match.
[14:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=855s) Asset-Light Economics vs. Legacy Banks, and the Robinhood Contrast
Analyzing SoFi's investment thesis following its post-earnings rally to roughly $16, the speaker asserts that the stock remains an exceptional bargain, still sitting roughly 50% below its all-time highs. The fundamental edge SoFi maintains over legacy players like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo lies in its completely asset-light operational structure. Traditional financial giants remain burdened by massive legacy overhead—operating physical retail branches on every corner and maintaining sprawling ATM networks. While physical branches and drive-through teller windows were vital for baby boomers depositing paper checks, younger demographics conduct their financial lives entirely on digital screens.
This structural absence of brick-and-mortar real estate allows SoFi to harvest fat operational margins and channel those cost savings directly into aggressive sales and marketing to acquire market share. The speaker also draws a clear distinction between SoFi and Robinhood: while both are fintech winners, Robinhood specializes primarily in active trading, prediction markets, and retail investing, whereas SoFi functions as a comprehensive everyday primary bank focused on checking, high-yield savings, mortgages, and personal loans. Summing up his conviction on SoFi's valuation, the speaker declares: “Is SoFi still a great buy even after being up huge today? And the answer in my opinion is without a question. Yes.”
- **Valuation Discount**: Trading around $16, the stock remains roughly 50% off all-time highs despite record-breaking operational metrics.
- **Generational Shift**: Baby boomer branch habits (in-person deposits, drive-through tellers) are obsolete among younger consumers who prefer all-digital banking.
- **SoFi vs. Robinhood Positioning**: Robinhood targets retail trading and speculative prediction markets, while SoFi is engineered as a primary banking institution offering lending, checking, and comprehensive balance-sheet products.
[16:45](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=1005s) Cheesecake Factory’s Blowout Q3: Comps, Expansion, and Margin Expansion
Shifting focus to casual dining, the speaker details an extraordinary earnings report from The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), expressing utter disbelief at the top-line numbers. Comparable restaurant sales surged an eye-popping 15.2% year-over-year, far outperforming the broader casual dining sector. Highlighting comments from CEO David Overton, the speaker underscores how operational discipline, elevated food and hospitality quality, rewards program adoption, and social media engagement combined to drive market share gains among younger patrons while expanding labor productivity and food efficiencies.
Beyond existing store sales, the company's development pipeline is accelerating. In the third quarter alone, the company opened six new locations—including two flagship Cheesecake Factories, one North Italia, one Flower Child, and two other Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC) venues. Management reaffirmed plans to open up to 26 new units in fiscal 2026, comprising up to five Cheesecake Factories, eight North Italias, seven Flower Childs, and six FRC locations. On the balance sheet, CAKE boasts $585 million in total liquidity ($249 million in cash plus $336 million available on its revolver), offset by $575 million in 2% convertible senior notes due 2030, alongside ongoing share buybacks. The financial quality of the quarter was across-the-board stellar: total costs and expenses dropped from 95.9% of revenue down to 92.8%, with food, labor, G&A, and depreciation all dropping as a percentage of revenue, leaving pre-opening expenses as the only elevated line item due to aggressive new unit openings. Summarizing his take on the print, the speaker emphasizes: “It was an A-plus report. Revenue's up 14%. Food and beverage costs fell as a percent. Labor expense fell as a percent.”
- **Comparable Store Sales**: Surged 15.2% year-over-year, significantly outpacing peers in casual dining.
- **Total Revenue Growth**: Rose 14% year-over-year.
- **Operating Leverage**: Total costs and operating expenses declined from 95.9% of revenue down to 92.8%.
- **Development Pipeline**: 6 new units opened in Q3; on track for up to 26 openings in fiscal 2026 across Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and FRC.
- **Liquidity Profile**: $585 million in total available liquidity ($249M cash + $336M undrawn revolver) against $575M in 2% convertible debt due 2030.
[20:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=1200s) The Cheesecake Factory's Explosive Earnings and the Flower Child Expansion Dilemma
The Cheesecake Factory turned in an operational report that completely shattered expectations, proving that casual dining can still produce monster numbers. Income from operations hit 7.2% of revenue, surging 101% year-over-year. Net income soared 92%, while diluted earnings per share expanded by 80% year-over-year. The speaker was visibly ecstatic about the operational leverage being demonstrated by a traditional sit-down dining business, declaring: “This is a restaurant. Ladies and gentlemen, we got a banger on our hands.”
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: The Cheesecake Factory Growth Engine
accDescr: Visual flow showing Cheesecake Factory store-level growth feeding into long-term company expansion.
subgraph Drivers["Operational Drivers"]
FC["Flower Child: +11% Comps"]
NI["North Italia & FRC Concepts"]
CAKE["Core Cheesecake Locations"]
end
subgraph Runway["10-Year Runway"]
Cur["Current: 47 Locations"] --> Target["Target: 700 Locations"]
end
Drivers --> Runway
```
The absolute standout metric in the entire release was Flower Child’s comparable store sales, which surged 11% year-over-year. Although slightly below the previous quarter's 13% print, it continues to dramatically outpace virtually every competing fast-casual concept in the United States. However, this outstanding performance underscored the speaker's single major grievance with management: they are simply expanding the concept too slowly. Currently, Cheesecake Factory operates only 47 Flower Child locations, against a stated domestic target of roughly 700 locations over time. Opening only about seven units a year will not suffice when margins and comps are running this hot. The speaker argued that management needs to find a way to maintain their obsessive culinary quality while scaling up to 30 or more units next year, 50 in 2028, and 100 in 2029 to fully monetize this multi-year head start.
- **Operating margin:** Income from operations came in at 7.2%, an increase of 101% year-over-year.
- **Bottom-line performance:** Net income climbed 92% year-over-year; diluted EPS grew 80% year-over-year.
- **Flower Child comparable sales:** Rose 11% year-over-year, following a 13% gain in the previous quarter.
- **Store count trajectory:** Flower Child currently has 47 domestic locations open against a stated long-term domestic goal of 700.
[22:30](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=1350s) Valuation, Price Targets, and Portfolio Sizing for Cheesecake Factory
Evaluating whether Cheesecake Factory remains a viable buy after these results, the speaker was unequivocal about its upside trajectory, setting a bold price target and stating: “This stock's going 200. It's not going to 200 tomorrow. But it's going to 200.” The position holds substantial weight across the speaker’s personal finances, representing roughly 7% of his public portfolio and ranking as a top-five position across his private accounts. While not matching his massive allocation to AMD, his conviction remains unshaken. He emphasized having zero interest in trimming or selling shares, noting that when an investor is already bullish on a business and its real-world execution dramatically beats expectations, the only logical move is to accumulate more shares.
The core of the thesis rests on valuation dislocation paired with a decade-long growth runway. Wall Street models previously pegged Cheesecake Factory’s forward price-to-earnings multiple at roughly 23x. However, because earnings and profitability are coming in substantially higher than consensus models anticipated, the true forward P/E may effectively sit closer to 20x. For an enterprise generating double-digit revenue gains with two nationally scalable growth concepts—Flower Child and North Italia, alongside Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC) and traditional Cheesecake Factory flagships—a 20x multiple represents remarkable value. The speaker contended that fair value tomorrow should easily sit at $120 to $125 or higher, regardless of whether immediate post-earnings market turbulence pins the price around $102.
- **Portfolio weighting:** Accounts for 7% of the speaker's public account and ranks as a top-five position overall.
- **Valuation multiple:** Forward P/E was modeled at 23x but may compress to approximately 20x due to outsized net income beats.
- **Target pricing:** Speaker believes the stock fundamentally deserves to trade at $120 to $125+ immediately, with a long-term target of $200.
- **Growth pillars:** Supported by a 10-year runway across Flower Child, North Italia, and broader Fox Restaurant Concepts.
[25:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=1500s) Robinhood Q3 Earnings: Dissecting the “D+ Report” and the SoFi Comparison
The analysis shifted to Robinhood (HOOD), which presented a sharply mixed set of financial results that the speaker characterized as a "D+ report." On the positive side, transaction-based revenue grew 19% year-over-year, and "other revenue"—likely driven by new prediction market features—jumped 61%. However, net interest revenue contracted by 9%, capping total net revenue growth at 12%. The major trouble arose on the expense side of the ledger, where operating costs expanded by 16%, significantly outpacing top-line growth. Brokerage and transaction costs jumped 21%, operations costs leaped 139%, and provisions for credit losses surged by 173%.
| Metric / Line Item | Robinhood Reported Performance | Context / Comparison |
|:--- |:--- |:--- |
| **Total Net Revenue** | +12% YoY | Lagged behind total operating expenses |
| **Transaction Revenue** | +19% YoY | Solid expansion across brokerage activity |
| **Net Interest Revenue** | -9% YoY | Disappointing headwind |
| **Other Revenue** | +61% YoY | Boosted by prediction markets |
| **Operating Expenses** | +16% YoY | Driven by +139% operations & +173% credit loss provisions |
| **Marketing Expense** | +2% YoY | Minimal spending growth compared to SoFi's aggressive playbook |
| **Diluted EPS** | Dropped to $0.51 (vs. $0.61 prior) | Hit by a 91% surge in provision for income taxes |
The expense mismatch prompted a direct comparison to SoFi's operating playbook. While Robinhood kept marketing expenditures virtually flat at just 2% growth, SoFi increased marketing spending aggressively and translated it into 44% net revenue expansion. The speaker took a moment to mock retail sentiment from previous years, remarking: “I remember Robin Hood investors, you know, a year or two ago... Robin investors used to talk a lot of trash. ‘Why are you in SoFi? Robinhood's where it's at.’ Look how things change. Look at SoFi's growth rates and then go look at your precious little Robin Hood.” With Robinhood's diluted EPS slipping from $0.61 to $0.51 and net income available to shareholders dropping 16% year-over-year due in part to a 91% spike in tax provisions, Robinhood fell far short of SoFi's operational momentum.
[27:30](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=1650s) Robinhood's Long-Term Turnaround and Platform Metrics on ThousandX
Despite the disappointing quarterly numbers, the broader multi-year trajectory for Robinhood remains one of Wall Street's most dramatic operational turnarounds. Transitioning from the raw financial statements into the thousandxtalks.com software tools, the speaker displayed how the company evolved from severe operating losses just three years ago into sustained operating profitability. That structural pivot explains why the equity rose from its cyclical low of roughly $7 to trade in the $80s—more than a 10x return from the bottom, even after taking an after-hours beating on these earnings.
The balance sheet retains considerable strength, with substantial cash and marketable securities and manageable debt obligations. Shareholder equity continues to climb steadily—a critical metric for any financial institution—while share dilution has been kept tightly controlled over recent quarters. Although the price-to-earnings ratio sits in the 40s and historical price-to-free-cash-flow metrics look somewhat stretched due to recent cash flow softness, capital returns to shareholders have trended upward with minimal drag from capital expenditures or research and development intensity. The speaker wrapped up by demonstrating how to use the software's Dopamine watchlists, three-way company comparison tool, and automated entry-level and hedge-fund level reporting features to dig deeper into ticker HOOD.
- **Stock turnaround:** Rallied more than 10x from its cyclical trough of $7 up to the $80 range.
- **Valuation profile:** Trailing P/E ratio currently sits in the 40s, reflecting high embedded turnaround expectations.
- **Balance sheet quality:** Robust liquidity profile with high cash and marketable securities alongside climbing shareholder equity.
- **ThousandX platform features:** Showcased the Dopamine watchlist, search query engine, side-by-side three-stock comparison module, chart tools, and institutional reporting generators.
[30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=1800s) Robinhood (HOOD) Investment Thesis and 1000X Tool Capabilities
The host showcases the 1000X investment platform, highlighting how users can transition from high-level company summaries to comprehensive, hedge-fund-grade analysis. The software features financial statements, balance sheets, customizable user projection models that can be saved across various tickers over time, and advanced financial modeling tools. In addition, the platform integrates earnings conference call audio streams and dedicated educational modules covering foundational frameworks such as SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats). Addressing whether Robinhood ($HOOD) represents a buy after its recent price action, the host affirms that it is indeed an attractive opportunity for disciplined investors operating with a multi-year horizon: “It's a buy if you have a five-year horizon. Absolutely.”
At the same time, the host urges realistic expectations regarding macroeconomic cycles and broader market volatility. While the market is not currently undergoing a crash, he anticipates that a substantial market downturn or correction is almost inevitable over a two-year timeframe: “I don't know if it's, you know, this year, next year, the year after, but probably in the next two years, we're going to get a major correction or crash in the market in the next 24 months at some point.” When that eventual broader pullback arrives, investors will likely have the opportunity to accumulate Robinhood shares at even lower prices. Nevertheless, because Robinhood maintains an relentless pace of product innovation and long-term operating momentum, patient investors who dollar-cost average into the stock can capture compelling upside.
- **Platform Features**: 1000X provides hedge-fund-level research reports, earnings call listening feeds, historical projections, metrics, and educational guides (e.g., SWOT analysis).
- **Time Horizon**: Robinhood is evaluated as an attractive hold specifically on a 5-year outlook, with regular accumulation recommended.
- **Market Timing Caveat**: Expectation of a major equity correction or crash occurring within the next 24 months, which could create cheaper entry points.
---
[31:55](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=1915s) Mike Wilson on Impending Clearing Events and Liquidity Headwinds
The segment transitions to an interview with Morgan Stanley Chief US Equity Strategist Mike Wilson, who details three upcoming "clearing events" that could establish attractive buying windows as the market positions for an earnings re-acceleration. The first event is the midterm elections. Wilson notes that while midterm periods often spark short-term choppy trading, historical precedent dating back to 1952 indicates that the 6-to-12-month period following midterm elections produces positive, often double-digit equity returns with near 100% historical reliability: “Keep that in the back of your mind. You should be stepping in and adding risk.”
The second major clearing event centers on AI capital expenditures and capital scarcity. Tech companies have navigated this by alternating between equity issuance and debt markets. Wilson observes that the market is currently in the seventh or eighth inning of digesting this massive capital absorption, establishing a clear divergence between well-capitalized leaders and weaker competitors. The third and least appreciated catalyst is the ongoing constraint on liquidity. Pointing out that financial conditions have tightened to levels reminiscent of 2018 (another midterm election year), Wilson argues that the Federal Reserve's balance sheet deceleration and accumulated rate hikes have already performed significant tightening, setting up a dynamic where financial markets will eventually press central banks to reintroduce liquidity before year-end.
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Mike Wilson's Three Market Clearing Events
accDescr: Diagram illustrating the three clearing events identified by Mike Wilson and their progression toward an attractive buying window.
subgraph Events["Clearing Events"]
E1["Midterm Elections<br/>(Historical 6-12 mo double-digit gains)"]
E2["AI CapEx & Capital Scarcity<br/>(7th-8th inning of debt/equity digestion)"]
E3["Liquidity Constraints<br/>(Tightest conditions since 2018)"]
end
subgraph MarketDynamics["Market Reaction"]
MD1["Choppy 'Beneath-the-Surface' Correction"]
MD2["Pressure on Fed / Central Banks to Add Liquidity"]
end
subgraph Resolution["Outcome"]
OUT["High-Probability Buying Opportunity / Next Leg Higher"]
end
Events --> MD1
MD1 --> MD2
MD2 --> OUT
```
- **Post-Midterm Record**: 100% win rate for positive, typically double-digit returns over the 6 to 12 months following midterms since 1952.
- **CapEx Digestion**: AI infrastructure spending is progressing through the 7th or 8th inning of capital digestion via debt and equity markets.
- **Monetary Backdrop**: 25 bps rate hike alongside balance sheet run-off has pushed financial conditions to match the tightest levels seen in 2018.
---
[34:55](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=2095s) The Under-the-Surface Correction and Value in Neglected Equities
Wilson clarifies that he is not forecasting an imminent headline index crash of 15% to 20%, but rather persistent chop following an already severe correction unfolding beneath the index surface since June. Responding to Wilson's thesis, the host emphasizes that while headline indices such as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ) look resilient due to mega-cap weighting, hundreds of individual component stocks have experienced quiet bear markets, dropping 20% to 50% from their yearly highs.
The host argues that investors fixated solely on high-profile, heavily crowded trades are overlooking the most attractive risk-reward profiles in the market. Pointing to overlooked turnarounds like The Cheesecake Factory ($CAKE), the host highlights that substantial capital can be made in unloved, beaten-down equities: “The best buys in my opinion, risk reward for the next 36 months are not the most popular stocks.” These discarded companies, discussed frequently across his channels, offer massive asymmetrical upside over the coming three-year window as sentiment shifts and cash flows recover.
- **Market Divergence**: Heavyweight index leaders disguise 20% to 50% drawdowns across a large swath of individual equities.
- **Strategic Focus**: Superior 36-month risk-to-reward opportunities exist outside of the consensus mega-cap names.
- **Real-World Example**: The Cheesecake Factory cited as an example of a neglected business that quietly resumed generating strong cash flows.
---
[36:50](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=2210s) Federal Reserve Posture, Post-Election Scenarios, and Long-Term Action Plan
Returning to the interview, Wilson is pressed on how markets might compel central banks to add liquidity, whether through stress in credit markets or equity pullbacks. Wilson explains that Morgan Stanley’s proprietary sentiment index has not yet dropped to the extreme fear levels typically triggered by acute financial stress, though individual AI names have already absorbed severe valuation hits on earnings. If the Fed adopts dovish rhetoric or actively accelerates balance sheet expansion, it would validate stepping aggressively into risk assets. Acknowledging client anxieties about potential post-election geopolitical friction involving the Trump administration and Iran, Wilson reiterates that while market weakness lingered late into December during 2018, corrections associated with presidential actions and midterms have historically presented premier buying setups: “What I will tell you is those are always buying opportunities.”
The host echoes Wilson’s conclusion with energetic conviction, underscoring that volatility should never be feared by serious long-term accumulators: “It's always a buying opportunity, baby. It's always a buying opportunity.” Whether the market delivers mild chop, a 5% to 7% pullback, or a steep cyclical selloff, capitalizing on mispriced panic is essential for building wealth. The host closes by promoting the final sale of 2026 for the 1000X platform (thousandxstocks.com), serving a community of over 8,000 members, and instructs viewers to sign up via the pinned link ahead of the Halloween discount rollout.
- **Sentiment Index Benchmark**: Proprietary institutional sentiment metrics have yet to hit peak panic, indicating potential for additional turbulence.
- **Historical Comparison**: 2018 playbook shows late-year market turbulence eventually forcing central bank accommodation.
- **Community Scale**: Over 8,000 active members currently utilize thousandxstocks.com.
## Notable quotes
> [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=300s) Like if you look out a decade from now, SoFi is going to be one of the biggest financial institutions in the world. — 主持人
> [34:55](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=2095s) The best buys in my opinion, risk reward for the next 36 months are not the most popular stocks. — 主持人
> [12:35](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=755s) I think a brand like SoFi, who's a trusted brand, provides FDIC insurance as a national bank and a Fed bank holding company, has a better chance of building that trust and reliability with consumers than any other technology company or financial service. — Anthony Noto
> [13:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1vkxE62EJH?t=795s) In fact, I feel as confident now of our business performing well in a rising rate environment as I feel it would perform in a declining rate environment. — Anthony Noto
## Mentioned
SoFi, Anthony Noto, The Cheesecake Factory, David Overton, Flower Child, North Italia, Fox Restaurant Concepts (FRC), Robinhood, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley, AMD, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Federal Reserve, S&P 500, Nasdaq-100 (QQQ), ThousandX
## Video description
【Financial Education】
SoFi业绩炸裂，金融科技巨头正在崛起
These 2 Stocks have UNLIMITED UPSIDE
[5:00] 主持人: Like if you look out a decade from now, SoFi is going to be one of the biggest financial institutions in the world.
[34:55] 主持人: The best buys in my opinion, risk reward for the next 36 months are not the most popular stocks.
[12:35] Anthony Noto: I think a brand like SoFi, who's a trusted brand, provides FDIC insurance as a national bank and a Fed bank holding company, has a better chance of building that trust and reliability with consumers than any other technology company or financial service.
[13:15] Anthony Noto: In fact, I feel as confident now of our business performing well in a rising rate environment as I feel it would perform in a declining rate environment.
Original transcript
[0:00] You've got to be flipping my flapjacks. We've got a lot to get into in this video here today. So yesterday on the main channel, I released this 57-minute video, talked about a whole host of subjects, but I started out that video and I was explaining how it's ridiculous how people can feel bad about their portfolios in a short-term time frame because it went up to a certain level and dropped a bit and they're all sad and depressed about their portfolio. Right now, I was talking about the public count and I was talking about how the public count 2 million and as of yesterday it dropped down to 4.9 million right and so I lost like a quarter million dollars roughly of value in like three weeks right and I was like you could focus on that or you could focus on You know, the fact that the public accounts gained $3.5 million of value over the past three years. Right. And the other thing I really wanted to bring out as a point is if you get a drop like that in your portfolio. in a short period of time. Just understand it can work the other way as well. And I think today was a perfect example of that. Look at the public count today. AMD, AMD, that stock was up $74,000 just in the public count alone today. SoFi had a huge day. That's a smaller position. That's a pretty small position in the public count. And that was still a $10,000 plus move in the public Okay, we got a lot to go through in this video here today, okay? First off, SoFi. We're going to talk SoFi here. Stock made a huge move. We'll talk about what's going on there. We'll talk about if that stock's an opportunity. I want to react to this interview of the SoFi CEO, Anthony Noto, as well, okay? Once we get done going through that, the Cheesecake Factory just reported shocking results. I mean, absolutely shocking results. I want to talk about this, if this stock's an opportunity, if it's a time to cash out of this stock. It's had a huge run and I'll explain also the biggest thing that matters the most for this stock. Robinhood. Robinhood stock's going down significantly. We'll talk about Robinhood and if there's a great opportunity in Robinhood stock now at this point in time. And then the last thing I want to do in this video here today is go ahead and react to Mike Wilson talking about clearing events over the next few weeks and that they're going to provide an amazing buying opportunity in this market. And so I want to share my opinion and perspectives on that one. busy action-packed video. We got a lot to go through. I just need one thing from you guys. If you could just smash that like button if you haven't already done so. That's all I need from you. Also make sure you subscribe to the channel. We are at, I don't know how many subscribers now, but it's an all-time high, and I appreciate each and every one of you for being here. Pin and comment down there today, the 1,000X sales coming up here in a few days. That is our last sale on any product in 2026. So if you want access to the last deal of the year, 4000X, that will be the pinned comment down there. Click on that, put in your name and or your email or phone number and we'll send over the deal when it does drop. And it's a Halloween special. Okay. Alrighty, guys. Let's go ahead. Let's get rolling here. Hey, listen. Cheers, SoFi shareholders. Amazing. I mean, these results were just amazing. Just insane. Adjusting net revenue up 44% to a record $1.4 billion. Adjusting EBITDA up 70% to a record $470 million. Adjusting net income of 243 mil EPS of $0.18. Member growth up 35% to a record now they're up 17.1 million members. What do I keep telling you guys? I keep telling you. The big banks better watch out, man. I'm not kidding. If I was a big bank, I would be a little worried. Because SoFi is coming for money. You know, the future generations and they're going to take massive market share. And when you're talking about 17.1 million members now, listen, you know, all these big old school banks, all these old financial institutions, whether we're talking Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, go through that whole list of them, right? These guys are very successful because they attracted the baby boomer generation, right? And maybe Gen X to a certain extent. And that's why those banks became massive financial institutions with market caps $100 billion or hundreds of billions, right? Right. Great. What happens that the younger generations are going to SoFi and they're Creating so fi as their financial institution and what's going to happen when you know baby boomers eventually right pass on and pass down that wealth and. a company like SoFi is going to be the most well-positioned to benefit from that, right? And so I'm like, you know... A lot of baby boomers are now retiring, right? And so... income coming in that you
[5:00] to come in is not going to be coming in here in the next few years because all these baby boomers are all starting to retire, right? have already started or will be retiring in the next five, ten years. Meanwhile, SoFi is attracting all the younger generation that's all now working, right, and building up their networks. And so... I'm just seeing the writing on the wall. and I just see that like Based upon the math, Sofis position themselves to become a financial giant. Like if you look out a decade, as long as Anthony Noto doesn't ever over leverage the company, and they can get through any future recessions. If you look out a decade from now, SoFi is going to be one of the biggest financial institutions in the world. Like it's unbelievable what they're accomplishing here, right? Product growth up 44% to 26.7 million products. So they're basically, they're selling now multiple products or, you know, offering multiple products and to members and members are going ahead and using those products, right? They raised their 2026 guidance to 5.04 billion of adjusted net revenue, $1.66 billion of adjusted EBITDA. They... Introduce their 2027 outlook of $6.4 billion of adjusted net revenue and $2.24 billion of adjusted EBITDA, 90 cents of EPS. *whistling* Crazy, man. I mean, these numbers are just a banger. So as far as the graded income statement, here's what I graded at and I posted this inside the private group. look at that person. Perfection. Oh my gosh. That's what we call an A+. So total interest income. was up 51%. total interest expense up 35 percent so That's gonna be good for us. So NII, one of the most important things you can ever look at for a financial institution, net interest income was up 59% year over year. Total net revenue is up 44%. Total non-interest income was not as impressive, but still impressive, right? 21%. So total net revenue is up 44%. Provision for credit losses, they raised that quite significantly, right? That was up 60% for the company year over year. Technology and product development up 18%, way less in revenue, right? Now sales and marketing, that was a really high line item there. That was 55% growth. So that one outstripped revenue, but... I mean, you know, sales and marketing, I mean... It's working. They're just attracting massive amounts of members. And at the end of the day, it's adding up to big numbers. So... Although it's a red because the number is higher as a percent than total net revenues, I got to say, man, they're winning. They're winning. Cost operations up 30%, G&A only up 7%, so total non-interest expense up 31%. Income before income tax is up 114%. Net income, so they had a big massive income tax expense here that they didn't really have in the same quarter last year. So to keep that in mind, 76 mil. Almost 77 mil versus 9 mil, a huge difference. So net income was still up an impressive 73% even with that income tax hit. EPS on a diluted basis up 64%. That's an A plus banger. for SoFi, let's go ahead and react to Anthony Odo, the CEO. No, no. Quality of the beat, 2027 confidence, diversification beyond lending. Hey, do you love the Reaction Channel or do you love the Reaction Channel, huh? Take payment opportunity. Like there's a lot that people like out there. And I thought we would start a conversation a little bit differently this quarter by me asking you what you were surprised by in the performance of your own company. Yeah. You know, I think the big question for us going into the quarter and really the back half of the year was how effective could we be at managing the interest rate risk? As rates were going higher, would we slow down growth? on loans? And the answer to that question is definitively yes. In fact, I feel as confident now of our business performing well in a rising rate environment as I feel it would perform in a declining rate environment. And that's a testament to the technology that we have, the data that we have, and our ability to real-time pass on higher benchmark rates to consumers in higher prices on loans while still driving growth in the rest of our business. We've mentioned on the call that that are generating $100 million of annual revenue or more. 87% of our products are now non-lending products. So we have great diversification, but when there is some cyclical issues or macro issues with lending, we're able to navigate through them and still drive accelerating revenue growth. So we grew 44% year-over-year, and that was driven by 35% member growth. And we're at the point now where we're driving member growth, allowed our products to grow 44%. So you can see the symmetry between 44% growth in products, 44% growth in revenue. The businesses of Lighting is under
[10:00] When you think about it on those terms and then factor in, can we handle economic uncertainty to make sure that we're driving that product earth and revenue for product and that's what we're able to do in the quarter. Well, case in point, operationally, lending is still growing strongly. I see that. Revenue grew 44%. Adjusted EBITDA grew 70%. And so I think a lot of people this morning are thinking, you know, how much more operating leverage is left for you in the business? If things are going well, right, Anthony, but how much more you can squeeze out of that? Yeah, we think our EBITDA margins can increase over time to as high as 40% or more. would range between 20% and 30%, likely to the higher end of that. We're going to focus on making sure we deliver 30% incremental net income margin so we can reinvest the other 70 cents in additional growth drivers. We set an objective to get to 100 million. 30, which is an increase from where we are today at $27 million. It's a very aspirational goal. It's not easy to get to, but it's definitely achievable. If we can drive that forex increase in products, it doesn't take that big of an imagination to see a forex increase in earnings from the 61 cents we're at today in 2026. In addition to that, we laid out that not only do we have the eight businesses that are greater than $100 million of revenue, $8 billion, another five businesses that are greater than $500 million, and a final five businesses that are greater than $100 million. So we're going to continue to focus on members, more products per member, and revenue per product, but that's how it should stake out from a business standpoint. Thank you for taking us to 2030, because I want to ask you a much bigger picture, longer term question, which is about AI agents. where AI agents move money and make purchases on behalf of SoFi customers, and that is a business for you? I think we can definitely end up in a world where AI agents find the best deals, the best interest rates on checking and savings, the best interest rates on loans, the best services, et cetera. SoFi is going to win in that world. We have a superior value proposition, and we have a unique competitive advantage. The breadth of our products, and each one of them having superior economics, gives us a higher lifetime value. And that higher lifetime value allows us to offer the consumer better interest rates on loans and better interest rates on checking and savings and other services. So AI, I think, is going to increase transparency of what's available. I think when we're on that shelf, we'll look better than anyone else. It'll increase the awareness of SoFi, which is a limiting factor in what we grow, which is why we have to continue to spend on marketing. else. Do I think AI agents will start to make payments? Yes. There are companies that provide automatic payments today, automatic trading today. If you go on SoFi today, you can set up bill pay. You can set up recurring investments. They're being done by machines. It's not super intelligence. It's linear intelligence. uh You can do it with linear intelligence. You can do it with agent intelligence. It really comes down to whether or not the consumer, the member, is willing to do that. I think a brand like SoFi, who's a trusted brand, provides FDIC insurance as a national bank and a Fed bank holding company, has a better chance of building that trust and reliability with consumers than any other technology company or financial service. stocks or opportunities. and other subjects. You know, let's finish out here with SoFi. Is SoFi still a great... buy even after being up huge today? And the answer in my opinion is without a question. Yes. Without a question. You know, stock traded up big to what, $16? It's still down 50% from all-time highs. This stock is still a steel deal. Steel deal. And the other thing you've got to understand about SoFi is it has a fundamental massive advantage against traditional competitors. The traditional competitors have massive fixed costs with their businesses, with these branches, and the way they've done their business models over the years. ATM machines and all that sort of stuff. SoFi doesn't have to deal with any of that. SoFi is asset light. branch on every corner. That's not how it works. That was very important, like the whole branch strategy and trying to be on every corner in the United States of America and if you went and did business international, right, and having an ATM machine everywhere. The previous generation, that was extremely important. You know, people like to actually go to the bank.
[15:00] and do their banking at an actual bank, right? Like think about... My parents, right? Baby boomer generation. They would go to the actual bank and deposit checks, right? And do those sorts of things. And they would go through the drive-through of the bank. And sometimes they'd stop at the ATM machine to get cash and these sorts of things. It was insanely important. old school, right? It's just not important to the younger generations and it's going to become even less important as time ticks on here. And so Sova doesn't have to worry about all that. So they'll remain asset light. And that's going to give them a huge margin advantage long term, which they can pour into what? sales and marketing, right? And get even more customers, more customers, more customers. So, and, uh, They're the most well positioned to really focus on banking related stuff, loans and checking accounts, savings accounts, things like that, right? Somebody, you know, if I look at, you know, the other company that's super successful, that's a fintech-y type company, is who? We're going to talk about them in just a moment. Robinhood, right? Robinhood is much more focused on the investment side of things as well as prediction markets, right? They're not nearly as focused on being a bank, right? And going to give you an auto loan or a home loan or be able to outsource you to somebody or something. doing insurance for you or checking accounts, savings accounts. Like that's just – Robinhood is kind of playing a little bit of a different game there, right? And so SoFi and Robinhood can compete in many areas, but their focuses are a little different, right? No different than – if I look at SoFi – SoFi wants you to buy Bitcoin through it and trade and also wants you to buy stocks through it. But that's not really their main focus, right? That's like... an additional product and service offering they have. Stock is still a huge buy, okay? Cheesecake Factory, let me be very clear about this. Cheesecake Factory. Shocking. shocking results from cake like me as a bull you guys know i've been speaking about the stock for years I'm in shock. By the numbers. Look at this. Comparable restaurant sales at the Cheesecake Factory restaurants increased 15.2% year-over-year? What? What? 15.2%?! This is ridiculous. We delivered an exceptional third quarter, generating record quarterly revenue with margins and earnings also exceeding our expectations, says David Overton, the CEO of the company. The Cheesecake Factory restaurants led our performance with comparable sales and traffic meaningfully outperforming the broader casual dining industry. Our experienced operators executed at a high level, delivering the outstanding food quality service and hospitality to keep our guests coming back. innovation and our rewards program and significant engagement across social media contributed to the impressive sales growth, while year-over-year improvements in labor productivity and food efficiency supported strong profitability. Cheesecake Factory has long enjoyed tremendous brand affinity across our operations or across generations, and its ability to attract younger guests reinforces the enduring appeal and relevance of our namesake's concept. We remain focused on delivering the memorable dining experience, blah, blah, blah. Now, development. The company opened six new restaurants, including two Cheesecake Factories, one North Italia and one Flower Child and two FRC restaurants. flower childs in one FRC restaurant. The company continues to expect to open as many as 26 new restaurants in fiscal 2026, including as many as five cheesecake factories, eight North Italia's, seven flower childs, and as many as six FRC restaurants. Now, if there's one gripe I have, if there's one, um, problem I have with the Cheesecake Factory. Let me just finish going through this and I'll explain to you guys You know, my problem here. But liquidity, the company had total available liquidity of $585 million, including cash balance of $249 million and $336 million availability under its revolving credit facility. Total principal debt outstanding was $575 million, representing principal amount of 2% convertible senior notes due 2030. and the company repurchase shares. It was an A-plus report. Revenue's up 14%. Food and beverage costs fell as a percent. Labor expense fell as a percent. Other operating costs and expenses fell as a percent. G&A fell as a percent. Depreciation and amortization fell as a percent. The one thing that was up as a percent was pre-opening costs, but... That's something you want to see because you want to see more restaurants open. Total cost and expenses fell to 92.8% of revenue from 95.9%.
[20:00] So now income from operations came in a 7.2% for the company. Holy smokes. That was a lot of pages. 7.2% and income from operations. was up 101% year over year. 101% year over year. This is a restaurant. Ladies and gentlemen, We got a banger on our hands. Net income, 92%. growth year over year, and dilute EPS 80% growth year over year. Okay. Let me show you the biggest thing. with the Cheesecake Factory. It's right here. This is the biggest Flower child comp sales were up 11% year over year. That's a banger number. Now it's not 13% like it was last quarter, but still, this is outpacing almost every other concept you could possibly imagine out there, right? 11% comp sales are incredible. So If there's one complaint I have against a Cheesecake Factory, it is this. They're not opening nearly enough flower child locations. They need to open dramatically more flower child. I mean, you know, if I had it my way, they would open, you know, 30 locations. Plus flower childs next year alone. Right. Followed up by 50 in 2028, followed up by 100 in 2029. Like we got to get rolling here with the flower child. Like they want to get to 800 locations, domestic locations. They're like, what, 50 something domestic locations is nothing. So we've got a long way to go with flower child growth. Opening seven flower childs a year is just not cutting in. We've got to go way faster. I know Cake loves to keep high quality and all that stuff, but we've got to figure out how to do that. while opening a lot more restaurants, man, because I'm just like, we're not expanding nearly fast enough. with Flower Child specifically, you can't have this sort of, oh, sorry, 700 domestic locations over time they're talking about, right? And right now they have 47, 47 open, right? But you can't have this sort of banger concept with these sorts of margins, right? And these sorts of comps and not like go faster. We got to go faster. We got to go faster, man. Got him. So the answer before we go into Robin Hood and before we get into other subjects here is Cheesecake Factory still an opportunity to... The answer is... This stock's going 200. It's not going to 200 tomorrow. But it's going to 200. Like, I'm very bullish on this company. We all know this. I've spoke about this company for years, right? And I have... I have a lot of money invested in this stock. Do I have as much as I have invested in AMD? No, it's not that dramatic. But it is a lot of money. This is 7% of the public account. is Cheesecake Factory. And I was looking over some of my other portfolios before earnings came out, and it's a big position in my other portfolios as well, like my private portfolios. This stock matters to me a lot. Like it's one of my top five biggest holdings I have. Okay? 0% interested in selling this stock. It's way better than I thought. Way better. And I'm a big time bull on this stock. I spoke so positively about this for years and it's dramatically better than I thought it was going to be. When you're super bullish on a stock and that company comes in with results that are dramatically better than you had anticipated. You can do nothing other than either hold or buy because This is just a banger, man. Like, we just knocked out a ballpark with this one. We got one, man. We got one with that one. Like, holy smokes. So any dip in that stock is a buying opportunity. Like if the stock's down tomorrow, it's a buying opportunity. If it's up tomorrow, it's a buying opportunity. Because what are you getting? You know, this company, you know, if you look at the forward P on it, the forward P on the cake is supposed to be about 23%. Well, guess what? Profitability is coming in way better than anybody anticipated. So the forward P-Yong cake might actually be like a 20. A 24p for a company growing revenues, double digit percentage that has two banger concepts that they're going to expand across the whole United States of America over the next decade. With North Talia and Flower Child? Never mind the other FRC concepts. and they've got more cakes to build as well, they've got the next 10 years of growth ahead. There's not many stocks you can buy into and be confident you've got a 10-year runway of growth. cake is one of those rare opportunities. It's a buy regardless if the stock's down or up tomorrow. Bottom line there. The stock honestly tomorrow should be at $120. That doesn't mean it well, it could be at $102 tomorrow, but the stock should be
[25:00] 120 plus dollars tomorrow. That's where it deserves to be. probably 125 plus. It should be. Doesn't mean it will. I'm just saying where it should be. Next one up here, the hood. So the hood has some really good things going for it and some shaky things okay transaction based revenues up 19 for the company That's a solid, solid number. Net interest revenues up 9% or down 9%. That was disappointing. Other revenues up 61%. They're growing that side of the business. a lot my guess is that's something with predictions markets there total net revenue is up 12 solid number for cake or for cake for the hood right solid number 12 brokerage and transaction was up 21 so that was up much faster than revenue was so that's not ideal technology and development up seven percent that's doable 139 operations was up provision for credit loss is up 173 that's a bad number marketing only up two percent so they kept that very much in check but then i'm like should - Is it prioritizing? Thank you. I don't know, man. Like, they're definitely not going heavy on marketing right now. And it's like, should they be going heavier on marketing? I don't know. There's a... Look what SoFi is doing. SoFi is marketing expenses up huge. But look at the numbers SoFi is putting up. Right. And it's funny. People used to. I remember Robin Hood investors, you know, a year or two ago. I remember just probably a year ago. Robin investors used to talk a lot of trash. Why are you in SoFi? Robinhood's where it's at. Robinhood's the one. Oh my gosh, Robinhood, look at the growth rates. Look how things change. Look how things change. Look at SoFi's growth rates. And then go look at your precious little Robin Hood. Okay, look how it changed, right? Nelson, SoFi's big dog on the street. SoFi's the one with the crazy growth rates and Robin Hood's the one like, And 12% revenue growth. So far it's like, oh, we wipe you down. That's no problem, right? So the other issue with the hood here is total operating expenses up 16% for the company year over year. So obviously much faster growth in expenses than revenues. Not ideal, right? Net income down 14% for the company year over year. Provision for income taxes hit hard. That was a 91% up number there. holders 16% down year over year, and diluted EPS went to 51 cents from 61 cents. So there's a D plus report for the hood. Now with that being said, we're looking at thousandxtalks.com here. You know, I'm looking at the charts feature like, you know, the projections here are looking really good for hood as far as continuing to build out revenues, continue to build out margins over time. Right. Look at the EPS trend on where it's supposed to go over the next year or so. Right. Free cash flow and operating cash flow been a little disappointing very recently. Financial health of the company looks good. Right. right uh cash marketable securities in debts for the company this looks very healthy as well uh No issue there, in my opinion. So balance sheet's fine. Share's outstanding. They've been keeping that pretty in check over time. Shareholder equity's been climbing for the company. It's something you want to see in any sort of financial-ish institution. Valuation P-ratio right now is in the 40s. Nah, it's not bad. Historical price to free cash flow. A little out of whack right now. Operating income. Look at this. Look at what the operating loss was just a few years ago versus operating income now. Like this is insane. Right. What a turnaround. Hood's one of the most incredible turnarounds you've really seen in the past three or four years. And that's why that stock went from seven dollars to like, you know, now it's, you know, even with being down huge after hours, it's still in the 80s. Right. So it's over 10x from the lows. It was a few years ago. Returning capital allocation, everything's looking good there. Capital return to shareholders has been climbing as a trend, right? And CapEx and... Research and development intensity is not much to worry about there. Before we get into is huda buy I just want to show you a few other features here we have on thousand X so you guys can understand. There's a dopamine page is where I have on my watch list for all my different stocks. This is the search page. for you can type in any ticker symbol right there and get all your information that you possibly want for these companies. We have the compare where you can compare three companies side by side. We have our charts feature I just showed you we have a reports where you can run an entry level report on a company, a hedge fund level report. So if we're trying to research hood, right, that's the one we're talking about, we can generate an entry level report for hood, bang, it's going to give us a whole entry
[30:00] ...level report so we can understand this company on a high level, and then we can generate a hedge fund level report on the hood and really go in depth here with the hood, right? We have income statements, balance sheets, we have our projections, and you can also load your projections in for different stocks you might have had over time, and that's very convenient to be able to load those, right? We also have advanced projections if you really want to go super in depth. We have earnings, so you can listen to all these different earnings calls right through 1000X as well. We have our metrics. We have our education portion, which is incredible. So let's say you want to really learn about how to perform SWOT analysis on a business. You can go very in-depth here, and it's going to explain in detail how to perform SWOT analysis on a company, strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats of a company. So once again, that's 1000X. That will be the pinned comment down there to get in for that deal. it a buy? My view on the hood if the stock's a buy, listen, Thank you. It's a buy if you have a five-year horizon. Absolutely. I think this is one you buy, you keep buying on and off for the next several years. If you want to be a long-term investor in this company, I think there would be money to be made, right? With that being said, you do have to understand... Yeah. you're gonna likely get hood a lot lower when you go through the next stock market correction or crash. right? We're not in one of those right now. But at some point in time, we could easily go through a correction or a crash in the market. Right. I don't know if it's, you know, this year, next year, the year after, but probably in the next two years, we're going to get a major correction or crash in the market in the next 24 months at some point. Right. And so. Just understand whenever that occurs, you're going to likely get hood for probably a lot lower than where you're at right now. But it doesn't mean it's a bad buy right now. You just got to have a long term horizon here with the hood. If you have a long term horizon, you want to own it. It's a good stock to own. It's been super innovative. I don't think they'll stop innovating. And I think it's a very successful company for the long term. OK. All right. Next up here, Mike Wilson talking about there's several clearing events that are going to play out over the next few weeks. It's going to provide attractive buying opportunities. This is going to be interesting. Opportunities as the market looks ahead to another leg higher in earnings growth. Mike joins us now for more. Mike, good morning. Good morning. Those clearing events were the feature of your note to start this week. You identified three of them. Can you share them with us this morning? Yeah. Well, first of all, maybe we get a 12% bond in Brazil too. about that. So what I would say is, you know, the markets have a way and part of the reason why the people are kind of looking past is there's so much going on, they can't focus. So the markets kind of grab onto what they know, which is earnings are still pretty good. Rates have actually come down. It's been more steady. So that's not a bad environment to be looking to add risk. Now, the three things that we're most focused on now and in no particular order, the obvious ones are the midterm elections, which is always a clearing event. I mean, historically, it's always a good month or so. But over the next 6 to 12 months, 100% certainty, going back to 1952, you make positive returns and usually double digits. So that's just something to keep in the back of your mind as things get wobbly. Keep that in the back of your mind. You should be stepping in and adding risk. Number two, I think, is around this idea around AI, CapEx, and the scarcity of capital. Okay, that one's pretty well understood too. And I think these companies are dealing with it properly, right? So they're doing the back and forth between equity issuance and debt issuance. of the spending and then they went to debt and we talked about that a year ago so okay now the debt thing begins there's going to be a separation between the weaker players and the stronger players that's happened and then the stronger players can actually issue equity so this is the way it's going to go it's just ebbing and flowing back and forth i think we're probably in the seventh or eighth inning of that digestion but we have a lot to digest them next month that's a clearing event as well i think it gets done and i think then we move forward from there and then the one i think that's not as appreciated is the liquidity constraint we've written about this I'm doing work on this over the last couple of years. I've been run over. So I'm very focused on this idea that it's about supply and demand. The Fed has tightened this year. Don't forget six or seven months ago, they were talking about, or the market was talking about them cutting rates. Okay, so now they've slowed the balance sheet growth, and they've raised rates 25 basis points, and they've allowed two or three, four more hikes to get priced in. That has done the tightening for the Fed. Financial conditions are now as tight as they were, okay, in 2018, also midterm election year, and you kind of know how that year ended. So my general take is the markets are going to press the Fed and other central banks to probably add liquidity at some point between now and year-end. So you're looking for a correction to year-end? No, I'm looking for more CHOP, and I'm looking for this to resolve itself. We've been correcting. I mean, this is one of the worst corrections we've seen beneath the surface since June. I think, you know, one thing we got right probably more than others is we identified that transition in June. Hey, it's not going to be as easy here because of liquidity, because of supply.
[35:00] because the rate of change on revision breadth. But now the market pretty much understands that quality rotation. So he brings out a great point there. Okay, listen. There has been a correction in the market, but it's beneath the surface. It's not an overall market correction like you typically get. where the whole market is down 15, 20%, something like that. But there's a massive amount of stocks that are not the ones that really move the S&P 500 or move the Qs. Right? that are down 20, 30, 40, 50% this year, or down 20, 30, 40%, 50% from their highs they reached this year. So, yeah, he's right on in regards to that. So you said that you expect the Fed and other central banks to add liquidity from here to the end of the year. What does that look like, just guiding that there are going to be no more? Which, by the way, if you want to know where the best opportunities in the stock market are, For buys, listen. The best buys in my opinion, risk reward for the next 36 months are not the most popular stocks. There are a lot of these beaten down stocks that people don't really talk about that I have incredible upside for the next several years. And... I'm obviously buying a lot of those stocks, and I talk about those stocks on this channel sometimes, but I definitely talk about them a lot on the main channel, Financial Education, right? Because there are some... banger opportunities out there that People just are missing, just like they missed the cheesecake factory. Starting to print money again? Give me the new acronym. I mean, you've got to come up with a new acronym for adding liquidity of some kind. I don't think they're going to do it here. But what I would say is if the markets want to press them. You said the markets will force the issue, which is why I asked you looking for a correction. What does forcing the issue look like? It could happen in credit markets, one in equity markets. We'll see. I don't know the answer. My point is I'm trying to help our clients. I'm trying to help myself figure out how this is going to resolve itself. We've been pretty well identified with this idea that we've had a quality rotation. We've had this breath deterioration. And if I look at this objectively, forget about my emotion around these particular issues, we've done a lot of work. The only thing that has not happened yet is our proprietary sentiment index, we published that this week, has not quite reached where it needs to go. Typically, that happens with some sort of a financial stress in the system. But it doesn't need to be a 20% correction. clear. And we have seen declines of that magnitude in select names, particularly in the AI related space, particularly related to earnings. I'm just wondering if we do get some sort of dovish rhetoric out of the Fed, does that make you feel this week, does that make you feel more confident about going into these AI names to go into the biggest ones? Well, not only AI, but general risk taking for sure. So if the Fed is proactive this week and they kind of give us some dovish language or Right. Adding more liquidity. Right now, the balance sheet is not growing as fast as it was prior to Warsh's entry. And I think if that changes, I will definitely feel like, OK, they're being proactive. They don't even need the markets to press their hands. So back up the truck. Yeah, absolutely. When it comes to the midterm elections, I understand you say it should be a clearing event. But in your note, you also talk about how more investors are talking about this unknown, about whether or not Trump reengages with attacks on Iran following the midterms. 50s that actually the market goes down well like i said this not every year is a 100 guarantee you make money between the midterms and year end it's a six to 12 month view and so yes this could be one of those years where it lingers beyond say thanksgiving and into the into december like it was in 2018 we think there's a very interesting analogy there hey don't you even talk about 2018 only i talk about what happened in 2018 mister it was tightening the markets did press them and happen in post-minterns. There's going to be some sort of an event around whatever the president decides to do. He's said he's going to do something. Okay, I take him at his word. What I will tell you is those are always buying opportunities. So I don't know if that's a 5% correction, a 7% correction, or maybe no correction. So listen, what Mike Wilson said there, the most important thing you've got to take away is... It's always a buying opportunity, baby. It's always a buying opportunity. So you got to always take advantage. You know, whether you get small corrections, large corrections, crash in the market, always take advantage of those. They're terrible, terrible thing to waste. Okay. You know what else is a terrible thing to waste? The last sale of 2026 on any product we got out there in the marketplace in thousandxtalks.com is the one you need access to if you don't already have it. 8,000 plus people have access to thousandxtalks.com to get in for that deal. Check out the pinned comment down there. Click on that. And then put in your name and your email or your phone number. And we'll send over the deal when it drops on Halloween. It's a Halloween sale, folks. Okay? Hope you enjoy it. Much love and have a great day.
