【Financial Education】财报季巨头集体“暴雷”？谷歌、微软、AMD，谁是真金白银的AI赢家？

浑水摸鱼清源

AI-assisted summary of 【Financial Education】财报季巨头集体“暴雷”？谷歌、微软、AMD，谁是真金白银的AI赢家？ — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-10-29

Key ideas

谷歌云业务迎来爆发式增长，Q3营收同比翻倍至307亿美元，运营利润飙升至111亿美元；但单季度不动产与设备资本支出高达513亿美元引发市场对现金流的担忧，盘后回调使其远期市盈率降至约19倍。 (10:00)
ServiceNow第三季度调整后EPS不及预期，订阅成本激增58%且研发与营销费用全面失控，导致经营利润同比重挫33%、净利润下滑45%，高估值逻辑遭遇重创。 (17:28)
Cheesecake Factory交出“A+级”亮眼财报，单季营收同比增长14%，运营利润翻倍飙升101%；旗下健康餐饮品牌Flower Child加速拓店，预计将推动公司长线净利润率提升至10%以上。 (25:40)
微软Azure云业务维持48%的高速增长，但本季452亿美元资本支出因芯片及第三方产能交付延期而低于预期，这也预示着AMD等芯片供应商短期营收可能难以交出超预期暴击。 (32:51)

Detailed notes

## Background 该视频由Bilibili创作者“浑水摸鱼清源”于2026年10月29日发布。简介概述了本期内容聚焦美股财报季的剧烈分化，深度复盘了谷歌（GOOGL）、ServiceNow（NOW）、Cheesecake Factory（CAKE）与微软（MSFT）的核心财务数据，并探讨了科技巨头资本开支对AMD等半导体公司的短期与长期连锁反应及实操建议。

## TL;DR 视频深入剖析了财报季后几大标的的基本面质地与估值逻辑。谷歌凭借云业务翻倍、利润三倍化及TPU系统的强劲表现验证了AI变现能力，尽管巨额资本开支压制了自由现金流，但估值回落至19倍远期市盈率构成了绝佳买点；ServiceNow则因成本费用全面失控导致利润断崖式暴跌，主讲人果断看空并转向Palantir与Salesforce。此外，Cheesecake Factory凭借超预期的利润爆发和“Flower Child”概念扩张确立了十年长牛逻辑，而微软因交付推迟导致的资本开支低于预期虽对AMD短期营收带来压制，却不改AMD作为2027年最具爆发力万亿市值巨头的长期前景。

## Atmosphere & style 整体语调激昂、犀利且充满实战交易员的直率风格。主讲人毫不掩饰情绪起伏，既有对未能及时清仓ServiceNow的懊悔自嘲和对企业费用失控的不留情面痛批，也有在面对谷歌盘后大跌时迅速回归财务报表本质、冷静寻找恐慌错杀买点的专业定力。穿插其中的奥巴马与特朗普通话恶搞闹剧更为硬核的财报分析增添了幽默讽刺的看点，让整场复盘既像一场快节奏的盘后急诊排雷，又充满清晰严谨的基本面推演。

## Bulletin - [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=600s) 谷歌云业务迎来爆发式增长，Q3营收同比翻倍至307亿美元，运营利润飙升至111亿美元；但单季度不动产与设备资本支出高达513亿美元引发市场对现金流的担忧，盘后回调使其远期市盈率降至约19倍。 - [17:28](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1048s) ServiceNow第三季度调整后EPS不及预期，订阅成本激增58%且研发与营销费用全面失控，导致经营利润同比重挫33%、净利润下滑45%，高估值逻辑遭遇重创。 - [25:40](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1540s) Cheesecake Factory交出“A+级”亮眼财报，单季营收同比增长14%，运营利润翻倍飙升101%；旗下健康餐饮品牌Flower Child加速拓店，预计将推动公司长线净利润率提升至10%以上。 - [32:51](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1971s) 微软Azure云业务维持48%的高速增长，但本季452亿美元资本支出因芯片及第三方产能交付延期而低于预期，这也预示着AMD等芯片供应商短期营收可能难以交出超预期暴击。

## Key takeaways - [04:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=249s) 散户投资者往往过度依赖股价涨跌作为业绩好坏的标准，正确的投资分析应深入财务报表与电话会议，评估核心业务指引是否改变。 - [06:12](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=372s) 谷歌总营收同比增长25%突破千亿美元，成本费用增速受控推动核心经营杠杆扩大，单季度运营利润同比大增30%至405亿美元。 - [06:12](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=372s) 谷歌GAAP净利润同比下滑24%系受非经常性会计调整影响，主要源于股权证券投资组合产生82亿美元账面亏损，而非核心业务恶化。 - [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=600s) 谷歌云呈现收入与利润双爆发，营收同比激增103%至307亿美元，运营利润从36亿美元跃升至111亿美元，AI货币化落地成效显著。 - [11:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=675s) 谷歌季度不动产和设备采购支出高达513亿美元，接近单季净利润的两倍，导致季度自由现金流转负，资本开支回报率成为市场争议焦点。 - [12:50](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=770s) 谷歌自研TPU系统正成为英伟达高价GPU的强劲替代品，已向Anthropic和甲骨文等外部核心客户大规模供货，直接贡献了显著营收。 - [15:24](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=924s) 受财报后非理性抛售影响，谷歌远期市盈率已压缩至约19倍，显著低于四年历史中位数的23倍，股价回撤约30%后具备长期配置价值。 - [17:28](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1048s) ServiceNow订阅收入增速停留在21%，而订阅成本飙升58%、研发费用增长27%，费用全面膨胀直接抹杀了经营利润。 - [22:33](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1353s) 在高估值与业绩不及预期的冲击下，资金逐步规避ServiceNow，转向估值门槛更低、执行力更佳的Salesforce以及AI转化更扎实的Palantir。 - [25:40](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1540s) Cheesecake Factory业绩表现超常，营收增长14%的同时，经营利润同比劲增101%、净利润大涨92%，展现出极强的经营杠杆。 - [27:43](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1663s) Flower Child成为Cheesecake Factory核心第二增长曲线，明年计划新开11至13家门店，有望驱动集团净利润率从2%-6%向10%以上跃升。 - [30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1800s) 奥巴马与特朗普围绕Cheesecake Factory的公开口水战与恶搞梗图，意外为该餐饮品牌创造了不可估量的免费公关与知名度曝光。 - [32:51](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1971s) 微软452亿美元的资本支出低于预期的500亿美元以上，主因系部分采购英特尔芯片和英伟达GPU的第三方交付被推迟至后续季度。 - [35:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=2100s) 受云巨头短期采购交付节奏影响，AMD短期营收虽难有颠覆性暴击，但利润率与EPS仍有超预期潜力，长线看好其在2027年万亿市值阵营中的爆发力。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=0s) The "Flapjack Flipper" Market: Extreme Divergence Across Holdings

The broader stock market is behaving like what the host characterizes as a "flapjack flipper," where strong performers continue to rip higher while struggling names sink deeper into the freezer. In the host’s public portfolio, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) notched an intraday gain of $46,000, pushing total open profits on the position to nearly $1.2 million—a cumulative return of 418%. SoFi Technologies gained an additional 4.5% on the session, bringing total gains on that holding to 85%, while RH (Restoration Hardware) added another 3%, pushing total profits to nearly 17% and generating five figures in gains despite being a relatively new addition to the public portfolio. Conversely, the lagging names remain completely frozen: Meta dropped another $7,700 on the day, Nike remains locked in the deep freeze, and Netflix dipped nearly 15% in the public account, with the looming threat of end-of-year tax-loss harvesting by institutional Wall Street managers expected to create additional selling pressure. Celsius Holdings also continues to trade weakly, though the host maintains that its long-term upside remains substantial.

After the closing bell, earnings season triggered violent after-hours volatility. Alphabet (humorously dubbed "Google McDougal") entered what the host classifies as an official crash territory, trading down nearly 30% from its all-time high set earlier in the year as after-hours trading battered the stock. ServiceNow suffered a severe cliff-dive, plunging between 15% and 20% in extended trading on top of a 3% decline during regular market hours. That dramatic collapse dragged down enterprise peer Salesforce in sympathy. The host had trimmed profits on ServiceNow in the public account just days prior, yet still carried a six-figure ($100,000) position into the print up 52%, which will be heavily compressed at market open. Similarly, The Cheesecake Factory delivered an absolute blowout quarter that earned an "A+" grade, yet the shares unexpectedly slid 2.5% in after-hours trading, perplexing retail observers. AMD was likewise dragged down in extended trading following tech peer reports.

- **AMD:** Up $46,000 on the day; public account position up roughly $1.2 million (a 418% return). - **SoFi Technologies:** Gained 4.5% on the day; position up 85% overall. - **RH (Restoration Hardware):** Gained 3% on the day; up nearly 17% into five-figure profit territory. - **ServiceNow (NOW):** Sunk 3% during regular hours and another 15% to 20% after hours; host entered earnings with a $100,000 position up 52%. - **Alphabet (GOOGL):** Slumped after hours, now down approximately 30% from its prior all-time high. - **The Cheesecake Factory (CAKE):** Down 2.5% after hours despite posting an "A+" quarter.

> “We call this stock market the flapjack flipper. Look at this. The hot remains hot.” — Host

---

[04:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=249s) The Fundamental Flaw of Retail Investors: Price Action vs. Earnings Calls

The host issues a direct piece of advice for anyone seeking to build wealth in public equities: do not evaluate corporate fundamentals based merely on immediate stock price swings. Most retail investors fall victim to the "dopamine page" on platforms like 1000X Stocks, obsessively refreshing watchlists as tickers flash green and red. They operate under the naive heuristic that a stock dropping after earnings automatically indicates bad quarterly results, while a stock popping means the underlying business executed well. The host stresses that investing requires digging beneath short-term market noise by dissecting raw financial statements and attending quarterly earnings calls to assess whether the original investment thesis remains intact.

Listening to executive management teams on conference calls provides the qualitative context needed to calibrate quantitative valuation models. If a company's operational trajectory outpaces initial assumptions, an investor can raise forward revenue growth projections by a percentage point or two, which recalculates projected multi-year returns and clarifies whether the equity is an attractive buy at current levels. The host announces an upcoming Halloween promotional event for the complete 1000X Stocks product suite and investor education tools, which includes shipping a custom steel membership card to new subscribers.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Investor Analysis Workflow accDescr: Contrasting superficial price-watching with rigorous fundamental earnings analysis and model adjustments.

subgraph RetailTrap["The Superficial Retail Approach"] A["Watch Dopamine Ticker Feeds"] --> B{"Share Price Moves"} B -->|"Price Down"| C["Assume Earnings are Terrible"] B -->|"Price Up"| D["Assume Company is a Winner"] end

subgraph RigorousWork["The Fundamental Analysis Approach"] E["Read Earnings Reports & Statements"] --> F["Listen to Conference Calls"] F --> G["Evaluate Business Execution & Guidance"] G --> H["Adjust Financial Model & Growth Rates"] H --> I["Determine Intrinsic Value & Action"] end ```

> “What I find a lot of times with a lot of retail investors is they will just look at the stock price reaction. They won't even dig into the numbers or listen to conference calls or anything with these companies.” — Host

> “You can put in the work and you can have insane success or you don't put in the work and you don't have success. It's really as simple as that.” — Host

---

[06:12](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=372s) Alphabet (Google) Q3 Earnings: Top-Line Surge and the Accounting Distortion

Alphabet reported exceptional top-line performance, printing 25% year-over-year revenue growth. Delivering that magnitude of expansion is extraordinary for an established tech conglomerate generating well over $100 billion per quarter across its diverse empire of Search, Gemini AI, YouTube, Android, and Google Cloud. Operating efficiency also showed disciplined execution: cost of revenue increased 24% (trailing top-line growth), research and development expenses rose 36%, and sales and marketing expanded by 22%. Crucially, general and administrative (G&A) expenses dropped 17% year over year. Because overall costs and expenses grew 22%—three percentage points below revenue growth—operating leverage expanded dramatically, pushing operating income up 30% year over year from $31.2 billion to $40.5 billion.

The bottom-line headline figures, however, appeared alarming on the surface because net income fell 24% and diluted earnings per share fell 26%. The host explains that this drop was caused entirely by a non-operational accounting swing under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP). Alphabet recorded an $8.2 billion "other expense" item during the quarter, contrasted against a $12.7 billion non-operating gain in the prior-year period. This line item fluctuates wildly quarter to quarter based on paper gains and losses from Alphabet's portfolio of marketable equity securities. Stripping out that non-operational distortion, the host grades the core operational report an "A-".

- **Revenue Growth:** Up 25% year over year, surpassing $100 billion in the quarter. - **Cost of Revenue:** Rose 24% year over year. - **R&D Spending:** Up 36% year over year. - **Sales & Marketing:** Up 22% year over year. - **G&A Expenses:** Decreased 17% year over year. - **Total Costs & Expenses:** Increased 22% year over year. - **Operating Income:** Jumped 30% year over year, rising from $31.2 billion to $40.5 billion. - **GAAP Other Expense:** Negative $8.2 billion mark, compared to a positive $12.7 billion gain in Q3 of the prior year. - **GAAP Net Income & Diluted EPS:** Down 24% and 26% year over year, respectively, due strictly to unrealized investment mark-to-market shifts.

> “For a company that's as established as Google is, for a company that's doing $100 billion plus a quarter in REV, crazy to be putting up that sort of growth.” — Host

---

[08:30](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=510s) Google Cloud Revenue Doubles: Validating the AI Infrastructure Bet

The critical centerpiece of Alphabet's earnings report—and the operational engine Wall Street scrutinizes above all else—is Google Cloud. The segment posted historic acceleration, more than doubling its top line on a year-over-year basis. Google Cloud revenue surged from $15.1 billion in the third quarter of the prior year to $30.7 billion in the reported period. For a cloud infrastructure unit operating at enterprise scale, 100%+ top-line expansion demonstrates that Alphabet’s heavy capital deployment into artificial intelligence, TPU clusters, and hyper-scale compute architecture is generating immense commercial adoption rather than empty top-line inflation.

- **Google Cloud Q3 Prior Year Revenue:** $15.1 billion. - **Google Cloud Q3 Current Year Revenue:** $30.7 billion (more than 100% year-over-year increase).

> “Their cloud business is just booming right now.” — Host

[10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=600s) Google Cloud's Profit Explosion and the Query Growth Surge

Addressing skeptics who claim that cloud and artificial intelligence divisions are merely black holes burning cash without generating bottom-line returns, the speaker forcefully points to the operating income of Google Cloud. Rather than bleeding capital, the profitability of the unit has undergone an astonishing transformation, surging more than threefold year over year from approximately $3.6 billion to $11.1 billion. While top-line expansion for the cloud segment is undeniably booming, the rate of profit growth is accelerating at an even more dramatic clip. Outside of obvious hardware bellwethers like NVIDIA and memory chip manufacturers, Google is capitalizing on the secular AI wave better than virtually any other enterprise on earth.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Google Cloud Financial Acceleration accDescr: Diagram illustrating Google Cloud revenue doubling while operating profit triples. subgraph CloudPerformance["Google Cloud Metrics (YoY)"] direction TB R["Revenue Growth: +103% Enterprise AI & Core GCP"] P["Operating Income $3.6B ➔ $11.1B (Over 3x)"] end subgraph Drivers["Core Catalysts"] direction TB T["TPU System Sales"] Q["Search Queries: Highest 5-Yr YoY Growth"] end CloudPerformance --> Drivers ```

Delving into the operational highlights, the speaker notes that Google Cloud delivered record performance driven by triple-digit revenue growth of 103%. This expansion was propelled by widespread enterprise adoption across Google Cloud Platform (GCP), encompassing enterprise AI infrastructure, enterprise AI application solutions, and standard core GCP services. Furthermore, direct sales of Google's proprietary Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) systems stepped up as a substantial, meaningful driver of top-line revenue. Beyond enterprise cloud workloads, the underlying consumer ecosystem is experiencing an AI-fueled tailwind: Google's year-over-year search query growth reached its highest level in five years, demonstrating that conversational and generative enhancements are driving user engagement rather than cannibalizing core search behaviors.

- Google Cloud operating income expanded over 3x year over year, jumping from roughly $3.6 billion to $11.1 billion. - Segment revenues soared by 103%, underpinned by enterprise AI infrastructure and core GCP services. - Search query volume recorded its strongest year-over-year expansion in five years.

As the speaker summarizes: “If there's somebody that's actually benefiting from in a massive way from, AI I mean, Google's benefiting about the best of any company in the world outside of obviously NVIDIA, right?”

---

[11:15](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=675s) Surging Capex and the Cash Flow Divergence

Despite the operational triumphs, a contentious debate continues to divide Wall Street regarding the sheer magnitude of hyperscaler capital expenditure and whether these multi-billion-dollar outlays will generate adequate economic returns. If a company deploys $200 billion into data center infrastructure and advanced silicon in a single fiscal year, investors must question whether that investment will ultimately yield $400 billion, $600 billion, or $800 billion in cumulative cash flow over the coming decade—or whether returns will disappoint at a mere $100 billion. The sheer scale of Google’s balance sheet allocation is staggering: while the company booked $26.4 billion in quarterly net income (a figure that would have approached $34 billion to $35 billion were it not for an $8.2 billion accounting impairment), the cash flow statement tells an alarming story about cash drain.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Google Capex vs Net Income Divergence accDescr: Visualizing Google capital expenditure outpacing quarterly net income. subgraph Earnings["Profitability & Capital Allocation"] direction LR NI["Quarterly Net Income $26.4B (Adjusted: ~$34B-$35B)"] Capex["Purchases of Property & Equipment $51.3B (Nearly 2x Net Income)"] end subgraph CashDivergence["Cash Flow Disconnect"] direction LR OCF["Operating Cash Flow At All-Time Highs & Climbing"] FCF["Free Cash Flow Tumbling / Negative Quarterly"] end Earnings --> CashDivergence ```

A direct inspection of the statement of cash flows reveals that Google expended $51.3 billion on purchases of property, plant, and equipment within the quarter. That single line item represents nearly double the entirety of the firm’s quarterly net income. Turning to the charting tools on 1000xstocks.com, the speaker highlights an unusual divergence between operating liquidity and true discretionary cash generation. On a trailing twelve-month basis, operating cash flow continues to pile up at record highs; however, free cash flow has precipitously dropped, sliding into outright negative territory on an isolated quarterly basis because management is aggressively funneling every cent of incoming liquidity straight back into physical and digital infrastructure.

- Quarterly net income came in at $26.4 billion after factoring in an $8.2 billion charge. - Property and equipment purchases reached $51.3 billion, roughly twice total quarterly net earnings. - Operating cash flow is climbing to all-time highs, while quarterly free cash flow has collapsed into negative territory.

Highlighting the unease surrounding this spending spree, the speaker points out: “So nearly 2x the amount of net income the company had they spent on just property and equipment.”

---

[12:50](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=770s) TPUs as a Cost-Effective Alternative to NVIDIA Hardware

Taking a deliberate pause to unpack hardware dynamics, the host evaluates why hyperscalers and frontier AI laboratories are actively adopting Google's custom-built Tensor Processing Units over standard graphics processing units. In an era where NVIDIA accelerators remain exceptionally scarce and carry premium pricing, Google’s application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) provide an accessible, cost-effective avenue for institutions seeking to scale out foundational models and inference clusters without encountering catastrophic margin degradation. Google has fundamentally shifted its commercialization playbook: rather than strictly walling off TPUs for internal workloads or private rentals inside Google Cloud, the company now licenses and sells TPU hardware directly to prominent industry leaders.

Anthropic stands out as a prime example, formulating plans to deploy up to one million Google TPUs to power its frontier research and commercial offerings. At the same time, Google has struck strategic hardware distribution partnerships with rival cloud titans, including Oracle. The speaker stresses that the global appetite for high-performance computing silicon over the next several years is sufficiently immense that multiple merchant vendors and custom ASIC developers will thrive concurrently. There is plenty of capital to support NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Broadcom, and Amazon, but Google’s unique positioning as both a tier-one cloud provider and a premier custom silicon supplier cements it as one of the ultimate beneficiaries of hardware spending.

- Google's custom ASICs offer a budget-friendly, readily accessible alternative to supply-constrained NVIDIA GPUs. - Leading AI research lab Anthropic has outlined plans to deploy up to 1 million TPUs. - Strategic silicon partnerships extend to competing cloud platforms such as Oracle.

Emphasizing the sheer volume of industry capital chasing compute infrastructure, the speaker observes: “There's just so much money being spent on chips right now for the next few years. You need it all. And one of the big chip beneficiaries will end up being Google as well.”

---

[15:24](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=924s) Google's Valuation: A Dip-Buying Opportunity at 19x Forward P/E

Examining the steep post-earnings sell-off, the host transitions from operational metrics to equity valuation, evaluating whether the immediate market pullback constitutes a trap or a prime entry point. Taking into account the company's 25% consolidated top-line growth, doubling cloud revenues, and tripling cloud profits, the price investors are asked to pay has decoupled from fundamental performance. Historical tracking data from 1000xstocks.com reveals that Google’s four-year median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio sits around 23. Following the after-hours tumble, the stock trades at an estimated forward P/E of roughly 19.

The speaker candidly shares their initial psychological reaction to seeing the after-hours drop—momentarily regretting not selling their remaining position—before reviewing the underlying financial statements and recognizing that the panic had opened up an exceptional discount. Having pulled back around 30% from its recent all-time highs, Google presents an attractive risk-reward profile for long-term allocators, even though large-cap technology equities frequently endure drawdowns of 40% to 50% during volatile macro regimes, just as Meta did during its 70% collapse in 2022. Rather than heading for the exits, the speaker views any additional weakness as an opportunity to accumulate shares.

- Historical 4-year median P/E ratio for Google is approximately 23x. - Post-earnings after-hours trading compressed the forward P/E multiple down to roughly 19x. - The equity is currently trading down roughly 30% from peak historical levels.

Reflecting on the mispriced market reaction, the speaker asserts: “And so me personally, I obviously saw the stock was down, and my first thought was, dang, man, I should have sold the rest of my shares. But then I went through the results, and I said, oh, if anything, this stock's actually a buy.”

---

[17:28](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1048s) ServiceNow's High-Valuation Stumble: Revenue Deceleration and Expense Bloat

The tone shifts abruptly from praise for Google to an unsparing critique of enterprise software bellwether ServiceNow (NOW), whose shares cratered by around 20% in post-earnings trading. Heading into its third-quarter report, ServiceNow was an exceptionally momentum-driven stock, having skyrocketed from $80 to over $150 per share. At such stretched valuations, the market demands flawless execution and substantial guidance raises. Instead, ServiceNow delivered third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.00 per share, falling short of consensus expectations of $1.02. To compound the disappointment, management’s fourth-quarter subscription revenue guidance range of $4.24 billion to $4.255 billion merely bracketed Wall Street’s $4.25 billion midpoint estimate.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: ServiceNow Q3 Operating Margin Squeeze accDescr: Diagram showing how cost and expense growth outpaced gross profit, crushing operating income. subgraph TopLine["Revenue & Costs (YoY)"] direction LR Rev["Subscription Revenue: +21%"] SubCost["Subscription Cost: +58% Total Cost: +56%"] GP["Gross Profit: +10%"] end subgraph Opex["Operating Expenses (YoY)"] direction LR SM["Sales & Marketing: +20%"] RD["R&D: +27%"] GA["G&A: +11%"] TotOpex["Total OpEx: +22%"] end subgraph BottomLine["Operating Impact"] OI["Income from Operations: -33%"] end Rev --> SubCost --> GP GP --> Opex TotOpex --> BottomLine ```

The underlying income statement reveals severe operational cost creep that crippled profitability. While subscription revenue grew by a respectable 21%, it exhibited zero sign of the hyper-acceleration needed to justify a frothy valuation. Worse, subscription cost of revenue exploded by 58%, and total cost of revenue spiked by 56%, compressing gross profit growth to a meager 10%. Operating expenses spiraled out of control across the board: sales and marketing climbed 20% (double the rate of gross profit growth), research and development surged 27%, and general and administrative expenses ticked up 11%. With total operating overhead expanding by 22% against modest 10% gross profit growth, ServiceNow’s income from operations suffered a punishing 33% year-over-year collapse.

Refusing to soften the blow for a high-flying enterprise favorite, the speaker concludes: “You can't sugarcoat this. This is trash out of ServiceNow.”

[20:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1200s) ServiceNow 费用全面失控，利润崩塌与清仓反思

针对 ServiceNow（NOW）最新公布的财务数据，分析指出该公司的经营利润（Income from operations）遭受重创，同比暴跌 33%。更严重的问题在于，这并非单一会计科目的单点故障，而是整张损益表中“所有的费用细项都在出问题”。财报显示，公司净利润同比大幅下挫 45%，摊薄每股收益（Diluted EPS）同比下滑 44%。如果一家企业在营收（Top line）录得 21% 增长的背景下，底层利润（Bottom line）却大幅缩水超过四成，其业务质量显然亮起了红灯。这种恶化并非类似谷歌由投资标的估值波动带来的非经常性账面冲击，而是源自公司内部经营体系的实质性失衡。

面对这一糟糕局面，主讲人直言该股票目前“完全不值得持有”，并对自己的仓位处理表达了深刻的懊悔：“我早就该退出了。我其实知道这一点。我前段时间刚刚卖了一部分仓位，当时看着那个价格，心里就想应该全部清仓，但我居然没做。我本来想走的，却错过了最好的撤出时机。”尽管早期持仓仍然积累了相当丰厚的回报，并不至于面临血本无归，但如今只能在显著缩水的盘后价位抛售剩余头寸。同时，未来的剩余履约义务（RPO）等前瞻性指标同样令人沮丧。首席执行官 Bill McDermott 在每次财报电话会议和媒体访谈中都极其善于画大饼、大谈远大前景，然而实际财报数据却屡屡打脸，唯一真正“冲天起飞”的只有全面膨胀的营业费用，而营收增速仅仅勉强持平预期，毫无惊喜可言。

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: ServiceNow 费用失控对利润的侵蚀机制 accDescr: 图表展示了 ServiceNow 在收入维持 21% 增长的情况下，由于研发、营销和订阅成本失控，导致经营利润和净利润大幅下滑的传导路径。

subgraph TopLine["营收表现"] Rev["营收增长 +21% (符合市场预期，无上行惊喜)"] end

subgraph Costs["费用全面爆发"] SubExp["订阅成本飙升 +58%"] SMMExp["销售与营销费用 +20%"] RDExp["研发支出 +27%"] end

subgraph ProfitDestruction["利润端遭受重创"] OpInc["经营利润暴跌 -33%"] NetInc["净利润重挫 -45%"] EPS["摊薄 EPS 下滑 -44%"] end

Rev --> Costs SubExp --> OpInc SMMExp --> OpInc RDExp --> OpInc OpInc --> NetInc NetInc --> EPS ```

- 经营利润（Income from operations）：同比下滑 33% - 净利润（Net income）：同比断崖式下跌 45% - 摊薄每股收益（Diluted EPS）：同比缩水 44% - 营收（Revenue）：同比增长 21%（符合预期，未现超预期上行空间）

---

[22:33](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1353s) 高估值与低预期的博弈：弃选 ServiceNow，转向 Salesforce 与 Palantir

在高企的估值和极度苛刻的市场预期之下，ServiceNow 缺乏亮点的营收指引彻底放大了资金撤退的风险。相比之下，同样作为企业级软件巨头的 Salesforce（CRM）当前的预期门槛已经被打得极低，反而具备更好的风险收益比。主讲人强调，长期来看他更信任 Marc Benioff 对商业模式的掌舵能力，直言 Bill McDermott 虽然是一名优秀的职业经理人，但在实际数据兑现上总是难以匹配自己的宣传口径：“他每次都把牛吹得天花乱坠，但在我看来，他的实际财务数字根本支撑不了他的说辞。”若费控得当，20% 以上的营收增速原本是一份出色的答卷，但一旦全公司的费用失控，高估值就会瞬间化为沉重负担，导致整条企业软件赛道（包括 CRM）在隔日开盘遭受连带抛压。

与此同时，Palantir（PLTR）展现出了截然不同的基本面质感。Alex Karp 带领的团队没有寻找任何宏观或行业借口，正在以惊人的速度将 AI 浪潮转化为切实的真金白银。Palantir 的营业费用并没有脱轨失控，毛利与营收增速稳步攀升，完全没有出现费用增速吞噬营收的情况。在横向对比中，Palantir 展现出了对同业竞争者的统治级优势。因此，当前的资本配置策略非常明确：彻底撤离 ServiceNow，将资金转移并重仓到业绩执行力更强、收益潜力更大的 Salesforce 以及“身处另一个竞争维度”的 Palantir。

主讲人在剖析 Palantir 时评价道：“Palantir 的费用并没有彻底失控、更没有远远超出其毛利润和营收增速；在我看来，Palantir 正在完全压制那些所谓的同赛道高成长竞争对手。”

---

[25:40](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1540s) Cheesecake Factory 财报大超预期，核心数据爆发

话题随后转向 Cheesecake Factory（CAKE）。与软件板块的分化形成鲜明对比的是，CAKE 交付了一份堪称“A+ 级”的成绩单。公司不仅营收增速远超市场预期，利润率和整体盈利水平更是呈现出爆发式增长。在餐饮行业的大背景下，公司单季录得 14% 的营收增幅，这一表现甚至让主讲人和私享会员社群（Private Group）成员在最初看到数据时怀疑是财报打错了字。主讲人回忆道：“我当时心想，CAKE 能有 14% 的营收增长？这绝对是个打字错误吧。结果根本不是笔误，我当时整个人都惊呆了，这简直太不可思议了。”

随着营收稳健攀升，经营杠杆与成本控制展现出极强的放大效应： - 营业收入：同比攀升 14% - 经营利润（Income from operations）：同比暴涨 101% - 净利润（Net income）：同比大涨 92% - 摊薄每股收益（Diluted EPS）：同比劲增 80%

---

[27:43](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1663s) “Flower Child” 扩张蓝图展开，十年长牛逻辑确立

通过对业绩电话会的深入追踪，Cheesecake Factory 旗下健康餐饮概念品牌“Flower Child”的扩张路径逐渐清晰。管理层明确给出指引，预计明年将新开 11 至 13 家 Flower Child 门店，相比今年全年的约 7 家实现了接近翻倍的扩张速度。虽然这一开店节奏略低于主讲人更激进的期望，但毫无疑问标志着公司正朝着极具价值的第二增长曲线迈进。

由于 Flower Child 具有极强的利润增厚（Margin accretive）属性，这一新品牌将在中长期彻底改变母公司的盈利结构：

这种增长不同于某些科技公司画大饼式的概念兜售，其执行路径透明清晰且具备可复制性：通过持续的菜单创新提升客单价、阶段性适度提价抵御通胀、严格锁死运营成本，并在全美范围内快速铺设 Flower Child 和 North Italia 门店。主讲人断言这是一只“绝对值得一路拿到 2030 年代的核心持仓股”，其扩张路径宛如当年的星巴克或 2006 年刚上市的 Chipotle：“遇到这种确定性极高的局面，你唯一需要做的就是尽可能死死拿住股票。”

[30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1800s) 餐饮品牌复制扩张与奥巴马特朗普通话中的免费宣传

主讲人回顾了餐饮概念的成功模式，认为当一个概念在全美范围内被验证可行时，投资者要做的就是死死拿住股票。就像早期的成功案例一样，如今的 Flower Child 已经进驻了足够多的主流大城市，毫无疑问已经成为一个巨大的赢家，旗下另一个品牌 North Italia 同样展现出了清晰的扩张路线，公司的成长路径因此变得极其明朗。

在转向半导体板块前，主讲人特意提到了最近几天围绕 Cheesecake Factory 的一出政治热点闹剧。美国前总统奥巴马在为 2026 年中期选举造势时，公开嘲讽特朗普对白宫的装潢翻新，声称特朗普把白宫装潢得满地金碧辉煌，活像萨达姆·侯赛因开了一家 Cheesecake Factory。特朗普随即强硬回击，称奥巴马既不聪明也是个糟糕的总统，并反问“这怎么可能是 Cheesecake Factory？”，盛赞 Cheesecake Factory 是一家非常成功的企业，并挖苦奥巴马讨厌成功的商业公司。随后，官方推特账号甚至发布了一张由特朗普各项政治成就填满的 Cheesecake Factory 菜单恶搞图，并配文称唯一比这家餐厅菜单还长的就是特朗普的政绩清单。面对这出跨越两党的政治口水战与网络狂欢，主讲人直呼这简直是一场荒唐的马戏团表演，但作为投资者，他乐见其成并表示：“Thank you very much, President Obama. And thank you very much, President Trump, for just even engaging in this conversation because it gets everybody talking about the Cheesecake Factory. And they're the ones who ends up benefiting from this.” 无论选民支持哪一边，Cheesecake Factory 都在这场争吵中获得了无可估量的免费品牌曝光。

- 奥巴马在中期选举集会上公开将特朗普对白宫的金色翻新风格比作“萨达姆开的 Cheesecake Factory”。 - 特朗普回怼奥巴马并公开夸赞 Cheesecake Factory 是一家极其成功的企业。 - 白宫相关官方推特借势发梗图，称唯有特朗普的政绩清单能比 Cheesecake Factory 那本超长的菜单更厚。 - 主讲人认为两党政客谁都不会从这番互撕中真正获益，最大的赢家正是获得了海量免费宣传的 Cheesecake Factory。

---

[32:51](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1971s) 微软强劲云增长与资本支出不及预期的深层原因

随后分析转向微软刚公布的盘后财报，以及其对整个人工智能产业链尤其是 AMD 的连锁反应。微软的业绩整体依然非常亮眼：Azure 云业务营收同比大幅飙升 48%，整体营收增长了 19%。在维持正向自由现金流的同时，微软仍在以极快的速度建设数据中心基础设施以承接庞大的 AI 需求。

然而，财报中出现了一个让华尔街感到意外的动态：微软本季度的资本支出和融资租赁总计为 452 亿美元，同比增长约 30%，但却比分析师普遍预期的 500 亿多美元低了 50 多亿美元。资本支出不及预期引发了市场对芯片供应商需求的疑虑，但主讲人拆解后指出，这并非微软削减了支出意愿，而是因为原本预计在一季度交付的部分第三方产能被延期交付了。目前微软约 75% 的资本支出都投向了诸如英特尔芯片和英伟达 GPU 等短期资产（高于过去三个季度的约 66%）。主讲人指出，微软未达标的这 50 亿美元资本支出，大概率是因为英伟达的部分芯片交付延迟到了后续季度，从而在账面上压低了本季度的资本开支数字。

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 微软资本支出不及预期原因及链条分析 accDescr: 展示微软Azure云业务高增长背景下，因第三方产能及芯片交付延迟导致资本支出低于预期的逻辑传导。

subgraph Operations["微软业务表现"] A["Azure云业务营收同比激增 48%"] B["微软整体营收同比增长 19%"] end

subgraph CapExDynamics["资本支出结构与缺口"] C["实际资本支出: 452 亿美元 (同比+30%)"] D["华尔街预期: 500 亿美元+"] E["资本支出缺口: 逾 50 亿美元"] F["短期资产占比升至约 75% (Intel芯片 / NVIDIA GPU等)"] G["第三方产能与芯片交付延期"] end

Operations --> C D -. 预期差.-> E C --> E G --> E F --> G ```

---

[35:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=2100s) 对 AMD 业绩的推演与 2027 年长期看好逻辑

综合 Meta、谷歌以及微软这几大科技巨头最新公布的资本开支规模，主讲人对即将发布财报的 AMD 进行了客观的前瞻推演。他明确判断，想要在即将公布的季度营收或业绩指引上看到让市场目瞪口呆的“震撼与惊喜（Shock and Awe）”恐怕不太现实，因为巨头们的资本开支并没有像过去那样超乎想象地失控疯涨。不过，主讲人强调营收端虽然难有极度惊艳的爆表表现，但超预期击败指引依然大概率会发生；更为关键的是，超预期的惊喜更有可能转移到利润率和每股收益（EPS）等盈利质量指标上。

从长线投资视角来看，主讲人对 AMD 的基本面信心坚定。他指出 AMD 目前处于万亿美元市值俱乐部的门槛边缘，只要股价略微反弹就会重新跻身其中。展望未来几年，主讲人做出了极为明确的判断：“Of those stocks, this is the most exciting stock to be in in 2027. They're going to have the biggest growth rates of any trillion-dollar-plus company.” 基于 AMD 在万亿美元俱乐部中潜在的最强增长爆发力，主讲人提醒投资者无需过度纠结短期的涨跌波动，历史经验表明每一次因财报或情绪引发的回调抛售，最终都会被资金迅速买回。在视频结尾，主讲人感谢观众的支持，并提醒大家关注 1000xstocks.com 即将开启的万圣节特惠活动以获取整套投资研究工具和教育课程。

- 结合 Meta、谷歌、微软的资本开支，AMD 本期财报在营收规模和营收指引上很难出现“颠覆性”的超高暴击。 - 业绩击败预期的真正看点在于利润率的扩张与每股收益（EPS）的表现。 - 主讲人预言 AMD 将是 2027 年所有万亿美元市值巨头中最具爆发力和增长速度的核心标的。 - 针对 AMD 的交易策略依然是保持耐心，利用市场恐慌带来的短期回调进行低吸布局。

## Notable quotes > [22:33](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1353s) Palantir 的费用并没有彻底失控、更没有远远超出其毛利润和营收增速；在我看来，Palantir 正在完全压制那些所谓的同赛道高成长竞争对手。 — Host

> [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=600s) If there's somebody that's actually benefiting from in a massive way from, AI I mean, Google's benefiting about the best of any company in the world outside of obviously NVIDIA, right? — Host

> [17:28](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1048s) You can't sugarcoat this. This is trash out of ServiceNow. — Host

> [12:50](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=770s) There's just so much money being spent on chips right now for the next few years. You need it all. And one of the big chip beneficiaries will end up being Google as well. — Host

> [04:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=249s) What I find a lot of times with a lot of retail investors is they will just look at the stock price reaction. They won't even dig into the numbers or listen to conference calls or anything with these companies. — Host

> [30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=1800s) Thank you very much, President Obama. And thank you very much, President Trump, for just even engaging in this conversation because it gets everybody talking about the Cheesecake Factory. And they're the ones who ends up benefiting from this. — Host

> [04:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6?t=249s) You can put in the work and you can have insane success or you don't put in the work and you don't have success. It's really as simple as that. — Host

## Mentioned 谷歌 (Alphabet / GOOGL), 微软 (Microsoft / MSFT), AMD (Advanced Micro Devices), ServiceNow (NOW), Cheesecake Factory (CAKE), Flower Child, North Italia, Palantir (PLTR), Salesforce (CRM), 英伟达 (NVIDIA / NVDA), 英特尔 (Intel), SoFi Technologies, RH (Restoration Hardware), Meta, 耐克 (Nike), Netflix, Celsius Holdings, Anthropic, 甲骨文 (Oracle), 博通 (Broadcom), 亚马逊 (Amazon), Chipotle, 星巴克 (Starbucks), Bill McDermott, Marc Benioff, Alex Karp, 奥巴马 (Barack Obama), 特朗普 (Donald Trump), 1000X Stocks, Google Cloud, Google Cloud Platform (GCP), Azure, Gemini AI, TPU, YouTube, Android

## Video description 【Financial Education】财报季巨头集体“暴雷”？谷歌、微软、AMD，谁是真金白银的AI赢家？ I F’d up

｜谷歌云业务爆发，但烧钱也猛谷歌（GOOGL）最近的财报显示，营收增长了25%，其中云业务营收同比翻倍，从去年同期的151亿美元增至307亿美元，运营利润更是增长了两倍多，达到111亿美元。这表明谷歌在人工智能（AI）领域的投入正在带来实实在在的收益，尤其是其TPU系统销售额贡献显著。然而，谷歌在购置不动产、厂房和设备上的支出高达513亿美元，几乎是其净利润的两倍，这引发了市场对其AI投入回报的担忧。截至发稿，谷歌的远期市盈率约为19倍，低于历史平均的23倍，这或许为长期投资者提供了一个买入机会。

｜ServiceNow业绩不及预期，高估值下风险凸显 ServiceNow（NOW）第三季度调整后每股收益为1美元，略低于市场预期的1.02美元。尽管订阅收入增长了21%，但订阅成本却飙升58%，导致毛利润仅增长10%。销售和营销费用增长20%，研发费用增长27%，运营费用全面失控，最终运营利润同比下降33%，净利润更是暴跌45%。在营收增长21%的情况下，利润却大幅下滑，这让市场对ServiceNow的高估值产生了质疑。目前，ServiceNow的估值过高，且业绩指引平平，未来增长前景不确定。

｜Cheesecake Factory业绩亮眼，政治热点带来意外宣传 Cheesecake Factory（CAKE）的财报表现令人惊喜，营收增长14%，运营利润同比飙升101%，净利润增长92%。公司计划明年开设11至13家“Flower Child”餐厅，远超今年的7家，预计到2030年，“Flower Child”将成为重要的营收和利润增长点，净利润率有望从目前的2%-6%提升至10%以上。此外，美国前总统奥巴马和特朗普围绕Cheesecake Factory的“口水战”，意外为公司带来了巨大的免费宣传，进一步提升了品牌知名度。

｜微软资本支出低于预期，AMD短期业绩或受影响微软（MSFT）第三季度云业务Azure营收同比增长48%，总营收增长19%。然而，微软的资本支出为452亿美元，比分析师预期的500亿美元低了50多亿美元。这主要是因为部分第三方产能交付被推迟，其中约75%的资本支出用于采购英特尔芯片和英伟达（NVDA）GPU。微软资本支出的不及预期，可能意味着芯片公司的短期营收增长面临挑战。对于AMD（AMD）而言，虽然长期增长前景依然乐观，但短期内可能难以出现超预期的营收增长。不过，AMD的利润率和每股收益仍有可能带来惊喜。

接下来建议的操作指引： 1. 谷歌（GOOGL）目前远期市盈率约19倍，低于历史平均23倍，在股价回调后，可考虑逢低买入，长期持有。 2. ServiceNow（NOW）业绩不及预期且费用失控，估值过高，建议规避，或在股价反弹时减仓。 3. Cheesecake Factory（CAKE）业绩强劲，且“Flower Child”业务增长前景广阔，建议长期持有，关注其新店开设进度。

[0:00] 热门股和冷门股表现分化 [1:01] 谷歌、ServiceNow等公司盘后大跌 [2:06] 谷歌、ServiceNow、Cheesecake Factory、AMD财报分析 [4:09] 投资者应关注财报电话会议而非股价波动 [6:12] 谷歌财报：营收增长强劲，云业务爆发 [9:14] 谷歌云业务利润飙升，AI投资回报显现 [11:15] 谷歌AI投资推动搜索增长，但资本支出巨大 [13:19] 谷歌TPU系统成为英伟达芯片的替代方案 [14:19] 谷歌自由现金流下降，但运营现金流强劲 [15:24] 谷歌估值被低估，是买入机会 [17:28] ServiceNow财报：利润大幅下滑，费用失控 [20:30] ServiceNow估值过高，不建议买入 [22:33] Palantir表现优于ServiceNow [25:40] Cheesecake Factory财报：营收利润双增长 [27:43] Cheesecake Factory“Flower Child”业务前景广阔 [29:44] Cheesecake Factory获意外免费宣传 [32:51] 微软财报：云业务强劲，资本支出低于预期 [33:53] 微软资本支出延迟对芯片公司影响 [34:55] AMD短期营收或难超预期，但长期看好

[Source](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xasf6QEw6)

中文简报

【财经科普】财报季巨头集体“爆雷”？谷歌、微软、AMD，谁是真金白银的AI赢家？视频深入剖析了财报季后几大标的的基本面质地与估值逻辑。谷歌凭借云业务翻倍、利润增至三倍及TPU系统的强劲表现验证了AI变现能力，尽管巨额资本开支压制了自由现金流，但估值回落至19倍远期市盈率构成了绝佳买点；ServiceNow则因成本费用全面失控导致利润断崖式暴跌，主讲人果断看空并转向Palantir与Salesforce。此外，Cheesecake Factory凭借超预期的利润爆发和“Flower Child”概念扩张确立了十年长牛逻辑，而微软因交付推迟导致的资本开支低于预期虽对AMD短期营收带来压制，却不改AMD作为2027年最具爆发力万亿市值巨头的长期前景。谷歌云业务迎来爆发式增长，第三季度营收同比翻倍至307亿美元，运营利润飙升至111亿美元；但单季度不动产与设备资本支出高达513亿美元引发市场对现金流的担忧，盘后回调使其远期市盈率降至约19倍。 (10:00) ServiceNow第三季度调整后每股收益不及预期，订阅成本激增58%且研发与营销费用全面失控，导致经营利润同比重挫33%、净利润下滑45%，高估值逻辑遭遇重创。 (17:28) Cheesecake Factory交出“A+级”亮眼财报，单季营收同比增长14%，运营利润翻倍飙升101%；旗下健康餐饮品牌Flower Child加速拓店，预计将推动公司长线净利润率提升至10%以上。 (25:40) 微软Azure云业务维持48%的高速增长，但本季度452亿美元资本支出因芯片及第三方产能交付延期而低于预期，这也预示着AMD等芯片供应商短期营收可能难以交出超预期亮眼表现。 (32:51)

Reading summary

主讲人复盘近期科技与消费板块财报指出，市场呈现冰火两重天的极端分化，投资者不应仅凭股价短期涨跌判断基本面，而应穿透至成本管控、AI 商业化变现与真实利润率展开长线布局。穿透短期价格波动与财报会计杂音 (4:09) 许多散户容易落入仅看盘面红绿便臆断业绩好坏的陷阱，忽视了财报内部的细分指标与业绩电话会中的经营实质。以 Alphabet 为例，该季度总营收同比大增 25% 且破千亿美元，成本与费用增速控制在 22%，带动经营利润同比跃升 30% 至 405 亿美元。尽管表面上净利润与摊薄 EPS 分别同比下滑 24% 和 26%，但该下滑主要是由 82 亿美元的未实现证券投资账面亏损导致，去年同期则为 12.7 亿美元账面收益。排除非经营性会计干扰后，其核心业务执行力依旧扎实。谷歌 AI 变现爆发与巨额资本开支隐忧 (8:30) Alphabet 正以切实的数据证明其 AI 商业化兑现能力：Google Cloud 季度营收翻倍至 307 亿美元，经营利润更是从 36 亿美元激增至 111 亿美元，同比增速超 3 倍；搜索查询量亦创下近五年来的最高同比增幅。此外，自研 TPU 芯片除内用外已向 Anthropic 和甲骨文等外部伙伴供货，形成对英伟达 GPU 的高性价比替代。然而，争议主要集中于巨额资本开支。公司单季物业和设备采购支出高达 513 亿美元，接近净利润的两倍，导致单季自由现金流跌入负区间。即便如此，在经历盘后回调导致自高点回落约 30%、远期市盈率降至 19 倍左右（低于四年中位数 23 倍）的背景下，主讲人仍将其视为具备吸引力的逢低加仓窗口。软件板块剧烈分化：ServiceNow 对比 Palantir (17:28) 与谷歌相比，ServiceNow 展现了高估值下的经营失衡风险。该季度订阅营收同比增长 21%，并未出现支撑高估值所需的超预期爆发，而订阅成本激增 58%，导致毛利润仅增 10%。在研发与营销费用同比分别膨胀 27% 和 20% 的挤压下，其经营利润同比暴跌 33%，净利润重挫 45%。主讲人反思自身未及时清仓的失误，并计划彻底转向费控良好、AI 变现扎实且对同行展现竞争优势的 Palantir，以及估值预期已被压至低位的 Salesforce。餐饮黑马利润翻倍与品牌扩张逻辑 (25:40) 在传统消费领域，Cheesecake Factory 交付了远超预期的成绩单。得益于极强的经营杠杆与成本锁死，公司单季营收同比增长 14%，经营利润同比暴增 101%，净利润大涨 92%，摊薄每股收益攀升 80%。管理层正积极打造以高利润率著称的健康概念餐饮“Flower Child”作为第二增长曲线，计划明年新增 11 至 13 家门店并逐步在全美复制，有望在中长期推动母公司净利润率向 10% 以上靠拢。此外，奥巴马与特朗普近期围绕该餐厅的互撕言论，客观上为品牌带来了巨额免费曝光。微软云增速稳健与 AMD 长期增长潜力 (32:51) 微软财报呈现扎实的云业务基本面，Azure 营收同比大涨 48%，带动整体营收增长 19%。不过，其单季资本支出和融资租赁总计为 452 亿美元，虽同比增长 30%，但因第三方产能与英伟达芯片交付延迟，较华尔街预期的 500 亿多美元出现了逾 50 亿美元缺口。综合云巨头资本开支推演，主讲人预计 AMD 即将发布的财报在整体营收端难现颠覆性惊喜，但超预期大概率会体现在利润率与每股收益的提升上。主讲人做出明确预测，认为 AMD 将是 2027 年所有万亿美元市值俱乐部中爆发力和增速最强的核心标的，建议利用短期财报情绪引发的回调积极布局。本期复盘的核心逻辑在于区分由非经常性会计调整引发的情绪性杀跌（如谷歌）与因成本失控引发的实质性恶化（如 ServiceNow）。不过，巨头超大规模资本开支对自由现金流的侵蚀程度，以及能否在中长期持续产生相匹配的现金回报，仍是市场未来需持续验证的核心不确定性。

精炼阅读摘要

节目主讲人认为，当前美股呈现出极端的结构性分化，投资者切忌仅凭盘后股价涨跌评判财报优劣；透过财务细节可见，谷歌与微软正将AI转化为实质性云业务与利润增长，而费用失控的软件股则面临估值重估。散户思维陷阱与基本面研判逻辑 (4:09) 主讲人指出，当前美股市场呈现出“煎饼翻面（flapjack flipper）”式的极端分化行情，强势股持续狂飙，弱势股深陷泥潭。散户投资者普遍存在盯盘成瘾的误区，容易仅凭盘后股价的短期红绿波动草率定性财报成败，误将股价回落当作业绩暴雷。正确的分析路径要求投资者穿透短期市场噪音，研读第一手财务报表并追踪业绩电话会，以判断核心投资逻辑是否依然成立。深入拆解财报数据与管理层指引，能为估值模型的动态修正提供定性依据。当企业基本面成长跑赢先前的估值假设时，适度调高营收增速即可重新推导长线回报预期，进而判断股价回调究竟是基本面恶化还是错杀带来的布局良机。谷歌核心运营强劲与会计扰动拆解 (6:12) 针对盘后一度下挫近30%的谷歌（Alphabet），主讲人分析其底层运营依然扎实：单季营收突破1000亿美元，录得25%的同比增幅；经营开支增速（22%）低于营收增速，带动营业利润同比增长30%至405亿美元。净利润同比下滑24%以及摊薄EPS下滑26%，完全是由GAAP规则下未实现股权证券投资造成的82亿美元“其他费用”账面亏损所致，与上一财年同期的127亿美元账面收益形成剧烈反差，属于非经营性扰动。在核心驱动力方面，谷歌云（Google Cloud）营收同比暴增103%，从上一财年同期的15.1亿美元跃升至30.7亿美元，营业利润更是由约36亿美元激增逾三倍至111亿美元。此外，搜索查询量创下五年来的最高同比增速，且自研TPU芯片不仅支持Anthropic部署多达100万枚，还通过甲骨文等渠道外售。尽管单季51.3亿美元的重资产资本支出压低了当季自由现金流，但主讲人认为其远期市盈率压缩至约19倍（低于四年中位数23倍），呈现出极具吸引力的长线买点。软件板块分化：NOW控费失衡与替代标的 (17:28) 与谷歌形成鲜明反差的是企业软件巨头ServiceNow（NOW）。在股价经历大幅拉升、估值处于高位之际，公司第三季度调整后EPS录得1.00美元，逊于预期的1.02美元；订阅营收虽增长21%，但总营收成本暴增56%，研发支出增长27%，营销费用增长20%，导致营业利润同比重挫33%，净利润断崖式下滑45%。这种费用全面失控且前瞻指标疲软的格局，促使主讲人对未能在盘前完全清仓深表懊悔，并决定彻底退出该股。资金配置层面，主讲人更看好估值预期已被充分打低的Salesforce（CRM），以及费用控制良好、AI商业化兑现迅速的Palantir（PLTR）。在主讲人看来，Palantir没有出现费用侵蚀毛利的失衡状态，正在高成长软件赛道中展现出统治级的竞争优势，是更为优质的资金承接标的。餐饮黑马爆单与巨头资本开支推演 (25:40) 在非科技板块中，Cheesecake Factory（CAKE）交付了亮眼财报，单季营收同比增长14%，营业利润翻倍（同比暴增101%），净利润大涨92%。主讲人将其旗下健康轻食品牌Flower Child视为具备极高利润增厚能力的第二增长曲线，其明年开店计划将提速至11至13家，有望推动公司远期净利润率迈向10%以上。近期两党政治人物关于白宫装潢的隔空争论，亦为该品牌带来了海量免费曝光，奠定了其长线扩张基础。科技板块链条上，微软Azure云业务同比增长48%，而452亿美元的季度资本支出低于市场预期的500多亿美元。主讲人推测，支出缺口主要源于英伟达芯片及第三方产能的延期交付，而非需求降温。结合各大科技巨头的支出表现，主讲人推演AMD即将公布的财报在营收端或许难以带来颠覆性暴击，但盈利质量和利润率有望超预期，并预计AMD将在2027年展现出万亿美元市值企业中最强的成长爆发力。本期节目总结指出，财报季的短期价格反应往往夹杂大量情绪噪音与会计失真；投资者应聚焦于具备真金白银AI变现能力的基础设施巨头与严格控费的成长标的，警惕高估值下费用失控的企业软件泡沫。

Source quotes

[22:33] Host: Palantir 的费用并没有彻底失控、更没有远远超出其毛利润和营收增速；在我看来，Palantir 正在完全压制那些所谓的同赛道高成长竞争对手。 [10:00] Host: If there's somebody that's actually benefiting from in a massive way from, AI I mean, Google's benefiting about the best of any company in the world outside of obviously NVIDIA, right? [17:28] Host: You can't sugarcoat this. This is trash out of ServiceNow. [12:50] Host: There's just so much money being spent on chips right now for the next few years. You need it all. And one of the big chip beneficiaries will end up being Google as well. [4:09] Host: What I find a lot of times with a lot of retail investors is they will just look at the stock price reaction. They won't even dig into the numbers or listen to conference calls or anything with these companies. [30:00] Host: Thank you very much, President Obama. And thank you very much, President Trump, for just even engaging in this conversation because it gets everybody talking about the Cheesecake Factory. And they're the ones who ends up benefiting from this. [4:09] Host: You can put in the work and you can have insane success or you don't put in the work and you don't have success. It's really as simple as that.

Original transcript

[0:00] We call this stock market the flapjack flipper. Look at this. The hot remains hot. AMD up another $46,000 here today. Now up almost $1.2 million on this position. The public count up 418%. SoFi remains red hot right now. That one's up another 4.5% here today. Now up 85% on that one. RH is insanely hot right now. Look at this one up another 3% here today. Now up almost 17% on this position, already up to a five-figure gain on RH. And this is like a brand new stock in the public account. That stock is red hot right now, right? Meanwhile, the cold is remaining cold. Meta is cold as ice right now. Oh, the stock is cold. Down again here today, another 7,700 bucks. Nike's been cold. Nike's always cold. I mean, that one's in the freezer, right? The Flix continues to be cold. That went down almost 15% now in the public count. And tax loss harvesting hasn't even really hit yet. You know that's coming in Netflix because so many Wall Streeters are in that one and down big. And they're going to be looking for a reason to sell in the last month or two of trading for this year Right Celsius remains cold as well but that one has insane long upside right look at google mcdougal google mcdougal ladies and gentlemen is now officially a crash it almost 30 from its all-time high it hit earlier this year man it is just absolutely in a crash getting hammered again after hours here today service now just getting pounded this one down off a cliff. I mean, just, and it was down already big in the trading session. It was down 3%, but then tack on another, who knows how much it'll be down 15 to 20% after hours. Ooh, that one's brutal, right? ServiceNow, this is one I just took profits on in the public count just a few days ago. And I covered that here on the channel, right? And I covered it inside the private group as well, but I still went into these earnings with a six figure position, $100,000, up 52% on this one. I can tell you after tomorrow, not going to be up 52% on this one. Google McDougal, this is one I took big profits on as well. But this one has done very, very well for us Over doubled our money on good old Google McDougal CRM Salesforce that one also down big after hours on the back of ServiceNow So we definitely have to talk about CRM and what going on there That one we up about on so far The Cheesecake Factory So this one kind of surprised folks here today because they report a shock and awe quarter. I mean, just an absolute unbelievable quarter. A plus great. Okay. And stock didn't go up. Went down two and a half percent. And people are like, what the heck, man? It's a shock and awe and it's down two and a half percent, right? AMD is getting pulled down after hours as well. So do be aware of that. Okay. In today's video, four core subjects we're going to get into. One, Google stock. Is it a buy or is it a sell after these earnings? Service now, buy or sell. What are we doing here? Okay. What's going on there? Three, cake. Same thing. Buy or sell. Four, we'll talk about what service Now's results, Google's results, Microsoft's results, obviously Meta results. What does all this mean for AMD stock going forward? And where is this stock headed? And so, yeah, a lot to get into here today. I appreciate you all for joining me. If you haven't already done so, I just need you to do one thing real quick for me. Just hit that little thumbs up icon. Make that little thumbs up button glow That would mean the world to me No one too cool to do that No one too cool to do that Also make sure you subscribed to the channel We are now at 953 subscribers on the channel I appreciate each and every one of you for being here. I want to give you guys a piece of advice. Let me give you a piece of advice. Very important. I give you this piece of advice before we get rolling here. Listen, you want to make a lot of money in the stock market? I'm going to tell you how. It's definitely not through just focusing on whatever the stock price moves are for these earnings. Because what I find a lot of times with a lot of retail investors is they will just look at the stock price reaction. They won't even dig into the numbers or listen to conference calls or anything with these companies. They're just going to go to the dopamine page on thousandxtalks.com. Dopamine page, that's where you create all your watch lists and stock prices go up and down, up and down right and that's what a lot of people really focus on and they're just like in this mindset of like oh my stock went down so their earnings are bad it's a bad stock or my stock is going up so that means I picked a good stock and it's good right and it's a lot more in depth than that right where your focus should really be is not just on is the stock price going up or [5:00] But it's really on listening to the earnings calls, okay? You need to be listening to all these earnings calls of all these companies, especially if it's a company you think you want to own or it's a company you own. Listen to the earnings calls because that's going to give you a ton of information on if you're on the right track with that investment or not, okay? Additionally, you're going to learn so much about the business and then you're going to go ahead and be able to either alter your projections if need be. So let's say things are a lot better than what you anticipated, right? when you look into that earnings report and you listen to a conference call right you might be able to take up your projections so you know let's say through thousandxtox.com let's say you have your projections for amd stock or whatever stock it is okay google mcdougall right and you're like oh man the business is even better than i anticipated i need to up my projections for revenue growth by one percent blah blah blah blah blah right and then that's going to be able to spit you out if that stock's a buy or not right um or basically it's going to be able to spit you out like what your projected return will be over time right and so that's the way you need to be playing this game you need to be really focused over here with all these earnings reports coming out and not just and being like, "Oh, stock price down, bad. Stock price up, good." It's much, much more complicated than that. And you've got to actually put in the work, right? You can put in the work and you can have insane success or you don't put in the work and you don't have success. It's really as simple as that. Now, you want access to 1000XTalks.com. We've got a massive sale coming up here. 4000X, the entire product suite that I use on a day in and day out basis, given that entire product. entire thing the education portion everything for a massive sale on halloween if you want access to that that will be the pinned comment down there today you can click on that put in your name email and or phone number we'll send over the deal as soon as it drops and we'll send your steel membership card to your house uh once you go ahead and join us in there okay already google mcdougal buy or sell okay listen google mcdougal what 25% revenue growth? That's... Amazing. For a company that's as established as Google is, for a company that's doing $100 billion plus a quarter in REV, Crazy to be putting up that sort of growth. Bravo to Google. I mean, what an absolute beast. What an absolute beast. Now, Google's business models is extensive. We know about Google search. We know about Gemini. We know about YouTube. We know about Android. We know about the cloud side of the business, and they got multiple other businesses as well. It's unbelievable, right? Cost of revenue up 24%, so that was less than revenue, so that's good. R&D was a little high there, 36%. Sales and marketing, 22%. We'll take that. G&A, they actually brought that down 17% year over year. That's a huge win. Total cost and expenses up 22%, so if your revenue is up 25%, right, which is always a much bigger number than cost and expenses, and your cost and expenses is up 22%, that means your income from operations is going to explode higher. we witnessed here with Google McDougal income from operations up 30% year over year to $40.5 billion from 31 to, I mean, that's incredible, right? Now, There was a thing here that made Google's net income and EPS look worse than it really should have been. And that was, if you look at, there's an other expense here of $8.2 billion. This line item usually moves around like all over the place, right? So if you look at the same quarter last year, they had a $12.7 billion gain. A lot of this can be, you know, stock prices and their marketable securities go up and down in the short-term time period. not losses and gains, but they have to do that for accounting reasons, for generally accepting accounting principles. And so basically this is like a one-off scenario here where, you know, it makes the... the profitability of the company look less so when you look at net income it looks like it's down 24% year over year and diluted eps down 26% but once again that's mainly for the one-off i still grade them an a minus it's still a very very good report um other than just that one-off scenario there but like i said the one-offs you can't get uh to you know up or down in regards to that and uh this is where things get really important so the business everybody cares about by far and away the most Google Cloud. Look at this. Revenue over doubled on a year-over-year basis from $15.1 billion in the same quarter last year to $30.7 billion in this quarter they just reported. That's unbelievable growth for a business that large. Their cloud business is just booming right now. Additionally, it's not like it's like, oh, the revenue is just going up and [10:00] There's no profitability there. They're just losing a bunch of money. No. Look at the operating income of the Google Cloud business. It over three X year over year from three, about 3.6 billion to $11.1 billion. So the, the revenue is booming for that business, but the profitability is booming even way more, right? So the moral of the story is here. If there's somebody that's actually benefiting from in a massive way from, AI I mean, Google's benefiting about the best of any company in the world outside of obviously NVIDIA, right? And the memory chip stocks like that's incredible. Incredible, right? Now, there's a couple of key things that occurred here that I want to show you guys. This is very, very important. Look at this. Google Cloud delivered record growth as revenues increased 103%, led by strong growth in Google Cloud Platform across enterprise AI infrastructure and enterprise AI solutions, as well as core GCP services. TPU system sales were also a meaningful contributor to revenue growth. OK, TPU systems is very important. In fact, Our year-over-year growth in queries, it's the highest it's been in the last five years. So that's incredible as well, right? So we have, you know... The AI investments are – it's still debatable if all the spend is going to end up being a lot more than – or what they're going to get back for the spend essentially, the return. It's still a debate if it's going to be a lot more than what they're spending. So let's say they're spending $200 billion this year. Is a return $400 billion, $600 billion, $800 billion over the coming years? Or is it $100 billion, right? paying off in several different ways. But this is where you get into a real negative situation here with Google McDougal. So the company had net income, remember, about $26.4 billion. Now, if it wasn't for that $8.2 billion hit, you know, it would have been what? $34 billion, $35 billion, right? But still at the end of the day, net income was $20.4 billion, $26.4 billion, right? But look at property, plant and equipment. We're looking at the statement of cash flows now at this point in time, right? So purchases of property and equipment was $51.3 billion. So nearly 2x the amount of net income the company had they spent on just property and equipment. Right? So that's serious dough, like serious dough. And that's once again where you get into a debate on, you know, is Google going to get all this money back? You know, and we'll see, we'll see. but um man that's a lot right now if you want to pause the video right here this could be an interesting part to pause the video if you need to okay and i just want to bring up these tpus these tensor processing units because people You might hear about this and it's like, okay, Google's selling these TPUs. Um... you know why would somebody go with something like that versus nvidia chips right because obviously everybody's spending so much on nvidia chips right So, They're a cost-effective alternative. NVIDIA AI chips are scarce and expensive, making Google's custom-built application-specific integrated circuits a cheaper, more accessible way to scale infrastructure. Additionally, direct availability. Google has expanded beyond just letting companies rent TPUs inside Google Cloud, now selling or licensing them directly to major AI leaders. like Anthropic, which plans to deploy up to 1 million TPUs, and partnering with rival cloud providers like Oracle. So these TPUs are going to definitely be a huge factor. for future years and remember there's so much money being spent on ships right now and over the next few years There's enough to go around. There's enough to go around to obviously NVIDIA, to AMD, even Intel, and certainly companies like Google or Google. you know, positioned to make a lot of money as well. I would say even Amazon. Broadcom, there's just so much money being spent on chips right now for the next few years. You need it all. And one of the big chip beneficiaries will end up being Google as well. Right. So just something to kind of keep in mind there. Now, we're looking at the charts feature on 1000xstocks.com here, right? This is exactly what you want to see from revenue growth over time. But what I really want you to focus on is this chart right here for Google, Google McDougal, 'cause this really, this is on a trailing 12 month basis. Really shows you what's going on with Google, right? Free cash flow keeps falling and if you were [15:00] Pull up a quarterly, it's really ugly, right? It's like negative now. But the operating cash flow continues to pile up for the company. So that's where you get this weird divergence with a stock like Google right now, where it's like, okay, yeah, their operating cash flow is higher than it's ever been, and it keeps climbing, right? But at the end of the day, they're spending everything they have and some right out the door on, you know, obviously all this property, plant, equipment. Now, here's the thing. If you want to know, is Google stock a buy, you want to look at something. Obviously, we can run through all the growth rates we did, 25% revenue growth, and the cloud business over doubled, and the profitability over tripled. I mean, it's incredible. But what's the price you're paying? So on 1,000x here, we have the valuation over time. This four-year median for historical P-E ratio for Google McDougal is about a 23. right now based upon the after-hour action in google and where profitability should be over the next year i would say the forward p on the stock about 19 right now right about 19 historical p on the stock about 23 so i would make an argument that this stock is pretty significantly undervalued even before the earnings came out But I would say after the earnings have come out now and the stock is obviously crashing, I would say it's actually pretty significantly undervalued. And this one actually sets up for a great buying opportunity. And so me personally, I obviously saw the stock was down, and my first thought was, dang, man, I should have sold the rest of my shares. But then I went through the results, and I said, oh, if anything, this stock's actually a buy. It's not a sell. And I'm actually thankful to be a shareholder of the stock, even though the stock's going down. I just looked at the numbers across the board and there's no question like Google's a stock you want to continue to be in. And, you know, I look at any dip in the stock is a long term buying opportunity. That doesn't mean you can't go down more in the short term. Just understand big tech stocks, you know, this one's down about 30 percent from its highs. They can fall 40, 50 percent. You never know. Right. With these sorts of stocks. So this is something to keep in mind. I mean, heck, look at Meta. meta in 2022 that was a 70 fall i not saying google going down 70 percent but just understand 30 40 and 50 percent falls for even these massive tech stocks that happens it happens all the time actually uh it even happened at google just a few years ago so just something to kind of keep in mind there but that stock is absolutely a buy okay next one up here now let's talk about this one and the crm and all that and then we'll get into cake and then we'll get into where amd's headed and all that sort of stuff okay so service now here's the thing okay The enterprise company tumbled, obviously, a ridiculous amount. We'll see 20% or whatever, right? Third quarter adjusted profit came in at $1 per share. Consensus estimate was at $1.02, so they slightly missed there. Subscription revenue guidance for the fourth quarter ranged from $4.24 billion to $4.255 billion. The street was at $4.25 billion. Listen, man, you know, this stock was red hot. It was red hot. I mean, it went from $80 to $150, $150 plus going in these earnings. You can't do that. With a stock that's red hot, you can't come in with a rev guide that's roughly in line and an EPS miss Can do that man You got to come in better than that I always tell you I never sugarcoat anything with any of my companies I always going to grade them just as hard as any other companies sometimes even harder You can't sugarcoat this. This is trash out of service now. The rev is good, 21% growth, good, but still that's nothing crazy. They got no big acceleration of revenue going on that makes you You say, oh my gosh, it's way better than we anticipated. 21% is about what you were expecting going into these earnings, right? But look at the expenses for this company, right? Subscription cost of revenues for subscription was up 58%. Total cost of revenue up 56%. So that made gross profit only up 10% on a year-over-year basis, right? Then you had sales and marketing up 20%. So we're talking about 10 full percentage points higher than gross profit was up, right? R&D up 27% for the company year over year. G&A up 11% for the company year over year. So that outstripped gross profit growth as well. Total operating expenses up 22% for the company year over year. Shh, income from operations end up falling 33% because gross profit's only up 10% but then you got all those expenses [20:00] You're right. Income from operations are going to get destroyed. So income from operations down 33%. And so that's the issue here with with, you know, service. Now, it's not like it's like one line item is an expense problem. It's all these expense line items are a problem. Oh, man. Net income fell 45% for the company year over year. Dilute EPS fell 44%. I mean, you know, if you're growing top line 21% and your bottom line is falling 44%, right? no bueno no bueno especially when you take into account like you know it wasn't just because of some one-off thing it's one thing if it's like a google situation where some one-off item right your investments you know changed in valuation or something like that and threw your eps off this is like this is a real problem with service now like the whole thing right so here's the deal with surface now is a stock a buy in my opinion it's not worth it man it's not worth it I should have gotten out I knew it I knew it I sold some of this stock recently and I was looking at the price and I was like man I need to just get out of this one and I freaking didn't do it I wanted out I missed out and getting out I going to probably still sell the rest it just now I going to sell it such a lower price I still make great money on the stock right Let be very crystal clear about that The stock not going down 50 tomorrow but I could have made so much more money if I had just gotten out of all my shares like I wanted to. I mean, it's just disappointing. It's disappointing because the numbers are disappointing, but then you even look at the the projected obligations and whatnot, even then those numbers are depressing. There's nothing there that like Bill McDermott, he's talking a big game on the conference calls, every conference call and every interview does like you think, oh, my gosh, this company is going to have the best growth ever. And then you get to the results and the results are just disappointing. Right. There's nothing there that makes you say, oh, gosh, it's wow. their growth is really taking off. And the only thing we're seeing taking off, let's be very crystal clear, is their expenses. So he can say this and that, but at the end of the day, we're looking at the growth rates and they're just exactly what we expected. There's nothing as far as upside there, but the expenses look way worse than we anticipated. And that makes for an ugly situation with now man very ugly situation right And I also look out there and I say I need to have my money in the best stocks possible I got multiple stocks that are incredible opportunities in this market, right? I don't know if you guys have seen some of these videos I put out recently. This one, early buyers of this one stock, life-changing. This is the next millionaire maker. That one's got 163,000 views so far when I came out with last week. This one from three weeks ago, seven stocks to buy before Halloween. I mean, there's a lot of opportunities that I look for out there in the market that are very attractive. And when I look at service now, I'm just disappointed, man. Expense is out of control. Nothing with the revenue is making me say like, whoa, we're taking off, man, like a rocket ship. And it's just – so the bottom line is here, I just want to be in Salesforce and that's it. because at least with Salesforce, we got low expectations. The problem with ServiceNow, it trades at a very high valuation with very high expectations. And then they're not coming in with anything exciting. So if I want to be in a company, I'd rather be in Salesforce. And also I am a believer much more in Benioff leading his business model long term than Billy Boy Like Bill a good CEO He done a good job with service now over the years right But he talks a big game and he just not backing it up He's just not backing it up with the numbers, in my opinion. You know, you can't come in with revenue guidance exactly where everybody was expecting. That's just disappointing, man. You know, for a company with the expenses going as out of control, if their expenses weren't checked, this would be a whole different situation because they'd be like, okay, expenses in check, revenue growing 20% plus, banger. That's not the situation. We're getting expenses out of control across the whole company, across the whole dang thing. In revenue, that's just like, okay. So the moral of the story is here, CRM will get pulled down tomorrow as well on the back of this. It's going to pull down all these sorts of stocks. But I also look out there and say, Look at Palantir. Look at the numbers Alex Karp's putting up with the Palantir team. They're not using excuses. They're benefiting from the massive AI wave. They're ready to put up the numbers now. Why is now not? Why is surface now not? Why are they just coming in with these... [25:00] Numbers. That's not happening with Palantir. Palantir doesn't have expenses completely out of control that are way outstripping its gross profit and revenue. So it looks to me like Palantir, is you know, dominating these other, you know, supposed high growth competitors. So Palantir is just like operating on a different level, man. And so that's where I'm at. I want to be in Palantir. I want to be in Salesforce. This service now, you know, it's made me a bunch of money in the short term. I want out of it. Not to say it's a bad stock long term, but I just got other stocks that once again are just going to make me, in my opinion, a lot more money. And So yeah, that's that. Next one up here, cake. Let's talk about this one. This is buy or sell. And then we'll talk about AMD and what all these results mean for AMD stock moving forward. Okay. So... I don't know if you guys get to see the video I put on the reaction channel last night. Reaction channel, if you don't watch it, it's called Jeremy LeFay makes money. That video has about 90,000 views so far, put out 23 hours ago. But in that video, I talked a lot about cake. So if you want a lot of cake talk, plus I talked about a ton of other subjects that were really important in that, including some of the best opportunities in the market I find right now, I definitely watch that video. But here's the deal. The numbers, A+. A plus report from Cake. Revenue growth came in way better than anticipated. Margins came in way better than anticipated. Profitability exploding for the company. Income from operations was up 101% year over year. That's ridiculous. Off of a 14% revenue climb. I mean, it's just ridiculous. Net income up 92%. DUDPS up 80%. Just ridiculous. we were talking inside the private group, And one of our private group members talking about 14% revenue growth is crazy. Wasn't expecting that. I said, me either. They're way ahead. of even what I thought. I almost thought it was a typo at first. And then, like, legit, like, all of a sudden, I've seen, like, 14% revenue growth? That's got to be a typo. For cake? No, it wasn't a typo. I was like, what? That's ridiculous, right? Now, additionally, I put this in the private stock group's Discord chat because I listened to a conference call. And on the conference call, they kind of wanted a little bit of more like guidance around how many flower childs. And management said they're expecting 11 to 13 flower childs to open next year. And that's versus about seven, around seven this year. Right. I said, I would prefer even more. However, it's a step in the right direction. I said by 2030 flower, flower child should be a, you know, a huge revenue driver, margin driver, and earnings per share driver for the overall company. Not saying it doesn't move things now, but based on locations in 2030, it should be quite substantial. And, um, That's super exciting because flower trough is so margin accretive in that. You know, when you look out for this company a few years from now, I mean, you could look at a company that's margins are significantly better than what you're seeing right now. We could be talking about a company by 2030 that has net income margins of 10 percent plus. Right. And versus a company that we've been kind of used to have a net income margins of two to five percent or two to six percent. And now we could be talking about 10 percent plus net income margins looking out a few years. that continues to pile up as future years go along. So when I look at the cake. I say this one's an absolute hold into the 2030s. There's just no reason to move out of this one. You've got numbers coming in way better than anticipated. You've got a clear roadmap. It's not just like they're not worried about a sales pitch like some of these companies are trying to sell shareholders on. Like we might do something someday and it's going to be grand, blah, blah, blah. No, no, no. It's very crystal clear. Like the game is very simple for them, right? Continue to come out with menu innovation as they do, right? Go up on price every once in a while on different products, right? Keep your expenses in check. Continue to open lots of flower childs in North Italia's across the whole United States, as well as the other concepts. Execute well on those. Bang, you know, you've got a 10 year plus roadmap of growth ahead for this company. And it's crystal clear how they can achieve it. And when you got that one of those sorts of situations, you just you hold as tight as you can. Right. You know, I take you back to Starbucks back in the day. And obviously, this is not as big of an opportunity as Starbucks was. That was crazy. But if you were buying Starbucks back in the day, like you just needed to buy, buy and hold. Hold as tight as you possibly can. When you got, because it was like clear, like, oh, Starbucks is going to expand across the whole United States of America and international, blah, blah, blah. Right. Same thing with the Chipotle opportunity. Like, you know, if you bought that IPO in 2006, like the idea was just buy more shares as years ticked on and hold. [30:00] Hold them as tight as you possibly can because it was like this was clear this was going to be a concept that could be executed across at least the United States of America. And that's what we look at with Flower Child. They've expanded it to enough major cities now that it's clear it's a massive winner. And so – Same thing with North Italia. And so it's like... Boom, you got it. And so it's just so crystal clear how they'll be able to expand the company and keep growing bigger and bigger. Now, before we move on here and we talk about AMD, You know, I got to talk about this subject because cheesecake is just in the news over the last couple days here. So, you know, I want to give my opinion on this because I know a lot of people want my opinion on this. So former President Barack Obama sparked a viral political feud by comparing President Donald Trump's White House renovations to the Cheesecake Factory while campaigning for Democrats ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Obama mocked Trump's extensive and gold-filled redecorating projects. He's got the White House looking like Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory that's gold everywhere. And Trump's reaction was he called Obama not a smart guy, a lousy president. He said, this isn't a cheesecake factory. Can you believe it? Which is a very successful company. He doesn't like successful companies. So very entertaining back and forth about cheesecake factory between, you know, President Obama and President Trump. You know, and then I guess Besson went to the Cheesecake Factory and got a French dip. I mean, just what an absolute circus. But, you know, that's politics, just an absolute circus. But the moral of the story is here. Thank you very much, President Obama. And thank you very much, President Trump, for just even engaging in this conversation because it gets everybody talking about the Cheesecake Factory. And they're the ones who ends up benefiting from this. I don't think Obama benefits. I don't think the Democrats benefit. I don't think the Republicans and Trump benefit. It's just a silly back and forth. But... A lot of people get talking about the Cheesecake Factory. And it's like in between this feud, And I'm like, this is awesome. Like, this is the best thing ever. Like, so much free publicity. I mean, it's ridiculous, right? Right. Then there was a meme. The official White House on X account joined the fray, posting a Photoshop cheesecake factory menu filled with Trump's political accomplishments. Writing the only thing bigger than the menu is a list of President Trump's accomplishments. So, you know, I don't care if you're Democrat, Republican, you like Obama, you like Trump, whatever. The moral of the story is here, that is a lot of free publicity. Like, we'll take it, man. Take it. They can keep going back and forth. Keep talking about Cheesecake Factory all day, baby. All right, next up here, let's talk about AMD and what all these results that we're getting from these companies mean for AMD stock moving forward. came out after the bell, their cloud growth was very strong as well. It looks not strong compared to Google McDougal's numbers, but it's still very strong. Azure cloud revenue jumped 48% for the company year over year. So that's a very strong number, right? Microsoft's overall revenue grew 19% year over year. The software giant has rapidly been building out data center infrastructure to meet artificial intelligence demand, while also maintaining positive free cash flow unlike fellow hyperscalers. Microsoft reported $45.2 billion worth of CapExs. and finance leasing during the quarter, up about 30% from a year earlier, but analysts had expected over 50 billion. So this was a weird dynamic here. with Microsoft where CapEx actually came $5 billion plus under what Wall Street was expecting. And so, That could be seen as like a scary thing for all the companies that are like, you know, benefiting from this, all the chip companies. Right now, here's what happened. So some third party capacity deliveries were expected in Q1 and they were delayed. Okay. Around 75% of CapEx are now tied to short lived assets such as Intel chips and NVIDIA graphic processing units. Up from about 66% the past three quarters. So the moral of the story is here, my guess is, some NVIDIA chips were expected to be in that quarter. Now, keep in mind, it might not be NVIDIA. It could be Intel. It could be AMD. It could be, I don't know. Who knows? Who knows? Probably NVIDIA. Like where is the most of this money getting spent is NVIDIA. So there was probably supposed to be some NVIDIA chips some more nvidia chips in the quarter and they were delayed right and so that probably ended up making microsoft's capex not look as high as it maybe should have been right now What does this mean for AMD? Well, Based on looking at Meta's results, Meta's CapEx, looking at Google's CapEx, looking at Microsoft's CapEx, we've got enough of the big dogs that are the big, huge spenders out there. [35:00] now at this point in time. Looking at all those numbers, what this means for... AMD is... It's going to be hard to get a shock and awe on revenue for last quarter, the one they're about to report, or the guidance, okay? Because it doesn't look like anybody is outlandishly spending way more than people thought, okay? Okay. With that being said, remember, we talked about this. The shock and awe can come from many different ways. They can come from margins, they can come from earnings per share. So although I would take the revenue potential shock and awe, off the table right now they should still come in and beat revenue and coming and beat uh the guide for revenue i wouldn't say is shocking all is very probable looking at these companies capex margins and earnings per share is still possible in terms of that one so do keep that in mind right and at the end of the day with a stock like amd you know whether that stock moves up or down in the short term just remember that is the stock Everybody's got to be in in 2027. You know, when it comes to these Wall Streeters like of the trillion dollar boys club, which AMD is just barely out of that right now. But if stock goes up a little bit, it'll be back in the trillion dollar boys club. Right. Of those stocks, this is the most exciting stock to be in in 2027. They're going to have the biggest growth rates of any trillion-dollar-plus company. And so... that's the one man and so any short-term dips end up getting bought and that's what you find with amd time and time again is Every time it sells off, it ends up just getting bought right back up, and it gets hot again. And so... S-A-M-D, right? All right, guys. Appreciate you for joining me as always. Thanks so much for being here. Once again, that Halloween sale for 1000xstocks.com, full access to the product suite is coming up here. Pin the comment down there, put in your name and or email, phone number, and we'll send over the deal as soon as it drops. And that's coming up really quick here, okay? And make sure you guys enjoy that education portion in there as well, plus all the software, okay? All right, guys. Much love and have a great day.