【Daniel Pronk】亚马逊财报大跌估值回落至金融危机水平

浑水摸鱼清源

AI-assisted summary of 【Daniel Pronk】亚马逊财报大跌估值回落至金融危机水平 — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2026-10-30

Key ideas

亚马逊第三季度财报公布后盘后暴跌7%，主因是Prime Day移至第二季度导致三季度营收和广告增速放缓至12%，但剔除该影响后的同口径汇率中性营收增速实际达17%。 (0:00)
AWS业务持续加速，季度营收达460亿美元（同比增长39.3%），积压订单达5780亿美元，官方指引2027和2028年将维持约40%增速，有望在2028年实现近4000亿美元营收。 (5:00)
为抢占AI基础设施先机，公司单季自由现金流为负350亿美元，过去12个月累计举债1300亿美元，成为超大规模云厂商中最激进的资本开支投资者。 (6:06)
盘后抛售后亚马逊估值降至15倍经营现金流，追平2009年金融危机以来的历史最低估值水平，分析师测算保守模型下未来三年年化回报率可超20%。 (17:09)

Detailed notes

## Background 本内容由 Bilibili 频道“浑水摸鱼清源”于 2026 年 10 月 30 日发布，主要搬运并分析了投资博主 Daniel Pronk 对亚马逊最新财报大跌后的深度解读。视频简介指出，亚马逊财报发布后股价盘后跳水主要是受 Prime Day 移至二季度的季节性错位“噪音”干扰，而其 AWS 增长强劲、AI 投入激进且估值已回落至 2009 年金融危机水平，呈现出被市场情绪错杀后的长期买入机会。

## TL;DR 在亚马逊第三季度财报公布后股价暴跌 7% 的背景下，Daniel Pronk 深入拆解了核心基本面，指出总营收与广告增速放缓至 12% 纯粹是 Prime Day 移至二季度的基数错配，正常化后的实际营收增速仍达 17%。与此同时，公司营业利润率创下 13.9% 的历史新高，AWS 营收同比加速增长 39.3% 并给出 2027-2028 年保持 40% 增速的高远指引，未来有望向万亿年营收迈进。尽管为了抢建 AI 算力壁垒导致自由现金流单季失血 350 亿美元并推高负债，但亚马逊当前市现率已降至 15 倍的历史极端低位，保守现金流折现模型显示未来三年年化回报率超 20%，Pronk 因而选择在盘后恐慌中逆势加仓。

## Atmosphere & style 整个分析呈现出一种在市场极端恐慌中保持绝对理性、逆向思考的沉着基调。主讲人通过逐项拆解被华尔街忽视的底层财报数据与财报电话会细节，抽丝剥茧般驱散短期抛售情绪，既直言不讳地指出负自由现金流与巨额举债是不可无限持续的“豪赌”，又以数据模型展现出长期确定性。观看过程如同与一位经验丰富的基本面老手促膝长谈，在暴风雨般的市场下跌中感受到一种底气十足、严谨冷静的逆向投资笃定感。

## Bulletin - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=0s) 亚马逊第三季度财报公布后盘后暴跌7%，主因是Prime Day移至第二季度导致三季度营收和广告增速放缓至12%，但剔除该影响后的同口径汇率中性营收增速实际达17%。 - [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=300s) AWS业务持续加速，季度营收达460亿美元（同比增长39.3%），积压订单达5780亿美元，官方指引2027和2028年将维持约40%增速，有望在2028年实现近4000亿美元营收。 - [06:06](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=366s) 为抢占AI基础设施先机，公司单季自由现金流为负350亿美元，过去12个月累计举债1300亿美元，成为超大规模云厂商中最激进的资本开支投资者。 - [17:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1029s) 盘后抛售后亚马逊估值降至15倍经营现金流，追平2009年金融危机以来的历史最低估值水平，分析师测算保守模型下未来三年年化回报率可超20%。

## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=0s) 市场对财报表层数据的过度惩罚掩盖了核心盈利能力的扩张，单季营业利润创历史新高达到281亿美元，营业利润率提升至13.9%。 - [06:06](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=366s) 第三季度营收和广告业务名义增速放缓至12%是由于Prime Day排期错位造成的统计噪音，第四季度广告增速预计将回升至18%-19%。 - [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=0s) 长期投资者评估亚马逊应聚焦营业利润与经营现金流，其TTM经营现金流同比增长29%至1683亿美元，而当前净利润与自由现金流受大额投入影响已失真。 - [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=300s) AWS给出了极其激进的增长指引，预计2027和2028年均将保持约40%的年化增速，2028年营收预计达到3920亿美元、贡献约1450亿美元营业利润。 - [05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=300s) 管理层提出长期愿景，亚马逊在未来5至10年内有望同时拥有电商零售与AWS两家年营收突破1万亿美元的超大规模业务。 - [06:06](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=366s) 亚马逊年内维持2200亿美元资本开支指引未再追加，但在AI基建领域的大规模投入导致自由现金流深度承压，TTM自由现金流为负470亿美元。 - [06:06](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=366s) 公司流动资产与流动负债基本持平，结合近2000亿美元年经营现金流，短期无流动性危机，但每年新增千亿美元债务的模式长期不可持续，核心取决于AI投资回报率（ROI）。 - [10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=600s) 在数字广告市场竞争中，Meta凭借AI变现保持加速领先，而亚马逊广告业务受排期影响阶段性失速，引发华尔街对未来AI代理绕过传统电商搜索的短期担忧。 - [15:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=909s) AWS积压订单增至5780亿美元（同比增长289%），算力需求远大于供给，导致部分收入尚未完全释放。 - [15:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=909s) 自研Trainium AI芯片目前优先满足内部极度旺盛的算力需求，预计到2027年下半年才会正式开启对外商业销售。 - [17:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1029s) 盘后亚马逊股价对应市值降至2.53万亿美元，以15倍市盈率（P/OCF）交易，远低于2008年以来的历史中位数25.8倍，处于极度被低估区间。 - [19:11](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1151s) 保守DCF模型测算显示，若经营现金流年化增长20%且退出估值仅为17倍P/OCF，未来三年复合年化增长率（CAGR）仍可达到21.6%。 - [20:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1200s) 博主认为当前恐慌性抛售提供了极佳的买入窗口，已在盘后直接加仓，亚马逊继续稳居其个人投资组合第二大重仓股。

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=0s) 盘后恐慌暴跌与被财报“噪音”掩盖的核心基本面

在公布第三季度财报后，亚马逊股价在盘后交易中急跌 7%，而在此之前，该股在常规交易时段已经下跌了 4%。整个财报季呈现出一种极度严苛且非理性的氛围，只要业绩稍有偏差，股票就会遭到无情抛售——ServiceNow 当日暴跌 26%，Fortinet 下跌 20%，英特尔盘后下挫 17%，Reddit 在白天跌去 4% 后盘后再度跳水 16%。然而，亚马逊的业绩根本谈不上差，甚至实质上超出了自身给出的业绩指引。当前市场情绪高度敏感且波动剧烈，但对于能够克服情绪波动并坚持长期视角的投资者来说，这种由非理性抛售带来的震荡往往蕴藏着极佳的买入良机。

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Q3 Revenue Growth Comparison accDescr: Visualizing the impact of Prime Day timing on reported versus like-for-like revenue growth. subgraph Reported ["Reported Growth (With Timing Drag)"] A["Q3 Reported Revenue: +12% YoY"] B["Advertising Growth: +12% YoY"] end subgraph Operational ["Operational Normalization"] C["Prime Day Shifted: Q3 2025 -> Q2 2026"] end subgraph Adjusted ["Like-for-Like Organic Growth"] D["Adjusted Revenue: +17% YoY (FX-neutral)"] E["Normalized Growth Reflects Core Strength"] end C --> Reported C --> Adjusted ```

基于这一判断，Daniel Pronk 透露自己已在盘后交易中直接加仓，亚马逊稳居其投资组合中的第二大重仓股。华尔街当前聚焦于财报中的表层“噪音”并吹毛求疵，但核心数据却展现出极为强韧的盈利扩张能力： - 本季度营业利润达到 281 亿美元，营业利润率提升至 13.9%，刷新了亚马逊历史最高纪录。 - AWS 云业务营收同比增长 39.3%，呈现持续加速态势，折合年化营收规模已达到 1840 亿美元。 - 全公司名义总营收仅增长 12%（汇率中性下增长 13%），主因是去年 Prime Day 在第三季度举行，而今年被移至第二季度，导致可比基数偏高。若剔除 Prime Day 错配影响，在同口径汇率中性下，营收实际增速达 17%。 - 分部表现方面，北美业务销售额增长 6%，但营业利润达到 87 亿美元，同比暴增 81%；国际业务销售额增长 5%；AWS 季度营收达 460 亿美元，营业利润同比激增 56%。 - 过去 12 个月（TTM）经营现金流达到 1683 亿美元，同比增长 29%。

Daniel Pronk 对短期市场的过度反应评价道：“For Amazon, especially right now, I believe that earnings and free cash flow are quite literally meaningless.” 他强调，长期投资者评估亚马逊的核心支柱应当是其营业利润与经营现金流的持续高复合增长。

[05:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=300s) 隐藏彩蛋：AWS 未来指引与万亿营收蓝图

在深入拆解财报细节时，Daniel Pronk 挖掘出了一个极少被市场热议的“复活节彩蛋”（Easter egg）：亚马逊对 AWS 给出了极其激进的长期增长路线图。官方预计 AWS 在 2027 年和 2028 年将保持约 40% 的年化营收增速。按目前推算，AWS 有望在 2026 年底实现 2000 亿美元的年化营收，这意味着其营收在 2027 年将达到约 2800 亿美元，到 2028 年将膨胀至 3920 亿美元——相当于在短短两年内实现营收翻倍。

由于 AWS 目前维持着高达 37% 的运营利润率，若 2028 年营收达到 3920 亿美元，仅云业务板块单独贡献的营业利润就将达到约 1450 亿美元。随着高利润率的 AWS 在公司总营收中的权重不断增加，亚马逊全公司的综合利润率将被持续推高。更令人震撼的是管理层在电话会中的远景展望：商业史上从未出现过年营收达 1 万亿美元的企业，而亚马逊在未来 5 到 10 年内可能同时诞生两家万亿美元企业——其电商零售业务与 AWS 云计算业务均具备突破 1 万亿美元年收入的潜力。

对于坚定的长期持有者而言，仅仅是预想到 AWS 在 2036 年前后创造 1 万亿美元营收的前景，就足以证明当下的估值极度便宜。Daniel Pronk 坦言：“When I think long-term, this thing still looks like it is a steal today, and I am pretty shocked that the market is so willing to just tank the stock so quickly.”

[06:06](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=366s) 四季度指引、广告业务异动与现金流透支之谜

进入第四季度业绩指引，亚马逊预计净销售额将在 2400 亿至 2470 亿美元之间，对应同比增速为 12% 至 16%；预计营业利润在 285 亿至 335 亿美元之间，营业利润率保持在 12% 至 13.5% 的高位。针对三季度广告业务增速回落至 12% 的质疑，管理层解释这同样归咎于 Prime Day 促销时点的搬移，导致大量广告预算提前在二季度消耗；步入四季度，广告业务增速预计将重回 18% 至 19% 左右的高双位数区间（high teens），届时将呈现出更具参考价值的可比数据。同时，公司维持了全年 2200 亿美元的资本开支指引，并未在 2026 年底进一步追加，消除了资本支出无限失控的担忧。

但在现金流与资本结构端，财报展现出了极为激进且具争议的一面。积极的迹象在于，亚马逊过去 12 个月的股权激励（SBC）减少了约 2 亿美元，是同类大型云厂商（Hyperscalers）中罕见能主动压降股权稀释成本的企业；同时单季经营现金流录得 424 亿美元，同比增长 19%（年初至今增长 34%）。然而，为了全力抢占 AI 基础设施先机，资本开支的爆发导致自由现金流呈现巨额失血： - **单季度数据**：自由现金流为负 350 亿美元，当季新增发债 480 亿美元。 - **年初至今数据（YTD）**：自由现金流净流失 620 亿美元，累计举债 1150 亿美元。 - **过去 12 个月（TTM）**：自由现金流为负 470 亿美元，总举债规模高达 1300 亿美元。

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Amazon AI Infrastructure Aggressive Expansion accDescr: Capital allocation trade-off between debt financing and potential ROI on AI infrastructure. subgraph Inputs ["Aggressive Capital Deployment"] A["TTM Raised Debt: $130 Billion"] B["TTM Operating Cash Flow: $168.3 Billion"] end subgraph Engine ["Capex & Free Cash Flow"] C["Aggressive AI Infrastructure Capex"] D["TTM Free Cash Flow: -$47 Billion"] end subgraph Outcomes ["Long-Term Asymmetric Outcomes"] E["High AI ROI: Generates Massive Scale & Market Dominance"] F["Low AI ROI: Trapped with Heavy Debt Service & Sunk Assets"] end Inputs --> Engine Engine --> Outcomes ```

在审视资产负债表时，Daniel Pronk 指出，亚马逊目前的流动资产与流动负债大致持平（流动比率约为 1），加之底层每年能产生近 2000 亿美元的经营现金流，其短期流动性毫无危机。目前公司长期负债规模为 1730 亿美元，相较于其巨大的盈利体量而言整体仍在可控范围内。不过，每年新增发债 1000 亿美元的模式绝不可能无限制持续下去。亚马逊是目前所有超大规模云巨头中最激进的豪赌者，心甘情愿承担极端的负自由现金流以换取 AI 基建壁垒。正如 Daniel Pronk 剖析指出的那样：“I believe this shows us that Amazon is the most aggressive investor out of the hyperscalers, and they are the company willing to go the most negative in free cash flow, which I actually do kind of like as long as the opportunity for building out AI infrastructure does exist and will produce a high ROI.” 这种策略虽然令分析师如坐针毡，但一旦高投入兑现为正向的高资本回报率，亚马逊将成为这场 AI 算力军备竞赛中斩获最丰厚长期回报的最大赢家。

[10:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=600s) Business Segment Breakdown and the Ad Market Race with Meta and Google

Daniel Pronk examines his favorite quarterly slide from Amazon’s earnings release, which details year-over-year revenue growth across each segment. The headline numbers initially look sluggish: online stores and physical stores both grew by just 2%, while third-party seller services expanded by 10%. Advertising revenue decelerated sharply to 12%, a figure that Wall Street found deeply disappointing. However, this slowdown was countered by Amazon Web Services (AWS), which accelerated to an impressive 39% growth rate. Pronk emphasizes that the apparently weak retail and advertising figures are heavily distorted because Amazon’s largest annual shopping event, Prime Day, shifted from the third quarter in the prior year to the second quarter this year. When accounting for that calendar shift, generating double-digit growth across its larger business lines remains a solid operational achievement.

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Big Tech Q3 Advertising Dynamics accDescr: Comparison of quarterly advertising performance across Amazon, Google, and Meta

subgraph Decelerating["Facing Deceleration"] AMZN["Amazon Ads +$1.9B net revenue Decelerated to 12% YoY"] GOOG["Google Ads Weaker net additions Losing share to Meta"] end

subgraph Leader["Accelerating Leader"] META["Meta Ads Expanding rapidly Driven by AI monetization"] end

Decelerating -.->|"Trailing 12-month ad revenue"| META META -->|"Poised to surpass"| GOOG ```

Turning to his custom multi-company tracker comparing Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet (Google), Pronk points out that Amazon experienced a relatively soft ad quarter, adding $1.9 billion in net advertising revenue. Google similarly posted a weaker quarter, leaving Meta as the standout winner in digital advertising. Meta is now on the verge of surpassing Google in trailing twelve-month advertising revenue, fueled by the aggressive payoff of its artificial intelligence investments. While Amazon’s ad division has expanded by 200% since Q2 2021—the highest cumulative percentage gain among the trio due to its smaller starting base—its quarter-over-quarter trajectory visibly stalled. An automated earnings summary provided by Claude underscored that this marked Amazon's weakest ad performance since 2023, while noting that Meta remains the sole platform still accelerating its growth curve.

- Online stores net sales grew 2% year-over-year. - Physical stores net sales grew 2% year-over-year. - Third-party seller services net sales grew 10% year-over-year. - Advertising revenue rose 12% year-over-year, marking a notable deceleration. - AWS revenue growth accelerated to 39% year-over-year. - Amazon added $1.9 billion in net new advertising revenue during the quarter. - Amazon's total advertising business has surged 200% since Q2 2021.

> “Meta is the only advertising business that is still accelerating, and Claude believes that this is the clearest evidence that Meta's AI investments are in fact paying off and expanding the business.”

---

[13:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=789s) AWS Growth Resurgence versus the Advertising Slowdown

Examining underlying charts on StockUnlock, Pronk highlights the dramatic contrast between AWS and Amazon's advertising business. AWS surged to a 39.3% revenue growth rate, registering its fastest expansion pace since the first quarter of 2022, when it clocked 39.5%. The cloud division is scaling at breakneck speed, with management projecting momentum to continue accelerating through 2027. Conversely, the quarterly advertising growth chart displays a steep drop-off, tumbling from previous highs down to 12%. Pronk acknowledges that “the advertising revenue growth rate fell off of a freaking cliff,” triggering panic across trading desks.

Pronk expects this ad weakness to be temporary, predicting that growth rates will rebound to the 18% to 19% range in the fourth quarter. He warns investors, however, that this sudden deceleration will fuel an emerging Wall Street narrative over the next three months: the fear that autonomous AI agents might bypass traditional e-commerce search, disrupting Amazon’s high-margin advertising cash cow. When addressing why quarter-over-quarter AWS growth appeared slightly moderated, CEO Andy Jassy explained on the call that the timing of new data center capacity coming online dictates revenue recognition, rather than any softening in customer appetite.

- AWS grew 39.3% year-over-year, the highest rate since Q1 2022 (39.5%). - Amazon advertising growth fell abruptly to 12% in Q3. - Projected Q4 advertising growth is expected to rebound to approximately 18%–19%.

> “It really just depends when capacity is added, and it is not a reflection of the overall demand.”

---

[15:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=909s) Conference Call Highlights: Custom Silicon, Bedrock, and Capacity Bottlenecks

The earnings conference call delivered critical context regarding Amazon’s AI roadmap and cloud infrastructure. Analysts pressed management on when AWS would begin commercializing its proprietary Trainium AI chips to external buyers. Amazon clarified that external commercial sales will not commence until late 2027. While selling Trainium externally would immediately boost top-line revenue, Amazon requires every available chip internally to service its own workloads, projecting that these processors will generate substantial internal cash flow across AWS for the next five to six years. However, analysts reacted coolly to management's refusal to issue specific operating margin guidance for AWS.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: AWS Enterprise AI and Hardware Ecosystem accDescr: Flow showing internal capacity allocation, chip scaling, and enterprise adoption within AWS

subgraph Silicon["Custom AI Silicon"] TRN["Trainium Chips Internal usage through 2027 External sales late 2027"] GRAV["Graviton Processors Fastest growing service ever"] end

subgraph CloudLayer["Cloud & Foundation Models"] AWS_INFRA["AWS Compute & Storage $578B Backlog (+289% YoY)"] BEDROCK["Amazon Bedrock 7x Fortune 500 spend YoY"] end

Silicon -->|"Powers compute capacity"| AWS_INFRA AWS_INFRA -->|"Enables enterprise AI"| BEDROCK ```

Despite capacity bottlenecks, AWS fundamentals are expanding at a historic scale. The cloud backlog reached $578 billion, surging by $82 billion quarter-over-quarter and up 289% year-over-year. Core compute and storage revenues grew at their fastest clip in years, with aggregate compute demand vastly outstripping available hardware—leaving substantial revenue on the table, much like rivals Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud. Amazon Bedrock was spotlighted as the fastest-growing multi-billion-dollar service in AWS history, with Fortune 500 enterprise spend increasing sevenfold year-over-year. Custom silicon revenue commitments have surged 20-fold, while Jassy dismissed concerns regarding AI agents harming the core business, noting that Prime Video advertising is already generating tens of billions in annual run-rate revenue. On a like-for-like basis excluding the Prime Day calendar shift, management noted that ad growth would have exceeded 20%.

- AWS backlog reached $578 billion, increasing $82 billion sequentially and 289% year-over-year. - External sales of Trainium AI chips are scheduled to begin in late 2027. - Proprietary chip revenue commitments expanded 20x year-over-year, maintaining triple-digit growth. - Fortune 500 enterprise spend on Amazon Bedrock expanded 7x year-over-year. - Prime Day timing stripped an estimated 8.5% of growth from reported advertising figures; normalized growth exceeded 20%. - Prime Video advertising run-rate stands in the tens of billions of dollars.

> “AWS's backlog also was reported at 578 billion, up 82 billion quarter over quarter and 289 percent year over year core compute and storage revenue grew the fastest in several years and demand overall for ai compute still far outstrips supply so amazon is leaving revenue on the table just like google cloud and microsoft are they then said that bedrock is the fastest growing multi-billion dollar service in aws's history and that Fortune 500 companies are spending seven times more on bedrock year over year.”

---

[17:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1029s) Valuation Analysis: Cash Flow Multiples at 2009 Financial Crisis Lows

Following the after-hours sell-off, Amazon’s market capitalization dropped to $2.53 trillion against trailing twelve-month operating cash flow of $168.3 billion. This places the company’s valuation at exactly 15 times price-to-operating cash flow (P/OCF). Pronk reviews historical valuation data dating back to 2008, showing that Amazon’s long-term median P/OCF multiple has sat at 25.8 times. A multiple of 15 represents an extreme historical discount, especially given that operating margins are actively expanding to record company highs.

Pronk underscores that an investor must look all the way back to January 2009—during the depths of the Great Financial Crisis—to find Amazon trading below 15 times operating cash flow. Even during February 2009, the multiple recovered slightly to 15.6 times, and the lowest level logged during the regional banking and interest rate correction in March of this year was 15.5 times. Trading right at 15 times in after-hours trading places Amazon at its cheapest relative cash-flow multiple in more than 16 years, which Pronk views as a massive dislocation between market sentiment and intrinsic earnings power.

- Trailing twelve-month operating cash flow stands at $168.3 billion. - Amazon's after-hours market capitalization contracted to $2.53 trillion. - The company's historical median price-to-operating cash flow multiple since 2008 is 25.8x.

> “So Amazon is quite literally at the lowest price to operating cash flow that the stock has traded for since 2009, right near the financial crisis.”

---

[19:11](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1151s) Discounted Cash Flow Modeling and Portfolio Strategy

Pronk presents his updated Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model, which relies on operating cash flow rather than net income or free cash flow. In his conservative baseline model, he assumes Amazon grows operating cash flow by 20% annually over the next three years—a target well within reach if AWS delivers its projected 40% annual growth—and assigns an exit multiple of 17 times P/OCF. Even with that modest multiple expansion, which remains far below historical norms, the model yields an expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.6% for shareholders.

Wall Street consensus estimates are notably more aggressive, projecting Amazon’s operating cash flows to expand by 28% annually over the next three years. Pronk notes that if Amazon achieves that consensus growth and the valuation multiple re-rates to 19 times, the stock would deliver a 30%+ annual compound return. Because his conservative scenario already delivers returns exceeding 20% per year, Amazon remains the second-largest position in his personal investment portfolio. He believes capital expenditures will demonstrate strong returns on investment, unlocking future multiple expansion back above 20 times.

- Baseline DCF model assumptions: 20% annualized operating cash flow growth over 3 years. - Conservative exit valuation multiple: 17x price-to-operating cash flow. - Baseline expected return: 21.6% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). - Wall Street consensus projections: 28% annualized operating cash flow growth. - Bullish re-rating scenario (19x P/OCF multiple): >30% CAGR. - Amazon stands as the second-largest holding in Pronk's personal portfolio.

> “Even with what I think is a very conservative DCF, I still get an over 20% compounded annual growth rate to Amazon share price over the next three years.”

---

[20:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1200s) Synthesis of the Thesis: Capital Spending, Debt Risks, and Final Verdict

In his concluding recap, Pronk reiterates that the market's adverse reaction stems from headline noise rather than structural decay. The calendar shift of Prime Day penalized third-quarter retail and advertising comparisons, but fourth-quarter reporting will provide a much cleaner year-over-year benchmark. Meanwhile, AWS is positioned to generate nearly $400 billion in annual revenue by 2028 if it hits its guided 40% growth rates in 2027 and 2028. This cloud expansion reinforces Amazon's internal vision of eventually housing two separate $1 trillion business segments within the conglomerate over the next decade.

At the same time, Pronk candidly addresses the genuine risks that spooked Wall Street: Amazon's free cash flow turned deeply negative, and the company is taking on substantial debt to finance its unprecedented AI infrastructure rollout. He emphasizes that while Amazon's fortress balance sheet can absorb this burn temporarily, continuing at this pace without high-margin monetization would be unsustainable. Ultimately, Pronk concludes that if the return on investment on AI capital expenditures delivers as expected, shareholder returns will be tremendous. Capitalizing on widespread market panic, he bought additional shares of Amazon after hours.

- AWS guidance anticipates 40% annual growth in 2027 and 2028, targeting nearly $400 billion in revenue. - Amazon internal leadership targets two distinct $1 trillion business units within the next decade. - Graviton stands as the fastest-growing service ever built inside AWS. - Near-term free cash flow has swung sharply negative due to aggressive debt-funded AI capital expenditures. - Pronk expanded his equity stake during the after-hours earnings sell-off.

> “Amazon does still have a very strong balance sheet, but this is unsustainable. That is the fact of the matter. However, if the ROI on CapEx proves to be high, then Amazon will produce tremendous shareholder value.”

## Notable quotes > [17:09](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1029s) Amazon is quite literally at the lowest price to operating cash flow that the stock has traded for since 2009, right near the financial crisis. — Daniel Pronk

> [19:11](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=1151s) Even with what I think is a very conservative DCF, I still get an over 20% compounded annual growth rate to Amazon share price over the next three years. — Daniel Pronk

> [00:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj?t=0s) For Amazon, especially right now, I believe that earnings and free cash flow are quite literally meaningless. — Daniel Pronk

## Mentioned Amazon, AWS, Daniel Pronk, Andy Jassy, Meta, Alphabet, Google, Google Cloud, Microsoft Azure, ServiceNow, Fortinet, Intel, Reddit, Trainium, Graviton, Amazon Bedrock, Prime Video, Prime Day, StockUnlock, Claude

## Video description 【Daniel Pronk】亚马逊财报大跌估值回落至金融危机水平 The Market Hated Amazon's Earnings - Here's Why I'm Buying More

｜财报背后的错觉亚马逊盘后股价一度下跌 7%，叠加当日跌幅，市场情绪显得极度恐慌。但只要拆解财报数据，就会发现这并非业绩崩盘，而是典型的「噪音」干扰。由于 Prime Day 促销节点从去年三季度移至今年二季度，导致三季度营收增速仅为 12%，广告业务增速放缓至 12%。这种季节性错位让华尔街抓住了做空的把柄，但从长期运营利润和现金流来看，公司核心业务依然强劲。

｜云业务的加速引擎 AWS 表现极其亮眼，营收同比增长 39.3%，达到 460 亿美元，且增长动能仍在持续。公司明确给出指引，预计 AWS 在 2027 年和 2028 年将保持 40% 的年增速，有望在 2026 年底实现 2000 亿美元的年营收。目前 AWS 的运营利润率已达 37%，随着这部分业务占比提升，亚马逊整体利润率空间将进一步打开。

｜激进的 AI 投入亚马逊目前是云巨头中投资最激进的一家，本季度自由现金流为负 350 亿美元，且年内举债 1150 亿美元用于 AI 基础设施建设。市场对这种高负债扩张心存顾虑，担心一旦回报不及预期，债务将成为沉重负担。但从资产负债表看，公司流动性依然充足，只要 AI 基础设施能带来高回报，这种投入将转化为长期的护城河。

｜估值处于历史低位截至财报发布后，亚马逊市盈率（以运营现金流计算）降至 15 倍。回溯 2008 年以来的历史数据，这一估值水平仅在 2009 年金融危机期间出现过。考虑到公司利润率正处于历史高点，且 AWS 业务处于加速期，当前的市场抛售更像是一次情绪化的错杀。保守模型测算，未来三年公司股价年化增长潜力超过 20%。

接下来建议的操作指引： 1. 观察亚马逊（AMZN）在 15 倍运营现金流估值附近的支撑力度，若市场情绪回稳，可分批布局长期仓位。 2. 密切跟踪 2025 年一季度财报中广告业务增速是否回升至 18%-19% 的常态水平。 3. 关注 AWS 资本开支转化为实际营收的效率，重点考察 AI 芯片业务（Trainium）在 2027 年外部销售后的盈利兑现情况。

[0:03] 亚马逊盘后股价大跌及市场情绪分析 [2:04] 亚马逊运营利润与 AWS 营收增长数据 [3:04] 各业务板块增长情况与经营现金流表现 [4:04] AWS 未来增长指引与万亿营收愿景 [6:06] 四季度营收预期与广告业务增速放缓原因 [7:07] 资本开支与自由现金流负增长现状 [9:09] 资产负债表分析与债务风险评估 [10:09] 各业务线增长率对比与广告业务走势 [13:09] AWS 增长动能与 AI 代理对广告的影响 [15:09] 电话会议要点：芯片业务与 AI 服务进展 [17:09] 历史估值对比：当前处于 2009 年以来低点 [19:11] 长期收益模型测算与投资逻辑总结

[Source](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Xrxv6HEnj)

中文简报

【Daniel Pronk】亚马逊财报大跌估值回落至金融危机水平在亚马逊公布第三季度财报后股价暴跌7%的背景下，Daniel Pronk深入分析了其核心基本面，指出总营收与广告增速放缓至12%纯粹是由于Prime Day移至第二季度造成的基数错配，正常化后的实际营收增速仍达17%。与此同时，公司营业利润率创下13.9%的历史新高，AWS营收同比加速增长39.3%，并给出了2027至2028年维持约40%增速的长期指引，未来有望迈向万亿美元年营收。尽管为抢建AI算力壁垒导致单季度自由现金流失血350亿美元并推高负债，但亚马逊当前市现率已降至15倍的历史极端低位，保守现金流折现模型显示未来三年年化回报率超20%，Pronk因而选择在盘后恐慌抛售中逆势加仓。亚马逊第三季度财报公布后盘后暴跌7%，主因是Prime Day移至第二季度导致三季度营收和广告增速放缓至12%，但剔除该影响后的同口径汇率中性营收增速实际达17%。 (0:00) AWS业务持续加速，季度营收达460亿美元（同比增长39.3%），积压订单达5780亿美元，官方指引2027和2028年将维持约40%增速，有望在2028年实现近4000亿美元营收。 (5:00) 为抢占AI基础设施先机，公司单季自由现金流为负350亿美元，过去12个月累计举债1300亿美元，成为超大规模云厂商中最激进的资本开支投资者。 (6:06) 盘后抛售后亚马逊估值降至15倍经营现金流，追平2009年金融危机以来的历史最低估值水平，分析师测算保守模型下未来三年年化回报率可超20%。 (17:09)

Reading summary

Daniel Pronk 认为，亚马逊三季度财报引发的盘后暴跌源于促销时点错配与自由现金流失血带来的短期恐慌，而公司核心盈利能力依然强劲，当前现金流估值倍数已回落至 2009 年金融危机时期的历史低位。财报表层噪音与核心盈利扩张 (0:00) 亚马逊股价在财报公布后盘后大跌 7%，但 Daniel Pronk 指出其核心基本面并未恶化。三季度营业利润达 281 亿美元，营业利润率升至历史最高的 13.9%；过去 12 个月（TTM）经营现金流同比增长 29% 至 1683 亿美元。分部方面，北美业务营业利润同比增 81% 至 87 亿美元，AWS 营业利润亦激增 56%。名义营收增速放缓至 12% 以及广告业务增速骤降至 12%，主因是 Prime Day 由去年的三季度移至今年二季度，造成高基数扰动；剔除该影响后，汇率中性营收增速实际达 17%，调整后广告增速亦超过 20%。管理层预计四季度广告业务增速将回升至 18% 至 19%。 AWS 加速扩张与万亿营收愿景 (5:00) 财报显示 AWS 季度营收达 460 亿美元，同比增速加速至 39.3%，年化规模达 1840 亿美元。管理层指引 AWS 在 2027 和 2028 年将维持约 40% 的年化增速，按此测算，其营收有望在 2028 年达到 3920 亿美元，以目前 37% 的利润率计算将贡献约 1450 亿美元营业利润。管理层更提出未来 5 至 10 年内电商零售与 AWS 均有望冲击 1 万亿美元年营收。目前 AWS 未履约积压订单（Backlog）达 578 亿美元，同比增长 289%，企业级产品 Bedrock 在财富 500 强中的开支同比增至 7 倍。自研芯片 Trainium 预计在 2027 年底前均优先供应内部算力需求，随后才开展外部销售。激进举债与自由现金流巨额失血 (6:06) 为抢占 AI 基础设施先机，亚马逊展现出同类云厂商中最激进的资本开支策略，公司维持全年 2200 亿美元的资本开支指引。高额投入导致自由现金流面临严峻透支：单季自由现金流为负 350 亿美元，当季新增发债 480 亿美元；过去 12 个月累计发债高达 1300 亿美元，TTM 自由现金流为负 470 亿美元。Daniel Pronk 评估认为，亚马逊目前流动比率约为 1，且具备年产近 2000 亿美元经营现金流的能力，1730 亿美元的长期负债短期内可控，但每年举债千亿美元的模式长期不可持续，最终成败完全取决于 AI 基建能否兑现高投资回报率（ROI）。估值回落至2009年低点与回报测算 (17:09) 盘后大跌后，亚马逊市值降至 2.53 万亿美元，对应过去 12 个月 1683 亿美元的经营现金流，其股价与经营现金流比（P/OCF）降至约 15 倍。这一水平远低于 2008 年至今 25.8 倍的历史中位数，持平于 2009 年 1 月金融危机最底部的估值区间。在 Daniel Pronk 基于经营现金流构建的保守折现现金流（DCF）模型中，若未来三年经营现金流实现 20% 年化增长，并在退出时给予 17 倍的保守倍数，对应年化复合回报率（CAGR）仍可达 21.6%；若按华尔街预期的 28% 增速及 19 倍倍数测算，年化复合回报率将突破 30%。 Daniel Pronk 认为市场过度放大了促销时间差带来的报表降速，却低估了 AWS 的长期壁垒，因而他在盘后选择直接加仓。然而，该投资逻辑的重大不确定性依然在于庞大的负自由现金流与债务扩张，若后续 AI 基础设施无法产生预期的超额资本回报，这种重度资本开支模式将面临严峻考验。

Source quotes

[17:09] Daniel Pronk: Amazon is quite literally at the lowest price to operating cash flow that the stock has traded for since 2009, right near the financial crisis. [19:11] Daniel Pronk: Even with what I think is a very conservative DCF, I still get an over 20% compounded annual growth rate to Amazon share price over the next three years. [0:00] Daniel Pronk: For Amazon, especially right now, I believe that earnings and free cash flow are quite literally meaningless.

Original transcript

[0:00] Amazon stock is down 7% in after hours trading right now at the time of recording this video, after they posted their Q3 earnings results. And this is even after the stock fell 4% on the day today. ServiceNow stock also fell 26% today. Fortinet is down 20% intel is down 17 in after hours right now and reddit is also down at 16 in after hours after being down 4% today. So this is another earnings season where stocks are getting nuked across the board if their earnings are just slightly off. And what's interesting is, as we're going to see, Amazon's earnings weren't even bad. They actually beat their own guidance. So this is a very weird time in the market where it's just extremely volatile and investors seem like they are on edge. However, as I have been telling my Patreon and website communities, I do believe that this volatility is not entirely rational. And if you are someone who can control your emotions and think long term, then I think this volatility is where you can actually find the most opportunity. So full disclosure, I have added to my Amazon position in after hours trading after going through the earnings report. And Amazon remains the second largest position in my portfolio. And as a long-term investor, I am pretty surprised that Amazon stock is getting hit so hard right now. But also, just like with Google, as we discussed yesterday in that video, by the way, thank you everyone for tuning in. That video went viral and popped off. But just like with Google's earnings, There is a lot of noise in Amazon's report. And there's a lot of things that Wall Street could be nitpicky about and point to and say, this is bad. And I think that's kind of the narrative that we're going to see going forward in the short term here. So with that being said, I'm going to stop rambling and let's now get into our Daniel Pronk slideshow of Amazon's earnings results. All right, so let's start from the top here, and we can see that Amazon had operating income of 28.1 billion, and an operating margin of 13.9%, which is the highest operating margin that Amazon has ever had. So Amazon's margins are continuing to expand. AWS revenue grew 39.3%, which means that AWS is continuing to accelerate, and it is now doing $184 billion in annualized revenue. This is a business doing almost $200 billion in revenue. growing 40% year over year. That is ridiculous. However, we can see that overall sales only grew 12% and 13% on an FX neutral basis. This is because Prime Day was in the third quarter last year versus being in the second quarter this year, which means that there was a headwind to overall revenue growth this quarter because last year's comps were quite a bit better. On a like-for-like 17% on an FX neutral basis. So Amazon is still growing quite quickly. But again, as I said, this is going to be a little bit of a more noisy quarter. Moving on, we can see that North American sales are up 6%. International sales are up 5%. And again, AWS is up 39% to $46 billion in revenue for this quarter. North America operating income came in at $8.7 billion, up 81%. International and then AWS operating income is up 56%. So Amazon's margins, as you can see, are expanding at AWS and expanding significantly in its North American business. Moving on, though, we can see that operating cash flow in the trailing 12 months is now at 168.3 billion, up 29% year over year. So Amazon's operating profits are continuing to grow very well. For Amazon, especially right now, I believe that earnings and free cash flow are quite literally meaningless. So I'm not even going to discuss them. I think the number one thing to focus on as a long-term investor for Amazon is its operating profits and cash flows growing. Alright, moving on to the next screenshot. This is a little bit of an Easter egg in the earnings report that I didn't see a lot of people talking about online so far. Here Amazon is projecting that AWS will have revenue growth of 40% in 2027, end in 2028 now aws is on track to be doing 200 billion dollars in annualized revenue by the end of 2026 which means that AWS would be doing about $280 billion of revenue next year, than $392 billion in revenue for 2028. Or in other words, Amazon believes that AWS's revenue could double over the next two years. AWS also currently has an operating margin of [5:00] 37%. which means that it could be doing $145 billion of operating income in the year of 2028. And as AWS continues to make up more and more of Amazon's revenue, then Amazon's overall margins will continue to expand as well. Another thing that they said here is that there has never been a trillion dollar revenue business and that Amazon may have two of them, over the next five to ten years which basically means that their online sales business their e-commerce business could be doing over a trillion dollars of revenue over the next decade, along with AWS. They believe that AWS could reach a trillion dollars of revenue, over the next decade as someone who plans to hold amazon for the next decade thinking just about aws doing a trillion dollars in revenue by 2036 is ridiculous that makes amazon look like an absolute steal today so while the market is freaking out over an earnings per share miss or the advertising business not growing as quickly this quarter When I think long-term, This thing still looks like it is a steal today, and I am pretty shocked that the market is so willing to just tank the stock so quickly. But let's continue on through the slideshow. All right, this next screenshot shows us the guidance for the fourth quarter, and Amazon is expecting $240 to $247 billion in revenue, which is growth of 12 to 16%. Advertising revenue also only grew 12% this quarter, which was lower due to Prime Day again spending so much money during Prime Day. So the advertising business saw a tremendous headwind for overall year-over-year growth rates this quarter specifically. Then Amazon says that advertising revenue is expected to grow in the high teens into the end of the year. So advertising should give us a much more real comparison in the fourth quarter. Operating income is expected to be between $28.5 and $33.5 billion, which is about a 12 to 13.5% margin. So operating income is expected to be pretty strong heading into the end of the year. And Amazon maintained their CapEx guidance of $220 billion for this year, so they did not raise their CapEx guide for 2026. And overall, it seems like Amazon is still expecting strong growth heading into the end of the year, which is good to see. All right, now let's move on to Amazon's cash flow statement. And one thing that is interesting is in the trailing 12 months, Amazon has seen its stock-based compensation decline by about $200 million. hyperscaler that is seeing its stock-based compensation actually start to come down. Moving on to operating cash flow though, operating cash flow was $42.4 billion this quarter, up 19% year-over-year. Operating cash flow is up 34% year to date, and as we saw earlier, 29% in the trailing 12 months. However, Amazon's capex is exploding, though, and Amazon is very free cash flow negative. Just this quarter, they lost $35 billion of free cash flow, and they raised $48 billion of debt. Year to date, they have lost 62 billion of free cash flow and raised 115 billion of debt, And in the trailing 12 months, they have had a negative 47 billion of free cash flow and have raised 130 billion of debt. I believe this shows us that Amazon is the most aggressive investor out of the hyperscalers, and they are the company willing to go the most negative in free cash flow, which I actually do kind of like as long as the opportunity for building out AI infrastructure does exist. and will produce a high ROI. If it does, then Amazon stands to actually make the most money and shareholder returns over the longer term, because again, they are the company going the most aggressive to capture this opportunity. But since Amazon is raising so much debt right now, I thought that it was worth taking a quick look at their balance sheet. And Amazon still has about as many current assets as current liabilities, which means that the business is still very liquid. Also, when you factor in that they're generating almost $200 billion of operating having a current ratio of 1. Long-term debt is also only $173 billion, and I know that I say it's only $173 billion, but for Amazon and with this company's level of profits, it really isn't that much. So in my opinion, the debt is not an issue for Amazon, but it's obviously not sustainable to raise $100 billion in debt every single year forever. produce positive ROI, then Amazon is left with a lot of debt that is essentially a not producing an actual profit for the company. So it's not ideal to see for analysts, but if there is a positive ROI, then Amazon stands to benefit tremendously. [10:00] All right, moving on to the next screenshot. This is my favorite table from Amazon's earnings report every single quarter. It shows us all of their different business segments and their growth rates on a year over year basis. So starting from the top, we can see that online stores grew 2% year over year. Physical stores also grew 2%. Third party seller services revenue grew 10%. Advertising grew 12%. And you can see that there was a huge deceleration here. to 12% is not what the market wanted to see. However, we can then see that AWS accelerated to 39% growth, and it sounds like it will continue to accelerate into 2027. Now, straight up, these numbers look bad. But again, you have to realize that their biggest shopping event of the And they are still growing by over 10% in many of their larger businesses, despite having that. But as I said earlier, Q4 will be a better reflection of Amazon's actual growth. And despite this, AWS is still killing it. All right, let's now move on to the charts that I update every single quarter. And I actually shared these charts in my Google video yesterday, but now we have Amazon's data. So I included Amazon in them. A few of you also told me yesterday that Meta and Google's colors were too similar. So I changed Meta to green in these charts. But what this first chart is showing us is the net revenue added to advertising for every quarter for Amazon, Meta, and Google. Here we can see that Amazon did in fact have a weak quarter, adding $1.9 billion in net revenue to their advertising business. just like Google also had a weaker quarter. This chart also shows us that Meta is really winning in advertising. Both Amazon and Google are making Meta's advertising business and Q3 report look even better. This next chart is the trailing 12 months numbers, and here we can see that Meta is about to pass Google for advertising revenue, as I shared yesterday, and it's going to be And Amazon is still growing strong and very consistently, but it's obviously a much smaller business. This next chart shows us the total growth to the advertising businesses since the second quarter of 2021 when I started tracking all of these metrics. And you can see that Amazon's total growth has very clearly decelerated this quarter along with Google. Meta is the only one still maintaining very fast growth rates. Since the second quarter of 2021 though, Amazon's advertising business has grown the most at 200% now. But obviously, it is easier to grow off of a much smaller base. So here is the summary that Claude spat out for me because it gives me a summary every single quarter. And here it says that Amazon had the weakest advertising quarter since 2023. But it does say that this was because in Q3 of 2025, Amazon had its first big post-Prime video ads quarter, and again, they did have their Prime Day in the third quarter last year. Meta is the only advertising business that is still accelerating, and Claude believes that this is the clearest evidence that Meta's AI investments are in fact paying off and expanding the business. All right, now we're going to move on to some charts from Stockum Lock, and this first one is AWS's revenue growth rates. rate to that 39.3%. And this is the highest revenue growth rate since the first quarter of 2022, when it grew by 39.5%. And I am expecting AWS's growth rates to continue accelerating. This next chart simply shows us AWS's revenue growth. And you can see how quickly the business is scaling right now. This next chart is the quarterly advertising revenue growth rates. And you can see that this quarter, the advertising revenue growth rate fell off of a freaking cliff. And the market really, really did not like this. It was definitely a weaker quarter for advertising, but next quarter we should see a good bump, and the numbers should get back up to about 18-19%, in my opinion. I also think that the weaker advertising quarter is playing into the fears around AI agents disrupting Amazon's advertising business, and I think that this is something that you're going to start to hear more of over the next about three months until Amazon reports again. right here. Let's now quickly discuss the highlights that I heard from the conference call. Starting from the top, an analyst asked about quarter over quarter AWS revenue growth being slower. And Andy Jassy said that this is because of the timing for AWS capacity coming online. It really just depends when capacity is added, and it is not a reflection of the overall demand. already. So this is basically guaranteed revenue coming in, which is why he gave us the 40% year [15:00] over your growth rates for the next two years. However, Amazon would not give guidance on AWS margins and analysts did not seem to like that. Analysts also asked when Amazon will start selling Tranium externally and Amazon said it will start in late 2027. They did say that Tranium sales would accelerate the growth today immediately. but internally they are needed and Tranium will produce cash within AWS for the next five to six years. AWS's backlog also was reported at 578 billion. up 82 billion quarter over quarter and 289 percent year over year core compute and storage revenue grew the fastest in several years and demand overall for ai compute still far outstrips supply so amazon is leaving revenue on the table just like google cloud and microsoft are they then said that bedrock is the fastest growing multi-billion dollar service in aws's history and that Fortune 500 companies are spending seven times more on bedrock year over year. The chips business is also still growing triple digits, and revenue commitments are up 20x year over year. So Amazon's chips business is continuing to explode. They also shared that advertising revenue would have had another 8.5% growth rate on a like-for-like basis if Amazon Prime did not happen in the third quarter last year, would have grown over 20% this quarter, again, if it was a like-for-like basis. And then lastly, Jassy said that agents are not impacting advertising in any way. And Prime Video is doing tens of billions of advertising revenue. Amazon has now done $168.3 billion in trillion 12 months operating cash flow, and it has a $2.53 trillion market cap in after-hours trading now. cash flows. Now, if we go take a look at Amazon's historical price to operating cash flow all the way back to 2008, you can see that the median has been 25.8. So 15 times operating cash flow is very low for Amazon relative to how this business has been historically valued, especially when you consider that the business's margins are actually expanding and hitting record highs right now. Now, what's also interesting is you have to go all the way back to January of 2009. to see Amazon at a lower price to operating cash flow than 15. Even right here in February of 2009, it got up to 15.6. And again, right now and after hours, it is trading for about 15, right at 15. The lowest it has been recently was about 15.5 in the market correction that happened in March of this year. And now it is even lower than this. So Amazon is quite literally at the lowest price to operating cash flow that the stock has traded for since 2009, right near the financial crisis. And this is one of the reasons why I think that Amazon is looking so cheap in the market right now. Additionally, I have updated my DCFs for Amazon. And as always, you guys know, I like to use operating cash flow for Amazon, and I have put in their updated TTM number here. And over the next three years, if Amazon can continue to grow its operating cash flows by 20% per year, which I think they will, especially if AWS continues to grow by 40% per year, and trade for a 17 price to operating cash flow multiple, which does factor in some multiple expansion, but is still well below the company's long-term averages and medians, by about 21.6% annually, over the next three years. And I do not think that this is a bullish DCF right here. I think that this is a very conservative DCF. For example, analysts have Amazon growing its operating cash flows by 28% annually over the next three years. And if its multiple can even get back up to 19, then the stock could now produce an over 30% compounded annual growth rate, from its share price right now. Even with what I think is a very conservative DCF, I still get an over 20% compounded annual growth rate to Amazon share price. over the next three years. And this is why I am continuing to buy Amazon shares and why it is the second largest position in my portfolio, because I ultimately believe that Amazon is going to blow these numbers out of the water. And as their ROI on their AI CapEx does prove to be paying off, then I believe that their multiple will re-expand. And I would not be surprised to see Amazon over a 20 price to operating cash flow again at some point in the future. And if they can continue to grow their operating cash flows tremendously by the time that happens, then I believe that Amazon is going to produce a lot of shareholder returns. [20:00] And that's really my thesis for Amazon right now. All right, let's now finish up the video with my final thoughts and conclusions. Starting from the top, this was a more noisy quarter due to the timing of Prime Day in 2025, as I have said many times. This made the year-over-year numbers for the retail and advertising businesses look weak, but in reality, they were still pretty good. Advertising would have grown over 20% and is still projected to grow in the high teens for the fourth quarter. Q4 overall will give us a better and more clean year-over-year comparison to Amazon's businesses and its growth rates. AWS is still growing tremendously and is expected to grow 40% in both 2027 and 2028, which will lead to AWS doing nearly $400 billion in revenue, and it will continue expanding Amazon's margins overall. Amazon believes it will have two $1 trillion businesses over the next decade. The chips businesses are growing triple digits while doing tens of billions in revenue too. Graviton is the fastest growing business ever within AWS. Overall, AWS demand is still far greater than supply. Amazon is now trading for its lowest price to operating cash flow since 2009 while the margins are hitting an all high and AWS is accelerating strongly In my conservative DCFs I now get 20 plus compounded annual growth rates on Amazon stock over the next three years. Amazon is very free cash flow negative though right now, and is taking on a lot of debt to continue funding its AI buildout. And the market clearly does not like this. Amazon does still have a very strong balance sheet, but this is unsustainable. That is the fact of the matter. However, if the ROI on CapEx proves to be high, then Amazon will produce tremendous shareholder value. And ultimately, I added to my Amazon position after the earnings report. But with all that being said, that is going to wrap up today's video. And let me know what you think of Amazon's earnings results down in the comment section below. And also what you think about the market right now with stocks across the board getting absolutely nuked. Because I obviously thought that this was a pretty good report from Amazon, not the best one. but I do not think that the stock deserves to be down so much in after hours trading. And that is why I bought some more. Also, if you enjoyed this video, then please remember to leave a like on it. And if you want to see more earnings analysis like this in the future, then make sure to subscribe to my channel because I have a lot more coming. There's a lot that we got to discuss and it would be cool if you guys stuck around. But as always, thank you so much for tuning in. I truly do appreciate it. And I hope to see you again in my next video.

【Daniel Pronk】亚马逊财报大跌 估值回落至金融危机水平