Adam Khoo 提出核心疑问：作为理性的价值投资者，此时究竟应当如何应对？该如何正确对这些公司进行估值？它们是否还具备投资价值？他指出，导致市场投资者恐慌出逃的最核心诱因，就是这些科技巨头在最新的财报中报出了**负自由现金流（Negative Free Cash Flow）**。自由现金流的本质是企业主营业务产生的经营现金流（Cash from Operations）扣除资本开支（CapEx）后剩余的现金。普通投资者往往认为一家优秀的企业必须持续拥有正向且不断增长的自由现金流，一旦转负就代表大难临头。但 Adam Khoo 明确表示自己对此完全不担忧。
Adam Khoo 总结道：“And it's something I'm totally not concerned about because it's not that the business is not doing well, business is doing very well because of inventory timing and that stupid fine, it turned negative.” 业务的基本盘极其稳固，现金流数据的暂时转弱纯粹是偶发事件和备货节奏所致。
[04:07](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=247s) 维持性开支 vs 发展性开支：负现金流背后的战略真相
Adam Khoo 用画图板推导了自由现金流的计算逻辑：自由现金流等于经营现金流减去资本开支。自由现金流变成负数通常只有两种路径：一种是经营现金流恶化、主营业务造血能力衰退，这是真正的坏事，属于必须清仓避险的企业；另一种则是经营现金流健康向上，但资本开支短期内出现巨幅飙升，导致自由现金流暂时被拉入负值区间。亚马逊、Meta、微软和谷歌显然属于后者——它们正在豪掷数百亿美元建设数据中心，以确立并巩固自身在人工智能革命（AI Revolution）中的绝对领导地位。
subgraph Bad["恶性负现金流（坚决规避）"]
B1["经营现金流持续衰退"] --> B2["主营业务造血恶化"]
B2 --> B3["产生负自由现金流"]
end
subgraph Good["良性负现金流（科技巨头现状）"]
G1["经营现金流稳健增长"] --> G2["巨额发展性资本开支 (CapEx)"]
G2 -->|"抢建 AI 数据中心"| G3["自由现金流短期转负"]
G3 -->|"筑牢护城河"| G4["未来利润与自由现金流爆发"]
end
```
在评估重资产投入时，必须严格区分两类性质截然不同的资本开支：
- **维持性资本开支（Maintenance CapEx）**：企业为了维持现有业务运转而不得不支付的费用。例如航空公司必须不断耗费巨资检修老旧客机或置换新机，这类开支只会无底洞般吞噬现金流，而无法扩大经营护城河。这正是 Adam Khoo 从不投资航空股的根本原因。
- **发展性资本开支（Growth CapEx）**：企业用于开拓新市场、投资新数据中心或扩建产能的战略投入。发展性资本开支不仅不会摧毁价值，反而是未来经营现金流和自由现金流呈爆发式增长的种子。
Adam Khoo 强调，超大规模巨头当前的开支绝非维持现状的被迫之举，而是极具进取心的高壁垒投资，旨在深化护城河：“Growth capex allows a company to increase its economic moat, its revenue, its income and its cash flow in the future.” 目光短浅的人看到大笔花钱就恐慌砸盘，而具有长远眼光的投资者则会将短期的市场波动视作逢低吸筹、积累优质资产的绝佳机会。
Adam Khoo 笑着打趣听众中的女性朋友也可以反转性别来理解这个逻辑，并坦言这其实就是他年轻时的真实经历：“So when I was younger, my girlfriends were complaining, oh, I don't spend enough time with them. I don't spend so much money on them because I was investing in myself.” 他当年把大部分资金都投在神经语言程序学（NLP）培训、投资进修以及大量专业书籍上，买书和上课的开销远超恋爱支出，结果被当时的女友嫌弃为穷光蛋并惨遭抛弃，但这笔发展性投资最终换来了他后半生几何级的财富跃迁。科技巨头今天在 AI 数据中心上的巨额开支，本质上就是这种以短期现金流承压换取未来指数级回报的自我投资。
Adam Khoo 强调，当投资者持有一家公司的股票，其股价因基本面短期指标下滑而下跌时，首要问自己的核心问题就是这究竟是周期性的还是结构性的：“The question you're going to ask is, is the decline cyclical? Is it a short-term decline? temporary issue. or is it a long term structural issue that will persist?”
1. **每股收益（EPS）暴跌 26% 且不及预期**：这完全是一次性账面损益导致。谷歌财报每股收益下滑的主要原因是对 SpaceX 投资产生的按市值计价未实现亏损（unrealized mark-to-market loss）。如果剔除这笔未实现亏损，谷歌实际的经营利润（operating income）强劲增长了 30%。
2. **单季度经营现金流下滑 13%**：这一方面是由于支付了欧盟的反垄断罚款，另一方面是谷歌为了销售其 TPU AI 芯片而提前建立库存，在芯片售出并回款前暂时占用了现金。这属于典型的一次性周期现象。
3. **传统搜索业务增速放缓**：传统上，谷歌依靠用户搜索并点击赞助链接来赚取广告费。本季度其搜索业务增速从之前的 17% 放缓至 12%，引发市场恐慌，甚至有人悲观认为谷歌搜索业务正在被 AI 吞噬蚕食，且 AI 搜索变现能力低下。
针对搜索业务“即将消亡”的言论，Adam Khoo 用历史数据进行了有力反驳：“The fact is that before AI started, their surge growth was actually between -2% on certain quarters to 13% on certain quarters. That's the range.” 在引入 AI 概览（AI Overviews）与 AI 模式之前，谷歌搜索业务的季度增速长期处于 -2% 至 13% 的区间。AI 推出后，搜索增速一度拉升至去年四季度的 17%、今年一季度的 19% 和三季度的 17%，本季度回落至 12%，依然位于 AI 出现前历史表现的上限区间。
面对市场的恐慌性抛售，Adam Khoo 直言：“So if you really scrutinize all these issues, you can see that there are no signs of a declining business. The business is growing.” 无论从营收规模还是云业务的爆发式增长来看，谷歌的基础盘不仅毫无问题，甚至正在全速前进。
在常规的现金流折现（DCF）估值模型中，投资者通常会基于当期的自由现金流，预测其未来 20 年的现金流并折现为现值。然而，如果直接套用被天量资本开支人为压低的当期负值或极低自由现金流，算出的内在价值会失真且极低。因此，必须引入“正常化自由现金流”（Normalized Free Cash Flow）的概念：“So to calculate a fair intrinsic value, what must we do? We cannot use the latest free cash flow. We have to use what is called a normalized free cash flow.”
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: 正常化自由现金流计算逻辑
accDescr: 使用最新经营现金流减去过去五年平均资本开支推导正常化自由现金流
A["最新经营现金流<br>(Cash from Operations)"] --> C["减法运算"]
B["过去5年平均资本开支<br>(5-Year Average Capex)"] --> C
C --> D["正常化自由现金流<br>(Normalized FCF)"]
D --> E["现金流折现估值模型<br>(DCF Intrinsic Value)"]
```
Adam Khoo 给出了具体的计算结果：“The answer is the normalized free cash flow for Google is 117. 6,5,1 million, $117 billion.” 谷歌的正常化自由现金流高达 1176.51 亿美元（约 1170 亿美元）。将这一真实的现金流数字代入内在价值计算器，才能客观、合理地评估谷歌在 AI 时代的真实商业价值，避免被短期财报噪音误导。
[20:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=1200s) Google's Intrinsic Value and Key Technical Support Levels
When valuing Alphabet (Google) through a discounted cash flow lens, Adam Khoo illustrates how adjusting for normalized capital expenditures changes the entire picture. While consensus analyst projections from FactSet forecast an 18% growth rate over the next five years and a 16% long-term rate, Adam chooses to rein in those assumptions to remain conservative. For years six through ten, he deliberately caps the growth expectation at 15%, explaining his prudent stance: “So I'm gonna cap it at 15% here, and then I'm going to calculate based on this normalized free cash flow and this lower growth rate.” Running the figures with these conservative inputs generates an intrinsic value of approximately $370 per share. For investors seeking a faster reference, the platform's automated Oracle valuation model—which similarly normalizes free cash flow and trims long-term growth—arrives at $377. With the stock trading around $283, Google sits roughly 24% below its intrinsic value.
Adam cautions that discovering an undervalued stock is never a guarantee of an immediate rally. He reminds viewers that short-term price fluctuations often defy fundamentals: “Because in the short term, the price is driven by, not logic, not fundamentals, but driven by, emotions and manipulation and all kinds of things that happen in the market.” However, over extended horizons, the business's steady earnings power will pull the share price back toward $370 and beyond. Because fear and market momentum can drag prices lower in the interim, Adam relies on technical chart analysis to pinpoint strategic entry points. Looking at Google’s multi-wave price cycle, he highlights two major weekly support zones:
- **Primary Support at $274**: A historical level where buying demand previously absorbed selling pressure and sparked reversals.
- **Secondary Support at $243**: A deeper, rock-solid support floor should the market experience a sharper pullback.
- **Execution Strategy**: Rather than attempting to guess the exact market bottom, Adam adheres to dollar-cost averaging in disciplined tranches until building a complete position.
---
[23:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=1405s) Meta's Earnings Shock: Litigation Settlements and Equity Dilution
Turning to Meta, Adam examines why the stock tumbled 12% post-earnings (later rebounding slightly to trade down 7%). Investors reacted with alarm to two headline developments: negative free cash flow driven by massive AI data center investments, and a reported 37% plunge in operating income that caused the company to miss earnings per share guidance. Yet beneath the scary headline numbers lies a temporary, one-off legal headwind. Meta absorbed a $9.89 billion charge to settle its high-profile adolescent social media addiction trial. Once that non-recurring legal penalty is stripped out, Meta’s underlying operating income actually expanded by 11%. Adam characterizes the setback as strictly cyclical rather than structural, emphasizing that this one-time hit does not impair Meta's long-term competitive moat.
The second factor triggering market anxiety is Meta’s plan to raise capital through a combination of debt and equity to fund its ambitious capital expenditure program. The company announced a $37.5 billion equity offering, prompting immediate fears of share dilution:
```mermaid
flowchart TD
accTitle: Meta Equity Dilution Market Reaction
accDescr: Flowchart illustrating the disparity between Meta's actual 2.4 percent dilution and the 12 percent market price drop.
subgraph FundRaise["Capital Raise Structure"]
A["$37.5 Billion Equity Offering"] --> B["Funds Massive Capex & AI Infrastructure"]
end
subgraph Impact["Mathematical vs Emotional Impact"]
B --> C["Actual Share Dilution: 2.4%"]
C --> D["Theoretical Justified Drop: 2.4%"]
B --> E["Emotional Panic Selling: 12% Drop"]
end
subgraph Opportunity["Investor Upside"]
E --> F["Market Overreaction Creates Buying Discount"]
end
```
Adam walks through the math of the transaction: an equity raise of this scale dilutes existing shareholders by roughly 2.4%. While a 2.4% price decline would be mathematically rational, the market dumped the stock down 12%. Adam views this wide discrepancy as an irrational overreaction, framing such episodes as classic buying opportunities: “The market tends to overreact to bad news. And so if you take advantage of the overreaction, that's how you get good deals in the market.”
---
[25:28](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=1528s) Meta's Moat, AI Momentum, and $900+ Intrinsic Value
A deep dive into Meta's core operational metrics reveals an enterprise firing on all cylinders. Total revenue surged 26% year-over-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of growth above 25%, while pure advertising revenue expanded by 25%. Management issued robust fourth-quarter guidance between $73 billion and $76 billion. Crucially, Meta demonstrated immense pricing power: ad impressions rose 10%, while the average price per ad jumped 14%—clear proof of strong advertiser demand and an unassailable digital moat. On the user engagement front, Meta's family of apps (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp) reached 3.64 billion daily active people (DAP), up 3% year-over-year. Beyond advertising, Meta’s newly rolled-out Muse AI agent has rapidly gained traction, topping US app store downloads and rolling out internationally into hubs like Singapore.
When calculating Meta’s intrinsic value using normalized free cash flow (operating cash flow minus five-year average capex), the baseline cash generation stands at an impressive $79 billion. Feeding this figure into a discounted cash flow model yields an intrinsic value ranging from $1,000 to $1,200 per share. Even under the conservative assumptions of the automated Oracle model, the calculated valuation is $900:
- **Valuation Discount**: At current market prices, Meta is roughly 31% undervalued compared to the conservative $900 benchmark.
- **Weekly Technical Support**: The chart reveals strong structural support hovering along the green 150 moving average on the weekly timeframe.
- **Short-Term Outlook**: While short-term swings cannot be predicted with absolute certainty, the technical bounce along the 150-line suggests the stock is well-positioned to head higher into year-end.
---
[28:29](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=1709s) Amazon's One-Time Distortions: Anthropic Gains and Prime Day Timing
Addressing the post-earnings sell-off in Amazon, Adam identifies the core fears spooking Wall Street: a year-over-year contraction in earnings per share, headline revenue missing expectations, and advertising growth tapering to 12%. However, examining the accounting mechanics shows that the apparent earnings decline is an optical illusion created by a tough comparison base. In the third quarter of 2025, Amazon recorded a massive, one-off $9 billion paper gain on its strategic investment in Anthropic (the AI lab behind Claude), which artificially elevated prior-year net income. With no repeated windfall in the current period, headline earnings appeared to shrink. When excluding this non-operational investment distortion, Amazon's true operating income exploded by 61% year-over-year.
The headline revenue shortfall was similarly caused by an administrative calendar shift rather than slowing customer demand. Amazon shifted its flagship Prime Day shopping event from the third quarter into the second quarter. If adjusted for this calendar shift, third-quarter revenue growth would have been four percentage points higher. Additionally, a strengthening US dollar created a $900 million negative foreign exchange drag. Adam emphasizes that these are transient calendar and currency shifts rather than fundamental business deterioration: “So again, is it a cyclical issue? Yes, it's a timing issue, and their forward guidance already shows a strong rebound in revenue and earnings per share.”
[30:00](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=1800s) Amazon's Fundamental Metrics, Valuation, and Technical Support
Adam Khoo examines the underlying operational metrics of Amazon to demonstrate that the company is far from experiencing a structural decline. In the cloud segment, Amazon Web Services (AWS) accelerated to 39% growth, marking its fastest pace in five years, while company leadership is already guiding for growth exceeding 40% in 2027 and 2028 alongside an expanding order backlog. Profitability has surged in tandem: operating income jumped 61%, pushing operating margin to 13.9%, which represents the highest operating margin in Amazon's corporate history. Looking forward, management's fourth-quarter guidance targets net sales growth between 12% and 16% and operating income between $28.5 billion and $33.5 billion, significantly exceeding consensus estimates. Khoo argues that rather than being impaired by elevated capital expenditures, Amazon's core enterprise engine is fundamentally expanding its pricing power and scale advantage. As Adam Khoo asserts, “It's in fact a business that's getting even more profitable and even more dominant.”
Turning to valuation and technical price action, Khoo calculates Amazon’s intrinsic value at approximately $233 per share using his normalized cash flow and valuation model. With the market pricing in an immediate post-earnings decline of 6.8%, Khoo highlights the $226 price level as a primary zone of technical support. He walks through the historical wave structure on the chart—pointing out the rhythmic cadence of small advances, pullbacks, and sharp trend swings—arguing that this cyclical wave behavior makes current levels highly orderly rather than chaotic. He identifies $226 as a critical accumulation zone that places the stock into modestly undervalued territory right before an anticipated broader market year-end rally. As Adam Khoo observes regarding the projected technical trajectory, “I can't 100% predict, but I'm just guessing that this will be a pretty strong support before the year-end rally.”
- **AWS Performance and Outlook:** AWS revenue expanded by 39% year-over-year (a 5-year high), with management guiding for over 40% growth in 2027 and 2028 supported by an expanding commercial backlog.
- **Record Operating Margins:** Operating income increased 61% year-over-year, driving operating margin to 13.9%, an all-time record for Amazon.
- **Q4 Forward Guidance:** Projected net sales growth of 12% to 16% and guided operating income between $28.5 billion and $33.5 billion, beating consensus expectations.
- **Valuation and Support Levels:** Intrinsic fair value is pegged at $233 per share; the first critical technical support floor sits at $226 per share following the 6.8% market reaction.
---
[32:33](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=1953s) The Three Phases of the AI Revolution and Portfolio Positioning
Khoo contextualizes the near-term cash flow compression seen across Amazon, Google, and Meta by framing the broader macroeconomic trajectory of artificial intelligence into three distinct sequential phases. Currently, the market remains in Phase 1, where the foundational enablers—principally semiconductor designers such as Nvidia and AMD, alongside specialized energy and power producers—extract the lion's share of industry profits. Conversely, the hyperscalers funding this initial infrastructure buildout must absorb heavy capital spending, balance-sheet depreciation, and suppressed near-term free cash flow. In Phase 2, which Khoo anticipates beginning next year, hyperscaler capital expenditure growth will begin to decelerate. While this tapering will moderate profit momentum for chipmakers and power suppliers, it will simultaneously unlock compounding, high-margin cloud and AI revenues for hyperscalers operating across a vastly enlarged installed base.
Looking further ahead into Phase 3 (projected for 2029 and beyond), economic value will shift downstream toward commercial adopters across traditional sectors, including healthcare, industrials, and consumer discretionary. These end-market enterprises will harness established AI infrastructure to achieve massive operating leverage and broad margin expansion. Khoo emphasizes that portfolio management during a structural technological shift requires positioning capital dynamically to capture value as it migrates across these tiers. As Adam Khoo highlights, “So it's all about knowing how to position your portfolio to capture the highest value in all three phases.” Khoo concludes by previewing his upcoming live "Black Market X" webinars in November, inviting viewers to access courses on Piranha Profits and his live Wealth Academy training, before signing off with his signature farewell to prepare for the year-end rally.
```mermaid
flowchart LR
accTitle: The Three Phases of the AI Revolution
accDescr: Diagram illustrating the three distinct phases of the AI investment cycle from infrastructure enablers to hyperscalers and end-user adopters.
subgraph P1["Phase 1: Current Infrastructure Buildout"]
E["Enablers (Nvidia, AMD, Power)"] -->|"Capture Maximum Profits"| H1["Hyperscalers (AMZN, GOOGL, META)"]
H1 -->|"CapEx Burden & Squeezed FCF"| H1
end
subgraph P2["Phase 2: Transition & Compounding"]
H2["Hyperscalers Decelerate CapEx"] -->|"Cloud & AI Revenue Compounds"| I["Expanded Installed Base"]
E2["Semis & Power Producers"] -->|"Growth Decelerates"| E2
end
- **Phase 1 Dynamics:** Enablers (semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia and AMD, power producers) capture peak profits, while hyperscalers experience free cash flow drag and depreciation headwinds due to massive data center investments.
- **Phase 2 Dynamics:** Hyperscaler CapEx growth decelerates, easing balance sheet pressure; enabler growth stabilizes while hyperscaler enterprise cloud and software run-rates compound over an expanded physical compute base.
- **Phase 3 Dynamics (2029+):** Enterprise adopters across non-tech verticals (healthcare, industrial automation, consumer discretionary) harvest productivity gains, generating the cycle's greatest margin expansions.
- **Educational Resources:** Details and enrollment announcements provided for the November live "Black Market X" webinars, Piranha Profits investing modules, and the Wealth Academy program.
## Notable quotes
> [04:07](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=247s) Growth capex allows a company to increase its economic moat, its revenue, its income and its cash flow in the future. — Adam Khoo
> [23:25](https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1J2xe6FEhw?t=1405s) The market tends to overreact to bad news. And so if you take advantage of the overreaction, that's how you get good deals in the market. — Adam Khoo
## Mentioned
Adam Khoo, Alphabet, 谷歌, Meta Platforms, Meta, 亚马逊, Amazon, AWS, 英伟达, AMD, SpaceX, Anthropic, Claude, TPU, Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Muse AI, FactSet, Piranha Profits, Wealth Academy
## Video description
【Adam Khoo】
巨头财报暴雷？亚马逊、谷歌、Meta负现金流，是危机还是机会？
Hyperscalers Crash After Earnings. Is it a Sell?
Adam Khoo 认为，Alphabet、Meta 和亚马逊等超大规模云服务巨头因自由现金流转负而遭遇财报后抛售，纯属市场的短期恐慌性错判。他指出，巨头现金流转负源于抢建 AI 数据中心的高壁垒发展性开支及一次性非经营性账面扰动，主营业务造血能力与护城河依然稳固，大幅回调反而提供了折价买入机会。
发展性开支与负自由现金流辨析 (4:07)
自由现金流转负通常有两种诱因：一是主营造血恶化导致经营现金流萎缩，这属于需要警惕并清仓的实质风险；二是经营现金流稳健增长，但企业短期内激增资本开支（CapEx）。超大规模科技巨头显然属于后者。过去 12 个月（TTM）中，谷歌经营现金流同比增长 19%，Meta 增长 24%，亚马逊增长 29%，主营业务依然强劲。
在评估资本开支时，必须区分维持性开支与发展性开支。维持性开支（如航空公司维护旧机）无法拓宽护城河，只会吞噬资金；而科技巨头当前的开支是主动出击的发展性投资，旨在争夺 AI 基础设施的领导地位。发展性开支虽然短期压低了账面自由现金流，但本质是未来经营现金流与利润实现指数级爆发的前提。
一次性事件与账面数据的失真 (11:14)
巨头财报中吓退散户的诸多负面指标，深入拆解后均属非经营性或周期性短期因素。谷歌三季度每股收益下滑 26%，主因是对 SpaceX 投资产生的按市值计价未实现账面亏损；单季现金流波动则源于欧盟反垄断罚金和为销售自研 TPU 芯片提前备货造成的存货资金占用。剔除扰动后，其营业利润增长 30%，云业务营收暴增 103% 且营业利润率从 23% 跃升至 36%；搜索业务增速放缓至 12% 主要是受汇率折损、高基数以及 AI 查询变现滞后的过渡期影响。
Meta 与亚马逊同样面临账面数字失真。Meta 账面营业利润看似下滑 37%，实因计入了 98.9 亿美元的和解诉讼专项罚金，剔除后实际增长 11%；其 37.5 亿美元的股权融资仅带来约 2.4% 的理论稀释，股价却过度暴跌 12%。亚马逊净利看似下滑，是由于去年同期计入了 Anthropic 投资产生的 90 亿美元一次性账面浮盈，加之 Prime Day 移至二季度造成基数扰动，而其实际营业利润强劲增长了 61%。
正常化现金流估值与折价支撑位 (15:17)
在进行现金流折现（DCF）估值时，若直接使用当期被天量资本开支压低的负自由现金流，会导致内在价值严重失真。为此，Adam Khoo 采用“正常化自由现金流”方法，即用最新经营现金流扣除过去五年的平均资本开支，以平滑短期激增的发展性投资对企业长期造血能力的掩盖。
经平滑测算，谷歌正常化自由现金流约为 1170 亿美元，在下调长期增速至 15% 的保守假设下，测得其每股内在价值约为 370 美元（自动化模型测算为 377 美元），相比约 283 美元的市价存在约 24% 的折价空间，关键技术支撑位位于 274 美元和 243 美元。Meta 的正常化现金流基准为 790 亿美元，保守内在价值在 900 至 1200 美元之间，市场折价超 30%。亚马逊营业利润率达历史新高的 13.9%，估算内在价值为 233 美元，其核心支撑位在 226 美元附近。
AI革命的三阶段与价值迁移路径 (32:33)
Adam Khoo 将本轮 AI 产业演进划分为三个连续阶段，以解释巨头当前的现金流承压与未来的轮动逻辑。当前处于第一阶段，以英伟达、AMD 等芯片设计商及电力能源企业为代表的“基础设施赋能者”抽取了行业绝大多数利润，而巨头作为基建采购方，必须承担天量 CapEx、账面折旧并承受被压缩的短期现金流。
在预计于明年开启的第二阶段，巨头在 AI 数据中心上的资本开支增速将逐步放缓，芯片与能源商的超额增长将趋于平缓，巨头则将依托已建成的庞大计算底座，通过高利润率的企业云与 AI 应用服务释放复利回报。到 2029 年及以后的第三阶段，AI 基础设施将全面下沉赋能医疗、工业制造与可选消费等传统垂直行业，最终由这些终端实体企业通过生产力革命收获最高维度的运营杠杆和利润率扩张。
Adam Khoo 认为，三大科技巨头的核心经济护城河与定价权仍在持续增强，基本面并无结构性恶化，眼下的负现金流主要是重资产投资期的必经阵痛。然而，短期股价受市场情绪与非理性抛售主导，无法精准预测底部，投资者需通过分批买入控制回撤，并持续观察资本开支向云服务与 AI 软件变现传导的实际节奏。
Source quotes
[4:07] Adam Khoo: Growth capex allows a company to increase its economic moat, its revenue, its income and its cash flow in the future.
[23:25] Adam Khoo: The market tends to overreact to bad news. And so if you take advantage of the overreaction, that's how you get good deals in the market.
Original transcript
[0:00] In the most recent earnings report, hyperscalers like your Amazon, your Meta platforms and your Alphabet or Google reported negative free cash flow. And some investors are freaking out and say, oh my god, they're going to die and selling them off. So what should we do as intelligent investors? How do we value these companies? And are they still worth investing in? Let's find out more in this video. . - We are currently in the middle of the quarter three earnings season, and so far it hasn't been kind to many of the hyperscalers that I own. So for example, Alphabet that owns Google and YouTube down 13% after it reported earnings. Meta platforms that reported a few days ago down 7% after earnings In fact, it was down 12% and then it rebounded, but it's still down 7%. And Amazon down 7.8% yesterday after earnings. So why are they all selling off? Well, there are many reasons, which I've got to cover in this video, but the main reason that's freaking investors out is that their free cash flow is negative as you can see over here. So what does that mean? So free cash flow basically means how much cash they are generating from their business called cash from operations. minus the capital expenditure, capex, what's left? That's the free cash flow. So ordinarily, we want a great business to have positive free cash flow that's growing, right? But the free cash flow is negative. So is it something to be worried about? Well, the answer to me is no, and I'll explain why in a short while. But let's look at what's great about these companies. Number one, top line growth. I look at revenue growth and it's growing very well. You can see, Alphabet, Google up 25%, revenue growth, man up 26%, Amazon, ex-foreign exchange changes is up 13%. Next. operating income growth so i like to look at operating income not net income because net income can be distorted by non-operating expenses and income like for example mergers, acquisitions and so and so forth. I like to look at operating income. So operating income also doing very well. Google growing 30% Now you may see hey, matter is down 37%, why? That is a one-off issue because they paid a big, well not big, actually a small fine to settle their social media addiction lawsuit if you recall. So if you remove that, they actually grew 11% in terms of operating income. Amazon growing 61% in terms of operating income. Now what's more important is the operating cash flow growth So you can see Google's operating cash flow grew at 19% year on year, sorry last 12 months Mather grew 24% last 12 months. Amazon grew 29% last 12 months. In terms of quarter three year on year, Meta is up 9%, Amazon up 19%. So some people are concerned that, hey, Google's operating cash flow in quarter three is down 13%. Again, I'm not concerned because this negative number came for from two one-off reasons. Number one, because of the EU fine. You know, these companies get fined all the time, right? So they paid the fine in quarter three, and their cash operations turn negative for this quarter because of inventory buildup before their TPU sales. Now what's TPU? as you guys know Amazon and Google are now selling semiconductors in a way they're competing with Nvidia right so Google's AI chips they are selling are called TPUs. Now before they sell the TPU, uh they have to put it in their inventory and inventory causes the negative to the cash flow, because cash is stuck in the inventory. Later when they sell it to the customers, the cash will come in in 2027. So because of this inventory buildup and the EU fine, it caused their operating cash flow to go negative for this quarter. And it's something I'm totally not concerned about because it's not that the business is not doing well, business is doing very well because of inventory timing and that stupid fine, it turned negative. Now, let me talk about the main concern that investors have, which is the free cash flow turned negative. Now, why am I not concerned at all? Let me explain it with some drawing. So first of all, free cash flow is equal to the operating cash flow, operating cash flow. cash flow minus capital expenditure, right? So this is the formula for free cash flow. Now, when the free cash flow turns negative, There are two reasons why.
[5:00] If free cash flow turns negative because the operating cash flow is declining, that is bad. that's a bad thing. So those are companies where they are generating less and less cash for their businesses. We don't want to invest in them. We want to get out of them. However, in the case of Amazon and Meta and Microsoft and Google, their operating cash flow is growing very well. So they're generating more cash from their business, right? So this is going up. But why is there free cash flow going down is because their capex has gone up recently. Why has their capex gone up? Because they are investing billions and billions building these data centers to solidify their leadership in the AI revolution. So because this has gone up, it caused this to go down temporarily. Now, is it a good or bad thing for a company to invest a lot in capex? It depends. There are two kinds of cat-backs. The first is called maintenance capex. And the second is what we call growth capex. So if a company has to spend more and more on maintenance capex, like for example, an airline business, they have to spend a lot of money to repair the airplanes, to replace the old airplanes with new airplanes, that's called maintenance capex. That sucks up the cash flow, that is bad. That's why I don't invest in airlines, because they keep spending so much money just to maintain their current business. But if a company spends on growth capex, which means they invest in data centers, or they invest in, new factories, new markets, that's a good thing because growth capex will cause what will cause their operating cash flow to increase even more in the future. And that will cause a free cash flow to increase even more in the future. So in the case of the hyperscalers, it is not maintenance capex, it is growth capex. Growth capex allows a company to increase its economic mode, its revenue, its income and its cash flow in the future. So people who are short term minded, "Oh my God, they're spending so much money, sell, get out." But you're long term minded like me, we see it as an opportunity to take advantage of the short-term volatility to accumulate these businesses to generate significant more profits in the future. So let me give you an analogy. So let's imagine there's a guy who let's say he earns a salary of $5,000 a month. So that's his cash inflow. And let's say he has to spend on stuff his monthly expenses and he spends let's say four thousand on transportation on food on entertainment so he's able to save a thousand dollars a month What is this? This is in a way his free cash flow. Now imagine this guy is very ambitious. He said, "I'm not happy earning 5,000 a month. I want to eventually earn 10,000, 20,000, 100,000, a million a month. What would he do? He would have to invest in himself. He would have to, spent on capex right so he'll take lots of courses you he'll take an investing course to learn to invest into trade options for example he would take a leadership course you'll take an AI course you may get a master's degree whatever it is right so he spends all this money upgrading himself that's called capex so let's imagine that he spends you know $2,000 on himself upgrading every month and to finance it, he takes some loans from the bank in order to finance all these causes. What happens to his free cash flow? His free cash flow will now become minus $1,000. And you may say, oh my God, he's now losing $1,000 a month, right? So again, question, is this a good thing or bad thing? It depends on how you see it. If you're his girlfriend and you say, oh, he can't spend his money on me anymore. He can't bring me to nice places. He's a broke mother. And I'm going to leave him. So you leave the guy and find a guy who can spend on you and you miss out on his future gains or his future increase in income. But then he gets a new girlfriend who understands that he is investing in himself and in the future he makes what? A million dollars a year, 10 million dollars a year. And then the second girlfriend would benefit from it. Now, of course, if you are Lady listening to this, switch it around, okay? Turn around the genders, okay? Now, this is what happened to me. So when I was younger, my girlfriends were complaining, oh, I don't spend enough time with them. I don't spend so much money on them because I was investing in myself. I took lots of courses on NLP, on investing. I read lots of books. I spent more money on books and courses than I did on my earlier girlfriends. And they left me. They called me a broke mother.
[10:00] - Right? But today I make what? Six, $7 million a year. And who benefits? My wife. Because she's an intelligent investor. Now of course the negative free cash flow is not the only concern. that cause investors to sell off these hyperscalers. There are a few other concerns that I'd like to address right now. Now remember, when you own a stock, a business, and the share price falls because certain fundamentals have declined, The question you're going to ask is, is the decline cyclical? Is it a short-term decline? temporary issue. or is it a long term structural issue that will persist? So if it's a temporary psychical issue, Then no need to panic, hold the shares and in fact, buy more at a bigger discount. But if it's a long-term structural issue, which means the economic mode is deteriorating, then that's a reason to sell the stock. So that's an important question asked, psychical or structural? So let's look at what are the concerns and fears. So let's start with Alphabet or Google. So there are again some other concerns. First concern was that earnings per share fell 26% and miss the analyst estimates. So what happened? Was it temporary or something that's affecting the long-term business performance, right? And the answer is totally a one-off temporary issue. The reason their earnings per share fell is because of unrealized mark to market loss on Google's investment in SpaceX. If you exclude that their operating income actually rose 30%. Okay, so that's not a concern. Number two, their operating cash flow fell 13% for the quarter. I already explained it earlier on because of the EU fine. and because of the inventory buildup of their TPU AI chips before they sell them and the cash comes in. Again, this is a one-off cyclical issue, no concern at all. Now the third issue is that the Search, as you know, Google, traditionally they make money on search advertising, when you search for things online and you get all those search results and you click on the sponsored links That's how Google makes money, right? So their search growth was initially growing at 17%. So And in this quarter, they reported 12%. So there's a deceleration in their surge growth. And people are freaking out and say, "Oh my God, "that means that Their search business is dying is being cannibalized by their AI results which are not being monetized as well and that's why oh my god you're gonna die they're gonna get killed and selling them off right so Here's the fact. The fact is that before AI started, their surge growth was actually between -2% on certain quarters to 13% on certain quarters. That's the range. Before AI started right now when AI began and Google launched their AI overviews and their AI mode, which we all use today, their search growth, grew from minus two to 13% range, grew to 17% in quarter four last year, 19% in quarter one this year, and 17% in quarter three. to this year. and quarter three, it slowed back to 12%. Now, is that a bad thing? No, because at 12%, it is still at the upper range of where it was before AI started. So the sell off doesn't make any sense. Thank you. And the reason why the search growth decelerated to 12% this quarter, there are three reasons. The main reason is because of the the rebound in the US dollar causing them to earn less when they convert euros and pounds back to US dollars. So it was an FX. Uh... short term issue, right? The second issue is because some of the APAC retail advertisers pulled back after the EU scrapped their import exemption. and media spend normalized after an unusually strong June loaded with World Cup matches. Yeah. The third reason, which is the smallest reason, is because AI mode queries are growing fast and currently monetizes at a lower rate than classical search results. So it's a monetization lag and it's the same thing that happened when Google shifted from a desktop to mobile many years ago. So if you really scrutinize all these issues, you can see that there are no signs of a declining business. The business is growing.
[15:00] Doing very well. Revenue up 25%. They are 13 straight quarter of double digit growth. Google clout up 103%. where their margins are up 23% to 36% and their surge at 12% growth is the highest in five years. So, is it a dying business? Is it a declining business? Well, you make your decision. To me, nope. There's nothing wrong with this business at all. Now, next question is, what are the shares worth? What's the intrinsic value? Let me show you how I calculate the intrinsic value of Google and then later Meta and then Amazon. So before I show you the intrinsic value calculation, let me show you once again, the operating cash flow and the free cash flow. So over here you can see that for Google or Alphabet, what's happening? Revenue is growing very, very nicely, right? So that's revenue. Operating income growing very nicely as well. and operating cash flow in orange is growing very nicely as well. The thing that has dropped is the free cash flow. Can you see the free cash flow over here? Let me use a different color. So the one in dark black, you can see that is growing. and then it dropped here. So this is freaking people out. The drop in the um in the free cash flow. So like I explained, the reason the free cash flow drop is not because the operating cash flow Drop. Operating cash flow doing very well is because the capital expenditure has gone up significantly because of growth capex. Okay, now how do we calculate the intrinsic value? of the stock. So normally to calculate intrinsic value, we have to project the current free cash flow, over the next 20 years. and then we discount it to present value. But if you do that with the current free cash flow, you get a very low number. because The current free cash flow is, artificially depressed by the high capex. So to calculate a fair intrinsic value, what must we do? We cannot use the latest free cash flow. We have to use what is called a normalized free cash flow. So let me explain what that means. and you can actually do this yourself once you understand this. So let me just show you the numbers here. Let's go to the cash flow statement. Okay, there we are. So over here you can see that this is the operating cash flow. and you can see it's been growing Growing, growing, growing, growing, growing, right? And the capex capital expenditure here. you can see it has been growing as well. So if you take the operating cash flow, this minus this, you will get the free cash flow. which is now very low because of the high cap backs. So to calculate the normalized free cash flow, what I do is this, I take the latest cash from operations, which is this one, this is the cash. flow from operations, I take this and I minus the average capex of the last five years. So one, two, three, four, five. This is the last five years, right? 31 billion, 32 billion, 52 billion, 91 billion and 132 billion. So I take these five numbers Add it together, divide by five to get the average. capex of the last five years. So when I take the current cash from operations minus the five year average, I get the normalized free cash flow. So this is the number that I use to value the business. Now I've already done the calculation and what's the answer? The answer is the normalized free cash flow. the normalized free cash flow is for Google is 117. Thank you. $6,5,1 million, $117 billion. So we will use this in the intrinsic value calculator. So to do that, let me show you where it is. go to the intrinsic value calculator here. Thank you. And again, you can see if you scroll down, and we're going to use free cash flow. Oops, not this one. Free cash flow. you can see that if you project the latest free cash flow which is artificially low, you get a very low intrinsic value, which is unrealistic. We need to normalize the free cash flow. So we will put in the normalized free cash flow which is 117,
[20:00] 651. This will be more realistic. Okay. And you can see the growth rate that is used to project the business is based on the consensus analyst estimates provided by FactSet, which is 18% growth the next five years and then long term 16% growth. over here. Now you can take those numbers, But for me, I'm usually more conservative. where in growth year six to 10, I do not take anything more than 15%. I will cap it at 15%. So I'm gonna cap it at 15% here. and then I'm going to calculate based on this normalized free cash flow and this lower growth rate. calculate. Tada! What do I get? I get an intrinsic value of about $370. There you go. Now, if this is too much work for you, you say, I just want a shortcut. Very simple, you can just look at the Oracle value that comes up with a very similar number by normalizing the free cash flow and adjusting the growth rates, which is over here, there we are. So the Oracle value is 377, which is roughly about 370, roughly about there. And at current share price of 283, it is about 24% under value. So great company, undervalued. Does it mean that the share price will go up tomorrow? The moment Adam announces this, the price will go up to 370 and beyond? Of course not. Right? So this tells you what the shares are worth. It doesn't mean the price will get there tomorrow. The price can still go lower. Because in the short term, the price is driven by, not logic, not fundamentals, but driven by, emotions and manipulation and all kinds of things that happen in the market. But what it does tell me is that in the long run, Google will continue growing and growing and growing, and it's worth 370, which means it's gonna go back to 370 and higher over time. When that will happen, I've got no idea. Could be next week, could be next month, could be next year. I don't know right by the short term the price is going down because of manipulation and fear and of course it could go lower right so that's why what's important is to identify support levels if you look at a chart of Google here you can notice I've identified these are the Um... These are the technical support levels. And recently, you can see the price. wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down. wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down, wave up, wave down. So it's currently approaching this support level over here. 274 is a strong support So if it hits here, this could be a level to add shares because A support level basically means that historically, there has been more demand and supply to reverse the price up at this support level. So it could bounce back up here. But if it breaks this support, then of course, you have another very strong support at 243. And that's why when I add shares, I never go all in at one level because you can never pick the absolute bottom, but I add in tranches. I add slowly in tranches over time at dollar cost average in until I've got a full position, and then I don't add anymore. Let's very quickly look at the other two stops, the other two hyperscalers, right? So Meta, so Meta dropped as well, dropped 12%, but it seems rebounded, but it's down 7% from earnings. Again, what's the fear? uh... Again, besides the negative free cash flow, which I've addressed, the other fear is that operating income fell 37% and they missed their earnings per share guidance, if you will, right? But why? Why did it happen? Okay, it's because of their... lawsuit settlement. They were sued for the teen mental health addiction trial if you guys recall and they were supposed to be fined like a billion dollars, but in the end they paid a small amount, a small slap on the wrist. of about 9.89 billion charge. So if you take that away, then their operating income actually went up 11%. So again, is this cyclical or is it structural? It's cyclical, it's a one-off thing that will not recur. The other concern is that MEDA is raising money by selling shares. So people think, "Oh my God, it's going to dilute my shares." So they panic and they sell. Okay, now why are they raising money? Again, to finance their capex growth. So they are financing it using debt, and some equity. So how much are they raising? They are raising 37.5 billion in equity. So when a company sells shares to raise money, does it dilute the shareholders? It does. But the question is how much does it dilute it by? And number two,
[25:00] - In the long run, will this capital grow the pie even more? The answer is, I think it will grow the pie even more. So I'm not too concerned. But the actual dilution, if you do the mathematics, is a 2.4% share dilution of current shareholders. So logically, the share price should drop 2.4%, right? but it dropped 12%, alright? So the market tends to overreact. to bad news. And so if you take advantage of the overreaction, that's how you get good deals in the market. If you look at the underlying business, you can see it's doing very well, just like Alphabet, revenue up 26%. third straight quarter above 25%, ad revenue grew at 25% and they are guiding their quarterfall revenue at $73-76 billion. Ad impressions grew 10%, price per ad grew 14%, which is a sign of very strong pricing power and a very strong economic mode. and the daily active people, which means 3.64 billion people, use Facebook, Instagram or WhatsApp daily up 3%. So, Again, is it a dying business? Is it a declining business? you make your decision. To me, it's a business that's getting stronger and more and more dominant, especially now that they've launched their recent Muse AI agent, that has become very popular. The number one downloaded app in the US and now just came to Singapore, I'm playing with it now. So again, you can calculate the intrinsic value by doing the same thing I showed you earlier on. calculating the normalized free cash flow, taking the current cash from operations minus the five year average capex, that should give you a normalized free cash flow of of 79 billion dollars. So if you put in $79 billion into the intrinsic value calculator and you project it at the growth rates you get roughly about $1,000 to about $1,200 intrinsic value. That's right. But you can see that the auto value actually is more conservative and shows a valuation of $900. So this is actually very, very. conservative using a much lower growth rate than what people are using. And even at the very conservative valuation, Google, sorry, not Google, Meta is 31% undervalued. Again, like I said, Does it mean that a matter will shoot to $900 and 1000 tomorrow? Of course not, right? Short term, it can still go lower. You can never predict the short term, but long run, you know, it's going to keep growing and growing, growing, and it's worth at least 900, to a thousand plus dollars, right? And if you look at the chart again, you can see It's been chopping around over here, very strong support at the 150 green line, 150 on the weekly time frame, right? So you can see wave up, bounce, bounce, bounce, it looks like it could be bouncing here, but if not, it could bounce here and then, likely it's gonna go back higher by the end of the year. I can't predict 100% but that's just my guess. Finally, let's take a look at Amazon. Again, besides the negative free cash flow, which I've explained earlier on, the other two fears people have about Amazon that caused a sell-off was that their earnings per share fell year on year and their revenue missed expectations and their ad revenue slowed to 12%. So again, what actually happened? Is it a cyclical issue or a structural long-term issue that's affecting the business economic mode? First, the reason the earnings per share fell from last year to this year is because last year, 2025 Quarter 3. the profit was unusually artificially propped up by a 9% sorry, a $9 billion gain on Amazon's stake in Anthropic, which you know owns Claude, which is going IPO this year. So last year, there was a one-time gain of $9 billion, This year there's no gain, so it caused that drop. Again, if you take that out of the equation, This year, Amazon's operating income is actually up 61%. So it was distorted because of their stake in Anthropik. So again, it's a one-time, issue. that is nothing to do with the actual business of Amazon. Second, why did their revenue miss expectations? Because their prime day, which they sell the most, moved from quarter three this year to quarter two. And if you don't include this shift, their growth would have been 4% higher in fact. and there was also an FX cost of 0.9 billion because of the stronger US dollar in the last three months. So again, is it a cyclical issue? Yes, it's a timing issue, and their forward guidance already shows a strong rebound in revenue and earnings per share.
[30:00] If you look at the underlying business metrics, Their Amazon Web Services grew 39%. the fastest in five years. and management is guiding over 40% growth in 2027 and 2028. The backlog is growing Their operating income up 61%, operating margin 13.9%, the highest in Amazon's history. And for quarter four, they are guiding sales growth of 12 to 16%. and operating income of 28.5 to 33.5 billion, which is much higher than what was expected. So again, to me, this is not a declining business. It's in fact a business that's getting even more profitable and even more dominant. Now, if you calculate Amazon's intrinsic value, and again, I've shown you how to do it, it is about $233 intrinsic value. There we are, Oracle value 233, exactly over here, as you can see. So it announced yesterday So the market is pricing in a 6.8% drop today. whether it will drop I don't know but if it drops to 226 that will be at the first support level you can see there's a pretty strong support level 226 and that would make it slightly undervalued all right you can see again you know wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down these are small waves and wave up big wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down wave up big wave down wave up wave down wave up wave down you can see these waves are very very predictable right so wave up wave down so if you ask me to guess it would probably wave down to the first support level and bounce all the way back up again. I can't 100% predict, but I'm just guessing that this will be a pretty strong support before the year-end rally. Remember, we are currently in phase one of the AI revolution. We're going to go into phase two next year and subsequently phase three. I'll talk a lot more about this during the Black Market X event coming up in November. But to give you a bit of an idea, what I'll be talking about, of the many things I'll talk about is in phase one. The enablers are the ones that are gonna have the highest profit. So enablers are like your AMD, your Nvidia, in other words, your semiconductors and AI power producers. they will capture most of the profits. But in phase one, it is the hyperscalers that are spending on capex that will be squeezed by lower free cash flow, squeezed by depreciation. But in phase two, Once the CapEx growth decelerates, which means the hyperscalers spend less on CapEx, you will see that the semiconductors and the AI power producers, they may decelerate from there, but then the hyperscaler cloud and AI revenue will compound on a bigger in stock base. And then finally in phase three, which is 2029 beyond, you find that the companies in healthcare, consumer discretionary and industrials which are called the adopters, will have the highest margin expansion. So it's all about knowing how to position your portfolio to capture the highest value in all three phases. I'll go into greater detail in the upcoming live Black Market X webinars in November. And I look forward to seeing you there. We'll give you more details in a while, how you can enroll in these live webinars called Black Market X. So with that, thank you for listening to this pretty long webinar. I hope it's been useful. And as always, may the markets be with you. And let's get ready for the year-end rally. If you wanna catch my latest videos, click on the subscribe button right now. Click on the bell so you get instant notifications once I upload my latest video. online courses, go to piranaprofits.com We're going to learn how to invest and how to trade the financial markets and create an income from all around the world. If you want to join my live Wealth Academy program, go on to wealthacademyglobal.com and find out more about how you can learn investing and trading live. This is Adam Koo and may the markets be with you.
