Religions and babies | Hans Rosling

TED

AI-assisted summary of Religions and babies | Hans Rosling — original source. Check the original for full context.

Source published: 2012-05-22

Key ideas

Empirical census data reveals that religion does not dictate family size, as fertility rates across Christian, Muslim, and Eastern-majority countries have converged dramatically over recent decades. (4:42)
By 2010, 80 percent of the world's population lived in countries averaging roughly two children per woman, matching replacement-level fertility despite vast differences in national income. (4:42)
Demographic growth among children has officially halted at two billion, marking the milestone of 'peak child' and setting up global population to stabilize at around ten billion. (7:35)
Future population expansion from seven to ten billion will stem not from higher birth rates or longer lifespans, but from demographic momentum termed 'the big fill-up' as smaller older generations are replaced by existing cohorts. (10:36)

Detailed notes

## Background Published on YouTube by TED on May 22, 2012, this talk features Hans Rosling speaking at the TEDxSummit in Doha, Qatar. The presentation explores whether specific religions yield higher birth rates and examines the resulting impact on global population growth using Gapminder demographic data across history.

## TL;DR Hans Rosling investigates the relationship between religion, wealth, and birth rates, demonstrating that religious doctrine does not dictate family size. While low fertility was once limited to wealthy Western nations in 1960, the modern world has converged across Muslim, Christian, and Eastern-majority societies, with roughly 80 percent of people now living in countries averaging about two children per woman. Rosling explains that family size declines due to improved child survival, poverty reduction, female education, and access to family planning. Furthermore, he reveals that the world has already reached 'peak child' at two billion, and the eventual rise to 10 billion people will occur naturally through 'the big fill-up' as existing generations age.

## Atmosphere & style The presentation is energetic, witty, and intellectually refreshing, propelled by Rosling’s signature dry humor and showman-like data storytelling. Using vibrant Gapminder bubble charts alongside improvised physical props like cardboard shipping boxes, he demystifies dense statistics with infectious enthusiasm. The emotional arc moves smoothly from playful myth-busting to an urgent, authoritative mandate, leaving the audience both enlightened by demographic realities and focused on realistic planning for humanity's future.

## Bulletin - [04:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=282s) Empirical census data reveals that religion does not dictate family size, as fertility rates across Christian, Muslim, and Eastern-majority countries have converged dramatically over recent decades. - [04:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=282s) By 2010, 80 percent of the world's population lived in countries averaging roughly two children per woman, matching replacement-level fertility despite vast differences in national income. - [07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=455s) Demographic growth among children has officially halted at two billion, marking the milestone of 'peak child' and setting up global population to stabilize at around ten billion. - [10:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=636s) Future population expansion from seven to ten billion will stem not from higher birth rates or longer lifespans, but from demographic momentum termed 'the big fill-up' as smaller older generations are replaced by existing cohorts.

## Key takeaways - [00:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=15s) Popular narratives of unchecked population explosion often mistakenly blame religious prohibitions against family planning. - [02:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=125s) In 1960, small families of two to three children were largely restricted to wealthy Christian countries, with Japan as the lone non-Christian anomaly. - [02:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=125s) High fertility rates in 1960 were shared equally across poor and middle-income Christian, Muslim, and Eastern-majority nations. - [04:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=282s) The fertility transition progressed rapidly across diverse cultures, leading to low fertility in countries like Iran, Turkey, Algeria, Bangladesh, and Vietnam regardless of income levels. - [04:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=282s) High fertility rates today are primarily concentrated in fragile, low-income nations facing high child mortality, such as Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. - [04:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=282s) High child mortality accelerates population growth rather than slowing it, because parents produce extra births to compensate for anticipated child loss. - [07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=455s) Government data from Qatar and global demographic evidence show that fertility declines are driven by delayed marriage, female education, and women's integration into the workforce. - [07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=455s) The four universal drivers of declining fertility are increased child survival, poverty alleviation, female education and employment, and access to family planning. - [07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=455s) The world has already reached 'peak child,' with the global child population leveling off at two billion children. - [10:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=636s) Demographic momentum, or 'the big fill-up,' will inevitably expand the total human population to roughly ten billion without requiring any increase in fertility or life expectancy. - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) Global religions have consistently shown the capacity to maintain their core values while adapting to smaller family sizes. - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) Future resource and energy planning must realistically budget for a world of ten billion people while continuing to address extreme poverty and child mortality.

## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:15](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=15s) Framing the Debate: Religion, Babies, and Population Growth

Hans Rosling opens his presentation by tackling religion, a topic he acknowledges is both vast and sensitive. With dry humor, he announces that to keep the discussion manageable, he will narrow his focus strictly to the intersection of religion and sexuality, prompting immediate laughter from the audience. Setting aside the joke, he emphasizes the gravity of the subject, recalling the intimacy of a young couple whispering their intention to conceive a child. His central inquiry is whether and how different religions impact the number of children born per woman across the world.

This question carries immense global significance given the obvious constraints on how many people Earth can sustainably support. Rosling observes that popular discourse often relies on an alarming narrative of unchecked expansion: world population stood at three billion in 1960 and climbed to seven billion by 2011. Proponents of this view argue that certain religious doctrines prohibit or discourage family planning, implying that fertility rates will keep compounding indefinitely. To evaluate this claim, Rosling poses a historical and future quiz about global childhood demographics:

> “When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, and today, 2000, there's almost two billion.”

He asks the audience to guess what experts project will happen to the global child count over the course of the twenty-first century: will it drop to one billion, plateau at two billion, expand incrementally each year, or accelerate unchecked to four billion? He promises to reveal the empirical answer by the end of his talk.

[02:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=125s) Mapping Religions and Fertility in 1960

Classifying world religions for data analysis proves trickier than expected. Rosling notes that standard Wikipedia maps either oversimplify the world into broad categories of Abrahamic versus Eastern traditions or fragment major faiths like Christianity, Islam, and Buddhism into a dizzying array of sub-sects. To strike an informative balance, the Gapminder team created its own visual map. Each nation is represented as a bubble scaled to its population—led by massive bubbles for China and India—and color-coded by its majority religion, defined as any faith claimed by more than 50 percent of the populace:

- **Eastern religions (red):** Dominant in India, China, and neighboring Asian nations. - **Islam (green):** Majority across a continuous band running from the Atlantic coast of North Africa across the Middle East, Southern Europe, and Asia all the way to Indonesia. - **Christianity (blue):** Predominant across the Americas, Europe, large parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, and selected Asian countries. - **Unclassified (white):** Nations where no single faith secures a 50 percent majority, or where demographic data remains contested.

Plotting the world as it stood in 1960, Rosling sets income per person on the horizontal axis and the total fertility rate (ranging from two to six or more babies per woman) on the vertical axis. The prevailing historical assumption held that societies had to achieve economic prosperity before fertility could decline. Indeed, in 1960, small families were almost exclusively confined to wealthy Christian societies, with Japan standing as the sole non-Christian anomaly. Elsewhere, fertility remained exceptionally high: Christian nations in Latin America and Africa averaged six to seven babies per woman, while virtually every Muslim-majority nation and Eastern-religion country mirrored that same high fertility rate of six to seven children, regardless of wealth.

```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: Gapminder 1960 Demographics Baseline accDescr: Chart showing how wealth, religion, and fertility were grouped in 1960. subgraph LowFertility ["Low Fertility (2-3 children)"] A["Wealthy Christian Nations"] B["Japan (Sole Eastern Exception)"] end subgraph HighFertility ["High Fertility (6-7 children)"] C["Muslim-Majority Nations (All Incomes)"] D["Latin American & African Christian Nations"] E["Eastern Religion Nations (China, India)"] end ```

[04:42](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=282s) The Great Global Convergence and the Income Myth

Running the animation forward from 1962 demonstrates an astonishing historical shift that challenges conventional wisdom. As global incomes rose incrementally, birth rates plummeted across diverse cultural and religious landscapes. China experienced a steep drop, while Muslim-majority nations and middle-income Christian nations saw their fertility lines collapse in tandem toward lower levels. By the turn of the twenty-first century, more than half of the human population lived in low-fertility regions.

> “And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans who live in countries with about two children per woman.”

Rosling underscores the sheer breadth of this transformation: the low-fertility cluster now includes nations as diverse as the United States ($40,000 per capita), France, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, Indonesia, India, Bangladesh, and Vietnam. Remarkably, countries like Bangladesh and Vietnam share the same fertility rate as the United States despite possessing less than 5 percent of its per capita income. Rosling notes that child-per-woman metrics are exceptionally reliable because they derive directly from comprehensive national census records rather than speculative polling.

The empirical record disproves the notion that wealth or religion dictates birth rates. In modern data, no Eastern-religion nation averages more than three children per woman, while Christian and Muslim countries exhibit a similar wide distribution. The remaining high-fertility nations—mostly averaging around six births per woman—are located in low-income, fragile settings, including Sub-Saharan Africa, Guatemala, Papua New Guinea, Yemen, and war-torn states like Afghanistan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Rosling dispels the common misconception that war and high mortality restrain population expansion. High child mortality actually drives rapid demographic growth because families produce additional births to compensate for tragic losses. Consequently, over the next 30 years, Afghanistan is projected to surge from 30 million to 60 million people, while the Democratic Republic of the Congo will expand from 60 million to 120 million.

[07:35](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=455s) The Four Drivers of Low Fertility and "Peak Child"

Even within lower-income settings, significant progress is underway. Tracing Senegal (a Muslim-majority nation) and Ghana (a Christian-majority nation) from their independence in the early 1960s to the present reveals that both transitioned from roughly seven children per woman down to between four and five.

An even sharper parallel exists between Bangladesh and Qatar. Despite vast disparities in economic resources, both nations achieved an identical, rapid reduction in family size between their independence in the early 1970s and 2010. Looking directly into official publications from the statistical authority of Qatar, Rosling reads the factors Qatari demographers credit for this change:

> “These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, and they say the most important factors are: 'Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force.'”

Rosling affirms that empirical social science corroborates these Qatari findings completely. Across the world, four interrelated factors consistently drive the reduction in family size:

1. Improving child survival rates so parents do not need backup births. 2. Lifting families out of severe poverty so children are not required for manual labor. 3. Expanding female educational attainment and workforce participation. 4. Ensuring universal access to modern family planning (endorsing Melinda French Gates's contemporary TED Talk on contraception).

```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: The Four Drivers of Fertility Reduction accDescr: Four essential social and health factors required to bring down fertility rates. subgraph Drivers ["Key Drivers of Demographic Transition"] F1["Child Survival Increases"] F2["Poverty Reduction (Children Not Needed for Labor)"] F3["Women's Education & Labor Force Integration"] F4["Accessible Family Planning"] end Drivers --> Outcome["Fertility Drops to ~2 Children per Woman"] ```

Today, the global average fertility rate stands at approximately 2.4 children per woman—matching Colombia. Returning to his opening quiz, Rosling delivers the central revelation: the number of children in the world will level off at two billion. The world has officially crossed the threshold of "peak child." While public debate remains fixated on peak oil, demographic expansion among children has already halted, and the United Nations Population Division projects that total human population will stabilize around 10 billion.

[10:36](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=636s) The Cardboard Boxes and "The Big Fill-Up"

To explain how the global population will expand from seven to ten billion when the raw count of children is no longer growing, Rosling turns to an improvised physical visual aid: cardboard packaging boxes originally used to ship conference notebooks. Setting each box to represent exactly one billion people, he constructs a demographic tower representing the living population of seven billion:

- **0 to 15 years old (children):** Two boxes (two billion people). - **15 to 30 years old (young adults):** Two boxes (two billion people). - **30 to 45 years old:** One box (one billion people). - **45 to 60 years old:** Roughly one box (nearly one billion people). - **60+ years old:** One box at the summit, representing Rosling’s own demographic tier.

Looking at the structure, three billion people appear "missing" from the top tiers. Rosling explains that these older individuals were never born in the first place, because global birth cohorts prior to 1980 were far smaller than the two-billion cohorts of recent decades. Population growth over the coming century will not stem from higher fertility, but from what he terms "the big fill-up." As current age brackets advance, older generations will pass away and be replaced by existing cohorts aging upward, while each generation reproduces at the steady replacement rate of two billion children. Step by step, the population tower will naturally widen into a balanced column of ten billion people without any increase in the birth rate.

[12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) The "Great Fill-Up" and Planning for 10 Billion People

Amidst applause, Hans Rosling introduces what demographers call the "great fill-up," emphasizing that this upcoming wave of population growth is completely inevitable. He points out a crucial demographic reality that often eludes the public: this growth occurs naturally as existing generations mature and age, happening entirely without life expectancy getting longer and without families adding more children. Religion, he reiterates, plays virtually no role in determining fertility rates across nations. As Hans Rosling declares: “All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.”

Rosling argues that capping the global population at roughly ten billion is achievable, but it hinges entirely on concrete social and economic progress rather than religious doctrine. Achieving this stabilization requires that the poorest populations escape poverty, child survival rates improve, and women gain universal access to family planning. However, because generations of children already born will inevitably grow into adulthood, adding two to three billion more people to the planet cannot be prevented. In his closing mandate to leaders and policymakers, Hans Rosling stresses: “So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion.”

- **The mechanism of the "great fill-up":** Demographic momentum increases the world population without requiring an increase in average lifespan or a rise in the number of children born per woman. - **Necessary conditions to stabilize at 10 billion:** - Lifting the world's poorest populations out of extreme poverty. - Ensuring child survival so parents do not need large families as insurance. - Providing widespread access to modern family planning and contraception. - **Resource planning mandate:** Global models for future energy, food, and environmental resources must realistically account for an inevitable additional two to three billion people.

## Notable quotes > [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) When you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. — Hans Rosling

> [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. — Hans Rosling

## Mentioned Hans Rosling, TED, TEDxSummit, Gapminder, United Nations Population Division, Melinda French Gates, Qatar, Bangladesh, Senegal, Ghana, United States, France, Russia, Iran, Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, China, Japan, Guatemala, Papua New Guinea, Yemen, Afghanistan, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Colombia

## Video description http://www.ted.com Hans Rosling had a question: Do some religions have a higher birth rate than others -- and how does this affect global population growth? Speaking at the TEDxSummit in Doha, Qatar, he graphs data over time and across religions. With his trademark humor and sharp insight, Hans reaches a surprising conclusion on world fertility rates.

TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Closed captions and translated subtitles in a variety of languages are now available on TED.com, at http://www.ted.com/translate

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[Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78)

中文简报

宗教与生育率 | 汉斯·罗斯林汉斯·罗斯林探讨了宗教、财富与出生率之间的关系，表明宗教教义并不决定家庭规模。虽然在1960年低生育率仅局限于富裕的西方国家，但现代世界在穆斯林、基督教和东方人口占多数的社会中已经趋同，目前约有80%的人生活在平均每名妇女生育约两个孩子的国家。罗斯林解释称，家庭规模的缩小源于儿童存活率的提高、贫困的减少、女性受教育程度的提升以及获得计划生育服务的改善。此外，他透露全球已经达到了20亿的“儿童峰值”，而最终增长到100亿人口将随着现有世代老龄化，通过“大填充”自然发生。经验性人口普查数据表明，宗教并不能决定家庭规模，因为近几十年来，基督教、穆斯林和东方人口占多数的国家的生育率已大幅趋同。 (4:42) 到2010年，全球80%的人口生活在平均每名妇女生育约两个孩子的国家，尽管各国收入存在巨大差异，但均达到了世代更替水平的生育率。 (4:42) 儿童人口的增长已正式停留在20亿，标志着“儿童峰值”这一里程碑，并为全球人口稳定在100亿左右奠定了基础。 (7:35) 未来人口从70亿增长到100亿，并非源于更高的出生率或更长的寿命，而是来自被称为“大填充”的人口增长惯性，即较小规模的老年世代被现有世代所替代。 (10:36)

Detailed notes — zh

## Background 该视频由TED官方频道于2012年5月22日发布在YouTube平台上。视频记录了统计学家汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）在卡塔尔多哈举行的TEDxSummit大会上的演讲，他通过跨宗教与时间维度的详实数据图表，幽默而犀利地探讨了不同宗教是否会导致更高的出生率，以及这一现象如何影响全球人口增长。 ## TL;DR 汉斯·罗斯林通过Gapminder动态数据图表证明，宗教对妇女生育率几乎没有决定性影响，全球80%的人口如今已生活在每名妇女生育约2个孩子的低生育率国家。促使生育率下降的核心因素是儿童高存活率、摆脱极度贫困、女性赋权受教育以及普及避孕措施。全球儿童总数已达20亿峰值（Peak Child）并趋于稳定，未来人口从70亿增至100亿主要是由于既有人口自然步入成年的“大填补”过程，全球能源与资源规划必须做好迎接100亿人口的准备。 ## Atmosphere & style 整场演讲充满罗斯林标志性的生动幽默与敏锐洞察，在严肃的人口危机议题中穿插着诸如“今晚我们要造个宝宝”的诙谐调侃，让现场笑声不断。他熟练运用动态气泡图与现场纸箱等道具，将抽象枯燥的全球人口普查数据转化为直观震撼的视觉奇观。随着历史偏见被扎实的数据逐一打破，现场情绪从最初的好奇转为信服与敬佩，并在罗斯林呼吁正视百亿人口未来的有力警示中推向高潮，收获了全场热烈的掌声。 ## Bulletin - [10:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=614s) 全球已迎来“儿童峰值”（Peak Child），本世纪全球儿童总数将稳定在约20亿，未来人口总量的增长不再源于新生儿激增。 - [04:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=284s) 宗教与妇女生育率几乎没有直接联系；2010年全球已有80%的人口生活在妇女生育率仅约2个孩子的国家，无论其信奉何种宗教。 - [04:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=284s) 生育率下降不再是富裕国家的专利，孟加拉国和越南在人均收入不到美国5%的情况下，已达到与发达国家类似的低生育率。 - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) 未来世界人口从70亿增至100亿主要是由于结构性的“大填补”（the great fill-up），所有资源与能源规划都必须以100亿人口为基准进行考量。 ## Key takeaways - [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=0s) 全球总人口从1960年的30亿激增至2011年的70亿，引发公众对无节制增长与宗教阻碍节育的担忧。 - [02:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=125s) 在1960年，低生育率（每名妇女2至3个孩子）几乎是富裕基督教国家和日本所独有的现象，而中低收入国家生育率普遍高达6至7个孩子。 - [04:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=284s) 进入21世纪后全球生育率大幅下降，2010年已有80%的人口所处国家每名妇女生育数在2人左右，全球平均生育率已降至约2.4。 - [04:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=284s) 数据表明富裕不再是少生的前提条件，不同宗教信仰的国家在控制生育率方面没有显著差异。 - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=390s) 儿童死亡率最高的国家往往人口增长最快，因为极高的夭折率迫使家庭必须多生孩子进行补偿。 - [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=390s) 降低生育率的四大关键支柱是：提高儿童存活率、摆脱极度贫困、保障女性权益（推迟初婚、受教育与就业）以及普及计划生育与避孕工具。 - [10:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=614s) 全球儿童总数已经见顶于20亿（Peak Child），未来几十年儿童数量不会再出现翻倍增长。 - [10:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=614s) 通过纸箱演示的人口金字塔显示，未来人口增长是年轻一代步入中老年阶段的自然“大填补”（the great fill-up），而非生育率反弹。 - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) 世界各大宗教均展现出在维系精神价值观的同时，完全顺应低生育率现代社会的适应能力。 - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) 唯有消除极端贫困、提高儿童生存率并普及避孕手段，世界人口才会被稳定控制在约100亿人。 - [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) 全球人口不可避免地将再增加20亿至30亿，人类未来的能源、资源与基础设施规划必须基于100亿人口做好准备。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=0s) 宗教、性与“世界人口危机”之谜汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）在开场时半开玩笑地声明，宗教是一个极其庞大且敏感的课题，因此他必须给自己设定严格的限制，只谈论“宗教与性之间的联系”，引来全场哄堂大笑。但他随即严肃地指出，这是一场十分认真的演讲。他回忆起人生中最美好的时刻之一，正是年轻夫妻轻声细语地说：“今晚我们要制造一个宝宝。”而本次演讲的核心议题，就是探讨各宗教究竟对“每名妇女生育子女数（总和生育率）”产生了多大的实际影响。人们普遍意识到地球承载人类的数量存在极限，许多人看到人口从 1960 年的 30 亿激增到近年（2011 年）的 70 亿，便武断地归咎于宗教阻碍了妇女节育，并预测这种增长趋势将无止境延续。罗斯林抛出了一个历史对照与现场测验：在他出生时，全球儿童总数不足 10 亿；到了 2000 年，这一数字已经接近 20 亿。那么在本世纪，全球儿童数量会发生什么变化？究竟是缩减回 10 亿、保持在 20 亿，还是随着人口增速飙升至 40 亿？ - 1960 年全球总人口：约 30 亿 - 2011 年全球总人口：突破 70 亿 - 罗斯林出生时全球儿童数：不足 10 亿 - 2000 年全球儿童数：接近 20 亿 --- ### [02:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=125s) Gapminder 的宗教分类地图与 1960 年的世界图景要分析宗教对生育的影响，首先需要对全球宗教进行分类。维基百科上的地图要么过于粗略（仅将世界分为亚伯拉罕诸教与东方宗教），要么过于细碎（将基督教、伊斯兰教和佛教拆分为无数支派）。于是，Gapminder 团队制作了自己的分类气泡图：气泡大小代表该国人口规模（如庞大的中国和印度），颜色则代表占该国人口 50% 以上的“多数宗教”。其中，印度、中国及周边邻国归入东方宗教；伊斯兰教从大西洋沿岸、中东、南欧、中亚一直延伸到印度尼西亚；基督教（蓝色）则涵盖美洲和欧洲的大多数国家、非洲的许多国家以及少数亚洲国家；至于没有任何宗教超过 50% 或数据存疑的国家，则谨慎地标为白色。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: Gapminder宗教与人口分类逻辑 accDescr: 展示Gapminder如何根据国家多数宗教（占比超过50%）将全球主要人口进行归类。 subgraph ReligionCategories["按占人口50%以上的宗教划分"] direction TB ER["东方宗教 （中国、印度等周边邻国）"] IS["伊斯兰教多数 （大西洋沿岸至中东、印尼）"] CH["基督教多数 （美洲大部、欧洲大部、非洲多国）"] UN["未分类/白色 （无单一宗教超50%或数据存疑）"] end ER --> Map["Gapminder 交互图表系统"] IS --> Map CH --> Map UN --> Map ``` 随后，罗斯林调出 1960 年的数据，横轴为人均收入（可比美元），纵轴为每名妇女生育子女数。许多人常说“必须先富裕起来才能少生孩子”，而在 1960 年的格局中，这种观念似乎得到了印证。当时全球范围内，唯有“富裕的基督教国家”实现了低生育率（每名妇女性生育 2 至 3 个孩子），唯一的例外是日本。当时处于中低收入的拉丁美洲与非洲基督教国家，妇女平均仍生育 6 至 7 个孩子；与此同时，绝大多数伊斯兰国家以及除日本外的东方宗教国家，无论收入高低，妇女生育率普遍都在 6 到 7 之间。 > “And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.” > ——汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） --- ### [04:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=284s) 席卷全球的生育率雪崩：富裕不再是少生的前提随着动态图表从 1960 年一路播放至 21 世纪，惊人的历史转变发生了。中国率先以极快的速度下降，伊斯兰国家与中等收入的基督教国家也跨越收入阶梯同步下坠。进入 21 世纪后，半数以上的人类已经进入低生育率区间；到 2010 年，全球已有 80% 的人口生活在每名妇女仅生育约 2 个孩子的国家。全场对此报以热烈掌声。罗斯林一口气列举了一长串跨越各种收入门槛与宗教传统的国家：从人均收入高达 40,000 美元的美国，到法国、俄罗斯、伊朗、墨西哥、土耳其、阿尔及利亚、印度尼西亚、印度，再到收入不足美国 5% 的孟加拉国和越南——它们的妇女平均生育率竟已降至近乎相同的水准。罗斯林强调，全球各国的生育率数据主要基于人口普查，统计质量异常扎实，不容置疑。这雄辩地证明，低生育率绝非富裕国家的专利，宗教更不是生育率居高不下的决定性枷锁。 - 2010 年全球现状：80% 人口所处国家的每名妇女生育数在 2 人左右 - 东方宗教国家：无一国家生育率超过 3 - 孟加拉国与越南：人均收入不到美国的 5%，却有着与美国相当的低生育率 - 全球平均生育水平：已降至类似哥伦比亚的 2.4 > “So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children.” > ——汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） > “There's no major difference between these religions.” > ——汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） --- ### [06:30](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=390s) 为什么动荡高死亡率国家人口暴涨？促成少生的四大支柱与宗教无关，生育率的分化主要取决于收入与生存环境。依然保持每名妇女平均生育 6 个孩子的国家主要集中在撒哈拉以南非洲，以及危地马拉、巴布亚新几内亚、也门和阿富汗。针对大众普遍认为饱受战乱之苦的阿富汗与刚果（金）人口不会快速增长的偏见，罗斯林指出事实恰恰相反：在当今世界，儿童死亡率最高的国家，往往人口增长最快，因为家庭必须通过多生孩子来补偿夭折的孩子（每名妇女痛失 1 至 2 名子女）。按此趋势，未来 30 年内阿富汗人口将从 3,000 万翻倍到 6,000 万，刚果（金）则将从 6,000 万跃升至 1.2 亿。即便如此，这些国家绝非止步不前。对比自 1960 年代初独立以来的穆斯林主导国塞内加尔和基督教主导国加纳，两国的生育率都从当时的 7 个孩子降到了 4 至 5 个。为了解析生育率下降的核心机制，罗斯林对比了同样在 1971-1972 年独立的卡塔尔与孟加拉国——虽然人均财富天差地别，但两者生育率下降的曲线几乎一模一样。罗斯林援引卡塔尔统计局官方报告《卡塔尔社会趋势》指出，官方专家列出的三大关键是：妇女初婚年龄推迟、女性受教育水平提升，以及女性更多参与劳动力市场。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 促进生育率下降的四大发展支柱 accDescr: 展现降低妇女生育率的四个决定性因素：儿童存活、摆脱极度贫困、女性权益与避孕服务。 P1["儿童高存活率 （无需补偿死亡）"] --> Goal["生育率自然下降 （迈向每名妇女约2人）"] P2["摆脱极度贫困 （孩子不再作为家庭劳动力）"] --> Goal P3["女性权益发展 （推迟初婚/提高教育/进入职场）"] --> Goal P4["普及家庭计划 （获取有效避孕工具）"] --> Goal ``` 科学与发展经验公认的生育率下降四大支柱包括： 1. **儿童必须能够存活**：消除夭折恐惧； 2. **摆脱深度贫困**：不再需要依赖儿童充当家庭劳动力； 3. **女性全面赋权**：接受教育并融入劳动力市场，提高初婚年龄； 4. **获取家庭计划手段**：避孕措施真正普及（罗斯林在此极力推荐了梅琳达·盖茨关于避孕的 TED 演讲）。 > “Increased age at first marriage, increased educational level of Qatari woman and more women integrated in the labor force.” > ——卡塔尔政府统计局报告（引述） --- ### [10:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=614s) 儿童峰值（Peak Child）与纸箱揭示的人口“填满阶段” 回到开头的竞猜，罗斯林给出了权威答案：本世纪全球儿童总数将保持在 20 亿。世界已经迎来了“儿童峰值”（Peak Child），全球儿童总数不再继续增长。虽然舆论界仍在争论“石油峰值（Peak Oil）”，但儿童总数的见顶已成定局。联合国人口司预测，全球总人口最终将在 100 亿左右停止增长。那么，既然儿童数量不再增加，为什么未来人口还会从 70 亿增加到 100 亿？罗斯林拿出现场发放笔记本所用的纸箱进行现场演示。他把一个纸箱代表 10 亿人，自底向上搭建当前的人口年龄金字塔： - **0–15 岁（儿童）**：2 个纸箱（20 亿人） - **15–30 岁（青年）**：2 个纸箱（20 亿人） - **30–45 岁**：1 个纸箱（10 亿人） - **45–60 岁**：近 1 个纸箱（约 10 亿人） - **60 岁以上（罗斯林自嘲所处的顶层群体）**：1 个纸箱（10 亿人）在金字塔中上方，清晰地“缺失”了 3 个箱子（30 亿人）。这 30 亿人并不是死了，而是因为在 1980 年以前全球每年的新生儿数量本就远少于近 30 年，他们压根就从未出生过。未来的增长并非由于婴儿暴增，而是所谓的“大填补（the big fill-up）”：老年人按自然规律离世，下层的年轻群体年龄递增向上填补，同时新的育龄人口每代只稳定带来 20 亿新生儿。这种自然的年龄迭代演进，最终会平稳地填满那缺失的 30 亿空间。 > “We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child.” > ——汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） ### [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) 人口补齐阶段、宗教与走向百亿人口的全球未来在观众的热烈掌声之后，汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）指出了正在全球上演的宏观人口动态——即所谓的“大填补”（the great fill-up）。他坚定地表示：“This is the great fill-up.” 这种增长是不可避免的自然进程。罗斯林引导台下观众观察这一阶段的本质：世界人口总量的增加，并不是因为人类寿命突然延长，也不是因为妇女又生了更多的孩子，而是以往出生的大量儿童正在逐渐成长为成年人，填补了金字塔各年龄段的人口结构。罗斯林借此总结了关涉全球生育率的核心洞见：宗教与每名妇女生育孩子的数量其实几乎没有关联。他强调：“Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman.” 世界上所有的宗教都完全有能力在坚守自身精神价值观的同时，顺应并融入这个生育率全面下降的新世界。正如他所断言：“All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.” 谈及未来的全球人口走向，罗斯林给出了明确的发展前提与预测。他指出，唯有当最底层的人群彻底摆脱赤贫、他们的孩子能够健康存活、且他们能够获得计划生育服务时，世界人口才会被稳定控制在100亿左右。他提醒道：“And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning.” 无论如何，未来全球再增加20亿至30亿人已是不可避免的事实。最后，罗斯林向所有规划者发出警示：当大家讨论并规划这个星球上未来所需的资源与能源时，必须明确做好迎接100亿人口的准备。正如他的总结陈词：“So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion.” 演讲随后在全场热烈的掌声中落下帷幕。 - **大填补现象（The Great Fill-up）**：全球人口总量的阶段性上升并不依赖于寿命增长或生育率攀升，而是既有出生人口步入成年阶段的必然结果。 - **宗教与生育率脱钩**：无论何种宗教信仰，都能在保持其传统价值的同时适应低生育率的现代社会。 - **稳定在100亿人口的三大要素**： 1. 让极端贫困人群摆脱贫困（get out of poverty）。 2. 提高儿童生存率（children survive）。 3. 普及计划生育与避孕途径（access to family planning）。 - **资源规划底线**：未来全球人口增加20亿至30亿是板上钉钉的趋势，未来一切能源、资源与基础设施规划都必须以100亿人为基准进行统筹。 ## Notable quotes > [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. — 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） > [10:14](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=614s) We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. — 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） > [04:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=284s) So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. — 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） > [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. — 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） > [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. — 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） > [12:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=721s) All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. — 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） > [02:05](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78&t=125s) And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. — 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling） ## Mentioned 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）, 梅琳达·盖茨（Melinda Gates）, Gapminder, TED, 联合国人口司, 卡塔尔统计局, 《卡塔尔社会趋势》 ## Video description http://www.ted.com Hans Rosling had a question: Do some religions have a higher birth rate than others -- and how does this affect global population growth? Speaking at the TEDxSummit in Doha, Qatar, he graphs data over time and across religions. With his trademark humor and sharp insight, Hans reaches a surprising conclusion on world fertility rates. TEDTalks is a daily video podcast of the best talks and performances from the TED Conference, where the world's leading thinkers and doers give the talk of their lives in 18 minutes. Featured speakers have included Al Gore on climate change, Philippe Starck on design, Jill Bolte Taylor on observing her own stroke, Nicholas Negroponte on One Laptop per Child, Jane Goodall on chimpanzees, Bill Gates on malaria and mosquitoes, Pattie Maes on the "Sixth Sense" wearable tech, and "Lost" producer JJ Abrams on the allure of mystery. TED stands for Technology, Entertainment, Design, and TEDTalks cover these topics as well as science, business, development and the arts. Closed captions and translated subtitles in a variety of languages are now available on TED.com, at http://www.ted.com/translate If you have questions or comments about this or other TED videos, please go to http://support.ted.com [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezVk1ahRF78)

Source quotes

[12:01] 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）: Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. [10:14] 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）: We are still debating peak oil, but we have definitely reached peak child. [4:44] 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）: So what we can conclude is you don't have to get rich to have few children. [12:01] 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）: And we will be just 10 billion in this world, if the poorest people get out of poverty, their children survive, they get access to family planning. [12:01] 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）: So when you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. [12:01] 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）: All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. [2:05] 汉斯·罗斯林（Hans Rosling）: And indeed in 1960, you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies.

Source quotes

[12:01] Hans Rosling: When you discuss and when you plan for the resources and the energy needed for the future, for human beings on this planet, you have to plan for 10 billion. [12:01] Hans Rosling: All the religions in the world are fully capable to maintain their values and adapt to this new world.

Original transcript

[0:00] Translator: Timothy Covell Reviewer: Morton Bast [0:15] I'm going to talk about religion. [0:19] But it's a broad and very delicate subject, [0:24] so I have to limit myself. [0:26] And therefore I will limit myself [0:28] to only talk about the links between religion and sexuality. [0:33] (Laughter) [0:34] This is a very serious talk. [0:37] So I will talk of what I remember as the most wonderful. [0:41] It's when the young couple whisper, [0:43] "Tonight we are going to make a baby." [0:47] My talk will be about the impact of religions [0:52] on the number of babies per woman. [0:56] This is indeed important, [0:58] because everyone understands [0:59] that there is some sort of limit [1:02] on how many people we can be on this planet. [1:05] And there are some people [1:07] who say that the world population is growing like this -- [1:10] three billion in 1960, [1:12] seven billion just last year -- [1:15] and it will continue to grow [1:16] because there are religions that stop women from having few babies, [1:20] and it may continue like this. [1:22] To what extent are these people right? [1:26] When I was born there was less than one billion children in the world, [1:31] and today, 2000, there's almost two billion. [1:35] What has happened since, [1:37] and what do the experts predict will happen [1:40] with the number of children during this century? [1:42] This is a quiz. What do you think? [1:45] Do you think it will decrease to one billion? [1:49] Will it remain the same and be two billion by the end of the century? [1:52] Will the number of children increase each year up to 15 years, [1:56] or will it continue in the same fast rate [1:59] and be four billion children up there? [2:01] I will tell you by the end of my speech. [2:05] But now, what does religion have to do with it? [2:10] When you want to classify religion, [2:12] it's more difficult than you think. [2:13] You go to Wikipedia and the first map you find is this. [2:17] It divides the world into Abrahamic religions and Eastern religion, [2:22] but that's not detailed enough. [2:24] So we went on and we looked in Wikipedia, we found this map. [2:28] But that subdivides Christianity, Islam and Buddhism [2:32] into many subgroups, [2:34] which was too detailed. [2:36] Therefore at Gapminder we made our own map, [2:39] and it looks like this. [2:41] Each country's a bubble. [2:45] The size is the population -- big China, big India here. [2:48] And the color now is the majority religion. [2:52] It's the religion where more than 50 percent of the people [2:56] say that they belong. [2:57] It's Eastern religion in India and China and neighboring Asian countries. [3:02] Islam is the majority religion [3:03] all the way from the Atlantic Ocean across the Middle East, [3:07] Southern Europe and through Asia [3:10] all the way to Indonesia. [3:12] That's where we find Islamic majority. [3:15] And Christian majority religions, we see in these countries. They are blue. [3:19] And that is most countries in America and Europe, [3:24] many countries in Africa and a few in Asia. [3:27] The white here are countries which cannot be classified, [3:30] because one religion does not reach 50 percent [3:32] or there is doubt about the data or there's some other reason. [3:36] So we were careful with that. [3:38] So bear with our simplicity now when I take you over to this shot. [3:41] This is in 1960. [3:43] And now I show the number of babies per woman here: [3:47] two, four or six -- [3:50] many babies, few babies. [3:52] And here the income per person in comparable dollars. [3:55] The reason for that is that many people say you have to get rich first [3:59] before you get few babies. [4:01] So low income here, high income there. [4:04] And indeed in 1960, [4:06] you had to be a rich Christian to have few babies. [4:09] The exception was Japan. [4:11] Japan here was regarded as an exception. [4:14] Otherwise it was only Christian countries. [4:16] But there was also many Christian countries [4:18] that had six to seven babies per woman. [4:21] But they were in Latin America or they were in Africa. [4:27] And countries with Islam as the majority religion, [4:31] all of them almost had six to seven children per woman, [4:35] irregardless of the income level. [4:38] And all the Eastern religions except Japan had the same level. [4:42] Now let's see what has happened in the world. [4:44] I start the world, and here we go. [4:46] Now 1962 -- can you see they're getting a little richer, [4:49] but the number of babies per woman is falling? [4:52] Look at China. They're falling fairly fast. [4:54] And all of the Muslim majority countries across the income are coming down, [4:59] as do the Christian majority countries in the middle income range. [5:04] And when we enter into this century, [5:06] you'll find more than half of mankind down here. [5:10] And by 2010, we are actually 80 percent of humans [5:14] who live in countries with about two children per woman. [5:19] (Applause) [5:22] It's a quite amazing development which has happened. [5:26] (Applause) [5:28] And these are countries from United States here, [5:31] with $40,000 per capita, [5:33] France, Russia, Iran, [5:36] Mexico, Turkey, Algeria, [5:40] Indonesia, India [5:42] and all the way to Bangladesh and Vietnam, [5:45] which has less than five percent of the income per person of the United States [5:49] and the same amount of babies per woman. [5:52] I can tell you that the data on the number of children per woman [5:55] is surprisingly good in all countries. [5:57] We get that from the census data. [5:59] It's not one of these statistics which is very doubtful. [6:02] So what we can conclude [6:04] is you don't have to get rich to have few children. [6:07] It has happened across the world. [6:09] And then when we look at religions, [6:11] we can see that the Eastern religions, [6:14] indeed there's not one single country with a majority of that religion [6:17] that has more than three children. [6:19] Whereas with Islam as a majority religion and Christianity, [6:23] you see countries all the way. [6:25] But there's no major difference. [6:27] There's no major difference between these religions. [6:30] There is a difference with income. [6:32] The countries which have many babies per woman here, [6:36] they have quite low income. [6:38] Most of them are in sub-Saharan Africa. [6:42] But there are also countries here [6:44] like Guatemala, like Papua New Guinea, [6:49] like Yemen and Afghanistan. [6:51] Many think that Afghanistan here and Congo, [6:55] which have suffered severe conflicts, [6:59] that they don't have fast population growth. [7:01] It's the other way around. [7:03] In the world today, it's the countries that have the highest mortality rates [7:07] that have the fastest population growth. [7:09] Because the death of a child is compensated by one more child. [7:13] These countries have six children per woman. [7:16] They have a sad death rate of one to two children per woman. [7:20] But 30 years from now, Afghanistan will go from 30 million to 60 million. [7:24] Congo will go from 60 to 120. [7:28] That's where we have the fast population growth. [7:30] And many think that these countries are stagnant, but they are not. [7:35] Let me compare Senegal, a Muslim dominated country, [7:38] with a Christian dominated country, Ghana. [7:41] I take them backwards here to their independence, [7:44] when they were up here in the beginning of the 1960s. [7:48] Just look what they have done. [7:50] It's an amazing improvement, [7:52] from seven children per woman, [7:54] they've gone all the way down to between four and five. [7:57] It's a tremendous improvement. [7:59] So what does it take? [8:00] Well we know quite well what is needed in these countries. [8:04] You need to have children to survive. [8:06] You need to get out of the deepest poverty [8:09] so children are not of importance for work in the family. [8:12] You need to have access to some family planning. [8:15] And you need the fourth factor, which perhaps is the most important factor. [8:19] But let me illustrate that fourth factor [8:22] by looking at Qatar. [8:24] Here we have Qatar today, and there we have Bangladesh today. [8:28] If I take these countries back to the years of their independence, [8:32] which is almost the same year -- '71, '72 -- [8:35] it's a quite amazing development which had happened. [8:39] Look at Bangladesh and Qatar. [8:41] With so different incomes, it's almost the same drop [8:44] in number of babies per woman. [8:46] And what is the reason in Qatar? [8:48] Well I do as I always do. [8:50] I went to the statistical authority of Qatar, to their webpage -- [8:53] It's a very good webpage. I recommend it -- [8:56] and I looked up -- oh yeah, you can have lots of fun here -- [9:02] and provided free of charge, I found Qatar's social trends. [9:06] Very interesting. Lots to read. [9:09] I found fertility at birth, and I looked at total fertility rate per woman. [9:13] These are the scholars and experts in the government agency in Qatar, [9:17] and they say the most important factors are: [9:19] "Increased age at first marriage, [9:21] increased educational level of Qatari woman [9:24] and more women integrated in the labor force." [9:28] I couldn't agree more. Science couldn't agree more. [9:31] This is a country that indeed has gone through [9:34] a very, very interesting modernization. [9:37] So what it is, is these four: [9:40] Children should survive, children shouldn't be needed for work, [9:43] women should get education and join the labor force [9:46] and family planning should be accessible. [9:48] Now look again at this. [9:52] The average number of children in the world [9:54] is like in Colombia -- it's 2.4 today. [9:57] There are countries up here which are very poor. [10:00] And that's where family planning, better child survival is needed. [10:04] I strongly recommend Melinda Gates' last TEDTalk. [10:08] And here, down, there are many countries which are less than two children per woman. [10:14] So when I go back now to give you the answer of the quiz, [10:17] it's two. [10:19] We have reached peak child. [10:21] The number of children is not growing any longer in the world. [10:24] We are still debating peak oil, [10:26] but we have definitely reached peak child. [10:29] And the world population will stop growing. [10:32] The United Nations Population Division has said [10:34] it will stop growing at 10 billion. [10:36] But why do they grow if the number of children doesn't grow? [10:40] Well I will show you here. [10:43] I will use these card boxes in which your notebooks came. [10:47] They are quite useful for educational purposes. [10:50] Each card box is one billion people. [10:53] And there are two billion children in the world. [10:56] There are two billion young people between 15 and 30. [11:03] These are rounded numbers. [11:04] Then there is one billion between 30 and 45, [11:09] almost one between 45 and 60. [11:13] And then it's my box. [11:15] This is me: 60-plus. [11:17] We are here on top. [11:19] So what will happen now is what we call "the big fill-up." [11:24] You can see that it's like three billion missing here. [11:27] They are not missing because they've died; they were never born. [11:32] Because before 1980, there were much fewer people born [11:36] than there were during the last 30 years. [11:38] So what will happen now is quite straightforward. [11:42] The old, sadly, we will die. [11:44] The rest of you, you will grow older and you will get two billion children. [11:49] Then the old will die. [11:52] The rest will grow older and get two billion children. [11:56] And then again the old will die and you will get two billion children. [12:01] (Applause) [12:04] This is the great fill-up. [12:07] It's inevitable. [12:10] And can you see that this increase took place [12:13] without life getting longer and without adding children? [12:18] Religion has very little to do with the number of babies per woman. [12:22] All the religions in the world are fully capable [12:26] to maintain their values and adapt to this new world. [12:31] And we will be just 10 billion in this world, [12:36] if the poorest people get out of poverty, [12:40] their children survive, they get access to family planning. [12:43] That is needed. [12:45] But it's inevitable that we will be two to three billion more. [12:51] So when you discuss and when you plan [12:54] for the resources and the energy needed for the future, [12:57] for human beings on this planet, [12:59] you have to plan for 10 billion. [13:02] Thank you very much. [13:04] (Applause)