"Energy Revolution? More like a Crawl" - Dr. Vaclav Smil

瓦茨拉夫·斯米尔博士：“能源革命？不如说是缓慢爬行” 瓦茨拉夫·斯米尔博士对全球能源系统进行了严谨的实证和量化评估，指出当代文明在本质上仍由化石燃料驱动，无法实现快速、无阻碍的转型。他阐明，由于基础设施规模庞大、可再生能源功率密度偏低、间歇性难题，以及制造钢铁、混凝土和塑料等基础材料需要耗费巨大的物化化石能源，能源转型往往需要耗费数十年。通过聚焦高炉炼铁和哈伯-博施法合成氨等基础行业，斯米尔解释了为什么这些文明支柱产业无法简单通过电气化来替代。他坚称，与其寄希望于万能技术或碳捕集，唯一务实的解决方案在于理性利用能源，并大幅减少西方生活方式中根深蒂固的巨大浪费空间。 全球能源转型依然迟缓：1990年至2015年间，化石燃料在全球一次能源中的占比仅下降了3%（从大约90%降至87%），而新型可再生能源在2015年仅占2.5%。 (8:34) 从历史上看，结构性能源转变需要数十年时间；在全球市场份额从5%上升到25%，煤炭用了35年，石油用了40年，天然气则用了55年。 (12:55) 西方国家浪费了大约40%的食物供应，并驾驶超重的数吨级车辆，形成了巨大的浪费缓冲带；这使得像加拿大这样的国家在不牺牲生活水平的情况下，仅用当前三分之一的能源就能维持运转。 (65:19) 碳捕集与封存面临着严重的物理规模限制：即使仅将全球每年CO2排放量的13%至15%封存在地下，也需要建立一个规模堪比整个全球石油工业的工业基础设施。 (75:55)

[6:38] Dr. Vaclav Smil: We are a fossil fueled civilization. [73:02] Dr. Vaclav Smil: People have to realize that talking about CO2, you shouldn't talk about nations; you have to talk globally. [75:55] Dr. Vaclav Smil: There is no simple engineering solution because of the scale, so forget about the capture from the air, forget about the storage underground—that cannot work really. [65:19] Dr. Vaclav Smil: If I ran the things, I could design a system then you could run Canada on one-third of the energy which you are using, and our standard of living would be pretty much the same.

[0:09] boswa good [0:11] evening welcome everyone to this uh [0:13] special seminar event uh energy [0:17] Revolution uh more like a [0:19] crawl uh by distinguished speaker vaslav [0:23] smill it's wonderful to see such a nice [0:27] turnout uh I know we have here in the [0:30] audience uh representatives from just [0:33] about every University campus uh in [0:36] Montreal so from concard University the [0:39] HC poly technique um university moral [0:43] and ukam so thank you all for showing [0:47] up so um I'm subasish kosal I'm a [0:51] professor in Mel's faculty of [0:52] engineering and director of the Trot [0:55] Institute for sustainability and [0:56] engineering and design which we call [0:59] tiet [1:00] short and tonight's event is part of the [1:04] fasio 3E speaker program and is [1:07] co-hosted with tyed so a bit of [1:11] background here on fasia 3E and the [1:14] collaboration with [1:15] tyed Miguel's partnership with fontasia [1:18] 3E began about 5 years ago looking back [1:21] I'm very pleased to say that this [1:23] relationship has grown over the years [1:26] and has directly supported Ted's own [1:28] mission we at taed share fasio 3's core [1:32] beliefs that energy literacy is a pillar [1:35] of sustainable [1:37] engineering that integrative and [1:39] collaborative design work of uh [1:41] Engineers Architects and urban planners [1:44] is required to reduce energy consumption [1:47] in the urban [1:49] envelope and the transition to [1:52] non-emitting energy sources is an very [1:55] important task at [1:57] hand members of the board of n 3 are [2:01] here with us today and I extend them a [2:04] warm welcome on behalf of [2:06] taied and I would now like to introduce [2:10] Mr Michelle jalina the president of [2:12] fasia 3E Mr jalina obtained a masters [2:16] from HC Montreal his passion for energy [2:20] issues traces back to a 1980s diplomatic [2:24] assignment in Trin in Trinidad and [2:26] Tobago who's obviously oil and gas [2:29] producer and [2:30] supporter and since 2004 Michelle has [2:33] been an analyst and adviser on energy [2:35] issues Michelle has worked for foreign [2:38] affairs and very other various other [2:40] government departments with a particular [2:42] focus on energy infrastructure and [2:44] Technology issues I'd like now to invite [2:48] Michelle to the stage to say a few words [2:58] please thank you very much [3:01] Tois well on behalf of the board of [3:04] directors of for I would like to extend [3:07] our special thanks to all students that [3:10] are with us tonight in particular those [3:12] of C [3:13] 546 uh so we place much hope on your [3:16] shoulders M [3:17] say like I said we believe that [3:21] sustainability must be [3:23] engineer and uh and that it applies to [3:27] both the demand and the supply side of [3:29] energy and material consumption we're [3:31] more focused on the demand [3:33] side uh the question is could we reduce [3:37] our absolute energy consumption we [3:39] believe that it can be done and our [3:41] beliefs are basically of three I mean [3:43] they're anchored on three sub beliefs if [3:46] I may say so one we cannot manage what [3:49] we cannot frame and understand ends are [3:53] singular focus on energy literacy and [3:55] energy numeracy two working as a team [4:00] energy literate Engineers urban planners [4:04] and architect can design and erect [4:06] environments that will dramatically [4:08] reduce the Absolute Energy footprint of [4:12] the inhabitants and three the transition [4:16] to nonemitting energy sources is [4:17] desirable and the contribution of [4:19] passive as well as opportun sorry [4:22] opportunistic energy sources should be [4:25] Earnest our guest speaker here tonight [4:28] whom I had the privilege of meeting [4:29] meeting nearly 10 years ago greatly [4:31] influenced our thinking at foundational [4:34] 3E uh his book energy at a crossroad in [4:38] particular I recall at the time uh being [4:41] half an economist uh I reviewed I had a [4:45] chance to review a criticism or review [4:47] of that book by Mr Gordon in energy in [4:50] the energy Journal [4:53] Gordon give a very favorable review of [4:55] your book vaslav and uh and at the end [4:59] he noted he had he had this view that [5:02] well however Mr smill is a bit of his [5:05] views of energy future and the future of [5:07] energy is a bit indos syncratic because [5:10] it is based on this assumption that we [5:12] should be using less energy well let [5:14] Meen to say that we disagree with Gordon [5:17] and we agreed with vaslav sois I would [5:20] like to ask you to introduce vaslav more [5:22] formally thank [5:28] you [5:33] so it is indeed my privilege to [5:36] introduce vasl smill a distinguished [5:39] professor emiritus at the University of [5:42] Manitoba a fellow of the Royal Society [5:45] of Canada vast lives smill is a [5:47] distinguished interdisciplinary [5:49] researcher and author in areas panning [5:52] energy environment population Dynamics [5:54] uh technical Innovation risk assessment [5:57] policy and probably more [6:00] Professor smill has been listed by the [6:02] foreign policy magazine as among the top [6:05] 100 Global thinkers Professor smill was [6:09] made a member of the Order of Canada for [6:11] contributions to understanding the [6:13] impact of energy use on our biosphere [6:16] and this year he received the OPC [6:18] research award for outstanding work in [6:20] oil and Energy [6:22] Research it's wonderful to U have you [6:25] finally in montal vaslav um and we are [6:28] honored to have you here with us today [6:31] so um I invite you to come to the podium [6:34] for your [6:38] talk thank you thank [6:42] you I'm glad to be here I'm humbled by [6:44] so many people willink to spend uh late [6:47] Tuesday afternoon early evening uh by [6:49] listening to an Old-Fashioned Professor [6:52] uh without PowerPoint I don't even have [6:54] a cell phone [6:57] um we can do it in many ways [7:00] I myself usually don't know what I will [7:01] say in next five or 10 minutes I like [7:04] you know to do it like that we can make [7:06] it very structured but we'll see how it [7:08] will go I'll see how it will react and [7:11] but anyway I want to leave you with at [7:12] least sort of five pedagogical dactic [7:15] messages to take away number one we are [7:19] a fossil fueled civilization right one [7:22] more we are a fossil fuel civilization [7:25] number two we shall remain so for a long [7:28] time to come [7:30] because number three energy transitions [7:32] take a great deal of time right because [7:35] number four scale matters number five [7:39] soda's power density number six can go [7:43] on but at least couple more number six [7:45] uh it's always better to use energy [7:48] rationally than to come up with new ways [7:50] how to use it we are doing exactly the [7:53] opposite right um number [7:57] seven Innovation is an overvalued [8:01] exaggerated item uh because when you [8:03] actually think of it we are still living [8:06] in the world of [8:08] 1880s you think I'm crazy but I will [8:10] show you in a while that it is so okay [8:12] let's take them one by one and let's [8:14] look some numbers in numbers are [8:15] absolutely essential so I will just [8:17] throw you know great many numbers if I [8:20] get one wrong just correct me I'm told [8:22] this is an extraordinary numerate [8:24] scientifically literate energy advanced [8:26] class so uh uh I will I'm ready to stand [8:30] corrected [8:32] um [8:34] okay quarter century is enough time 20 [8:37] five years you know one generation to [8:39] get things moving right things usually [8:41] should change substantially 5 years not [8:44] enough 10 years but 25 years so 25 years [8:47] ago [8:48] 1990 does somebody have an idea what [8:51] percentage of global primary energy [8:54] Supply in 1990 came from fossil [8:57] fuels to the nearest [9:00] % 90 okay in 1990 90% of the planet's [9:05] primary energy all fuels and primary [9:09] electricity Hydro nuclear wind solar [9:12] whatever 90% what [9:16] percentage of global energy Supply will [9:19] come from fossil fuels this [9:23] year [9:25] 87 okay so in 25 years we traveled [9:29] 3% this renewable route so you look at [9:34] the 133% what is that 133% composed of [9:39] what is the single largest chunk of the [9:41] nonfossil [9:44] fuels [9:46] clear close to 7% see they switch it off [9:49] so close to 7% is nuclear is here right [9:52] or is the second largest chunk of non [9:54] fossil thing is hydro right what is what [9:58] I call the new Renewables right because [10:01] hydro and wood and straw still B lots of [10:05] it in China in Ethiopia that's old [10:08] Renewables right biomass or phytomass [10:10] fuels and hydro but when I call the new [10:13] Renewables that is basically two big [10:15] items only right that's wind and solar [10:18] and in terms of fuels is the mar [10:19] biofuels ethanol biodiesel all of these [10:22] new Renewables are this year about 2 and [10:25] a half% of global primary energy Supply [10:28] 2 and a half% [10:30] right of which big chunk is biofuels [10:34] which as you know a totally artificial [10:36] Creation in United States created by the [10:38] mandates of US Congress one3 of us core [10:42] now goes into making ethanol one3 of us [10:45] Farmland devoted to Corn is eroding and [10:48] putting all that nitrate into the Gulf [10:50] of Mexico so we could put few per into [10:53] gasoline cars I'll get into cars later [10:56] but you know it's just it's all insane [10:58] actually um [10:59] so suppose you know in next 25 years we [11:02] we'll double it right we'll increase the [11:05] new Renewables from what they are now 2 [11:07] and a half% so in next 25 years they'll [11:11] become 5% suppose we'll just massively [11:14] up everything right subsidize like crazy [11:16] force people to do it we would triple [11:18] the rate of introduction of new [11:19] Renewables we will be at 7 and a half% [11:22] or 8% really right so you see the point [11:25] right um I decided to look into it in [11:28] some detail because history is always [11:30] the best guide and um few years ago I [11:32] wrote this book about energy transitions [11:34] nothing else but quantitative detail [11:36] look at energy transitions globally and [11:38] in all major countries us USSR Russia [11:42] China uh France UK Japan okay and the [11:47] globally see individually you can do in [11:49] small Nations you can move very rapidly [11:52] Dutch Dutch Golden Age 17th century [11:55] running on Pete then the Good Pete runs [11:57] out uh they start in importing Some Coal [12:00] you know they have still a little bit of [12:01] wind from [12:02] windmills and then they return to the [12:05] cold Li so they've been a major coal [12:07] miners coal producers but then they [12:09] discover horing field and basically they [12:11] shut down their coal in a decade right [12:13] so in one nation you can do a rapid [12:16] energy transition in small nation in a [12:18] big nation you cannot do it in China [12:21] basically is a cal country always has [12:23] been always will be I mean always for [12:25] long foreseeable future so China cannot [12:28] do what ddg did in 1960s right us cannot [12:31] do what uh what French did uh with [12:36] nuclear power plants in 1970s and 1980s [12:40] but you look at it globally and actually [12:42] the transitions are getting more [12:44] difficult when we move from wood which [12:46] was the number one Energizer of [12:48] everything see people have this idea [12:50] right that uh 18th century this is this [12:53] kind of you know the half learn history [12:55] 18th century was a century of wood and [12:57] 19th century was the century of coal all [12:59] these steam engines so-called Industrial [13:01] Revolution which really never happened [13:03] but that's another story and 20th [13:04] century was the century of oil all wrong [13:07] except for the first one right 18th [13:09] century was the century of wood but so [13:11] was the 19th century 19th century most [13:14] of the stuff for most of the countries [13:16] in the was wood wood wood if you look at [13:18] the Tipping points we have many good [13:19] historical statistic except for England [13:22] England tip from wood to Coal by about [13:24] 1640 right but when did France St 50% [13:27] coal 50% oil 50% wood about 1870 right [13:31] at the time of the great defeat France [13:33] became finally the wood the C country [13:35] 1870 when did the US flip sooner or [13:38] later or natur later because it is much [13:41] more wood to burn than France right but [13:42] 1884 up to 1884 most of the American [13:46] Energy Right was coming from wood only [13:49] from 1884 was cold right Japan flip [13:52] about 1901 and Russia flipped about 1925 [13:55] 1930 right and China flipped only about [13:57] 1965 19 7 right so you know until [14:01] recently we've been still at biomass [14:03] wood and straw fueled countries and [14:05] continents and civilization so anyway [14:07] going from globally going from wood to [14:09] Coal I and I started I had to choose [14:12] something I chose not arbitrarily but [14:14] you know 5% if you reach 5% of the [14:17] market you matter 1% of the market [14:19] nobody notice you but 5% one out of 20 [14:22] that's pretty good thing so I look you [14:23] reach 5% of the market right and by the [14:26] time you get to 25% you become a king of [14:28] the market right because there are very [14:29] few items which go like 90% right there [14:32] will never be a global market where one [14:34] source of energy will be 90% right so [14:36] going from 5% to 25% from biomass to [14:40] Coal it took us 35 years globally going [14:44] from 5% of oil to 25% of oil took us 40 [14:50] years going from 5% of natural gas to [14:53] 25% natural gas has taking us 55 years [14:56] right so it's Tak us longer and longer [14:58] but it's obvious why because the base is [15:00] getting larger right scale is increasing [15:02] really right so you know to shove it [15:03] extra 5% in 18 550 you know was 10 [15:06] million tons to sh extra 5% now is half [15:09] a billion tons right so scale is getting [15:12] larger so that's one simple physical [15:14] part of it but the techniques and the [15:16] fuels themselves are getting trickier [15:19] you get coal everything you do with wood [15:21] you could do with coal only better the [15:23] fuel has higher density right air dry [15:26] wood it's about 17 depends what kind of [15:28] wood it is 15 16 17 18 G per time right [15:32] very good coal and we start with some [15:34] very good coal in 19th century is 28 29 [15:37] 30 G so almost twice the energy density [15:40] right so when you when you use coal to [15:43] replace wood it's it's easy right it's [15:45] just it's perfect right you go into oil [15:48] and energy density is there right a ton [15:51] of oil is 42 G compared to ton of [15:54] average binus SC you burn in power plant [15:57] it's about 24 22 G so you get almost [15:59] twice as much energy density or twice as [16:02] much energy actually in uh in oil than [16:05] coal and on top of it of course is a [16:07] portable fuel so you can you know run [16:09] the planes and trains and cars with it [16:12] so it seems to be great however it's not [16:14] so great because the distribution is [16:16] tricky right you know there most [16:18] countries in the world don't have it [16:19] right uh we have about 200 countries in [16:22] the world today and of them 160 are [16:24] importers of it right so you have to [16:26] import it from somewhere so if you don't [16:28] have the foreing um exchange it's not so [16:31] easy to import it and it requires some [16:33] sophistication of use you could burn it [16:36] right like you burn coal in the open but [16:38] that's heck you know that's polluting so [16:41] you have to have sophisticated machine [16:44] for it internal combustion engine gas [16:46] turbine right and these things are [16:48] energy intensive knowledge intensive [16:50] take a while to produce them so by the [16:52] time you get to have a billion car well [16:54] you know you don't get a billion car [16:55] when you staish fort marle in October [16:58] 1908 it takes you about a century to get [17:00] your Billy and Cy right so to convert [17:02] that Easy Fuel so the scale is getting [17:05] larger and the the uh requirements [17:08] technical requirements are getting more [17:10] sophisticated one of the most [17:11] sophisticated machines in modern [17:13] civilization is the machine which flew [17:15] me here today right and that's a gas [17:18] turbine right uh for those of you who [17:21] don't know we can take exactly the gas [17:23] turbine which room me here and we can [17:24] put it on the ground right and just use [17:26] it to generate electricity not quite the [17:28] do a little bit modification right but [17:30] uh it's the same thing so gas turbine [17:32] stationary gas turbine flights that's a [17:34] very sophisticated machine extreme you [17:36] know extremely low fail rate [17:40] 0.01% but you know there are only [17:45] five companies in the world who can [17:47] really make it the big one right you [17:48] know it's only Rolls-Royce and G and CFM [17:51] and and Prat and Whitney there are not [17:54] many people can tell so you cannot [17:55] simply say I want to convert suppose [17:57] suppose I have infinite amount of [17:59] natural gas right now right but I have [18:01] to convert it using gas turbines right I [18:04] cannot say let's have 10 GW of gas turb [18:07] points per week I cannot that's only [18:08] five manufacturer to make it right you [18:10] know so it's very limited these things [18:12] so when you get into more sophisticated [18:14] conversions many limits get in and this [18:16] is why it takes longer probably natural [18:19] gas will not hit 33% despite of having [18:22] you know lots of it very cheap probably [18:24] will not hit 33% for another 10 15 years [18:27] right um so no matter what uh transition [18:32] you look at it's always decades decades [18:34] decades just to go from 5 to 25 oil [18:37] actually Co of course at one point was [18:39] like you [18:40] know very high like 80 90 in some [18:43] countries basically 100% this will never [18:45] be repeated oil went way above 40% but [18:49] then with the double increase of prices [18:51] by OPEC in 1970s all has started to [18:54] decline and right now it's about 33% and [18:57] we are globally we are not a very [18:59] strange position globally right now that [19:02] oil is 33% and falling although the low [19:05] prices now will probably bump it up a [19:06] little bit coal is at 30% and Rising Co [19:10] actually has been rising most the [19:11] fastest increase in past 20 years hasn't [19:13] been natural gas in terms of total [19:16] energy based but it's C because you know [19:18] 25 years ago Chinese are mining 1 [19:20] billion tons Now Chinese are mining [19:22] almost 4 billion tons no so this has [19:25] been the single largest increase in past [19:27] 30 years hasn't mean wind or solar or [19:29] nuclear it's been c c c right so still [19:32] this is very much a for China very much [19:34] a CO C fuel sine [19:38] so we have gas at 25 and Rising coal at [19:42] 30 and kind of you know Rising but [19:43] almost steady and and oil at 33 and [19:46] falling so for the first time in history [19:49] we have these three fossil fuels almost [19:51] at the same level about close to 30% [19:53] really right and what's interesting [19:55] because we invested so much into each of [19:58] them [19:59] that it's to a very large extent [20:01] embedded it's changing all the time but [20:04] very slowly so let's say right now in us [20:07] people say oh the US coire power plants [20:09] are going out it right because there is [20:11] cheap natural gas it's not so much [20:13] because of cheap natural gas it's simply [20:15] so much because of the age of these cire [20:17] power plants right American Quire power [20:19] plants simply exploded in 1950s because [20:21] electricity consumption was increasing [20:23] by 10% a year 7 8% a year so we built [20:26] electric this this giant you know 200 [20:28] 300 and 500 800 meab plants gab plants [20:32] everywhere in 50s and 60s well you add [20:34] it up 50s and 60s right now well they [20:36] are old right 40 50 55 years so they are [20:40] naturally closing down and when you [20:41] close it down you put a gas turbine or [20:43] combine cycle gas turbine or whatever [20:45] you have so it's a natural process but [20:48] look at China right then people talk [20:50] okay we can do this differently this [20:52] time you know we are so smart we are so [20:54] high tech by the by by the way this me [20:58] know and that we took a perfectly nice [21:01] word which should be actually it's [21:03] better in France in French you L [21:05] technique and we took the technique and [21:07] make a technology out of it which is [21:10] kind of a bird word because technology [21:11] is a science about technique really [21:13] right okay and we took the technology [21:16] and shrink it to stupid computers only [21:18] right like a gas turbine is not [21:20] technique right everything is technique [21:22] right you know will is a technique [21:24] really right you know so anyway people [21:26] say now it's different we have silicon [21:28] we are electronic we are sophisticated [21:30] artificial intelligence no boundary is [21:32] given we can Transit from this to that [21:34] in no time right the old truths don't [21:35] apply right absolute hogwash absolute [21:38] hogwash look at China okay um or look at [21:41] first these big Western countries like [21:43] France Germany UK each of these three [21:47] countries Germany is bigger right German [21:49] is 80 million people these other about [21:51] 60 plus so they have let's say on the [21:55] order of 60 gaw okay total install [21:58] capacity in these countries right took [21:59] them 100 years to get there right China [22:03] in 2005 2006 2007 you see the point [22:07] right every year was installing 60 gaw [22:10] every year per year and 80% of it call [22:13] 80% of it call right so imagine the [22:15] Chinese pumping it you know 40 G of [22:18] course one year 40 G next year 50 g next [22:20] year and that was done few years ago are [22:23] they going to walk away from this when a [22:26] single power plant is what does somebody [22:28] have an idea what a power plant of let's [22:30] say one and half gwatt is even in China [22:33] what about1 and half billion dollars [22:34] right okay so you don't walk away from [22:36] and half billion which you put in place [22:38] in 2008 just because somebody says World [22:41] should be green right and we should [22:42] transit to beautiful solar right so [22:46] China got itself into this embedded [22:48] situation where 80% close to 80% of [22:51] electricity is in coal and in brand new [22:53] Cal Fire power plants which have to be [22:55] amortized over next 35 40 years whatever [22:58] right [22:59] China is now easing out finally after [23:01] this rush you know this rapid growth [23:03] past 20 years China is everything is [23:05] easing out China economy growth [23:07] electricity consumption coal consumption [23:09] is finally coming down this year I mean [23:11] no not like that but a little bit but [23:13] who's coming to fill the Gap India India [23:16] is now doing exactly the same thing [23:18] which China was doing building massive [23:20] Cal Fire power plants right left and [23:22] Center as fast as they can why because [23:25] it's the only fuel which they [23:26] domestically have India is not sitting [23:28] on a bubble of natural gas India is not [23:30] bursting with crude oil right you know [23:32] so it's cheaper now they can import it [23:33] but still the best thing is what you [23:35] have except there is one big difference [23:37] between Indian coal and Chinese coal [23:39] Chinese Co whatever you say about it [23:41] it's a good good baminos [23:44] SK unlike German Co which is ly liite [23:47] right the brown call Chinese Co is a [23:49] good binus co what is the Indian coal [23:52] well you hesitate to call it coal about [23:55] 40% of his Ash right you know 30 35 40% [24:00] which means to generate one useful [24:02] kilowatt hour you got to burn so much [24:04] more of that junk really right and [24:05] you've got to catch so much more flyers [24:08] and fortunately Indian coal is not [24:10] terribly high in s otherwise you have to [24:12] desize and other whatever 100 million [24:14] dollar per plant or whatever like crazy [24:16] so these are the embedded things and [24:18] countries will do them because that's [24:20] the only thing they do really and [24:22] unfortunately these two big countries [24:24] where most of the global economic growth [24:26] has come from in China and will come [24:28] from India other the coal countries and [24:30] they have no other choice right so you [24:32] know to just project some graphs [24:34] whatever what will happen you know [24:35] that's nether here nor there reality is [24:38] is is what [24:39] matters um then you look closer at at [24:42] the scale of oil because oil of course [24:46] has given us something which we never [24:48] never ever had before and it's the [24:50] mobility it's a it's a it's a because [24:52] it's the densest of all normal fuels the [24:54] only denser fuel is what than than uh [24:57] than oil [24:58] well is the liquid hydrogen but to make [25:00] hydrogen liquid you know that is no fun [25:02] right so oil is the king and will remain [25:06] King because we want to be mobile people [25:09] are mobile to the level which people [25:11] didn't even realize that 20 years ago I [25:13] grew up in Europe when I grew up in [25:15] Europe as a little kid I mean flying was [25:19] something like you know that was from [25:20] movies right you know when I left Europe [25:24] in [25:25] 1969 maybe like two people out of 100 [25:28] ever flown in their life right even in [25:31] late 70s very few people if you were a [25:34] German businessman in 19 let's say 75 [25:38] and you took a trip from K to M [25:41] naturally you jump on a train right now [25:44] you know where the story ends right [25:46] every bus in EU has a side panel which [25:49] say 20 Euro flight from Amsterdam to [25:51] Cypress right right for 20 EUR right [25:54] Europeans are now flying more per capita [25:56] than Americans right for 20 Euro right [25:58] from and Europeans have most of these [26:01] mad connections you know in North [26:03] America we still have the Hub system [26:04] right so if I want to fly somewhere I [26:06] have to fly to Vancouver or Toronto from [26:08] Vin right now in Europe we have this [26:11] connection from Ria in ltia to Zagreb [26:14] right we have from from forever we from [26:18] uh Aberdine to Tessalon right I mean [26:21] it's just crazy Europe is and all these [26:23] this kind of uh by the way you may have [26:25] noticed that last year um a famous [26:29] discount let that Airline be unnamed [26:32] patented the proposal for standing room [26:34] only holding the strap right so I mean [26:37] it will cost probably a Euro right from [26:39] a Euro from Amsterdam to sicil right for [26:41] Euro and this is all subscribed by what [26:43] you know friend of my we have many [26:45] friends you know in Europe they don't [26:47] think twice you know they go over the [26:48] weekend they fly from from you know [26:51] wherever you know from Holland to Cyprus [26:53] for a weekend today right and for bigger [26:55] vacation they constantly half of [26:57] Germany's constantly in Thailand in [26:59] Australia right or you know walking in [27:01] askan Wilderness right now you haven't [27:04] seen anything yet because now Chinese [27:06] are starting to travel by 2020 EU will [27:09] expect 200 million Chinese tourists [27:11] right okay I mean you know they're [27:13] already coming right you can see them in [27:14] Paris and and they will not come to [27:16] Europe they will come to six big cities [27:18] basically right you know so if you [27:19] haven't seen your Venice or Paris or [27:21] London do it now because you know we [27:23] have only about like you know shrinking [27:26] right 200 million of them right and we [27:28] are we are talking about only so-called [27:30] middle class right there is another 1.1 [27:33] billion of them right there's 1.35 [27:35] billion right so you know if Chinese [27:36] would travel like Japanese right then [27:39] you couldn't move in in European cities [27:41] right and this is all subscribed by [27:43] crude oil true we are getting we are [27:45] getting more efficient really right but [27:47] you know even this most efficient even [27:48] beautiful new 787 it still sucks quite a [27:51] bit really right it's 15% less than 777 [27:55] which was 15% less than whatever but [27:57] still you know it's screwed oil [27:59] now this is what people who usually [28:02] retail these wholesale sagas of wind and [28:04] solar taking over tomorrow they don't [28:06] tell us how we will fly solar [28:09] electricity is not quite conducive to [28:11] Flying haven't you noticed that really [28:12] right you know do I put my panels on oh [28:14] yes we can put the panels on the and [28:17] what it can carry what one man right [28:19] lying like that you know fearing for the [28:21] life at the speed of a mouth little [28:24] little moth flying so [28:29] nor can you fly on natural gas nor can [28:32] you fly on V electricity so we have this [28:34] fundamental problem globally now it's [28:37] pushing about 30% more than Wonder every [28:41] third unit of energy we use now is to go [28:43] somewhere really right you know uh in [28:46] the airport today in Toronto I just saw [28:48] this latest [28:50] infinity sq8 or something like it's like [28:53] a it's like a massive it's bigger than [28:56] humi right I it's just unbelievable [28:58] we are creating cars you see I used to [29:00] buy always Honda Accord for ages then I [29:04] sto buying Honda Accord because my new [29:06] Honda Civic is longer wider bigger and [29:09] heavier than Honda Accord right even the [29:11] Japanese cars have increased by about [29:14] 50% in their Mass over past 25 years and [29:17] you know what happened to average [29:18] European car right what was the EUR [29:21] European car they sh wall 650 kilo right [29:24] what is not average European car 1,400 [29:27] kilo right what is the average American [29:29] Car 1,750 kilo right and of course there [29:34] are these other things like these SUVs [29:35] like escalate you can walk past to it [29:37] right for about five minutes right you [29:39] know that's the the size of escalate [29:40] it's about three ttimes ear right okay [29:42] so notice that thing too we are making [29:45] engines which are more fuel efficient [29:48] but putting them into Vehicles which are [29:50] much more massive which totally negates [29:52] all that thing right okay and then you [29:56] have to think about embedded energy [29:58] right what will cost more to make of [30:00] course the heavier car will cost more to [30:03] make because not only will contain more [30:05] steel but we are putting more high [30:08] energy materials into it right the [30:11] substitution of materials has gone only [30:13] one way toward higher embedded energy [30:16] materials 1 kilogram of perfectly fine [30:19] steel really high quality specific steel [30:22] you know we have like 20,000 steel so [30:24] you select the best one whatever your [30:26] chromium vanum specification and you can [30:28] make it for about 30 me right 30 per T [30:32] what is one t of aluminum if I'll [30:34] replace that aluminum to make it lighter [30:36] right what is one of aluminum close to [30:39] 200 g right instead of 35 G right I [30:42] replace it by plastic right to make it [30:44] lighter that steel is bad what is one [30:46] one ton of plastic your average whatever [30:49] it is you know there's zillion between [30:53] 80 to 140 G per so I'm tripling [30:56] quadrupling the cast again every which I [30:58] do to make it lighter more efficient EDS [31:01] more energy into it right and forget [31:03] about the fact now about you know that [31:04] about one3 of the value of American car [31:07] now is electronics right there are so [31:10] many microchip in your car you have have [31:11] no idea [31:13] right I will not tell you the secret you [31:15] will go and find out for yourself what [31:18] is the [31:19] energy required to make one ton of [31:22] silicon electronic quality silicon right [31:24] you'll be surprised it's an order of [31:26] magnet it's not gig per time right just [31:29] you'll find for yourself so what we are [31:31] doing you know we are constantly moving [31:33] in the direction of more energy [31:34] intensive materials the same with 787 I [31:37] mentioned while right composite fibers [31:39] right composite fiber will not cost you [31:41] as much as steel right look at the cost [31:43] it's through the window really right [31:45] okay or you can play with titanium same [31:47] story right it's about five eight times [31:49] as much whatever so it's not only the [31:53] cost of what you pour in or put in it's [31:55] the cost what you embed in and and while [31:58] I'm on this [32:00] uh this applies to all these new [32:02] renewable [32:05] conversions you go to Europe and there [32:06] are V turbines everywhere right Denmark [32:09] Sweden Germany everywhere are V turbines [32:12] mind you most of them most of the time [32:14] are not earning right you know it why uh [32:18] this is a this is a very engineering [32:20] minded class so what is the typical load [32:23] factor a capacity factor of my [32:25] runof-the-mill CI power plant which I [32:27] built in as I say in us or saskat or [32:30] Alberta but it doesn't what is the [32:31] typical Lo factor of the power plant [32:33] that is what percentage of time a year [32:35] it operates well I have to conk it off [32:38] for scheduled maintenance and something [32:40] happen but I can get easily 75% out of [32:42] it no problem chines get 90% out of it [32:45] in shortages right you know what is the [32:47] what is the capacity factor for nuclear [32:49] power plants actually this country [32:51] happens to be a leader we haven't built [32:53] a nuclear power PL for ages but the ones [32:55] which we have we operate them what [32:58] 95% of the time 92 and half 93 95 that's [33:02] the capacity Factor what is the capacity [33:04] factor of average European win turbine [33:08] 25 what is the capacity of aage aage [33:11] American win turbine little bit more [33:13] windy right on the pl 30% right 30% so [33:16] 70% doesn't do anything 75% doesn't do [33:19] anything so whenever I fly from you you [33:23] look and these these these these [33:24] monsters are so big even from the jet [33:26] line you see if they are turning on not [33:27] turning right and it's always amazing [33:29] how many are not turning when I fly [33:31] across Switzerland or France or whatever [33:34] right but anyway people say this is the [33:36] great future I look at these monsters [33:39] and they are monsters right you know the [33:41] blade is bigger than boing 747 I mean [33:44] you know you see them from airplane they [33:46] you know well what are these Monsters [33:48] made of so you look at these things and [33:49] you see green probably you know whatever [33:52] Elizabeth May or Thomas mker our next [33:55] prime [33:56] minister uh [33:58] I'm not commenting uh see that this is [34:01] the green future what do I see as an [34:03] oldfashioned stupid scientist I see the [34:06] big trucks needed to bring these 80 M [34:09] blades to the side right giant diesel [34:12] trucks to fetch it up to the top of that [34:15] mountain right first I have the [34:16] bulldozers the graders grading the road [34:18] to make it accessible and Firming the [34:20] road so these trucks wouldn't collapse [34:22] into it right this is all diesel fuel [34:24] going all the way right there these [34:26] giant TS built into the place right what [34:28] are these big blades right plastic 120 K [34:31] per ton what is the foundation concrete [34:33] how do you make concrete you fire lots [34:35] of coal in the big furnace and te the [34:38] clay around there right then you have to [34:40] do a big steel stem because it cannot [34:42] you know you cannot put it on wood [34:43] because in the first wind it would just [34:45] be ripped off so I look at this and I [34:47] see concrete and steel and diesel fuel [34:49] and Plastics I don't see any renewable [34:52] energy there really right and these [34:53] things will last what maybe 15 20 years [34:57] right and then will they will do it was [34:58] with them how will you recycle all these [35:00] things right which is already in Europe [35:03] This is called repowering because they [35:05] came this first wave subsidized wave in [35:07] Europe in in '90s and early 2000 and [35:11] they put these dinky little turbines [35:12] like you know [35:14] 200 300 500 now they are putting what 2 [35:19] megawatt three megawatts right so they [35:21] repowered they just after just 10 years [35:23] of the service they just simply shut [35:24] down all these 200 300 and they put now [35:27] they putting up to what three four [35:29] megawatt or 5 megawatt units right so [35:32] while if I build my power plant as I [35:34] said we are closing down they closed [35:36] down few years ago one in Iowa which was [35:38] working since 1924 really right you know [35:40] boil is an extremely durable Thing [35:42] Really Right engine is do nuclear power [35:46] plants most of our nuclear power plants [35:48] are recertified and they'll be [35:49] eventually before they die they'll be [35:51] working for what 50 60 years right you [35:53] know I guarantee you not a single wind [35:55] turbine will very for 60 years abs [35:57] abolutely guaranteed you that right not [35:59] a single photo cell out there 60 years [36:02] right um because what will happen to [36:04] them especially in ideal places ideal [36:06] Place being what of course Sahara all [36:08] these stories right they'll get pitted [36:10] mercilessly by all that sand blown [36:12] against them by the way this shows you [36:14] the famous you know this German [36:16] engineering you know for technique as [36:19] how say right so seens of all people Cen [36:22] just made this few few few years ago [36:24] they made a study saying you know [36:25] because what is the number one solar [36:27] power in Europe and in in the world now [36:30] next to China is Germany right Germany [36:33] is about as sunny as Seattle right so [36:35] imagine you make the engineering choice [36:36] you know a place which is as sunny as [36:38] Washington State to be the Hub of the [36:40] solar energy in in Europe right so [36:43] Simmons looked back and they did that [36:45] study a few years ago saying you know if [36:48] you would have put all of that capacity [36:49] which you put in German Sol it would put [36:51] into Spain and Italy and build even [36:54] additional high voltage lines we would [36:56] have saved 40 billion [36:58] I would have told them that when I was [37:00] like 10 years old right kind of right [37:02] because I grew up in that part of the [37:04] world right and I remember as if today [37:07] when they called me when German started [37:08] the energy vendor this big energy change [37:11] shortly after 2000 this phone call from [37:13] New York Times 2000 whatever one to see [37:16] and they say could you comment on the [37:17] world's largest photo plant I said I [37:19] would if I would know where it is they [37:21] said few kilometers from nberg right I [37:25] said come again because I grew up about [37:27] 50 kilm from that place and I always say [37:30] we as children we didn't want to have [37:32] summer vacation because you know this is [37:34] not far from Atlantic and North Sea and [37:36] these frontal systems come every three [37:37] days and everything is cloudy right and [37:39] it rains every three days so you look at [37:41] the sky serious cloud that means you [37:43] know there'll be cumulous Cloud tomorrow [37:44] right and heavy rain there after right [37:46] so in one of the most well what do I say [37:49] it's Seattle right go to Seattle and see [37:50] how Seattle is Sun so they've been [37:52] putting solar so what is the average [37:55] load factor of German Solar [37:58] 11% 12% and you are spending billions of [38:02] DS and telling this is the green future [38:04] you know for even in Spain what would [38:06] you think is the Spanish load factor in [38:08] Spain 16% 16 17% right now the Arizona [38:12] things are getting better in Arizona you [38:14] can get 25% right but the biggest one in [38:17] Arizona biggest one in Southwest us now [38:19] is the you know that one I I nobody [38:23] knows the name Ivan right Ivan actually [38:27] failed in the first year why because [38:29] this shows the limits of our capacity to [38:31] manage these things we are now very good [38:34] with v and Sol to tell you the next day [38:37] it will shine or it will not it will [38:39] blow or it will not right so day [38:41] forecast today forecast good so you can [38:43] manage your load kind of you know for [38:44] next two three days but we are not at [38:47] all good in an annual basis and this Ser [38:50] is proving up really funny right kind of [38:52] the preo Year capacity of wind in us [38:56] will be up [38:58] by 6% or whatever but the production [39:01] will be down by about 30% why because [39:05] this year is a very still year right [39:08] there is much less wind on an annual [39:10] basis than before and same happened in [39:13] Ian they start the biggest solar plant [39:14] in us and it's just not generating [39:17] because it was much more cloudy actually [39:20] right so you see this is the thing that [39:23] this is just gives you a little taste of [39:25] it what we are up to it has engineering [39:26] solution but It's [39:28] Tricky with all of these intermittent [39:31] sources where the predictions are [39:33] possible on a daily basis but Impossible [39:35] on seasonal basis and utterly impossible [39:37] annual basis you've got to make sure [39:39] that what you have a huge amount of [39:41] Reserve capacity in place as way you [39:43] burn right okay so you you can have the [39:46] situation like where I live right this [39:48] is the most ID we are most people don't [39:51] people associate V only with mosquitoes [39:53] and unbearable Winters but that's not [39:55] true we have no mosquito B and Winters [39:58] are quite better much better in Montreal [39:59] you know or in OT right there's nothing [40:01] worse than minus 2 celsus and 100% [40:04] humidity right and so anyway uh we for [40:08] our size about 700,000 people we are the [40:10] windy city on the planet right because [40:12] we are the end story of that between [40:14] from GF of Mexico all the way through [40:16] the plains right so are very windy right [40:17] so it's ideal place to put win turbines [40:20] right so monit TOA Hydro I don't know [40:23] why they put some V turbine they [40:24] subcontracted they don't need it because [40:26] we are 100% Hydro but they wanted to be [40:28] politically correct so they put some [40:29] wind turbines so we are the super windy [40:32] place but when do we need that [40:34] electricity most well of course in [40:36] January right when it's cold and dark [40:38] and ugly outside right and why is it [40:41] cold you know if if only all these [40:43] people would study kindergarten climate [40:45] science well it's cold because there is [40:47] so-called Canadian High what Canadian [40:50] high does well it's simply skies are [40:53] blue you know high air presses down and [40:57] then is not a bit of wind for three [40:59] weeks and our daily high are below our [41:03] normal overnight lows okay so our daily [41:05] high is let's say -5 overnight orus 25 [41:08] but for 3 weeks our daily high maybe- 30 [41:11] right and there is no wind at all right [41:14] so what do I do right when 1 million [41:16] people need this juice well so I have to [41:19] have some other form right so I have to [41:21] install equal capacity in gas turbines [41:24] really right for these three weeks when [41:26] I have nothing really or I have to have [41:28] massive internet connections to buy from [41:30] somebody else do we have in Canada any [41:32] internet connections going from east to [41:34] west no not a single one you cannot send [41:37] a kilowatt hour east to west right in us [41:41] or we do the one in Texas is about 250 [41:44] megawatts which is a joke really right [41:45] you know us and Canada have none of this [41:48] we have this right Manito says all the [41:50] way to Nebraska right Quebec say all the [41:52] way to right New York right BC says all [41:54] the way to California right but nobody [41:56] is selling this way [41:58] right Europe is different Europeans are [42:01] selling electricity like we are selling [42:03] marijuana in this country right [42:04] everywhere right everybody sing to [42:06] everybody else right you look at the [42:08] statistics right it's very [42:09] interconnected right Switzerland is the [42:12] best best case you look at the Swiss [42:14] electricity statistics they generate X [42:17] and they sell X plus 20 and they buy X [42:21] plus 10 they just it's just you know [42:22] it's just constantly moving in and out [42:24] because they are H they are basically [42:25] storage up in the middle so Europeans [42:27] have that capacity but there is a limit [42:30] to it you heard about the Danish Miracle [42:32] Dan have all these V turbines right you [42:34] know when it's VY they get like 80% of [42:37] the electricity small it's a scale Mets [42:39] right so they get 80% of Elric from wind [42:42] but when there is no wind there 7 place [42:44] but still there's no wind why D could do [42:46] that well because they can get the cheap [42:48] Hydro from Norway or they can get that [42:50] coal or nuclear from Germany right where [42:53] is my Norway in Manitoba where is my you [42:56] know German coal in Manitoba right not [42:58] in Nebraska right so if I go green solar [43:02] and wind in Manitoba I have to have a [43:04] huge Reserve capacity for up to three [43:07] weeks right and as you know uh most of [43:10] you being of [43:12] engineering uh background uh we do not [43:15] have any storage on that scale look it's [43:18] very simple we shouldn't even be talking [43:20] about energy problem as soon as you give [43:22] me a gab scale storage for reasonable [43:24] price right okay then it doesn't matter [43:26] what capacity my solar is I could have a [43:29] 5% load factor of my solar but as long [43:32] as it's working little bit and stuffing [43:34] all that electricity into my gabat [43:36] storage I don't care really right you [43:37] know I could have wind blowing only here [43:39] and there but as long as it's putting [43:41] that storage in [43:42] so are we any closer to gigawatt scale [43:45] storage today than we were 10 years ago [43:47] 50 years ago 100 years ago answer is no [43:50] of course we are not are certain [43:51] physical limits for good reason some [43:53] things do not happen this idea that [43:55] Innovation can solve every problem not [43:58] so actually Innovation hasn't solved [44:00] most of the fundamental problem let me [44:03] get back to my favorite 1880s before I [44:04] forget about this um you see if you [44:07] would bring the people from 1880s people [44:09] who invented the world which we live in [44:11] you know the world which we live in [44:12] wasn't invented by Alon musk what did [44:15] Alon musk invent I ask you can you tell [44:18] me one thing which Alon musk invent [44:20] American Media he's the most inventive [44:22] man bigger than Edison what did he [44:24] invent he's buying Panasonic batteries [44:26] from Japan think on a plastic cover with [44:28] a big tea on it right and sells it to [44:30] people right that's what he you know [44:32] what did he invent right and then he [44:33] gets because we stop sending shuttle up [44:36] so there's lots of unemployed NASA [44:37] Engineers he buys them into X company [44:40] right what did he invent right so the [44:42] world we live in wasn't invented by jobs [44:44] or Tesla or Alon musk or or none of [44:48] these people the world you live in was [44:50] invented [44:53] by some young but mostly middle-age [44:56] white men in [44:57] 1880s Thomas Alva Edison William Stanley [45:02] George West [45:04] inous Nicola Tesla these people invented [45:08] electricity generation steam turbo [45:10] generator Transformer electric motor [45:13] without this nothing would happen [45:15] without this you couldn't hold your cell [45:16] phone right without this you couldn't [45:18] hit your house without this you couldn't [45:20] travel on the airplane without this [45:21] there would be no Western Civilization [45:24] internal combustion engine right okay [45:26] Daimler might B 1884 it's all the 1880s [45:30] we've been just simply deriving [45:32] secondary tertiary quaternary derivation [45:35] from that basis of 1880s right so before [45:38] you tell me how impossibly accelerating [45:41] Innovation is moving us all know I tell [45:43] you read your history right and learn [45:46] what is there right [45:49] um I was seuring at a one of these [45:52] Silicon Valley outfits uh about 10 days [45:55] ago and I reminded them that what are [45:57] doing really is about the seventh level [45:59] remove from what really matters what [46:02] really matters is what is Maxwell [46:06] because Maxwell had this idea because [46:08] before Maxwell nobody had the idea there [46:10] is something you canot touch it you [46:11] cannot see it you you don't even know [46:13] it's there right and Max had a brilliant [46:16] idea that it will be there right he [46:18] didn't have any idea how he could prove [46:20] it and make it whatever but that's it [46:22] right 1860s then comes the man who [46:24] actually makes it right sends a signal [46:26] from to be and that's Herz right so [46:30] Maxwell is the first level right Herz is [46:33] the second level right then there are [46:35] people who makes the herzan maxian waves [46:37] go longer distances right if you get [46:39] into what well if you get into Telegraph [46:41] Hill right if you get into Marone right [46:43] we radio and we we get into Le Forest [46:46] right you create a tube right and once [46:48] you create a vacuum tube by 1906 1907 we [46:52] could have built everything television [46:53] everything but the war intervened and we [46:55] didn't right so you get from Maxwell to [46:58] Herz to uh sending the signal and making [47:01] the hot glass Electronics really and [47:03] then you get into solate Electronics [47:05] right which is not which is not chly bat [47:08] and Bin because uh unbeknown to most of [47:12] the people but you know eventually been [47:14] recognized uh the patent for solid state [47:17] transistor was filed by lilienfeld in [47:20] 1924 right so by 1924 if somebody would [47:23] have picked it up he could have made all [47:24] this you know it had to wait after [47:25] another war and we made right so that's [47:28] another level then you have to make that [47:31] that transistor into a bunching of [47:34] something right and you can you can come [47:35] this integrated circuit and that's noise [47:38] and Kilby late 1950s and then you get [47:40] lots of the circuits and make them into [47:42] microprocessor right and that's Intel [47:44] 1970s right once you have the int [47:46] microprocessor then you can start making [47:48] your computers and cell phones right and [47:50] then just somebody writes as some [47:52] software for the cell phone really right [47:55] so you see that's about the seventh [47:56] level of the ation without the six level [47:58] before none of these things would work [48:00] right so we are basically going know say [48:03] this beautiful garden and everything's [48:05] been you know planted and in in the [48:07] garden and we are kind of just brushing [48:08] some pollen of some flower and smelling [48:11] it and saying oh this smells great right [48:12] cell phone and whatever right but you [48:14] know this is this is not original at all [48:16] you know it's so fundamental it depends [48:18] on your steam turbine this is still the [48:20] number one Primal on this planet is a [48:22] steam turbine right it still depends on [48:24] electric motors it still depends on all [48:26] these things so I'm not all that smitten [48:29] it's just simply you know it's pictures [48:32] and you know we are visual creatures and [48:35] we are also social creatures so it's [48:36] pictures putting us together in touch [48:38] with other people that's why we think [48:40] it's such a fundamental invention but [48:42] let me tell you that this civilization [48:44] could live quite well without cell [48:46] phones and and uh any computer actually [48:49] what is the single most important [48:51] invention talking about techn in this [48:52] planet without which 45% of people would [48:55] be dead right now what is it harb [48:59] synthesis of ammonia right because there [49:02] is not enough nitrogen in the global [49:04] ecosystem when I take every bit of [49:06] manure every bit of human excrement and [49:08] urine every bit of straw and recycle [49:11] them into the soil right these things [49:13] contain what straw half a perc of [49:16] nitrogen right urine it's mostly water [49:19] it's a fraction of per so if I take all [49:22] animal you see how many millions of [49:23] people have to be employed recycle all [49:25] the V and put in and still you would not [49:28] have enough nitrogen to grow food for [49:30] about 45% of human population now and [49:33] that was the birri which was with us we [49:35] try you know little bit of Chilean [49:37] nitrate but you know you run out of it [49:38] soon little guano from tropical birds [49:40] you run out of it soon and then comes [49:42] fridge Harbor this is Brilliant [49:44] Invention 1909 synthesizing ammonia from [49:46] its element you put under pressure high [49:48] temperature you take your nitrogen right [49:51] from the air you take a hydrogen he took [49:53] it from hydrogenation of coal now we [49:54] take it from natural gas and create NH3 [49:57] right who is the biggest maker of NH3 on [49:59] the planet now of course Chinese right [50:01] because they have no land and they have [50:03] to fertilize like crazy right and then [50:05] Indians and then so I wrote a fat book [50:09] and lots of articles about this years [50:10] ago so in my mind there is absolutely [50:12] you see before you do anything you have [50:14] to be alive right you know all the cell [50:16] phones and mention and 45% of people on [50:18] this planet wouldn't be alive and 70% of [50:21] Chinese and 60% of Indians if it [50:23] wouldn't be for Harbor B synthes of [50:24] ammonia because your bar to grow what is [50:28] the grow it's protein right what is [50:30] protein amino acids what is amino acids [50:32] nitrogen I mean it's a kindergarten [50:34] science but most people apparently don't [50:36] know kindergarten science these days so [50:37] they think the greatest invention is [50:39] iPhone right I mean what a joke really [50:41] right you know know I fall is the [50:43] greatest invention right you know [50:45] probably like 98% out of 100 even [50:47] educated westerners have no idea about [50:49] hyper of ammonia right BOS being the guy [50:52] working for bus Bish fabric who made a [50:55] bench experiment of Harbor into an [50:57] industrial process in just three four [50:59] years haror was done by in summer 1909 [51:02] and by October 1913 the factory was [51:04] running right that's what I call applied [51:06] engineering CL right you know so these [51:08] guys today they get billion dollars of [51:10] investors money and Venture funds and [51:13] and still you know the company flops so [51:15] you know there is very little to admire [51:17] you know it's just simply very [51:17] superficial but fundamentals um I just [51:20] finished a book about steel uh let me [51:22] say a few things about steel uh people [51:25] think that some Ste kind of you know who [51:28] cares Ste right uh I had to convince my [51:31] Publishers that book about Ste is [51:33] eminently important not about you know [51:35] microchips or iPhones [51:38] um we are dependent on steel more than [51:42] ever in our history and the dependence [51:44] is not going to get away because [51:46] literally and I'm not exaggerating here [51:48] everything you can see in this room [51:51] nothing would be here without steel [51:53] right how are the Fabrics woven by Steel [51:57] machines how is everything cut or molded [51:59] or extruded right by Steel sauce punches [52:03] presses everything right know how do you [52:06] fly okay you know the uh 787 could be [52:10] lots of composite stuff and lots of [52:11] aluminum whatever but what are the most [52:14] bearing Parts when you dunk on that [52:15] ground right you know it's steel right [52:17] without it steel you wouldn't land right [52:19] you don't want to have your steel you [52:21] know your your your your [52:24] undercarriage I mentioned the vent [52:25] turbines right that's steel how do you [52:28] put that photovoltaic stuff on your roof [52:30] steel frame right to put it on your roof [52:32] and then put right how do you make steel [52:35] well you know you make it from uh you [52:37] can recycle it of course and then you go [52:39] through electrical furnace but if you [52:41] make it Deno uh you have to make it from [52:43] pig iron right cast iron how do you make [52:46] pig iron from coal because you need coke [52:49] 1 billion tons of coal these days goes [52:51] into making Coke we know of no other [52:55] large scale method how to make iron but [52:57] from Coke right there is a direct iron [53:00] reaction right we can do that really but [53:02] listen to this we make now about 1.2 [53:06] billion tons of pig iron and we make [53:09] about 50 million tons of direct [53:10] reduction iron right you see the scale [53:12] again really right so suppose you know [53:15] if if somebody gives you infinite amount [53:17] of not cheap but free wind or solar [53:21] electricity right how do you make 1.2 [53:24] billion tons of pig iron right I ask you [53:26] right we just cannot make it if it's [53:28] totally cheap and free electricity right [53:31] how do you fly over that weekend from [53:34] Holland to oh you can say bofur oh here [53:38] comes my favorite [53:40] um sometimes when I fly to Asia so I [53:42] have to go to Vancouver so you fly over [53:44] the Prairies and now a few years ago we [53:45] broke you know things change over time [53:48] it used to be always weed weed wheed [53:50] right now [53:52] wheat is still important but sometimes [53:55] in some you fly over the prair is what [53:56] all yellow right because it's all rap [53:58] seed now right so we broke the way that [54:01] in terms of value now the number one [54:03] crop on the prair is not wheat it's the [54:05] rape seed right have you ever seen the [54:08] size of the rape [54:09] seedy and 20% of that size is oil right [54:14] now you crush them to make yourself [54:16] bioet fuel really right start doing your [54:19] calculations which brings me to [54:21] essential thing about power density my [54:22] latest book power density is such an all [54:25] important concept you're totally [54:28] neglected I mentioned the ethanol [54:31] calculate with me here right you know it [54:33] would be nice to have board but you know [54:34] you are you are highly numerated so we [54:36] can calculate all the sub mag in your [54:37] head okay calculate me in us they [54:40] mandated ethanol from corn corn in us [54:43] there is no better corn in this planet [54:44] the highest un that's why it's called [54:46] Corn Belt right you go to Asia you get [54:49] three tons per hectar okay you get to [54:51] Europe maybe you get six tons in Iowa [54:54] you get 12 tons per hectar on the [54:55] average 10 tons per hectare okay here we [54:58] go 10 tons per hectare one ton is 15 one [55:03] ton is 15 G okay 10 tons 150 g right how [55:09] many Harvest of that corn I make a year [55:12] one right climate is not good enough [55:14] just one one 150 g right so what is the [55:17] power density of it well I divide by the [55:19] number of seconds in a year right energy [55:21] divide by time is power right so 150 GJ [55:24] divide by 3.1 to 10 to7 seconds right [55:27] okay and divided by what 10 10 10 10 [55:31] right hectar is 100 by 100 met right [55:33] okay you've done the calculation is half [55:35] a per square meter right half a wat per [55:37] square meter I get half a watt right [55:40] when I go to Saudi Arabia or to Alberta [55:43] but if I go to Saudi Arabia and I SN my [55:46] well right and that Val is like will [55:49] occupy to like you know half of this [55:50] room really all like this room really [55:52] right what will be the power density of [55:54] production from that well 10,000 wats [55:57] per square meter okay so I need only [55:59] like few thousand vs in the Middle East [56:01] to do what to fuel most most of the V [56:04] right here to fly 1787 to Asia I have to [56:08] plant you can do calculations hectars [56:10] and hectars of land in mon every every [56:13] year just to fly there um you can do [56:17] better than rap seed you can go to the [56:19] most intensive oily stuff on this planet [56:22] which is palm oil which is what tropical [56:25] deforestation and of the plan as we have [56:27] known it right but it is the high energy [56:29] density right you you you harvest a lot [56:33] more palm oil per hectar then rapes it [56:36] right uh you can look into my power's [56:40] book published in in June um if you [56:44] would go for palm oil uh let's say first [56:47] if you would go for ethanol if you would [56:50] go for ethanol only in the US 100% [56:53] ethanol every acre in the US or every [56:55] hectar would have to be planted to Corn [56:57] right you would have nothing for food [56:59] people no fet for an nothing you know [57:01] just um you would go for palm oil it [57:05] would be doable to fly on palm oil [57:07] providing that you would [57:09] surr to palm oil right cut down so you [57:12] see on one hand we have green people [57:14] telling us you we have to preserve [57:16] biodiversity we have to preserve [57:17] tropical rainforest and on the other [57:19] hand they are telling us we will fly on [57:21] biofuels right just do your calculations [57:23] including power densities and you will [57:25] see that it's not so easy now if we [57:28] would be run the system by power density [57:30] is the only not the only but by far the [57:33] Superior Energy is solar because you [57:36] start on the average is 170 watts per [57:38] square meter of the rotating planet [57:40] right that's a big chunk if I can use it [57:42] this efficiency of efficiencies are [57:44] rising right if I can use it only this [57:45] 10% like now it's about 20 WTS per [57:48] square meter if I eventually the [57:50] efficiency 20% whatever I can have 40 50 [57:52] watts per square meter that's a sizable [57:54] chunk right so so the best investment if [57:58] if I would be running the show not that [58:00] I want to but if I would be running the [58:01] show and ask me where to put my money [58:03] into right I would put money [58:05] into seedu you've seen them right moving [58:08] with the waves right oh my God you know [58:11] we generate about as much energy to you [58:12] know boil a coffee in half a day by the [58:15] way the big big seedu company went [58:17] bankrupt in Scotland right last year [58:19] it's over right right so please no tidal [58:22] power no save power um no uh [58:27] no basically I shouldn't say no wind [58:29] because some wind is pretty good really [58:31] but above or solar because if we would [58:33] get the solar efficiency by hook and [58:36] Crook and that out to to 40% right and [58:39] you eventually get there right so if you [58:40] get me a 40% solar efficiency and if you [58:43] put it in a place which has 25% capacity [58:46] Factor like Algeria or Arizona really [58:48] right and when you make a big plant in [58:51] in a desert where nothing grows anyway [58:53] except for that pitting and cleaning you [58:55] know because you to clean it basically [58:56] all the time because if you don't clean [58:57] it the performance will deteriorate [58:59] right uh but we are talking so this is [59:02] the by far the greatest potential but [59:04] then you have to do [59:06] what where the where the demand is in Us [59:10] in [59:10] Canada east and west there's nobody in [59:13] the middle right I said a while ago we [59:16] have no juice lines running from Arizona [59:18] to New York right or if you go big With [59:20] The Wind in monito or North Dakota we [59:22] have no juice lines running to Toronto [59:23] or Vancouver right how how much it cost [59:26] to build one kilometer of a high voltage [59:28] line well it depends where you build it [59:31] but you know if you do it on cheap but [59:34] half a million but that's very cheap and [59:36] very rare usually it's like million [59:38] million and a half it could be 2 million [59:39] three it could be 5 million actually [59:41] depending what you do really but even [59:43] that is not important suppose it's only [59:44] 1 million per kilometer right but what's [59:46] more important what it's the Nim comes [59:49] in right nobody wants to have giant [59:50] voltage line in the backyard so it will [59:52] take you with average voltage line about [59:53] 10 years of approval process before you [59:55] can start building this is what Germans [59:57] discovered when they ran out of the wind [60:00] places in the north Germany basically [60:02] they said okay we'll put it in the North [60:03] Sea right and there we can put the giant [60:05] turbines and everything right but they [60:08] do not have interet connections like [60:09] that to north to south Germany and the [60:11] industrial power of Germany is in the [60:13] middle and the South right so they did [60:15] it this so they started to build these [60:16] north south links expensive but then [60:19] they discovered that even more expensive [60:21] is to build that link from this 50 km [60:23] offshore to the shore basically this [60:26] discover that the cost of that link from [60:27] offshore Wind Farm is about as much as [60:30] the cost of that wind farm itself really [60:32] right so then you have to double it and [60:34] then you have to build these north south [60:35] links in in Germany right so all of [60:38] these things are doable all of these [60:40] things are possible there are constant [60:42] limits running at you and you maybe like [60:45] last year happen you know one one day it [60:48] was very sunny very nice and in Germany [60:50] by law you have to buy the solar power [60:52] all of it when it's available by law [60:54] right so during that one noon hour more [60:58] than 50% of electric in Germany came [61:00] from solar because your Gast turbines [61:03] and because your kofam have to close [61:05] down to preferentially buy that solar [61:07] right only to be restarted later when [61:09] that sun goes down after 5:00 p.m. right [61:12] so in short period of time you can you [61:13] can achieve some marvelous coverage and [61:16] amount of of green power but in long run [61:19] you have to put in huge huge Reserve to [61:22] cover for this long windless cloudless [61:25] uh uh [61:28] um [61:30] and we've been mocking with it in the [61:32] rich countries and in China because [61:34] China has lots of you know U desert [61:37] place in the [61:38] west but look where the future of [61:40] humanity is by 2007 more than half of [61:43] the people began to living in big cities [61:46] right so we are in the future most of [61:48] the people live in mega [61:50] cities think about about energy density [61:53] that Mega City if I'm talking about [61:55] Shanghai or Mumbai or Tokyo each square [61:59] meter of that City average including the [62:01] streets and parks maybe 100 wats per [62:03] square meter if I go [62:06] solar today 20 30 W square meter right [62:09] still I need somewhere else the area [62:11] three times or four times that City to [62:13] GA it right if I go wind which is one [62:16] watt per square meter I need 100 times [62:18] the area of that City somewhere to GA [62:19] that V right if I go biomass which is5 [62:23] watt per square met as we calculate I go [62:25] right I need 200 300 times more area of [62:27] that city right and then I have to bring [62:29] it and bring it to that city right [62:31] totally new way how to organize Energy [62:33] System right because now we bring it [62:35] from 10,000 Wells to these cities so if [62:38] you tell me how decentralized energy [62:41] with your little wi turbine on your roof [62:44] and little solar P your roof will work [62:47] in 70 story houses in mega cities of the [62:50] world then I say welcome to the green [62:52] world right but otherwise it's a very [62:54] difficult thing [62:56] so this is why I always say what we need [62:58] is a rational use of energy not energy [63:01] conservation that's a wrong term right [63:03] you [63:04] know energy is always conserved after [63:06] all right you know you don't need energy [63:08] if you if you know your physics you know [63:09] you don't worry about that really what [63:11] you worry about the rational use of [63:13] energy and rational use of energy is not [63:15] to pour it into three ton car [63:18] okay notice almost invariably maybe [63:21] vinek is a weird place but all of the [63:24] big SUVs are driven by small women right [63:27] because the number one car is the car [63:29] which he drives downtown for work right [63:31] and number two car is an SUV which he [63:33] drives to safe right you know so there's [63:35] a 60 kgam woman Tooling in this three [63:38] ton car right that's clearly not a [63:40] rational use of energy now imagine I'll [63:43] be fueling this ethanol this green fuel [63:46] right does it make any sense really [63:47] right you know the only way you could at [63:50] least make a half apology for ethanol [63:52] after all this erosion and nitrogen and [63:55] you know station by if it you be forced [63:58] to put it into something like we should [63:59] consume like 100 miles per gal right [64:01] that would be the only thing but to pour [64:03] it into this thing right which weighs [64:04] three tons and makes like 11 miles per [64:06] gallon right this is this is Criminal [64:07] think right then we come with LEDs this [64:11] is the flavor of the day everything is [64:13] Led everything is so efficient it's [64:14] unbelievable right so people build new [64:16] houses and they installed so many LEDs [64:19] outside more than I have inside now and [64:21] they let them on all night right because [64:23] is so daming cheap in mon bar right [64:26] that's not a rational use of electricity [64:27] right and of course these Europeans [64:30] flying for 20 EUR from Amsterdam to [64:32] Cyprus that's not a very rational use of [64:34] electricity right one of the most [64:36] amazing illustrations of this is [64:38] remember the big tsunami right the [64:40] Indonesian tsunami which killed so many [64:42] people in Thailand what was the one of [64:45] the largest absolutely you would never [64:47] think about the classes of people killed [64:49] Norwegian babies because Norwegian [64:52] parents flew half around the world to [64:54] expose that baby to Tropical Sun right [64:57] and then tsunami kill those Norwegian [64:58] babies right I mean if you want your son [65:01] why not just to fly from Norway to Italy [65:03] right wouldn't there be enough it's the [65:04] same Sun causes the same skin cancer [65:07] right there's no difference there right [65:09] so we to say that we are wasting energy [65:12] is not saying anything our Energy System [65:15] is grossly irrational grossly irrational [65:19] best example of course I'm writing about [65:20] this right now is [65:22] food do you have any idea what is the [65:24] average percentage of food wasted in US [65:26] Canada and [65:28] EU and all that food don't see food all [65:31] that food is energy right har synthesis [65:33] of ammonia right irrigation right [65:36] pesticides average pesticide 150 g per T [65:39] right Machinery tractors combines right [65:41] steel Plastics everything [65:44] right Western countries was 40% of food [65:47] are produce okay I mean for what to [65:51] achieve massive obesity unknown in the [65:53] history of man before right that's [65:55] that's the result right that's the only [65:57] that's the only thing which got out of [65:58] it you know obesity unknown in history [66:00] of homo sapiens right and and still we [66:02] waste 40% over it right so we would be [66:05] rational people we would be you know [66:07] producing about half as much food as we [66:08] are producing now we wouldn't be flying [66:11] from to Cyprus from Amsterdam for for [66:13] six hours we be bringing Norwegian [66:15] babies to Thailand uh um we will be [66:18] driving Street Town Cars how many people [66:20] in this class have I have to shave [66:22] myself how have to people have triple [66:24] windows [66:27] nobody has triple windows in this room [66:30] in your house nobody has triple window [66:32] you see the point made right this is [66:34] absolutely criminal every person can [66:36] actually have triple Windows not only [66:38] triple windows but triple Windows is gas [66:40] like I have is argon and with reflection [66:43] oh wow you see this is what I'm talking [66:45] about today right so you people so this [66:47] is basically what Canada Canada in [66:48] energy terms is [66:50] living pre-middle ages kind of you know [66:52] in darkest times of like equivalent of [66:54] Canada like 6th Century ad right [66:56] something like that you know just you [66:58] know before some medieval Enlightenment [67:00] before they started building some you [67:01] know clo in France you know I'm just [67:04] people got it's just unbelievable so we [67:07] could again if I would R the things I [67:09] wouldn't want to right you know I'm just [67:11] like I'm glad to do my RO garden and my [67:13] cooking and my books but if I run the [67:15] things I could design a system then you [67:17] could run Canada on one third of the [67:18] energy which you are using and our [67:20] standard of living would be pretty much [67:22] the same except we wouldn't be flying to [67:24] Thailand right you know and except we [67:25] would be driving three down car right [67:27] and except we wouldn't be building [67:29] average houses where the number of [67:30] outdoor lights surpasses the number of [67:32] indoor lights and are left all night out [67:35] there right we'll be charging people for [67:36] that electricity right [67:40] so I will end on my favorite point in [67:43] this province which actually should be [67:44] the Hub and center of it which is the [67:46] one of the greatest disgrace in in [67:48] history of Canada which I don't [67:50] understand there's a Fame company in [67:52] this city stav is Big B which is making [67:56] rapid rains and some planes planes are [68:00] not so good I think but maybe the new [68:02] one will be better right uh new series [68:05] but the trains are Dam and good because [68:06] these trains are running in foreign [68:08] places right have you noticed that none [68:11] of these fast trains is running in [68:12] Canada which country all the rapid [68:15] trains are electric trains right they [68:16] not diesel trains or you know whatever [68:18] you know Choo Cho coal trains which [68:21] country is the best suited to have rapid [68:22] electric trains in the world well the [68:25] country makes them that's this province [68:27] makes them the country is the cheapest [68:29] hydroelectricity in the world and that's [68:31] kec hydro and Manitoba Hydro we have it [68:33] right instead I flew today with the most [68:37] rampant example of not inefficiency but [68:39] absolute idiocy a shuttle every hour [68:42] from Toronto to otwa from Toronto to [68:43] Montreal every hour every hour instead [68:46] of what what are we doing two weeks in [68:48] Japan going downtown in Comfort sitting [68:51] in a train which go 300 kilomet per hour [68:53] looking out of the window you know just [68:55] working on my company if I want looking [68:57] there the F Fuji goes by and beautiful [69:00] green R Fields right and I would make it [69:02] from Toronto to Montreal from downtown [69:04] to downtown in 1 hour and 20 minutes [69:06] right and be done visit right we are the [69:08] last civilized country except for the US [69:11] of course right which is not civilized [69:13] we do not have a rapid electricity power [69:15] train although we have the cheap Hy [69:17] electricity and although we make those [69:19] trains what else can I tell you this is [69:21] a Primitive Country in energy terms [69:22] totally Primitive Country right and what [69:25] is the worse about it it's not going to [69:27] change right now I realize that we [69:29] cannot have a rapid rain from Toronto to [69:32] Vancouver right there is no population [69:34] density in between right my wife always [69:37] Marvels when we fly from Vancouver to [69:38] Toronto from vek to Toronto you fly and [69:41] for two hours you see what Canadian [69:44] Shield right know just forest and legs [69:46] forest and legs right so nobody will [69:48] jump on the train right between Toronto [69:49] and V okay there is Sunbury and whatever [69:52] right but you know that doesn't count so [69:54] you have to have a certain population [69:56] density but surely we have population [69:58] density when there is a shuttle every [70:00] hour right and another shuttle going to [70:02] the Toronto Island now right okay train [70:05] and this plane get gets what 100 150 [70:07] people train gets 1500 2,000 people [70:10] right downtown to downtown much more [70:11] convenient much cleaner much safe much [70:14] everything is superior about it and we [70:16] don't even have it we don't even have a [70:18] serious discussion about having it we [70:20] should have these trains all the way [70:21] from Chicago to Toronto from Toronto all [70:23] the way to probably Quebec City right we [70:25] should from Montreal to New York it [70:27] would be a civilized normal country we [70:28] would have it Europeans have it Chinese [70:31] have it Chinese have it now Chinese have [70:33] a longer network of these things than [70:35] anybody else okay even per capita terms [70:38] you know they are not quite like [70:39] Japanese but they are catching up so [70:41] this is what I mean by rational use of [70:42] energy I don't mean conservation [70:44] conservation what like you know I unplug [70:47] my whatever toaster whatever no it's the [70:49] ration energy and this is the prime [70:51] example of the most irration energy on [70:54] the planet know [70:56] at marari from C to the SE to the other [70:58] SE right there's nobody inefficient that [71:01] allows as VR okay attack me any [71:03] questions show me wrong what the wrong [71:06] number what [71:17] are thank you very much uh so we have [71:20] some time for questions and there are [71:22] mics on both aisles so uh please walk up [71:25] to the microphone U for your questions [71:29] first question there please go ahead yes [71:32] hello I'm [71:33] n uh you didn't say a word about the [71:37] challenge of global warming which means [71:39] we have at one point to right to try to [71:43] I said I know but if you use energy more [71:45] rationally the problem will almost [71:46] disappear because I told you I could [71:48] design caran system using one3 as much [71:50] energy as we are using now and that that [71:52] is the solution rational use of energy [71:54] no but it it's easy in Canada because we [71:56] use about three times more energy per [71:58] capita than uh the other developed [72:01] countries but we don't have to no I know [72:03] but the Canada is window you wouldn't [72:05] have to right I agree but the the pro as [72:07] you said the growth at the moment is in [72:10] China is in India right where they're [72:12] still not using so much energy so the [72:14] idea of rational use I mean you cannot [72:17] gain that much course you see that that [72:18] applies to everything that applies to [72:20] food everything so of course you know so [72:21] what I'm saying is the I'm outlining the [72:24] limits of possib [72:25] lots of the stuff is possible Right what [72:28] is likely to happen is a totally [72:30] different story right um fous reply to [72:34] this would be saying it's out of our [72:35] hands because suppose we become very [72:37] rational right I did a calculation a few [72:39] years ago because I got kind of you know [72:41] fed up is that people attacking the [72:43] Tarson right of course the AA go dirty [72:47] the normal oil not by that much actually [72:49] they not like twice as dirty right but [72:51] you know it takes a lot more energy [72:52] right you have to no no matter how you [72:54] produce it if you recovery them or if [72:55] you use the steam assisted recovery it [72:57] takes more energy than produce classical [73:00] crude o which you know you can pump or [73:02] flowing from the so but I did the [73:05] calculation several calculations saying [73:07] you know suppose we save that extra or [73:10] suppose we will not do any tasin at all [73:13] that was few years ago when China's [73:14] energy was still doing this right now [73:16] it's kind of Ling off so I calculated [73:18] Chinese would have made up for it in 17 [73:20] days okay so fous reply would be [73:23] basically we don't matter anymore right [73:26] imagine we close down thousands in terms [73:28] of emissions right to save these [73:29] emissions and Chin would have caught up [73:31] Global because it's the glob just thing [73:33] people have to realize that talking [73:34] about [73:35] CO2 you shouldn't talk about Nations you [73:38] have to talk globally I mean you know [73:40] the gas mixes right there is only one [73:42] to2 reservoir that's the that's the [73:44] planet right gas may be heavier than the [73:46] than the air but you know it's it's a [73:48] dynamic mix atmosphere so you can we are [73:52] 35 million people so we can become [73:53] utterly rational which we won't but even [73:56] we would really you know over next 20 [73:58] years there is another billion people [74:00] coming in Asia and Africa right and they [74:02] will not become utterly rational because [74:04] they have to use as much as fast as they [74:07] can whatever they can right as simple as [74:10] that so um as I say I'm not you know [74:13] saying that to you know sh and [74:15] responsibility saying you know there's [74:16] nothing we can do but to a large extent [74:18] because this is a global problem [74:20] requires Global commitment right and the [74:22] only time we have been able to globally [74:24] pitch was with CFCs which was a totally [74:27] differencing famous Montreal protocol [74:29] and it was easy why because they were [74:32] actually only very few makers right few [74:33] rich countries were making it and [74:35] actually there were only few big makers [74:37] you know Russian State company deant and [74:40] um and the bridge side um [74:45] I I like yeah so there are very and [74:49] these people switch from CFCs to hcfcs [74:51] and make more make more money on it [74:53] right so there was that easy it didn't [74:55] require the agreement of 200 countries [74:58] and didn't require the subversion of all [74:59] Industries right it required the [75:01] agreement of few rich countries saying [75:03] we pay off the poor countries to switch [75:05] faster and these companies supplied [75:07] alternative product right so this is not [75:09] people say we've done a VCF we can do [75:11] the CO2 totally wrong example right [75:13] because CO2 is everything CO2 is see [75:15] anytime you want to produce your [75:17] biofuels by planting more oil Palms you [75:20] generate CO2 because you cut down the [75:22] tropical rainforest right and the second [75:24] largest source after burning fast is [75:27] what cutting down the tropical [75:28] rainforest right so this solu this is [75:31] only Global solution and in many [75:34] countries I'm not saying you we [75:35] shouldn't anything but in many countries [75:36] you know let's say Denmark you know [75:39] these European countries you know four [75:40] million people like you know country [75:41] like a city in in country like country [75:44] like a County Town in China like four [75:46] million people like they could they [75:47] could totally give up fossil fuels right [75:50] it will be made up by Indians and [75:51] Chinese in in matter of hours or or days [75:54] right so uh [75:55] this is a problem which is not so much a [75:57] technical problem not so much an [75:58] engineering problem it is a problem of [76:00] you know uh us saying well you know [76:03] these people have to come up because [76:06] they will come up no matter what right [76:08] and for them to come up and keep it [76:09] whatever to 450 we we will not keep it [76:12] we are way over 400 PPM right now we are [76:16] not way over but we are so we we will [76:18] not keep it but say 500 you to keep it [76:20] to 500 PPM CO2 really right we would [76:22] have to come down because they will come [76:23] up regardless right you know are you [76:25] willing to come down you know that's the [76:27] question are you willing to come down [76:28] really are you willing to you know [76:30] consume 1/3 one for 40 personal so this [76:34] is not problem it's not a technical [76:35] problem because it doesn't have any [76:36] technical solution because the technical [76:38] solution would be what oh yeah capture [76:41] of CO2 from the air please study [76:43] carefully the chemistry and study [76:45] carefully the amount you would have to [76:46] remove right for it to make any [76:48] difference right you have to remove what [76:51] about 10 billion tons every year right [76:53] to begin with right or capture and [76:55] sequester it down right I used to give [76:58] this [76:59] example what we take out of the ground [77:01] in terms of oil right about 4 billion [77:03] tons right if you put 4 billion tons of [77:06] CO2 down there just reversing the [77:09] process right of of oil production right [77:11] what is it we generate now more than 30 [77:13] billion tons right so this like 15% not [77:15] even so right so again the scale that [77:17] fits us we've got we become so big in [77:20] Energy terem site that there is no [77:22] simple engineering solution because of [77:23] the scale so forget about the Capt from [77:25] the air forget about the storage [77:26] underground that cannot work really [77:27] right so the only thing which can work [77:29] really is to consume less and to consume [77:32] less on a global scale is they will come [77:34] up as they say they will not ask us for [77:35] permission right India said you know [77:37] famous Paris agreement whatever you said [77:39] no we'll burn as much as we can right [77:41] and did you notice what China said right [77:43] oh that's a beautiful [77:45] formulation we promise to Peak before [77:49] 2030 huh what does that mean Pi at what [77:53] level right you know okay so as I say [77:55] they'll get it no matter what we'll say [77:57] I'll do really right so to keep it [77:59] globally below whatever 500 people [78:01] whatever we have to come down okay so [78:04] the onus is on us because it's very [78:06] difficult to tell them you know China is [78:08] about 90 G per per capita primary energy [78:10] we are 360 okay okay four times as much [78:14] right so Chinese in and moreover Chinese [78:17] ra this argument chin don't say oh in [78:19] per capita terms you have four times as [78:21] much no China will say what in per [78:23] capita terms and cumulatively past 150 [78:26] years you are about 50 times as much [78:28] right because Chinese went to 50 90 G ju [78:32] only like yesterday right because under [78:33] ma until 197 they like 15 G right so [78:37] Chinese say per capita in historical [78:39] accumulation terms right we still can go [78:41] like 200 times more than we are going [78:43] right now and you have no moral argument [78:45] to say no to them right because we have [78:47] done it already right so just trying to [78:49] do that right so this is a basically [78:51] it's a it's a it's a moral problem it's [78:53] a behavioral problem it's not a [78:54] technical problem cuz there is no [78:55] technical solution to it not on a time [78:58] scale required right not not in next 30 [79:00] 40 50 years right if you want to keep it [79:03] below 500 PPM or whatever right also we [79:05] don't know right God knows right this is [79:07] an evolving knowledge right you know [79:09] just maybe F PPM will not be that bad [79:12] maybe F PPM will be catastrophic you [79:13] know we have no idea as I said we are [79:15] not very good at getting this you know [79:17] truly long-term forecast I mean just [79:19] it's just don't forget all of these are [79:21] just models right you know just modeling [79:23] is one thing and reality is and other [79:25] right so so perhaps yeah we question [79:29] over here now you've presented us with a [79:32] rather interesting [79:34] Paradox you're suggesting the solution [79:36] to our energy problems is not technical [79:40] but obviously is political and economic [79:43] but those very same political and [79:45] economic forces are pushing the [79:47] technical argument because it's easier [79:49] for them to do so than it is to change [79:52] the system so how are we going to change [79:55] this system in the direction that you [79:58] think we ought to go no so you see I [80:00] should have I should have been more [80:01] careful I should have said the solutions [80:03] are not primarily technical of course [80:05] everything is technical the society is [80:07] just suffused with L technique [80:08] everything everything is so to to do [80:12] anything without mocking with the [80:14] current Arrangement current Tech is [80:16] impossible so you know let me let me [80:19] qualify the statement I would say [80:20] primary because even when we could get [80:23] the most efficient things suppose you [80:25] know we have what we have suppose the [80:27] whole world is using only the most [80:29] efficient electric motors internal [80:31] combustion engine gas turbines [80:32] everything is most efficient as is right [80:35] well that would still save us probably [80:37] you know we see we are having slow [80:39] margins now let me give you some [80:40] examples to impress some people how we [80:42] do not have that much [80:45] room I have in my basement a furnace gas [80:48] which is 97% efficient how much far can [80:51] I go really right I mean you know I [80:53] don't have any chimney anymore [80:55] 97% even soal mid efficiency furnace [80:58] which is now required by building codes [81:00] in Canada is what about 78% efficiency [81:03] right so we cannot double the efficienc [81:05] so I go from 78 to 97 right everybody [81:08] gets that right okay you know so this is [81:11] not marginal but I'm getting what you [81:12] know 10 15 20% is most of these things [81:15] right I go from uh from the best engine [81:18] to the average engine again you know I [81:20] get something like that right uh I go [81:22] from the best plane suppose you know you [81:23] eliminate all the other planes and you [81:25] just fly 787 well you say 15% right or [81:28] 18% whatever right so the best suppose [81:31] we get all the oldfashioned stuff out of [81:33] the system and globally we use only the [81:35] most efficient energy converters we have [81:37] saves us about 15 20 25% right given the [81:40] population growth we are 7.3 billion [81:42] will be 9 billion in next 30 Years right [81:45] 40 years that's not going to solve the [81:47] problem really right and it's not only [81:48] the growth these are the people expect [81:50] to consume more because if China was at [81:53] 15 on the mile and it's 90 K per ton [81:56] India is still 15 now or 20 right and [81:58] they want to go to 90 so it's the [82:00] population growth plus the increased [82:01] consumption right so the technical [82:03] solution as important as it is cannot [82:06] hack it alone it's not a primary [82:08] solution I know but we're still stuck [82:09] with the problem of how do you convince [82:11] people to make more intelligent use of [82:14] their of energy oh people very there is [82:17] no secret to it hit them in their pocket [82:20] make them pay is very simple as that [82:22] really look you know okay let's see if [82:25] somebody knows this what do you think a [82:28] typical you know this non-existent [82:31] mythical American middle class family [82:33] which every politician refers to what is [82:35] the typical average middle class family [82:38] how much of their disposable disposable [82:40] income not gross earings how much of the [82:42] disposable income they pay for energy [82:44] what [82:46] percentage [82:49] 9% 9% and another 9% they pay for food [82:53] the most ESS energy of all right so your [82:56] average American and Canadian family pay [82:58] less than 20% for essential energies [83:01] light heat motion food rest of it is the [83:05] mortgages on the houses which they [83:07] cannot afford and junk made in China [83:09] right okay that's to okay FML stuff to [83:12] be thrown away all these plastic Judas [83:14] and everything right now when I was [83:16] growing up in Europe as a young boy how [83:19] much did we pay for food some of the [83:22] white people will remember because he [83:25] well in Europe after the war was 60% [83:28] right um don't forget even in England [83:32] food was rationed until 1954 even in [83:34] England right so 50 60% of disposable [83:37] income for that was normal in China on [83:39] the M was 50% right in most poor [83:43] countries it's 40 to 60% still really [83:45] right in Europe it's still 20% not nine [83:48] is year in Switzerland is still like 22% [83:50] it's 20% in Europe right so this is what [83:53] we need so so the only way not to waste [83:57] that much and only way to you know use [84:00] things more rationally is to pay more [84:02] for it you'll be more careful not [84:04] everybody right some people are [84:05] zillionaires but most people more [84:06] careful and so we just basically we are [84:09] giving away electricity we are giving [84:11] away gasoline in North America we are [84:13] basically giving everything we are [84:14] giving away food right AB amazing right [84:16] if you think of um if you think like's [84:18] say of of of animals right how much [84:21] energy you have to spend because animal [84:23] warm blooded animal like a pig or even [84:25] more than cow right most of the energy [84:28] you feed them for the time they are [84:29] growing goes into what having them [84:31] running and you know having keeping the [84:33] body temperature right so you have to [84:35] use even for a pig seven units of feet [84:37] to produce one unit of meat right [84:41] for for cows which are fed in this [84:45] big [84:47] fenced Texas Arrangements it's up to 1 [84:50] to 20 right and then you waste at the [84:53] end of it 40% of really right so because [84:57] what I was in I shop several times a [85:00] week so I was soes or whatever and they [85:03] had a sale on pork one and a half kilo [85:05] of pork for $7 for $7 you know if our [85:10] energy would be that cheap you just [85:11] couldn't produce it so everything this [85:14] is you have today every price we pay in [85:16] North America no price reflects the cost [85:20] of production in energy terms right no [85:22] price if you would pay the real cost [85:24] reflecting the embedded embodied cost of [85:27] energy in your sweater or in your shoes [85:30] or in your steak or in your red peppers [85:32] right we be paying for everything two [85:34] times or three times as much and food [85:36] would cost whatever you know 30% of [85:38] disposable income so that's the only way [85:40] to go if you are giving if you are [85:41] giving away people will waste it as [85:43] simple as that there is no other way [85:45] some people will still waste right some [85:46] people ostentatious consumption but most [85:48] people will will manage right so please [85:50] you know I know people con complain [85:53] price of gas expensive whatever but no [85:55] you know this is the we we are living in [85:57] a society which is the cheapest food and [85:59] energy prices in history of mankind [86:02] period That's a statement of absolute [86:05] fact right from now on it it will get [86:08] only worse right we could make it vers [86:10] by Design not to waste so much but it [86:13] will get vers on its own be sure right [86:16] because the stateof develop ecosystem is [86:19] not very good right and the state of [86:21] theel ecosystem determines the [86:22] production of the most important energ [86:24] in the world which is food most simp [86:26] energy is not electricity or gasoline [86:28] it's food and our food production if you [86:31] look at historic long term side we used [86:33] to have these yields you know comes the [86:35] Green Revolution of 60s and yields go up [86:37] up up up up what what have been the most [86:39] of the yelds of rice corn we've been [86:41] doing in past 20 years flattened they [86:44] are not going up up up anymore really [86:46] right and if they'll go up up up we need [86:48] more inputs we need more irrigation [86:50] especially with STS we need more [86:52] fertilizer and if not we we need some [86:54] massive genetic interventions but we are [86:56] not that point yet this is our great [86:59] hope you know that most of our pl we can [87:00] eventually so by synthetic genomics but [87:03] we are not there yet really right [87:05] because once you once you really M [87:07] synthetic genomics you can have your [87:08] bacteria spitting your gasoline right [87:10] and you can other bacteria spitting your [87:12] whatever you know hamburger meat so to [87:14] speak right but we are not there quite [87:17] yet despite of the crisper cutting and [87:19] everything you know it's it's a while [87:20] you know it's like all these men these [87:22] men appear in this this does everybody [87:24] does it this man appear behind that long [87:27] desk in the white coats and say we've [87:29] just invented another cure for cancer [87:31] but it will not be available for next 20 [87:33] years L right so the same is crisper [87:35] cutting of jeans and everything not so [87:37] fast so we will not have remember the [87:40] guy who started the game vent right he [87:41] said you know I will give you the [87:43] bacteria we be spitting gasoline right [87:45] yesterday well 10 years later we still [87:46] don't have them right so it is a [87:48] possibility and for me speaking as a [87:50] biologist this is the greatest hope for [87:52] the future right that we will engineer [87:54] thing which means also we will engineer [87:56] people and that will not be so nicely [87:58] right you know just because you see we [88:00] want stop at engineering gasoline [88:02] spitting bacteria right we start [88:04] engineering people on a big scale right [88:06] so that may be a scary this may be much [88:08] worse than living in a world with energy [88:10] scarcity but normal people there right [88:13] so so next question here uh well thank [88:17] you so much for your presentation I'd [88:19] just like to reiterate a lot of what [88:21] we're all feeling and that you sort of [88:23] opened our minds to a lot of the [88:25] different perspectives on global energy [88:27] problems um I wouldn't mind hearing a [88:30] perspective more on something a little [88:31] more specific I spoke about Canada don't [88:33] forget the most primitive energy country [88:35] in the world that's right that's right [88:37] so I was hoping to hear something on a [88:39] little more of a smaller Topic in [88:40] particular nuclear you alluded to it [88:43] slightly at the beginning in sort of [88:45] making note of France and how France [88:47] changed I I was wondering if you could [88:50] sort of give a little discourse on that [88:52] change as well as what your thoughts are [88:54] for nuclear in the future mostly because [88:56] it's such a dormant and controversial [88:59] topic and then it has so much promise [89:01] but I was in particular wondering what [89:03] your thoughts were on this issue okay if [89:05] I would be flippant I would say you know [89:07] uh why are we talking about nuclear [89:10] energy it's [89:11] de now this statement requires [89:14] qualification right it's that in the [89:16] sense how many nuclear power plants have [89:18] you built in this country in past 25 [89:20] years zero right how many power plants [89:24] the country which is there about 4 38 of [89:28] them now whatever roughly like 4 let's [89:30] say 440 nuclear plants around the world [89:32] of them about 100 is in the US right all [89:35] of them are aging now right all of them [89:37] were built in 60s 70s early 80s they all [89:39] aging to replace the current plants [89:42] right we would should be building like [89:44] 50 of them how many we are building two [89:47] and a half or three and a half depends [89:48] how you count it right how many they are [89:50] building in Europe two right the one [89:54] which used to be The Shining Light the [89:56] big finish one right which used to be [89:57] finished on time and on money it's now [90:01] what nearly twice as much time and more [90:03] than twice as much money right the [90:06] country which derives 30% of nuclear [90:08] electricity from fromy from nuclear [90:11] Japan right I don't have to say anymore [90:14] post Fukushima right Japan will never [90:16] ever derive 30% of nuclear electricity [90:18] from from electricity from Nuclear So [90:21] the West EU North America Japan is not [90:25] building who is [90:28] building yeah you do you really want [90:30] these people to keep on building I give [90:32] you the list of the people are building [90:34] North Korea South Korea China and Iran [90:38] huh and India a little bit right imagine [90:42] an accident happening in one of these [90:43] countries right in China Fukushima [90:48] that's what you call to Hoku the the [90:49] northern Japan which is lightly [90:51] populated relatively poor you evacuate [90:54] 100,000 people you are done with it [90:56] right in China similar accident will [91:00] affect 100 million people right given [91:02] the density all these plants in China [91:04] they are not somewhere in the bundock of [91:05] Tibet right there is no juice line from [91:07] they are in populated areas in East [91:08] China they in the suburbs of Shanghai in [91:11] Chang Province right and CH they are [91:13] there you know so imagine a Fukushima [91:15] star accident in China right it's only a [91:17] matter of time it's extremely [91:19] volcanically active place right one of [91:21] the worst earthquakes of the 20th [91:23] century was just when Ma died in [91:25] September 1976 in [91:27] tangshan less than 50 kilm from Beijing [91:29] 700,000 people died okay this is [91:32] extremely active place right so imagine [91:35] say I don't have to tell you any about [91:37] North Korea nuclear weapons right they [91:39] are building they just announce a new [91:40] reactor running great South Korea well [91:43] South Korea be nice and cudly and [91:44] friendly but it's within the range of [91:46] everything which North Korea can throw [91:47] at it including their nuclear power [91:49] plants right so do I want the South [91:51] Korea to build they have one of the [91:52] biggest programs right [91:54] and then is India right is it stable [91:58] well there is a Pakistan ex door right [91:59] so how stable it can be really right you [92:01] know so do I want this quartet of people [92:03] to and there is Iran do I want these [92:05] people so these are the only Builders [92:07] today so so much about the state of [92:09] nuclear and Russian are kind of building [92:11] right but that's pretty much the same [92:12] story after all these are the creators [92:14] of Chernobyl reactor right so you know [92:16] which didn't even have a containment [92:17] building right that's speaking about [92:19] engineering right you just build a [92:20] reactor and you read the guys to play [92:22] with it at 4:00 a.m. or 3 [92:24] kind know we're just playing with it [92:25] right you know this is how Chernobyl [92:27] accident happened right and then it [92:29] happened it wasn't even a containment [92:30] building at least we are not that dumb [92:33] that at least we had an accident at [92:35] three miles Island right and everything [92:36] remained within the concrete building [92:38] really right nothing escaped right so do [92:41] I want these five people to build no but [92:43] they are building we are not so so much [92:47] I years years ago and I was thinking [92:49] about these things saying you know what [92:50] should I say about nuclear power and I [92:52] came up with oh it's right it's simple [92:54] it's primitive but nevertheless I'm [92:56] proud of it because you know in two [92:59] words it in encapsulates nuclear [93:02] electricity it's been a Successful [93:04] Failure right successful because we are [93:07] getting more electricity out of it than [93:09] Hydro more than all these new Renewables [93:12] right it's a single biggest chunk after [93:14] thermal electricity from coal and oil so [93:16] you've been successful Japan 30% France [93:19] 70% right but it's been a failure [93:21] because we are not building anymore and [93:23] we was of it and we walked away from it [93:25] and we left it to Koreans and Iranians [93:28] right you know so so much about nuclear [93:30] as you see I'm a friend of nuclear [93:31] electricity I have nothing against [93:32] nuclear electricity right if you do it [93:34] right you know you can do it right [93:35] French have done it right right you can [93:38] do it right also even French haven't [93:40] solved the ultimate nimi problem where [93:42] do you put the longli waste right nobody [93:45] has a longli depository Russians don't [93:48] have it Chinese don't have it Americans [93:49] don't have it Japanese don't have it [93:52] nobody has it right so that's another [93:54] thing but so far as I say Successful [93:56] Failure it has been you know it's done [93:57] lots of good but future of it is [94:01] questionable and the cost of it is mind [94:04] barging especially these days when you [94:05] can get a barrel of oil for $40 you know [94:08] to build something for3 billion to get [94:10] you one gab this is not such a kind of [94:13] you know enticing enticing proposition [94:14] so I don't see anybody building anything [94:16] anytime soon after all even the mother [94:19] of this all La France itself says what [94:23] we are not going going to bir anymore in [94:24] fact we will redu right so if the France [94:27] the ultimate derious nuclear power says [94:30] no more then it's over for Power Nuclear [94:32] Power in the Western World right was the [94:34] only Shining Light right look at the [94:36] flaman V and you know it's it's not a [94:38] pretty story nuclear power is a story of [94:40] you know as I say it's been successful [94:43] but it's been beyond disappointing [94:46] actually and in my historic work I look [94:48] at these things you know that there is [94:50] this forecast General Electric it's not [94:52] like you know some you know little dinky [94:54] forecasting but General Electric big [94:57] internet publication in 74 I have the [94:59] original copy said by your [95:02] 2000 there will be no thermal power [95:04] plants no coal oil natural gas [95:06] everything will be nuclear not only that [95:08] 80% will be fast breeder [95:10] reactor there is not a single fast breed [95:13] reactor working anywhere in the Western [95:15] World we all had them we all Finance [95:17] them you know we had them in Japan we [95:19] had them in France we had them in United [95:22] States all shut down right that was to [95:24] be the future of nuclear power so you [95:27] know has nothing to do with liking or [95:29] not liking nule power but the facts on [95:30] the ground are it's just not moving [95:32] ahead it's not happening [95:34] right last question there [95:38] okay please go [95:40] ahead um I want to congratulate you for [95:44] coming to the McGill uh faculty of [95:46] engineering and telling the emperor that [95:49] uh that he doesn't have any clothes well [95:52] there there are some clothes but skimpy [95:54] right they're skimpy clothes that's [95:55] right the emperor is poorly clad and um [95:59] so if Innovation is not the answer or is [96:01] not entirely the answer then what are we [96:03] all doing here um studying engineering [96:06] uh with uh with with Bright Futures in [96:08] our minds and um how close is the human [96:11] race to to Icarus and should we be [96:13] looking say the last one how close to [96:15] what the human race to the hubris of our [96:19] um Collective um ego are we headed [96:23] towards catastrophe our climate [96:26] scientists telling us inflated lies uh [96:30] what is what gives you hope I suppose is [96:32] my question see this when you look when [96:34] you take you know this this [96:36] um very long-term historical perspective [96:40] uh we never know things usually we worry [96:43] about I mean it's not a iron rule but [96:46] it's it's pretty good rule things we [96:48] worry about usually kind of know they [96:50] get Sol but things we which don't worry [96:52] about uh catch us and when you look [96:55] historically this you know that in past [96:58] 25 years you ask what's hopeful many [97:00] thing are one of the most absolutely [97:03] unbelievable things speaking as the [97:04] former citizen of the evil empire is the [97:06] peaceful collapse of the USSR these [97:09] people had 11,000 nuclear warheads [97:11] really right and they just went home [97:12] like one Sunday they just went home [97:14] that's it really right they've given the [97:15] Empire right you know just just like [97:17] that okay there'll be a little Skirmish [97:19] in Ukraine and you know res was CH and [97:21] you know it's not all pretty but this is [97:23] is absolutely unbelievable right you [97:25] know it's like you [97:26] know that's it really [97:30] um China is a different story because [97:33] China Chinese people have benefited [97:34] tremendously from uh after M death with [97:38] this uh turn to more or less real [97:41] economy and you know having enough to [97:42] eat whatever but otherwise China of [97:44] course is is is is run as deeply and [97:47] strongly by uh by Communist party as it [97:50] ever just check the number of people [97:52] which they employ to censor internet [97:55] right just check the number I will not [97:57] tell you the number again check it for [97:58] yourself it's just absolutely amazing [98:00] The Power of One political party how [98:02] many people can employ just to censor [98:04] people are sending each other messages [98:06] yet you know they feel obliged to censor [98:07] that really right so China is much less [98:10] of a hopeful story they have enough to [98:11] eat and they will now all travel to see [98:13] AR the tri really right but otherwise [98:15] you know it's not such a triumphal story [98:18] right um but Russia is despite his [98:20] problem because you know this was the [98:22] this was the seats of the World War [98:24] right and you know it it didn't happen [98:26] not going to happen uh so that was that [98:28] was very interesting [98:31] um the fact that we have been [98:36] able despite of these many prophecies [98:39] how everything will end up terribly 2005 [98:42] that was the peak here of the peak oil I [98:44] got so F busy that I wrote this article [98:46] saying you know this is other nonsense [98:48] there is so much oil in the world [98:50] there's no okay now of course you know [98:51] people now people say there is too much [98:53] much oil right it's too low price we [98:55] should is it funny right people are [98:56] telling us in 2005 peak oil immediately [98:59] we are running out it's the end of the [99:00] world now they say oh we should worry [99:02] about low energy prices we need a higher [99:04] energy price right you know just in 10 [99:06] years right so we worried mightily about [99:08] running out of everything right are we [99:11] running out of anything no in terms of [99:13] mineral stuff we are not running out of [99:15] anything right with this fracking now we [99:18] have probably natural gas in US and [99:20] Canada for next 100 years for nominal [99:22] low price because we are getting better [99:25] this is where the engineers have the [99:26] role to play right when we started to [99:28] Frack right we use this much water and [99:31] that much sand and inefficient now we [99:34] are getting smarter how do you keep [99:36] those pores open right because when you [99:38] not pores this inter these places when [99:41] you force it open by the high water [99:43] pressure right you have to keep it open [99:44] right so we are now pouring lot more [99:46] sand right to keep it open really so our [99:48] yield per well is increasing right C is [99:50] coming down right send is cheaply right [99:53] know so this is what the where the where [99:56] the Saud is somewhat miscal in Long Run [99:58] Saudis will be right you know in long [100:00] run people in backen or Eagle for Shell [100:05] they cannot produce for $5 a barel right [100:07] but they said $60 will kill them $50 [100:10] will kill them $40 no probably some of [100:12] them will produce at $25 right because [100:14] this is the learning this is the [100:15] Engineering Process but it is a limit [100:17] right they cannot produce like in Saudi [100:19] Arabia you know these Old Fields you [100:20] drill the hole and you produce for 25 [100:22] cents basically so you cannot do that [100:24] right you know but so you see so we [100:26] basically we lay to the rest this this [100:29] this big you know terrifying Dragon of [100:31] running out of everything right by but [100:34] we are running out of something which we [100:36] don't talk about nearly as much as we [100:38] talk about PE oil in 2005 everything was [100:41] Pig oil you know everything special [100:43] there is a pig water many places are [100:45] running out of water very seriously [100:47] including large parts of China large [100:49] parts of India I know I don't know if [100:51] you seen the paper in in nature few [100:52] years ago just absolutely marvelous [100:54] paper we can see from satellites because [100:56] these satellites you know we can down [100:57] with with we can down literally you know [100:59] to few millimeters we can see how the [101:02] North China plane and gantic plane how [101:06] it's really sinking because of [101:08] the sucking water from the underground [101:11] water right so you can see from [101:12] satellites that the ground you know you [101:14] can see so this is a very simp because [101:16] there'll be another 500 million people [101:18] in fact the latest projections are that [101:20] India will surpass China about 15 years [101:22] early than we thought right because [101:25] about 20150 now we see about 2035 India [101:28] will be number one population right and [101:30] they already are sucking the gtic plane [101:32] dryway right so if I would worry about [101:34] something really you know I wouldn't [101:35] worry about oil or boite or whatever [101:39] right you know I would worry about about [101:41] about water in large parts of the world [101:43] including China India and including [101:45] large parts of Europe I don't know if [101:46] you realize it but large parts of includ [101:49] Germany Poland are very dry countries [101:51] actually you know it's they Li most [101:53] mostly on River and whatever so this is [101:55] this is my serious serious worry um so [101:58] we've been able to uh to you know rise [102:01] to this resource challenge uh uh by by [102:04] technical Innovation we've been able to [102:07] overcome some of these big political [102:08] challenges you know China after ma could [102:12] have ended up you know could have ended [102:14] up like you know Syria after Assad right [102:16] I mean you know the potential was there [102:18] um Russia after after after USSR um so [102:23] it's very difficult where it will come [102:25] from uh if you would ask me what I what [102:28] I worry about besides water do you [102:30] people realize that we are still [102:33] printing in the US $1 trillion a year [102:35] literally printing paper money one TR [102:37] this is how we solve our economic [102:38] problem can it go forever well of course [102:40] it cannot really right the so-called [102:42] economy this just totally this is just [102:44] fatana totally really right you know [102:46] just it's called quantitative easing oh [102:50] my God what an orali and super new [102:51] speaker I know you just you don't create [102:54] any value you just print trillion [102:55] dollars right you know and what our [102:58] interest rate fundamentally zero right [103:00] so people can go and borrow the money [103:01] for the biggest house they cannot afford [103:03] because it cost them nothing really [103:05] right you know so I worried eventually [103:08] the fundamentals of the economy there is [103:10] no such science as economics it's all [103:12] you know it's in your head anyway but [103:14] there are some physical fundamentals [103:15] underlying it eventually right you know [103:17] and it will have to catch up so with us [103:19] so I think about the state of the global [103:21] economy which is totally ridiculous both [103:23] in China or in US these big powers and [103:26] EU and think of that EU 25% of your age [103:31] are unemployed right 18 to 25 25% [103:34] unemployed I can it go on forever [103:36] without some social unrest or something [103:38] will give eventually right you know so I [103:40] worry about the social conditions of the [103:42] western world I worry about the state of [103:44] the western economy or Eastern economy I [103:46] worry about the state of water Look at [103:49] California California drought last time [103:52] it's not unprecedented [103:53] but last time they had such a Dr was [103:55] what we can read the three rings right [103:58] from three is very reliable right 1,200 [104:01] years ago that was the last time right [104:04] how many people live in California 1,200 [104:06] years ago right about 10,000 of Indians [104:09] right Gathering uh whatever the acorns [104:12] and right and hunting some deer right [104:14] now if it if it'll be the state alone [104:17] will be what seven largest economy in [104:18] the world really right and it hasn't [104:20] rained there just check the check the [104:22] drought map of California it's not [104:25] drought it's not severe [104:28] drought it's not there is one more [104:31] category they have to create another [104:33] category it's called exceptional drought [104:34] right it's not serious it's not severe [104:36] it's exceptional and about like now it [104:39] got a little better on the margin but [104:42] still this exceptional drought basically [104:45] and what is most important there is no [104:46] snow pack left on sieras so there's [104:48] nothing to feed so so in the seven [104:51] largest economy in the world or whatever [104:53] it is now I would worry about it right [104:55] so and again of course I was there 10 10 [104:57] days ago and what people are still [104:59] watering The Lawns going to your [105:00] question right if these people have to [105:02] pay ,000 per drop of water nobody [105:04] watering anything really right but you [105:06] know it's still cheap people are [105:08] watering clones you know just just like [105:10] that right you know Stanford University [105:12] just watering clones at 11:00 a.m. at [105:15] the time of the highest transpiration [105:17] haven't these people taken a course in [105:18] basic biology right you know can if they [105:21] are so stupid canot they want at least [105:22] at 4:00 a.m. really instead of watering [105:24] at 11:00 a.m. really right you know know [105:26] and they told me oh no that's no problem [105:29] it's from Lagoon right well it's the [105:31] water it's the total water so that lagon [105:33] will be gone when they water and [105:34] there'll be nothing left then right you [105:35] know it's just so this makes it good I [105:38] still have my little private reserve for [105:39] water and I use it to water my laundry [105:42] right you know from the because alumni [105:44] want to see The Lawns green when they [105:45] come back to stanf forth and alumni give [105:48] billion dollars in endowment right so [105:49] you have to keep the loans Green right [105:51] so uh so you know to make the wrong I [105:55] don't know what I should worry about [105:57] because what uh what really Catches Us [106:00] in the long run is something which we [106:02] cannot foretell [106:05] uh one thing which gives me the greatest [106:07] hope is that we are living so much [106:09] beyond our means wasting 40% of food [106:12] wasting whatever that we could in times [106:16] of toughness we could you know shelter [106:19] go down scrunch you know go into the [106:21] shell and we can survive is much less [106:24] you know it will not be so pretty right [106:26] no flights to Amsterdam over weekend [106:28] whatever but we can so this gives me the [106:30] hope you know that the margin of the [106:33] waste and irrationality is so big that [106:35] we can pull back right and do something [106:38] like as always tell people I you know [106:40] because I'm an old man so I I have this [106:42] perspective was the life so unbearable [106:45] let's say then I tell people let's say [106:46] let's use half as much energy as we are [106:48] using now half as much was the life so [106:51] unbearable in Bordeaux in [106:53] 1960 and they use half as much energy as [106:56] we are using now right okay was the life [106:58] so unbearable you know in Tokyo in [107:03] 1975 [107:05] so [107:07] sorry that is [107:10] what I have I have no idea what that was [107:14] um so you see we can if to to finish to [107:18] answer a question about hope we could [107:20] pull back quite substantially to the [107:22] level very very let's say 1960s when [107:25] people think that we doubled our energy [107:27] like over past 200 years no we doubled [107:28] it since 1960s in most of the Western [107:30] countries right most of the people I I [107:33] was studying beautiful French historical [107:35] statistics by late 1950s most of the [107:38] French families didn't have an indoor [107:40] toilet and indoor bathroom right that [107:42] all came in early 1960s for most of the [107:44] French people right so most of people [107:47] didn't have a car most of have refriger [107:49] so our riches are very recently and most [107:52] of people didn't fly over to weekend [107:53] anywhere until the 1980s or whatever [107:56] right so this is what gives me hope that [107:58] we are living so much beyond our means [108:00] we can pull back and still live nice [108:03] productive life without wasting as much [108:05] as we [108:06] do well thank you very much [108:09] [Applause] [108:21] than [108:24] so that was a very thought-provoking uh [108:28] evening and thank you again very much um [108:31] I'd like to thank all of you for coming [108:33] on behalf of fasia 3E Ty said and Migel [108:37] and uh please do keep in touch with me [108:39] with tyed and uh please uh look up our [108:42] website for future events which are [108:44] coming up I guess in a week or so thank [108:47] you all [108:51] bye