Derren Brown - The System (Full)

达伦·布朗——《系统》（完整版） 魔术师达伦·布朗（Derren Brown）声称发明了一种能提前24小时预测赛马获胜者的必胜数学系统，并通过指导单身母亲哈迪莎（Khadisha）连续五次押中赢家来进行演示。随着信心达到顶峰，她在桑当公园（Sandown Park）的最后一场比赛中借了4000英镑下注，然而达伦此时揭晓了真正的机制：一个庞大的幸存者偏差漏斗，最初向7776人提供不同的赛马建议，层层筛选后只剩下一人保持全胜连赢。虽然她获推的赛马输掉了比赛，但达伦透露他暗中把她的赌注押在了真正的冠军身上，使她免于经济破产，并让她获得13000英镑以还清债务。 达伦·布朗指导一名单身母亲连续五次押中赢家，展示了一套看似万无一失的赛马推荐系统，最终说服她在最后一赌中押上4000英镑。 (0:25) 整套系统被揭穿为一个淘汰金字塔：从7776名不知情的参与者开始，在六匹马参赛的比赛中系统性剔除猜错的群体，直至最后仅剩下一名连赢的参与者。 (36:52) 为了映衬幸存者偏差的视角陷阱，布朗透露他连续抛出10次正面并非单次的奇迹，而是经过九个多小时连续拍摄、直到概率自然产生这一连胜结果。 (29:33) 在最后决局中，被推荐的马匹落败，但布朗透露他暗中将参与者的4000英镑赌注押在了真正的获胜马匹Marodima身上，赢回了13000英镑，让她得以彻底摆脱债务。 (45:25)

## Background 该视频由 YouTube 频道 ScepticaTV 于 2011 年 2 月 12 日上传发布，页面简介简短说明这是达伦·布朗（Derren Brown）制作的一期电视特别节目。节目记录了达伦如何设计一套号称能够百分之百保证预测赛马获胜者的“必胜系统”，并带领一名普通公众见证连胜奇迹的真实实验。 ## TL;DR 达伦·布朗通过匿名信件向对赛马一无所知的单身母亲卡迪莎连续提供了五场精准的独赢预测，使她在屡屡赢钱后陷入狂热，甚至不惜借高利贷凑齐 4,000 英镑全部身家准备下注第六场。与此同时，达伦在镜头前展示了耗时 9 小时才完成的连续 10 次掷出正面硬币实验，并向赛马专家展示难以置信的概率巧合，逐步拆解人类深陷认知偏差的根源。在终极决战即将打响之际，达伦残忍地揭开真相：系统根本无法预测未来，它只是从 7,776 人金字塔中逐轮淘汰而诞生的幸存者偏差。就在卡迪莎眼睁睁看着推荐马匹溃败而陷入倾家荡产的绝望深渊时，达伦揭晓自己在窗口暗中调换了投注单，最终为她赢回 13,000 英镑的巨款与救赎。 ## Atmosphere & style 整部节目散发着达伦·布朗标志性的智性解构与冷峻神秘感，镜头语言在赛马场的泥泞喧嚣与演播室的冷静剖析之间来回切换。随着赌注金额从几十英镑飙升至关乎家庭生计的数千英镑借款，现场氛围逐渐变得窒息与沉重，让人对被困在局中的卡迪莎产生极强的揪心与共情。在骗局被无情戳穿后的绝望谷底，剧情迎来了戏剧化的反转救赎，观看体验如同一趟跌宕起伏的心理过山车，在带来巨大感官冲击的同时留下了对概率与人性深思的警示。 ## Bulletin - [36:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2212s) 达伦·布朗在特别节目中公开破解所谓赛马“必胜系统”，揭示其本质是利用幸存者偏差构建的概率淘汰金字塔，而非任何具备预知能力的算命或统计模型。 - [36:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2212s) 实验始于 7,776 名互不知情的参与者，项目组通过每轮向不同小组推送不同马匹的 6 选 1 淘汰机制，历经五轮筛选最终仅留下卡迪莎一人实现全胜神话。 - [29:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1773s) 达伦揭秘此前多机位无剪辑“连续 10 次掷出硬币正面”的神迹，实际是耗时超过 9 个小时、机械重复抛投数千次后截取出的统计学必然片段。 - [44:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2690s) 在终极下注中，卡迪莎借款 4,000 英镑押注达伦指定的马匹惨败，但达伦暗中将其注码改投泥地优势马 Marodima，使她最终逆袭赢得 13,000 英镑清偿债务。 ## Key takeaways - [01:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=106s) 赛马博彩具有极高随机性与庄家抽水优势，现场庄家明确表示若存在稳赢系统，博彩业早已不复存在。 - [03:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=226s) 普通单亲母亲卡迪莎被选为实验核心对象，在不知幕后操盘手身份的情况下，逐步接收匿名预测并记录下注全过程。 - [06:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=417s) 前四场比赛中，系统不仅命中常规热门，更准确击中卡莱尔赛道 18 比 1 的超级冷门马 Norton Brook，让纯随机盲猜的胜率低至千分之一以下。 - [17:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1036s) 达伦通过精准操纵四位赛马界专家的站位顺序与宝丽来照片姓名缩写，展示了概率看似达到 1.48 万亿分之一的魔术推演，以此打破业内人士的不可动摇信念。 - [25:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1517s) 第五场纽伯里赛事中，卡迪莎亲临现场目睹 Joe Lively 在前两名相继倒地失误后惊天逆转夺冠，从而彻底陷入对达伦“必胜系统”的狂热盲信。 - [29:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1773s) 主观验证与顺势疗法效应揭示：人们极易把“发生在自己身上的个例”误当成普遍真理，往往受限于狭隘的个人视角而忽视整体大样本的统计无效性。 - [29:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1773s) 罕见概率事件在海量采样下是必然现象，镜头前连续 10 次投出硬币正面并非特异功能，而是摄制组在长达 9 小时的大量废片中筛选出的结果。 - [32:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1964s) 在巨额财富幻象驱使下，卡迪莎走向极端，动用父亲的养老储蓄并借取高利贷凑齐 4,000 英镑，押注于她原本根本无法承受损失的赌局中。 - [36:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2212s) 达伦在开赛前摊牌揭露残酷真相：整个系统从 7,776 人逐轮缩减（7776→1296→216→36→6→1），每一轮都有绝大多数人在落败后被系统抛弃，卡迪莎仅是最终留下的唯一随机幸存者。 - [41:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2491s) 真实比赛中推荐马匹 Moon Over Miami 全程疲软仅获第四名，有力印证了在脱离样本金字塔后，单一个体的所谓“包赢系统”在随机现实面前瞬间瓦解。 - [44:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2690s) 达伦并未真正盲目挥霍受试者的救命钱，他在临柜时凭经验改投获胜热门 Marodima，在让受试者深刻体会赌博绝望后返还 13,000 英镑彩金实现救赎。 ## Detailed walkthrough ### [00:03](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=3s) 桑当赛马场的赌局与“必胜系统”的诞生 在萨里郡（Surrey）的桑当赛马场（Sandown Racecourse），现场预计汇聚了 15,000 名观众，全天流动的现金赌资高达 50 万英镑。达伦·布朗（Derren Brown）置身于喧嚣的看台前，宣称自己开发出了一套针对赛马的“必胜系统”（guaranteed system）。这套系统使他能够提前整整 24 小时，公开准确地预测出高规格重大赛事中的获胜马匹。 为了验证这套机制，达伦在六周前随机挑选了一名普通公众，向她发送了第一场比赛的获胜马匹预测。马匹顺利夺冠，引发了对方的好奇心。达伦随后一次又一次地重复这一奇迹。随着连续命中，这位原本对赌博毫无经验的女子开始押下越来越大的赌注；而到了今天，她已经搜刮出自己所有的每一分积蓄，准备在这最后一场比赛上孤注一掷。达伦直面镜头抛出核心谜题：“真的有可能一次又一次、准确无误地预测赛马冠军吗？我将告诉你们这一切究竟是如何做到的。” - 桑当赛马场当日预计观众：15,000 人 - 当日预计现金交易额：500,000 英镑 - 预测提前量：24 小时公开预测 - 实验周期：6 周 - 参与者现状：压上全部身家进行终极一搏 ### [01:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=106s) 赛马历史与庄家法则 赛马常被称为“国王的运动”（the sport of Kings），其渊源可追溯至 12 世纪英国骑士从十字军东征带回阿拉伯马，并将其与英国本土马杂交培育出当今纯血马（thoroughbred）。从罗马时代的双轮战车竞技，到如今价值数百万英镑的全球化产业，赛马始终与博彩紧密交织在一起。 赛马场内，负责手势报盘的“Tic-Tac”与庄家（bookmaker）构成了独特的生态系统。一位现场庄家向镜头解释赔率机制：赔率 10 比 1 意味着下注 1 英镑可赢回 10 英镑；若有人以 7 比 2（即 3.5 比 1）的赔率下注 10 英镑在“Pasco”身上，获胜后可净赚 35 英镑，连本带利收回 45 英镑。看盘上甚至有一匹 200 比 1 的 14 号大冷门，庄家直言它几乎毫无胜算：“那就像让我背着一张双人床去游过英吉利海峡一样，根本不可能赢；但马都有四条腿，赛道上任何事都可能发生。”普通赌徒往往单凭直觉下注 5 英镑碰运气，而达伦在青少年时期就极度痴迷于赌博以及所谓的“赢钱系统”，并在此期间构思出了这套号称能让人接连胜出的绝对机制。 ### [03:46](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=226s) 命中前两场：卡迪莎的卷入与跨洋预测 达伦需要寻找一个能从系统中真正获益的人，在排除了有赌博史的人群后，他选中了一位名叫卡迪莎（Kadisha）的普通单身母亲。卡迪莎住在邱园（Kew），独自抚养一个儿子，做着两份工作承担全部账单，平时因为生活开支沉重，手中从未有过大笔积蓄。当她在工位上收到第一封预测邮件时，她以为这只是个玩笑或疯话，但抱着寻开心（up for a laugh）的心态决定观察。达伦并未透露自己的真实身份，以免个人知名度干扰实验，只是通过匿名邮件和短信发来提示，邀请她参与一部关于“声称拥有完美赛马系统的匿名爆料人”的纪录片，并特意叮嘱她第一场不要下注，只需观看。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 卡迪莎参与赛马系统实验的早期流程 accDescr: 展示从达伦匿名发送提示到卡迪莎前两场比赛逐步建立信心的过程 subgraph Phase1["第一场：建立关注"] A["达伦匿名发送邮件及短信提示"] --> B["指令：仅观赛，禁止下注"] B --> C["狼队 21:20 赛事：马匹 'Bos' 胜出"] end subgraph Phase2["第二场：初次下注"] C --> D["卡迪莎开启随身视频日记记录过程"] D --> E["工作时收到短信：波士顿萨福克唐斯 18:37 赛事"] E --> F["投注冷门马 'Laced Up' 成功夺冠，净赚 £28"] end ``` 第一场预测是次日晚上 9 点 20 分在狼队（Wolverhampton）的比赛，达伦预言名为“Bos”的马匹会夺冠。卡迪莎在家中见证了“Bos”率先冲线，既懊恼没能下注，又彻底被勾起了兴趣。随后达伦要求她随身携带摄像机记录全过程。第二场预测到来时，卡迪莎仍在上班，短信与邮件同时通知她下注美国波士顿萨福克唐斯（Suffolk Downs）晚上 6 点 37 分的比赛，马匹名为“Laced Up”。卡迪莎对跨大西洋的赛事预测感到难以置信：“当它在波士顿的时候，我心想，你怎么可能知道波士顿谁会赢？”但她还是冲向第一家投注站下了注。非热门的“Laced Up”再次逆势夺冠，卡迪莎首战告捷，净赚 28 英镑。 ### [06:57](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=417s) 第三场与第四场：18比1冷门逆转与千分之一概率 到了第三场卡莱尔（Carlisle）赛事的预测，达伦给出的马匹是“Norton Brook”，赔率高达 18 比 1，是全场最不被看好的超级冷门（Outsider）。卡迪莎神情紧张地在投注站手写投注单，押下了 20 英镑。比赛开始后，她紧紧抓着彩票对着镜头祈祷。“Norton Brook”领跑大半程后，后方追赶的“2 Miles West”在最后时刻步步逼近，甚至进入了裁判终点评判（Photo finish）。最终裁判判定“Norton Brook”以微弱优势获胜，卡迪莎在镜头前兴奋狂呼：“Show me the money!” 这场 18 比 1 的大冷门直接为她赢得了 360 英镑的奖金。 第四场预测是狼队下午 2 点 45 分的比赛，指定马匹为“Formation”。当时正与朋友在酒吧小聚的卡迪莎信心爆棚，而“Formation”在骑师杰米·斯宾塞（Jamie Spencer）策骑下再次顺利胜出。四场连胜后，卡迪莎已累计斩获近 500 英镑现金，完全沉浸在震惊与狂喜之中，甚至开始揣摩幕后指点的高人究竟是谁。 - **第二场**：波士顿萨福克唐斯 18:37，“Laced Up”获胜，净利润 28 英镑 - **第三场**：卡莱尔赛事，“Norton Brook”（18 比 1 冷门），投注 20 英镑，赢得 360 英镑 - **第四场**：狼队 14:45，“Formation”获胜 - **统计学概率**：纯随机盲猜实现四连胜的概率已经超过 **1,000 比 1** ### [09:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=577s) 抛硬币连出10次正面与庄家的嘲讽 为了解释为何看似绝无可能的预测能够成立，达伦指出这与公众对概率以及未来事件影响力的认知偏见有关。为了展示这种“不可能”，达伦在镜头前展示了一项挑战：用一枚一面为正面、一面为反面的普通硬币，在多机位连续无剪辑的严密监控下，连续 10 次投掷出正面（Heads）。达伦坐在桌前逐一抛投，从第 1 次、第 2 次一路命中，直到第 10 次稳稳抛出正面。达伦强调，理解他如何实现连续 10 次正面，正是解开赛马“必胜系统”奥秘的关键所在。 达伦表示，历史上无数人试图寻找赛马必胜法却无一例外以失败告终，而自己的系统是首个能保证一赢再赢的模式。然而，现场的赛马业内人士和专业庄家对此嗤之以鼻。一位赛马从业者直言：“根本不可能有什么系统，你面对的是动物，它不是机器，你没法给它设定程序。如果它早上从马厩出来时心情不好，它就赢不了比赛。”另一位经验丰富的庄家更是讽刺道： > “Well if somebody said to me they had a system, it's rubbish really; there's only one winner, that's the bookmaker... if there was a winning system, there would be no bookmakers.” 庄家笑称，他们每天来上班时都会带上一大盒雪茄，因为他们深知，到了这一天结束的时候，最终庆祝胜利的永远只会是开盘的庄家自己。 ### [12:47](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=767s) 赌徒心态与第四场胜利 赛马场上，赌徒们幻想着赢钱后点上一支上等雪茄打道回府，然而绝大多数赌徒的命运只能是输光所有本金。对于普通人来说，寻找一个能够彻底改变人生的“必赢系统”显得极其不可思议；更关键的是，就算有人坚信自己找到了门道，是否有胆量压上巨额资金去践行、去真正改变命运，完全是另一回事。解说员激昂的声音在赛场上空回荡：“帝国指挥官”（Imperial Commander）作为大热门，在最后的栏架前甩开紧追不舍的第二名 Nation State 和体力不支的 Kin，由骑师托尼·埃文斯（Tony Evans）策骑，以领先十个马位的巨大优势飞跃终点线，实现了两连胜。随着第四次预测再次全中，达伦·布朗（Derren Brown）决定是时候让女主角卡迪莎（Khadisha）亲临现场感受真实的赛马激情了。而在她准备出发的同时，达伦还要去完成另一项任务——打破业内专家的固有认知，让他们相信这种系统确实可能存在。 - 赛马结果：热门马 Imperial Commander 领先第二名 Nation State 达 10 个马位胜出。 - 阶段进展：卡迪莎连续命中 4 次赛果后，即将受邀前往现场观赛。 --- ### [14:09](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=849s) 专家集结与 500 张宝丽来照片 为了验证自己的想法，达伦邀请了四位资深的英国赛马界专业人士。这四位专家受访时均斩钉截铁地表示，绝不可能存在能够稳定、准确预测赛马结果的系统。达伦向他们提出反驳：“I would say that it's massively unlikely but by no means impossible to have a system that would work.”（我认为建立一个行之有效的系统概率极低，但绝非完全不可能。）他援引数学家的计算指出，每场必中的概率大约是 14.8 亿分之一——近乎于不可能，但本质上依然属于“极小概率事件”。 现场悬挂着 500 张互不相同的公众宝丽来照片。达伦给四位专家每人贴上数字标签（1 至 4），并让他们洗匀分发四个信封。随后，达伦要求他们各自在 500 张照片中随机挑选一张。达伦特别强调，绝对不能受长相美丑或名字是否让人联想到熟人等主观因素干扰，必须完全随机选择；他透露，这个过程实际上就是在向他们直观展示这套系统究竟是如何运作的。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 专家实验参与者架构 accDescr: 达伦·布朗召集的四位赛马界专家及其各自的身份职务 subgraph Experts["赛马界专家团队"] E1["Phil Bell<br/>(芳特韦尔公园赛马场经理)"] E2["Katie Stevens<br/>(赫里福德赛马场经理)"] E3["James Piggott<br/>(《Racing Post》记者兼荐马人)"] E4["Jim Boyle<br/>(赛马练马师兼全国练马师联合会理事)"] end ``` - 专家阵容： - 芳特韦尔公园赛马场（Fontwell Park Racecourse）经理：菲尔·贝尔（Phil Bell） - 赫里福德赛马场（Hereford Racecourse）经理：凯蒂·史蒂文斯（Katie Stevens） - 《赛马邮报》（Racing Post）记者兼荐马人：詹姆斯·皮戈特（James Piggott） - 赛马练马师兼全国练马师联合会（National Trainers Federation）理事：吉姆·博伊尔（Jim Boyle） - 关键数值：道具包含 500 张不同的公众宝丽来照片，背面印有长串数字。 --- ### [17:16](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1036s) 无法解释的概率奇迹 四位专家摘下选定的照片后，被要求走向地面上的四个黑点站立。由于先后顺序和位置选择，四人最终依序站成了一列，对应的编号顺序为“1、3、4、2”。此时，达伦让他们拆开一直悬挂在一旁的红色预言信封，里面白纸黑字赫然写着：“The order you will stand in will be 1 3 4 2”（你们站立的顺序将会是 1 3 4 2）。达伦现场拆解了排列概率：从 4 人依次选择位置的各种可能算起（$4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1$），成功猜中这一站立顺序的概率是 24 分之一。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 概率层层递进流程 accDescr: 达伦揭示专家站位顺序、姓名缩写对应、信封底片吻合与背面数字全中的概率流程 A["站位预测<br/>顺序 1-3-4-2<br/>(概率 1/24)"] --> B["姓名缩写吻合<br/>JP, PB, KS, JB<br/>(500×499×498×497)"] B --> C["预留信封照片<br/>开封完全一致<br/>(锁定唯一匹配)"] C --> D["背面编号拼接<br/>1482 065 928 000<br/>(总概率与系统存在概率吻合)"] ``` 紧接着，更惊人的巧合被逐一揭开： 1. **姓名首字母完全对应**：詹姆斯·皮戈特（JP）挑中了珍妮·普林格尔（Jenny Pringle, JP）；菲尔·贝尔（PB）挑中了彼得·伯吉斯（Peter Burgess, PB）；凯蒂·史蒂文斯（KS）挑中了卡尔·史密斯（Carl Smith, KS）；吉姆·博伊尔（JB）挑中了简·贝克（Jane Baker, JB）。全场 500 张照片里只有这四张的缩写能与他们完全配对。 2. **预先分发信封的复印件一致**：专家们在实验最初亲手洗牌并持有的封缄信封被拆开，里面装着的正是他们挑选出的那四个人物。 3. **数字密码与系统极限**：达伦让大家用计算器将站位排列可能（24）与四人挑中特定照片的组合数（$500 \times 499 \times 498 \times 497$）相乘，算出的数字正是 1,482,065,928,000。此时达伦翻转四人手中的宝丽来背面，上面印着的数字拼合起来恰好是“1482 065 928 000”。 达伦最后向目瞪口呆的专家们总结道，他们亲身经历这一连串巧合的概率，与这套预测赛马系统在世上存在的概率完全相同，均为 1.48 亿分之一（或近 1.48 万亿分之一的极限事件）。达伦强调，这绝非“不可能”，而仅仅是“极度不可思议”。留下这句耐人寻味的话后，达伦微笑着结束了这场演示。 - 姓名与照片对应明细： - James Piggott (JP) 选出 Jenny Pringle (JP) - Phil Bell (PB) 选出 Peter Burgess (PB) - Katie Stevens (KS) 选出 Carl Smith (KS) - Jim Boyle (JB) 选出 Jane Baker (JB) - 连乘计算结果：$24 \times 500 \times 499 \times 498 \times 497 = 1,482,065,928,000$。照片背面数字与算式结果完全吻合。 ### [23:01](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1381s) 赛马专家的惊叹与观念动摇 在见证了达伦·布朗（Derren Brown）呈现的精算与预测过程后，《赛马邮报》（Racing Post）的专家彻底被震撼了。他坦言自己完全目瞪口呆，在达伦一步步推导时，自己试图在脑海中飞速计算概率，但很快就完全跟不上了，那些数字变得越来越庞大、惊人。专家打趣说，如果达伦愿意跳槽来《赛马邮报》工作，这里随时都会为他准备一份录用通知。 面对达伦的展示，专家原本坚不可摧的怀疑态度彻底发生了动摇。他起初坚持赛马不可预测，戏称赛马的胜负完全取决于马匹早晨从马厩的哪一侧走出来；但亲眼目睹这套推演后，他不得不承认自己的看法改变了，并对达伦背后的逻辑产生了强烈的好奇心：“我认为，如果马匹像人类一样可以预测，那么达伦就掌握了绝对的必胜法门。”（“I mean I think if if horses are as predictable as as hum then dar's onto an absolute winner my opinion has changed.”） - 专家最初认为预测赛马几乎不可能，如今态度完全逆转。 - 专家惊叹于达伦所用的数学概率规模，承认自己在心算过程中彻底迷失。 --- ### [24:00](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1440s) 纽伯里赛马场的第五场豪赌 此时，卡迪莎（Kadisha）已经接连收到达伦寄来的 4 次精准预测，且每一次都顺利赢钱。为了让她亲身体验真实赛马的震撼，达伦安排她前往纽伯里赛马场（Newbury Racecourse）观看第五场比赛。这是一场备受瞩目的重要赛事，看台上有约 11,000 名现场观众，更有数百万观众通过电视直播收看。获胜马匹的名字已提前 24 小时送达卡迪莎手中，达伦直言，按常理而言，无论自己还是任何其他人，都绝不可能提前预知比赛结果。 卡迪莎此前从未踏入过赛马场，这完全是她的初体验。按照指示，这次她需要下注 150 英镑在她收到的预测马匹——“乔·莱夫利”（Joe Lively）身上。对于她而言，拿出 150 英镑自有资金是一次令人屏息的巨大冒险，但因为之前的连胜，她尽管紧张却满怀期待。她翻看着赛马卡，看到“乔·莱夫利”的赔率是 11/2，是一匹冷门马。卡迪莎至今仍完全不知道，这些神准的预测信件全部来自达伦·布朗，而达伦此时其实也悄然潜伏在赛马场现场，准备在赛后与她首次当面相见。 ```mermaid flowchart LR accTitle: 第五场比赛投注与会面流程 accDescr: 展示卡迪莎在纽伯里赛马场的投注、比赛反转及与达伦初次见面的过程 subgraph S1["比赛前夕"] A["提前24小时收到匿名信件<br/>指定冷门马 Joe Lively (11/2)"] --> B["卡迪莎首次亲临赛马场<br/>下注150英镑自有资金"] end subgraph S2["赛事进程"] B --> C["比赛中段险象环生<br/>落后至第三位且雨势加剧"] C --> D["终点前领先马匹接连失误<br/>Joe Lively 奇迹逆转夺冠"] end subgraph S3["赛后会面"] D --> E["卡迪莎赢得近千英镑<br/>累计实现五连胜"] E --> F["达伦·布朗现身相认<br/>抛出终极豪赌邀请"] end ``` - 现场规模：纽伯里看台观众约 11,000 人，电视观众达数百万人。 - 投注对象与赔率：马匹“乔·莱夫利”（Joe Lively），赔率 11/2。 - 投注金额：卡迪莎投入个人资金 150 英镑，为她迄今为止下的最大注码。 --- ### [25:17](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1517s) 惊心动魄的逆转与赛后相见 比赛正式开闸，身着黄红相间彩衣的“乔·莱夫利”排在外侧起跑，落后领跑马一个多马位。在通过水障等障碍时，比赛充满了悬念与混乱。随着赛程推进，“乔·莱夫利”一度疲态尽显、脚步沉重，卡迪莎在看台上急得直跺脚，惊呼它“掉队掉得像头驴一样”，雨势也在这时倾盆而下。眼看着它落到了第三位，似乎回天乏术，卡迪莎绝望地质问怎么可能会有所谓的必胜系统。然而戏剧性的一幕在最后一道障碍前发生：原本领先的第一名和第二名马匹相继严重失误甚至倒地，原本看似败局已定的“乔·莱夫利”在终点线前幸运地超越对手，率先撞线夺冠。 这一戏剧性反转让卡迪莎狂喜不已，连本带利赢回了近 1,000 英镑（派彩记录约为 852.97 英镑等款项）。就在她激动得手舞足蹈之时，工作人员将她带往赛马场的一处房间，与一直暗中主导这一切的神秘人见面。当达伦·布朗微笑着出现在她面前时，卡迪莎从狂喜转为震惊与害怕，她抱头惊呼：“如果早知道是你，我后悔没押上更多钱！”达伦向她正式摊牌，宣称自己研发了一套 100% 绝对有效、绝无失手的赛马必胜系统，卡迪莎亲眼见证的五连胜就是铁证。紧接着，达伦向她提出了终极挑战：他将提供第六场、也是最后一场比赛的冠军马匹，但他要求卡迪莎这次必须押上数千英镑的巨款，借此彻底改变她的人生，并承诺赛后将把这套系统的运作秘密全盘传授给她。 - 赛果戏剧性：“乔·莱夫利”在最后障碍前一直处于第三位，因领先马匹失误而戏剧性反超获胜。 - 奖金收获：卡迪莎赢得接近 1,000 英镑，五场比赛保持全胜纪录。 - 达伦的提议：提供第 6 场也是最后一场比赛的预测，要求卡迪莎筹集数千英镑下注，并承诺倾囊相授这套系统。 --- ### [29:33](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1773s) 顺势疗法、顺币实验与认知偏差揭秘 在卡迪莎陷入狂热与纠结的同时，达伦面对镜头，开始向观众拆解这套“必胜系统”背后的心理学与概率陷阱。达伦拿出一瓶名为黄芪（Astragalus）的顺势疗法制剂作为比喻：人们常在病毒感染、失眠或糖尿病时求助于替代疗法或能量水晶；有人生病服药后痊愈了，便坚信这是神药，认为“它对我有效，这就是最好的证据”。然而达伦指出，当这些疗法在成千上万人身上进行严格的大样本双盲测试时，结果证明它们毫无实际疗效：“人们容易落入的陷阱是认为：我所需要的全部证据，就是我脑子里所认知的、心里所感受到的、以及我认准为真的东西；但那根本不是事实成立的证据，那只是说明了你有多么深信不疑，以及你自身的视角有多么狭隘局限。”（“The trap that people fall into is to think all the evidence I need is what I know in my head and I feel in my heart and what I just know to be true but there isn't really evidence for it being true that's just a statement about how much you believe it and also how limiting your own perspective can be.”） 为了彻底打破这种狭隘的主观视角，达伦揭开了此前他在节目中“连续抛出 10 次正面硬币”的惊人神迹。观众此前看到的只是连续 10 次正面的神奇瞬间，单次预测并抛出 10 次连正的概率约为千分之一（$1/1024$）。但达伦揭示了残酷的拍摄幕后：摄制组在房间里整整拍摄了超过 9 个小时，达伦机械地重复抛币成千上万次，累得眼花缭乱。在数千次漫长的抛掷序列中，出现一段连续 10 次正面在统计学上变成了“不可避免的必然事件”，而观众看到的仅仅是耗费漫长一天后所剪辑出的最后 1 分钟。达伦强调，我们往往仅凭自身有限的经验去认知世界，而这种经验往往与真相相差甚远。观众之所以还没看破赛马系统的真相，完全是因为大家一直被局限在卡迪莎个人的单一视角中。 - 替代疗法陷阱：个体在服用顺势疗法后康复便认定其有效，忽略了自然康复与大样本下的统计无效性。 - 抛硬币真相：连续抛出 10 次正面的镜头并非魔术特异功能，而是连续拍摄超过 9 个小时、抛掷数千次后的自然概率产物。 - 概率反差：指定单次出现 10 连正的概率约为 1/1,000，但若在数千次抛掷样本中，出现 10 连正则是高概率的必然现象。 --- ### [32:44](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=1964s) 卡迪莎的孤注一掷与终极风暴前夕 被系统彻底征服的卡迪莎开始四处奔走筹集赌本。现实生活中的她经济非常拮据，甚至处于破产边缘，拿出巨额资金去赌马对她而言无异于疯狂之举。但被巨额财富与改变命运的幻想驱动着，她暗自盘算着赢钱后要给父亲一大笔钱，并带兄弟、儿子和侄子去度假。她来到了父亲家中，父亲对于赌博深恶痛绝，他自己过去在赛马上下过的最大赌注只有 20 英镑，输掉之后便发誓再也不碰，因此当听闻卡迪莎要借钱下大注时感到极度震惊与担忧，甚至难以相信这是正规电视节目的一部分。 尽管充满恐惧与疑虑，父亲最终还是拿出了 1,000 英镑养老储蓄交给卡迪莎。这笔钱对整个家庭来说是一笔沉甸甸的巨款。然而仅有父亲的钱还不够，卡迪莎对达伦系统的狂热信任驱使她进一步走向极端——她甚至走向了一家小额贷款公司借取高利贷。达伦在旁白中神情严肃地指出，卡迪莎如今带着借来的血汗钱和贷款来到了桑当赛马场（Sandown Racecourse），准备孤注一掷押上她根本输不起的救命钱。天空阴雨连绵，一场关乎一个普通人家庭命运、揭露系统残酷真相的终极赌局即将上演。 - 筹资途径：从父亲处借得 1,000 英镑现金，并进一步向贷款公司（Loan Company）借贷。 - 父亲的态度：极为震惊和担忧，自述曾押过 20 英镑输掉后便永不再赌，认为赌博是败家行为。 - 决战舞台：桑当赛马场（Sandown Racecourse），现场持续下着阴雨，气氛紧张凝重。 ### [34:49](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2089s) 赛前下注与四千英镑的沉重筹码 比赛场地的情形非常泥泞，赛道地面状况极重（heavy going）。在现场解说与分析中，热门马匹当属在切尔滕汉姆（Cheltenham）刚刚取胜的 2 号马“迈阿密之月”（Moon Over Miami）；另一匹由帕蒂·布伦南（Patty Brennan）策骑、奈吉尔·特威斯顿-戴维斯（Nigel Twiston-Davies）调教的“桃花心木烈焰”（Mahogany Blaze）也备受看好；此外还有极擅长在重泥地奔跑的马匹“薄煎饼”（Pancake），以及顶级练马师保罗·尼科尔斯（Paul Nicholls）麾下的“马拉达”（Marodima）。这四匹马中的任何一匹都有问鼎的可能。 达伦·布朗（Derren Brown）与女主角卡迪莎（Kadisha）会面。在上一次谈话时，达伦曾叮嘱她必须为今天的这场关键比赛筹集很大一笔资金。卡迪莎确认自己已经带来了整整 4,000 英镑。这笔巨款对她而言极其沉重：除了一部分来自贷款公司，其余的则是向她父亲借来的。她坦言把实情告诉了父亲，这让她更加坐立不安。达伦向她给出了今天的内部“推荐”——2 号马“迈阿密之月”，并嘱咐她盯紧穿绿白相间彩衣的骑师。 达伦以“不想让你提前看到能赢多少钱”为由，提出代她去投注窗口排队下注。卡迪莎把厚厚一叠现金交到了达伦手中。面对镜头，卡迪莎的焦虑与恐惧达到了顶峰，她深呼吸着反思自己的疯狂举动：““从我爸那里拿钱让我感到不知所措，更加焦虑。”（Taking £4,000 from my dad makes me feel very overwhelmed and more anxious.）”随后，达伦拿着装好注单的信封返回，把投注票递给卡迪莎，郑重告诫她千万不要弄丢。 - 关键马匹阵容：2 号热门马 Moon Over Miami、Mahogany Blaze、泥地好手 Pancake、Paul Nicholls 调教的 Marodima。 - 下注金额：总计 4,000 英镑（部分借自贷款公司，部分借自其父亲）。 - 官方下注推荐：达伦指定 2 号马 Moon Over Miami。 --- ### [36:52](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2212s) 骗局真相大白：7,776 人的金字塔淘汰机制 就在比赛即将打响之际，达伦突然停下脚步问卡迪莎：“你想知道这是怎么做到的吗？”随后，他揭开了整个“包赢系统”令人震惊的数学真相。 达伦解释道，卡迪莎根本不是那个唯一的“天选之子”，该系统之所以奏效，完全是因为“幸存者偏差”的概率机制。几个月前项目启动时，团队总共联系了 7,776 人。这些人被随机均分为 6 组，对应一场 6 匹马参赛的赛马（第一场为伍尔弗汉普顿赛道晚 9:20 的赛事）。每组人被告知不同的马会赢；比赛结束后，只有押中冠军马（Bos）的那一组人留了下来，其余 5 组被淘汰并收到一封声称“系统出现故障”的道歉信。卡迪莎碰巧就在赢钱的那一组。 ```mermaid flowchart TD accTitle: 幸存者偏差投注系统流程图 accDescr: 展示从7776人逐轮递减至卡迪莎1人的6选1淘汰金字塔过程 subgraph Round1 ["第一轮：7,776 人"] A["7,776 人分成 6 组"] -->|仅冠军马组胜出| B["1,296 人晋级"] end subgraph Round2 ["第二轮：1,296 人"] B -->|均分 6 组投注| C["216 人晋级"] end subgraph Round3 ["第三轮：216 人"] C -->|卡莱尔赛道 36 人全中| D["36 人晋级"] end subgraph Round4 ["第四轮：36 人"] D -->|纽伯里赛道 6 组角逐| E["6 人晋级"] end subgraph Final ["最终轮：幸存的 1 人"] E -->|上一周赛事实录淘汰| F["卡迪莎成为唯一连赢 5 场的幸存者"] end ``` 每一轮比赛都在重复这个数学漏斗：第二场比赛将剩余的 1,296 人再分 6 组淘汰至 216 人；第三场（卡莱尔 2:20）由 Norton Brook 获胜，留下 36 人；第四场（纽伯里 3:45）由 Formation 获胜，剩下 6 人。画面穿插了上一场比赛中其他参与者的镜头——他们彼此隔开，每个人都以为自己是唯一被跟拍录节目的主角，拿着自己的 150 英镑下注在不同的马（如 Nevada Royale 或 Here's Johnny）。当那些马匹失足翻倒或落败时，他们绝望地意识到系统失效并被无情淘汰。最终，只有卡迪莎一人在 5 场比赛中全部猜中。 达伦向卡迪莎坦白了最残酷的事实：““这是一个始于 7,776 人的金字塔，他们都收到了匿名推荐，除了一个人之外，所有人都随着系统失灵而被淘汰，最后只剩下唯一一个碰巧连赢五次的随机胜者。”（It's a pyramid which begins with 7,776 people who are all sent anonymous tips, all but one of them are eliminated as the system fails for them and we're left with just one single random winner who has had five consecutive wins.）”卡迪莎听罢如五雷轰顶，因为这意味着今天根本没有什么必胜系统，达伦完全无法预测谁会赢，而她却刚刚把倾家荡产借来的 4,000 英镑押在了一场完全随机的比赛上。 --- ### [41:31](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2491s) 极度窒息的赛程：推荐马匹溃败 卡迪莎脸色惨白，惊呼自己快要吐了、几乎晕厥过去，她在心中疯狂咒骂，但比赛发令枪已经打响。她用自己输不起的 4,000 英镑巨款，押在了一场结果未知的比赛上。如果输了，她将面对无法承受的债务。 赛道上下着雨夹雪，天气极其恶劣。卡迪莎紧盯着身着绿白方格彩衣的骑师。比赛开始后，由“马拉达”（Marodima）一路领跑，“薄煎饼”（Pancake）和“桃花心木烈焰”（Mahogany Blaze）紧随其后。卡迪莎下注的“迈阿密之月”始终落在后方，一度落后领头马多达 7 个马位。 随着赛程推进，马群跨越水障并跑过看台前，4,000 英镑的压力让卡迪莎屏住呼吸。然而“迈阿密之月”全程表现疲软，始终卡在第四名，毫无起色。转入最后一个弯道时，“迈阿密之月”彻底脱节败局已定。领头的“马拉达”展现出凌厉流畅的跳栏技巧，抵挡住了“桃花心木烈焰”的猛烈反扑，率先冲过终点线，夺得亨利八世新手障碍赛（Henry VIII Novices' Chase）桂冠。卡迪莎押注的“迈阿密之月”仅仅跑出第四名。 - 赛况名次： 1. 冠军：3 号马 Marodima（全程领跑，保罗·尼科尔斯调教） 2. 亚军：Mahogany Blaze 3. 季军：Pancake 4. 第四名：Moon Over Miami（卡迪莎票面上的马匹，惨败） --- ### [44:50](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=2690s) 绝望后的逆转：暗中调换的彩票与最终救赎 终点哨响的一瞬，卡迪莎整个人陷入崩溃。她看着手里一文不值的彩票，颤抖着反复念叨：“4,000 英镑就这么没了，我怎么可能会输？我已经连赢了五次啊！”她含着眼泪痛苦地说道：““我来的时候身无分文，现在我更穷了。我爸会杀了我。”（I came in broke and now I'm even more broke, dad's going to kill me.）”她强忍着不让自己在摄像机镜头前哭出来。 达伦静静看着她，随即开口问道：“你真的以为我会拿着你借来的钱去盲目赌博吗？”达伦让她拿出刚才交给她的彩票仔细查看。 达伦透露，刚才他拿着现金走到投注窗口时，凭经验判断“迈阿密之月”根本不可能在这样的重泥地取胜。因此，他在最后一刻违背了原本的“推荐”，用那 4,000 英镑全部买下了真正跑第一的 3 号马“马拉达”（Marodima）。注单上白纸黑字写着的正是“Marodima 独赢”。 按照赔率计算，卡迪莎不仅没有损失本金，反而一举赢得了 13,000 英镑（13 Grand）的巨额奖金。情绪从深渊瞬间被抛上云端的卡迪莎破涕为笑，尖叫着抱住达伦大喊：“天哪我爱你！但你这样吓人实在太过分了！”在去兑现大笔现金的路上，卡迪莎对着镜头激动地表示，就在一分钟前自己还对达伦恨之入骨，但现在一切都难以置信，““这太棒了，因为我无债一身轻了，三十多年来第一次无债一身轻。”（It's fantastic cuz I'm debt free, I'm debt free for the first time in gone 30 years.）” ## Notable quotes > [09:37](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4&t=577s) Well if somebody said to me they had a system, it's rubbish really; there's only one winner, that's the bookmaker... if there was a winning system, there would be no bookmakers. — 现场庄家 ## Mentioned 达伦·布朗, 卡迪莎, 桑当赛马场, 纽伯里赛马场, 狼队赛马场, 卡莱尔赛马场, 芳特韦尔公园赛马场, 赫里福德赛马场, 赛马邮报, 全国练马师联合会, 菲尔·贝尔, 凯蒂·史蒂文斯, 詹姆斯·皮戈特, 吉姆·博伊尔, 保罗·尼科尔斯, 奈吉尔·特威斯顿-戴维斯, 帕蒂·布伦南, 杰米·斯宾塞, 托尼·埃文斯 ## Video description Another one of Derren's TV shows [Source](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R5OWh7luL4)

[9:37] 现场庄家: Well if somebody said to me they had a system, it's rubbish really; there's only one winner, that's the bookmaker... if there was a winning system, there would be no bookmakers.

[9:37] Bookmaker: Well, if somebody said to me they had a system, it's rubbish really; there's only one winner, and that's the bookmaker.

[0:03] [Music] [0:10] [Music] [0:25] I'm here at Sandown race course in s [0:27] they're expecting 15,000 people here [0:29] today half a million P to be exchanged [0:31] in cash I'm here because I've developed [0:34] a guaranteed system for winning at the [0:36] horses this system allows me to predict [0:39] 24 hours in advance quite openly which [0:42] horse will win in big high-profile races [0:45] now to prove this 6 weeks ago I took a [0:48] woman a random member of the public and [0:50] I told her which horse was going to win [0:52] in a certain race it did win she was [0:54] intrigued I then did it again and again [0:57] and again she started to bet larger and [0:59] larger amounts of money now today that [1:01] woman has scraped together every last [1:04] penny that she can find and she is [1:06] risking an all on one final race is it [1:10] really possible to accurately predict [1:12] the winner of a horse race again and [1:14] again and again I'm going to tell you [1:15] exactly how that's done welcome to the [1:20] [Applause] [1:28] system [1:35] [Applause] [1:46] the mfi has G clear as he heads down [1:49] towards the second last with Jamie Mo he [1:51] leads by six or seven lefts racing often [1:54] nicknamed the sport of Kings can be [1:56] traced back to the 12th century after [1:58] the English Knights turned from the [2:00] Crusades with Arab horses they were bred [2:02] with English horses to produce the [2:04] thorough bread that is the breed used in [2:06] horse racing in the UK today since the [2:09] chariot races of Roman times to the [2:11] multi-million pound Global business [2:13] today horse racing has been a popular [2:16] sport in many countries throughout [2:17] history and is often inextricably [2:19] associated with [2:21] gambling four bar to the five four bar [2:26] reach line two to one that's two to one [2:28] the Tic Tac is two to one is on the go [2:30] is two to one the book maker is a person [2:33] who takes bets off of punters punters [2:36] back horses and the book maker plays you [2:38] out if you win if it's 10 to one if you [2:40] put a pound on you get1 back so somebody [2:43] there just had1 on Pasco at 7 to two 7 [2:46] to two is three and 1 half to one so for [2:48] their £10 they'll win £35 plus their 10 [2:51] State they'll get 45 returns but as you [2:54] can see we've got offis on the board [2:55] here at 200 to1 number 14 now that's got [2:59] practically no chance chance of win it's [3:00] like me swimming a Channel with a double [3:01] bed on me back he's got no possible [3:03] chance you know but they've all got four [3:05] legs you know that theyve all got four [3:07] legs on the to so anything can happen [3:09] it's just Instinct you just see a horse [3:11] you think oh that looks good I'll maybe [3:14] put My5 on that one will be coming out [3:17] for the next I was rather obsessed with [3:19] gambling as a teenager and in particular [3:21] the idea of winning systems and it was [3:23] around that time that this system was [3:25] born a guaranteed way of having somebody [3:28] win at the horses again and again and [3:30] again so I needed somebody who would [3:32] benefit from my system so I took a [3:34] random member of the public after making [3:35] sure that she didn't have a history of [3:37] gambling and I sent her an email without [3:39] mentioning my name predicting the winner [3:41] of the next day's horse [3:46] race my name is kadisha I live in Q I [3:51] work two jobs I have a [3:53] son my personal situation is I'm a [3:56] single mom I pay all bills by myself [4:00] with the two jobs that I had I never [4:02] have a large sum of money cuz it always [4:04] goes out because of responsibilities [4:06] that I've got in [4:08] life I was sat at my desk when I got my [4:10] first tip I received an email first I [4:14] thought it was a bit crazy a bit mad but [4:16] I thought hey I'm up for a laugh so [4:18] bring [4:20] on I didn't tell kadisha that it was me [4:23] sending her the predictions because I [4:24] didn't want that knowledge affecting her [4:26] but instead I said about sending her a [4:28] number of anonymous tips sent over [4:31] several weeks so that she would gain the [4:33] confidence in the system that I wanted [4:35] her to [4:37] have I got it by email first then I got [4:41] confirmation Again by a [4:43] text gave me details of the horse time [4:47] it was running and where it was running [4:50] and it said that I wasn't able to bet I [4:51] could just I just have to watch the [4:54] race we emailed kadisha and offered her [4:56] the chance to take part in a TV [4:58] documentary about an anonymous tipster [5:01] who claimed to have a perfect system for [5:03] the horses along with the email I also [5:05] sent her my first prediction and told [5:07] her not to place a bet but just to make [5:09] sure she watched the race I told her [5:12] that the 920 at wolver Hampton the next [5:14] day would be won by a horse called BOS [5:18] there off and BOS was swiftly into it [5:20] stride in the blue jacket to the inside [5:22] on the day of the race I hope she'd be [5:24] watching at home to see if the [5:25] prediction would come true she was and [5:27] she saw the race was won by b as I [5:31] predicted on I had got her [5:34] attention I was guty that I couldn't put [5:36] a bit on but hey I watched it and it [5:39] won now that kadisha was getting more [5:42] intrigued I asked her to keep a video [5:44] diary of her experience from this point [5:46] onwards and to keep the camera with her [5:48] as a tip could come at any time pcing my [5:51] second bet now with a system very [5:54] confident race two when I was able to [5:56] put a bet down I was given just the name [5:59] of the horse from the time again I was [6:02] at work received it by text again [6:05] confirmed by [6:06] email and I literally left my desk it [6:09] wasn't even like I need to go out I just [6:11] zoomed out to the first betting shop [6:14] recorded [6:15] myself it was exciting actually my next [6:19] prediction for kadisha again 24 hours in [6:22] advance of the race was for the 637 at [6:24] suffk Downs in Boston in America and for [6:27] a horse called laced up to win when was [6:30] in Boston I was like how can you know [6:31] who's gonna win in [6:33] Boston the system guarantees a winner [6:36] but despite how impossible that sounds [6:38] kadisha was prepared to put up some of [6:40] her own [6:42] money amazingly impossibly as the system [6:46] predicted laced up one despite not being [6:48] the favorite laed up get up the and [6:51] kadisha picked up her first winnings the [6:54] second race I won about 28 cleared race [6:57] three was at carile and my prediction [6:59] was for nonon Brook to win even though [7:01] it was an 18 to1 Outsider and therefore [7:04] the horse that was least likely to win [7:05] the [7:06] race me again still here well as you can [7:10] see I'm in The Bookies now car race I've [7:13] been told so I'm now going to write out [7:17] my slip fingers crossed Norton Brook 18 [7:23] to1 20 to win it better win okay very [7:28] anxious nervous you you know we're [7:30] excited cuz the last two races won oh [7:33] good God this better win oh my God and [7:36] they're off I've been confident in the [7:38] system so far so I'm going to remain [7:41] confident holding his paper very [7:44] tightly and nonon Brook keeps Galloping [7:47] on N BR Le oh my God and they come [7:50] inside V for long n Brook's been out in [7:53] front for a long time 2 miles west is [7:55] ging with every stride oh my God the [7:58] horse is catching up [8:00] oh my God the horse is catching out n [8:03] Brook 2 miles west it goes to the judge [8:05] n Brook has thank you the [8:10] system oh my God show me the money oh my [8:14] God show me the [8:16] money can you believe that on camera [8:20] this is kisha's third win in a row she's [8:23] just won [8:24] £360 from a 20 bet on an 18 to1 Outsider [8:28] that no one thought should win the race [8:32] my prediction for race four the 245 at [8:34] wolver Hampton was a horse called [8:37] formation baseb I was out in a bar with [8:40] my friends oh my God it's going to win [8:43] again I'm telling you I've got so much [8:44] confidence I'm still in disbelief on who [8:48] this person is this Anonymous person is [8:50] who's this system what is the system [8:52] formation will put favorite Packers on [8:54] good terms and Soto Jamie Spencer who [8:57] want a game moves two ahead of [9:00] the chance of four wins in a row being [9:01] predicted at random are already over [9:03] 1,000 to1 but the system guarantees a [9:06] win kadisha has now won four times in a [9:09] row and gained nearly £500 in cash I've [9:13] managed to convince her the system works [9:15] and that something extraordinary is [9:18] happening I just feel good when he needs [9:19] a money all the [9:22] time I can't believe what I've sayen [9:24] really I'm absolutely clast thought it [9:27] was pretty much impossible I'm now [9:28] curious to what he's come up [9:37] with part of what makes the system seem [9:39] so impossible is that it defies our [9:42] understanding of probability and [9:43] influence over future events and I'm [9:45] going to show you something now which is [9:47] impossible in exactly the same way and [9:49] that is to toss a coin fairly 10 times [9:51] in a row and have it come up heads every [9:54] time now we film this under control [9:57] conditions with multiple cameras that [9:58] won't cut away and it's a genuine coin [10:00] with heads on one side and Tails on the [10:02] other but I want you to watch this and [10:03] try and work out how it can be possible [10:06] because the key to understanding this is [10:08] the key to understanding the [10:11] system 10 heads in a row [10:16] [Music] [10:21] watch one that's [10:23] [Music] [10:27] heads two that's [10:33] heads three [10:40] heads heads that is [10:48] four heads [10:58] five [11:01] six four more to go and I'll [11:06] stop seven three [11:13] more [11:20] eight nine hits last [11:27] one 10 10 heads in a row thank you very [11:30] much [11:32] indeed I'll show you later on exactly [11:35] how that's possible but for now I need [11:37] to take what I'm doing with a coin and [11:39] apply that to the horse races so that I [11:41] can predict again and again the results [11:43] of the races and convince kadisha that [11:45] my system really [11:52] works now I'm not the first person to [11:54] try and come up with the horse racing [11:55] system it's been attempted in the past [11:57] but it has never ever worked my system [11:59] though is the first system that [12:02] guarantees a win over and over again and [12:05] later on I'm going to show you how it [12:07] wouldn't be easy for for a pter to make [12:10] a living out of horse [12:11] racing two gr classic Crocker on the [12:14] outside of corellian as they go towards [12:16] the [12:18] third there can't be a system you're [12:20] dealing with an animal it's not a [12:21] machine you can't set it if he comes out [12:23] of the stable the wrong side in the [12:25] morning he might not be winning his race [12:27] nation state jumped it better over the [12:29] Creek behind them in predicament and [12:31] swiftly on defense number five well if [12:33] somebody said to me they had a system [12:34] it's rubbish really there's only one [12:36] winner on the bookmaker the winner if [12:38] there was a winning system that every [12:40] there would be no bookmakers when we [12:42] come to work we come out with a load of [12:44] cigars when we were cuz we know at the [12:46] end of the day we're going to celebrate [12:47] with a nice cigar on the way home so all [12:49] you punters are going to lose all your [12:50] money that's what we come here with it's [12:52] just a bit key to go a bit faster they [12:54] gr to find a system that will change [12:55] your life is what we're talking about [12:57] that is definitely improbable and even [12:59] even if you think you found it having [13:00] the guts to back that to back that up [13:02] and having putting down large sums of [13:04] money to make it change your life is is [13:07] another step forward Al together [13:08] Imperial Commander over in front from [13:10] nation state in second place blundering [13:13] back in third was kin but he had tired [13:15] Imperial Commander the OD on favorite [13:17] comes up the hill storms up the hill [13:19] towards the Final Fence here and he [13:22] comes towards it jumps it well Tony [13:24] Evans an imperial Commander 10 L clear [13:27] of nation state in second place as de [13:29] Backle the third over the creek maybe [13:31] the one for that but Imperial Commander [13:32] having won here last month makes it two [13:35] out of two another winner here at [13:38] CH after four wins in a row it's time [13:41] for kadisha to experience the excitement [13:43] of a live horse race and once she gets [13:46] ready for that I want you to convince [13:47] the experts against their instincts that [13:50] maybe it is possible for a system to [13:51] really [13:54] [Music] [13:58] exist [14:03] [Music] [14:09] I arranged to meet some racing experts [14:11] to test out some of my ideas and [14:14] hopefully convince them that I could [14:16] indeed have a reliable system Phil Bell [14:19] is the manager of fontwell Park [14:21] racecourse Katie Stevens is the manager [14:24] of Herford race course James Pigman is a [14:27] journalist and tipster for the Racing [14:29] Post Jim Bo is a racehorse trainer and a [14:32] council member of the national trainers [14:42] [Music] [14:44] Federation can I get you to mix up those [14:47] four envelopes for me just give them a [14:48] mix and if you can stick these on [14:50] yourselves they peel off and you can put [14:51] the backings uh in your pocket if you [14:55] like thank you very much just put one of [14:56] those on you each if you grab one of [14:58] those as well thank you have a have an [15:01] envelope too you've all been interviewed [15:03] about uh this idea of there being a [15:05] system and uh whether it's possible to [15:07] predict the horses accurately uh and [15:10] predictably ev' all sort of said no it's [15:11] not it's not possible I would say that [15:14] it's massively unlikely but by no means [15:17] impossible to have a system that would [15:18] work a mathematician worked out the [15:21] probability of of having a system that [15:23] would accurately predict a winning horse [15:24] every time is uh it's [15:27] 1.48 [15:30] billion to one hugely unlikely as good [15:33] as impossible but not impossible that's [15:34] the point actually just massively [15:36] improbable so what I'm going to do um is [15:39] to ask you to sort of step into this [15:41] world of of people here there are 500 [15:44] polaroid pictures and these are just [15:45] members of the public and I'm going to [15:47] ask you to each go and select one of [15:48] these pictures it's just really [15:50] important as you do this um that it is a [15:52] random selection so please don't let [15:54] what the people look like you know how [15:56] attractive or unattractive they are [15:57] don't let any of that influence you some [15:59] of you know if any of the names happen [16:01] to remind you of people you know again [16:02] none of that is to influence you at all [16:04] these have to be random selections [16:05] that's very important at this point what [16:07] I would say is by doing this I am [16:09] showing you how my system works it'll [16:11] make more sense to you when you watch [16:12] the program back then that'll you'll [16:14] understand what I mean please have a [16:16] good look around at them all you see [16:17] they're all different take as long as [16:18] you like when you've got one just stand [16:19] by it and let me know that you've uh [16:22] chosen one but take as long as you like [16:23] if we' have a good wand around [16:27] first [16:29] [Music] [16:33] the pictures themselves have long [16:35] numbers on the back but don't worry [16:37] about those for now those will be uh [16:39] important later [16:45] on [16:48] time just put your hand that when you've [16:50] chosen one and okay great [16:55] lovely all got one excellent thank you [16:57] very much indeed on clip the pictures uh [17:01] just take them off the off the string [17:02] there's a couple of little pegs on each [17:05] one lovely so bringing a picture with [17:07] you what I want you to do not quite yet [17:09] what I tell you to is to come and stand [17:11] on one of these four black spots that [17:13] there are here on the uh on the ground [17:15] so if you come and do that for me now [17:16] any one of these [17:26] four excellent thank you very much [17:29] indeed so there are 500 pictures there [17:31] you've each got one you've come back and [17:33] stood on one of these spots each thus [17:35] putting yourself in a um in a different [17:37] order um and uh chosen large I mean it [17:41] is by chance it is random apart from the [17:43] fact that whoever would have probably [17:45] whoever was closest whoever took a [17:47] picture from closest would have had the [17:48] choice of anyone of four to stand on [17:50] probably the who was the last to come in [17:51] I was last yeah so you you didn't have [17:52] any choice at all the order you put [17:53] yourself if you look at your stickers is [17:55] 1 3 42 yes and you're happy that that is [17:59] you can just hold on to that for a [18:00] second for me you're happy that that is [18:01] a randomly seemingly unpredictable order [18:04] that you would that you would come and [18:05] stand in yes okay that just open up the [18:07] the red envelope that you saw it was [18:08] hanging there all along and just read [18:10] out what it says in [18:11] there the order you will stand in will [18:15] be [18:16] 1342 13 42 turn it around show the [18:19] camera 13 42 the order that you've that [18:21] you've ended up standing in excellent [18:24] thank you very much congratulations a [18:26] seemingly impossible thing to predict [18:27] but the point is it's not impossible [18:29] it's not it's it's highly improbable but [18:31] not impossible all right now you're All [18:33] Odds experts so what are the odds of me [18:36] predicting knowing in advance which [18:38] order you were going to stand in one of [18:40] you has a choice of four the next person [18:42] has a choice of three the next one two [18:43] the next one one the answer is 4 * 3 * 2 [18:45] * 1 which is uh 24 1 in 24 that's the [18:51] improbable odds of me knowing in advance [18:52] which order you were going to come and [18:53] stand it all right not impossible just [18:56] highly improbable okay next next uh if [19:00] you just take the pictures and just if [19:01] you turn them around and show the [19:02] cameras just so we can see uh who all [19:04] these people are let's get the names as [19:07] well Jenny Pringle Jenny Pringle thank [19:09] you you just show the camera Peter [19:11] Burgess Peter Burgess Carl Smith Carl [19:15] Smith Jane Baker Jane Baker excellent [19:19] okay so sorry so Jenny Pringle your your [19:23] full name is James pman pman so your [19:26] initials are JP JP and the initials of [19:28] this one woman are also JP are also JP [19:31] your name is Phil Bell Phil Bell and [19:34] show us Peter Burgess same initials PB [19:37] yes your initials do they match KS K [19:39] Stevens Katy Stevens and what's that [19:40] Carl Smith and your full name is Jim Bo [19:43] Jim Bole JB all right so your initials [19:47] match the initials of the photographs [19:48] that you picked and please have a look [19:50] around none of the other initials match [19:52] any of your names all right seemingly [19:54] impossible for this to happen but it's [19:56] not impossible it's just highly [19:58] improbable yeah what are the chances of [19:59] that happening there are 500 pictures so [20:02] the first person to take one has a [20:03] choice of 500 the next person doesn't [20:06] quite the next person only has a choice [20:07] of 499 because one of them just been [20:09] taken and the next person has a choice [20:12] of 498 and the next one 497 so that [20:16] number 500 * 499 * 498 * 497 gives you [20:20] the probability of you picking the [20:23] Polaroids the only Polaroids that have [20:25] the same initials that match yours and [20:28] the the envelopes at the beginning that [20:29] was you so you mix the envelopes uh you [20:31] handed them out you each took one if you [20:33] open them up take out what's inside in [20:35] fact wait you do yours first lob just so [20:36] we can get this on camera can you open [20:38] yours [20:40] up recognize the picture it's a picture [20:43] that matches the polar IDE that you took [20:44] that is Jenny was it Jenny Pringle Jenny [20:46] Pringle Jenny Pringle do you want to [20:47] take those out as well Phil hopefully [20:49] that match is the one that you've just [20:50] picked and Katie exent are you and [20:53] you'll do the same for me [20:55] Jim is it the same can you just hold [20:56] them up with the pictures as well just [20:58] fantastic you pick the ones that matchs [21:00] the envelopes that you mix and took at [21:02] the beginning again the chances of that [21:04] impossible seemingly impossible but the [21:06] same OD it's 500 * 499 * 48 * 497 which [21:10] means if you just keep a hold of your [21:11] Polaroids but just drop everything else [21:13] on the floor just buy the the spots [21:14] around just keep hold of the little [21:15] Polaroids the chances what are the [21:17] chances of all of that happening the [21:18] chances of me knowing where you were [21:20] going to stand which pictures you were [21:22] going to take the initials matching up [21:24] and matching what you picked at the [21:26] random envelopes at the beginning if you [21:27] come forward for me if you come back way [21:29] worth you put yourselves back into 1 two [21:31] 3 4 order so 1 two 3 4 and I'm going to [21:34] give you a uh let just give you a uh [21:36] calculator there the chances of all that [21:38] happening [21:40] is it's 24 times this here so if you do [21:44] I do 500 * 499 * 498 * 497 anybody [21:48] watching this at home with a computer or [21:49] a big calculator might want to do this [21:51] work out what that is for me and then [21:53] multiply that by 24 the answer I can [21:55] tell you is 148 2 [22:01] 065 doing this 9 28 0 0 0 is that the [22:06] correct number that's the correct number [22:08] that's the odds of all of those things [22:10] happening not impossible just massively [22:12] improbable one last thing if you just [22:14] hold the faces together so the camera [22:16] can see just hold the polar eyes up just [22:18] bring them together a little [22:20] bit excellent I did say there were [22:22] numbers on the back not to pay any [22:23] attention to them yet all right now I'm [22:25] going to turn these around have a look [22:26] at them on the back before I turn them [22:27] around [22:29] 1482 [22:32] 065 [22:33] 928 [22:35] 0 you pick the Polaroids that had the [22:38] numbers on the back that make up the [22:40] odds of all of that having happened and [22:43] that odd is 1.48 billion is the same [22:45] odds as this system existing in the [22:48] first place that allows me to break the [22:50] horses every time not impossible just [22:52] massively [22:53] improbable thank you very much something [22:55] for you to think about cheers thanks for [22:57] taking part thank J pleasure thank you [23:01] thank you very much indeed excellent I [23:03] should leave you with those numbers [23:06] CH mesmerized I can't believe what I've [23:09] seen really I'm absolutely flabbergasted [23:12] I was I was trying to turn the numbers [23:13] over in my head and work out as Darren [23:15] was going along what the probability was [23:17] I quickly got lost and the number just [23:19] got bigger and bigger and bigger you [23:21] know it's just astonish think if he [23:22] wants to come and work for the Racing [23:23] Post then I'm sure there'll be a job [23:25] offer for him I mean I think if if [23:26] horses are as predictable as as hum then [23:28] dar's onto an absolute winner my opinion [23:30] has changed I thought thought it was [23:32] pretty much impossible and I'm now [23:34] curious to know what he's come up with I [23:36] said initially that it depends what side [23:38] of the stable the horse comes out in the [23:40] morning but I think Darren would [23:42] probably [23:46] [Applause] [23:57] know [24:00] so by this point kadisha had received [24:03] four winning predictions from me now it [24:05] was time for her to experience the [24:06] thrill of a real race course for race [24:09] number [24:11] five for race five we now go to Newbery [24:14] for a high-profile and well attended [24:15] event some 11,000 people are watching it [24:18] from the stands on top of the millions [24:20] watching it on TV at home the name of [24:22] the winning horse has already been given [24:24] to kadisha 24 hours beforehand there's [24:27] no way that I or anyone else should be [24:29] able to predict the outcome I've come [24:31] today to new Brie at the races I've [24:34] never been to a race Force before this [24:36] is very much the first time for me today [24:39] I need to put down £50 which is like [24:41] breathtaking and it's going to be on [24:44] lively Joe Joe Lively so very exciting [24:48] very nervous and he just got a win so [24:50] here he is from my Racing cards new J [24:55] Lively 11 to2 gooda still has no idea [24:59] that the amazing winning predictions [25:01] have been coming from me the day before [25:03] race 5 the 205 AT Newbury I sent her my [25:06] prediction for a horse called Joe Lively [25:08] it's an outsider at 11 to2 but kadisha [25:11] is risking the biggest bet she's made so [25:13] far with 150 of her own money what she [25:17] doesn't know is that I'm also here and [25:19] after the race she'll be meeting me for [25:21] the first time there off the Yellow [25:23] Jacket of Joe Lively on the outside of [25:27] them [25:30] Joe Lively running a little bit fre [25:33] toward the outside for Joe [ __ ] in the [25:36] yellow and red jacket is just over [25:38] length behind the leader almost now the [25:40] first three quarters of a mile as they [25:43] come again left-handed and into the [25:44] state for the first time and head down [25:46] towards Defence number [25:51] four [25:52] royal [25:54] on this is the water jump oh and he's oh [25:58] my God it dropped like a donkey what did [26:01] I tell you what did I tell you oh my God [26:05] this is what I mean how can there [26:07] possibly be a [26:09] system how can you possibly know last on [26:13] the far side V and Milla tieri is a [26:18] therei knuckle Landing shot it's going [26:21] to win in third [26:24] place third place the rain started the [26:27] wind's getting short [26:29] how can it possibly catch [26:32] up thir [26:35] one very narrow lead here Jo is almost [26:38] level with him now they the and he's [26:41] down he he almost down there Joe is [26:46] Johnny and so Joe who was third at the [26:50] last and looking beat is going to be a [26:53] very fortunate winner of this Marshall's [26:55] perso 308 no is oh my God Jo Lively my [26:59] God the first one of them under pressure [27:03] has eventually ended up taking the [27:04] racers here's [27:10] Johnny oh my God I don't understand that [27:14] it was in third place all the [27:17] [Music] [27:21] way can you believe it that's not bad [27:24] begin's luck can you believe that [27:27] 85297 [27:30] five so after the fifth race and I won [27:33] again just under a grand and I'm over [27:35] the moon jumping for joy that I'm in you [27:37] know newb at a race course see in the [27:39] horse's [27:41] life I get taken to meet the person [27:44] that's been doing this whole thing the [27:46] anonymous person you know that's been [27:48] doing this system hi Kisha hello hello [27:52] and Darren and then I met Darren Brown [27:55] and honestly I was scared okay now I'm [27:58] scared I was confused thinking oh my God [28:02] all this time you know gutted I didn't [28:05] put on more money if I knew it was him [28:07] you know so I retired by now so I've [28:10] developed a system this is a foolproof [28:13] 100% system of winning at the races and [28:15] you've seen that it works and you've [28:16] seen that it works all the time even [28:18] this afternoon when it just looked like [28:20] there was no way that it could it did [28:22] look like that actually now so far you [28:24] have made some money you've been putting [28:26] 20 quid 50 Quid and then you put 150 [28:28] quid on today yeah but this is small [28:31] amounts compared to what I want you to [28:32] do next all right you've won five races [28:34] in a row yeah I'm going to give you the [28:36] name of the sixth winner all right and [28:38] then that'll be it oh my God so I want [28:41] you to put a lot of money on it all [28:42] right because I want this show to finish [28:44] with you winning a huge sum of money all [28:46] right so we're talking several thousands [28:48] if you can get that together I know the [28:49] minute I say that you're going to think [28:50] oh where am I going to get that money [28:51] from what happens if I lose you will not [28:54] lose because the system never fails okay [28:58] I just want to finish with you winning a [29:00] massive amount that's going to change [29:01] your life so okay it's so exciting also [29:04] if you do do this and if you commit to [29:05] it as I hope you will I will also tell [29:07] you I will explain to you how the system [29:09] works all right so even though it's the [29:10] last name I'll give you if you want to [29:12] use the system yourself you are welcome [29:14] to you may choose not to it's a lot of [29:15] work to make it work but I will tell you [29:17] I will teach you exactly how it works so [29:19] you'll have that too okay at the moment [29:21] it's only me that knows exactly how it [29:22] works you'll be the other person no [29:26] problem oh I don't know this is crazy [29:29] this is crazy and it's like how can you [29:31] know a system for this how can you so [29:33] now I'm going to tell you how the system [29:35] works how can kadisha be receiving [29:38] correct predictions for each race bear [29:40] in mind the predictions are made well in [29:41] advance and the races are quite genuine [29:44] how does it work well it all starts with [29:51] this that is a homeopathic remedy it's [29:54] called astralis Uh you take it for viral [29:57] infections but you could substitute that [29:59] for anything you might take for diabetes [30:01] or insomnia or indeed it could be a [30:03] healing Crystal or anything that uh [30:05] represents an alternative therapy of [30:07] your choice but you might have a viral [30:09] infection you might take astralis you [30:10] might then feel better and decide [30:12] therefore it must be an effective cure [30:13] the point is it works for you what more [30:16] proof could you need the trouble is that [30:18] when these things are tested properly [30:20] over thousands of people they are shown [30:22] to really have no effect whatsoever the [30:24] Trap that people fall into is to think [30:27] all the evidence I need is what I know [30:29] in my head and I feel in my heart and [30:31] what I just know to be true but there [30:33] isn't really evidence for it being true [30:35] that's just a statement about how much [30:36] you believe it and also how limiting [30:38] your own perspective can be now kadisha [30:41] believes in this system she's convinced [30:43] by it because she's only looking at it [30:45] from her own perspective and at home if [30:46] you haven't worked out how the system [30:48] works yet either it's because you are [30:49] also only seeing it from kadisha point [30:52] of view now it's time to force a [30:54] changeing perspective and to look at the [30:56] bigger picture and let's begin begin [30:58] with that coin [31:00] again 10 heads in a row [31:03] [Music] [31:05] watch to predict a run of 10 heads in a [31:07] row and then make it happen is hugely [31:10] unlikely the chance of it happening is [31:11] about 1 and 1,000 however if you flip a [31:14] coin thousands of times and record the [31:17] results somewhere along that line of [31:19] heads and tails a line of 10 heads is [31:21] actually very likely to [31:23] appear okay 10 heads in a [31:26] row [31:28] that's one to work out the system you [31:30] need to understand that we can only know [31:33] what comes from our own limited [31:35] experience and our experience can often [31:37] be very far from the [31:43] truth I can't see the bowl [31:46] [Music] [31:47] anymore here we go [31:52] 10 what you saw was the final minute of [31:56] what was an excruciating ly long day we [31:59] filmed for over 9 hours until eventually [32:03] a clear run of heads appeared nine heads [32:06] last one the impossible became [32:11] inevitable 10 10 heads in a row thank [32:13] you very much [32:15] inde you now have all the clues needed [32:18] to work out for yourself how the system [32:20] operates I shall fully explain it in a [32:22] few minutes I want you to ask yourself [32:25] if you haven't already can there really [32:28] be a system should she be doing this is [32:32] this an amazing opportunity for kadisha [32:36] or if she takes it is it a terrible [32:44] mistake I'm going to my dad's cuz I'm [32:47] going to go and get some cash to put [32:50] down on the final race my personal [32:53] situation is on broke so to find as much [32:57] money as you can is like insanity to put [32:59] down on a horse if I won loads of money [33:02] I'm worried I'd give my dad lots and [33:04] like take me and my brothers and my son [33:06] and my nephew on holiday we are here at [33:10] my daddy's house and I'm so so scared [33:14] now I'm really really scared [33:18] now this is my wonderful [33:22] father and he's going to be giving me [33:24] £1,000 today to put on on the final race [33:27] when I told my dad um about everything [33:30] he was just freaked out he was really [33:33] really freaked out he was worried [33:35] thinking oh my God am I going to be [33:36] doing what he's doing like gambling and [33:38] betting all my wages away first started [33:41] off on winning like 20 and £30 and then [33:44] it went up to [33:46] £360 and keeps increasing I'm trying to [33:49] get that every Saturday the most I've [33:51] ever put on a horse is £20 and I double [33:54] and that lost and when I lost I says [33:56] that's it never [33:58] again he was just like shocked you know [34:00] he didn't really believe that this was [34:02] to do of a TV [34:05] program thank you ,000 for my dad that's [34:10] a lot of money for [34:13] alls got the money from my dad ,000 [34:17] feeling very nervous but I'm ready to [34:20] roll come on [34:26] baby because of her faith in my system [34:30] kadisha has borrowed from her father and [34:32] since then has also been to a loan [34:34] company for more money she's now come to [34:36] Sandown Racecourse prepared to gamble [34:38] money she can't afford to lose once her [34:40] bet is placed I'm going to explain to [34:42] her and to you how this incredible [34:45] system really works it's been raining [34:48] steadily here for the last couple of [34:49] days the going is very heavy the [34:51] ground's heavy the favorite is likely to [34:53] be Moon Over Miami one last time out at [34:56] at chelham Blaze next in Patty Brennan [34:59] riding this horse for Nigel twist and [35:01] Davis the next one that that I quite [35:04] like is a horse called pancake goes well [35:06] on testing ground likes the mud mareda [35:09] trained by Paul Nichols top trainer any [35:11] one of those four could win [35:14] it when we last spoke to you I told you [35:17] you'd have to get quite a lot of money [35:19] together uh for today's race yes and I [35:22] understand you've done that yes I have [35:24] how much money have you have you got for [35:25] this bet £4,000 [35:28] £4,000 which is a lot of money it's a [35:31] lot of money it's a lot of money can you [35:33] tell me how you got that I know you I [35:35] know you ended up getting some from a um [35:37] alone company but yeah and my dad as [35:39] well I got some from my dad so that's [35:41] what makes it more scary for me cuz I [35:43] got some of my dad's morning and did you [35:44] tell your dad exactly what it was for [35:46] yes and that's what made it even worse [35:47] so your tip for today is horse number [35:49] two okay Moon Over Miami so watch out [35:52] for the green and white shirt I'm going [35:54] to go and pish a bit for you cuz I don't [35:55] want you seeing yet exactly how much [35:57] you're going to win and everything so [35:59] have you got a big envelope of cash on [36:00] you somewhere I have I haven't got an [36:02] envelope I got load of cash excellent [36:04] that's a lot of money it's [36:06] £4,000 um all right [36:11] okay you definitely right to do this [36:14] yeah absolutely I trust the Fister and [36:17] you I'll go do it before the queue gets [36:18] too long I'll soon in a bit [36:21] okay I'm really crapping it have I lost [36:25] the plot am I really here is really [36:28] going on taking ,000 from my dad makes [36:30] me feel very overwhelmed and more [36:36] anxious that's it that's [36:39] your that's your £4,000 this is worth a [36:43] lot of money please don't drop it or [36:46] lose [36:47] it you right deep breaths deep rests do [36:52] you want to know how it's [36:54] done yeah yeah [36:59] so a couple of months ago we got in [37:00] touch with you yeah remember and we gave [37:02] you that first tip yeah you weren't the [37:04] only person that we contacted there's [37:07] actually a very large group of people [37:08] almost 8,000 [37:12] people my name is [37:18] chrisa [37:21] sah the system works because kadisha is [37:24] not [37:25] alone when we contacted kadisha we also [37:28] contacted a huge number of other people [37:30] and gave them different tips the system [37:33] begins with [37:36] 7,776 people the people we contacted are [37:39] then randomly divided into six equal [37:42] groups a six horse race is then chosen [37:45] in our case it was the 920 at wolver [37:47] Hampton and each group of people is [37:48] allocated the name of a different horse [37:50] as the winner group one is given the [37:52] name of horse one group two is given the [37:54] name of horse two group three horse [37:56] three and so on could daa happens to be [37:58] in the group which has given the horse [38:00] named [38:01] BOS the race runs and of course only one [38:03] horse can win in our case it is BOS [38:06] apologies are then sent to the five [38:07] groups of people whose horses do not win [38:10] blaming a glitch in the system and they [38:12] disappear from the [38:13] process kadisha happens to be one of [38:16] those people in the successful Group [38:18] which has had a winning [38:19] horse now for race two this group is [38:22] again split randomly into another six [38:24] equal [38:25] groups so today's suay I'm waiting for [38:28] my latest tip well I'm on route to The [38:30] Bookies now so this will be my second [38:32] bet just found out uh we've got the next [38:35] bet through it's going to be the first [38:36] time I've ever been in our bookies in my [38:37] life and it's going to be the only [38:38] second time I've ever actually put a bet [38:41] on I'm in the book makers just at the [38:44] moment seeing um which horses are [38:46] running and where they're running from [38:47] placing my second bet now with the [38:50] system very confident again kadisha [38:53] happens to be in the winning group and [38:54] the other five groups with losing horses [38:56] are eliminated from the the process [38:58] exactly the same happens again for race [39:00] three the winning group from the [39:01] previous race is split into six equal [39:03] groups race three is the 220 at carile [39:06] and nton Brook wins giving us just 36 [39:09] people including kadisha who have had [39:11] three consecutive winners in a row in [39:14] race four those 36 are divided into six [39:17] groups of six and each is given the name [39:19] of a horse in another six- horse race in [39:21] our case the race is the 345 at Newbury [39:24] and formation wins reducing the number [39:26] of people from from 36 to just our [39:29] winning six people one of whom happens [39:31] to be kadisha say I do it again and [39:33] again and again and each time this group [39:35] is narrowing and narrowing and narrowing [39:36] and you're just happening to be in the [39:38] winning group each time as it goes [39:39] through now this continues to last week [39:42] you were not the only person there being [39:44] filmed thinking they were taking part in [39:45] this show we kept you all apart you're [39:47] all being filmed you all think you're [39:48] the only person being filmed for the [39:52] show it's night to two and it's [39:54] temperary I've just put on 150 my own [39:57] money on here's Johnny the horse I beted [40:00] on is called Nevada Royale none of you [40:02] can understand how you've had these [40:03] winning names all the way through but we [40:05] didn't know which one of you would win [40:07] on the side Ro Anda are gone there Bri [40:12] has just fallen off so I guess that [40:13] would be a lost [40:17] bit's he [40:23] down Johny and so Joely oh I don't [40:27] believe it I don't believe it didn't [40:31] work you win some you lose some oh my [40:33] car didn't [40:36] [Music] [40:44] win it's a pyramid which begins with [40:48] 7,776 people who are all sent anonymous [40:51] tips all but one of them are eliminated [40:54] as the system fails for them and we're [40:56] left with just one single random winner [40:59] who has had five consecutive wins so [41:02] last week at new you were that last [41:05] person the final person who just [41:06] happened to have those winning names all [41:08] the way through that was last week this [41:10] week it is just you and me and those [41:13] five [41:15] horses and there is no way of knowing [41:17] which horse is going to win four grand [41:20] four [41:21] grand oh my God what's what's going [41:24] through your head before we go [ __ ] [41:25] hell that's what's going through my head [41:28] [ __ ] hell oh my God [ __ ] hell [41:31] let's go we got to get through about St [41:33] oh my God I can't believe you done [41:37] that I feel Fain I feel sick oh there [41:41] they go oh [41:46] man Daisha has put up money she cannot [41:49] afford on a race that cannot be [41:54] predicted oh no if it doesn't [41:58] win I will faint here and then I'll cry [42:02] until I [42:06] die it's a I don't know I feel sick I [42:10] feel pain remember it's Moon Over Miami [42:13] in the green and white checks they're [42:15] off there they go mareda from [42:19] pancakes and he blazs back in third Moon [42:21] Over Miami the green and white jacket [42:23] probably a little bit behind [42:25] them heading down the side of the course [42:28] downhill [42:31] mareda since to Moon Over [42:38] Miami it's raining it [42:51] sleep unbelievable absolutely [42:55] unbelievable over Miami who's about [42:58] 7even minuts off the leader now as they [42:59] clear the next lap four grand is at the [43:05] back moonover Miami in fourth place at [43:08] the moment the other joint favorite with [43:10] the leader as they head towards the [43:12] water jump halfway down the back [43:18] straight he's not doing well is at the [43:20] [Music] [43:26] moment [43:28] and they got all slit oh my [43:39] God Moon Over Miami on the right there [43:42] the green and white [43:48] jacket oh my [43:52] God the green green and white at the end [43:55] back with the leaders it is adma who's [43:57] made all the running so far tackled in [44:00] second by mahogany Blaze on the right [44:01] back in third the big white face of B [44:03] pancake of Moon Over Miami now coming [44:06] under a bit of pressure in fourth [44:10] place oh my God but it's lo I don't [44:15] understand it should be F know Miami is [44:18] very disappointing looks beat as they [44:20] run around the final [44:26] turn [44:28] I put four land on the horse that's [44:31] F aradas holding on from Mahogany Blaze [44:34] they're both getting very leg weary in [44:35] the climb to the line oh [44:40] man but mareda with a fluid display of [44:44] jumping wins the Henry VII novices Chase [44:46] from Mahogany blaze in second pancake [44:48] back in third then Moon Over Miami he [44:51] didn't win that's four grand gone and [44:52] how not winning i w five times already [44:55] mareda won number three [44:57] well I'm still holding on to a ticket [44:59] that I have not even [45:02] won I could cry now I could cry but it's [45:05] only CU you're bloody recording why I [45:06] won't but I Ki it's like [45:11] [Music] [45:13] £4,000 I can't believe I've lost four [45:15] grand I I've been lucky all this time [45:18] and now it's all gone wrong I came in [45:20] broke and now I'm even more broke dad's [45:22] going to kill [45:25] me I know how [45:27] it was for you to get hold of that money [45:29] believe it do you really [45:32] think that I would just [45:34] gamble no this is I can't believe you [45:36] done that have you got the slip so I [45:40] told you moonover Miami would win yes [45:43] and it lost when I walked off to the [45:45] office to place the bet when I left you [45:48] when I went off to place the B I thought [45:50] to myself Moon Over Miami isn't going to [45:52] win this race and if you look at what I [45:56] actually play the best [45:58] on that's 4,000 to win on Mara on [46:04] mareda which means you're a [46:13] guru it's 13 Grand that you've just [46:18] won oh myad I love you that's not right [46:22] doing that come on let's go get your [46:24] cash before the next race [46:31] oh my [46:33] [Applause] [46:34] God I did hate him a minute ago I did I [46:37] hated you I was like oh my [46:40] God I don't know what to do I don't know [46:43] I don't know it's fantastic cuz I'm debt [46:47] free I'm debt free for the first time in [46:49] gone 30 [46:51] [Music] [46:55] years [46:58] [Music]