地缘风险与关税恐慌引发全球资本撤离英美 新加坡私人金库接管现货白银

地缘与关税风险促资本撤离英美 新加坡私人金库接管现货白银 美联储信用周期走向终结与中东氦气供应链断裂引发恶性滞胀危机，逼迫全球富豪通过配置实物金银构建无对手方风险的财富备份。 本期节目深入探秘了存放15亿美元金银的新加坡私人金库The Reserve，详细展示了其惊人的地面承重、UL级防线以及“自毁式”重锁等极致安防工程。金库创始人基于“大周期论”指出，当前全球正处于美债失控、地缘政治重置等信用崩溃的临界点，1970年代的恶性滞胀阴魂重现。在这种由于中东冲突引发氦气断供、进而重创芯片和全球供应链的宏观通胀链条中，实物金银因“零对手方风险”正吸引全球资本集体“用脚投票”流向新加坡。面对传统西方金融中心的纸黄金黑幕与白银供需的严重赤字，构建属于自己的实物财富备用方案（Plan B）已成为全球高净值人群跨越下行周期的共识。 新加坡的The Reserve存放着15亿美元的实物金银，核心地面承重达90千牛/平方米，并配备UL Class 2级别的自毁式重锁防线与30吨六面体钢甲笼，以抵御物理破拆。 (0:00) 针对贵金属行业“纸黄金超发”问题，该金库采用完全断网与唯一序列号机制确保实物确权，支持客户随时进行实物交割。 (5:00) 受中东局势及通胀滞胀预期影响，现货金价突破每盎司4,800美元，The Reserve新增存储订单暴增88%且90%来自海外，实物资产零对手方风险优势凸显。 (15:00) 中东氦气供应链受损重创先进制程芯片，叠加粮食与能源通胀，推动全球资本从面临交割与信用困境的西方金融中心流向保持中立且财政稳健的新加坡。 (20:00) 白银因光伏与工业刚需面临长期结构性供需赤字，面对西方体系动荡，金库创始人呼吁通过实物资产配置践行“Plan B”防御哲学。 (25:00)

面对地缘冲突升级、债务膨胀与欧美传统金融体系的信任动摇，全球资本正加速将流动性转向实物贵金属，推动新加坡等中立离岸节点成为核心避险仓位。 实物金库的极限制衡与离线确权 (0:00) 坐落于新加坡樟宜机场旁的大型私人金库The Reserve内部存放着总值达15亿美元的实物黄金与白银。为应对极端物理冲击与暴力破拆，白银库地面承重达90千牛/平方米（约每平方米承重9.5吨），设计最高白银储备容量达10,000吨；黄金库则采用重达30吨的六面体钢甲笼结构，并配备装有特种玻璃的“一次性自毁式”重锁保护装置（Glass Relocker），受损时内部销钉会瞬间锁死，只能由专业厂商切割更换。 针对传统金融机构“纸黄金超发”（一根实物金条可能对应多份纸面所有权凭证）的行业信任危机，该金库采取完全断网（Offline）管理客户所有权数据。每块标准交割银条及1公斤金条均对应唯一序列号，散装小金条则以一次性防伪密封袋封存，支持客户随时指令提取实体资产，以消除对银行信用的依赖。 帝国周期转向与纸面资产的对手方风险 (15:00) 金库创始人格雷格森基于达利欧的大周期论指出，以美元为主导的战后信用周期正走向终结，不可持续的美国债务规模、地缘政治重置以及主权国内部的贫富分化构成了推动系统重置的三大不可逆支柱。随着海湾局势紧张波及迪拜等新兴财富中心，现货金价突破每盎司4,800美元，The Reserve的实物存储订单同比增长88%，其中90%的新增订单直接来自新加坡境外。 格雷格森认为，相较于比特币等尚未被主权央行接纳为货币信用背书的资产，实物黄金的核心优势在于“零对手方风险”（No Counterparty Risk）。当法币体系或银行清算网络遭遇系统性故障时，实物贵金属不依赖任何机构承诺。数据显示，该金库70%的实物贵金属客户在过去4.2年内从未进行过卖出或提现，表明这批跨国资金主要是为了应对长周期体制崩溃的底牌，而非投机博弈。 滞胀预期与白银实物供需挤兑 (20:00) 格雷格森警告，当前供应链通胀正显现出类似1970年代的滞胀特征。中东冲突破坏了卡塔尔的关键氦气设施，该设施此前承担了台积电与三星制造尖端芯片超过70%的氦气供应，修复预计需耗时两到三年；加之化肥、能源受阻及美国加征关税政策，多重因素正沿产业链推升全球粮食与制成品成本。 与黄金相比，白银的实物供需失衡更为严峻。白银在光伏面板与CPU制造中具不可替代性且缺乏需求弹性，但作为伴生矿，其开采供应同样缺乏弹性。过去6年全球白银连年出现平均达总消耗量20%的供需赤字（年赤字约2亿盎司），而伦敦金银市场协会（LBMA）的自由流通白银仅剩约2亿盎司。因市场对关税及现货断供的担忧，2025年10月曾出现大量金银被紧急调运往美国本土，导致英国央行等传统交割机构陷入现货挤兑与溢价飙升，暴露了杠杆抛售纸白银以压低盘面价格的市场操纵裂痕。 新加坡的信任中立与Plan B避险逻辑 (30:00) 伴随欧美传统金融机构暴露出脆弱性（如2023年瑞士信贷危机），全球实物贵金属持续流向亚洲。目前仅The Reserve一家金库储存的白银就达600吨。格雷格森总结指出，新加坡之所以成为黄金避风港，依赖于其三大根基：政府财政富足无须没收资产、国家经济严重依赖外来投资者信任，以及具备相对庞大的自卫国防预算与中立外交立场。 格雷格森认为，西方累积的养老金赤字、基建老化等结构性矛盾正促使资本践行海豹突击队“Two is one, one is none”（双重备份等于安全）的信条。即使在极端断网或国际结算系统冻结的情景下，投资者仍可依托自提、质押或加密中介完成实物资产变现，建立跨越周期的替代性方案（Plan B）。 节目指出，格雷格森对黄金与白银的极端看多立场与其作为金库运营商的商业利益直接绑定，受众需理性辨别其宏观预言；但在全球不确定性持续加剧的背景下，审视纸面信用资产的潜在风险并进行分散化多资产配置，已成为高净值资本管理中的关键课题。

[0:00] Lionel Tay: 当员工在内部工作时，每一次开启核心区域都需要两名来自不同管理层级的人员到场。这就是为什么需要设立第二层防御门，以防止外界人员强行尾随强入。 [5:00] Lionel Tay: 不仅如此，大门内部还填充了特殊的复合防御材质。即使盗贼用高性能钻头勉强钻透了一个孔，当他们试图拔出钻头时，内部流动的防御材料会瞬间填充并将孔洞重新覆盖。他们必须再花上一个小时重新开始钻孔。 [40:00] 如果你只带了一件关键装备，一旦它损坏，你就会陷入一无所有的绝境；而如果你准备了两个，其中一个坏了，你依然有备用方案可以继续战斗。

[0:00] I know where the gold and gold are safe. Because it's heavy. One, two, three. No way! Oh my god! I should be able to hold it. 30 kg of the ring条 is about $7,000. Don't look at it as a big one. I need more exercise. And in the other one, the ring条 is also very heavy. Still very heavy. I can do the weight lifting with the most expensive weight lifting. And a 12.5kg of this one, is about 200,000 euros. And the gold and the gold is bigger than the gold. If it's the size of the gold, the gold is about 60kg. So I think the gold is not real. Even if you've overcome a lot of safety, this game is too heavy, and you can't go away. Hello, everyone. Welcome to Grig谷101. I'm Tren Hsien. So this is my first time to look at the Singapore of the Reserve Reserve's small part. Here we are actually just to look at why the market market market has started to catch the traditional gold and gold The market market is not too much and Singapore market market market market market为什么大家又开始囤贵金属了我们专访了The Reserve的创始人兼CEO Bagger GregersonPrecious metals do best in a crisisWe had a 300-400% increase this year over last yearAnd we expect to be double-inset again this yearElectronics having to grow upFood going upElectricity going up这个视频就跟我一起走进位于新加坡的这座全球最大私人金库也聊聊黄金白银等费金属全球资产欠移以及资本都在压住一个如何的未来首先我想先带大家来看看The Reserve的构造这是在新加坡张仪机场旁的一栋六层楼大厦它看起来平平无奇但是里面存放着15亿美元的黄金和白银而这个全球最大私人金库之一的缔造者 Gregerson Bullion Bullion建一座实物资产的诺亚方舟我们在设计2,000含到2,500含先来带大家看看银库我们从前台登记到进入银库的整个过程经历过了恩善门和身份的认证不愧是全世界最难入侵的地方之一这里有500个闭路摄像头人员陷阱门激光探测振动传感器动作传感器还有辅助警察助手等等这是公共银库它是团成2,5含的银库它是一名的UR1道所以它可以使用途律途律在最少30分之间所以每次我们进入一个散散的地方它需要两人从一个家庭的房子去开门 Oh okay there another layer Yes So sometimes because when one of our staffs are actually working inside because it requires two person that why there is actually one more door as a second layer of defense to prevent people from coming in. Oh, I see. Okay, so right now I'll require my click. Alright, let's go. Oh wow. The metals cap over here are only in silver. That is a requirement from the insurance. So at our main silver, we are capable of storing up to 10,000 tons of silver. Right now, you can see over here the capacity is approximately 30% of it. So what you can see over here, we actually segregate the different types of metals. So for these are all silver coins. And you can see this is the biggest form of silver. It's called the LBMA Good Delivery Bar. It weighs approximately 1000 ounces. It's about 30 to 31 kilos. Every individual pieces are all owned by an individual client. Some might be owned by one client, but every piece, there's an ownership. Every piece of bar is individually recorded. [5:00] 在安全房间我们知道在哪里的房间所有材料的资料都被保留这意味着完全没有办法能够接到网友的资料因为资料是非常贵的财富整个营库非常的震撼脚底是32米深的地基向上看是一个32米高的巨型库房灯光从巨大的架子上投射下来每一个架子上都整齐码放着银条这栋楼的前身是一座自动化的电子元件工厂Burgerson用4年的时间把它打造成了一个工程奇迹这建议如何是特别的你能保证它是安全的这是一个特别建议1997年由电脑工业当时他们用了电脑工具他们在2017-2018年移动这建议其实是在售价是$28 美元,但我们实际上可以证据它在$10 美元的 discount那是个非常好价格在三年之后刘优独播剧场是个非常好价格而是什么让我们建立的是个增长的增长因为你所说,金和金和金和金和金和金很重的增长所以,不过,它不是金的增长但你需要多少钱 The spices building was the floor loading because, as you mentioned, gold and silver are very heavy. And so oftentimes it's not the amount of space you need. But how much weight can you put on the ground before it starts cracking? A normal car park, for example, is two kilonewtons in floor loading. Our floor in our main area is 90 kilonewtons. So we are 45 times stronger than a car park. And because of that, I can put about 9.5 tons of weight in one square meter. And so I can stack my silver 12 meters high. And that means that I'm very, very efficient compared to most other places. And that gives us a 10,000 ton storage capacity. Over here, there's no air conditioning. Yeah, it's very hot here, to be sure. Thanks for wearing the jacket for us. I mean, probably I'm really very used to the working environment over here. because to air condition this whole place of 32 meters requires a lot of air conditioning and power so it's actually not a very economical thing for the company to actually do it and in fact if a silver is being exposed very long under aircon it will actually oxidize even faster some of the bars already showing the blackness yes because this is a natural reaction of a silver when it comes in contact with the atmosphere But gold is okay. Yes, gold will never change color. But it is very normal because it's not a good thing.而对于金库来说因为黄金密度更大价值更高并且不需要像银库这么大的空间但是安全性的要求会更高要达到保险公司要求的UL Class 2金库标准也就是能够将入侵者阻挡一个小时这里,我们要入的是,这位是个选择是个选择也,一个选择,选择选择这个能支援逐越来自离开的选择所以,同样的事情,我们要入一个叙定的地方我会有自己的配件在这里我成员会其实一个奖牌的招待OK这个门是较小的但是它是一半的一半哦哇是是它很重的甚至是要去押?不,你可以尝试哦,它是OK它是OK但是它是很难以为一半的一半一半的一半是如果你看到的电视为什么会开门很轻松不是因为它是重的但是因为有一个安全的安全的 So if you see in the movies why sometimes they open the door very slowly it's not because it's heavy but because there is a security measure inside okay we cannot break it because otherwise the door will be locked shut permanently yes so this door is a one-time disposable door which means once it is permanently locked we cannot go in we have to wait for the certified contractor to actually come down remove the door and replace the door only then business will continue. Oh, I see. So what kind of circumstance will make the door locked? Round pin? So if let's say today somebody tries to break in, they can use the best tools, best drilling tools. They start to drill. Firstly, of course, it will actually trigger our security alarm sensors. Alright, and then once they start drilling, there's a very thin glass, it will break. The door will permanently lock shut. Oh, okay. And today, if they successfully even drill a hole, alright, the moment when they pull out their drill bit, the hole will be covered and then they will have to spend another hour drilling. Oh, the hole will be covered. [10:00] Yes, there are some materials inside. Okay, this is a security feature that it will just back the silver. Oh, I see, I see, I see. Interesting, wow. Very expensive door, I guess. Oh, so this is a gold wall? Yes. I thought it's something similar to the silver wall, no? So you can see the silver wall is at least more than 10 times bigger than gold. Yeah. Because gold is actually so small. the bigger piece is also up to 400 ounce which is about 12 and a half kilos yes okay and uh most retail clients what they purchase is up to one kg gold bar okay so probably we can show you something over here so because gold is not in a very big form we actually created a pigeon holes like that okay to efficiently store them i see so one box can probably take up to 16 kg worth of gold and platinum. And then over here they are all manually being placed inside and record as well. So as I mentioned all data over here are actually all offline. I see Yes Okay So if you are wondering why per box we are only putting 16 kilos because firstly there is no machinery It all hand carried by us We have to set a safety guideline that will not endanger the stuff Imagine if it's putting up here, it's a 30 kilo box and it's going to be very dangerous. How can you guarantee the security for this room? This gold vault, okay, you can see it's actually just aesthetically very nice. but if you strip down everything, you can actually see it's actually a six-sided panel and they are all pieced individually. So these individual panels, they are all locking individual panels which prevents people from putting in a spy cam. And secondly, each panel, they all have to go through a certain strict requirement to actually obtain this UL class 2 security writing which means there are some materials being used. It has to meet the requirements and they will be tested before the certification issued to them. I see, I see. Yes. So this is actually a six-sided cage over here. Okay. Yes. Ceiling, the floor and four-sided walls. The panels must be very heavy, right? I guess. Yes. So the entire structure of this gold vault alone it weighs about 30 tons 30 tons Yes And the metals that can be stored in this vault over here is up to 60 tons Okay Wow带大家看了金库和银库还有配套的安全措施是不是觉得大开眼界但是对于The Reserve这样的管理者来说比钢筋混泥土更重要的是信任机制那么创始人Gragerson就说这个行业里面最大的问题不是盗窃而是一根金票被卖给了五个客户我们也有测试的我们也有测试的测试我们也有很好的保证我们只能够保证所以我们是最重要的事情我们做到的当这个销子是有优点你可以到达到它你可以说我想看我的五码 You basically bring the five bars down show you that here you can take delivery of it and it essentially a Boolean So the bigger gold bars they have a serial number So you buy the bar by serial numbers Some of the smaller bars, they don't have one, but we put it in a tempered evident bag with a serial number, and then you buy the serial number associated with it. But you always have a specific item. And that's very important because if you don't have that, then you don't know maybe this bar has been sold to five different clients. How do you know? Because that's something that happens a lot in the industry. If people don't check, say, small print, they think they own something, when in reality, it's a liability. And the seller can sell it many times over. And so we wanted to make sure that that can never happen Because in times of crisis You might have an ugly surprise And so what is it? Well, that we can see the gold and gold We'll talk about these gold gold资产 behind Some of the new new things So one very basic question is Why is the gold gold in 2025 and 2026? The gold gold is the largest gold gold in the world The gold gold is the largest gold gold This is the伊朗 of the rocket From the Liban and the Haribo塔 on the water even even to the 7th century this makes the DBA [15:00] 以及打造成中东安全天堂的努力功亏一篑一度泛船酒店成为全球奢华代名词棕立岛上一栋接一栋的豪宅在沙漠里拔地而起还有自由港 币圈圣地等等这些标签甚至我有朋友想在迪拜投资房产但是金融中心从来不只是一堆高楼大厦和豪华酒店它的底层是一个简单的问题就是在这片土地上的财富到底安不安全当伊朗和以色列的对抗一次次升级当导弹和无人机的射程把整个海湾都纳入打击范围当美国也被卷入这些冲突当中全球的家族办公室无论是老钱还是新贵都在重新审视自己的资产分布这就引出了一个更大的问题在2026年的这个时点什么才是真正的安全而这些资本又回到了传统避险资产黄金等贵金属的身上截至我们写稿的时候现货黄金价格已经突破美扬司4800美元同时The Reserve的存储订单同比激增88%贵金属销售飙升200%90%的新订单来自于新加坡以外的地区Gregerson给出了一个宏大的历史框架来解释这一切这是一个典型的Videlio式的帝国周期论我们在最近pecially gold, and also silver recently. Why is that? What's the reason behind it? The key reason is uncertainty. Throughout history, great powers change. Every 80 to 100 years, we are going, let's say, from the French Empire, we went to the British Empire with the pound sterling, then the pink comes to the United States with the US dollar. And every 100 years, you sort of have a switch. And we believe that we are now at that stage where we are switching to something else because of three primary reasons. The amount of debt the United States has is becoming completely unsustainable and there's no clear answer on how to pay for all these expenses. You have more geopolitical conflicts that are happening now and you have internal disruptions within the countries. And these three factors are usually the type of things which are precursors to a reset of the system. And in times like this, people choose to go to physical gold and silver because there's no counterparty risk. If the US dollar or the euro or another currency were to collapse, gold will still be valuable. And you don't have to rely on a bank or somebody else for it to be valuable because you can own it. And so you don't have jurisdictional risk.你不必要靠近一个网站或别人为它是值得的因为你能赢所以你没有规则的危险你没有几个危险你没有几个危险你没有几个危险它是最好的东西当中有一个危险Gregerson的框架的三个支柱很清晰美国债务不可持续地缘重置冲突加剧还有各国内部的秩序逐渐适合而在这种潜在的系统重置前黄金和白银因为没有对手方风险成为了最后的信任锚点在1981年,16%的所有金融资本在美国的英国内是在金融金融资本。现在是1%的,所以我们有很长时间去走,而且金融资本做得最好在一个危机。他们做得最好在一种负责。因为,特别是在中央的中央,我们有营业营业营业, best in a crisis. They do best when you have a stagflation. And because especially what's happening now in the Middle East, we're having energy disruptions, we're having food disruptions because one third of all fertilizer is coming from the Middle East. And most of the helium that is used to produce semiconductors in Taiwan and in South Korea is coming from that area. So all of these products are going to go up in price because it will be less and less of them, which will cause inflation to go up. As inflation goes up and growth isn't there, you're going to have stifflation. And so we are entering in a situation which is similar to the 1970s. Ray Dalio also mentioned that. And that means that it's probably going to be a very interesting time for precious metals. And I think right now it's still a very small number of people which are actually buying physical and understand these ideas. But that is increasing quickly. And so we had a 300%, 400% increase, for example, this year or last year. and we expect to be double set again since here 1981, the American's all 16% were placed in the gold, and gold and gold now the number is not 1% if the history is really being重 the market market is just starting Burgers said that the current state of the country's climate crisis is the impact of the first half this is the one that has been a lot of people to think about the flow of the economy [20:00] The first thing about the Chinese is that the Chinese is producing 1.3% of the carbon dioxide and 1.3% of the carbon dioxide. majority of the helium from Qatar. Taiwan is getting over 70% from Qatar from one facility. And that facility was damaged recently. So there's almost no helium coming out from Qatar anymore. And this might be the situation for the next two or three years, because Qatar said this might take two or three years to fix. If 70% of the helium supply for Taiwan is not there, where are all the Nvidia ships built? It's all coming from Taiwan. And Taiwan is going to have to compete with South Korea like Samsung, are we going to use this helium to make Nvidia chips in Taiwan or are we going to use it to make Samsung phones? They are going to fight over this helium. No matter what there going to be a lot less chips being made which means the price has to go up So now we have electronics having to go up we have food going up we have electricity going up and we have gasoline going up and gas going up. You're going to have stagflation. And then you have Trump with the tariffs on top of it, and all the other trade imbalances and problems we're having. So it's very clear over the next five to ten years, we are going to feel the after effects of the...石油涨 天然气涨 化肥涨 粮食涨 氦气断供 芯片涨 电子产品涨再加上特朗普的关税叠加效应这已经远不是一两个行业的问题了而变成了一条从中东地缘冲突延伸到了全球消费者钱包的完整通胀链条 Gregson 的结论很明确未来5-10年世界正在进入类似1970年代的滞涨期这个时期显著特点就是股票不行 债券不行 房地产不行 The only show of the asset is the stock market. Let's look at the stock market. In 1971-1982, the gold market from 35 USD to 1980. The price of 850 USD. But in a 5-bit, even today, people will buy stock market? Yes, definitely. Because I think people used to call Bitcoin the digital gold But Bitcoin has certain advantages But at the end of the day when you go into a big crisis countries will go back to gold to back the currency So we'll not back it with Bitcoin. Central banks are buying gold in order to have reserves to be able to trade with each other. Gold is still going to be that foundational sort of safe heaven, which is sort of common sense for everybody. And now it's just a question of how many people are starting to become distrustful. of the testing system. And once they start become distrustful and they start researching into it, they realize that it doesn't make sense to buy a financial product that is based on gold. You don't want gold exposure or price exposure. You want to own the physical. And there's people from all walks of life right now which are starting to understand this and coming into this market. That Gregerson said that the customers usually are likely to have a long-term gold. The 70% of customers have never been out of the gold. The market has been around 4.2 years, so this is not a short-term investment, but it is a long-term investment. A new problem is that the gold-eathing market has been around 4.2 years. Why are the people who have been turning to Singapore In 2025 the world market market is a huge part of the world特朗普威胁对进口商品加征高额关税一度不明确黄金和白银是否在争饰的范围内于是所有人都开始疯狂了从伦多往美国搬运15黄金英格兰银行的金库连续数周无法正常交割但是这场混乱暴露的不只是物流问题但还揭开了全球黄金市场最大的秘密就是绝大部分交易都是纸黄金背后并没有足够的食物去支撑 There's a lot going on here First of all, it's not that the Bank of England didn't have the gold It just takes a certain amount to get it out Right, that people were panicking People were panicking, but you have to understand why they're panicking They were panicking because in the United States the institutions, they don't have much gold他们主要有纸币的纸币这些纸币的纸币四次每年都要做出售所以在疫情中一些银行的银行不得出售因为他们没有太多金钱所以他们没有得出售在疫情中的银行不成功所以他们没有得出售他们有得出售金在美国 [25:00] gets their delivery requirements. And in some cases, they had to pay $100 above spot. They lost millions and millions of dollars because they couldn't get the gold out of London. Now, when Trump said, we are going to put tariffs up, and it wasn't very clear on what, and it wasn't clear whether gold and silver would have tariffs. Well, he was talking about 30% tariffs or something like this. If you take a gold bar, and it's $3,000 per ounce, and you have to pay $1,000 to get it in. That's a lot of money. And the bank in the U.S. has to do a delivery without any tariffs. That's a huge problem. So everybody starts rushing and saying, I need to get my gold from London to the United States just in case we're going to have tariffs on both gold and silver. And so a lot of gold rushed over to the U.S. in preparation for that. And essentially that's what happened. And that was one of the reasons why we had the silver crash in the silver shortages. in England in October 2025, because so much silver went to the US, said now there wasn't enough in London. And that why in October they had to rush the silver back to London in order to not default You can imagine that the world largest exchange exchange这个小插曲其实是整个纸黄金问题的一次重要暴露而这条裂缝不止出现在黄金市场白银市场的纸面操纵更加的出目进行这是因为奖金和锁票是在市场的平板市场这些平板市场不一直影响的肆股费性质量在利益和锁票的时候,在这选择是在显森期的情况下并没有用到主要购买的充满购买的购买所以购买了小购买的购买,不过比较大购买的购买的购买很多购买的薄买得出自从从铀以中的银行可以返回到达森林的购买的购买以赢购买的购买但每年每年有少少的金融所以,一段时间通过,市场上的需要升,以为能够升,但这些市场不断动会不会降到载动,但它们可以升起来, So these are some of the factors which recently have been pushing precious metals up And then we had this big crash The big crash in the case of silver for example was all driven by paper sales This was not people selling physical silver. It was people selling leveraged shorts positions into future contracts. And it's my understanding they sold something like one and a half years of silver mining production without providing any real silver. So the price of silver ended up falling, but we couldn't get any physical silver because of just paper pushing it down. And so you end up with shortages. And these shortages then ultimately cause the premium of silver to go up. And ultimately, they're going to cause the price of silver going up again because if there's not enough physical, prices have to go up. 价格被打下去了,但是市场上根本买不到食物白银。 那这就是纸市场操纵食物价格的典型案例。 而从供给端来看,白银的问题比黄金更加的严峻。 You take something like solar panels you need silver because if you were to use copper it would start to rust oxidize And the solar panel might only last for 10 or 12 years but if you use silver you can use it for 25 years and that why you cannot remove silver you can reduce silver but you always have to have it similar story if you make a cpu and you know you need some of that silver whether the silver is going to cost you five cents or 50 cents or even five dollars you still need to use that silver so the demand for silver is inelastic meaning even if the price go up, you still need to get that silver. At the same time, the supply of silver is also inelastic because there are almost no silver mines out there. Most silver is produced as a byproduct of nickel, of tin, and other metals like this. And if the price goes up, it takes 5 to 10 to 12 years for new production to come online. And so it's very hard to increase that production. As a matter of fact, over the last six years, we had deficits every year. And the deficits can be very high. We had an average of 20% of all silver used was deficit. The supply was around 1 billion ounces. Deficit was 200 million ounces, which means 20%. Now, if you go back to the LBMA system, LBMA system only has 600 million ounces roughly. So they have about three years of deficits. Of that amount, a lot of it is already taken by private owners, which means there's only about 200 million of free floating. That is the silver. [30:00] 而全球三大交易所的食物库存正在同步枯减The Reserve一家私人金库存储的白银有600吨比上海黄金交易所的全部白银库存还多这说明全球系统里面的食物金属正在迅速的流失在这样的背景之下资金正在用脚投票从伦敦和苏黎市流向新加坡那么金库管理人员就告诉我积增的流入新加坡的实体白银和黄金需求把所有工作人员都累坏了那是一番狂的狂状多少人有在那一段时间的狂状在那一段时间的狂状我们只有七人七人狂状那是一段时间的狂状那是很多人的狂状一段时间的狂状那是狂状 Seven staff who can carry the silver bar? Yes. Wow, that's a lot of exercise for each one of you that day. It's crazy. We just pushed through the thing. The traditional Chinese financial center's trust is being attacked. Except for London's problems,瑞士 in 2023 also got a problem.瑞士信贷 has hit a危机, and UBS has been sent to the UBS. Did you see clients who have been storing gold in Zurich decide to move it to Singapore? We did not see a big change, because at the end of the day, Credit Suisse was acquired by UBS, so most people did not lose money in all of this. But we have seen a gradual shift where I think people which are having most of their wealth in Switzerland might say, maybe I shouldn't keep it all in Switzerland. And also Switzerland tends to be quite expensive. So I think there is a low flow out of Switzerland, but that's not anything drastic. Switzerland, I think, still has a relatively strong currency and a strong position. So we don't see an exodus out But there is some flow 瑞幸的落幕没有引发恐慌性的撤离 但是它开始让越来越多的人开始思考 也许不应该把所有的鸡蛋放在一个篮子里面 而Gregerson给出了新加坡之所以成为替代选项的三个根本原因 So why Singapore? So geopolitically, what makes Singapore interesting, there's three primary reasons. Singapore is very wealthy. If you're going to store your gold in times of crisis, you don't want to store it with a government which is heavily in debt. The next point is, all that wealth that Singapore has, has come by building confidence with foreign investors. And these foreign investors brought some money in and so on and so on. Now, if Singapore were to nationalize gold, or betrays that confidence in some way, it's economics worse than it. The third factor is Singapore is neutral. Singapore does not really have any big enemies. And it is well defended. Singapore is considered a medium-sized army. We can raise an army of 420,000 on our military budget. It's three times that of Malaysia. It is not a city-state like Monaco, which doesn't have much defense. It's actually well defended. And so if you want to store your gold for the next 10, 20 years in one place, Singapore is one of the best places. And it is one of the few countries which will be trusted both by China and by the United States And these are all good reasons for Singapore A lot of the security of the world is not limited to its own It is limited to the country's government's legal environment and the stability of the world's work and the ability to keep the power of the world And the question is, if it really falls off For example, the financial sy如果真的天塌了比如说银行系统冻结SWIFT被切断一些国家比如说美国政府举个例子宣布黄金国有化那么一个身在德国的客户怎么把存在新加坡的黄金变成着急要用的钱呢如果有一个货币的情况,如果有一个货币的情况,或是一个货币的情况,或者是一个货币的货币,怎么能货币的货币?货币或货币是货币,而不会失去货币的货币,如果有货币是货币的货币。如果有货币,你需要货币,而你的货币是货币,如何得到货币?可能会有过于新法会动作如果这个贷款又可用用贷款如果美国的贷款有状态你不可以用当你没有资稀果的贷款你也可以用当贷款某些贷款或许就是可以用这个贷款的话需要用到一个贷款还是USDT这种贷款这是不同的选择因为到了重要的事情过于此外面公关,赠金之强它们会永远的价值 [35:00] more valuable in a crisis because people don't trust other things. So finding a way on how to transfer some of that value, worst case with something like Bitcoin, but it depends on the receiver. If Bitcoin is an option, but does the receiver, the client, actually use a Bitcoin? If it sends to Germany, can you use a Bitcoin to give to somebody else? These basically are some of the questions, but essentially because the fiscal gold is separate from all of this, any of these options that are available at that point, you know, could be used. Or the client could fly here, takes a gold himself. Gregerson told me he spent 16 years to prepare for the financial崩溃. This is a story of a crazy-fucked story. But if the financial崩溃 didn't happen, the world's development will not be so bad for him. So you've been betting your entire career on one thesis, which is, you know, the physical gold will face more demand and the price will continue to go up. But we've seen some correction of the gold prices recently. What if you're wrong? What if the world doesn't need that much gold? You know I not even that big a fan of gold or silver necessarily in normal times But the issues we are facing now are issues which we created for 40 50 years When I started Silver Bullion, in many ways, it was because I was upset. I was upset at European and American politicians because we had strong countries, especially in Europe. Most people now said their kids are going to be worse off than their parents. We have pension systems which cannot be funded. In Europe, same thing in the US. We have Medicare. Our infrastructure is decaying. So many bad decisions was made. Things are bad. These problems need to be solved for there not to be a crisis. But there is no way of solving them. You created this over 40 years. All my life experience, living and growing up in Europe in the United States and coming to Singapore ultimately, has basically taught me that we're in a period of decline in the West and there has to be this reset. So I don't see any scenario where this can be solved other than through a crisis. And if the crisis is coming what do you hold Gold and silver makes sense Now there are different phases in history when gold and silver is not that interesting Between 1982 to 2007 gold was quite boring There was a time when the US dollar was strong, stock markets boomed, economy was doing quite well overall, and gold only appreciated maybe 2-3%. Now, gold will always appreciate because you're measuring it in US dollars and they're always going to print more money, even in good times. It's just when you go into a crisis period Then it's going to go up in value a lot more So even if the worst case scenario doesn't happen Gold and silver is still not going to be a bad investment But assuming such big crisis and a systemic crisis will happen And I don't see any way how it cannot happen Then it's very important for people to own at least a little bit of gold and silver This behind the more big picture is Singapore is in the world's exchange of exchange and exchange of exchange. The construction of the gold-based foundation has a sense of strategy. It has a sense of the exchange of exchange and exchange of exchange. Who can be able to be in the new秩序 of the new秩序? There is a saying, two is one, one is none. Meaning that the gold or silver you put in a jurisdiction like this it meant to be your backup plan So in case things go wrong have a little bit here have a little bit here所以这会有很多的意思可能在过去我认为新加坡不是太多的金钱而它变得更加 popular它只能让金钱或金钱进入金钱那么在片子的最后我们必须要声明我们的节目不构成任何的投资建议Gregor Gregson作为私人金库的创始人他对黄金和白银价格的看多以及对宏观经济的判断本身和他压制的业务是强相关的所以也请大家理性地看待这期节目他的观点我们也只是从一个信仰黄金作为安全资产的角度给大家展示一下这一派人物他们的想法和信念而对于Gregson本人他是一个从德国到意大利到美国再到新加坡的人他形成了一套自己独特的世界观并且用几乎半生的经历和这座金库物理性的表达了他对这个世界的判断你完全可以不同意他但是呢The Reserve 88%的储存订单增量是实施90%的新订单来自海外也是实施也许最值得我们思考的不是黄金能够涨多少而是呢Gragerson反复提到的那句格言2 is one and one is none那么这句话呢出自于美国海报突击队 [40:00] 强调的是如果你只带了一件关键的装备ONE那一旦它坏了你就陷入了零NOM的一个劲敌如果你带了两件那么其中的一件坏了你手里面还有一个ONE可以持续的战斗那么这座金库想要传递出来的信号是面对未来的不确定性大家可以想想两件装备和PLAN B的备用方案那它可以不是黄金它可以是其他你认为任何安全的信用资产但是呢把鸡蛋放在不同的篮子里面这件事情至少呢对一些人来说正在变得越来越重要了好了那么以上就是这期视频的全部内容了我是陈倩你们的留言点赞和转发是支持我们贵国101做好深度科技和商业内容的最佳动力那我们就下期视频再见了Bye