Charts of the Week: Semiconductor Valuations, Demand for Physical Experiences, and Gen-Z Entrepreneurship

Charts of the Week: Semiconductor Valuations, Demand for Physical Experiences, and Gen-Z Entrepreneurship This edition analyzes the valuation disconnect in the booming semiconductor industry, shifts in consumer spending toward physical experiences despite declining venue availability, and the rise of Gen-Z small business creation aided by artificial intelligence. Semiconductors account for just under 50% of expected S&P earnings growth, yet forward price-to-earnings multiples remain near the 10-year average of roughly 19.7x to 21x. Micron is trading at approximately 6x earnings despite projected 60% year-over-year earnings growth and gross margins nearly triple its five-year average. Per-capita third places have dropped by a third to a half since 2000, but spending on experiences has tripled since 2024, and late-night weekend retail foot traffic exceeds pre-pandemic levels. Gen-Z business applications doubled year-over-year in March, shrinking the Gen-X to Gen-Z formation ratio from about 26:1 in 2020 to 4:1 in 2026. A Cleveland Fed survey reports that 71% of responding small businesses saw productivity increases from deploying AI. Semiconductor Valuations and Cyclicality Driven by hyperscaler artificial intelligence capital expenditures, chipmakers represent nearly half of expected S&P earnings growth. Despite this, forward multiples for the sector remain historically average at approximately 19.5x to 21x, on par with the slow-growth healthcare sector. Micron trades at around 6x earnings despite consensus forecasts of roughly 60% earnings growth. Investors appear wary of the semiconductor industry's historical cyclicality, fearing that current supply shortages and high memory margins will eventually transform into an oversupplied glut as customers optimize efficiency and capacity expands. Surge in Real-Life Experiences and Foot Traffic While physical social venues such as bars, bowling alleys, and movie theaters per capita have fallen by one-third to one-half since 2000, consumer demand for in-person experiences has accelerated. Experience spending has tripled since 2024, outpacing general service spending by roughly three to one. Placer.ai data shows that while daytime retail traffic has diminished alongside e-commerce reaching roughly 30% penetration, retail foot traffic on Friday and Saturday nights—and between 8 p.m. and midnight generally—has climbed above 2019 levels as people seek in-person connection. Gen-Z Small Business Formation and AI Tooling New business applications among Gen-Z more than doubled year-over-year in March. While Gen-X still starts the majority of businesses, the ratio of Gen-X to Gen-Z formations narrowed from roughly 26:1 in 2020 to about 4:1 in 2026. This entrepreneurial wave aligns with rising adoption of artificial intelligence by lean small enterprises; according to a Cleveland Fed survey, 71% of small businesses using AI cited increased productivity, while 39% and 31% reported gains in quality and sales, respectively.

本周图表：半导体估值为何受限、线下体验需求回升与Z世代创业潮 本期Newsletter通过图表分析了三大商业与社会趋势：尽管AI资本支出带来亮眼利润，半导体板块市盈率依然回归历史均值；虽然线下社交场所持续减少，但体验型消费与夜间客流正在反弹；此外，Z世代新企业申请激增，小微企业正在利用AI提效。 标普500预期利润增长中近50%由半导体贡献，但该板块前向市盈率仅约19.5x至21x，接近10年平均水平，甚至与医疗健康板块相近。 美光等芯片股业绩预期增幅高达近60%，但截至7月21日前向市盈率仅约6x，反映出市场对半导体周期见顶、产能过剩风险及内存使用效率提升的担忧。 世纪之交以来人均线下聚会场所减少三分之一至二分之一，但近期体验类消费增速达服务类整体增速的约3倍，周五和周六晚间零售街区客流也高于2019年水平。 美国银行数据显示3月Z世代新企业申请量同比翻倍，与Gen-X的申请比例从2020年的约26:1降至2026年的约4:1；克利夫兰联储调查显示71%受访小企业表示AI提高了生产率。 半导体估值与周期性担忧 超大规模云服务商持续将自由现金流与债务投入AI计算基建，带动芯片股业绩暴涨，标普500近半数利润增长预计来自半导体。然而，该板块前向市盈率目前仅维持在10年均值（约19.7x）附近的19.5x至21x，甚至接近长期平稳的医疗板块。美光等公司预期利润增幅近60%，交易倍数却仅约6x。其核心原因在于投资者担心半导体行业的传统周期性见顶：扩产耗时耗资且往往导致未来产能过剩，客户也在积极寻求提高内存使用效率，导致市场对高利润率能否持久持怀疑态度。 线下社交场所缩减与体验消费回潮 自本世纪初以来，酒吧、保龄球馆、码头和影院等线下聚集场所的人均数量下降了三分之一至二分之一。但数据显示，消费者在体验上的支出增长在2024年后大幅提速，达到服务类整体支出的约3倍。根据Placer.ai的客流统计，电商渗透率达约30%导致日间客流下滑，但周五与周六晚间（特别是20点至24点时段）零售街区的客流已超过2019年疫情前水平，反映出线上购物普及后人们外出社交聚集的强烈意愿。 Z世代创业加速与小微企业AI应用 美国小企业呈现出AI赋能与轻雇佣扩张的特征，其中Z世代成为新企业申请增速最快的群体。美国银行数据显示，3月Z世代企业申请量同比翻倍以上，虽然基数较小，但与Gen-X的比例已从2020年的约26:1迅速收窄至约4:1。其背后动因可能是初入职场就业环境承压，也可能是AI原生代主动创业。克利夫兰联储的调查进一步显示，71%的小微企业受访者认为AI提升了生产率，39%和31%分别认为AI改善了产品质量并促进了销售。

[America](https://www.a16z.news/t/america) | [Tech](https://www.a16z.news/t/technology) | [Opinion](https://www.a16z.news/t/opinion) | [Culture](https://www.a16z.news/t/culture) | [Charts](https://www.a16z.news/t/charts) It’s pretty much [common knowledge](https://www.a16z.news/i/199609775/retail-to-the-moon) at this point that [chips have been the “AI trade.”](https://www.a16z.news/i/190767247/2-its-an-atoms-world-and-bits-are-just-livin-in-it) First, it was Nvidia’s GPUs (and the related players in that supply chain), and then it broadened out CPUs, too, but [especially memory](https://www.a16z.news/i/197696912/memory-to-the-moon). The reason is pretty straightforward: all that AI capex. Hyperscalers have been pouring their free cashflow (and, [more recently, debt](https://www.a16z.news/i/199609775/borrowing-bigly-for-ai)) into the computational infrastructure necessary to meet the computational demands of AI. That huge demand impulse has led to a [generational run for the broader semiconductor industry](https://www.a16z.news/i/194432199/goldman-wonders-is-tech-cheap-now), where demand has outpaced supply, leading to both historic growth and pricing power. Those are the sorts of things that investors like, and they’ve responded accordingly. Just under 50% of the S&P’s earnings growth is expected to come from semis alone. AI Capex has been an earnings bonanza for the chipmakers. With all that earnings growth, you’d think that semi multiples would re-rate in kind. And while they certainly did, for a bit, that’s no longer the case. Multiples for the semis sector are actually right around their 10 year average, and even dropped slightly below: This chart was compiled a few weeks ago, when Forward P/E for semis was at \~19.5x, slightly below the 19.7x that the industry has averaged, including the 6 years before all this AI capex really began. As of earlier this week, the industry multiple had nudged higher to something closer to 21x (depending on how you calculate it, since semis don’t report as a group). But in all events, for an industry on an historic run, forward multiples are historically unremarkable. By way of comparison, recent semis multiples are not all that different than the very slow n’ steady healthcare sector: Healthcare has been trading at more or less the same prices since 2013 (with some intervening wiggles), but recently crossed paths with the hottest hardware in the world. Healthcare and semiconductors. These are the same, apparently. If you dig beneath the aggregate industry-level picture, the story is even more peculiar: Some of the biggest names in the semiconductor industry are valued at-or-below the industry average—despite consensus analyst expectations for earnings growth (on a calendar year basis) running from \~20% to 60%. Micron, the crown jewel of the memory shortage, especially stands out. Analysts expect earnings to grow nearly 60% yoy, but as of July 21 the memory-maker was trading at just about \~6x earnings, the lowest in the batch! So, why does it appear that semis are suddenly cheap? If there’s such a bottleneck around memory specifically, why does the premium appear so low? Well, there too, the answer is pretty straightforward. [Investors are wondering whether semis can keep it up.](https://www.a16z.news/p/charts-of-the-week-reflections-from) Chips are a [historically cyclical industry](https://www.a16z.news/i/196007704/first-semis-then-software), and it’s the nature of cyclical industries to have peaks and valleys. We’re in the peak, so surely the valley must be right around the corner (so the story goes). It’s also partly why those industries tend not to ramp up supply even when it appears like there’s a shortage: because they’ve been around long enough to know that every shortage eventually becomes a glut. Bringing new chip-making supply online takes time and a lot of money, and the concern is that by the time all the new supply is online, demand will have waned (leaving a lot of slack capacity in its wake). The energy industry knows this perhaps best of all. Plus, as it pertains to memory especially, it’s never really been that expensive before, but since necessity is the mother of invention, plenty of memory customers are now highly motivated to figure out how to get more memory-efficient. That’s yet another reason why at least some investors are wondering how long the run can last. Consider just how unusual memory’s pricing power happens to be right now: Napkin math says Micron’s gross margins are almost three times higher than its previous 5-year average. Those margins reflect a dramatic supply-demand imbalance in Micron’s favor, but again, the question is: how long can it last? Sure, “this time is different,” but how different and for how long? Analysts seem to think the answer is “a good while longer,” but for now at least, the market appears to be less convinced. There was a brief moment in the thick of the pandemic lockdown when some people boldly predicted that people would never hang out in-person again. Social and professional interaction would be forever remote, everything would be virtual, and the future would be grimly animated avatars, mingling in Sim-style boardrooms and “common areas.” It got to the point that established businesses were paying millions of dollars for “real estate” in the metaverse to frontrun the inevitable shift to the global simulacrum. Obviously, the Snow Crash future hasn’t arrived (not yet, at least), but the prediction was prescient in at least one sense: venues for irl socialization are, in fact, in serial decline: The number of hang-out places per-capita has declined anywhere from a half to a third since the turn of the century. Fewer bars, fewer bowling alleys, fewer marinas and fewer movie theaters—query who hangs out in a marina, and other than movie theaters, the pandemic does not appear to have materially impacted the decline, but either way, the point stands: irl gathering places are in short(er) supply. The thing is, however, there’s some data that suggests that *recently*, at least, demand for irl experiences has surged. Whether it’s an emerging social phenomenon, or simply the rising cost of airfare, hospitality and dining out, consumer spending on experiences has accelerated far more quickly than spending on the broader category of services: Consumer spending growth on experiences has \~tripled since 2024, and is similarly running \~3x the growth of service-spending more generally. It’s not just consumer spending data that tells the “experiences so hot rn” story. Foot-traffic data from [Placer.ai](http://placer.ai) points in a similar direction: getting out on the town, in public, with people, is very much en vogue. If you look at foot-traffic to retail corridors, there are only two times of the week where people appear to be visiting more than they did before the pandemic: Friday and Saturday nights have experienced a moderate increase in retail foot-traffic relative to 2019—that stands in contrast to every other day (and time of day) where fewer people appear to be milling around retail corridors than before. On a yoy basis, the trend is even more pronounced: foot-traffic for the 8-12pm block (and only the 8-12pm block) is higher across the board. It’s hard to imagine why nighttimes (and especially weekend nighttimes) would be busier, if not for an inclination to socialize. Retail shopping as a whole has increasingly moved online, with ecomm penetration climbing steadily to \~30%—which is consistent with the daytime decline in retail corridor foot-traffic. If you need to shop, you’re increasingly doing it online. But, if the point isn’t to shop, but rather hang out with friends, then window shopping after work and/or a weekend night out on the town is apparently more popular than ever. People are so desperate to get off their couch and away from their monitors, that the Mandalorian and Grogu inspired the biggest above-trend trip to the movies for the year: Memorial Day may have had something to do with it, but either way, in the two weeks following Grogu’s big screen debut, trips to the movies were \~80% higher than the weekly average. Perhaps it won’t last, and there’s still no accounting for taste, but while AI may ultimately disrupt a whole slew of incumbent businesses, if there is one secular theme that AI cannot disrupt—looking at you, AI girlfriend—it’s demand for actual human connectivity and experiences. We’ve written previously about the recent surge in small business formation, and the potential rise of the AI-enabled solopreneur. Yes, [more businesses are being formed](https://www.a16z.news/i/191479972/3-rise-of-the-ai-native-small-business), yes, [they tend to be “low propensity to hire,”](https://www.a16z.news/i/191479972/3-rise-of-the-ai-native-small-business) yes, [they appear to be growing more quickly than before](https://www.a16z.news/i/203608554/ai-startups-running-lean), and yes, [the fastest growers](https://www.a16z.news/i/200478177/ai-smb-power-users) appear to [invest more in technology than the others](https://www.a16z.news/i/191479972/3-rise-of-the-ai-native-small-business). That’s not a definitive case for the AI-enabled solopreneur, but one might say the data is triangulating. Here’s another wrinkle on that theme. According to data from BofA, Gen-Z specifically is increasing new business applications more so than any other generation: In March, Gen-Z new business applications more than doubled relative to the year prior. To be fair, Gen-Z new businesses are increasing off a relatively small base, but as a share of total, Gen-Z is taking a larger share of the pie: Gen-X is still responsible for the lion’s share of new businesses, but the ratio of Gen-X to Gen-Z formations has gone from \~26:1 in 2020 to just \~4:1 in 2026. What accounts for the Gen-Z surge in entrepreneurship? It’s hard to say. It could be an AI-native generation putting technology to work, or it could be a byproduct [of a tough job market for entry-level hires](https://www.a16z.news/i/191479972/1-its-a-tough-job-market-for-young-people-knowledge-worker-or-otherwise) (or some combination thereof, or something else entirely). In all events, it remains the case that small businesses do appear to be deploying AI to meaningful effect: According to the Cleveland Fed’s small business survey, 71% of respondents said AI increased productivity, while 39% and 31% said AI increased quality and sales, respectively. Take that for what you will, but for now, we’ll add it to the AI-driven small business renaissance file. If Gen-Z is joining the party, then we’re here for it. *This newsletter is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. 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